03-28-2019: Carter's Inc. (CRI): Infants' and Childrens' Wear

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Recommendation

Carter's Inc.

Carter's Inc. (CRI) is a $3.4 billion in annual revenue manufacturer of childrens' and infants' clothing. It has been around for a long time and is what we would call an "old-line company." Although stock chart and sentiment indicators look very strong for this company, it seems to have taken on a lot of debt and there are a lot of intangibles in its balance sheet, giving it an extremely unacceptably low Zenith Index. Other financial measure don't look quite so bad and the corporation has high intrinsic value (growth potential) by any measure. Management seems a bit over-compensated to us, especially with the stock option compensation held by the CEO, and the company has a history of insider trading scandals. Institutions are net sellers. Given all that, along with current market conditions, we are skeptical about where this stock share price is going next. But the stock does have a rare relationship of current to historical p/e ratios suggesting it may be to some extent overlooked.

As is often the case with corporations offering a lot of stock-based compensation, earnings growth is outpacing revenue growth in a trend that is not sustainable. We think the corporation has a very good website, good reporting, CEO Letter to shareholders all indicating shareholder concern. GMI analyst generally likes accounting method. We view management style as a mixture of the very good and not-so-good in regard to corporate governance. The stock pays a 2% dividend, another indicator of shareholder concern.

The apparel industry group in which the stock resides as a whole has been a weak performer of late. This stock is one of the strongest among them.

Researchers are completely neutral on this stock, balanced with buys versus holds or sell recommendations, depending upon wha is emphasized by the researcher.



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Zenith Index

Under current market conditions, a Zenith Index Score of 1.20 or above is required for a positive rating on this factor. 1.21 -1.30 is considered acceptable, 1.30-1.40 is considered strong and
> 1.40 is considered exceptionally strong. Accounting statements in this section often contain mistakes, especially in earlier years' totals, but data is deemed sufficient for us to give a rating. More accurate financial statements follow in the next section.

Carter's, Inc. (CRI)                                      Exchange: NYSE
Phipps Tower
Suite 1800 3438 Peachtree Road N Sector: Consumer Cyclical
Atlanta, GA 30326                Industry: Apparel

Carter's, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, sources, and
markets branded childrenswear under the Carter's, Child of Mine, Just
One You, Precious Firsts, Precious Baby, Simple Joys, OshKosh B'gosh,
Skip Hop, and other brands. The company operates through three segments:
U.S. Retail, U.S. Wholesale, and International. Its Carter's products
include baby products, such as bodysuits, pants, dresses, knit sets,
blankets, layette essentials, bibs, booties, sleep and play products,
rompers, and jumpers; play clothes comprising knit and woven cotton
apparel; sleepwear products consisting of pajamas in cotton, fleece, and
ploy-jersey; and other products, including bedding and swimwear
products, cribs, diaper bags, footwear, gift sets, hair accessories,
jewelry and outerwear goods, paper goods, socks, and toys. The company's
OshKosh brand products comprise playclothes that include denim apparel,
overalls, woven bottoms, knit tops, and bodysuits for sizes newborn to
14. It also offers baby, sleepwear, outerwear, footwear, hosiery, and
accessories under the OshKosh brand. In addition, the company provides
products for playtime, travel, mealtime, bathtime, and homegear, as well
as kid's bags and diaper bags under the Skip Hop brand. As of December
29, 2018, it operated 844 stores in the United States, 188 stores in
Canada, and 42 stores in Mexico, as well as approximately 17,000
wholesale stores, including department stores, national chain stores,
specialty stores, and discount retailers in the United States. The
company also sells its products through e-commerce sites in the United
States, Canada, and China, as well as other international wholesale
accounts and licensees. The company was founded in 1865 and is
headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.


Last Trade:  95.85                           52-Week Range: 118.22 -  75.66
Employees: 21,000                            Avg.Volume:     760,760 Shares

Corporate Governance:
Pllar scores are Audit: 1; Board: 2; Shareholder Rights: 1; Compensation: 3.
         (A lower number means less governance risk.)

EPS:  6.00    Dividend Amount: $ 2.00          Yield:  2.09%
             Ex-Dividend Date: Mar 10, 2019    Payout Ratio:  30.00

Key Statistics:

    Trailing P/E:  16.40              Forward P/E (est.):  13.67
                                           Target Price: 110.13

Qrtly Stock Price Growth (yoy):  -9.39%               Beta:   0.00
Qrtly S&P Index   Growth (yoy):   5.70%        Short Ratio:   3.76%
    Qrtly Revenue Growth (yoy):   5.26%         Shares Out:  45330000
   Qrtly Earnings Growth (yoy):  -4.10%

          Book Value:  19.05                    Debt/Equity:  68.24%
    Price/Book Value:   5.17        Operating Profit Margin:  11.31%
         Price/Sales:   1.29                  Profit Margin:   8.15%
         Market Cap:   4,462,000,000       Return on Equity:  32.67%
    Enterprise Value:   4,790,000,000      Return on Assets:  11.85%

    Operating Cash Flow:    356,200,000
         Free Cash Flow:    230,840,000



Annual Income Statement:                          (All numbers in thousands)
  Period Ending                             12/29/2018  12/30/2017  12/31/2016

  Total Revenue                              3,462,269   3,400,504   3,198,543
  Cost of Revenue                            1,964,786   1,917,150   1,820,024
  Gross Profit                               1,497,483   1,483,354   1,378,519

Operating Expenses:
  Research & Development                             0           0           0
  Selling, General & Administrative          1,132,180   1,110,528     995,406
  Non-Recurring Expenses                             0           0           0
  Other Operating Expenses                     -38,930     -43,181     -42,815
  Total Operating Expenses                   3,058,036   2,984,497   2,772,615

Operating Income or Loss                       404,233     416,007     425,928

Income from Continuing Operations:
  Total Other Income/Expenses Net              -48,258     -24,935     -32,841
  Earnings Before Interest & Taxes             404,233     416,007     425,928
  Interest Expense                             -34,569     -30,044     -27,044
  Income Before Taxes                          355,975     391,072     395,440
  Income Tax Expense                            73,907      88,224     137,731
  Minority Interest                                  0           0           0

Net Income from Continuing Op.s                282,068     302,848     257,709

Non-recurring Events:
  Discontinued Operations                            0           0           0
  Extraordinary Items                                0           0           0
  Effect of Accounting Changes                       0           0           0
  Other Items                                        0           0           0
  Net Income                                   282,068     302,848     257,709
  Preferred Stock & Other Adjustments                0           0           0

Net Income Avail to Common Shares              279,920     300,441     255,663



Annual Cash Flow Statement:                   (All numbers in thousands)
  Period Ending                         12/29/2018    12/30/2017    12/31/2016

  Net Income                               282,068       302,848       257,709

Operating Activities:
  Depreciation                              89,653        84,412        73,441
  Adjustments to Net Income                 30,722       -35,376        14,870
  Changes in Accounts Recv'bls             -34,448       -22,709         4,479
  Changes in Liabilities                     4,982        41,587        33,610
  Changes in Investories                   -30,646       -20,922       -17,482
  Changes in other Oper'g Acts              12,121       -21,791         1,141

Total Cash Flow f Operations               356,198       329,621       369,229

Investing Activities:
  Capital Exenditures                      -63,783       -69,473       -88,556
  Investments                                    0             0             0
  Other Cash Flows fr Investing                  0             0             0

Total Cash Flows from Investing            -63,307      -227,915       -88,340

Financing Activities:
  Dividends Paid                           -83,717       -70,914       -66,355
  Sale of Purchase of Stock                      0             0             0
  Net Borrowings                           -25,000        36,035        36,035
  Other Cash Flows fr Financing               -968        -2,119             0

Total Cash Flows from Financing           -298,946      -223,075      -363,507

  Effect of Exchange Rate Chg                    0             0             0

Change in Cash & Cash Equiv.                   505           767        -1,986



Annual Balance Sheets:                              (All Numbers in Thousands)
  Period Ending                          12/29/2018    12/30/2017    12/31/2016
Current Assets:
  Cash & Cash Equivalents                   170,077       178,494       299,358
  Short Term Investments                          0             0             0
  Net Receivables                           258,259       240,561       202,471
  Inventory                                 574,226       548,722       487,591
  Other Current Assets                            0 %-3,548,636,160
0
  Total Current Assets                    1,002,562 %-3,547,668,480       989,42
0

  Long-Term Investments                      15,700        16,700        12,300
  Property, Plant & Equipt                  350,437       377,924       385,874
  Goodwill                                  227,101       230,424       176,009
  Intangible Assets                         410,203       413,547       308,928
  Accumulated Amortization                        0             0             0
  Other Assets                               12,459        11,735         6,400
  Deferred LT Asset Charges                   2,083         1,941             0

Total Assets                              2,058,858     2,071,042     1,946,597

Current Liabilities:
  Accounts Payable                          199,076       182,114       158,432
  Current Portion LT Debt                         0             0             0
  Other Current Liabilities                  84,395        81,620        69,546
  Total Current Liabilities                 327,421       331,248        277,609

  Long Term Debt                            593,264       617,306       580,376
  Other Liabilities                         268,740       265,072       300,488
  Deferred LT Liab. Charges                       0             0             0
  Minority Interest                               0             0             0
  Negative Goodwill                               0             0             0

Total Liabilities                         1,189,425     1,213,626     1,158,473

Stockholder Equity:
  Misc. Options, Warrants                         0             0             0
  Redeemable Preferred Stock                      0             0             0
  Preferred Stock                                 0             0             0
  Common Stock                                  456           472           489
  Retained Earnings                         909,816       886,037       822,375
  Treasury Stock                            -40,839       -29,093       -34,740
  Capital Surplus                                 0             0             0
  Other Stockhohlder Equity                 -40,839       -29,093       -34,740
  Total Stockholder Equity                  869,433       857,416       788,124

Net Tangible Assets                         232,129       213,445       303,187


Carter's, Inc. (CRI)                        [Indices near +3.0, near zero,
                                            or < zero bear special attention.]
P/E Ratio Tests:
P/E Ratio < 28?            1.7073          P/E Ratio > 5?             1.0000
P/E Ratio Vs Growth Rate: -3.0000          Forward P/E Ratio < 28?    2.0483
Price/Sales Ratio < 2.3?   1.7829          Inventory/Sales < 5%?      0.3015
Sales < $1 Billion?        0.2888          Operating Margin < 7.5%?   0.6631

Balance Sheet Tests:
Debt/Equity < 0.40?        0.5862          Long-Term Debt Service:    1.4655
LTD Being Reduced?         0.0000          Short-Term Debt Service:  -3.0000
Current Ratio > 2?         1.5310          Working Capital >= 1.5?    0.4964
Leverage Ratio < 20%?      0.3380          Debt/Assets < 1?           3.0000
Quick Ratio > 1?           3.0000          Inventory Turnover > 1?    0.1878
Share Equity Increase:     2.1019          Market Cap.< 1.5 Billion?  0.3362
                                           Intangibles < 3% Assets?   0.0969
Income Tests:
Profit Margin < 7.5%?      1.0866          EPS Annual Growth > 10%?   0.1073
Dividend Yield > 2.0%?     0.9569          EPS 3-yr Growth > 15?      0.1370
Enterprise Value/Revenue   1.2889          EPS Growth Consistent?     0.0000
Enterprise Value/EBITDA:   3.0000          Collection < 45 days?      1.6528
EPS Qrtly Growth > 10%?   -0.0244          Gross Pft/Cur. LTD > 1?    3.0000
                                           Borrowing Int. Rate < 6%? -1.0297
Stock Performance Tests:
Volatility > 25%?          1.4400          % Held by Insiders < 5%?   2.7473
Beta > 1.25?               0.0000          % Held by Institut. < 50?  0.4802
50 Da MA > 200 Da MA?      0.0676          % Held by Institut. > 30?  3.0000
52-Wk Change vs. S&P 500: -1.7852          Short Ratio > 5?           0.7520
Price/Book Value < 3?      0.5962          Short % of Float > 20?     0.3670
Return on Assets > 17%?    0.6971          Average Volume > 100,000?  3.0000

Cash Flow Tests:
Oper. C.F. > Lever'd C.F:  1.5431          Positive Free Cash Flow?   3.0000
Positive Oper. Cash Flow?  3.0000          Price to C.F.Ratio < 14?:  2.2542
                                           Cash Flow / Assets > 10%?  3.0000

CRI    Carter's, Inc.                      Overall Zenith Index:      1.0060


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Financial Statements

CARTER'S INC  (CRI)                         INCOME STATEMENT

Fiscal year ends in December. USD in thousan         2014-12         2015-12         2016-12         2017-12         2018-12             TTM           

Revenue                                            2,893,868       3,013,879       3,199,184       3,400,410       3,462,269       3,462,269
Cost of revenue                                    1,709,428       1,755,855       1,820,035       1,917,096       1,964,786       1,964,786
Gross profit                                       1,184,440       1,258,024       1,379,149       1,483,314       1,497,483       1,497,483


Operating expenses
Sales, General and administrative                    890,251         909,233         995,406       1,106,927       1,144,980       1,144,980
Other operating expenses                             -39,156         -44,066         -42,815         -43,181         -38,930         -38,930
Total operating expenses                             851,095         865,167         952,591       1,063,746       1,106,050       1,106,050

Operating income                                     333,345         392,857         426,558         419,568         391,433         391,433
Interest Expense                                      27,653          27,031          27,044          30,044          34,569          34,569
Other income (expense)                                -2,786           2,362          -3,444           1,508            -889            -889
Income before taxes                                  302,906         368,188         396,070         391,032         355,975         355,975
Provision for income taxes                           108,236         130,366         137,964          88,268          73,907          73,907
Net income from continuing operations                194,670         237,822         258,106         302,764         282,068         282,068
Net income                                           194,670         237,822         258,106         302,764         282,068         282,068
Preferred dividend                                     2,586           2,184           2,049           2,406           2,148           2,148
Net income available to common shareholders          192,084         235,638         256,057         300,358         279,920         279,920

Earnings per share
Basic                                                   3.65            4.55            5.13            6.31            6.06            6.06 
Diluted                                                 3.62            4.50            5.08            6.24            6.00            6.00 

Weighted average shares outstanding
Basic                                                 52,614          51,835          49,918          47,593          46,161          46,161
Diluted                                               53,094          52,335          50,376          48,146          46,648          46,648

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


CARTER'S INC  (CRI)                         BALANCE SHEET

Fiscal year ends in December. USD in thousan         2014-12         2015-12         2016-12         2017-12         2018-12             

Assets

Current assets

Cash

Total cash                                           340,638         381,209         299,358         178,494         170,077

Receivables                                          173,962         185,046         182,194         229,968         244,258
Inventories                                          444,844         469,934         487,591         548,722         574,226
Deferred income taxes                                 36,625          34,080          35,486               0               0
Prepaid expenses                                      34,788          38,672          32,180          49,892          40,396
Other current assets                                  10,601          22,524          20,277          10,593          14,001
Total current assets                               1,041,458       1,131,465       1,057,086       1,017,669       1,042,958

Non-current assets

Property, plant and equipment
Net property, plant and equipment                    333,097         371,704         385,874         377,924         350,437

Goodwill                                             181,975         174,874         176,009         230,424         227,101
Intangible assets                                    317,297         310,848         308,928         413,547         410,203
Other long-term assets                                19,269          20,222          18,700          28,435          28,159
Total non-current assets                             851,638         877,648         889,511       1,050,330       1,015,900

Total assets                                       1,893,096       2,009,113       1,946,597       2,067,999       2,058,858 

Liabilities and stockholders' equity

Liabilities

Current liabilities
Accounts payable                                     150,243         157,648         158,432         182,114         199,076
Taxes payable                                          6,010               0               0               0               0
Accrued liabilities                                   22,617               0               0               0               0
Other current liabilities                             69,101         105,070         119,177         146,510         128,345
Total current liabilities                            247,971         262,718         277,609         328,624         327,421

Non-current liabilities
Long-term debt                                       586,000         584,431         580,376         617,306         593,264
Deferred taxes liabilities                           121,536         128,838         130,656          84,848          87,347
Accrued liabilities                                   40,656               0               0               0               0
Pensions and other benefits                           15,762               0               0               0               0
Other long-term liabilities                           94,487         158,075         169,832         180,128         181,393
Total non-current liabilities                        858,441         871,344         880,864         882,282         862,004

Total liabilities                                  1,106,412       1,134,062       1,158,473       1,210,906       1,189,425 

Stockholders' equity

Common stock                                             527             518             489             472             456
Retained earnings                                    809,194         910,900         822,375         885,714         909,816
Accumulated other comprehensive income               -23,037         -36,367         -34,740         -29,093         -40,839
Total stockholders' equity                           786,684         875,051         788,124         857,093         869,433
Total liabilities and stockholders' equity         1,893,096       2,009,113       1,946,597       2,067,999       2,058,858

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


CARTER'S INC  (CRI)                         Statement of CASH FLOW

Fiscal year ends in December. USD in thousan         2014-12         2015-12         2016-12         2017-12         2018-12             TTM           

Cash Flows From Operating Activities
Net income                                           194,670         237,822         258,106         302,764         282,068         282,068
Depreciation & amortization                           74,924          68,399          73,441          84,412          89,653          89,653
Deferred income taxes                                  3,911           8,657           1,294         -54,892          -1,018          -1,018
Stock based compensation                              17,598          17,029          16,847          17,549          14,673          14,673
Change in working capital                            -10,422         -18,367          21,680         -19,132         -47,991         -47,991
Accounts receivable                                    8,405         -23,837           5,041         -18,046         -34,448         -34,448
Inventory                                            -32,151         -34,352         -17,482         -20,922         -30,646         -30,646
Prepaid expenses                                      -2,719          -3,496           2,060         -21,339          12,121          12,121
Accounts payable                                      16,043          43,318          32,061          41,175           4,982           4,982
Other non-cash items                                   1,716          -5,553          -2,139          -1,080          18,813          18,813
Net cash provided by operating activities            282,397         307,987         369,229         329,621         356,198         356,198

Cash Flows From Investing Activities
Investments in property, plant, and equipmen        -107,003        -103,497         -88,556         -69,473         -63,783         -63,783
Property, plant, and equipment reductions              2,271              72             216              15             380             380
Acquisitions, net                                          0               0               0        -158,457              96              96
Purchases of intangibles                              -3,550               0               0               0               0               0
Other investing activities                             3,550               0               0               0               0               0
Net cash used for investing activities              -104,732        -103,425         -88,340        -227,915         -63,307         -63,307

Cash Flows From Financing Activities
Debt issued                                                0         205,586               0         200,000         290,000         290,000
Debt repayment                                             0        -205,237               0        -163,965        -315,000        -315,000
Common stock repurchased                             -82,099        -110,290        -300,445        -188,762        -193,028        -193,028
Excess tax benefit from stock based compe              4,700           8,839           4,800               0               0               0
Dividend paid                                        -40,477         -46,028         -66,355         -70,914         -83,717         -83,717
Other financing activities                            -4,562         -14,875          -1,507             566           2,799           2,799
Net cash provided by (used for) financing           -122,438        -162,005        -363,507        -223,075        -298,946        -298,946

Effect of exchange rate changes                       -1,135          -1,986             767             505          -2,362          -2,362
Net change in cash                                    54,092          40,571         -81,851        -120,864          -8,417          -8,417
Cash at beginning of period                          286,546         340,638         381,209         299,358         178,494         178,494
Cash at end of period                                340,638         381,209         299,358         178,494         170,077         170,077

Free Cash Flow
Operating cash flow                                  282,397         307,987         369,229         329,621         356,198         356,198
Capital expenditure                                 -107,003        -103,497         -88,556         -69,473         -63,783         -63,783
Free cash flow                                       175,394         204,490         280,673         260,148         292,415         292,415
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________





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Average to Current P/E Ratios
              (CRI)     Carter's Inc.

                               2014    2015    2016    2017    2018

          Annual Earnings:     3.62    4.50    5.08    6.24    6.00
Average Price During Year:    75.30   94.60   99.18   89.59  107.93

                P/E Ratio:    20.80   21.02   19.52   14.36   17.99

 Average 5-Year P/E Ratio  =  18.74
             Current Price =  95.65

Previous 5 Quarter Earnings:   2.84    0.89    0.79    1.53    2.83

          Current Annualized (Last Four Quarters) Earnings =   5.15
                                                           ________
                                 Average PE / Current PE =     1.01
                                                           --------

                                      ...a number above 1.00 is good
                                                1.00 or below is bad


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Sentiment

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Channeling Potential

 
The summary below includes a value for `Degree,' which refers on a
scale of 1 to 10 the range of a channel in the period under consi-
deration compared to the total range of price movement. It also looks
for the last closing price to be within the channel, otherwise zeroed.
The `Index' is the `Degree' weighted for volatility.  Generally, the
the higher the index, the more suitable is the stock for trading as
a `rolling stock' between channel high and low points.

Results for CARTER'S INC.:
Symbol? CRI
Total Months Available:  25
       Months in Cycle?   4

Months Covered by Periods:  12

Period 1           Period 2          Period 3
   H1      L1        H2      L2        H3      L3
 118.22   98.68    117.47   86.18    103.42   75.66

RANGE   = 118.22  TO   75.66            Close =  95.65
CHANNEL = 103.42  TO   98.68           Degree =   1
Volatility =   4.96%                    Index =   0
Channel Chart



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Intraday Chart

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Val Idea

5 out of 8 favorable, (positive opinion.)

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Stock Consultant

Stock Consultant Stock Consultant


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Point & Figure Chart

P & F Chart


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Wall Street Analyzer



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Marketspace Chart

Marketspace Chart



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Time Series Forecast

Time Series 1 Time Series 2


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Neural Network Prediction

"Neurostock" can only track long trades. Therefore its performance, as tracked by itself on stocks which are consistently falling, may not appear as good as it could if each "sell" signal were a "short sale."

Neural Chart
Heading
Neural Trades Neural Prediction



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Ultimate Trading Systems

3 out of 3 of the ultimate systems favor an upmove.


System Below:
Short term outlook: Positive: Bright Green, Negative: Bright Red
Long term outlook: Postive: Dark Green, Negative: Dark Red.




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Recommendation

Decision Weighting Factors
FactorsWeighted Points
News + 1
Comparison - 1
Industry - 1
Bond Issue + 1
Zenith Index - 1
Non-GAAP vs. GAAP Earnings - 1
Cash Flow - 1
Average to Current P/E + 1
Ratios + 1
Intrinsic Value DCF + 1
Fair Value Estimator + 1
Projected Earnings + 1
Research Reports 0
Analysts + 1
Executive Perquisites - 1
Insider Activity - 1
Institutional Activity - 1
Management Reporting + 1
Short Interest - 1
Sentiment + 1
Standard & Poor's - 1
MACD Histogram Divergence + 1
Val Idea + 1
Stock Consultant - 1
Point & Figure + 1
Wall Street Analyzer + 1
Marketspace Chart - 1
Time Series Chart + 1
Neural Network - 1
Stock Options - 1
Ultimate Trading Systems + 1
Total + 2
Place 305 shares of Carter's Inc. (CRI) on the Active List.