01-23-2019: Ameresco, Inc. (AMRC): Helping Save Energy Through Infrastructure

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Recommendation

Ameresco, Inc.

Ameresco Corporation (AMRC) is an engineering concern that has a surprising number and backlog of projects aimed at increasing energy efficiency of large organizations through infrastructure design and construction. It is active all over the U.S. in large and small communities with various projects from solar energy to street lighting, and in Canada and Britain as well. It is based in Massachusetts and seeks to attract top engineers and makes frequent acquisitions of smaller consulting companies.

News on Ameresco consists almost entirely of announcements of new contracts. The company grew out of the energy crisis of the 1970's. Annual earnings have been consistently positive but smaller than one might anticipate for a company this size. Latest earnings are vastly improved over the previous five years.

The corporation has an informative website on its various recent large projects and capabilities, but we did not like the absence of a glitzy annual report and CEO Letter to Shareholders. Its management's discussion of results of operations was informative and done well in our opinion.

The corporation has a growing debt load which was among other things giving it an unacceptably low Zenith Index. That would imply poor financial fundamentals and ratios, although several other researchers disagree with us. That did not include Standard & Poor's however which gave it a sell rating.

Analysts are generally favorable and the "gurus" (Val Idea) gave it a rare positive rating.

The stock chart has a very positive upward momentum of late as traders look to substantially improving earnings on the company, although we think it may be over-valued despite getting high intrinsic value ratings.

Institutions are definitely net acquirers and Dimensional Fund Advisors is prominent among them which we think is a very good sign.

Chart patterns and sentiment were very strong on this stock until a recent pullback and some weakness which penalized our Decision Matrix rating heavily on the stock price hitting heavy resistance. But it still appears to us to be overall a "buy" on a pullback. 



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Zenith Index

Under current market conditions, a Zenith Index Score of 1.20 or above is required for a positive rating on this factor. 1.21 -1.30 is considered acceptable, 1.30-1.40 is considered strong and
> 1.40 is considered exceptionally strong. Accounting statements in this section often contain mistakes, especially in earlier years' totals, but data is deemed sufficient for us to give a rating. More accurate financial statements follow in the next section.

Ameresco, Inc. (AMRC)                                     Exchange: NYSE
111 Speen Street
Suite 410                        Sector: Industrials
Framingham, MA 01701             Industry: Engineering & Construction

Ameresco, Inc. provides comprehensive energy services for businesses and
organizations in North America and Europe. It offers energy efficiency,
infrastructure upgrades, energy security and resilience, asset
sustainability, and renewable energy solutions. The company operates
through U.S. Regions, U.S. Federal, Canada, and Non-Solar Distributed
Generation segments. It designs, develops, engineers, and installs
projects that reduce the energy, as well as operations and maintenance
costs of customers' facilities. The company's projects primarily include
various measures customized for the facility and designed to enhance the
efficiency of building systems, such as heating, ventilation, cooling,
and lighting systems. It also offers renewable energy products and
services, such as the construction of small-scale plants for customers
that produce electricity, gas, heat, or cooling from renewable sources
of energy; and sells electricity and processed renewable gas fuel, heat,
or cooling. In addition, the company provides enterprise energy
management and consulting services; and sells solar photovoltaic (PV)
energy products and systems. It serves federal, state, and local
governments, as well as healthcare and educational institutions, housing
authorities, and commercial and industrial customers. As of December 31,
2017, the company owned and operated 73 small-scale renewable energy
plants and solar PV installations. Ameresco, Inc. was founded in 2000
and is headquartered in Framingham, Massachusetts.

Last Trade:  15.03                           52-Week Range:  16.59 -   7.75
Employees: 1,000                             Avg.Volume:     131,768 Shares

Corporate Governance:
Pllar scores are Audit: 2; Board: 6; Shareholder Rights: 10; Compensation: 6.
         (A lower number means less governance risk.)

EPS:  1.09    Dividend Amount: $ 0.00          Yield:  0.00%
             Ex-Dividend Date: N/A             Payout Ratio:   0.00

Key Statistics:

    Trailing P/E:  14.03              Forward P/E (est.):  19.51
                                           Target Price:  16.75

Qrtly Stock Price Growth (yoy):  65.16%               Beta:   0.00
Qrtly S&P Index   Growth (yoy):   0.30%        Short Ratio:   2.95%
    Qrtly Revenue Growth (yoy):  -6.95%         Shares Out:  27980000
   Qrtly Earnings Growth (yoy):  26.00%

          Book Value:   7.92                    Debt/Equity: 136.27%
    Price/Book Value:   1.92        Operating Profit Margin:   6.86%
         Price/Sales:   0.90                  Profit Margin:   6.43%
         Market Cap:     699,764,000       Return on Equity:  13.58%
    Enterprise Value:   1,170,000,000      Return on Assets:   3.32%

    Operating Cash Flow:    -78,170,000
         Free Cash Flow:     -7,130,000



Annual Income Statement:                          (All numbers in thousands)
  Period Ending                             12/31/2017  12/31/2016  12/31/2015

  Total Revenue                                717,152     651,227     630,832
  Cost of Revenue                              572,994     516,883     513,768
  Gross Profit                                 144,158     134,344     117,064

Operating Expenses:
  Research & Development                             0           0           0
  Selling, General & Administrative            103,776      99,148     100,144
  Non-Recurring Expenses                             0           0           0
  Other Operating Expenses                           0           0           0
  Total Operating Expenses                     680,564     621,251     617,175

Operating Income or Loss                        36,588      29,976      13,657

Income from Continuing Operations:
  Total Other Income/Expenses Net               -7,871     -13,609     -13,365
  Earnings Before Interest & Taxes              36,588      29,976      13,657
  Interest Expense                              -9,295      -7,454      -5,727
  Income Before Taxes                           28,717      16,367         292
  Income Tax Expense                            -4,791       4,370       4,976
  Minority Interest                             10,338       6,847         490

Net Income from Continuing Op.s                 33,508      11,997      -4,684

Non-recurring Events:
  Discontinued Operations                            0           0           0
  Extraordinary Items                                0           0           0
  Effect of Accounting Changes                       0           0           0
  Other Items                                        0           0           0
  Net Income                                    37,491      12,032         844
  Preferred Stock & Other Adjustments                0           0           0

Net Income Avail to Common Shares               37,491      12,032         844



Annual Cash Flow Statement:                   (All numbers in thousands)
  Period Ending                         12/31/2017    12/31/2016    12/31/2015

  Net Income                                33,508        11,997        -4,684

Operating Activities:
  Depreciation                              25,493        24,755        24,324
  Adjustments to Net Income                 -8,920         9,475         6,177
  Changes in Accounts Recv'bls             -43,581        23,043       -31,201
  Changes in Liabilities                    17,484        -9,772        36,947
  Changes in Investories                     3,966         1,118        -4,327
  Changes in other Oper'g Acts            -164,434      -122,215       -84,612

Total Cash Flow f Operations              -136,559       -58,073       -49,538

Investing Activities:
  Capital Exenditures                      -88,410       -76,041       -52,683
  Investments                                    0             0             0
  Other Cash Flows fr Investing                  0             0             0

Total Cash Flows from Investing            -88,042       -79,616       -51,829

Financing Activities:
  Dividends Paid                                 0             0             0
  Sale of Purchase of Stock                      0             0             0
  Net Borrowings                           223,083       134,896       102,132
  Other Cash Flows fr Financing              6,440         7,738             0

Total Cash Flows from Financing            228,088       137,301       100,705

  Effect of Exchange Rate Chg                  168          -650        -1,455

Change in Cash & Cash Equiv.                 3,655        -1,038        -2,117



Annual Balance Sheets:                              (All Numbers in Thousands)
  Period Ending                          12/31/2017    12/31/2016    12/31/2015
Current Assets:
  Cash & Cash Equivalents                    24,262        20,607        21,645
  Short Term Investments                          0             0             0
  Net Receivables                           213,510       160,139       185,311
  Inventory                                   8,139        12,104        13,223
  Other Current Assets                       27,130        21,479        31,774
  Total Current Assets                      273,041       214,329       251,953

  Long-Term Investments                         233             0             0
  Property, Plant & Equipt                  361,746       324,776       249,637
  Goodwill                                   56,135        57,976        59,085
  Intangible Assets                           2,440         3,931         6,770
  Accumulated Amortization                        0             0             0
  Other Assets                              276,319       184,537       144,250
  Deferred LT Asset Charges                       0             0             0

Total Assets                                983,951       797,281       723,440

Current Liabilities:
  Accounts Payable                          135,881       126,583       114,759
  Current Portion LT Debt                    18,075        17,107        13,427
  Other Current Liabilities                  20,964        22,053        29,554
  Total Current Liabilities                 202,142       190,602        179,723

  Long Term Debt                            381,141       264,977       227,211
  Other Liabilities                          22,997        28,087        28,607
  Deferred LT Liab. Charges                   2,355         1,524             0
  Minority Interest                          10,338         6,847           490
  Negative Goodwill                               0             0             0

Total Liabilities                           636,993       496,128       435,541

Stockholder Equity:
  Misc. Options, Warrants                         0             0             0
  Redeemable Preferred Stock                      0             0             0
  Preferred Stock                                 0             0             0
  Common Stock                                    5             5             5
  Retained Earnings                         235,844       194,353       182,321
  Treasury Stock                            -15,425       -12,978        -5,228
  Capital Surplus                           116,196       112,926       110,311
  Other Stockhohlder Equity                  -5,626        -6,591        -5,228
  Total Stockholder Equity                  336,620       294,306       287,409

Net Tangible Assets                         278,045       232,399       221,554


Ameresco, Inc. (AMRC)                       [Indices near +3.0, near zero,
                                            or < zero bear special attention.]
P/E Ratio Tests:
P/E Ratio < 28?            1.9957          P/E Ratio > 5?             1.0000
P/E Ratio Vs Growth Rate:  3.0000          Forward P/E Ratio < 28?    1.4352
Price/Sales Ratio < 2.3?   2.5556          Inventory/Sales < 5%?      3.0000
Sales < $1 Billion?        1.3944          Operating Margin < 7.5%?   1.0933

Balance Sheet Tests:
Debt/Equity < 0.40?        0.2935          Long-Term Debt Service:    0.9103
LTD Being Reduced?        -3.0000          Short-Term Debt Service:  -3.0000
Current Ratio > 2?         0.6754          Working Capital >= 1.5?    1.1253
Leverage Ratio < 20%?      0.1433          Debt/Assets < 1?           2.5816
Quick Ratio > 1?           3.0000          Inventory Turnover > 1?    0.0120
Share Equity Increase:     2.1678          Market Cap.< 1.5 Billion?  2.1436
                                           Intangibles < 3% Assets?   0.5039
Income Tests:
Profit Margin < 7.5%?      0.8573          EPS Annual Growth > 10%?   0.0321
Dividend Yield > 2.0%?     0.0000          EPS 3-yr Growth > 15?      0.0034
Enterprise Value/Revenue   0.9763          EPS Growth Consistent?     2.0000
Enterprise Value/EBITDA:   3.0000          Collection < 45 days?      0.4141
EPS Qrtly Growth > 10%?    0.0038          Gross Pft/Cur. LTD > 1?    3.0000
                                           Borrowing Int. Rate < 6%? -2.4603
Stock Performance Tests:
Volatility > 25%?          2.1314          % Held by Insiders < 5%?   0.1337
Beta > 1.25?               0.0000          % Held by Institut. < 50?  1.0783
50 Da MA > 200 Da MA?      0.1397          % Held by Institut. > 30?  1.5457
52-Wk Change vs. S&P 500: -3.0000          Short Ratio > 5?           0.5900
Price/Book Value < 3?      1.5808          Short % of Float > 20?     0.0820
Return on Assets > 17%?    0.1953          Average Volume > 100,000?  1.3177

Cash Flow Tests:
Oper. C.F. > Lever'd C.F:  3.0000          Positive Free Cash Flow?  -1.0000
Positive Oper. Cash Flow? -1.0000          Price to C.F.Ratio < 14?:  3.0000
                                           Cash Flow / Assets > 10%?  3.0000

AMRC   Ameresco, Inc.                      Overall Zenith Index:      0.9011


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Financial Statements

AMERESCO INC CLASS A  (AMRC)                INCOME STATEMENT

Fiscal year ends in December. USD in thousan         2013-12         2014-12         2015-12         2016-12         2017-12             TTM           

Revenue                                              574,171         593,241         630,832         651,227         717,152         780,900
Cost of revenue                                      470,847         476,309         513,768         516,883         572,994         615,030
Gross profit                                         103,325         116,932         117,064         134,344         144,158         165,870


Operating expenses
Sales, General and administrative                     96,693         103,781         110,007         110,568         107,570         112,277
Total operating expenses                              96,693         103,781         110,007         110,568         107,570         112,277

Operating income                                       6,632          13,151           7,057          23,776          36,588          53,593
Interest Expense                                       4,600           5,898           3,734           6,510           8,086               0
Other income (expense)                                   727            -961          -3,031            -899             215         -13,393
Income before taxes                                    2,759           6,292             292          16,367          28,717          40,200
Provision for income taxes                               345          -4,091           2,843           4,370          -4,791          -7,208
Net income from continuing operations                  2,414          10,383          -2,551          11,997          33,508          47,408
Other                                                      0               0           5,528              35           3,983           2,794
Net income                                             2,414          10,383           2,977          12,032          37,491          50,202
Net income available to common shareholders            2,414          10,383           2,977          12,032          37,491          50,202

Earnings per share
Basic                                                   0.05            0.22            0.06            0.26            0.82            1.10 
Diluted                                                 0.05            0.22            0.06            0.26            0.82            1.09 

Weighted average shares outstanding
Basic                                                 45,560          46,162          46,494          46,409          45,509          45,583
Diluted                                               46,419          46,718          47,665          46,493          45,748          46,382

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


AMERESCO INC CLASS A  (AMRC)                BALANCE SHEET

Fiscal year ends in December. USD in thousan         2013-12         2014-12         2015-12         2016-12         2017-12             

Assets

Current assets

Cash

Total cash                                            17,171          23,762          21,645          20,607          24,262

Receivables                                          107,027          87,629          94,826         102,819         102,605
Inventories                                           10,256           8,896          13,223          12,104           8,139
Deferred income taxes                                  4,843           5,440               0               0               0
Prepaid expenses                                      10,177           8,666          11,745          11,732          14,037
Other current assets                                 100,358          92,342         122,259          78,799         138,035
Total current assets                                 249,832         226,735         263,698         226,061         287,078

Non-current assets

Property, plant and equipment
Gross property, plant and equipment                  235,851         319,497          27,480          30,258          33,237
Accumulated Depreciation                             -16,408         -94,353         -22,152         -25,240         -27,934
Net property, plant and equipment                    219,443         225,144           5,328           5,018           5,303

Goodwill                                              53,074          60,479          59,085          57,976          56,135
Intangible assets                                     10,253          11,238           6,770           3,931           2,440
Other long-term assets                                72,057         106,063         393,862         504,295         632,995
Total non-current assets                             354,827         402,924         465,045         571,220         696,873

Total assets                                         604,660         629,659         728,743         797,281         983,951 

Liabilities and stockholders' equity

Liabilities

Current liabilities
Short-term debt                                       12,974          12,255          13,427          19,292          22,375
Accounts payable                                      88,733          87,787         114,759         126,583         135,881
Taxes payable                                            615             812             810             775             755
Accrued liabilities                                   11,947          26,944          21,983          22,763          23,260
Other current liabilities                             16,933          18,291          28,744          21,189          19,871
Total current liabilities                            131,201         146,089         179,723         190,602         202,142

Non-current liabilities
Long-term debt                                       103,222          90,037         105,793         140,593         173,237
Deferred taxes liabilities                            11,318           7,210           4,010           9,037             584
Deferred revenues                                          0               0           8,291           7,739           7,188
Minority interest                                          8              -1             490           6,847          10,338
Other long-term liabilities                           82,113         100,017         140,894         148,157         253,842
Total non-current liabilities                        196,661         197,263         259,478         312,373         445,189

Total liabilities                                    327,862         343,352         439,201         502,975         647,331 

Stockholders' equity

Common stock                                               5               5               5               5               5
Additional paid-in capital                           102,587         107,445         110,311         112,926         116,196
Retained earnings                                    171,094         181,477         184,454         194,353         235,844
Treasury stock                                             0               0               0          -6,387          -9,799
Accumulated other comprehensive income                 3,112          -2,620          -5,228          -6,591          -5,626
Total stockholders' equity                           276,797         286,307         289,542         294,306         336,620
Total liabilities and stockholders' equity           604,660         629,659         728,743         797,281         983,951

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


AMERESCO INC CLASS A  (AMRC)                Statement of CASH FLOW

Fiscal year ends in December. USD in thousan         2013-12         2014-12         2015-12         2016-12         2017-12             TTM           

Cash Flows From Operating Activities
Net income                                             2,414          10,383          -2,551          11,997          33,508          47,408
Depreciation & amortization                           20,475          22,829          24,324          24,755          25,493          28,701
Amortization of debt discount/premium and is           1,091           1,353           1,139           1,503           1,620               0
Deferred income taxes                                -15,261          -2,749           1,953           2,867          -4,527           1,526
Stock based compensation                               2,799           2,493           1,769           1,462           1,293           1,454
Change in working capital                            -64,199         -33,707         -82,022        -105,838        -192,243        -160,205
Accounts receivable                                     -500          11,900          -8,297          -8,127           3,149         -36,001
Inventory                                                -94           1,308          -4,327           1,118           3,966             473
Prepaid expenses                                         371           5,526          -3,369             -98          -2,471           5,041
Income taxes payable                                   7,025             661           1,171           1,988          -5,678         -10,073
Other working capital                                -71,001         -53,102         -67,200        -100,719        -191,209        -119,645
Other non-cash items                                  -7,928            -348           5,850           5,181          -1,703           2,948
Net cash provided by operating activities            -60,609             254         -49,538         -58,073        -136,559         -78,168

Cash Flows From Investing Activities
Investments in property, plant, and equipmen         -26,872         -28,424         -52,683         -76,041          -2,851          -3,890
Property, plant, and equipment reductions              3,510               0             854               0               0               0
Acquisitions, net                                     -9,838         -13,903               0          -3,575          -2,409         -62,687
Other investing activities                             3,262           3,727               0               0         -82,782         -60,882
Net cash used for investing activities               -29,937         -38,600         -51,829         -79,616         -88,042        -127,459

Cash Flows From Financing Activities
Debt issued                                            9,434           5,000          24,047          41,826         112,234         103,950
Debt repayment                                       -14,669         -18,392         -12,392         -14,014         -54,164         -37,661
Common stock repurchased                                   0               0               0          -6,387          -3,412          -2,155
Excess tax benefit from stock based compe              5,264             918             -50              99               0               0
Other financing activities                            43,161          55,250          89,100         115,777         173,430         170,427
Net cash provided by (used for) financing             43,190          42,776         100,705         137,301         228,088         234,561

Effect of exchange rate changes                        1,179           2,161          -1,455            -650             168            -278
Net change in cash                                   -46,177           6,591          -2,117          -1,038           3,655          28,656
Cash at beginning of period                           63,348          17,171          23,762          21,645          20,607          64,745
Cash at end of period                                 17,171          23,762          21,645          20,607          24,262          93,401

Free Cash Flow
Operating cash flow                                  -60,609             254         -49,538         -58,073        -136,559         -78,168
Capital expenditure                                  -26,872         -28,424         -52,683         -76,041          -2,851          -3,890
Free cash flow                                       -87,481         -28,170        -102,221        -134,114        -139,410         -82,058
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________





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Average to Current P/E Ratios
              (AMRC)     Ameresco Inc. Cl A

                               2014    2015    2016    2017    2018

          Annual Earnings:     0.05    0.22    0.02    0.26    0.82
Average Price During Year:     7.97    6.69    5.10    6.72   11.77

                P/E Ratio:   159.30   30.41  254.88   25.85   14.35

 Average 5-Year P/E Ratio  =  96.96
             Current Price =  14.41

Previous 5 Quarter Earnings:   0.19    0.52    0.15    0.19    0.23

          Current Annualized (Last Four Quarters) Earnings =   0.57
                                                           ________
                                 Average PE / Current PE =     3.84
                                                           --------

                                      ...a number above 1.00 is good
                                                1.00 or below is bad


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Financial Ratios

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Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Intrinsic Value by Discounted Cash Flow Method:

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Institutional Orders to Buy or Sell:

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Ownership:

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Sentiment

sentiment

Zenith uses the "sentiment" score above or below 50 to award a positive or negative point in the Decision Matrix.

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Short Interest Ratio

As the short interest rises as a percentage of average daily share volume (Days to Cover), this is considered a measure of negative sentiment. Similarly, a decrease in that percentage is considered positive sentiment.

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Management's Discussion of Results of Operations Excerpts

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Channeling Potential

 
The summary below includes a value for `Degree,' which refers on a
scale of 1 to 10 the range of a channel in the period under consi-
deration compared to the total range of price movement. It also looks
for the last closing price to be within the channel, otherwise zeroed.
The `Index' is the `Degree' weighted for volatility.  Generally, the
the higher the index, the more suitable is the stock for trading as
a `rolling stock' between channel high and low points.

Results for AMERESCO CORPORATION:
Symbol? AMRC
Total Months Available: 102
       Months in Cycle?   4

Months Covered by Periods:  12

Period 1           Period 2          Period 3
   H1      L1        H2      L2        H3      L3
  13.20    7.75     15.35   11.25     16.59   11.73

RANGE   =  16.59  TO    7.75            Close =  15.22
CHANNEL =  13.20  TO   11.73           Degree =   2
Volatility =   9.66%                    Index =   1
Channel Chart



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2 Days:



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Val Idea

6 out of 8 favorable, (positive opinion.)

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Neural Network Prediction

"Neurostock" can only track long trades. Therefore its performance, as tracked by itself on stocks which are consistently falling, may not appear as good as it could if each "sell" signal were a "short sale."

Neural Chart
Heading
Neural Trades Neural Prediction



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Ultimate Trading Systems

3 out of 3 of the ultimate systems favor a downmove.


System Below:
Short term outlook: Positive: Bright Green, Negative: Bright Red
Long term outlook: Postive: Dark Green, Negative: Dark Red.




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Recommendation

Decision Weighting Factors
FactorsWeighted Points
News + 1
Comparison - 1
Industry - 1
Bond Issue 0
Zenith Index - 1
Non-GAAP vs. GAAP Earnings - 1
Cash Flow + 1
Average to Current P/E - 1
Ratios + 1
Intrinsic Value DCF + 1
Fair Value Estimator + 1
Projected Earnings + 1
Research Reports + 1
Analysts + 1
Executive Perquisites + 1
Insider Activity - 1
Institutional Activity + 1
Management Reporting + 1
Short Interest - 1
Sentiment + 1
Standard & Poor's - 1
MACD Histogram Divergence + 1
Val Idea + 1
Stock Consultant + 1
Point & Figure - 1
Wall Street Analyzer + 1
Marketspace Chart - 1
Time Series Chart - 1
Neural Network - 1
Stock Options - 1
Ultimate Trading Systems - 1
Total + 2
Place 2,080 shares of Ameresco Corporation (AMRC) on the Active List.