03-22-2019: Domino's Pizza Inc. (DPZ): Growth at a Price

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Recommendation

Domino's Pizza Inc.

Domino's Pizza Inc. (DPZ) has as its mission to become the leading fast food supplier in the world. It has had such spectacular growth that a $3 stock in 2009 became a $300 stock in 2018 before retreating back to around $245/share. Imagine the dismay of a short selling trader who hung in expecting valuation to take hold upon growth, who could have seen his debt to the broker loaning the stock soar a hundred times, wiping out his account! We were once again attracted by "analysts'" statements from the likes of Goldman Sacks and Pierpont Morgan Chase that this stock was targeted to go soon back to anywhere between $270/share and $315. It is a $13 billion in annual retail sales company. It was founded in 1960 and has 16,000 internationally, many of them franchisees.

But the stock has an unacceptably low Zenith Index indicating fundamental problems, and a quick look identifies the problem as debt. The balance sheet is highlighted by negative shareholder equity. The company's debt load outweighs its assets, although it is comfortably able to pay interest expense out of operating profits. That leads to the conclusion of a very weak balance sheet.

The company has a good website aimed at investors with a CEO Letter to Shareholders and explanation of its strategy which includes "fortressing." Through the use of that strategy, the company is decimating its competition in various international locations. The idea is to build more and more stores closer in proximity to households. Part of this plan is the clear recognition in Domino's advertisements that deliveries are the key to recent success and expansion in the fast food industry, and many fast food places are shifting emphasis to home deliveries and carryout sales as opposed to "eating in." Proxmity to delivery points results in hotter, fresher food and faster service. The concern for shareholders is mirrored by a 1% dividend where most peer group companies fail to pay any dividend.

But the stock is looking "toppy". It is definitely a channeling stock in the bottom of a recent trading range, but could convert to a trending down stock. What kind of analysis "the analysts" did is suspect as researchers are biased to the negative side. The accounting practices for this corporation are considsered acceptable by GMI analysts, but the rush to expand has certainly resulted in a rapidly increasing debt and decreasing share book value and net assets on a very large scale downward.

Domino's leads competitors in experimenting with new ideas, one of the most recent being the use of self-driving delivery cars, in an experiment with the Ford Motor Company. The stock is a highflier but will it be a "high-flyer"? Remember "high-flyer" is something with outstanding abilities to achieve while "highflier" is a stock has outperformed the market. It now appears to be at a support level where it will either break out to the downside or bounce back, depending upon who one wants to listen. Our overall indicators support the former likelihood in contrast to "the analysts" to whom one should give little credence other than that so many traders listen to them, that they can make "self-fulfilling prophecies" in some instances, at least for a short while.



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Zenith Index

Under current market conditions, a Zenith Index Score of 1.20 or above is required for a positive rating on this factor. 1.21 -1.30 is considered acceptable, 1.30-1.40 is considered strong and
> 1.40 is considered exceptionally strong. Accounting statements in this section often contain mistakes, especially in earlier years' totals, but data is deemed sufficient for us to give a rating. More accurate financial statements follow in the next section.

Domino's Pizza, Inc. (DPZ)                                Exchange: NYSE
30 Frank Lloyd Wright Drive
Ann Arbor, MI 48105              Sector: Consumer Cyclical
United States                    Industry: Restaurants

Domino's Pizza, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a pizza
delivery company in the United States and internationally. It operates
in three segments: U.S. Stores, International Franchise, and Supply
Chain. The company offers pizzas under the Domino's brand name through
company-owned and franchised stores. As of December 30, 2018, it
operated through approximately 15,914 stores in 85 markets. The company
was founded in 1960 and is headquartered in Ann Arbor, Michigan.

Last Trade: 247.25                           52-Week Range: 305.34 - 225.25
Employees: 14,500                            Avg.Volume:     791,086 Shares

Corporate Governance:
Pillar scores are Audit: 2; Board: 5; Shareholder Rights: 5; Compensation: 6.
         (A lower number means less governance risk.)

EPS:  8.35    Dividend Amount: $ 2.60          Yield:  1.07%
             Ex-Dividend Date: Mar 13, 2019    Payout Ratio:  26.35

Key Statistics:

    Trailing P/E:  29.79              Forward P/E (est.):  22.68
                                           Target Price: 289.70

Qrtly Stock Price Growth (yoy):   6.76%               Beta:   0.00
Qrtly S&P Index   Growth (yoy):  21.40%        Short Ratio:   2.53%
    Qrtly Revenue Growth (yoy):   4.27%         Shares Out:  41060000
   Qrtly Earnings Growth (yoy):  19.60%

          Book Value: -74.18                    Debt/Equity:   0.00%
    Price/Book Value:   0.00        Operating Profit Margin:  16.67%
         Price/Sales:   2.98                  Profit Margin:  10.54%
         Market Cap:  10,216,000,000       Return on Equity:   0.00%
    Enterprise Value:  13,500,000,000      Return on Assets:  41.00%

    Operating Cash Flow:    394,170,000
         Free Cash Flow:    211,780,000



Annual Income Statement:                          (All numbers in thousands)
  Period Ending                             12/30/2018  12/31/2017  1/1/2017
 
  Total Revenue                              3,432,867   2,787,979   2,472,628
  Cost of Revenue                            2,488,714   1,921,988   1,704,937
  Gross Profit                                 944,153     865,991     767,691

Operating Expenses:
  Research & Development                             0           0           0
  Selling, General & Administrative            372,064     344,159     313,649
  Non-Recurring Expenses                             0           0           0
  Other Operating Expenses                           0           0           0
  Total Operating Expenses                   2,860,778   2,266,147   2,018,586

Operating Income or Loss                       572,089     521,832     454,042

Income from Continuing Operations:
  Total Other Income/Expenses Net             -143,411    -121,679    -109,484
  Earnings Before Interest & Taxes             572,089     521,832     454,042
  Interest Expense                            -146,345    -122,541    -110,069
  Income Before Taxes                          428,678     400,153     344,658
  Income Tax Expense                            66,706     122,248     129,980
  Minority Interest                                  0           0           0


Net Income from Continuing Op.s                361,972     277,905     214,678

Non-recurring Events:
  Discontinued Operations                            0           0           0
  Extraordinary Items                                0           0           0
  Effect of Accounting Changes                       0           0           0
  Other Items                                        0           0           0
  Net Income                                   361,972     277,905     214,678
  Preferred Stock & Other Adjustments                0           0           0

Net Income Avail to Common Shares              361,972     277,905     214,678



Annual Cash Flow Statement:                   (All numbers in thousands)
  Period Ending                         12/30/2018    12/31/2017    1/1/2017

  Net Income                               361,972       277,905       214,678

Operating Activities:
  Depreciation                              34,965        29,569        27,340
  Adjustments to Net Income                 -5,704        -3,779       -31,985
  Changes in Accounts Recv'bls             -18,172       -22,649       -18,724
  Changes in Liabilities                    10,010        22,267        78,929
  Changes in Investories                   -12,455         1,527        -2,947
  Changes in other Oper'g Acts              -3,178        10,645         7,951

Total Cash Flow f Operations               394,171       341,261       292,460

Investing Activities:
  Capital Exenditures                     -119,888       -90,011       -58,555
  Investments                                    0             0             0
  Other Cash Flows fr Investing             23,264          -562        -1,661

Total Cash Flows from Investing            -88,257       -83,738       -55,280

Financing Activities:
  Dividends Paid                           -92,166       -84,298       -73,925
  Sale of Purchase of Stock                      0             0             0
  Net Borrowings                           365,912       971,807       -59,334
  Other Cash Flows fr Financing             -8,207       -26,500        -1,661

Total Cash Flows from Financing           -322,803      -197,145      -375,792

  Effect of Exchange Rate Chg                    0             0             0

Change in Cash & Cash Equiv.                    66        -1,279         1,036



Annual Balance Sheets:                              (All Numbers in Thousands)
  Period Ending                          12/30/2018    12/31/2017    1/1/2017
 
Current Assets:
  Cash & Cash Equivalents                    25,438        35,768        42,815
  Short Term Investments                          0             0             0
  Net Receivables                           190,091       173,677       150,369
  Inventory                                  45,975        39,961        40,181
  Other Current Assets                      279,737       311,985       244,873
  Total Current Assets                      541,241       561,391       478,238

  Long-Term Investments                           0             0             0
  Property, Plant & Equipt                  234,939       169,586       138,534
  Goodwill                                   14,919        15,423        16,058
  Intangible Assets                          63,809        52,823        40,256
  Accumulated Amortization                        0             0             0
  Other Assets                               26,767        19,141        25,574
  Deferred LT Asset Charges                   5,526         2,750         8,935

Total Assets                                907,385       836,753       716,295

Current Liabilities:
  Accounts Payable                           92,546       106,894       111,510
  Current Portion LT Debt                    35,893        32,324        38,887
  Other Current Liabilities                 107,150       120,223       118,377
  Total Current Liabilities                 379,743       398,285        403,698

  Long Term Debt                          3,495,691     3,121,490     2,148,990
  Other Liabilities                          71,872        52,362        46,750
  Deferred LT Liab. Charges                       0             0             0
  Minority Interest                               0             0             0
  Negative Goodwill                               0             0             0

Total Liabilities                         3,947,306     3,572,137     2,599,438

Stockholder Equity:
  Misc. Options, Warrants                         0             0             0
  Redeemable Preferred Stock                      0             0             0
  Preferred Stock                                 0             0             0
  Common Stock                                  410           429           481
  Retained Earnings                      -3,036,471    -2,739,437    -1,881,520
  Treasury Stock                             -4,429        -2,030        -3,110
  Capital Surplus                               569         5,654         1,006
  Other Stockhohlder Equity                  -4,429        -2,030        -3,110
  Total Stockholder Equity               -3,039,921    -2,735,384    -1,883,143

Net Tangible Assets                      -3,118,649    -2,803,630    -1,939,457


Domino's Pizza, Inc. (DPZ)                  [Indices near +3.0, near zero,
                                            or < zero bear special attention.]
P/E Ratio Tests:
P/E Ratio < 28?            0.9399          P/E Ratio > 5?             1.0000
P/E Ratio Vs Growth Rate:  3.0000          Forward P/E Ratio < 28?    1.2346
Price/Sales Ratio < 2.3?   0.7718          Inventory/Sales < 5%?      3.0000
Sales < $1 Billion?        0.2913          Operating Margin < 7.5%?   0.4499

Balance Sheet Tests:
Debt/Equity < 0.40?        1.0000          Long-Term Debt Service:   -0.8696
LTD Being Reduced?        -3.0000          Short-Term Debt Service:  -3.0000
Current Ratio > 2?         0.7126          Working Capital >= 1.5?    1.0665
Leverage Ratio < 20%?      0.0310          Debt/Assets < 1?           0.2596
Quick Ratio > 1?           3.0000          Inventory Turnover > 1?    0.0161
Share Equity Increase:     2.5639          Market Cap.< 1.5 Billion?  0.1468
                                           Intangibles < 3% Assets?   0.3458
Income Tests:
Profit Margin < 7.5%?      1.4053          EPS Annual Growth > 10%?   0.0768
Dividend Yield > 2.0%?     1.8692          EPS 3-yr Growth > 15?      0.0890
Enterprise Value/Revenue   2.9769          EPS Growth Consistent?     2.0000
Enterprise Value/EBITDA:   3.0000          Collection < 45 days?      2.2265
EPS Qrtly Growth > 10%?    0.0051          Gross Pft/Cur. LTD > 1?    3.0000
                                           Borrowing Int. Rate < 6%? -1.4332
Stock Performance Tests:
Volatility > 25%?          1.0492          % Held by Insiders < 5%?   3.0000
Beta > 1.25?               0.0000          % Held by Institut. < 50?  0.5226
50 Da MA > 200 Da MA?     -0.0047          % Held by Institut. > 30?  3.0000
52-Wk Change vs. S&P 500:  1.5831          Short Ratio > 5?           0.5060
Price/Book Value < 3?     -0.9001          Short % of Float > 20?     0.3095
Return on Assets > 17%?    2.4118          Average Volume > 100,000?  3.0000

Cash Flow Tests:
Oper. C.F. > Lever'd C.F:  1.8612          Positive Free Cash Flow?   3.0000
Positive Oper. Cash Flow?  3.0000          Price to C.F.Ratio < 14?:  1.1035
                                           Cash Flow / Assets > 10%?  3.0000

DPZ    Domino's Pizza, Inc.                Overall Zenith Index:      1.1148


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Financial Statements

DOMINO'S PIZZA INC  (DPZ)                   INCOME STATEMENT

Fiscal year ends in December. USD in thousan         2014-12         2015-12         2016-12         2017-12         2018-12             TTM           

Revenue                                            1,993,833       2,216,528       2,472,628       2,787,979       3,432,867       3,432,867
Cost of revenue                                    1,399,067       1,533,397       1,704,937       1,921,988       2,130,188       2,130,188
Gross profit                                         594,766         683,131         767,691         865,991       1,302,679       1,302,679


Operating expenses
Sales, General and administrative                    249,405         277,692         313,649         344,759         730,990         730,990
Total operating expenses                             249,405         277,692         313,649         344,759         730,990         730,990

Operating income                                     345,361         405,439         454,042         521,232         571,689         571,689
Interest Expense                                      86,881          99,537         110,069         122,541         146,345         146,345
Other income (expense)                                   143             313             685           1,462           3,334           3,334
Income before taxes                                  258,623         306,215         344,658         400,153         428,678         428,678
Provision for income taxes                            96,036         113,426         129,980         122,248          66,706          66,706
Net income from continuing operations                162,587         192,789         214,678         277,905         361,972         361,972
Net income                                           162,587         192,789         214,678         277,905         361,972         361,972
Net income available to common shareholders          162,587         192,789         214,678         277,905         361,972         361,972

Earnings per share
Basic                                                   2.96            3.58            4.41            6.05            8.65            8.65 
Diluted                                                 2.86            3.47            4.30            5.83            8.35            8.35 

Weighted average shares outstanding
Basic                                                 54,918          53,829          48,647          45,955          41,856          41,856
Diluted                                               56,931          55,533          49,924          47,678          43,331          43,331

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


DOMINO'S PIZZA INC  (DPZ)                   BALANCE SHEET

Fiscal year ends in December. USD in thousan         2014-12         2015-12         2016-12         2017-12         2018-12             

Assets

Current assets

Cash

Total cash                                            30,855         133,449          42,815          35,768          25,438

Receivables                                          118,395         131,582         150,369         173,677         190,091
Inventories                                           37,944          36,861          40,181          39,961          45,975
Deferred income taxes                                  9,857               0               0               0               0
Prepaid expenses                                      30,573          20,646          17,635          18,389          25,710
Other current assets                                 200,737         280,099         244,873         311,985         279,737
Total current assets                                 428,361         602,637         495,873         579,780         566,951

Non-current assets

Property, plant and equipment
Gross property, plant and equipment                  310,220         336,173         359,498         406,865         487,121
Accumulated Depreciation                            -196,174        -204,283        -220,964        -237,279        -252,182
Net property, plant and equipment                    114,046         131,890         138,534         169,586         234,939

Equity and other investments                           4,586           6,054           7,260           8,119           8,718
Goodwill                                              16,297          16,097          16,058          15,423          14,919
Intangible assets                                     20,562          28,505          40,256          52,823          63,809
Deferred income taxes                                  2,475           5,865           8,935           2,750           5,526
Other long-term assets                                32,953           8,797           9,379           8,272          12,523
Total non-current assets                             190,919         197,208         220,422         256,973         340,434

Total assets                                         619,280         799,845         716,295         836,753         907,385 

Liabilities and stockholders' equity

Liabilities

Current liabilities
Short-term debt                                          565          59,333          38,887          32,324          35,893
Accounts payable                                      86,552         106,927         111,510         106,894          92,546
Accrued liabilities                                   49,725          59,411          76,093          80,673          80,982
Other current liabilities                            128,766         150,312         177,208         178,394         170,322
Total current liabilities                            265,608         375,983         403,698         398,285         379,743

Non-current liabilities
Long-term debt                                     1,523,546       2,181,460       2,148,990       3,121,490       3,495,691
Deferred taxes liabilities                             5,588               0               0               0               0
Accrued liabilities                                   17,052          19,339          19,609          21,751          40,807
Other long-term liabilities                           26,951          23,314          27,141          30,611          31,065
Total non-current liabilities                      1,573,137       2,224,113       2,195,740       3,173,852       3,567,563

Total liabilities                                  1,838,745       2,600,096       2,599,438       3,572,137       3,947,306 

Stockholders' equity

Common stock                                             556             498             481             429             410
Additional paid-in capital                            29,561           6,942           1,006           5,654             569
Retained earnings                                 -1,246,921      -1,804,143      -1,881,520      -2,739,437      -3,036,471
Accumulated other comprehensive income                -2,661          -3,548          -3,110          -2,030          -4,429
Total stockholders' equity                        -1,219,465      -1,800,251      -1,883,143      -2,735,384      -3,039,921
Total liabilities and stockholders' equity           619,280         799,845         716,295         836,753         907,385

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


DOMINO'S PIZZA INC  (DPZ)                   Statement of CASH FLOW

Fiscal year ends in December. USD in thousan         2014-12         2015-12         2016-12         2017-12         2018-12             TTM           

Cash Flows From Operating Activities
Net income                                           162,587         192,789         214,678         277,905         361,972         361,972
Depreciation & amortization                           35,788          32,434          38,140          44,369          53,665          53,665
Deferred income taxes                                   -132           1,713          -3,059           6,160            -872            -872
Stock based compensation                              17,587          17,623          18,564          20,713          22,792          22,792
Change in working capital                                 23          53,377          60,022           9,565         -23,795         -23,795
Accounts receivable                                  -12,710         -13,678         -18,724         -22,649         -18,172         -18,172
Inventory                                            -11,827          -2,262          -2,947           1,527         -12,455         -12,455
Other working capital                                 24,560          69,317          81,693          30,687           6,832           6,832
Other non-cash items                                 -23,514          -6,150         -41,072         -19,676         -19,591         -19,591
Net cash provided by operating activities            192,339         291,786         287,273         339,036         394,171         394,171

Cash Flows From Investing Activities
Investments in property, plant, and equipmen         -70,093         -63,282         -58,555         -90,011        -119,888        -119,888
Purchases of investments                                   0               0               0               0         -70,152         -70,152
Sales/Maturities of investments                            0               0               0               0          94,007          94,007
Other investing activities                            12,650         -46,010          57,719         -58,993           7,776           7,776
Net cash used for investing activities               -57,443        -109,292            -836        -149,004         -88,257         -88,257

Cash Flows From Financing Activities
Debt issued                                                0       1,305,000          63,000       1,900,000         970,000         970,000
Debt repayment                                       -12,332        -564,403        -122,334        -928,193        -604,088        -604,088
Common stock repurchased                             -82,407        -738,557        -300,250      -1,064,253        -591,212        -591,212
Excess tax benefit from stock based compe             27,583          17,775          48,129          27,227          23,786          23,786
Dividend paid                                        -52,843         -80,329         -73,925         -84,298         -92,166         -92,166
Other financing activities                             1,101         -20,422           9,588         -47,628         -29,123         -29,123
Net cash provided by (used for) financing           -118,898         -80,936        -375,792        -197,145        -322,803        -322,803

Effect of exchange rate changes                          474           1,036          -1,279              66            -538            -538
Net change in cash                                    16,472         102,594         -90,634          -7,047         -17,427         -17,427
Cash at beginning of period                           14,383          30,855         133,449          42,815         254,846         254,846
Cash at end of period                                 30,855         133,449          42,815          35,768         237,419         237,419

Free Cash Flow
Operating cash flow                                  192,339         291,786         287,273         339,036         394,171         394,171
Capital expenditure                                  -70,093         -63,282         -58,555         -90,011        -119,888        -119,888
Free cash flow                                       122,246         228,504         228,718         249,025         274,283         274,283
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________





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Average to Current P/E Ratios
              (DPZ)     Domino's Pizza Inc.

                               2014    2015    2016    2017    2018

          Annual Earnings:     2.86    3.47    4.30    5.83    8.35
Average Price During Year:    76.29  105.89  134.84  189.60  252.14

                P/E Ratio:    26.67   30.52   31.36   32.52   30.20

 Average 5-Year P/E Ratio  =  30.25
             Current Price =  243.94

Previous 5 Quarter Earnings:   2.09    2.00    1.78    1.95    2.62

          Current Annualized (Last Four Quarters) Earnings =   6.35
                                                           ________
                                 Average PE / Current PE =     0.79
                                                           --------

                                      ...a number above 1.00 is good
                                                1.00 or below is bad


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Intrinsic Value by Discounted Cash Flow Method:

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Insider Activity

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Institutional Orders to Buy or Sell:

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Sentiment

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Zenith uses the "sentiment" score above or below 50 to award a positive or negative point in the Decision Matrix.

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Short Interest Ratio

As the short interest rises as a percentage of average daily share volume (Days to Cover), this is considered a measure of negative sentiment. Similarly, a decrease in that percentage is considered positive sentiment.

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Management's Discussion of Results of Operations Excerpts

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Channeling Potential

 
The summary below includes a value for `Degree,' which refers on a
scale of 1 to 10 the range of a channel in the period under consi-
deration compared to the total range of price movement. It also looks
for the last closing price to be within the channel, otherwise zeroed.
The `Index' is the `Degree' weighted for volatility.  Generally, the
the higher the index, the more suitable is the stock for trading as
a `rolling stock' between channel high and low points.

Results for DOMINO'S PIZZA INC.:
Symbol? DPZ
Total Months Available:  25
       Months in Cycle?   4

Months Covered by Periods:  12

Period 1           Period 2          Period 3
   H1      L1        H2      L2        H3      L3
 293.81  225.25    305.34  253.01    297.16  231.28

RANGE   = 305.34  TO  225.25            Close = 248.76
CHANNEL = 293.81  TO  253.01           Degree =   5
Volatility =  16.40%                    Index =   8
Channel Chart



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MACD Histogram Divergence

The theory is that connecting the two most recent peaks or valleys of the MACD histogram will signal the direction of the next major move.



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Intraday Chart

2 Days:



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Val Idea

5 out of 8 favorable, (positive opinion.)

Val Idea
Val Idea


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Stock Consultant

Stock Consultant Stock Consultant


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Point & Figure Chart

P & F Chart


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Wall Street Analyzer



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Marketspace Chart

Marketspace Chart



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Time Series Forecast

Time Series 1 Time Series 2


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Neural Network Prediction

"Neurostock" can only track long trades. Therefore its performance, as tracked by itself on stocks which are consistently falling, may not appear as good as it could if each "sell" signal were a "short sale."

Neural Chart
Heading
Neural Trades Neural Prediction



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Ultimate Trading Systems

2 out of 3 of the ultimate systems favor an upmove.


System Below:
Short term outlook: Positive: Bright Green, Negative: Bright Red
Long term outlook: Postive: Dark Green, Negative: Dark Red.




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Recommendation

Decision Weighting Factors
FactorsWeighted Points
News + 1
Comparison - 1
Industry - 1
Bond Issue 0
Zenith Index - 1
Non-GAAP vs. GAAP Earnings - 1
Cash Flow - 1
Average to Current P/E - 1
Ratios - 1
Intrinsic Value DCF - 1
Fair Value Estimator - 1
Projected Earnings + 1
Research Reports + 1
Analysts + 1
Executive Perquisites - 1
Insider Activity - 1
Institutional Activity - 1
Management Reporting + 1
Short Interest + 1
Sentiment - 1
Standard & Poor's - 1
MACD Histogram Divergence - 1
Val Idea + 1
Stock Consultant + 1
Point & Figure + 1
Wall Street Analyzer - 1
Marketspace Chart - 1
Time Series Chart + 1
Neural Network + 1
Stock Options + 1
Ultimate Trading Systems + 1
Total - 4
Place 120 shares of Domino's Pizza Inc. (DPZ) on the Active List.