02-11-2018: HMS Holdings Corporation (HMSY): Return on Medical Management Software Investments Expected to Improve

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Recommendation

HMS Holdings Corporation

In the healthcare field in particular, there have been a lot of name changes. The reason for this is unclear, but it is a fact that an unusual number of healthcare companies have been altering their names. Why would a company with an accurately descriptive name and brand recognition like "Healthcare Management Systems, Inc." change its name to something obscure like "HMS Holdings, Inc." (HMSY)? Nowhere is this explained anywhere. HMS Holdings does in fact provide healthcare management systems for federal and state governments, health plan operators, employers, and "at risk providers." As such it might be classified as a business internet services provider, a provider of software to help manage operations and control costs related to the medical industry.

One reason for a name change might be a desire to disassociate from the past. In 2016, trouble began for this corporation when there was a dispute over the Company's Medicare Recovery Audit Contractor contract with the Centers of Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS). This cost a 21% drop in stock price in November of that year when the news got out. Then in March, 2017, the company delayed filing of its annual report after identifying a "material weakness" in its internal controls over financial reporting related to the CMS reserves.

During this period the corporation made some major acquisitions and increased its debt load. An unusually large number of class action lawsuit attorneys lined up at the door.

The corporation appears to have survived this and rather consistently beat Wall St. estimates in recent earnings reports. The corporation is lagging behind competitors engaged in similar business according to some classifications, but outperforming others depending upon how one classifies the company's business. But "Medical Information Systems" is a very strong industry group performer to which HMSY belongs.

The Zenith Index for this corporation is very marginal, barely acceptable. Primary problem there is taking on too much additional debt recently at less than favorable rates. However, financial ratios do not look too bad including debt/equity. Earnings are increasing at a faster rate than revenues suggesting a trend that is not sustainable. GMI Analyst approves of the bookkeeping methods as a little above average.

Institutions are net acquirers, and Dimensional Fund Advisors is prominent among them which is a good sign. Corporate governance is average in our opinion, and management's reporting is good but the corporation's website is vague in our opinion, and does not adequately describe whatever this corporation's products are able to do in any sort of detail. A CEO Letter to Shareholders does indicate unusual shareholder concern, even if the corporation pays no dividends.

The stock chart pattern suggests to us that the corporation is still recovering from 2016 experiences, but has become a leader in the healthcare management software field. Recent acquisitions have greatly beefed up earnings.

There are some concerns regarding return on invested capital for this corporation, but analysts believe growth potential with overwhelm any backward-looking problems.





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Zenith Index

Under current market conditions, a Zenith Index Score of 1.20 or above is required for a positive rating on this factor. 1.21 -1.30 is considered acceptable, 1.30-1.40 is considered strong and
> 1.40 is considered exceptionally strong. Accounting statements in this section often contain mistakes, especially in earlier years' totals, but data is deemed sufficient for us to give a rating. More accurate financial statements follow in the next section.

HMS Holdings Corp. (HMSY)                                 Exchange: Nasdaq
5615 High Point Drive
Irving, TX 75038                 Sector: Industrials
United States                    Industry: Business

HMS Holdings Corp., through its subsidiaries, provides cost containment
solutions in the United States healthcare marketplace. It provides
coordination of benefits services to government and commercial
healthcare payers and sponsors to coordinate benefits for claims; and
payment integrity services that ensure healthcare claims billed are
accurate and appropriate, as well as offers care management and consumer
engagement solutions. The company's services also enable customers to
recover improper payments; prevent future improper payments; reduce
fraud, waste, and abuse; improve outcomes and increase retention; and
ensure regulatory compliance. It serves state Medicaid programs,
commercial health plans, federal government health agencies, government
and private employers, children's health insurance programs, and other
healthcare payers and sponsors. The company was founded in 1974 and is
headquartered in Irving, Texas.

Last Trade:  30.52                           52-Week Range:  38.15 -  14.88
Employees: 2,500                             Avg.Volume:     639,622 Shares

Corporate Governance:
Pillar scores are Audit: 5; Board: 3; Shareholder Rights: 3; Compensation: 5.
         (A lower number means less governance risk.)

EPS:  0.55    Dividend Amount: $ 0.00          Yield:  0.00%
             Ex-Dividend Date: N/A             Payout Ratio:   0.00

Key Statistics:

    Trailing P/E:  55.03              Forward P/E (est.):  27.32
                                           Target Price:  37.00

Qrtly Stock Price Growth (yoy): 101.19%               Beta:   0.00
Qrtly S&P Index   Growth (yoy):  22.70%        Short Ratio:   2.60%
    Qrtly Revenue Growth (yoy):   4.85%         Shares Out:  83910000
   Qrtly Earnings Growth (yoy): 191.50%

          Book Value:   7.77                    Debt/Equity:  36.82%
    Price/Book Value:   3.90        Operating Profit Margin:  12.63%
         Price/Sales:   4.31                  Profit Margin:   8.01%
         Market Cap:   2,544,000,000       Return on Equity:   7.64%
    Enterprise Value:   2,690,000,000      Return on Assets:   4.74%

    Operating Cash Flow:     86,900,000
         Free Cash Flow:     76,190,000



Annual Income Statement:                          (All numbers in thousands)
  Period Ending                             12/31/2017  12/31/2016  12/31/2015

  Total Revenue                                521,212     489,720     474,216
  Cost of Revenue                              334,734     314,640     315,375
  Gross Profit                                 186,478     175,080     158,841

Operating Expenses:
  Research & Development                             0           0           0
  Selling, General & Administrative            101,122      89,381      83,121
  Non-Recurring Expenses                             0           0           0
  Other Operating Expenses                           0           0           0
  Total Operating Expenses                     466,249     432,051     426,644

Operating Income or Loss                        54,963      57,669      47,572

Income from Continuing Operations:
  Total Other Income/Expenses Net              -15,108      -9,761      -7,763
  Earnings Before Interest & Taxes              54,963      57,669      47,572
  Interest Expense                             -10,871      -8,519      -7,812
  Income Before Taxes                           39,855      49,471      39,809
  Income Tax Expense                              -199      11,835      15,282
  Minority Interest                                  0           0           0

Net Income from Continuing Op.s                 40,054      37,636      24,527

Non-recurring Events:
  Discontinued Operations                            0           0           0
  Extraordinary Items                                0           0           0
  Effect of Accounting Changes                       0           0           0
  Other Items                                        0           0           0
  Net Income                                    40,054      37,636      24,527
  Preferred Stock & Other Adjustments                0           0           0

Net Income Avail to Common Shares               40,054      37,636      24,527



Annual Cash Flow Statement:                   (All numbers in thousands)
  Period Ending                         12/31/2017    12/31/2016    12/31/2015

  Net Income                                40,054        37,636        24,527

Operating Activities:
  Depreciation                              42,232        37,180        42,720
  Adjustments to Net Income                  1,078         4,961           361
  Changes in Accounts Recv'bls              -6,976        -3,554       -12,045
  Changes in Liabilities                      -340        12,116          -250
  Changes in Investories                         0             0             0
  Changes in other Oper'g Acts              -1,142        -2,422        -3,574

Total Cash Flow f Operations                86,464        88,639        72,285

Investing Activities:
  Capital Exenditures                      -17,318       -13,703        -8,620
  Investments                                    0         2,496             0
  Other Cash Flows fr Investing                  0             0             0

Total Cash Flows from Investing           -204,364       -39,201       -11,817

Financing Activities:
  Dividends Paid                                 0             0             0
  Sale of Purchase of Stock                      0             0             0
  Net Borrowings                            42,061           -44        -1,132
  Other Cash Flows fr Financing             -2,269        -2,269             0

Total Cash Flows from Financing             25,214       -19,049       -47,974

  Effect of Exchange Rate Chg                    0             0             0

Change in Cash & Cash Equiv.               -92,686        30,389        12,494



Annual Balance Sheets:                              (All Numbers in Thousands)
  Period Ending                          12/31/2017    12/31/2016    12/31/2015
Current Assets:
  Cash & Cash Equivalents                    83,313       175,999       145,610
  Short Term Investments                          0             0             0
  Net Receivables                           191,352       176,936       169,146
  Inventory                                       0             0             0
  Other Current Assets                        1,400         1,001         3,051
  Total Current Assets                      276,065       353,936       317,807

  Long-Term Investments                           0             0             0
  Property, Plant & Equipt                   98,581        92,167        96,551
  Goodwill                                  487,617       379,716       361,468
  Intangible Assets                          91,482        37,797        54,308
  Accumulated Amortization                        0             0             0
  Other Assets                                4,826         5,440         9,202
  Deferred LT Asset Charges                       0             0             0

Total Assets                                975,160       882,755       850,597

Current Liabilities:
  Accounts Payable                           19,330        13,847         7,790
  Current Portion LT Debt                         0             0             0
  Other Current Liabilities                  30,787        30,755        36,951
  Total Current Liabilities                  92,687        90,157         88,612

  Long Term Debt                            240,000       197,796       197,796
  Other Liabilities                          36,244        38,192        39,487
  Deferred LT Liab. Charges                   2,237         2,790         4,873
  Minority Interest                               0             0             0
  Negative Goodwill                               0             0             0

Total Liabilities                           368,931       326,145       325,895

Stockholder Equity:
  Misc. Options, Warrants                         0             0             0
  Redeemable Preferred Stock                      0             0             0
  Preferred Stock                                 0             0             0
  Common Stock                                  965           959           952
  Retained Earnings                         366,164       326,110       288,474
  Treasury Stock                           -129,621      -115,484       -95,014
  Capital Surplus                           368,721       345,025       330,290
  Other Stockhohlder Equity                       0             0             0
  Total Stockholder Equity                  606,229       556,610       524,702

Net Tangible Assets                          27,130       139,097       108,926


HMS Holdings Corp. (HMSY)                   [Indices near +3.0, near zero,
                                            or < zero bear special attention.]
P/E Ratio Tests:
P/E Ratio < 28?            0.5088          P/E Ratio > 5?             1.0000
P/E Ratio Vs Growth Rate:  3.0000          Forward P/E Ratio < 28?    1.0249
Price/Sales Ratio < 2.3?   0.5336          Inventory/Sales < 5%?      1.0000
Sales < $1 Billion?        1.9186          Operating Margin < 7.5%?   0.5938

Balance Sheet Tests:
Debt/Equity < 0.40?        1.0864          Long-Term Debt Service:    2.5260
LTD Being Reduced?        -3.0000          Short-Term Debt Service:  -3.0000
Current Ratio > 2?         1.4892          Working Capital >= 1.5?    0.5103
Leverage Ratio < 20%?      0.2301          Debt/Assets < 1?           3.0000
Quick Ratio > 1?           3.0000          Inventory Turnover > 1?    1.0000
Share Equity Increase:     2.1500          Market Cap.< 1.5 Billion?  0.5896
                                           Intangibles < 3% Assets?   0.0505
Income Tests:
Profit Margin < 7.5%?      1.0680          EPS Annual Growth > 10%?   0.0940
Dividend Yield > 2.0%?     0.0000          EPS 3-yr Growth > 15?      0.0919
Enterprise Value/Revenue   3.0000          EPS Growth Consistent?     2.0000
Enterprise Value/EBITDA:   3.0000          Collection < 45 days?      0.3358
EPS Qrtly Growth > 10%?    0.0005          Gross Pft/Cur. LTD > 1?    3.0000
                                           Borrowing Int. Rate < 6%? -1.3246
Stock Performance Tests:
Volatility > 25%?          2.4398          % Held by Insiders < 5%?   3.0000
Beta > 1.25?               0.0000          % Held by Institut. < 50?  0.5035
50 Da MA > 200 Da MA?     -0.2074          % Held by Institut. > 30?  3.0000
52-Wk Change vs. S&P 500:  3.0000          Short Ratio > 5?           0.5200
Price/Book Value < 3?      0.7638          Short % of Float > 20?     0.1555
Return on Assets > 17%?    0.2788          Average Volume > 100,000?  3.0000

Cash Flow Tests:
Oper. C.F. > Lever'd C.F:  1.1406          Positive Free Cash Flow?   3.0000
Positive Oper. Cash Flow?  3.0000          Price to C.F.Ratio < 14?:  1.7392
                                           Cash Flow / Assets > 10%?  3.0000

HMSY   HMS Holdings Corp.                  Overall Zenith Index:      1.2004


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Financial Statements

HMS HOLDINGS CORP  (HMSY)                   INCOME STATEMENT

Fiscal year ends in December. USD in thousan         2013-12         2014-12         2015-12         2016-12         2017-12             TTM           

Revenue                                              491,762         443,225         474,216         489,720         521,212         590,955
Cost of revenue                                      345,883         330,058         343,523         342,670         365,127         397,338
Gross profit                                         145,879         113,167         130,693         147,050         156,085         193,617


Operating expenses
Sales, General and administrative                     68,701          78,963          83,121          89,381         105,654         118,962
Total operating expenses                              68,701          78,963          83,121          89,381         105,654         118,962

Operating income                                      77,178          34,204          47,572          57,669          50,431          74,655
Interest Expense                                      12,460           7,931           7,812           8,519          10,871          11,699
Other income (expense)                                   872              57              49             321             295         -19,306
Income before taxes                                   65,590          26,330          39,809          49,471          39,855          43,650
Provision for income taxes                            25,593          12,383          15,282          11,835            -199          -3,671
Net income from continuing operations                 39,997          13,947          24,527          37,636          40,054          47,321
Net income                                            39,997          13,947          24,527          37,636          40,054          47,321
Net income available to common shareholders           39,997          13,947          24,527          37,636          40,054          47,321

Earnings per share
Basic                                                   0.46            0.16            0.28            0.45            0.48            0.57 
Diluted                                                 0.45            0.16            0.28            0.43            0.47            0.55 

Weighted average shares outstanding
Basic                                                 87,598          87,673          87,881          84,221          83,821          83,517
Diluted                                               88,344          88,164          88,361          86,987          85,088          84,829

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


HMS HOLDINGS CORP  (HMSY)                   BALANCE SHEET

Fiscal year ends in December. USD in thousan         2013-12         2014-12         2015-12         2016-12         2017-12             

Assets

Current assets

Cash

Total cash                                            93,366         133,116         145,610         175,999          83,313

Receivables                                          171,726         157,101         169,146         173,582         189,460
Deferred income taxes                                      0           7,811           7,460               0               0
Prepaid expenses                                      12,942          11,810          11,261          13,699          16,589
Other current assets                                   7,281           7,781           3,051           4,355           3,292
Total current assets                                 285,315         317,619         336,528         367,635         292,654

Non-current assets

Property, plant and equipment
Gross property, plant and equipment                  215,997         237,211         236,892         248,470         277,071
Accumulated Depreciation                             -92,991        -121,184        -140,341        -156,303        -178,490
Net property, plant and equipment                    123,006         116,027          96,551          92,167          98,581

Goodwill                                             361,468         361,468         361,468         379,716         487,617
Intangible assets                                     95,312          74,578          54,308          37,797          91,482
Other long-term assets                                13,501          11,296           9,202           5,440           4,826
Total non-current assets                             593,287         563,369         521,529         515,120         682,506

Total assets                                         878,602         880,988         858,057         882,755         975,160 

Liabilities and stockholders' equity

Liabilities

Current liabilities
Accounts payable                                       7,217          14,840           7,790          13,847          19,330
Deferred income taxes                                  6,326               0               0               0               0
Taxes payable                                              0           4,159           3,873               0               0
Accrued liabilities                                   14,487          18,655          21,923          17,048          18,498
Other current liabilities                             58,216          53,694          55,026          59,262          54,859
Total current liabilities                             86,246          91,348          88,612          90,157          92,687

Non-current liabilities
Long-term debt                                       232,796         197,796         197,796         197,796         240,000
Deferred taxes liabilities                            52,523          50,853          38,421          22,717          21,989
Other long-term liabilities                            4,598           7,901           8,526          15,475          14,255
Total non-current liabilities                        289,917         256,550         244,743         235,988         276,244

Total liabilities                                    376,163         347,898         333,355         326,145         368,931 

Stockholders' equity

Common stock                                             936             943             952             959             965
Additional paid-in capital                           296,517         313,214         330,290         345,025         368,721
Retained earnings                                    250,000         263,947         288,474         326,110         366,164
Treasury stock                                       -45,014         -45,014         -95,014        -115,484        -129,621
Total stockholders' equity                           502,439         533,090         524,702         556,610         606,229
Total liabilities and stockholders' equity           878,602         880,988         858,057         882,755         975,160

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


HMS HOLDINGS CORP  (HMSY)                   Statement of CASH FLOW

Fiscal year ends in December. USD in thousan         2013-12         2014-12         2015-12         2016-12         2017-12             TTM           

Cash Flows From Operating Activities
Net income                                            39,997          13,947          24,527          37,636          40,054          47,321
Depreciation & amortization                           58,068          53,598          50,598          45,046          50,070          56,744
Deferred income taxes                                 -4,354         -12,290         -14,020          -7,368         -20,409         -27,265
Stock based compensation                              11,997          13,356          14,297          13,277          24,143          25,027
Change in working capital                             -6,703          33,603          -5,285          -1,087          -6,996          -7,366
Accounts receivable                                  -21,899           5,769         -12,045          -3,554          -6,976         -25,644
Prepaid expenses                                        -218           4,577           7,260          -2,399          -1,463          -2,457
Accounts payable                                       1,050          18,039            -250          12,116            -340          19,511
Income taxes payable                                       0               0           3,873               0               0               0
Other working capital                                 14,364           5,218          -4,123          -7,250           1,783           1,224
Other non-cash items                                   2,176          -3,453             599           1,135            -398          -7,559
Net cash provided by operating activities            101,181          98,761          70,716          88,639          86,464          86,902

Cash Flows From Investing Activities
Investments in property, plant, and equipmen         -22,127         -22,687          -8,620         -13,703         -17,318          -9,995
Acquisitions, net                                          0               0               0         -20,678        -171,321            -147
Sales/Maturities of investments                            0               0               0           2,496               0               0
Purchases of intangibles                              -3,656          -3,514          -3,197          -7,316         -15,725         -20,161
Other investing activities                              -500               0               0               0               0               0
Net cash used for investing activities               -26,283         -26,201         -11,817         -39,201        -204,364         -30,303

Cash Flows From Financing Activities
Debt issued                                            4,046               0               0               0          42,204               0
Debt repayment                                      -108,376         -36,629          -1,132             -44            -143            -138
Common stock repurchased                             -25,000               0         -50,000         -20,470         -14,137         -20,092
Excess tax benefit from stock based compe              5,233           1,795           1,569               0               0               0
Other financing activities                             7,338           2,024           3,158           1,465          -2,710           8,444
Net cash provided by (used for) financing           -116,759         -32,810         -46,405         -19,049          25,214         -11,786

Net change in cash                                   -41,861          39,750          12,494          30,389         -92,686          44,813
Cash at beginning of period                          135,227          93,366         133,116         145,610         175,999          79,484
Cash at end of period                                 93,366         133,116         145,610         175,999          83,313         124,297

Free Cash Flow
Operating cash flow                                  101,181          98,761          70,716          88,639          86,464          86,902
Capital expenditure                                  -25,783         -26,201         -11,817         -21,019         -33,043         -30,156
Free cash flow                                        75,398          72,560          58,899          67,620          53,421          56,746
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________





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Average to Current P/E Ratios
              (HMSY)     HMS Holdings Corp.

                               2014    2015    2016    2017    2018

          Annual Earnings:     0.45    0.16    0.28    0.43    0.47
Average Price During Year:    20.13   14.87   16.75   18.69   23.84

                P/E Ratio:    44.74   92.91   59.81   43.46   50.72

 Average 5-Year P/E Ratio  =  58.33
             Current Price =  30.52

Previous 5 Quarter Earnings:   0.07    0.30    0.07   -0.04    0.22

          Current Annualized (Last Four Quarters) Earnings =   0.25
                                                           ________
                                 Average PE / Current PE =     0.48
                                                           --------

                                      ...a number above 1.00 is good
                                                1.00 or below is bad


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Channeling Potential

 
The summary below includes a value for `Degree,' which refers on a
scale of 1 to 10 the range of a channel in the period under consi-
deration compared to the total range of price movement. It also looks
for the last closing price to be within the channel, otherwise zeroed.
The `Index' is the `Degree' weighted for volatility.  Generally, the
the higher the index, the more suitable is the stock for trading as
a `rolling stock' between channel high and low points.

Results for HMS HOLDINGS INC.:
Symbol? HMSY
Total Months Available:  25
       Months in Cycle?   4

Months Covered by Periods:  12

Period 1           Period 2          Period 3
   H1      L1        H2      L2        H3      L3
  22.43   14.88     33.85   21.46     38.15   26.21

RANGE   =  38.15  TO   14.88            Close =  30.52
CHANNEL =  26.21  TO   22.43           Degree =   2
Volatility =  12.39%                    Index =   2
Channel Chart



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2 out of 8 favorable, (negative opinion.)

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Short term outlook: Positive: Bright Green, Negative: Bright Red
Long term outlook: Postive: Dark Green, Negative: Dark Red.




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Recommendation

Decision Weighting Factors
FactorsWeighted Points
News + 1
Comparison + 1
Industry + 1
Bond Issue 0
Zenith Index + 1
Non-GAAP vs. GAAP Earnings - 1
Cash Flow + 1
Average to Current P/E - 1
Ratios + 1
Intrinsic Value DCF + 1
Fair Value Estimator - 1
Projected Earnings + 1
Research Reports + 1
Analysts + 1
Executive Perquisites - 1
Insider Activity - 1
Institutional Activity + 1
Management Reporting + 1
Short Interest - 1
Sentiment - 1
Standard & Poor's + 1
MACD Histogram Divergence + 1
Val Idea - 1
Stock Consultant - 1
Point & Figure - 1
Wall Street Analyzer + 1
Marketspace Chart + 1
Time Series Chart - 1
Neural Network + 1
Stock Options + 1
Ultimate Trading Systems + 1
Total + 8
Place 980 shares of HMS Holdings Inc. (HMSY) on the Active List.