04-04-2019: Restoration Hardware (RH): Troublesomely Funky

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Recommendation

Restoration Hardware

"RH" (RH) is a funky stock that gave us a lot of trouble. Better known as "Restoration Hardware Holdings", it is a name or form of that name we and many other sites preferred to use. What brainless manager decided to make the name of the company identical to the NYSE ticker symbol through a lot of our software off that keys in on ticker symbols causing us to waste a lot of time reviewing this stock. The brainless CEO of "RH" is overpaid at $25 million annually it would seem to us, however, a recent huge increase in annual earnings places this stock in a rare state of having a p/e way below its historical p/e levels. That suggests it has been "overlooked".

Management put out some rather negative future earnings prospects based quite a bit upon trade relations with China falling apart. This company has been reducing its production operations in China. It is a manufacturer of "upscale" home furniture, not nuts and bolts and cabinet hardware was the name would suggest, and caters to the wealthy homeowner. One look at its equally-funky website convinced us that it was aimed at selling very modern furniture to people with large houses, but management projects a decline in affordability of large houses in an anticipated coming recession, and soaring real estate prices.

Sentiment on the stock is very negative. Actually, we could see no reason why based upon earnings projections, save for management's "guidance". There was actually significant recent insider buying reported on one site we follow but not the other.

The stock has an acceptable Zenith Index, but not so acceptable financial ratios, particularly as relates to very significant debt as an unusually large comparison to assets.

The company's website is aimed at selling furniture, not at shareholder concerns, although there is a CEO Letter to Shareholders there, an increasing rarity in American corporations. We did not waste much time attempting to wade through it.

The stock has a high unpredictability and large risk factor, with a couple of major gaps, both up and down, with the most recent gap down coming seemingly out of nowhere. This makes most chart patterns look very bad at the moment.

Analysts (who are they, anyway?) are positive, researchers are overwhelmingly negative on this stock, and institutions are heavy net sellers.

We suggest waiting for considerable upward momentum to develop before jumping into this stock on the long side. The stock has an unusually large non-generally accepted accounting principles earnings qualification of about 18% of earnings. This tends to suggest recent very strong earnings to be "one of a kind" when projecting into the future. Analysts' projections disagree, looking for continued strength. We don't think so, and apparently, neither does management.

On a positive note, we have seen some major corporations gap down for apparently no specific event reasons, only to adhere to the charting mantra,"gaps must be filled." Apparently Standard & Poor's is looking for something like that in their positive review. 



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Zenith Index

Under current market conditions, a Zenith Index Score of 1.20 or above is required for a positive rating on this factor. 1.21 -1.30 is considered acceptable, 1.30-1.40 is considered strong and
> 1.40 is considered exceptionally strong. Accounting statements in this section often contain mistakes, especially in earlier years' totals, but data is deemed sufficient for us to give a rating. More accurate financial statements follow in the next section.

Restoration Hardware                                      Exchange: NYSE
15 Koch Road
Suite K                          Sector: Consumer Cyclical
Corte Madera, CA 94925           Industry: Specialty

RH, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a retailer in the home
furnishings. It offers products in various categories, including
furniture, lighting, textiles, bathware, d+_cor, outdoor and garden,
tableware, and child and teen furnishings. The company provides its
products through its retail galleries; and Source Books, a series of
catalogs, as well as online through rh.com, restorationhardware.com,
rhbabyandchild.com, rhteen.com, and rhmodern.com, as well as
waterworks.com. As of February 2, 2019, it operated a total of 83 retail
galleries consisting of 20 design galleries, 43 legacy Galleries, 2 RH
Modern Galleries, and 6 RH Baby & Child Galleries throughout the United
States and Canada; and 15 Waterworks showrooms in the United States and
in the United kingdom, as well as operated 39 outlet stores throughout
the United States and Canada. The company was formerly known as
Restoration Hardware Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to RH in
January 2017. RH was founded in 1979 and is headquartered in Corte
Madera, California. The company was formerly known as Restoration
Hardware Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to RH in January 2017. RH
was founded in 1979 and is headquartered in Corte Madera, California.

Last Trade: 103.36                           52-Week Range: 164.49 -  84.19
Employees: 4,400                             Avg.Volume:   1,091,406 Shares

Corporate Governance:
Pillar scores are Audit: 2; Board: 7; Shareholder Rights: 8; Compensation: 10.
         (A lower number means less governance risk.)

EPS:  5.68    Dividend Amount: $ 0.00          Yield:  0.00%
             Ex-Dividend Date: N/A             Payout Ratio:   0.00

Key Statistics:

    Trailing P/E:  17.83              Forward P/E (est.):  10.00
                                           Target Price: 161.59

Qrtly Stock Price Growth (yoy):  18.60%               Beta:   0.00
Qrtly S&P Index   Growth (yoy):   0.10%        Short Ratio:  10.46%
    Qrtly Revenue Growth (yoy):   9.67%         Shares Out:  21220000
   Qrtly Earnings Growth (yoy):  13.00%

          Book Value:  -1.12                    Debt/Equity:   0.00%
    Price/Book Value:   0.00        Operating Profit Margin:  12.00%
         Price/Sales:   0.86                  Profit Margin:   6.01%
         Market Cap:   2,148,000,000       Return on Equity:   0.00%
    Enterprise Value:   3,290,000,000      Return on Assets:  10.62%

    Operating Cash Flow:    300,560,000
         Free Cash Flow:    153,270,000



Annual Income Statement:                          (All numbers in thousands)
  Period Ending                          02/2/2019     02/3/2018    01/28/2017

  Total Revenue                              2,505,653   2,440,174   2,134,871
  Cost of Revenue                            1,504,806   1,582,570   1,437,871
  Gross Profit                               1,000,847     857,604     697,000

Operating Expenses:
  Research & Development                             0           0           0
  Selling, General & Administrative            711,617     686,911     597,228
  Non-Recurring Expenses                             0           0           0
  Other Operating Expenses                           0           0           0
  Total Operating Expenses                   2,216,423   2,269,481   2,035,099

Operating Income or Loss                       289,230     170,693      99,772

Income from Continuing Operations:
  Total Other Income/Expenses Net             -108,077    -140,542     -91,218
  Earnings Before Interest & Taxes             289,230     170,693      99,772
  Interest Expense                             -75,074     -63,084     -47,471
  Income Before Taxes                          181,153      30,151       8,554
  Income Tax Expense                            30,514      27,971       3,153
  Minority Interest                                  0           0           0

Net Income from Continuing Op.s                150,639       2,180       5,401

Non-recurring Events:
  Discontinued Operations                            0           0           0
  Extraordinary Items                                0           0           0
  Effect of Accounting Changes                       0           0           0
  Other Items                                        0           0           0
  Net Income                                   150,639       2,180       5,401
  Preferred Stock & Other Adjustments                0           0           0

Net Income Avail to Common Shares              150,639       2,180       5,401



Annual Cash Flow Statement:                   (All numbers in thousands)
  Period Ending                          02/2/2019     02/3/2018    01/28/2017

  Net Income                               150,639         2,180         5,401

Operating Activities:
  Depreciation                              74,346        70,135        56,995
  Adjustments to Net Income                116,415       115,000        65,011
  Changes in Accounts Recv'bls                   0         2,758             0
  Changes in Liabilities                   -33,445        67,826       -26,330
  Changes in Investories                    -7,399       220,767        -4,304
  Changes in other Oper'g Acts                   0        45,979             0

Total Cash Flow f Operations               300,556       555,102        78,845

Investing Activities:
  Capital Exenditures                     -136,736      -126,842      -181,024
  Investments                                    0       175,801             0
  Other Cash Flows fr Investing                  0             0             0

Total Cash Flows from Investing           -136,736        64,043      -321,497

Financing Activities:
  Dividends Paid                                 0             0             0
  Sale of Purchase of Stock                      0             0             0
  Net Borrowings                            80,556       301,451       301,451
  Other Cash Flows fr Financing            -48,279        -8,675             0

Total Cash Flows from Financing           -183,201      -688,413        -2,241

  Effect of Exchange Rate Chg                 -130           152           449

Change in Cash & Cash Equiv.               -19,511       -69,116      -244,444



Annual Balance Sheets:                              (All Numbers in Thousands)
  Period Ending                          02/2/2019     02/3/2018    01/28/2017

Current Assets:
  Cash & Cash Equivalents                     5,803        17,907        87,023
  Short Term Investments                          0             0       142,677

  Net Receivables                                 0        31,412             0
  Inventory                                 531,947       527,026       752,304
  Other Current Assets                      144,943        53,823        79,434
  Total Current Assets                      682,693       630,168       918,761

  Long-Term Investments                           0             0        33,212
  Property, Plant & Equipt                  863,562       800,698       682,056
  Goodwill                                        0       141,893             0
  Intangible Assets                         210,401       100,702       100,757
  Accumulated Amortization                        0             0             0
  Other Assets                               49,378        44,643        64,635
  Deferred LT Asset Charges                       0        23,311             0

Total Assets                              1,806,034     1,732,866     2,192,520

Current Liabilities:
  Accounts Payable                          320,441       195,313       134,720
  Current Portion LT Debt                   343,789         6,033             0
  Other Current Liabilities                 253,942       194,066       189,189
  Total Current Liabilities                 918,172       519,335        416,169

  Long Term Debt                            577,808       905,075       567,734
  Other Liabilities                         104,088        78,960        78,491
  Deferred LT Liab. Charges                       0         4,446             0
  Minority Interest                               0             0             0
  Negative Goodwill                               0             0             0

Total Liabilities                         1,828,996     1,740,202     1,272,651

Stockholder Equity:
  Misc. Options, Warrants                         0             0             0
  Redeemable Preferred Stock                      0             0             0
  Preferred Stock                                 0             0             0
  Common Stock                              -22,962             2             4
  Retained Earnings                               0       152,394             0
  Treasury Stock                                  0    -1,020,020             0
  Capital Surplus                                 0       860,288             0
  Other Stockhohlder Equity                       0          -171             0
  Total Stockholder Equity                  -22,962        -7,336       919,869

Net Tangible Assets                        -233,363      -249,931       645,509


Restoration Hardware                        [Indices near +3.0, near zero,
                                            or < zero bear special attention.]
P/E Ratio Tests:
P/E Ratio < 28?            1.5704          P/E Ratio > 5?             1.0000
P/E Ratio Vs Growth Rate:  3.0000          Forward P/E Ratio < 28?    2.8000
Price/Sales Ratio < 2.3?   2.6744          Inventory/Sales < 5%?      0.2355
Sales < $1 Billion?        0.3991          Operating Margin < 7.5%?   0.6250

Balance Sheet Tests:
Debt/Equity < 0.40?        1.0000          Long-Term Debt Service:   -0.0397
LTD Being Reduced?         0.0000          Short-Term Debt Service:  -3.0000
Current Ratio > 2?         0.3718          Working Capital >= 1.5?    2.0443
Leverage Ratio < 20%?      0.2363          Debt/Assets < 1?           3.0000
Quick Ratio > 1?           3.0000          Inventory Turnover > 1?    0.2400
Share Equity Increase:     3.0000          Market Cap.< 1.5 Billion?  0.6983
                                           Intangibles < 3% Assets?   0.2575
Income Tests:
Profit Margin < 7.5%?      0.8013          EPS Annual Growth > 10%?   0.0014
Dividend Yield > 2.0%?     0.0000          EPS 3-yr Growth > 15?      0.0054
Enterprise Value/Revenue   0.8575          EPS Growth Consistent?     0.0000
Enterprise Value/EBITDA:   3.0000          Collection < 45 days?      1.0000
EPS Qrtly Growth > 10%?    0.0077          Gross Pft/Cur. LTD > 1?    2.9112
                                           Borrowing Int. Rate < 6%? -0.4618
Stock Performance Tests:
Volatility > 25%?          1.9527          % Held by Insiders < 5%?   0.3997
Beta > 1.25?               0.0000          % Held by Institut. < 50?  0.3965
50 Da MA > 200 Da MA?      0.3230          % Held by Institut. > 30?  3.0000
52-Wk Change vs. S&P 500:  1.9235          Short Ratio > 5?           2.0920
Price/Book Value < 3?     -0.0325          Short % of Float > 20?     3.0000
Return on Assets > 17%?    0.6247          Average Volume > 100,000?  3.0000

Cash Flow Tests:
Oper. C.F. > Lever'd C.F:  1.9610          Positive Free Cash Flow?   3.0000
Positive Oper. Cash Flow?  3.0000          Price to C.F.Ratio < 14?:  3.0000
                                           Cash Flow / Assets > 10%?  3.0000

RH     RH                                  Overall Zenith Index:      1.2934


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Financial Statements

RH  (RH)                                    INCOME STATEMENT

Fiscal year ends in January. USD in thousand         2015-01         2016-01         2017-01         2018-01         2019-01             TTM           

Revenue                                            1,867,422       2,109,006       2,134,871       2,440,174       2,505,653       2,505,653
Cost of revenue                                    1,176,648       1,356,314       1,455,084       1,591,107       1,504,806       1,504,806
Gross profit                                         690,774         752,692         679,787         849,067       1,000,847       1,000,847


Operating expenses
Sales, General and administrative                    525,048         567,131         626,751         717,766         711,617         711,617
Total operating expenses                             525,048         567,131         626,751         717,766         711,617         711,617

Operating income                                     165,726         185,561          53,036         131,301         289,230         289,230
Interest Expense                                      17,551          26,855          34,024          41,598          49,601          49,601
Other income (expense)                                     0          -8,822         -10,458         -59,552         -58,476         -58,476
Income before income taxes                           148,175         149,884           8,554          30,151         181,153         181,153
Provision for income taxes                            57,173          58,781           3,153          27,971          30,514          30,514
Net income from continuing operations                 91,002          91,103           5,401           2,180         150,639         150,639
Net income                                            91,002          91,103           5,401           2,180         150,639         150,639
Net income available to common shareholders           91,002          91,103           5,401           2,180         150,639         150,639

Earnings per share
Basic                                                   2.31            2.27            0.13            0.08            6.97            6.97 
Diluted                                                 2.20            2.16            0.13            0.07            5.68            5.68 

Weighted average shares outstanding
Basic                                                 39,457          40,190          40,691          27,054          21,614          21,614
Diluted                                               41,378          42,257          40,927          29,253          26,533          26,533

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


RH  (RH)                                    BALANCE SHEET

Fiscal year ends in January. USD in thousand         2015-01         2016-01         2017-01         2018-01         2019-01             

Assets

Current assets

Cash

Short-term investments                                62,168         130,801         142,677               0               0
Total cash                                           211,102         480,698         229,700          17,907           5,803

Receivables                                           25,965          28,567          47,315          31,412          95,086
Inventories                                          559,297         725,392         752,304         527,026         531,947
Deferred income taxes                                 27,904               0               0               0               0
Prepaid expenses                                      87,976          79,020         104,038          68,585          27,796
Other current assets                                       0               0           4,900               0          22,061
Total current assets                                 912,244       1,313,677       1,138,257         644,930         682,693

Non-current assets

Property, plant and equipment
Land                                                   5,396          11,188          11,396          11,382          11,518
Fixtures and equipment                               120,965         186,483         252,363         273,176         283,520
Other properties                                     407,889         493,356         652,400         799,279         887,960
Property and equipment, at cost                      534,250         691,027         916,159       1,083,837       1,182,998
Accumulated Depreciation                            -143,406        -175,422        -234,103        -283,139        -319,436
Property, plant and equipment, net                   390,844         515,605         682,056         800,698         863,562

Equity and other investments                          18,338          22,054          33,212               0               0
Goodwill                                             124,424         124,301         173,603         141,893         124,379
Intangible assets                                     48,554          48,536         100,757         100,702          86,022
Deferred income taxes                                  8,689          36,739          28,466          23,311          30,033
Other long-term assets                                22,906          27,560          36,169          21,332          19,345
Total non-current assets                             613,755         774,795       1,054,263       1,087,936       1,123,341

Total assets                                       1,525,999       2,088,472       2,192,520       1,732,866       1,806,034 

Liabilities and stockholders' equity

Liabilities

Current liabilities
Short-term debt                                            0               0               0           6,033         344,681
Capital leases                                           255             182               0               0               0
Accounts payable                                     133,063         175,024         134,720         195,313         183,039
Deferred income taxes                                    133               0               0               0               0
Taxes payable                                         22,749          47,107          15,527          24,916          18,354
Accrued liabilities                                   44,914          58,723          50,466          56,393          54,856
Deferred revenues                                     96,554         131,133         170,442         173,542         169,787
Other current liabilities                             46,761          40,386          45,014          63,138         147,455
Total current liabilities                            344,429         452,555         416,169         519,335         918,172

Non-current liabilities
Long-term debt                                       303,673         539,324         567,734         905,075         596,549
Capital leases                                         7,487           7,399           7,242           7,509           7,720
Other long-term liabilities                          167,494         203,034         281,506         308,283         306,555
Total non-current liabilities                        478,654         749,757         856,482       1,220,867         910,824

Total liabilities                                    823,083       1,202,312       1,272,651       1,740,202       1,828,996 

Stockholders' equity

Common stock                                               4               4               4               2               2
Additional paid-in capital                           668,989         763,566         790,866         860,288         356,422
Retained earnings                                     53,710         144,813         150,214         152,394        -376,810
Treasury stock                                       -19,285         -19,523         -19,523      -1,019,849            -243
Accumulated other comprehensive income                  -502          -2,700          -1,692            -171          -2,333
Total stockholders' equity                           702,916         886,160         919,869          -7,336         -22,962
Total liabilities and stockholders' equity         1,525,999       2,088,472       2,192,520       1,732,866       1,806,034

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


RH  (RH)                                    Statement of CASH FLOW

Fiscal year ends in January. USD in thousand         2015-01         2016-01         2017-01         2018-01         2019-01             TTM           

Cash Flows From Operating Activities
Depreciation & amortization                           34,463          44,595          56,995          70,135          74,346          74,346
Amortization of debt discount/premium and is               0           1,166           1,022              99               0               0
Investment/asset impairment charges                        0               0          23,972          42,708          38,100          38,100
Deferred income taxes                                  2,693          -6,011            -221           6,572             263             263
Stock based compensation                              17,072          24,223          29,214          50,709          23,983          23,983
Accounts receivable                                   -3,991          -2,629             588           2,758          -8,883          -8,883
Inventory                                           -106,036        -166,505          -4,304         220,767          -7,399          -7,399
Prepaid expenses                                      15,123           8,929         -36,889          45,537         -78,454         -78,454
Other working capital                                 39,275         132,871         -36,779          68,268          53,892          53,892
Other non-cash items                                  83,892         105,247          45,247          47,549         204,708         204,708
Net cash provided by operating activities             82,491         141,886          78,845         555,102         300,556         300,556

Cash Flows From Investing Activities
Investments in property, plant, and equipmen        -110,812         -13,999               0               0        -136,736        -136,736
Acquisitions, net                                          0               0        -116,100               0               0               0
Purchases of investments                             -91,604        -217,379        -248,485         -16,109               0               0
Sales/Maturities of investments                       11,118         143,830         224,434         191,910               0               0
Purchases of intangibles                                -453            -339            -322             -39               0               0
Other investing charges                               -8,797        -139,510        -181,024        -111,719               0               0
Net cash used for investing activities              -200,548        -227,397        -321,497          64,043        -136,736        -136,736

Cash Flows From Financing Activities
Long-term debt issued                              1,101,721         296,250               0         634,000       1,208,577       1,208,577
Long-term debt repayment                            -837,173            -248               0        -332,549      -1,128,396      -1,128,396
Excess tax benefit from stock based compe             16,421          10,443          -3,288               0               0               0
Repurchases of treasury stock                              0               0               0      -1,000,326        -250,000        -250,000
Other financing activities                           -27,169         -19,663           1,047          10,462         -13,382         -13,382
Net cash provided by (used for) financing            253,800         286,782          -2,241        -688,413        -183,201        -183,201

Effect of exchange rate changes                         -198            -308             449             152            -130            -130
Net change in cash                                   135,545         200,963        -244,444         -69,116         -19,511         -19,511
Cash at beginning of period                           13,389         148,934         331,467          87,023          25,314          25,314
Cash at end of period                                148,934         349,897          87,023          17,907           5,803           5,803

Free Cash Flow
Operating cash flow                                   82,491         141,886          78,845         555,102         300,556         300,556
Capital expenditure                                 -110,812        -133,799        -157,966        -112,494        -136,736        -136,736
Free cash flow                                       -28,321           8,087         -79,121         442,608         163,820         163,820
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________





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Average to Current P/E Ratios
              (RH)     RH

                               2014    2015    2016    2017    2018

          Annual Earnings:     2.20    2.16    0.13    0.07    5.68
Average Price During Year:    74.16   95.56   40.39   55.16  115.29

                P/E Ratio:    33.71   44.24  310.70  788.05   20.30

 Average 5-Year P/E Ratio  = 239.40
             Current Price =  101.25

Previous 5 Quarter Earnings:   0.01    1.11    2.33    0.81    1.41

          Current Annualized (Last Four Quarters) Earnings =   4.55
                                                           ________
                                 Average PE / Current PE =    10.76
                                                           --------

                                      ...a number above 1.00 is good
                                                1.00 or below is bad


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Financial Ratios

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Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Intrinsic Value by Discounted Cash Flow Method:

Intrinsic Value



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Fair Value Estimate:

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Insider Activity

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Institutional Activity

Institutional Orders to Buy or Sell:

institutions 1
Ownership:

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Sentiment

sentiment

Zenith uses the "sentiment" score above or below 50 to award a positive or negative point in the Decision Matrix.

sentiment sentiment sentiment



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Short Interest Ratio

As the short interest rises as a percentage of average daily share volume (Days to Cover), this is considered a measure of negative sentiment. Similarly, a decrease in that percentage is considered positive sentiment.

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Standard & Poor's

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Management's Discussion of Results of Operations Excerpts

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Channeling Potential

 
The summary below includes a value for `Degree,' which refers on a
scale of 1 to 10 the range of a channel in the period under consi-
deration compared to the total range of price movement. It also looks
for the last closing price to be within the channel, otherwise zeroed.
The `Index' is the `Degree' weighted for volatility.  Generally, the
the higher the index, the more suitable is the stock for trading as
a `rolling stock' between channel high and low points.

Results for RESTORATION HARDWARE:
Symbol? RH
Total Months Available:  77
       Months in Cycle?   4

Months Covered by Periods:  12

Period 1           Period 2          Period 3
   H1      L1        H2      L2        H3      L3
 164.49   84.19    162.10  103.72    157.71  102.19

RANGE   = 164.49  TO   84.19            Close = 103.36
CHANNEL = 157.71  TO  103.72           Degree =   7
Volatility =  52.23%                    Index =  36
Channel Chart



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MACD Histogram Divergence

The theory is that connecting the two most recent peaks or valleys of the MACD histogram will signal the direction of the next major move.



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Intraday Chart

2 Days:



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Val Idea

3 out of 8 favorable, (negative opinion.)

Val Idea
Val Idea


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Stock Consultant

Stock Consultant Stock Consultant


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Point & Figure Chart

P & F Chart


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Wall Street Analyzer



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Marketspace Chart

Marketspace Chart



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Time Series Forecast

Time Series 1 Time Series 2


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Neural Network Prediction

"Neurostock" can only track long trades. Therefore its performance, as tracked by itself on stocks which are consistently falling, may not appear as good as it could if each "sell" signal were a "short sale."

Neural Chart
Heading
Neural Trades Neural Prediction



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Ultimate Trading Systems

3 out of 3 of the ultimate systems favor a downmove.


System Below:
Short term outlook: Positive: Bright Green, Negative: Bright Red
Long term outlook: Postive: Dark Green, Negative: Dark Red.




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Recommendation

Decision Weighting Factors
FactorsWeighted Points
News - 1
Comparison + 1
Industry - 1
Bond Issue + 1
Zenith Index + 1
Non-GAAP vs. GAAP Earnings - 1
Cash Flow - 1
Average to Current P/E + 1
Ratios - 1
Intrinsic Value DCF - 1
Fair Value Estimator - 1
Projected Earnings + 1
Research Reports - 1
Analysts + 1
Executive Perquisites - 1
Insider Activity + 1
Institutional Activity - 1
Management Reporting + 1
Short Interest - 1
Sentiment - 1
Standard & Poor's + 1
MACD Histogram Divergence - 1
Val Idea - 1
Stock Consultant + 1
Point & Figure - 1
Wall Street Analyzer + 1
Marketspace Chart - 1
Time Series Chart - 1
Neural Network - 1
Stock Options + 1
Ultimate Trading Systems - 1
Total - 7
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