02-22-2019: Abercrombie & Fitch Coimpany (ANF): Too Much Emphasis on Youth?

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Recommendation

Abercrombie & Fitch Coimpany

Abercrombie & Fitch Company (ANF) is what we call an "old line" company, founded in the late 1800's and based in Ohio. It started out specializing in clothing related to sporting goods. It graduated from catalog operations to opening many stores in the last half of the 20th century. Throughout its history it has been battling trends in fashions and retail, trying this and that with a lot of ups and downs. It has come to the point where it has more than 850 stores, mostly all over the U.S., but a few in foreign countries. Of late, it has been opening very few new stores.

There is a universal problem with retail clothing stores experienced by many retailers. Often customers buy through the Internet where they can get better selection and fit, even to the point where some retailers like Gap Stores and possibly even Abercrombie will partner with Amazon. Abercrombie caters to youth, mainly teens and kids fashions, and this trend that was followed by many competitors has run into trouble as that line of business has experienced tapering off in customer interest.

We note that Abercrombie's website is mainly for selling stuff, and shareholder concern in some ways appears to be lacking but not in others. For example, the stock pays nearly a 4% dividend. But we see no CEO Letter to Shareholders, and familiarity with management by shareholders appears to us to be lacking. Institutions own a remarkably smaller percentage of outstanding shares than with most other listed stocks, although Dimensional Fund Advisors (DFA) is among major holders, which we regard as a good sign. Institutions are net acquirers. The company has bounced back from losses before, and has some showing not only for 2016 and 2017, but also for the last four quarters taken together.

There is a lot of competition in teen fashions, and Abercrombie still seems mainly retail store based, whereas the trend is moving away from retail department stores. A&F has several "campaigns" going to attract buyers, but they didn't catch us as winners.

The stock may be settling into a 16-22 trading range, where we think the share price is fairly low risk at those levels. We think institutions agree with us. Despite losses the company has a strong Zenith Index, indicating strong fundamentals and balance sheet. We think the company will manage its way out of difficulties, but it is not going to the moon any time soon. If it would concentrate more upon adults and less upon kids, we think that would help. In that regard, it seems to have lost its early roots selling clothes made out of furs collected by trappers.

Management appears to us to be excessively compensated, but other than that, the company appears to be well run insofar as it can be in a difficult merchandising environment for teen fashions. The emphasis on youth seems illogical to us if one is to chase where the money is, with older customers more likely to spend more on clothing. But the trend to informal wear in the workplace certainly has not helped department store retailers of clothing.

A number of reactive trading signals appear to be historically reliable making this a good trading stock.



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Zenith Index

Under current market conditions, a Zenith Index Score of 1.20 or above is required for a positive rating on this factor. 1.21 -1.30 is considered acceptable, 1.30-1.40 is considered strong and
> 1.40 is considered exceptionally strong. Accounting statements in this section often contain mistakes, especially in earlier years' totals, but data is deemed sufficient for us to give a rating. More accurate financial statements follow in the next section.

Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (ANF)                             Exchange: NYSE
6301 Fitch Path
New Albany, OH 43054             Sector: Consumer Cyclical
United States                    Industry: Apparel

Abercrombie & Fitch Co., through its subsidiaries, operates as a
specialty retailer. The Company operates in two segments, Hollister and
Abercrombie. It offers apparel, intimates, personal care products, and
accessories for men, women, and kids under the Hollister, Abercrombie &
Fitch, abercrombie kids, and Gilly Hicks brand names. As of August 30,
2018, it operated approximately 850 stores in North America, Europe,
Asia, and the Middle East. The company sells products through its stores
and direct-to-consumer operations; various third-party wholesale,
franchise, and licensing arrangements; and e-commerce sites, including
abercrombie.com and hollisterco.com. Abercrombie & Fitch Co. was founded
in 1892 and is headquartered in New Albany, Ohio.

Last Trade:  20.69                           52-Week Range:  29.69 -  15.28
Employees: 7,000                             Avg.Volume:   2,674,598 Shares

Corporate Governance:
Pillar scores are Audit: 1; Board: 1; Shareholder Rights: 2; Compensation: 4.
         (A lower number means less governance risk.)

EPS:  0.75    Dividend Amount: $ 0.80          Yield:  3.87%
             Ex-Dividend Date: Dec 5, 2018     Payout Ratio: 106.67

Key Statistics:

    Trailing P/E:  27.64              Forward P/E (est.):  18.94
                                           Target Price:  20.31

Qrtly Stock Price Growth (yoy):  -3.77%               Beta:   0.00
Qrtly S&P Index   Growth (yoy):   0.20%        Short Ratio:   7.24%
    Qrtly Revenue Growth (yoy):   2.34%         Shares Out:  65849999.999
   Qrtly Earnings Growth (yoy): 137.40%

          Book Value:  17.08                    Debt/Equity:  26.11%
    Price/Book Value:   1.21        Operating Profit Margin:   4.06%
         Price/Sales:   0.37                  Profit Margin:   1.43%
         Market Cap:   1,360,000,000       Return on Equity:   4.86%
    Enterprise Value:   1,150,000,000      Return on Assets:   4.02%

    Operating Cash Flow:    331,560,000
         Free Cash Flow:    137,380,000



Annual Income Statement:                          (All numbers in thousands)
  Period Ending                             02/3/2018      1/28/2017   1/30/2016

  Total Revenue                              3,492,690   3,326,740   3,518,680
  Cost of Revenue                            1,408,848   1,298,172   1,361,137
  Gross Profit                               2,083,842   2,028,568   2,157,543

Operating Expenses:
  Research & Development                             0           0           0
  Selling, General & Administrative          1,999,269   2,037,662   2,056,303
  Non-Recurring Expenses                             0           0           0
  Other Operating Expenses                      -9,938     -13,530      -5,741
  Total Operating Expenses                   3,398,179   3,322,304   3,411,699

Operating Income or Loss                        94,511       4,436     106,981

Income from Continuing Operations:
  Total Other Income/Expenses Net              -39,350      -7,914     -52,391
  Earnings Before Interest & Taxes              94,511       4,436     106,981
  Interest Expense                             -22,973     -23,078     -22,601
  Income Before Taxes                           55,161      -3,478      54,590
  Income Tax Expense                            44,636     -11,196      16,031
  Minority Interest                             10,092       8,604       4,659

Net Income from Continuing Op.s                 10,525       7,718      38,559

Non-recurring Events:
  Discontinued Operations                            0           0           0
  Extraordinary Items                                0           0           0
  Effect of Accounting Changes                       0           0           0
  Other Items                                        0           0           0
  Net Income                                     7,094       3,956      35,576
  Preferred Stock & Other Adjustments                0           0           0

Net Income Avail to Common Shares                7,094       3,956      35,576



Annual Cash Flow Statement:                   (All numbers in thousands)
  Period Ending                         02/3/2018            1/28/2017     1/30/
2016

  Net Income                                10,525         7,718        38,559

Operating Activities:
  Depreciation                             194,549       195,414       213,680
  Adjustments to Net Income                 62,726         5,941        39,551
  Changes in Accounts Recv'bls                   0             0             0
  Changes in Liabilities                    13,622       -32,647        51,050
  Changes in Investories                   -18,298        24,452        21,253
  Changes in other Oper'g Acts              12,313        -3,281        -6,074

Total Cash Flow f Operations               285,704       185,307       310,009

Investing Activities:
  Capital Exenditures                     -107,001      -140,844      -143,199
  Investments                                    0             0             0
  Other Cash Flows fr Investing                  0        -9,523             0

Total Cash Flows from Investing           -106,798      -136,746      -122,567

Financing Activities:
  Dividends Paid                           -54,392       -54,066       -55,145
  Sale of Purchase of Stock                      0             0             0
  Net Borrowings                           -15,000       -25,000        -6,000
  Other Cash Flows fr Financing             -5,421        -5,443             0

Total Cash Flows from Financing            -74,813       -84,509      -106,943

  Effect of Exchange Rate Chg               24,276        -5,441       -12,629

Change in Cash & Cash Equiv.               128,369       -41,389        67,870



Annual Balance Sheets:                              (All Numbers in Thousands)
  Period Ending                          02/3/2018           1/28/2017     1/30/
2016
Current Assets:
  Cash & Cash Equivalents                   675,558       547,189       588,578
  Short Term Investments                          0             0             0
  Net Receivables                            79,724        93,384        56,868
  Inventory                                 424,393       399,795       436,701
  Other Current Assets                       84,863        98,932        96,833
  Total Current Assets                    1,264,538     1,139,300     1,178,980

  Long-Term Investments                           0             0             0
  Property, Plant & Equipt                  738,182       824,738       894,178
  Goodwill                                        0             0             0
  Intangible Assets                          26,147        27,092        28,057
  Accumulated Amortization                        0             0             0
  Other Assets                              296,825       304,627       331,824
  Deferred LT Asset Charges                  64,039        91,141        89,677

Total Assets                              2,325,692     2,295,757     2,433,039

Current Liabilities:
  Accounts Payable                          168,868       187,017       184,175
  Current Portion LT Debt                         0             0             0
  Other Current Liabilities                  73,293        92,477       108,804
  Total Current Liabilities                 507,546       486,000        534,703

  Long Term Debt                            300,339       309,389       333,675
  Other Liabilities                         265,336       248,329       268,939
  Deferred LT Liab. Charges                       0             0             0
  Minority Interest                          10,092         8,604         4,659
  Negative Goodwill                               0             0             0

Total Liabilities                         1,073,221     1,043,718     1,137,317

Stockholder Equity:
  Misc. Options, Warrants                         0             0             0
  Redeemable Preferred Stock                      0             0             0
  Preferred Stock                                 0             0             0
  Common Stock                                1,033         1,033         1,033
  Retained Earnings                       2,420,552     2,474,703     2,530,196
  Treasury Stock                         -1,585,557    -1,628,891    -1,647,195
  Capital Surplus                           406,351       396,590       407,029
  Other Stockhohlder Equity                 -95,054      -121,302      -114,619
  Total Stockholder Equity                1,242,379     1,243,435     1,291,063

Net Tangible Assets                       1,216,232     1,216,343     1,263,006


Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (ANF)               [Indices near +3.0, near zero,
                                            or < zero bear special attention.]
P/E Ratio Tests:
P/E Ratio < 28?            1.0130          P/E Ratio > 5?             1.0000
P/E Ratio Vs Growth Rate:  3.0000          Forward P/E Ratio < 28?    1.4784
Price/Sales Ratio < 2.3?   3.0000          Inventory/Sales < 5%?      0.4115
Sales < $1 Billion?        0.2863          Operating Margin < 7.5%?   1.8473

Balance Sheet Tests:
Debt/Equity < 0.40?        1.5320          Long-Term Debt Service:    3.0000
LTD Being Reduced?         3.0000          Short-Term Debt Service:  -3.0000
Current Ratio > 2?         1.2457          Working Capital >= 1.5?    0.6101
Leverage Ratio < 20%?      0.8421          Debt/Assets < 1?           3.0000
Quick Ratio > 1?           3.0000          Inventory Turnover > 1?    0.1249
Share Equity Increase:     1.9623          Market Cap.< 1.5 Billion?  1.1029
                                           Intangibles < 3% Assets?   2.6684
Income Tests:
Profit Margin < 7.5%?      0.1907          EPS Annual Growth > 10%?   0.0558
Dividend Yield > 2.0%?     0.5168          EPS 3-yr Growth > 15?      0.7522
Enterprise Value/Revenue   0.3893          EPS Growth Consistent?     0.0000
Enterprise Value/EBITDA:   3.0000          Collection < 45 days?      3.0000
EPS Qrtly Growth > 10%?    0.0007          Gross Pft/Cur. LTD > 1?    3.0000
                                           Borrowing Int. Rate < 6%? -0.7844
Stock Performance Tests:
Volatility > 25%?          1.9414          % Held by Insiders < 5%?   3.0000
Beta > 1.25?               0.0000          % Held by Institut. < 50?  0.4345
50 Da MA > 200 Da MA?      0.0217          % Held by Institut. > 30?  3.0000
52-Wk Change vs. S&P 500: -1.6111          Short Ratio > 5?           1.4480
Price/Book Value < 3?      2.4766          Short % of Float > 20?     1.5285
Return on Assets > 17%?    0.2365          Average Volume > 100,000?  3.0000

Cash Flow Tests:
Oper. C.F. > Lever'd C.F:  2.4135          Positive Free Cash Flow?   3.0000
Positive Oper. Cash Flow?  3.0000          Price to C.F.Ratio < 14?:  3.0000
                                           Cash Flow / Assets > 10%?  2.0094

ANF    Abercrombie & Fitch Co.             Overall Zenith Index:      1.4468


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Financial Statements

ABERCROMBIE & FITCH CO CLASS A  (ANF)       INCOME STATEMENT

Fiscal year ends in January. USD in thousand         2014-01         2015-01         2016-01         2017-01         2018-01             TTM           

Revenue                                            4,116,897       3,744,030       3,518,680       3,326,740       3,492,690       3,627,665
Cost of revenue                                    1,541,462       1,430,460       1,361,137       1,298,172       1,408,848       1,453,211
Gross profit                                       2,575,435       2,313,570       2,157,543       2,028,568       2,083,842       2,174,454


Operating expenses
Sales, General and administrative                  2,389,471       2,161,871       2,074,535       2,031,662       2,014,339       2,038,919
Other operating expenses                                   0               0               0               0         -16,938         -16,934
Total operating expenses                           2,389,471       2,161,871       2,074,535       2,031,662       1,997,401       2,021,985

Operating income                                     185,964         151,699          83,008          -3,094          86,441         152,469
Interest Expense                                           0               0          22,601          23,078          22,973          23,192
Other income (expense)                              -112,687         -52,545          -5,817          22,694          -8,307          -4,244
Income before income taxes                            73,277          99,154          54,590          -3,478          55,161         125,033
Provision for income taxes                            18,649          47,333          16,031         -11,196          44,636          69,056
Minority interest                                          0               0           2,983           3,762           3,431           4,162
Other income                                               0               0           2,983           3,762           3,431           4,162
Net income from continuing operations                 54,628          51,821          38,559           7,718          10,525          55,977
Other                                                      0               0          -2,983          -3,762          -3,431          -4,162
Net income                                            54,628          51,821          35,576           3,956           7,094          51,815
Net income available to common shareholders           54,628          51,821          35,576           3,956           7,094          51,815

Earnings per share
Basic                                                   0.71            0.72            0.52            0.06            0.10            0.75 
Diluted                                                 0.69            0.71            0.51            0.06            0.10            0.75 

Weighted average shares outstanding
Basic                                                 77,157          71,785          68,880          67,878          68,391          67,962
Diluted                                               78,666          72,937          69,417          68,284          69,403          68,974

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


ABERCROMBIE & FITCH CO CLASS A  (ANF)       BALANCE SHEET

Fiscal year ends in January. USD in thousand         2014-01         2015-01         2016-01         2017-01         2018-01             

Assets

Current assets

Cash

Total cash                                           600,116         520,708         588,578         547,189         675,558

Receivables                                           67,965          52,910          56,868          93,384          79,724
Inventories                                          530,192         460,794         436,701         399,795         424,393
Deferred income taxes                                 21,835          13,986               0               0               0
Other current assets                                 100,458         116,574          96,833          98,932          84,863
Total current assets                               1,320,566       1,164,972       1,178,980       1,139,300       1,264,538

Non-current assets

Property, plant and equipment
Land                                                  37,453          37,473          37,451          36,875          36,875
Fixtures and equipment                               689,815         653,929         682,013         691,918         688,529
Other properties                                   2,158,444       2,105,848       2,072,973       2,043,346       2,096,305
Property and equipment, at cost                    2,885,712       2,797,250       2,792,437       2,772,139       2,821,709
Accumulated Depreciation                          -1,754,371      -1,830,249      -1,898,259      -1,947,401      -2,083,527
Property, plant and equipment, net                 1,131,341         967,001         894,178         824,738         738,182

Intangible assets                                          0               0               0               0          26,147
Deferred income taxes                                 97,587          96,999          89,677          91,141          64,039
Other long-term assets                               301,503         276,195         270,204         240,578         232,786
Total non-current assets                           1,530,431       1,340,195       1,254,059       1,156,457       1,061,154

Total assets                                       2,850,997       2,505,167       2,433,039       2,295,757       2,325,692 

Liabilities and stockholders' equity

Liabilities

Current liabilities
Short-term debt                                       15,000           2,102               0               0               0
Accounts payable                                     130,715         141,685         184,175         187,017         168,868
Taxes payable                                        107,608          67,433          43,191          39,940          47,449
Accrued liabilities                                  228,856         191,723         284,034         201,732         271,478
Other current liabilities                             86,043          83,013          23,303          57,311          19,751
Total current liabilities                            568,222         485,956         534,703         486,000         507,546

Non-current liabilities
Long-term debt                                       120,000         291,310         286,235         262,992         249,686
Capital leases                                        60,726          50,521          47,440          46,397          50,653
Accrued liabilities                                  114,001          99,108          90,445          82,241          80,532
Minority interest                                          0               0           4,659           8,604          10,092
Other long-term liabilities                          258,555         188,571         178,494         166,088         184,804
Total non-current liabilities                        553,282         629,510         607,273         566,322         575,767

Total liabilities                                  1,121,504       1,115,466       1,141,976       1,052,322       1,083,313 

Stockholders' equity

Common stock                                           1,033           1,033           1,033           1,033           1,033
Additional paid-in capital                           433,620         434,137         407,029         396,590         406,351
Retained earnings                                  2,556,270       2,550,673       2,530,196       2,474,703       2,420,552
Treasury stock                                    -1,240,513      -1,512,562      -1,532,576      -1,507,589      -1,490,503
Accumulated other comprehensive income               -20,917         -83,580        -114,619        -121,302         -95,054
Total stockholders' equity                         1,729,493       1,389,701       1,291,063       1,243,435       1,242,379
Total liabilities and stockholders' equity         2,850,997       2,505,167       2,433,039       2,295,757       2,325,692

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


ABERCROMBIE & FITCH CO CLASS A  (ANF)       Statement of CASH FLOW

Fiscal year ends in January. USD in thousand         2014-01         2015-01         2016-01         2017-01         2018-01             TTM           

Cash Flows From Operating Activities
Depreciation & amortization                          235,240         226,421         213,680         195,414         194,549         184,665
Amortization of debt discount/premium and is         -45,895         -38,437         -28,619         -24,557         -22,149         -21,768
Investment/asset impairment charges                   84,655          47,084          18,209           7,930          14,391          14,429
Deferred income taxes                                -41,263               0               0          -7,866               0               0
Stock based compensation                              53,516          23,027          28,359          22,120          22,108          23,241
Inventory                                           -103,304          62,854          21,253          24,452         -18,298         -10,173
Accounts payable                                           0               0               0               0          13,622          45,860
Income taxes payable                                 -55,456         -34,659         -45,027               0          13,698          10,434
Other working capital                                -44,060         -46,283          44,976         -44,456          12,313         -27,700
Other non-cash items                                  92,060          72,473          57,110          11,554          55,470         112,577
Net cash provided by operating activities            175,493         312,480         309,941         184,591         285,704         331,565

Cash Flows From Investing Activities
Investments in property, plant, and equipmen        -163,924        -174,624        -143,199        -140,844        -107,001        -119,469
Property, plant, and equipment reductions                  0               0          11,109           4,098             203               0
Other investing charges                               -9,937            -450           9,523               0               0               0
Net cash used for investing activities              -173,861        -175,074        -122,567        -136,746        -106,798        -119,469

Cash Flows From Financing Activities
Long-term debt issued                                150,000         357,000               0               0               0               0
Long-term debt repayment                             -15,000        -195,750          -6,000         -25,000         -15,000               0
Repurchases of treasury stock                       -115,806        -285,038         -50,033               0               0         -68,670
Cash dividends paid                                  -61,923         -57,362         -55,145         -54,066         -54,392         -54,166
Other financing activities                             1,898            -303           4,303          -4,727          -5,421         -26,759
Net cash provided by (used for) financing            -40,831        -181,453        -106,875         -83,793         -74,813        -149,595

Effect of exchange rate changes                       -4,190         -35,361         -12,629          -5,441          24,276          -3,453
Net change in cash                                   -43,389         -79,408          67,870         -41,389         128,369          59,048
Cash at beginning of period                          643,505         600,116         520,708         588,578         547,189         567,632
Cash at end of period                                600,116         520,708         588,578         547,189         675,558         626,680

Free Cash Flow
Operating cash flow                                  175,493         312,480         309,941         184,591         285,704         331,565
Capital expenditure                                 -163,924        -174,624        -143,199        -140,844        -107,001        -119,469
Free cash flow                                        11,569         137,856         166,742          43,747         178,703         212,096
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________





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Average to Current P/E Ratios
              (ANF)     Abercrombie & Fitch Co.

                               2014    2015    2016    2017    2018

          Annual Earnings:     0.69    0.71    0.51    0.06    0.10
Average Price During Year:    37.30   22.18   23.02   12.04   22.81

                P/E Ratio:    54.06   31.24   45.13  200.69  228.09

 Average 5-Year P/E Ratio  = 111.85
             Current Price =  20.53

Previous 5 Quarter Earnings:   0.15    1.05   -0.62   -0.06    0.35

          Current Annualized (Last Four Quarters) Earnings =  -0.33
                                                           ________
                                 Average PE / Current PE =    -1.80
                                                           --------

                                      ...a number above 1.00 is good
                                                1.00 or below is bad


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Channeling Potential

 
The summary below includes a value for `Degree,' which refers on a
scale of 1 to 10 the range of a channel in the period under consi-
deration compared to the total range of price movement. It also looks
for the last closing price to be within the channel, otherwise zeroed.
The `Index' is the `Degree' weighted for volatility.  Generally, the
the higher the index, the more suitable is the stock for trading as
a `rolling stock' between channel high and low points.

Results for ABERCROMBIE & FITCH CO.:
Symbol? ANF
Total Months Available:  26
       Months in Cycle?   4

Months Covered by Periods:  12

Period 1           Period 2          Period 3
   H1      L1        H2      L2        H3      L3
  29.20   19.81     29.69   17.51     22.67   15.28

RANGE   =  29.69  TO   15.28            Close =  20.69
CHANNEL =  22.67  TO   19.81           Degree =   2
Volatility =  13.82%                    Index =   2
Channel Chart



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MACD Histogram Divergence

The theory is that connecting the two most recent peaks or valleys of the MACD histogram will signal the direction of the next major move.



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Intraday Chart

2 Days:



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Val Idea

5 out of 8 favorable, (positive opinion.)

Val Idea
Val Idea


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Stock Consultant

Stock Consultant Stock Consultant


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Point & Figure Chart

P & F Chart


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Wall Street Analyzer



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Marketspace Chart

Marketspace Chart



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Time Series Forecast

Time Series 1 Time Series 2


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Neural Network Prediction

"Neurostock" can only track long trades. Therefore its performance, as tracked by itself on stocks which are consistently falling, may not appear as good as it could if each "sell" signal were a "short sale."

Neural Chart
Heading
Neural Trades Neural Prediction



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Ultimate Trading Systems

3 out of 3 of the ultimate systems favor a downmove.


System Below:
Short term outlook: Positive: Bright Green, Negative: Bright Red
Long term outlook: Postive: Dark Green, Negative: Dark Red.




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Recommendation

Decision Weighting Factors
FactorsWeighted Points
News + 1
Comparison - 1
Industry - 1
Bond Issue 0
Zenith Index + 1
Non-GAAP vs. GAAP Earnings + 1
Cash Flow + 1
Average to Current P/E - 1
Ratios + 1
Intrinsic Value DCF + 1
Fair Value Estimator + 1
Projected Earnings + 1
Research Reports + 1
Analysts + 1
Executive Perquisites - 1
Insider Activity - 1
Institutional Activity + 1
Management Reporting + 1
Short Interest + 1
Sentiment - 1
Standard & Poor's + 1
MACD Histogram Divergence - 1
Val Idea + 1
Stock Consultant + 1
Point & Figure + 1
Wall Street Analyzer - 1
Marketspace Chart + 1
Time Series Chart - 1
Neural Network - 1
Stock Options + 1
Ultimate Trading Systems - 1
Total + 8
Place 1,460 shares of Abercrombie & Fitch Company (ANF) on the Active List.