04-11-2019: Calix, Inc. (CALX): Riding on the Edge

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Recommendation

Calix, Inc.

Calix, Inc. (CALX) provides software and consulting to help businesses communicate with customers. The idea is to save money on personnel and increase sales by communicating with and serving customers more accurately. Verizon is a big customer. This company, from its somewhat vague description on its website about exactly what it will do for you either by leasing its software or consulting, may be responsible for those long menu items when you first call a company for assistance.

Zack's put out a story on the grim outlook for the communication infrastructure industry (including CALX) reproduced in our "Stock News Updates" section, but also points out strong support from analysts and growth potential. CALX is riding high on analysts, but not researchers, and for a reason. Apparently the analysts see a turnaround coming and are projecting significant earnings after five straight years of losses. These losses have drained the resources of this company to the extent that one site points out that both interest coverage and quick ratios show that neither operating profits nor current assets alone are enough to satisfy interest obligations. Also it is to be pointed out that earnings are growing faster than revenues in a trend that cannot be sustained.

The company's website does present an extensive wordy message from CEO to shareholders indicating concern there, and executives seem reasonably but not over compensated.

There are several anamolies about this stock which should be pointed out. There is significant insider buying, a rarity in American corporations today. Also institutions are net acquirers and Dimensional Fund Advisors is prominent among them which we regard as a good sign.

We are looking at a big buyin on November 6th and a big selloff on February 6th. In both cases, 25% to 30% one-day jumps were due to surprise earnings reports, either better or worse than expected but both not good. The suggestion is to stay away from this stock near earnings report days where risk goes way up. The corporation's "guidance" is not particularly encouraging, but news for this stock consists mainly of encouraging public relations releases about new contracts of product introductions.

The Zenith Index is unacceptably low due to poor sentiment in the stock, the debt situation and profit margin problems, enterprise value, and negative earnings.

Our review suggested this corporation is "riding on the edge" of possible bankruptcy, but not all agree with us. In fact, technical factors (chart pattern) pushed our overall Decision Matrix into a moderate buy recommendation for the stock.



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Zenith Index

Under current market conditions, a Zenith Index Score of 1.20 or above is required for a positive rating on this factor. 1.21 -1.30 is considered acceptable, 1.30-1.40 is considered strong and
> 1.40 is considered exceptionally strong. Accounting statements in this section often contain mistakes, especially in earlier years' totals, but data is deemed sufficient for us to give a rating. More accurate financial statements follow in the next section.

Calix, Inc. (CALX)                                        Exchange: NYSE
2777 Orchard Parkway
San Jose, CA 95134               Sector: Technology
United States                    Industry: Communication Equipment

Calix, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides cloud and software
platforms, systems and services required to deliver the unified access
network. The company's cloud and software platforms, systems, and
services enable communication service providers (CSP) to provide a range
of services, from basic voice and data to advanced broadband services,
over legacy and next-generation access networks. Its premises systems
allow CSPs to master the complexity of the smart home and business, and
offer services to their device-enabled subscribers. The company offers
Calix Cloud, an analytics platform that leverages network data and
subscriber behavioral data to deliver intelligence to communications
professionals via role specific dashboards; Calix Marketing Cloud that
enables marketers to move away from a one-size-fits-all approach to
marketing and deliver personalized campaigns; Calix Support Cloud; EXOS,
a carrier class premises operating system and software platform that
supports residential, business, and mobile subscribers; and AXOS, a
software platform built for the specific needs of the access network.
The company markets its products in the United States, the Middle East,
Canada, Europe, the Caribbean, and internationally through its direct
sales force and resellers. Calix, Inc. was founded in 1999 and is
headquartered in San Jose, California.

Last Trade:   7.74                           52-Week Range:  11.30 -   6.00
Employees: 802                               Avg.Volume:     439,863 Shares

Corporate Governance:
P pillar scores are Audit: 1; Board: 5; Shareholder Rights: 7;
         (A lower number means less governance risk.)

EPS: -0.37    Dividend Amount: $ 0.00          Yield:  0.00%
             Ex-Dividend Date: N/A             Payout Ratio:   0.00

Key Statistics:

    Trailing P/E:   0.00              Forward P/E (est.):  13.61
                                           Target Price:  11.00

Qrtly Stock Price Growth (yoy):  16.39%               Beta:   0.00
Qrtly S&P Index   Growth (yoy): -16.20%        Short Ratio:   1.98%
    Qrtly Revenue Growth (yoy):  10.70%         Shares Out:  54160000
   Qrtly Earnings Growth (yoy):   0.00%

          Book Value:   2.82                    Debt/Equity:  20.92%
    Price/Book Value:   2.76        Operating Profit Margin:  -4.42%
         Price/Sales:   0.95                  Profit Margin:  -4.37%
         Market Cap:     420,311,000       Return on Equity: -13.00%
    Enterprise Value:     400,410,000      Return on Assets:  -3.99%

    Operating Cash Flow:      3,560,000
         Free Cash Flow:     14,780,000



Annual Income Statement:                          (All numbers in thousands)
  Period Ending                             12/31/2018  12/31/2017  12/31/2016

  Total Revenue                                441,320     510,367     458,787
  Cost of Revenue                              243,938     337,477     257,569
  Gross Profit                                 197,382     172,890     201,218

Operating Expenses:
  Research & Development                        89,963     127,541     106,869
  Selling, General & Administrative            126,932     122,656     118,867
  Non-Recurring Expenses                             0           0           0
  Other Operating Expenses                           0           0           0
  Total Operating Expenses                     460,833     587,674     485,006

Operating Income or Loss                       -19,513     -77,307     -26,219

Income from Continuing Operations:
  Total Other Income/Expenses Net                  745      -4,482        -836
  Earnings Before Interest & Taxes             -19,513     -77,307     -26,219
  Interest Expense                                -632        -160        -160
  Income Before Taxes                          -18,768     -81,789     -27,055
  Income Tax Expense                               530       1,243         347
  Minority Interest                                  0           0           0

Net Income from Continuing Op.s                -19,298     -83,032     -27,402

Non-recurring Events:
  Discontinued Operations                            0           0           0
  Extraordinary Items                                0           0           0
  Effect of Accounting Changes                       0           0           0
  Other Items                                        0           0           0
  Net Income                                   -19,298     -83,032     -27,402
  Preferred Stock & Other Adjustments                0           0           0

Net Income Avail to Common Shares              -19,298     -83,032     -27,402



Annual Cash Flow Statement:                   (All numbers in thousands)
  Period Ending                         12/31/2018    12/31/2017    12/31/2016

  Net Income                               -19,298       -83,032       -27,402

Operating Activities:
  Depreciation                               9,187        10,178        14,124
  Adjustments to Net Income                 11,095        12,642        14,667
  Changes in Accounts Recv'bls              13,858       -29,056        -4,185
  Changes in Liabilities                     3,170        -2,611        20,634
  Changes in Investories                   -20,639        13,016         3,122
  Changes in other Oper'g Acts               6,187        15,278         3,459

Total Cash Flow f Operations                 3,560       -62,772        24,419

Investing Activities:
  Capital Exenditures                      -10,426        -8,026        -9,839
  Investments                                    0        27,760        21,922
  Other Cash Flows fr Investing                  0             0             0

Total Cash Flows from Investing                -76        19,734        12,083

Financing Activities:
  Dividends Paid                                 0             0             0
  Sale of Purchase of Stock                      0             0             0
  Net Borrowings                                 0        30,000        30,000
  Other Cash Flows fr Financing               -115          -186             0

Total Cash Flows from Financing              7,492        31,990        -9,243

  Effect of Exchange Rate Chg                 -477           464          -526

Change in Cash & Cash Equiv.                10,499       -10,584        26,733



Annual Balance Sheets:                              (All Numbers in Thousands)
  Period Ending                          12/31/2018    12/31/2017    12/31/2016
Current Assets:
  Cash & Cash Equivalents                    49,646        39,775        50,359
  Short Term Investments                          0             0             0
  Net Receivables                            67,026        80,392        51,336
  Inventory                                  50,151        31,529        44,545
  Other Current Assets                          628             0        34,763
  Total Current Assets                      167,451       151,696       181,003

  Long-Term Investments                           0             0             0
  Property, Plant & Equipt                   24,945        15,681        17,984
  Goodwill                                  116,175       116,175       116,175
  Intangible Assets                               0             0             0
  Accumulated Amortization                        0             0             0
  Other Assets                                1,203           759         1,994
  Deferred LT Asset Charges                       0             0             0

Total Assets                                317,080       295,070       355,475

Current Liabilities:
  Accounts Payable                           40,209        35,977        23,827
  Current Portion LT Debt                         0             0             0
  Other Current Liabilities                  27,722        25,631        62,121
  Total Current Liabilities                 143,678       128,332        121,396

  Long Term Debt                                  0             0             0
  Other Liabilities                          21,468        21,775        21,115
  Deferred LT Liab. Charges                       0             0             0
  Minority Interest                               0             0             0
  Negative Goodwill                               0             0             0

Total Liabilities                           165,146       150,107       142,511

Stockholder Equity:
  Misc. Options, Warrants                         0             0             0
  Redeemable Preferred Stock                      0             0             0
  Preferred Stock                                 0             0             0
  Common Stock                                1,482         1,421         1,368
  Retained Earnings                        -684,882      -667,357      -584,325
  Treasury Stock                            -40,739       -40,155       -40,642
  Capital Surplus                           876,073       851,054       836,563
  Other Stockhohlder Equity                    -753          -169          -656
  Total Stockholder Equity                  151,934       144,963       212,964

Net Tangible Assets                          35,759        28,788        96,789


Calix, Inc. (CALX)                          [Indices near +3.0, near zero,
                                            or < zero bear special attention.]
P/E Ratio Tests:
P/E Ratio < 28?            0.0000          P/E Ratio > 5?             0.0000
P/E Ratio Vs Growth Rate:  0.0000          Forward P/E Ratio < 28?    2.0573
Price/Sales Ratio < 2.3?   2.4211          Inventory/Sales < 5%?      0.4400
Sales < $1 Billion?        2.2659          Operating Margin < 7.5%?  -1.6968

Balance Sheet Tests:
Debt/Equity < 0.40?        1.9120          Long-Term Debt Service:    3.0000
LTD Being Reduced?         0.0000          Short-Term Debt Service:   3.0000
Current Ratio > 2?         0.5827          Working Capital >= 1.5?    1.3042
Leverage Ratio < 20%?      3.0000          Debt/Assets < 1?           3.0000
Quick Ratio > 1?           3.0000          Inventory Turnover > 1?    0.1088
Share Equity Increase:     1.7288          Market Cap.< 1.5 Billion?  3.0000
                                           Intangibles < 3% Assets?   0.0819
Income Tests:
Profit Margin < 7.5%?     -0.5827          EPS Annual Growth > 10%?   0.4303
Dividend Yield > 2.0%?     0.0000          EPS 3-yr Growth > 15?      0.2130
Enterprise Value/Revenue   0.9523          EPS Growth Consistent?     0.0000
Enterprise Value/EBITDA:  -3.0000          Collection < 45 days?      0.8118
EPS Qrtly Growth > 10%?    0.0000          Gross Pft/Cur. LTD > 1?    3.0000
                                           Borrowing Int. Rate < 6%?  3.0000
Stock Performance Tests:
Volatility > 25%?          1.8761          % Held by Insiders < 5%?   0.3036
Beta > 1.25?               0.0000          % Held by Institut. < 50?  0.7728
50 Da MA > 200 Da MA?     -0.2752          % Held by Institut. > 30?  2.1567
52-Wk Change vs. S&P 500:  1.5318          Short Ratio > 5?           0.3960
Price/Book Value < 3?      1.0930          Short % of Float > 20?     0.0845
Return on Assets > 17%?   -0.2347          Average Volume > 100,000?  3.0000

Cash Flow Tests:
Oper. C.F. > Lever'd C.F:  0.2409          Positive Free Cash Flow?   3.0000
Positive Oper. Cash Flow?  3.0000          Price to C.F.Ratio < 14?:  0.3707
                                           Cash Flow / Assets > 10%?  0.3510

CALX   Calix, Inc.                         Overall Zenith Index:      1.0549


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Financial Statements

CALIX INC  (CALX)                           INCOME STATEMENT

Fiscal year ends in December. USD in thousan         2014-12         2015-12         2016-12         2017-12         2018-12             TTM           

Revenue                                              401,227         407,463         458,787         510,367         441,320         441,320
Cost of revenue                                      223,438         217,034         257,569         337,477         243,938         243,938
Gross profit                                         177,789         190,429         201,218         172,890         197,382         197,382


Operating expenses
Research and development                              80,311          89,714         106,869         127,541          89,963          89,963
Sales, General and administrative                    107,654         117,017         125,267         122,656         126,932         126,932
Restructuring, merger and acquisition                      0               0               0           4,249           5,705           5,705
Other operating expenses                              10,208          10,208           1,701          -4,249          -5,705          -5,705
Total operating expenses                             198,173         216,939         233,837         250,197         216,895         216,895

Operating income                                     -20,384         -26,510         -32,619         -77,307         -19,513         -19,513
Interest Expense                                         806           1,144             585               0               0               0
Other income (expense)                                   957           1,856           6,149          -4,482             745             745
Income before taxes                                  -20,233         -25,798         -27,055         -81,789         -18,768         -18,768
Provision for income taxes                               581             535             347           1,243             530             530
Net income from continuing operations                -20,814         -26,333         -27,402         -83,032         -19,298         -19,298
Net income                                           -20,814         -26,333         -27,402         -83,032         -19,298         -19,298
Net income available to common shareholders          -20,814         -26,333         -27,402         -83,032         -19,298         -19,298

Earnings per share
Basic                                                  -0.41           -0.51           -0.56           -1.66           -0.37           -0.37 
Diluted                                                -0.41           -0.51           -0.56           -1.66           -0.37           -0.37 

Weighted average shares outstanding
Basic                                                 50,808          51,489          48,730          50,155          52,609          52,609
Diluted                                               50,808          51,489          48,730          50,155          52,609          52,609

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


CALIX INC  (CALX)                           BALANCE SHEET

Fiscal year ends in December. USD in thousan         2014-12         2015-12         2016-12         2017-12         2018-12             

Assets

Current assets

Cash

Short-term investments                                62,850          49,964          27,748               0               0
Total cash                                           111,679          73,590          78,107          39,775          49,646

Receivables                                           30,744          47,155          51,336          80,392          67,026
Inventories                                           46,753          47,667          44,545          31,529          50,151
Prepaid expenses                                      12,936           9,470          10,571           8,364           7,306
Other current assets                                   5,375           4,918          34,763           2,395             628
Total current assets                                 207,487         182,800         219,322         162,455         174,757

Non-current assets

Property, plant and equipment
Gross property, plant and equipment                   79,523          75,158          83,615          80,870          79,380
Accumulated Depreciation                             -59,379         -58,009         -65,631         -65,189         -54,435
Net property, plant and equipment                     20,144          17,149          17,984          15,681          24,945

Goodwill                                             116,175         116,175         116,175         116,175         116,175
Intangible assets                                     25,179           6,618             813               0               0
Other long-term assets                                 1,236           1,144           1,181             759           1,203
Total non-current assets                             162,734         141,086         136,153         132,615         142,323

Total assets                                         370,221         323,886         355,475         295,070         317,080 

Liabilities and stockholders' equity

Liabilities

Current liabilities
Short-term debt                                            0               0               0          30,000          30,000
Accounts payable                                      23,629          19,603          23,827          35,977          40,209
Taxes payable                                            666           1,227             930           1,778           1,288
Accrued liabilities                                   22,995          20,476          28,518          30,888          29,787
Deferred revenues                                     12,722          12,124          48,580          14,126          21,703
Other current liabilities                             15,782          13,809          19,541          15,563          20,691
Total current liabilities                             75,794          67,239         121,396         128,332         143,678

Non-current liabilities
Deferred revenues                                     19,393          19,569          20,237          20,645          17,496
Other long-term liabilities                            2,443           1,293             878           1,130           3,972
Total non-current liabilities                         21,836          20,862          21,115          21,775          21,468

Total liabilities                                     97,630          88,101         142,511         150,107         165,146 

Stockholders' equity

Common stock                                           1,291           1,326           1,368           1,421           1,482
Additional paid-in capital                           801,810         818,754         836,563         851,054         876,073
Retained earnings                                   -530,590        -556,923        -584,325        -667,357        -684,882
Treasury stock                                             0         -27,177         -39,986         -39,986         -39,986
Accumulated other comprehensive income                    80            -195            -656            -169            -753
Total stockholders' equity                           272,591         235,785         212,964         144,963         151,934
Total liabilities and stockholders' equity           370,221         323,886         355,475         295,070         317,080

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


CALIX INC  (CALX)                           Statement of CASH FLOW

Fiscal year ends in December. USD in thousan         2014-12         2015-12         2016-12         2017-12         2018-12             TTM           

Cash Flows From Operating Activities
Net income                                           -20,814         -26,333         -27,402         -83,032         -19,298         -19,298
Depreciation & amortization                           27,824          28,823          14,124          10,991           9,187           9,187
Amortization of debt discount/premium and is             574             907             382              -6               0               0
Investments losses (gains)                                -1               0               0               0               0               0
Stock based compensation                              16,017          13,805          14,285          12,368          17,473          17,473
Change in working capital                             14,425         -22,567          23,030          -3,373           2,576           2,576
Accounts receivable                                   12,776         -16,411          -4,185         -29,056          13,858          13,858
Inventory                                              4,319            -915           3,122          13,016         -20,639         -20,639
Prepaid expenses                                      -5,908           2,889          -1,197           2,842           3,579           3,579
Accounts payable                                         467          -4,021           4,236          11,759           4,596           4,596
Accrued liabilities                                    7,440          -3,781          34,913         -20,184           2,791           2,791
Other working capital                                 -4,669            -328         -13,859          18,250          -1,609          -1,609
Other non-cash items                                      50              24               0             280          -6,378          -6,378
Net cash provided by operating activities             38,075          -5,341          24,419         -62,772           3,560           3,560

Cash Flows From Investing Activities
Investments in property, plant, and equipmen         -11,961          -7,278          -9,839          -8,026         -10,426         -10,426
Acquisitions, net                                          0               0               0               0          10,350          10,350
Purchases of investments                             -67,698         -60,002         -16,478          -8,732               0               0
Sales/Maturities of investments                        4,215          71,945          38,400          36,492               0               0
Net cash used for investing activities               -75,444           4,665          12,083          19,734             -76             -76

Cash Flows From Financing Activities
Debt issued                                                0               0               0         171,268         557,915         557,915
Debt repayment                                             0               0               0        -141,268        -557,915        -557,915
Common stock issued                                    4,627               0               0               0               0               0
Common stock repurchased                                   0         -27,177         -12,809               0               0               0
Other financing activities                            -1,052           3,036           3,566           1,990           7,492           7,492
Net cash provided by (used for) financing              3,575         -24,141          -9,243          31,990           7,492           7,492

Effect of exchange rate changes                         -124            -386            -526             464            -477            -477
Net change in cash                                   -33,918         -25,203          26,733         -10,584          10,499          10,499
Cash at beginning of period                           82,747          48,829          23,626          50,359          39,775          39,775
Cash at end of period                                 48,829          23,626          50,359          39,775          50,274          50,274

Free Cash Flow
Operating cash flow                                   38,075          -5,341          24,419         -62,772           3,560           3,560
Capital expenditure                                  -11,961          -7,278          -9,839          -8,026         -10,426         -10,426
Free cash flow                                        26,114         -12,619          14,580         -70,798          -6,866          -6,866
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________





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Average to Current P/E Ratios
              (CALX)     Calix Inc.

                               2014    2015    2016    2017    2018

          Annual Earnings:    -0.41   -0.51   -0.56   -1.66   -0.37
Average Price During Year:     8.94    8.13    7.22    6.50    7.33

                P/E Ratio:    21.80   15.94   12.90    3.92   19.82

 Average 5-Year P/E Ratio  =  14.87
             Current Price =  7.74

Previous 5 Quarter Earnings:  -0.25   -0.23   -0.05    0.02   -0.10

          Current Annualized (Last Four Quarters) Earnings =  -0.13
                                                           ________
                                 Average PE / Current PE =    -0.25
                                                           --------

                                      ...a number above 1.00 is good
                                                1.00 or below is bad


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Financial Ratios

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Intrinsic Value by Discounted Cash Flow Method:

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Institutional Orders to Buy or Sell:

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Ownership:

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Sentiment

sentiment

Zenith uses the "sentiment" score above or below 50 to award a positive or negative point in the Decision Matrix.

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Short Interest Ratio

As the short interest rises as a percentage of average daily share volume (Days to Cover), this is considered a measure of negative sentiment. Similarly, a decrease in that percentage is considered positive sentiment.

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Management's Discussion of Results of Operations Excerpts

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Channeling Potential

 
The summary below includes a value for `Degree,' which refers on a
scale of 1 to 10 the range of a channel in the period under consi-
deration compared to the total range of price movement. It also looks
for the last closing price to be within the channel, otherwise zeroed.
The `Index' is the `Degree' weighted for volatility.  Generally, the
the higher the index, the more suitable is the stock for trading as
a `rolling stock' between channel high and low points.

Results for CALIX INC.:
Symbol? CALX
Total Months Available:  13
       Months in Cycle?   4

Months Covered by Periods:  12

Period 1           Period 2          Period 3
   H1      L1        H2      L2        H3      L3
   8.00    6.00     10.75    6.20     11.30    7.35

RANGE   =  11.30  TO    6.00            Close =   7.74
CHANNEL =   8.00  TO    7.35           Degree =   1
Volatility =   8.40%                    Index =   0
Channel Chart



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MACD Histogram Divergence

The theory is that connecting the two most recent peaks or valleys of the MACD histogram will signal the direction of the next major move.



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Intraday Chart

2 Days:



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Val Idea

2 out of 8 favorable, (negative opinion.)

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Neural Network Prediction

"Neurostock" can only track long trades. Therefore its performance, as tracked by itself on stocks which are consistently falling, may not appear as good as it could if each "sell" signal were a "short sale."

Neural Chart
Heading
Neural Trades Neural Prediction



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Ultimate Trading Systems

2 out of 3 of the ultimate systems favor an upmove.


System Below:
Short term outlook: Positive: Bright Green, Negative: Bright Red
Long term outlook: Postive: Dark Green, Negative: Dark Red.




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Recommendation

Decision Weighting Factors
FactorsWeighted Points
News - 1
Comparison + 1
Industry + 1
Bond Issue 0
Zenith Index - 1
Non-GAAP vs. GAAP Earnings + 1
Cash Flow + 1
Average to Current P/E - 1
Ratios - 1
Intrinsic Value DCF - 1
Fair Value Estimator - 1
Projected Earnings + 1
Research Reports - 1
Analysts + 1
Executive Perquisites + 1
Insider Activity + 1
Institutional Activity + 1
Management Reporting + 1
Short Interest + 1
Sentiment - 1
Standard & Poor's - 1
MACD Histogram Divergence - 1
Val Idea - 1
Stock Consultant 0
Point & Figure - 1
Wall Street Analyzer + 1
Marketspace Chart + 1
Time Series Chart + 1
Neural Network + 1
Stock Options + 1
Ultimate Trading Systems + 1
Total + 5
Place 3,890 shares of Calix, Inc. (CALX) on the Active List.