05-10-2019: Lithia Motors, Inc. (LAD): Linking Dealers Through the Internet

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Lithia Motors, Inc.

Lithia Motors is a Medford, Oregon-based company that has acquired a very large number of new car dealers. Its earnings and growth have been spectacular due to these acquisitions adding to earnings. Car dealers have suffered throughout the last decade from recessions and trade policies affecting the imported cars they sell, but lately things appear to be booming. The industry group is very strong. Earnings took a jump in the last year and are projected to take another one in the following year. Analysts are favorable and researchers somewhat neutral on the stock. Institutions are net sellers but Dimensional Fund Advisors is among major shareholders and they are acquiring.

The stock appears to have broken out of a trading range and is starting to establish a new one. Chart pattern looks very good and one should wait for momentum to develop before attempting any short position.

One would think with the number of car dealers about this competitive business would be a bit hard-pressed but Lithia seems to have a strategy to link all its dealers together in an Internet scheme to determine the best match and price over a computer system linking all the locations. Shoppers never have to leave home.



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Zenith Index

Under current market conditions, a Zenith Index Score of 1.20 or above is required for a positive rating on this factor. 1.21 -1.30 is considered acceptable, 1.30-1.40 is considered strong and
> 1.40 is considered exceptionally strong. Accounting statements in this section often contain mistakes, especially in earlier years' totals, but data is deemed sufficient for us to give a rating. More accurate financial statements follow in the next section.

Lithia Motors, Inc. (LAD)                                 Exchange: NYSE
150 North Bartlett Street
Medford, OR 97501                Sector: Consumer Cyclical
United States                    Industry: Auto & Truck Dealerships

Lithia Motors, Inc. operates as an automotive retailer in the United
States. The company operates through three segments: Domestic, Import,
and Luxury. It offers new and used vehicles; vehicle financing services;
warranties, insurance contracts, and vehicle and theft protection
services; and automotive repair and maintenance services, as well as
sells vehicle body and parts. As of February 22, 2019, the company
offered 28 brands of new vehicles and various brands of used vehicles in
182 stores in the United States, as well as through online at
approximately 200 Websites. Lithia Motors, Inc. was founded in 1946 and
is headquartered in Medford, Oregon.

Last Trade: 112.92                           52-Week Range: 114.81 -  67.90
Employees: 13,643                            Avg.Volume:     274,528 Shares

Corporate Governance:
Pillar scores are Audit: 2; Board: 5; Shareholder Rights: 7; Compensation: 3.
         (A lower number means less governance risk.)

EPS: 11.25    Dividend Amount: $ 1.16          Yield:  1.25%
             Ex-Dividend Date: May 8, 2019     Payout Ratio:  10.50

Key Statistics:

    Trailing P/E:  10.17              Forward P/E (est.):  10.02
                                           Target Price: 120.30

Qrtly Stock Price Growth (yoy):  17.34%               Beta:   0.00
Qrtly S&P Index   Growth (yoy):   7.10%        Short Ratio:  11.47%
    Qrtly Revenue Growth (yoy):   9.16%         Shares Out:  22350000
   Qrtly Earnings Growth (yoy):   8.30%

          Book Value:  54.13                    Debt/Equity: 296.46%
    Price/Book Value:   2.11        Operating Profit Margin:   3.90%
         Price/Sales:   0.22                  Profit Margin:   2.25%
         Market Cap:   2,649,000,000       Return on Equity:  22.71%
    Enterprise Value:   6,230,000,000      Return on Assets:   5.43%

    Operating Cash Flow:    548,000,000
         Free Cash Flow:    131,520,000



Annual Income Statement:                          (All numbers in thousands)
  Period Ending                             12/31/2018  12/31/2017  12/31/2016

  Total Revenue                             11,821,400  10,086,500   8,678,200
  Cost of Revenue                           10,044,400   8,570,400   7,376,900
  Gross Profit                               1,777,000   1,516,100   1,301,300

Operating Expenses:
  Research & Development                             0           0           0
  Selling, General & Administrative          1,249,000   1,043,400     899,600
  Non-Recurring Expenses                             0           0           0
  Other Operating Expenses                           0           0           0
  Total Operating Expenses                  11,368,800   9,671,500   8,325,800

Operating Income or Loss                       452,600     415,000     352,400

Income from Continuing Operations:
  Total Other Income/Expenses Net             -115,100     -67,900     -68,900
  Earnings Before Interest & Taxes             452,600     415,000     352,400
  Interest Expense                            -118,300     -74,100     -48,800
  Income Before Taxes                          337,500     347,100     283,500
  Income Tax Expense                            71,800     101,900      86,400
  Minority Interest                                  0           0           0

Net Income from Continuing Op.s                265,700     245,200     197,100

Non-recurring Events:
  Discontinued Operations                            0           0           0
  Extraordinary Items                                0           0           0
  Effect of Accounting Changes                       0           0           0
  Other Items                                        0           0           0
  Net Income                                   265,700     245,200     197,100
  Preferred Stock & Other Adjustments                0           0           0

Net Income Avail to Common Shares              265,700     245,200     197,100



Annual Cash Flow Statement:                   (All numbers in thousands)
  Period Ending                         12/31/2018    12/31/2017    12/31/2016

  Net Income                               265,700       245,200       197,100

Operating Activities:
  Depreciation                              75,400        57,700        49,300
  Adjustments to Net Income                 32,700         3,000        29,700
  Changes in Accounts Recv'bls               4,700       -57,400      -106,000
  Changes in Liabilities                    15,100        20,000        16,400
  Changes in Investories                  -108,900      -193,100      -168,800
  Changes in other Oper'g Acts             235,000        73,500        73,200

Total Cash Flow f Operations               519,700       148,900        90,900

Investing Activities:
  Capital Exenditures                     -158,000      -105,400      -100,800
  Investments                              -62,700        -8,600       -30,300
  Other Cash Flows fr Investing                  0             0             0

Total Cash Flows from Investing           -557,100      -538,200      -351,700

Financing Activities:
  Dividends Paid                           -27,700       -26,500       -24,100
  Sale of Purchase of Stock                      0             0             0
  Net Borrowings                           179,400       487,200       396,200
  Other Cash Flows fr Financing             -1,200       -38,100             0

Total Cash Flows from Financing             11,700       396,300       266,100
  Effect of Exchange Rate Chg                    0             0             0

Change in Cash & Cash Equiv.               -25,700         7,000         5,300



Annual Balance Sheets:                              (All Numbers in Thousands)
  Period Ending                          12/31/2018    12/31/2017    12/31/2016
Current Assets:
  Cash & Cash Equivalents                    31,600        57,300        50,282
  Short Term Investments                          0             0             0
  Net Receivables                           546,500       544,400       420,114
  Inventory                               2,365,300     2,132,700     1,772,587
  Other Current Assets                       48,000        48,400        44,211
  Total Current Assets                    2,991,400     2,782,800     2,287,194

  Long-Term Investments                      54,000             0             0
  Property, Plant & Equipt                1,448,000     1,185,200     1,006,130
  Goodwill                                  434,900       256,300       259,399
  Intangible Assets                         288,700       187,000       184,268
  Accumulated Amortization                        0             0             0
  Other Assets                              167,000       271,800       107,159
  Deferred LT Asset Charges                       0             0             0

Total Assets                              5,384,000     4,683,100     3,844,150

Current Liabilities:
  Accounts Payable                          126,300       111,400        88,423
  Current Portion LT Debt                    25,900        18,900        20,965
  Other Current Liabilities                  27,900        23,000             0
  Total Current Liabilities               2,493,500     2,301,000      1,921,994

  Long Term Debt                          1,358,200     1,028,500       769,916
  Other Liabilities                         335,100       270,400       241,464
  Deferred LT Liab. Charges                       0             0             0
  Minority Interest                               0             0             0
  Negative Goodwill                               0             0             0

Total Liabilities                         4,186,800     3,599,900     2,933,374

Stockholder Equity:
  Misc. Options, Warrants                         0             0             0
  Redeemable Preferred Stock                      0             0             0
  Preferred Stock                                 0             0             0
  Common Stock                                  100       149,200       165,731
  Retained Earnings                       1,162,100       922,700       703,820
  Treasury Stock                                  0             0             0
  Capital Surplus                            35,000        11,300        41,225
  Other Stockhohlder Equity                       0             0             0
  Total Stockholder Equity                1,197,200     1,083,200       910,776

Net Tangible Assets                         473,600       639,900       467,109


Lithia Motors, Inc. (LAD)                   [Indices near +3.0, near zero,
                                            or < zero bear special attention.]
P/E Ratio Tests:
P/E Ratio < 28?            2.7532          P/E Ratio > 5?             1.0000
P/E Ratio Vs Growth Rate:  3.0000          Forward P/E Ratio < 28?    2.7944
Price/Sales Ratio < 2.3?   3.0000          Inventory/Sales < 5%?      0.2499
Sales < $1 Billion?        0.0846          Operating Margin < 7.5%?   1.9231

Balance Sheet Tests:
Debt/Equity < 0.40?        0.1349          Long-Term Debt Service:    0.8815
LTD Being Reduced?        -3.0000          Short-Term Debt Service:  -3.0000
Current Ratio > 2?         0.5998          Working Capital >= 1.5?    1.2670
Leverage Ratio < 20%?      0.4405          Debt/Assets < 1?           3.0000
Quick Ratio > 1?           3.0000          Inventory Turnover > 1?    0.2081
Share Equity Increase:     2.2946          Market Cap.< 1.5 Billion?  0.5663
                                           Intangibles < 3% Assets?   0.2232
Income Tests:
Profit Margin < 7.5%?      0.3000          EPS Annual Growth > 10%?   0.0923
Dividend Yield > 2.0%?     1.6000          EPS 3-yr Growth > 15?      0.1113
Enterprise Value/Revenue   0.2242          EPS Growth Consistent?     2.0000
Enterprise Value/EBITDA:   3.0000          Collection < 45 days?      2.6668
EPS Qrtly Growth > 10%?    0.0120          Gross Pft/Cur. LTD > 1?    3.0000
                                           Borrowing Int. Rate < 6%? -0.6889
Stock Performance Tests:
Volatility > 25%?          1.6344          % Held by Insiders < 5%?   2.8409
Beta > 1.25?               0.0000          % Held by Institut. < 50?  0.4466
50 Da MA > 200 Da MA?      0.2808          % Held by Institut. > 30?  3.0000
52-Wk Change vs. S&P 500:  1.8930          Short Ratio > 5?           2.2940
Price/Book Value < 3?      1.4381          Short % of Float > 20?     0.9320
Return on Assets > 17%?    0.3194          Average Volume > 100,000?  2.7453

Cash Flow Tests:
Oper. C.F. > Lever'd C.F:  3.0000          Positive Free Cash Flow?   3.0000
Positive Oper. Cash Flow?  3.0000          Price to C.F.Ratio < 14?:  3.0000
                                           Cash Flow / Assets > 10%?  2.0217

LAD    Lithia Motors, Inc.                 Overall Zenith Index:      1.3389


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Financial Statements

LITHIA MOTORS INC CLASS A  (LAD)            INCOME STATEMENT

Fiscal year ends in December. USD in thousan         2014-12         2015-12         2016-12         2017-12         2018-12             TTM           

Revenue                                            5,390,326       7,864,252       8,678,157      10,086,510      11,821,400      12,011,400
Cost of revenue                                    4,567,004       6,688,618       7,376,842       8,570,424      10,044,400      10,191,800
Gross profit                                         823,322       1,175,634       1,301,315       1,516,086       1,777,000       1,819,600


Operating expenses
Sales, General and administrative                    529,445         771,437         855,707         993,565       1,196,100       1,219,700
Other operating expenses                              60,125          81,338          93,252         113,535         147,400         151,100
Total operating expenses                             589,570         852,775         948,959       1,107,100       1,343,500       1,370,800

Operating income                                     233,752         322,859         352,356         408,986         433,500         448,800
Interest Expense                                      24,603          39,025          48,738          74,112         118,300         126,400
Other income (expense)                                 1,346         -21,130         -20,095          12,195          22,300          23,100
Income before income taxes                           210,495         262,704         283,523         347,069         337,500         345,500
Provision for income taxes                            74,955          79,705          86,465         101,852          71,800          75,500
Net income from continuing operations                135,540         182,999         197,058         245,217         265,700         270,000
Net income from discontinuing ops                      3,180               0               0               0               0               0
Net income                                           138,720         182,999         197,058         245,217         265,700         270,000
Net income available to common shareholders          138,720         182,999         197,058         245,217         265,700         270,000

Earnings per share
Basic                                                   5.31            6.96            7.76            9.78           10.91           11.26 
Diluted                                                 5.26            6.91            7.72            9.75           10.86           11.21 

Weighted average shares outstanding
Basic                                                 26,121          26,290          25,409          25,065          24,400          23,925
Diluted                                               26,382          26,490          25,521          25,145          24,500          24,000

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


LITHIA MOTORS INC CLASS A  (LAD)            BALANCE SHEET

Fiscal year ends in December. USD in thousan         2014-12         2015-12         2016-12         2017-12         2018-12             

Assets

Current assets

Cash

Total cash                                            29,898          45,008          50,282          57,253          31,600

Receivables                                          295,379         308,462         417,714         521,938         529,400
Inventories                                        1,249,659       1,470,987       1,772,587       2,132,744       2,365,300
Other current assets                                  40,573          54,408          46,611          70,847          65,100
Total current assets                               1,615,509       1,878,865       2,287,194       2,782,782       2,991,400

Non-current assets

Property, plant and equipment
Land                                                 263,328         281,982         318,832         346,680         419,700
Fixtures and equipment                               160,807         189,809         222,201         325,575         389,800
Other properties                                     510,289         542,722         632,397         710,716         879,000
Property and equipment, at cost                      934,424       1,014,513       1,173,430       1,382,971       1,688,500
Accumulated Depreciation                            -117,679        -137,853        -167,300        -197,802        -240,500
Property, plant and equipment, net                   816,745         876,660       1,006,130       1,185,169       1,448,000

Goodwill                                             199,375         213,220         259,399         256,320         434,900
Intangible assets                                    150,892         157,699         184,268         186,977         288,700
Other long-term assets                                98,411         100,855         107,159         271,818         221,000
Total non-current assets                           1,265,423       1,348,434       1,556,956       1,900,284       2,392,600

Total assets                                       2,880,932       3,227,299       3,844,150       4,683,066       5,384,000 

Liabilities and stockholders' equity

Liabilities

Current liabilities
Short-term debt                                    1,210,591       1,352,846       1,622,462       1,937,902       2,083,600
Accounts payable                                      70,853          70,871          88,423         111,362         126,300
Deferred income taxes                                  2,603               0               0               0               0
Accrued liabilities                                  153,661         167,108         211,109         251,717         283,600
Other current liabilities                              4,892               0               0               0               0
Total current liabilities                          1,442,600       1,590,825       1,921,994       2,300,981       2,493,500

Non-current liabilities
Long-term debt                                       609,066         606,463         769,916       1,028,476       1,358,200
Deferred taxes liabilities                            42,795          53,129          59,075          56,277          91,200
Deferred revenues                                     54,403          66,734          81,929         103,111         121,700
Other long-term liabilities                           58,963          81,984         100,460         111,003         122,200
Total non-current liabilities                        765,227         808,310       1,011,380       1,298,867       1,693,300

Total liabilities                                  2,207,827       2,399,135       2,933,374       3,599,848       4,186,800 

Stockholders' equity

Additional paid-in capital                           306,152         297,548         206,956         160,556          35,100
Retained earnings                                    367,879         530,893         703,820         922,662       1,162,100
Accumulated other comprehensive income                  -926            -277               0               0               0
Total stockholders' equity                           673,105         828,164         910,776       1,083,218       1,197,200
Total liabilities and stockholders' equity         2,880,932       3,227,299       3,844,150       4,683,066       5,384,000

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


LITHIA MOTORS INC CLASS A  (LAD)            Statement of CASH FLOW

Fiscal year ends in December. USD in thousan         2014-12         2015-12         2016-12         2017-12         2018-12             TTM           

Cash Flows From Operating Activities
Depreciation & amortization                           26,363          41,600          49,369          57,722          75,400          78,400
Investment/asset impairment charges                    1,853          20,124          13,992               0           1,300           1,800
Deferred income taxes                                 13,355          12,341          10,138          -2,798          33,000          35,500
Stock based compensation                               7,436          11,871          11,047          11,272          13,300          13,200
Accounts receivable                                  -59,474         -13,047        -105,961         -57,360           4,700          12,000
Inventory                                            -76,002        -197,079        -168,847        -193,099        -108,900         -91,400
Accounts payable                                      -3,105             674          16,449          20,008          15,100           1,800
Accrued liabilities                                  -13,472          16,273          42,852          37,227          28,900          28,000
Other working capital                                  6,304           9,181          30,253          36,215         206,100         213,500
Other non-cash items                                 127,061         172,271         187,224         239,669         250,800         255,200
Net cash provided by operating activities             30,319          74,209          86,516         148,856         519,700         548,000

Cash Flows From Investing Activities
Investments in property, plant, and equipmen         -85,983         -83,244        -100,761        -105,378        -158,000        -145,100
Acquisitions, net                                   -658,127         -86,759        -253,143        -448,021        -402,200         -77,200
Other investing charges                                7,778             270           2,211          15,201           3,100           3,400
Net cash used for investing activities              -736,332        -169,733        -351,693        -538,198        -557,100        -218,900

Cash Flows From Financing Activities
Short-term borrowing                                 440,341         136,201         252,893         241,479         -21,900         -26,200
Long-term debt issued                              1,560,046       1,337,272       1,310,809       2,150,355       2,753,500       2,429,500
Long-term debt repayment                          -1,260,041      -1,322,383      -1,167,502      -1,904,673      -2,552,200      -2,595,300
Excess tax benefit from stock based compe              6,186           5,012           4,389               0               0               0
Common stock issued                                    4,590           6,065           6,932           7,509          10,100          10,500
Repurchases of treasury stock                        -22,968         -31,548        -112,939         -33,753        -148,900        -143,700
Cash dividends paid                                  -15,929         -19,985         -24,131         -26,544         -27,700         -27,600
Other financing activities                                 0               0               0         -38,060          -1,200            -400
Net cash provided by (used for) financing            712,225         110,634         270,451         396,313          11,700        -353,200

Net change in cash                                     6,212          15,110           5,274           6,971         -25,700         -24,100
Cash at beginning of period                           23,686          29,898          45,008          50,282          57,300          69,000
Cash at end of period                                 29,898          45,008          50,282          57,253          31,600          44,900

Free Cash Flow
Operating cash flow                                   30,319          74,209          86,516         148,856         519,700         548,000
Capital expenditure                                  -85,983         -83,244        -100,761        -105,378        -158,000        -145,100
Free cash flow                                       -55,664          -9,035         -14,245          43,478         361,700         402,900
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________





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Average to Current P/E Ratios
              (LAD)     VMware Inc.

                               2014    2015    2016    2017    2018

          Annual Earnings:     2.04    2.34    2.80    1.59    5.85
Average Price During Year:    75.53  103.94   87.33  100.45   97.25

                P/E Ratio:    37.02   44.42   31.19   63.17   16.62

 Average 5-Year P/E Ratio  =  38.49
             Current Price =  113.86

Previous 5 Quarter Earnings:  -1.09    2.29    1.56    0.81    1.21

          Current Annualized (Last Four Quarters) Earnings =   3.58
                                                           ________
                                 Average PE / Current PE =     1.21
                                                           --------

                                      ...a number above 1.00 is good
                                                1.00 or below is bad


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Sentiment

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Channeling Potential

 
The summary below includes a value for `Degree,' which refers on a
scale of 1 to 10 the range of a channel in the period under consi-
deration compared to the total range of price movement. It also looks
for the last closing price to be within the channel, otherwise zeroed.
The `Index' is the `Degree' weighted for volatility.  Generally, the
the higher the index, the more suitable is the stock for trading as
a `rolling stock' between channel high and low points.

Results for LITHIA MOTORS INC.:
Symbol? LAD
Total Months Available:  25
       Months in Cycle?   4

Months Covered by Periods:  12

Period 1           Period 2          Period 3
   H1      L1        H2      L2        H3      L3
 105.64   78.85     92.24   67.90    114.81   74.77

RANGE   = 114.81  TO   67.90            Close = 112.92
CHANNEL =  92.24  TO   78.85           Degree =   3
Volatility =  11.86%                    Index =   3
Channel Chart



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2 Days:



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6 out of 8 favorable, (positive opinion.)

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3 out of 3 of the ultimate systems favor an upmove.


System Below:
Short term outlook: Positive: Bright Green, Negative: Bright Red
Long term outlook: Postive: Dark Green, Negative: Dark Red.




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Recommendation

Decision Weighting Factors
FactorsWeighted Points
News + 1
Comparison - 1
Industry + 1
Bond Issue + 1
Zenith Index + 1
Non-GAAP vs. GAAP Earnings - 1
Cash Flow - 1
Average to Current P/E + 1
Ratios + 1
Intrinsic Value DCF - 1
Fair Value Estimator + 1
Projected Earnings + 1
Research Reports + 1
Analysts + 1
Executive Perquisites + 1
Insider Activity - 1
Institutional Activity - 1
Management Reporting + 1
Short Interest + 1
Sentiment + 1
Standard & Poor's - 1
MACD Histogram Divergence + 1
Val Idea + 1
Stock Consultant - 1
Point & Figure + 1
Wall Street Analyzer + 1
Marketspace Chart + 1
Time Series Chart - 1
Neural Network - 1
Stock Options + 1
Ultimate Trading Systems + 1
Total + 11
Place 260 shares of Lithia Motors Inc. (LAD) on the Active List.