01-30-2019: Etsy, Inc. (ETSY): Doubtful Public Benefit

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Recommendation

Etsy, Inc.

It's complicated, but there are both benefits and drawbacks for a corporation to be a "B corporation" rather than a "C corporation." A "B Corporation" is independently certified to maintain certain sustainability and other public benefits which give it tax advantages and incentives. But the price to pay for that are restrictions on corporate structure and transparency that can limit management's ability to compete in the corporate world. Etsy Corporation (ETSY) sells hand-made goods from small independent retailers on its website and helps guide small business owners toward success in marketing their products. It was more or less forced to switch from "B" to "C" in order to stay competitive, and recent improvements in financial statements atest to that being the correct decision.

One thing that jumped out at us was an excessive salary paid to CEO Silverman who withdrew the corporation status as a public benefactor, and rightly so, in order to give management more flexibility (including his salary!) Still, the company's website is reasonably explanatory regarding missions and goals, and shareholder conern is evident in a CEO Letter. We were somewhat distressed at the number of risk factors enumerated in the Management Discussion section. Usually corporations to not go that far overboard to conservatively upgrade the riskiness of their organization.

A sudden jump in earnings after years of losses attracted attention of some analysts in a positive manner. Turnaround situations like this cause stock share prices to jump, but we think this corporation stock is way overvalued, with a very marginal Zenith Index. Institutions holding this stock are the types which buy "baskets" of stocks without much thought as to the relative merits of each one.

Researchers are overwhelming negative although the ones which are positive are looking at market sentiment and chart pattern which is very good on this stock. Stock consultant is so undecided as to suggest this stock would make a good trading vehicle in either direction. Current sentiment is very positive but with the stock chart looking a bit "toppy."

The main support for this stock in our Decision Matrix allowing us to rate it as a "buy" comes from the chart pattern. That could be subject to change on a dime, as the corporation itself suggests in its management analysis of results.

We would even go so far as to say this stock has the appearance of being "manipulated" to some degree by powerful interests.



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Zenith Index

Under current market conditions, a Zenith Index Score of 1.20 or above is required for a positive rating on this factor. 1.21 -1.30 is considered acceptable, 1.30-1.40 is considered strong and
> 1.40 is considered exceptionally strong. Accounting statements in this section often contain mistakes, especially in earlier years' totals, but data is deemed sufficient for us to give a rating. More accurate financial statements follow in the next section.

Etsy, Inc. (ETSY)                                         Exchange: Nasdaq
117 Adams Street
Brooklyn, NY 11201               Sector: Consumer
United States                    Industry: Specialty

Etsy, Inc. operates Etsy.com, a commerce platform to make, sell, and buy
goods online and offline primarily in the United States, United Kingdom,
Canada, Australia, France, and Germany. It provides various seller
services and tools that are designed to help entrepreneurs for starting,
managing, and scaling their businesses. The company offers approximately
50 million items across approximately 50 retail categories to buyers. It
also provides various seller services, including Etsy payments, a
payment processing service; promoted listings, an on-site advertising
service that allows sellers to pay for prominent placement of their
listings in search results; shipping labels, which allows sellers in the
United States and Canada to purchase discounted shipping labels; and
pattern, a service that allows sellers to build custom Websites, as well
as offers seller tools and education resources to manage the
administrative side of their businesses. Etsy, Inc. was founded in 2005
and is headquartered in Brooklyn, New York.

Last Trade:  54.92                           52-Week Range:  58.30 -  16.72
Employees: 851                               Avg.Volume:   2,697,232 Shares

Corporate Governance:
Pllar scores are Audit: 1; Board: 7; Shareholder Rights: 8; Compensation: 10.
         (A lower number means less governance risk.)

EPS:  0.64    Dividend Amount: $ 0.00          Yield:  0.00%
             Ex-Dividend Date: N/A             Payout Ratio:   0.00

Key Statistics:

    Trailing P/E:  84.60              Forward P/E (est.):  76.49
                                           Target Price:  56.92

Qrtly Stock Price Growth (yoy): 189.66%               Beta:   0.00
Qrtly S&P Index   Growth (yoy):  41.30%        Short Ratio:   3.36%
    Qrtly Revenue Growth (yoy):  -7.35%         Shares Out:  120460000
   Qrtly Earnings Growth (yoy): -22.90%

          Book Value:   3.28                    Debt/Equity:  70.92%
    Price/Book Value:  16.55        Operating Profit Margin:  12.66%
         Price/Sales:  12.12                  Profit Margin:  15.00%
         Market Cap:   6,542,000,000       Return on Equity:  21.81%
    Enterprise Value:   5,800,000,000      Return on Assets:   5.77%

    Operating Cash Flow:    132,230,000
         Free Cash Flow:     39,980,000



Annual Income Statement:                          (All numbers in thousands)
  Period Ending                             12/31/2017  12/31/2016  12/31/2015

  Total Revenue                                441,231     364,967     273,499
  Cost of Revenue                              150,248     123,328      96,979
  Gross Profit                                 290,983     241,639     176,520

Operating Expenses:
  Research & Development                        71,384      55,083      42,694
  Selling, General & Administrative            190,644     167,858     132,210
  Non-Recurring Expenses                             0           0           0
  Other Operating Expenses                           0           0           0
  Total Operating Expenses                     412,276     346,269     271,883

Operating Income or Loss                        28,955      18,698       1,616

Income from Continuing Operations:
  Total Other Income/Expenses Net                3,310     -21,574     -29,610
  Earnings Before Interest & Taxes              28,955      18,698       1,616
  Interest Expense                             -11,130      -7,204      -1,526
  Income Before Taxes                           32,265      -2,876     -27,994
  Income Tax Expense                           -49,535      27,025      26,069
  Minority Interest                                  0           0           0

Net Income from Continuing Op.s                 81,800     -29,901     -54,063

Non-recurring Events:
  Discontinued Operations                            0           0           0
  Extraordinary Items                                0           0           0
  Effect of Accounting Changes                       0           0           0
  Other Items                                        0           0           0
  Net Income                                    81,800     -29,901     -54,063
  Preferred Stock & Other Adjustments                0           0           0

Net Income Avail to Common Shares               81,720     -29,901     -54,063



Annual Cash Flow Statement:                   (All numbers in thousands)
  Period Ending                         12/31/2017    12/31/2016    12/31/2015

  Net Income                                81,800       -29,901       -54,063

Operating Activities:
  Depreciation                              18,988        16,192        11,250
  Adjustments to Net Income                -40,796        59,893        55,034
  Changes in Accounts Recv'bls              -8,826        -8,192        -6,739
  Changes in Liabilities                     3,271        -2,621         8,007
  Changes in Investories                         0             0             0
  Changes in other Oper'g Acts               4,311         8,106        12,199

Total Cash Flow f Operations                67,420        49,994        33,155

Investing Activities:
  Capital Exenditures                       -3,948       -35,981       -11,116
  Investments                               74,992       -79,800        -2,448
  Other Cash Flows fr Investing                  0             0             0

Total Cash Flows from Investing             61,836      -135,430       -23,283

Financing Activities:
  Dividends Paid                                 0             0             0
  Sale of Purchase of Stock                      0             0             0
  Net Borrowings                           -13,681        -6,086        -3,377
  Other Cash Flows fr Financing                  0          -649             0

Total Cash Flows from Financing              3,439         2,575       195,664

  Effect of Exchange Rate Chg                1,155        -6,791        -3,951

Change in Cash & Cash Equiv.               133,850       -89,652       201,585



Annual Balance Sheets:                              (All Numbers in Thousands)
  Period Ending                          12/31/2017    12/31/2016    12/31/2015
Current Assets:
  Cash & Cash Equivalents                   315,442       181,592       271,244
  Short Term Investments                     25,108       100,494        21,620
  Net Receivables                            33,677        26,426        20,275
  Inventory                                       0             0             0
  Other Current Assets                       44,658        46,949        36,394
  Total Current Assets                      469,101       254,967       327,913

  Long-Term Investments                           0             0             0
  Property, Plant & Equipt                   99,275       107,268        91,228
  Goodwill                                   38,541        35,657        27,752
  Intangible Assets                          22,442        26,646        16,664
  Accumulated Amortization                        0             0             0
  Other Assets                                6,061        40,590        58,363
  Deferred LT Asset Charges                       0             0             0

Total Assets                                605,583       581,193       553,061

Current Liabilities:
  Accounts Payable                           13,622        10,978        14,382
  Current Portion LT Debt                         0             0             0
  Other Current Liabilities                  55,656        42,022        28,877
  Total Current Liabilities                 102,477        84,008         80,122

  Long Term Debt                                  0             0             0
  Other Liabilities                         102,097       147,132       134,870
  Deferred LT Liab. Charges                       0        34,264             0
  Minority Interest                               0             0             0
  Negative Goodwill                               0             0             0

Total Liabilities                           208,689       236,436       222,563

Stockholder Equity:
  Misc. Options, Warrants                         0             0             0
  Redeemable Preferred Stock                      0             0             0
  Preferred Stock                                 0             0             0
  Common Stock                                  122           116           113
  Retained Earnings                         -96,290      -116,341       -86,440
  Treasury Stock                             -6,379        18,472        10,805
  Capital Surplus                           499,441       442,510       406,020
  Other Stockhohlder Equity                  -6,379        18,472        10,805
  Total Stockholder Equity                  396,894       344,757       330,498

Net Tangible Assets                         335,911       282,454       286,082


Etsy, Inc. (ETSY)                           [Indices near +3.0, near zero,
                                            or < zero bear special attention.]
P/E Ratio Tests:
P/E Ratio < 28?            0.3310          P/E Ratio > 5?             1.0000
P/E Ratio Vs Growth Rate: -3.0000          Forward P/E Ratio < 28?    0.3661
Price/Sales Ratio < 2.3?   0.1898          Inventory/Sales < 5%?      1.0000
Sales < $1 Billion?        2.2664          Operating Margin < 7.5%?   0.5924

Balance Sheet Tests:
Debt/Equity < 0.40?        0.5640          Long-Term Debt Service:    3.0000
LTD Being Reduced?         0.0000          Short-Term Debt Service:  -2.6015
Current Ratio > 2?         2.2888          Working Capital >= 1.5?    0.3321
Leverage Ratio < 20%?      3.0000          Debt/Assets < 1?           3.0000
Quick Ratio > 1?           3.0000          Inventory Turnover > 1?    1.0000
Share Equity Increase:     2.1944          Market Cap.< 1.5 Billion?  0.2293
                                           Intangibles < 3% Assets?   0.2979
Income Tests:
Profit Margin < 7.5%?      2.0000          EPS Annual Growth > 10%?  -0.0366
Dividend Yield > 2.0%?     0.0000          EPS 3-yr Growth > 15?     -0.0992
Enterprise Value/Revenue   3.0000          EPS Growth Consistent?     2.0000
Enterprise Value/EBITDA:   3.0000          Collection < 45 days?      1.6153
EPS Qrtly Growth > 10%?   -0.0044          Gross Pft/Cur. LTD > 1?    3.0000
                                           Borrowing Int. Rate < 6%?  3.0000
Stock Performance Tests:
Volatility > 25%?          2.8528          % Held by Insiders < 5%?   3.0000
Beta > 1.25?               0.0000          % Held by Institut. < 50?  0.5290
50 Da MA > 200 Da MA?      0.2180          % Held by Institut. > 30?  3.0000
52-Wk Change vs. S&P 500: -3.0000          Short Ratio > 5?           0.6720
Price/Book Value < 3?      0.1792          Short % of Float > 20?     0.3525
Return on Assets > 17%?    0.3394          Average Volume > 100,000?  3.0000

Cash Flow Tests:
Oper. C.F. > Lever'd C.F:  3.0000          Positive Free Cash Flow?   3.0000
Positive Oper. Cash Flow?  3.0000          Price to C.F.Ratio < 14?:  0.2840
                                           Cash Flow / Assets > 10%?  2.1912

ETSY   Etsy, Inc.                          Overall Zenith Index:      1.2071


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Financial Statements

ETSY INC  (ETSY)                            INCOME STATEMENT

Fiscal year ends in December. USD in thousan         2013-12         2014-12         2015-12         2016-12         2017-12             TTM           

Revenue                                              125,022         195,591         273,499         364,967         441,231         539,933
Cost of revenue                                       47,779          73,633          96,979         123,328         150,986         177,871
Gross profit                                          77,243         121,958         176,520         241,639         290,245         362,062


Operating expenses
Sales, General and administrative                     48,962          91,575         135,710         168,979         200,571         208,818
Other operating expenses                              27,548          36,634          42,694          55,083          74,616          86,495
Total operating expenses                              76,510         128,209         178,404         224,062         275,187         295,313

Operating income                                         733          -6,251          -1,884          17,577          15,058          66,749
Interest Expense                                         302             590           1,526           7,204          11,130          18,959
Other income (expense)                                  -373          -3,419         -24,584         -13,249          28,337           2,678
Income before income taxes                                58         -10,260         -27,994          -2,876          32,265          50,468
Provision for income taxes                               854           4,983          26,069          27,025         -49,535         -30,522
Net income from continuing operations                   -796         -15,243         -54,063         -29,901          81,800          80,990
Net income                                              -796         -15,243         -54,063         -29,901          81,800          80,990
Preferred dividend                                         0            -492               0               0              80              60
Net income available to common shareholders             -796         -14,751         -54,063         -29,901          81,720          80,930

Earnings per share
Basic                                                   0.00           -0.16           -0.59           -0.26            0.69            0.67 
Diluted                                                 0.00           -0.16           -0.59           -0.26            0.68            0.66 

Weighted average shares outstanding
Basic                                                 93,695          93,695          91,122         113,563         118,539         120,850
Diluted                                               93,695          93,695          91,122         113,563         122,268         126,130

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


ETSY INC  (ETSY)                            BALANCE SHEET

Fiscal year ends in December. USD in thousan         2013-12         2014-12         2015-12         2016-12         2017-12             

Assets

Current assets

Cash

Short-term investments                                18,075          19,184          21,620         100,494          25,108
Total cash                                            54,870          88,843         292,864         282,086         340,550

Receivables                                           16,392          25,977          39,537          56,243          78,335
Deferred income taxes                                  1,802           2,932          17,132          17,132               0
Prepaid expenses                                       3,721          12,241           9,521          15,571          20,379
Total current assets                                  76,785         129,993         359,054         371,032         439,264

Non-current assets

Property, plant and equipment
Fixtures and equipment                                41,744          51,165          63,909          80,448          91,022
Other properties                                       2,706          54,930          79,203          92,112          92,821
Property and equipment, at cost                       44,450         106,095         143,112         172,560         183,843
Accumulated Depreciation                             -21,343         -30,557         -38,091         -46,153         -66,226
Property, plant and equipment, net                    23,107          75,538         105,021         126,407         117,617
Goodwill                                               5,346          30,831          27,752          35,657          38,541

Intangible assets                                        493           5,410           2,871           7,507           4,100
Deferred income taxes                                      0               0          51,396          34,264               0
Other long-term assets                                   428           7,363           6,967           6,326           6,061
Total non-current assets                              29,374         119,142         194,007         210,161         166,319

Total assets                                         106,159         249,135         553,061         581,193         605,583 

Liabilities and stockholders' equity

Liabilities

Current liabilities
Capital leases                                           780           1,755           5,610           6,829           5,798
Accounts payable                                      10,636          18,804          33,644          40,795          58,280
Accrued liabilities                                    5,043          17,442          31,253          24,179          28,743
Deferred revenues                                      2,760           3,452           4,712           5,648           6,262
Other current liabilities                                  0               0           4,903           6,557           3,394
Total current liabilities                             19,219          41,453          80,122          84,008         102,477

Non-current liabilities
Capital leases                                            38          53,468          59,375          62,656          64,164
Deferred taxes liabilities                             1,259           3,081          61,420          65,068          23,786
Other long-term liabilities                           81,640           1,913          21,646          24,704          18,262
Total non-current liabilities                         82,937          58,462         142,441         152,428         106,212

Total liabilities                                    102,156          99,915         222,563         236,436         208,689 

Stockholders' equity

Common stock                                              33              97             113             116             122
Additional paid-in capital                            20,944         185,434         406,020         442,510         499,441
Retained earnings                                    -17,134         -32,377         -86,440        -116,341         -96,290
Accumulated other comprehensive income                   160          -3,934          10,805          18,472          -6,379
Total stockholders' equity                             4,003         149,220         330,498         344,757         396,894
Total liabilities and stockholders' equity           106,159         249,135         553,061         581,193         605,583

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


ETSY INC  (ETSY)                            Statement of CASH FLOW

Fiscal year ends in December. USD in thousan         2013-12         2014-12         2015-12         2016-12         2017-12             TTM           

Cash Flows From Operating Activities
Depreciation & amortization                           12,380          17,223          18,550          22,525          27,197          25,693
Investment/asset impairment charges                    1,002           1,881           1,780           2,321           5,659           7,217
Investments losses (gains)                               419             411           3,133               0               0               0
Deferred income taxes                                      0            -817          17,132          17,132         -47,972         -28,959
Stock based compensation                               3,834          10,050          10,841          15,901          26,559          29,978
Accounts receivable                                   -7,739         -10,172         -15,764         -19,102         -22,303         -31,991
Prepaid expenses                                      -1,667          -5,820            -266          -6,186          -4,429          -1,559
Accounts payable                                       4,705           4,926          15,753           7,325          16,314          24,004
Accrued liabilities                                    1,960          11,463          12,395          11,193           3,207          11,451
Other working capital                                  1,781            -134          -2,797           6,257           5,967          10,841
Other non-cash items                                    -133         -16,924         -31,546         -10,607          57,221          85,555
Net cash provided by operating activities             16,542          12,087          29,211          46,759          67,420         132,230

Cash Flows From Investing Activities
Investments in property, plant, and equipmen         -17,072          -9,584         -20,835         -47,750         -13,156         -15,358
Acquisitions, net                                       -675          -4,688               0          -7,880               0               0
Purchases of investments                                 -39         -21,698         -26,040        -160,504         -62,348        -374,722
Sales/Maturities of investments                        2,761          20,588          23,592          80,704         137,340         205,243
Other investing charges                                    0          -5,341               0               0               0         -35,323
Net cash used for investing activities               -15,025         -20,723         -23,283        -135,430          61,836        -220,160

Cash Flows From Financing Activities
Long-term debt repayment                              -1,265          -1,480          -3,377          -6,086         -13,681         -16,078
Excess tax benefit from stock based compe                 22           4,877           3,944           3,235               0               0
Common stock issued                                        0          35,000         199,467               0               0               0
Repurchases of treasury stock                           -188               0               0          -1,258         -16,718        -118,618
Other financing activities                             1,328           6,840            -426           9,919          33,838         328,289
Net cash provided by (used for) financing               -103          45,237         199,608           5,810           3,439         193,593

Effect of exchange rate changes                          446          -3,737          -3,951          -6,791           1,155          -3,224
Net change in cash                                     1,860          32,864         201,585         -89,652         133,850         102,439
Cash at beginning of period                           34,935          36,795          69,659         271,244         181,592         265,629
Cash at end of period                                 36,795          69,659         271,244         181,592         315,442         368,068

Free Cash Flow
Operating cash flow                                   16,542          12,087          29,211          46,759          67,420         132,230
Capital expenditure                                  -17,072          -9,584         -20,835         -47,750         -13,156         -15,358
Free cash flow                                          -530           2,503           8,376            -991          54,264         116,872
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________





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Average to Current P/E Ratios
              (ETSY)     Etsy Inc.

                               2014    2015    2016    2017    2018

          Annual Earnings:    -0.01   -0.14   -0.59   -0.26    0.68
Average Price During Year:    31.00   14.10   11.08   13.95   35.77

                P/E Ratio:   3100.00  100.74   18.78   53.67   52.60

   Average 5-Year P/E Ratio  = 665.16
             Current Price =  55

Previous 5 Quarter Earnings:   0.21    0.36    0.10    0.03    0.15

          Current Annualized (Last Four Quarters) Earnings =   0.28
                                                           ________
                                 Average PE / Current PE =     3.39
                                                           --------

                                      ...a number above 1.00 is good
                                                1.00 or below is bad


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Institutional Orders to Buy or Sell:

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Ownership:

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Sentiment

sentiment

Zenith uses the "sentiment" score above or below 50 to award a positive or negative point in the Decision Matrix.

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Short Interest Ratio

As the short interest rises as a percentage of average daily share volume (Days to Cover), this is considered a measure of negative sentiment. Similarly, a decrease in that percentage is considered positive sentiment.

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Channeling Potential

 
The summary below includes a value for `Degree,' which refers on a
scale of 1 to 10 the range of a channel in the period under consi-
deration compared to the total range of price movement. It also looks
for the last closing price to be within the channel, otherwise zeroed.
The `Index' is the `Degree' weighted for volatility.  Generally, the
the higher the index, the more suitable is the stock for trading as
a `rolling stock' between channel high and low points.

Results for ETSY INC.:
Symbol? ETSY
Total Months Available:  45
       Months in Cycle?   4

Months Covered by Periods:  12

Period 1           Period 2          Period 3
   H1      L1        H2      L2        H3      L3
  31.83   16.72     53.25   28.99     58.30   38.02

RANGE   =  58.30  TO   16.72            Close =  55.00
CHANNEL =  38.02  TO   31.83           Degree =   1
Volatility =  11.25%                    Index =   1
Channel Chart



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MACD Histogram Divergence

The theory is that connecting the two most recent peaks or valleys of the MACD histogram will signal the direction of the next major move.



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2 Days:



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Val Idea

3 out of 8 favorable, (negative opinion.)

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Time Series Forecast

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Neural Network Prediction

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Ultimate Trading Systems

2 out of 3 of the ultimate systems favor an upmove.


System Below:
Short term outlook: Positive: Bright Green, Negative: Bright Red
Long term outlook: Postive: Dark Green, Negative: Dark Red.




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Recommendation

Decision Weighting Factors
FactorsWeighted Points
News + 1
Comparison - 1
Industry - 1
Bond Issue - 1
Zenith Index + 1
Non-GAAP vs. GAAP Earnings - 1
Cash Flow + 1
Average to Current P/E + 1
Ratios - 1
Intrinsic Value DCF 0
Fair Value Estimator - 1
Projected Earnings + 1
Research Reports - 1
Analysts + 1
Executive Perquisites - 1
Insider Activity - 1
Institutional Activity + 1
Management Reporting + 1
Short Interest + 1
Sentiment + 1
Standard & Poor's - 1
MACD Histogram Divergence - 1
Val Idea - 1
Stock Consultant 0
Point & Figure + 1
Wall Street Analyzer + 1
Marketspace Chart + 1
Time Series Chart - 1
Neural Network - 1
Stock Options + 1
Ultimate Trading Systems + 1
Total + 1
Place 560 shares of Etsy, Inc. (ETSY) on the Active List.