05-03-2019: Portland General Electric Company (POR): Interesting History

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Recommendation

Portland General Electric Company

"PGE" (Portland General Electric) ticker symbol "POR" is not to be confused with California's Pacific Gas & Electric, also sometimes referred to as "PGE." Oregon is one of the most environmental states in the U.S. Unlike its neighbor, Washington State, which was blessed by nature and cursed by man, Oregon resisted temptations to do over-logging and invite environmentally-unfriendly operations into its state. Planned in 1968 and completed in 1976, PGE's Trojan Nuclear Plant was one of the last to be built in the U.S., and one of the first to be totally demolished in 2006. It developed cracks in the cooling tower and ceased operations soon after it was built and decommissioned. Enron Corporation was also involved in PGE having acquired it for $3 billion in 1997. Enron destroyed one of the then "Big 8" accounting firms Arthur Andersen by having cooked books that went undetected, and after Enron went backrupt, it had trouble finding a buyer for PGE until 2003, for $.125 billion from Texas Pacific Group, an investment firm. There were a few management turnovers and debates about going public. Since then, the corporation has thrived on being a leader in environmental issues, especially the development of facilities to support electric vehicles including busses and trains on Portland's TriMet System.

This electric utility has been a reliable payer of dividends, currently around 2.8%. It has very mixed reviews from researchers and generally negative reviews from analysts. Certain major researchers we follow like Standard & Poor's, New Constructs, and Morningstar all have very negative reviews for POR.

POR has an upbeat website, indicates shareholder concern, and is touted by several researchers other than those specifically mentioned above. It's stock chart is very bullish, and it appears to be a buy and hold stock. But its Zenith Index is unacceptably low, and that indicates financial and fundamental problems echoed by some researchers. Institutions are net sellers by a small margin, but hedge funds are acquiring the stock.

A diversified portfolio should probably have some utilities in it, and POR is one of those we think might make a valuable addition.

Buyers of this stock should probably carefully time their entry looking for pullbacks, as this stock can be successfully traded. We think at some point it could fall back into the $46/share range. A lot depends upon its Oregon regulatory environment. Oregon does not have a sweetheart commission. Electric rates are somewhat lower than national averages due to availability of hydro and wind power. The company's website makes a great effort to explain "decoupling," a process of adjusting rates to accommodate home contributions to the grid through solar panels.



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Zenith Index

Under current market conditions, a Zenith Index Score of 1.20 or above is required for a positive rating on this factor. 1.21 -1.30 is considered acceptable, 1.30-1.40 is considered strong and
> 1.40 is considered exceptionally strong. Accounting statements in this section often contain mistakes, especially in earlier years' totals, but data is deemed sufficient for us to give a rating. More accurate financial statements follow in the next section.

Portland General Electric Company (POR)                   Exchange: NYSE
121 South West Salmon Street
Portland, OR 97204               Sector: Utilities
United States                    Industry: Utilities - Regulated Electric

Portland General Electric Company, an integrated electric utility
company, engages in the generation, wholesale purchase, transmission,
distribution, and retail sale of electricity in the state of Oregon. The
company operates seven thermal plants; seven hydroelectric plants; and
two wind farms. As of December 31, 2018, it owned an electric
transmission system consisting of 1,256 circuit miles, including 287
circuit miles of 500 kilovolt line, 410 circuit miles of 230 kilovolt
line, and 561 miles of 115 kilovolt line. It has 27,627 circuit miles of
distribution lines. The company also purchases and sells electricity and
natural gas in the wholesale market to utilities and power marketers in
the United States and Canada. It serves approximately 885,000
residential, commercial, and industrial customers. The company was
founded in 1930 and is headquartered in Portland, Oregon.

Last Trade:  51.72                           52-Week Range:  52.60 -  39.60
Employees: 2,967                             Avg.Volume:     607,496 Shares

Corporate Governance:
Pillar scores are Audit: 1; Board: 1; Shareholder Rights: 1; Compensation: 2.
         (A lower number means less governance risk.)

EPS:  2.47    Dividend Amount: $ 1.45          Yield:  2.80%
             Ex-Dividend Date: Jun 23, 2019    Payout Ratio:  60.23

Key Statistics:

    Trailing P/E:  21.05              Forward P/E (est.):  20.31
                                           Target Price:  48.00

Qrtly Stock Price Growth (yoy):  21.75%               Beta:   0.00
Qrtly S&P Index   Growth (yoy):  16.20%        Short Ratio:   0.86%
    Qrtly Revenue Growth (yoy):  11.14%         Shares Out:  89360000
   Qrtly Earnings Growth (yoy):  14.10%

          Book Value:  28.51                    Debt/Equity:  98.74%
    Price/Book Value:   1.82        Operating Profit Margin:  16.27%
         Price/Sales:   2.24                  Profit Margin:  10.67%
         Market Cap:   4,647,000,000       Return on Equity:   8.84%
    Enterprise Value:   7,080,000,000      Return on Assets:   2.66%

    Operating Cash Flow:    592,000,000
         Free Cash Flow:    -95,620,000


Annual Income Statement:                          (All numbers in thousands)
  Period Ending                             12/31/2018  12/31/2017  12/31/2016

  Total Revenue                              1,991,000   2,009,000   1,923,000
  Cost of Revenue                              863,000     901,000     903,000
  Gross Profit                               1,128,000   1,108,000   1,020,000

Operating Expenses:
  Research & Development                             0           0           0
  Selling, General & Administrative            292,000     267,000     252,000
  Non-Recurring Expenses                             0           0           0
  Other Operating Expenses                     129,000     123,000     119,000
  Total Operating Expenses                   1,666,000   1,636,000   1,595,000

Operating Income or Loss                       325,000     373,000     328,000

Income from Continuing Operations:
  Total Other Income/Expenses Net              -96,000    -100,000     -85,000
  Earnings Before Interest & Taxes             325,000     373,000     328,000
  Interest Expense                            -130,000    -126,000    -123,000
  Income Before Taxes                          229,000     273,000     243,000
  Income Tax Expense                            17,000      86,000      50,000
  Minority Interest                                  0           0           0

Net Income from Continuing Op.s                212,000     187,000     193,000

Non-recurring Events:
  Discontinued Operations                            0           0           0
  Extraordinary Items                                0           0           0
  Effect of Accounting Changes                       0           0           0
  Other Items                                        0           0           0
  Net Income                                   212,000     187,000     193,000
  Preferred Stock & Other Adjustments                0           0           0

Net Income Avail to Common Shares              212,000     187,000     193,000



Annual Cash Flow Statement:                   (All numbers in thousands)
  Period Ending                         12/31/2018    12/31/2017    12/31/2016

  Net Income                               212,000       187,000       193,000

Operating Activities:
  Depreciation                             382,000       345,000       321,000
  Adjustments to Net Income                 30,000        65,000        21,000
  Changes in Accounts Recv'bls             -29,000        -3,000        -9,000
  Changes in Liabilities                    51,000         5,000        15,000
  Changes in Investories                         0             0             0
  Changes in other Oper'g Acts             -16,000        -2,000        21,000

Total Cash Flow f Operations               630,000       597,000       562,000

Investing Activities:
  Capital Exenditures                     -595,000      -514,000      -584,000
  Investments                                    0             0             0
  Other Cash Flows fr Investing            124,000       124,000        -1,000

Total Cash Flows from Investing           -471,000      -514,000      -585,000

Financing Activities:
  Dividends Paid                          -125,000      -118,000      -110,000
  Sale of Purchase of Stock                      0             0             0
  Net Borrowings                            51,000        75,000       151,000
  Other Cash Flows fr Financing             -5,000        -7,000        -1,000

Total Cash Flows from Financing            -79,000       -50,000        25,000

  Effect of Exchange Rate Chg                    0             0             0

Change in Cash & Cash Equiv.                80,000        33,000         2,000



Annual Balance Sheets:                              (All Numbers in Thousands)
  Period Ending                          12/31/2018    12/31/2017    12/31/2016
Current Assets:
  Cash & Cash Equivalents                   119,000        39,000         6,000
  Short Term Investments                          0             0             0
  Net Receivables                           289,000       274,000       262,000
  Inventory                                  84,000        78,000        82,000
  Other Current Assets                       97,000        85,000        65,000
  Total Current Assets                      589,000       476,000       415,000

  Long-Term Investments                           0             0             0
  Property, Plant & Equipt                6,474,000     6,430,000     6,119,000
  Goodwill                                        0             0             0
  Intangible Assets                         413,000       311,000       315,000
  Accumulated Amortization                        0             0             0
  Other Assets                              580,000       571,000       630,000
  Deferred LT Asset Charges                       0             0             0

Total Assets                              8,110,000     7,838,000     7,527,000

Current Liabilities:
  Accounts Payable                          168,000       132,000       129,000
  Current Portion LT Debt                   304,000             0       150,000
  Other Current Liabilities                 224,000       213,000       221,000
  Total Current Liabilities                 791,000       432,000        577,000

  Long Term Debt                          2,178,000     2,426,000     2,200,000
  Other Liabilities                       2,588,000     2,564,000     2,406,000
  Deferred LT Liab. Charges                 401,000       438,000       498,000
  Minority Interest                               0             0             0
  Negative Goodwill                               0             0             0

Total Liabilities                         5,604,000     5,422,000     5,183,000

Stockholder Equity:
  Misc. Options, Warrants                         0             0             0
  Redeemable Preferred Stock                      0             0             0
  Preferred Stock                                 0             0             0
  Common Stock                            1,212,000     1,207,000     1,201,000
  Retained Earnings                       1,301,000     1,217,000     1,150,000
  Treasury Stock                             -7,000        -8,000        -7,000
  Capital Surplus                                 0             0             0
  Other Stockhohlder Equity                  -7,000        -8,000        -7,000
  Total Stockholder Equity                2,506,000     2,416,000     2,344,000

Net Tangible Assets                       2,093,000     2,105,000     2,029,000


Portland General Electric Company (POR)     [Indices near +3.0, near zero,
                                            or < zero bear special attention.]
P/E Ratio Tests:P/E Ratio < 28?            1.3302          P/E Ratio > 5?             1.0000
P/E Ratio Vs Growth Rate:  3.0000          Forward P/E Ratio < 28?    1.3786
Price/Sales Ratio < 2.3?   1.0268          Inventory/Sales < 5%?      1.1851
Sales < $1 Billion?        0.5023          Operating Margin < 7.5%?   0.4610

Balance Sheet Tests:
Debt/Equity < 0.40?        0.4051          Long-Term Debt Service:    1.1506
LTD Being Reduced?         3.0000          Short-Term Debt Service:  -2.5000
Current Ratio > 2?         0.3723          Working Capital >= 1.5?    2.0413
Leverage Ratio < 20%?      0.0541          Debt/Assets < 1?           3.0000
Quick Ratio > 1?           3.0000          Inventory Turnover > 1?    0.0504
Share Equity Increase:     2.0680          Market Cap.< 1.5 Billion?  0.3228
                                           Intangibles < 3% Assets?   0.5891
Income Tests:
Profit Margin < 7.5%?      1.4226          EPS Annual Growth > 10%?   0.0882
Dividend Yield > 2.0%?     0.7143          EPS 3-yr Growth > 15?      0.1366
Enterprise Value/Revenue   2.3350          EPS Growth Consistent?     0.0000
Enterprise Value/EBITDA:   3.0000          Collection < 45 days?      0.8494
EPS Qrtly Growth > 10%?    0.0071          Gross Pft/Cur. LTD > 1?    3.0000
                                           Borrowing Int. Rate < 6%? -1.0052
Stock Performance Tests:
Volatility > 25%?          0.9886          % Held by Insiders < 5%?   3.0000
Beta > 1.25?               0.0000          % Held by Institut. < 50?  0.5072
50 Da MA > 200 Da MA?      0.1781          % Held by Institut. > 30?  3.0000
52-Wk Change vs. S&P 500:  1.9524          Short Ratio > 5?           0.1720
Price/Book Value < 3?      1.6537          Short % of Float > 20?     0.0300
Return on Assets > 17%?    0.1565          Average Volume > 100,000?  3.0000

Cash Flow Tests:
Oper. C.F. > Lever'd C.F: -3.0000          Positive Free Cash Flow?  -1.0000
Positive Oper. Cash Flow?  3.0000          Price to C.F.Ratio < 14?:  3.0000
                                           Cash Flow / Assets > 10%?  1.4550

POR    Portland General Electric Company   Overall Zenith Index:      1.0630


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Financial Statements

PORTLAND GENERAL ELECTRIC CO  (POR)         INCOME STATEMENT

Fiscal year ends in December. USD in thousan         2014-12         2015-12         2016-12         2017-12         2018-12             TTM           

Revenue                                            1,900,000       1,898,000       1,923,000       2,009,000       1,991,000       2,071,000
Cost of revenue                                      970,000         927,000         903,000         901,000         863,000         920,000
Gross profit                                         930,000         971,000       1,020,000       1,108,000       1,128,000       1,151,000


Operating expenses
Depreciation and amortization                        301,000         305,000         321,000         345,000         382,000         391,000
Other operating expenses                             336,000         357,000         366,000         387,000         400,000         403,000
Total operating expenses                             637,000         662,000         687,000         732,000         782,000         794,000

Operating income                                     293,000         309,000         333,000         376,000         346,000         357,000
Interest Expense                                           0               0               0               0         124,000               0
Other income (expense)                               -58,000         -92,000         -90,000        -103,000           7,000        -116,000
Income before income taxes                           235,000         217,000         243,000         273,000         229,000         241,000
Provision for income taxes                            61,000          45,000          50,000          86,000          17,000          20,000
Net income from continuing operations                174,000         172,000         193,000         187,000         212,000         221,000
Other                                                  1,000               0               0               0               0               0
Net income                                           175,000         172,000         193,000         187,000         212,000         221,000
Net income available to common shareholders          175,000         172,000         193,000         187,000         212,000         221,000

Earnings per share
Basic                                                   2.24            2.05            2.17            2.10            2.38            2.48 
Diluted                                                 2.18            2.04            2.16            2.10            2.37            2.47 

Weighted average shares outstanding
Basic                                                 78,180          84,180          88,896          89,056          89,215          89,252
Diluted                                               80,494          84,341          89,054          89,176          89,347          89,384

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


PORTLAND GENERAL ELECTRIC CO  (POR)         BALANCE SHEET

Fiscal year ends in December. USD in thousan         2014-12         2015-12         2016-12         2017-12         2018-12             

Assets

Current assets

Cash

Total cash                                           127,000           4,000           6,000          39,000         119,000

Receivables                                          265,000         253,000         262,000         274,000         289,000
Inventories                                           82,000          83,000          82,000          78,000          84,000
Prepaid expenses                                      39,000          43,000          48,000          50,000          54,000
Other current assets                                 186,000         174,000          65,000          85,000          97,000
Total current assets                                 699,000         557,000         463,000         526,000         643,000

Non-current assets

Property, plant and equipment
Gross property, plant and equipment                8,578,000       9,105,000       9,747,000      10,305,000      10,690,000
Accumulated Depreciation                          -2,899,000      -3,093,000      -3,313,000      -3,564,000      -3,803,000
Net property, plant and equipment                  5,679,000       6,012,000       6,434,000       6,741,000       6,887,000

Prepaid pension costs                                 32,000          33,000          34,000          37,000          36,000
Regulatory assets                                    584,000         564,000         539,000         480,000         443,000
Other long-term assets                                48,000          55,000          57,000          54,000         101,000
Total non-current assets                           6,343,000       6,664,000       7,064,000       7,312,000       7,467,000

Total assets                                       7,042,000       7,221,000       7,527,000       7,838,000       8,110,000 

Liabilities and stockholders' equity

Liabilities

Current liabilities
Short-term debt                                      375,000         139,000         150,000               0         300,000
Accounts payable                                     156,000          98,000         129,000         132,000         168,000
Taxes payable                                         22,000          25,000          25,000          31,000          34,000
Accrued liabilities                                   26,000          25,000          25,000          27,000          27,000
Other current liabilities                            294,000         339,000         248,000         242,000         262,000
Total current liabilities                            873,000         626,000         577,000         432,000         791,000

Non-current liabilities
Long-term debt                                     2,126,000       2,071,000       2,200,000       2,426,000       2,178,000
Deferred taxes liabilities                           625,000         632,000         669,000         376,000         369,000
Pensions and other benefits                          342,000         365,000         386,000         390,000         410,000
Regulatory liabilities                               906,000         928,000         958,000       1,288,000       1,355,000
Other long-term liabilities                          259,000         341,000         393,000         510,000         501,000
Total non-current liabilities                      4,258,000       4,337,000       4,606,000       4,990,000       4,813,000

Total liabilities                                  5,131,000       4,963,000       5,183,000       5,422,000       5,604,000 

stockholders' equity

Additional paid-in capital                         1,918,000       2,266,000       2,351,000       2,424,000       2,513,000
Accumulated other comprehensive income                -7,000          -8,000          -7,000          -8,000          -7,000
Total stockholders' equity                         1,911,000       2,258,000       2,344,000       2,416,000       2,506,000
Total liabilities and stockholders' equity         7,042,000       7,221,000       7,527,000       7,838,000       8,110,000

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


PORTLAND GENERAL ELECTRIC CO  (POR)         Statement of CASH FLOW

Fiscal year ends in December. USD in thousan         2014-12         2015-12         2016-12         2017-12         2018-12             TTM           

Cash Flows From Operating Activities
Depreciation & amortization                          301,000         305,000         321,000         345,000         382,000         391,000
Investments losses (gains)                            10,000           2,000           2,000               0               0               0
Deferred income taxes                                 39,000          40,000          37,000          70,000         -17,000         -14,000
Accounts receivable                                    8,000         -11,000          -9,000          -3,000         -29,000               0
Other working capital                                 18,000          40,000          36,000           3,000          35,000         -31,000
Other non-cash items                                 142,000         141,000         166,000         182,000         259,000         246,000
Net cash provided by operating activities            518,000         517,000         553,000         597,000         630,000         592,000

Cash Flows From Investing Activities
Investments in property, plant, and equipmen      -1,007,000        -598,000        -584,000        -514,000        -595,000        -614,000
Property, plant, and equipment reductions             13,000               0               0               0               0               0
Purchases of investments                             -25,000         -19,000         -25,000         -18,000         -12,000         -11,000
Sales/Maturities of investments                       20,000          22,000          27,000          21,000          15,000          16,000
Other investing activities                             5,000          73,000          -3,000          -3,000         121,000         117,000
Net cash used for investing activities              -994,000        -522,000        -585,000        -514,000        -471,000        -492,000
Cash Flows From Financing Activities
Debt issued                                          585,000         151,000         290,000         225,000          75,000               0
Debt repayment                                             0        -442,000        -133,000        -150,000         -24,000               0
Common stock issued                                        0         271,000               0               0               0               0
Cash dividends paid                                  -87,000         -97,000        -110,000        -118,000        -125,000        -127,000
Other financing activities                            -2,000          -1,000         -13,000          -7,000          -5,000          46,000
Net cash provided by (used for) financing            496,000        -118,000          34,000         -50,000         -79,000         -81,000

Net change in cash                                    20,000        -123,000           2,000          33,000          80,000          19,000
Cash at beginning of period                          107,000         127,000           4,000           6,000          39,000          70,000
Cash at end of period                                127,000           4,000           6,000          39,000         119,000          89,000

Free Cash Flow
Operating cash flow                                  518,000         517,000         553,000         597,000         630,000         592,000
Capital expenditure                               -1,007,000        -598,000        -584,000        -514,000        -595,000        -614,000
Free cash flow                                      -489,000         -81,000         -31,000          83,000          35,000         -22,000
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________





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Average to Current P/E Ratios
              (POR)     Portland General Electric Co.

                               2014    2015    2016    2017    2018

          Annual Earnings:     2.17    2.04    2.17    2.10    2.37
Average Price During Year:    32.77   36.20   40.52   45.94   43.75

                P/E Ratio:    15.10   17.74   18.67   21.88   18.46

 Average 5-Year P/E Ratio  =  18.37
             Current Price =  52.11

Previous 5 Quarter Earnings:   0.47    0.72    0.52    0.59    0.55

          Current Annualized (Last Four Quarters) Earnings =   1.66
                                                           ________
                                 Average PE / Current PE =     0.59
                                                           --------

                                      ...a number above 1.00 is good
                                                1.00 or below is bad


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Sentiment

sentiment

Zenith uses the "sentiment" score above or below 50 to award a positive or negative point in the Decision Matrix.

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Short Interest Ratio

As the short interest rises as a percentage of average daily share volume (Days to Cover), this is considered a measure of negative sentiment. Similarly, a decrease in that percentage is considered positive sentiment.

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Management's Discussion of Results of Operations Excerpts

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Channeling Potential

 
The summary below includes a value for `Degree,' which refers on a
scale of 1 to 10 the range of a channel in the period under consi-
deration compared to the total range of price movement. It also looks
for the last closing price to be within the channel, otherwise zeroed.
The `Index' is the `Degree' weighted for volatility.  Generally, the
the higher the index, the more suitable is the stock for trading as
a `rolling stock' between channel high and low points.

Results for PORTLAND GENERAL ELECTRIC:
Symbol? POR
Total Months Available:  25
       Months in Cycle?   4

Months Covered by Periods:  12

Period 1           Period 2          Period 3
   H1      L1        H2      L2        H3      L3
  47.56   39.60     50.40   43.73     52.60   44.03

RANGE   =  52.60  TO   39.60            Close =  52.31
CHANNEL =  47.56  TO   44.03           Degree =   3
Volatility =   6.75%                    Index =   2
Channel Chart



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MACD Histogram Divergence

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2 Days:



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Val Idea

3 out of 8 favorable, (negative opinion.)

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Neural Network Prediction

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Ultimate Trading Systems

2 out of 3 of the ultimate systems favor an upmove.


System Below:
Short term outlook: Positive: Bright Green, Negative: Bright Red
Long term outlook: Postive: Dark Green, Negative: Dark Red.




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Recommendation

Decision Weighting Factors
FactorsWeighted Points
News + 2
Comparison - 1
Industry + 1
Bond Issue 0
Zenith Index - 1
Non-GAAP vs. GAAP Earnings - 1
Cash Flow + 1
Average to Current P/E - 1
Ratios + 1
Intrinsic Value DCF - 1
Fair Value Estimator + 1
Projected Earnings + 1
Research Reports + 1
Analysts - 1
Executive Perquisites - 1
Insider Activity - 1
Institutional Activity - 1
Management Reporting + 1
Short Interest + 1
Sentiment + 1
Standard & Poor's - 1
MACD Histogram Divergence - 1
Val Idea - 1
Stock Consultant - 1
Point & Figure + 1
Wall Street Analyzer - 1
Marketspace Chart + 1
Time Series Chart + 1
Neural Network + 1
Stock Options - 1
Ultimate Trading Systems + 1
Total + 1
Place 580 shares of Portland General Electric Inc. (POR) on the Active List.