Our (technical) predictive charts think TMHC stock has bounced off a major point of control and will almost certainly return to test that level which is around 59.00. Therefore, we see 59.00 as the proper buy entry point for a buy position. Other factors described in this writeup show the company has fairly strong conservative financials and support from analysts. The main problem is what some see as a glut in the housing market and the beginning of a corrective real estate price cycle. TMHC is catering to middle class often first-time home buyers rather than the luxury class with smaller lots and "cookie cutter" houses where many look similar in neighborhoods, or at least that is our imprfession.   As the economy is slowly destroyed by Republicans in Congress who are not doing their job properly, and favoring the very rich at the expense of the middle class, a real estate price collapse is a valid concern. We think Taylor Morrison has weathered similar concerns in the not-to-distant past and that real assets continue to be one's best hedge against inflation caused by current government mismanagement to an extreme degree with a real threat of economic collapse in the wings. But as it is a question of "When", not "if", in the meantime the market says otherwise.

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General Overview

Our principal business is residential homebuilding and the development of lifestyle communities with operations across 11 states. We provide an assortment of homes across a wide range of price points to appeal to an array of consumer groups. We design, build and sell single and multi-family detached and attached homes in traditionally high growth markets for entry level, move-up, and resort lifestyle buyers. We operate under various brand names including Taylor Morrison, Darling Homes Collection by Taylor Morrison, and Esplanade. We also have a “Build-to-Rent” homebuilding business which operates under the Yardly brand name. In addition, we develop and construct multi-use properties consisting of commercial space, retail, and multi-family properties under the Urban Form brand name. We also have operations which provide financial services to customers through our wholly owned mortgage subsidiary, TMHF, title services through our wholly owned title services subsidiary, Inspired Title, and homeowner’s insurance policies through our insurance agency, TMIS. Our business is organized into multiple homebuilding operating components, and a financial services component, all of which are managed as four reportable segments: East, Central, West and Financial Services, as follows:

East
Atlanta, Charlotte, Jacksonville, Naples, Orlando, Raleigh, Sarasota, and Tampa

Central
Austin, Dallas, Denver, and Houston

West
Bay Area, Las Vegas, Phoenix, Portland, Sacramento, Seattle, and Southern California


Financial Services
Taylor Morrison Home Funding, Inspired Title Services, and Taylor Morrison Insurance Services


Annual Overview and Business Strategy

We benefit from a well-balanced, diverse mix of our portfolio and operating strategy. We have expanded our market footprint and product positioning through homebuilder acquisitions and smart organic growth and serve a broad range of consumers. We have a dynamic and flexible operating strategy that allows us to serve our consumers and respond to market conditions, community by community to maximize our financial performance. Since interest rates began rising in early 2022, this flexible but prudent approach has driven important shifts in our pricing strategies, financing incentives, starts volume and land investments as we adapted to the changing market environment to minimize risk and recalibrate affordability, while maintaining strong performance metrics including gross margin.

We continuously adjusted pricing across our portfolio based on market conditions to drive sales while also protecting the value of our backlog. Pricing adjustments are utilized in a variety of ways including finance incentives, adjustments to the pricing of lot premiums, and options and upgrades, and in some instances base price adjustments. Each community’s buyer profile mix of adjustments is dependent on its backlog, inventory, duration, and competitive dynamics.

Our balance sheet remained strong for the year ended December 31, 2023, with over $1.8 billion in total liquidity. We believe we have a balanced capital allocation approach and continue to allocate capital and manage our land portfolio to acquire assets that have attractive characteristics, including good access to schools, shopping, recreation and transportation facilities. In connection with our overall land inventory management and investment process, our management team reviews these considerations, as well as other financial metrics, in order to decide the highest and best use of our capital.

Factors Affecting Comparability of Results

For the years ended December 31, 2023 and 2022, we recognized $11.8 million and $24.9 million in inventory impairment charges. Impairment charges are recorded to Cost of home closings or Cost of land closings on the Consolidated statement of operations. For the year ended December 31, 2021, no such impairment charges were incurred.

For the year ended December 31, 2023 we paid a $64.7 million legal settlement relating to an existing claim. The charge was recorded to Other expense, net on the Consolidated statement of operations.  No similar substantial charges were recorded for the years ended December 31, 2022 and 2021.

For the years ended December 31, 2023, 2022, and 2021, we recognized $4.2 million, $33.2 million, and $7.6 million in pre-acquisition abandonment charges, respectively. These charges are recorded to Other expense, net on the Consolidated statement of operations.

For the year ended December 31, 2022, we recognized a gain of $14.5 million related to land transferred to unconsolidated joint ventures. This gain is recorded in Other expense, net on the Consolidated statements of operations. For the years ended December 31, 2023 and 2021, we did not realize such gains.

For the years ended December 31, 2023 and 2022, we recognized $0.3 million of loss on extinguishment of debt and a $13.9 million of gain on extinguishment of debt, respectively. For the year ended December 31, 2021, we did not incur a gain or loss on extinguishment of debt.

For the years ended December 31, 2023,  2022, and 2021 we recognized $17.1 million, $4.8 million, and $9.6 million in insurance losses relating to Beneva Indemnity Company ("Beneva"), respectively. Such losses are included in Other expense, net on the Consolidated statement of operations.

For the year ended December 31, 2022, we recognized $14.7 million of expense relating to the impairment of our investment in one of our unconsolidated joint ventures. This charge is included in Net (income)/loss from unconsolidated entities on the Consolidated statement of operations. For the years ended December 31, 2023 and 2021, no such impairment charges were incurred.

Critical Accounting Policies and Estimates

General

The discussion and analysis of our financial condition and results of operations is based upon our consolidated financial statements, which have been prepared in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles in the United States (“GAAP”). The preparation of these financial statements requires management to make estimates and judgments that affect the reported amounts of assets and liabilities, revenue and expenses, and related disclosures of contingent assets and liabilities at the date of our financial statements. Actual results may differ from these estimates under different assumptions or conditions, impacting our reported results of operations and financial condition.

Certain accounting policies involve significant judgments and assumptions by management, which have a material impact on the carrying value of assets and liabilities and the recognition of income and expenses. The estimates and assumptions used by management are based on historical experience and other factors, which are believed to be reasonable under the circumstances. The significant accounting policies that management believes are the most critical to aid in fully understanding and evaluating our reported financial results are described below.

Revenue Recognition

Revenue is recognized in accordance with Accounting Standards Codification (“ASC”) Topic 606, Revenue from Contracts with Customers. The standard’s core principle requires an entity to recognize revenue when it transfers promised goods or services to customers in an amount that reflects the consideration to which an entity expects to be entitled in exchange for those goods or services.

Home and Land Closings Revenue

Under ASC 606, the following steps are applied to determine home closings revenue and land closings revenue recognition: (1) identify the contract(s) with our customer; (2) identify the performance obligations in the contract; (3) determine the transaction price; (4) allocate the transaction price to the performance obligations in the contract; and (5) recognize revenue when (or as) the performance obligation(s) are satisfied. Our home sales transactions, have one contract, with one performance obligation, with each customer to build and deliver a home (or develop and deliver land). Based on the application of the five steps, the following summarizes the timing and manner of home and land sales revenue:

•	Revenue from closings of residential real estate is recognized when the buyer has made the required minimum down payment, obtained necessary financing, the risks and rewards of ownership are transferred to the buyer, and we have no continuing involvement with the property, which is generally upon the close of escrow. Revenue is reported net of any discounts and incentives.

•	Revenue from land sales is recognized when a significant down payment is received, title passes and collectability of the receivable, if any, is reasonably assured, and we have no continuing involvement with the property, which is generally upon the close of escrow.

Amenity and Other Revenue

We own and operate certain amenities such as golf courses, club houses, and fitness centers, which require us to provide club members with access to the facilities in exchange for the payment of club dues. We collect club dues and other fees from club members, which are invoiced on a monthly basis. Revenue from our golf club operations is also included in amenity and other revenue. Amenity and other revenue also includes revenue from our Urban Form operations and Build-to-Rent operations.

Financial Services Revenue

Mortgage operations and hedging activity related to financial services are not within the scope of Topic 606 and are recognized at the time the related real estate transactions are completed, usually upon the close of escrow. Generally, the loans TMHF originates are sold to third party investors within a short period of time, on a non-recourse basis. Gains and losses from the sale of mortgages are recognized in accordance with ASC Topic 860-20, Sales of Financial Assets. TMHF generally does not have continuing involvement with the transferred assets; therefore, we derecognize the mortgage loans at time of sale, based on the difference between the selling price and carrying value of the related loans upon sale, recording a gain/loss on sale in the period of sale. Also included in Financial services revenue/expenses is the realized and unrealized gains and losses from hedging instruments. ASC Topic 815-25, Derivatives and Hedging, requires that all hedging instruments be recognized as assets or liabilities on the Balance sheet at their fair value. We do not meet the criteria for hedge accounting; therefore, we account for these instruments as free-standing derivatives, with changes in fair value recognized in Financial services revenue/expenses on the Consolidated statement of operations in the period in which they occur.

Real Estate Inventory Valuation and Costing

Inventory consists of raw land, land under development, homes under construction, completed homes, and model homes, all of which are stated at cost. In addition to direct carrying costs, we also capitalize interest, real estate taxes, and related development costs that benefit the entire community, such as field construction supervision and
related direct overhead. Vertical construction costs are accumulated and charged to Cost of home closings at the time of home closing using the specific identification method. Land acquisition, development, interest, and real estate taxes are allocated to homes and units generally using the relative sales value method. Generally, all overhead costs relating to our materials procurement process, the vertical construction, and construction utilities are considered overhead costs and are allocated on a per unit basis. These costs are capitalized to inventory from the point development begins to the point construction is completed. Changes in estimated costs to be incurred in a community are generally allocated to the remaining lots on a prospective basis. For those communities that have been temporarily closed or development has been discontinued, we do not allocate interest or other costs to the community’s inventory until activity resumes. Such costs are expensed as incurred.

The life cycle of the community generally ranges from two to five years, commencing with the acquisition of unentitled or entitled land, continuing through the land development phase and concluding with the sale, construction and delivery of homes. Actual community lives will vary based on the size of the community, the sales absorption rate and whether we purchased the property as raw land or as finished lots.

We capitalize qualifying interest costs to inventory during the development and construction periods. Capitalized interest is charged to Cost of home closings when the related inventory is charged to Cost of home closings.

We assess the recoverability of our inventory in accordance with the provisions of ASC Topic 360, Property, Plant, and Equipment. We review our real estate inventory for indicators of impairment on a community-level basis during each reporting period. If indicators of impairment are present for a community, an undiscounted cash flow analysis is generally prepared in order to determine if the carrying value of the assets in that community exceeds the estimated undiscounted cash flows. Generally, if the carrying value of the assets exceeds their estimated undiscounted cash flows, the assets are potentially impaired, requiring a fair value analysis. Our determination of fair value is primarily based on a discounted cash flow model which includes projections and estimates relating to sales prices, construction costs, sales pace, and other factors. However, fair value can be determined through other methods, such as appraisals, contractual purchase offers, and other third party opinions of value. Changes in these expectations may lead to a change in the outcome of our impairment analysis, and actual results may also differ from our assumptions.

In certain cases, we may elect to cease development and/or marketing of an existing community if we believe the economic performance of the community would be maximized by deferring development for a period of time to allow for market conditions to improve. We refer to such communities as long-term strategic assets. The decision may be based on financial and/or operational metrics as determined by us. For those communities that have been temporarily closed or development has been discontinued, we do not allocate interest or other costs to the community’s inventory until activity resumes and such costs are expensed as incurred. If we decide to cease development, we will evaluate the project for impairment and then cease future development and marketing activity until such a time when we believe that market conditions have improved and economic performance can be maximized. Our assessment of the carrying value of our long-term strategic assets typically includes subjective estimates of future performance, including the timing of when development will recommence, the type of product to be offered, and the margin to be realized. In the future, some of these inactive communities may be re-opened while others may be sold.

In the ordinary course of business, we enter into land purchase agreements with various sellers to acquire lots. Real estate not owned under these agreements is reflected in Consolidated real estate not owned with a corresponding liability in Liabilities attributable to consolidated real estate not owned in the Consolidated balance sheets. As a method of acquiring land in staged takedowns, while limiting risk and minimizing the use of funds from our available cash or other financing sources, we may transfer our right under certain specific performance agreements to entities owned by third parties (“land banking arrangements”). These entities use equity contributions from their owners and/or incur debt to finance the acquisition and development of the land. We incur interest expense on these arrangements. Interest is based on remaining lots to be purchased and is capitalized for the percentage of lots in each project actively under development, with the remainder expensed and included in Interest (income)/expense,
net on the Consolidated statement of operations. The entities grant us an option to acquire lots in staged takedowns in return for a non-significant, non-refundable cash deposit. We are not legally obligated to purchase the lots, but would forfeit any existing deposits and could be subject to financial and other penalties if the lots are not purchased. We do not have an ownership interest in these entities or title to their assets and do not guarantee their liabilities. As such, these entities are not consolidated. These land banking arrangements help us manage the financial and market risk associated with land holdings.

In some locations where we act as a developer, we occasionally purchase land that includes commercially zoned parcels or areas designated for school or government use, which we typically sell to commercial developers or municipalities, as applicable. We also sell residential lots or land parcels to manage our land and lot supply on larger tracts of land. Land is considered held for sale once it meets all criteria in accordance with ASC 360 Property, Plant and Equipment. Land held for sale is recorded at the lower of cost or fair value less costs to sell. In determining the value of land held for sale, we consider recent offers received, prices for land in recent comparable sales transactions, and other factors. We record fair value adjustments for land held for sale within Cost of land closings on the Consolidated statement of operations.

INSURANCE COSTS, SELF-INSURANCE RESERVES AND WARRANTY RESERVES

We have certain deductible limits for each of our policies under our workers’ compensation, automobile, and general liability insurance policies, and we record warranty expense and liabilities for the estimated costs of potential claims for construction defects. The excess liability limits are aggregated annually and applied in excess of automobile liability, employer’s liability under workers compensation and general liability policies. We also generally require our subcontractors and design professionals to indemnify us and provide evidence of insurance for liabilities arising from their work, subject to certain limitations. We are the parent of Beneva, which provides insurance coverage for construction defects discovered up to ten years following the close of a home, coverage for premise operations risk, and from time to time, property damage. We accrue for the expected costs associated with the deductibles and self-insured amounts under our various insurance policies based on historical claims, estimates for claims incurred but not reported, and potential for recovery of costs from insurance and other sources. The estimates are subject to significant variability due to factors, such as claim settlement patterns, litigation trends, and the extended period of time in which a construction defect claim might be made after the closing of a home.

We offer a one-year limited warranty to cover various defects in workmanship or materials, a two-year limited warranty on certain systems (such as electrical or cooling systems), and a ten-year limited warranty on structural defects. In addition, any outstanding warranties which were offered by our acquired companies are also honored. Warranty reserves are established as homes close in an amount estimated to be adequate to cover expected costs of materials and outside labor during warranty periods. Our warranty is not considered a separate deliverable in the sales arrangement since it is not priced apart from the home; therefore, it is accounted for in accordance with ASC Topic 450, Contingencies, which states that warranties that are not separately priced are generally accounted for by accruing the estimated costs to fulfill the warranty obligation. The amount of revenue related to the product is recognized in full upon the delivery of the home if all other criteria for revenue recognition have been met. As a result, we accrue the estimated costs to fulfill the warranty obligation at the time a home closes, as a component of Cost of home closings on the Consolidated statements of operations.

Our loss reserves for self-insured claims insured by Beneva are based on factors that include an actuarial study for structural, historical and anticipated claims, trends related to similar product types, number of home closings, and geographical areas. We also provide third-party warranty coverage on homes where required by FHA or VA lenders. We regularly review the reasonableness and adequacy of our reserves and make adjustments to the balance of the preexisting reserves to reflect changes in trends and historical data as information becomes available. Self-insurance and warranty reserves are included in Accrued expenses and other liabilities in the Consolidated balance sheets.

We have not made any material changes in our methodology or significant assumptions used to establish our warranty reserves during these periods. In the event of a specific claim such as a construction defect for a community, we adjust our reserves accordingly, taking into consideration items such as the number of homes affected, the costs associated with each repair and the effectiveness of the repairs. Due to the degree of judgment required in making these estimates and the inherent uncertainty in potential outcomes, it is reasonably possible that actual costs could differ from those recorded and such differences could be material, resulting in a change in future estimated reserves.

INVESTMENTS IN UNCONSOLIDATED ENTITIES AND VARIABLE INTEREST ENTITIES

We are involved in joint ventures with independent third parties for real estate development, homebuilding and mortgage lending activities. We use the equity method of accounting for entities over which we exercise significant influence but do not have a controlling interest over the operating and financial policies of the investee. For unconsolidated entities in which we function as the managing member, we have evaluated the rights held by our joint venture partners and determined that they have substantive participating rights that preclude the presumption of control. For these unconsolidated joint ventures, our share of net earnings or losses is included in Net (income)/loss from unconsolidated entities on the Consolidated statement of operations when earned and distributions are credited against our Investment in unconsolidated entities on the Consolidated balance sheets when received.

We evaluate our investments in unconsolidated joint ventures for indicators of impairment semi-annually. A series of operating losses of an investee or other factors may indicate that a decrease in value of our investment in the unconsolidated entity has occurred which is other-than-temporary. The amount of impairment recognized, if any, is the excess of the investment’s carrying amount over its estimated fair value. Additionally, we consider various qualitative factors to determine if a decrease in the value of the investment is other-than-temporary. These factors include age of the venture, stage in its life cycle, intent and ability to recover our investment in the unconsolidated entity, financial condition and long-term prospects of the unconsolidated entity, short-term liquidity needs of the unconsolidated entity, trends in the general economic environment of the land, entitlement status of the land held by the unconsolidated entity, overall projected returns on investment, defaults under contracts with third parties (including bank debt), recoverability of the investment through future cash flows and relationships with the other partners. If we believe that the decline in the fair value of the investment is temporary, then no impairment is recorded.

In the ordinary course of business, we enter into land purchase contracts, lot option contracts and land banking arrangements in order to procure land or lots for the construction of homes. Such contracts enable us to control significant lot positions with a minimal initial capital investment and substantially reduce the risks associated with land ownership and development. In accordance with ASC Topic 810, Consolidation, we have concluded that when we enter into an option or purchase agreement to acquire land or lots and pay a non-refundable deposit, a VIE may be created because we are deemed to have provided subordinated financial support that will absorb some or all of an entity’s expected losses if they occur. If we are the primary beneficiary of the VIE, we consolidate the VIE in our Consolidated financial statements and reflect such assets and liabilities as Consolidated real estate not owned and Liabilities attributable to consolidated real estate not owned, respectively, in the Consolidated balance sheets.

VALUATION OF DEFERRED TAX ASSETS

We account for income taxes using the asset and liability method, which requires that deferred tax assets and liabilities be recognized based on future tax consequences of temporary differences between the financial statement carrying amounts of existing assets and liabilities and their respective tax bases. Deferred tax assets and liabilities are measured using enacted tax rates expected to apply in the years in which the temporary differences are expected to be recovered or settled. The effect on deferred tax assets and liabilities of a change in tax rates is recognized in
earnings in the period when the changes are enacted. Changes in existing federal and state tax laws and corporate income tax rates could affect future tax results and the realization of deferred tax assets over time.

In accordance with ASC Topic 740-10, Income Taxes, we evaluate our deferred tax assets by tax jurisdiction, including the benefit from net operating loss (“NOL”) carryforwards by tax jurisdiction, to determine if a valuation allowance is required. We must assess, using significant judgments, whether a valuation allowance should be established based on the consideration of all available evidence using a “more likely than not” standard with significant weight being given to evidence that can be objectively verified. This assessment considers, among other matters, the nature, frequency and severity of current and cumulative losses, forecasts of future profitability, the length of statutory carryforward periods, experience with operating losses and experience of utilizing tax credit carryforwards and tax planning alternatives. We have not made any material changes in our methodology used to establish our valuation allowance during these periods. If a specific event or transaction were to occur that impacts our valuation allowance, we would reassess the evidence and adjust the allowance accordingly. Although management believes our valuation allowance is reasonable, no assurance can be given that the final tax outcome of these matters will not be different from our current valuation of our deferred tax assets and it is reasonably possible that such differences could be material, resulting in a change in future valuations.