07-06-2019: Enphase Energy Inc. (ENPH): Trade Wars Hinder the Solar Group

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Recommendation

Enphase Energy Inc.

For quite some time, solar stocks have been at the bottom of the industry group performance list. American manufacturers outsourced most or all of the electronics to places like China and Mexico. Recent threats of tariff impositions have hurt American solar stocks like Enphase Energy Inc. (ENPH). ENPH sells not only the solar panels but also the inverters and entire residential electronics systems to interconnect with the utility company. Any trade negotiation rumors tend to make solar stocks jump one way or the other, and recent optimism regarding trade deals with Mexico and China have caused all solar stocks to surge, but in particular Enphase Energy Inc.

The stock is a potential "turnaround" stock and solar installations in America have been on a high-growth rise. But ENPH has been losing money for years, and analysts now project much stronger earnings to follow. Tariffs on solar-related equipment were backed away when the Administration felt pressure from many American manufacturers watching their products be priced out of sight. It helped neither renewable energy and environmental considerations nor American companies. The cost of tariffs would be paid by American customers, not China or Mexico in some of the stupidist nonsense projected by any recent administration to try to fool consumers into believing America was somehow being "cheated" by foreign interests.

Enphase is California-based but has a large international presence. It has an unacceptably low Zenith Index indicating poor past fundamentals, although McLean likes it as the only solar manufacturer with acceptable cash flow in its opinion.

Researchers and analysts are "mixed" but edging toward positive on ENPH and institutions are net acquirers. Management seems reasonably compensated to us but Pillar scores suggest otherwise regarding compensation and shareholder rights. The company continues to borrow and issue stock to finance expansion.

Charts are recently almost straight up, along with stocks of other solar panel manufacturers, suggesting the group as a whole is temporarily "in vogue" with investor sentiment. The stocks seem quite risky to us. Enphase is definitely the strongest stock performer in the group.

Enphase's international presence has a large part of its revenues coming in from overseas installations which are growing perhaps even faster than those in America. 



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Zenith Index

Under current market conditions, a Zenith Index Score of 1.20 or above is required for a positive rating on this factor. 1.21 -1.30 is considered acceptable, 1.30-1.40 is considered strong and
> 1.40 is considered exceptionally strong. Accounting statements in this section often contain mistakes, especially in earlier years' totals, but data is deemed sufficient for us to give a rating. More accurate financial statements follow in the next section.

Enphase Energy, Inc. (ENPH)                               Exchange: Nasdaq
47281 Bayside Parkway
Fremont, CA 94538                Sector: Technology
United States                    Industry: Semiconductor Equipment & Mater

Enphase Energy, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops,
and sells home energy solutions for the solar photovoltaic industry in
the United States and internationally. The company offers
semiconductor-based microinverter that converts energy at the individual
solar module level and combines with its proprietary networking and
software technologies to provide energy monitoring and control services.
It sells its solutions primarily to distributors, as well as directly to
large installers, original equipment manufacturers, strategic partners,
and homeowners. Enphase Energy, Inc. was founded in 2006 and is
headquartered in Fremont, California.

Last Trade:  18.56                           52-Week Range:  19.23 -   3.70
Employees: 427                               Avg.Volume:   3,046,095 Shares

Corporate Governance:
Pillar scores are Audit: 2; Board: 6; Shareholder Rights: 8; Compensation: 9.
         (A lower number means less governance risk.)

EPS: -0.04    Dividend Amount: $ 0.00          Yield:  0.00%
             Ex-Dividend Date: N/A             Payout Ratio:   0.00

Key Statistics:

    Trailing P/E:   0.00              Forward P/E (est.):  29.18
                                           Target Price:  16.94

Qrtly Stock Price Growth (yoy): 164.76%               Beta:   0.00
Qrtly S&P Index   Growth (yoy):   0.00%        Short Ratio:   4.53%
    Qrtly Revenue Growth (yoy):   8.64%         Shares Out:  110230000
   Qrtly Earnings Growth (yoy):   0.00%

          Book Value:   0.00                    Debt/Equity:   0.00%
    Price/Book Value: 148.20        Operating Profit Margin:   0.00%
         Price/Sales:   6.63                  Profit Margin:   0.00%
         Market Cap:   2,296,000,000       Return on Equity:   0.00%
    Enterprise Value:   2,050,000,000      Return on Assets:   0.00%

    Operating Cash Flow:         16,132
         Free Cash Flow:        -83,633



Annual Income Statement:                          (All numbers in thousands)
  Period Ending                             12/31/2018  12/31/2017  12/31/2016

  Total Revenue                                316,159     286,166     322,591
  Cost of Revenue                              221,714     230,123     264,583
  Gross Profit                                  94,445      56,043      58,008

Operating Expenses:
  Research & Development                        32,587      33,157      50,703
  Selling, General & Administrative             55,333      45,347      66,228
  Non-Recurring Expenses                             0           0           0
  Other Operating Expenses                           0       1,468         579
  Total Operating Expenses                     309,634     308,627     381,514

Operating Income or Loss                         6,525     -22,461     -58,923

Income from Continuing Operations:
  Total Other Income/Expenses Net              -16,754     -22,880      -7,064
  Earnings Before Interest & Taxes               6,525     -22,461     -58,923
  Interest Expense                              -9,635      -7,936      -2,773
  Income Before Taxes                          -10,229     -45,341     -65,987
  Income Tax Expense                             1,398        -149       1,475
  Minority Interest                                  0           0           0

Net Income from Continuing Op.s                -11,627     -45,192     -67,462

Non-recurring Events:
  Discontinued Operations                            0           0           0
  Extraordinary Items                                0           0           0
  Effect of Accounting Changes                       0           0           0
  Other Items                                        0           0           0
  Net Income                                   -11,627     -45,192     -67,462
  Preferred Stock & Other Adjustments                0           0           0

Net Income Avail to Common Shares              -11,627     -45,192     -67,462



Annual Cash Flow Statement:                   (All numbers in thousands)
  Period Ending                         12/31/2018    12/31/2017    12/31/2016

  Net Income                               -11,627       -45,192       -67,462

Operating Activities:
  Depreciation                               8,758         9,004        10,638
  Adjustments to Net Income                 13,867         7,490        16,624
  Changes in Accounts Recv'bls             -13,515        -4,803       -18,017
  Changes in Liabilities                    16,959           250        20,171
  Changes in Investories                     9,732         5,961         8,840
  Changes in other Oper'g Acts             -11,652        -2,825        -3,892

Total Cash Flow f Operations                16,132       -28,442       -32,953

Investing Activities:
  Capital Exenditures                       -4,151        -4,121       -12,167
  Investments                                    0             0             0
  Other Cash Flows fr Investing                  0             0             0

Total Cash Flows from Investing            -19,151        -4,121       -11,795

Financing Activities:
  Dividends Paid                                 0             0             0
  Sale of Purchase of Stock                      0             0             0
  Net Borrowings                            58,048        16,342        17,089
  Other Cash Flows fr Financing                  0             0             0

Total Cash Flows from Financing             80,614        43,297        34,375

  Effect of Exchange Rate Chg                 -502           646          -315

Change in Cash & Cash Equiv.                77,093        11,380       -10,688



Annual Balance Sheets:                              (All Numbers in Thousands)
  Period Ending                          12/31/2018    12/31/2017    12/31/2016
Current Assets:
  Cash & Cash Equivalents                   106,237        29,144        17,764
  Short Term Investments                          0             0             0
  Net Receivables                            92,454        65,346        61,019
  Inventory                                  16,267        25,999        31,960
  Other Current Assets                            0             0             0
  Total Current Assets                      214,958       120,489       110,743

  Long-Term Investments                           0             0             0
  Property, Plant & Equipt                   20,298        25,383        29,540
  Goodwill                                   24,783         3,664         3,664
  Intangible Assets                          36,006         1,615         2,845
  Accumulated Amortization                        0             0             0
  Other Assets                               36,548         8,039         9,663
  Deferred LT Asset Charges                       0             0             0

Total Assets                                339,937       169,147       163,576

Current Liabilities:
  Accounts Payable                           48,794        28,747        31,696
  Current Portion LT Debt                    28,155        17,429         3,032
  Other Current Liabilities                  41,202        23,118        15,007
  Total Current Liabilities                 147,161        91,741         82,772

  Long Term Debt                             81,628        32,322        20,768
  Other Liabilities                         103,372        54,210        58,736
  Deferred LT Liab. Charges                       0             0             0
  Minority Interest                               0             0             0
  Negative Goodwill                               0             0             0

Total Liabilities                           332,161       178,273       162,276

Stockholder Equity:
  Misc. Options, Warrants                         0             0             0
  Redeemable Preferred Stock                      0             0             0
  Preferred Stock                                 0             0             0
  Common Stock                                    1             1             1
  Retained Earnings                        -346,302      -295,727      -250,535
  Treasury Stock                                742          -656          -292
  Capital Surplus                           353,335       287,256       252,126
  Other Stockhohlder Equity                     742          -656          -292
  Total Stockholder Equity                    7,776        -9,126         1,300

Net Tangible Assets                         -53,013       -14,405        -5,209



Enphase Energy, Inc. (ENPH)                 [Indices near +3.0, near zero,
                                            or < zero bear special attention.]
P/E Ratio Tests:
P/E Ratio < 28?            0.0000          P/E Ratio > 5?             0.0000
P/E Ratio Vs Growth Rate:  0.0000          Forward P/E Ratio < 28?    0.9596
Price/Sales Ratio < 2.3?   0.3469          Inventory/Sales < 5%?      0.9718
Sales < $1 Billion?        3.0000          Operating Margin < 7.5%?   0.0000

Balance Sheet Tests:
Debt/Equity < 0.40?        1.0000          Long-Term Debt Service:    0.0953
LTD Being Reduced?        -3.0000          Short-Term Debt Service:  -0.6772
Current Ratio > 2?         0.7303          Working Capital >= 1.5?    1.0406
Leverage Ratio < 20%?      0.5267          Debt/Assets < 1?           3.0000
Quick Ratio > 1?           3.0000          Inventory Turnover > 1?    0.0525
Share Equity Increase:    -3.0000          Market Cap.< 1.5 Billion?  0.6533
                                           Intangibles < 3% Assets?   0.1678
Income Tests:
Profit Margin < 7.5%?      0.0000          EPS Annual Growth > 10%?   0.3887
Dividend Yield > 2.0%?     0.0000          EPS 3-yr Growth > 15?      0.8703
Enterprise Value/Revenue   3.0000          EPS Growth Consistent?     2.0000
Enterprise Value/EBITDA:   3.0000          Collection < 45 days?      0.4216
EPS Qrtly Growth > 10%?    0.0000          Gross Pft/Cur. LTD > 1?    3.0000
                                           Borrowing Int. Rate < 6%? -0.5083
Stock Performance Tests:
Volatility > 25%?          3.0000          % Held by Insiders < 5%?   0.1758
Beta > 1.25?               0.0000          % Held by Institut. < 50?  1.0389
50 Da MA > 200 Da MA?      0.9698          % Held by Institut. > 30?  1.6043
52-Wk Change vs. S&P 500:  3.0000          Short Ratio > 5?           0.9060
Price/Book Value < 3?      3.0000          Short % of Float > 20?     0.7470
Return on Assets > 17%?    0.0000          Average Volume > 100,000?  3.0000

Cash Flow Tests:
Oper. C.F. > Lever'd C.F: -0.1929          Positive Free Cash Flow?  -1.0000
Positive Oper. Cash Flow?  3.0000          Price to C.F.Ratio < 14?:  0.7067
                                           Cash Flow / Assets > 10%?  3.0000

ENPH   Enphase Energy, Inc.                Overall Zenith Index:      0.8979


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Financial Statements

ENPHASE ENERGY INC  (ENPH)                  INCOME STATEMENT

Fiscal year ends in December. USD in thousan         2014-12         2015-12         2016-12         2017-12         2018-12             TTM           

Revenue                                              343,904         357,249         322,591         286,166         316,159         346,337
Cost of revenue                                      230,861         249,032         264,583         230,123         221,714         236,868
Gross profit                                         113,043         108,217          58,008          56,043          94,445         109,469


Operating expenses
Research and development                              45,386          50,819          50,703          33,157          32,587          33,491
Sales, General and administrative                     72,086          76,707          66,228          45,347          56,133          60,276
Restructuring, merger and acquisition                      0               0           3,777          16,917           4,129           4,497
Other operating expenses                                   0               0          -3,777         -16,917          -4,129          -4,497
Total operating expenses                             117,472         127,526         116,931          78,504          88,720          93,767

Operating income                                      -4,429         -19,309         -58,923         -22,461           5,725          15,702
Interest Expense                                       1,863             501           2,773           7,936           9,635          10,883
Other income (expense)                                  -994            -893          -4,291         -14,944          -6,319          -7,042
Income before taxes                                   -7,286         -20,703         -65,987         -45,341         -10,229          -2,223
Provision for income taxes                               766           1,379           1,475            -149           1,398           1,511
Net income from continuing operations                 -8,052         -22,082         -67,462         -45,192         -11,627          -3,734
Net income                                            -8,052         -22,082         -67,462         -45,192         -11,627          -3,734
Net income available to common shareholders           -8,052         -22,082         -67,462         -45,192         -11,627          -3,734

Earnings per share
Basic                                                  -0.19           -0.49           -1.34           -0.54           -0.12           -0.03 
Diluted                                                -0.19           -0.49           -1.34           -0.54           -0.12           -0.04 

Weighted average shares outstanding
Basic                                                 42,903          44,632          50,519          82,939          99,619         103,812
Diluted                                               42,903          44,632          50,519          82,939          99,619         105,729

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


ENPHASE ENERGY INC  (ENPH)                  BALANCE SHEET

Fiscal year ends in December. USD in thousan         2014-12         2015-12         2016-12         2017-12         2018-12             

Assets

Current assets

Cash

Total cash                                            42,032          28,452          17,764          29,144         106,237

Receivables                                           45,119          46,099          61,019          65,346          78,938
Inventories                                           21,590          40,800          31,960          25,999          16,267
Prepaid expenses                                       6,155           6,417           7,121           9,957          20,860
Total current assets                                 114,896         121,768         117,864         130,446         222,302

Non-current assets

Property, plant and equipment
Gross property, plant and equipment                   54,601          63,627          71,110          70,921          72,895
Accumulated Depreciation                             -23,777         -31,509         -39,670         -44,438         -51,897
Net property, plant and equipment                     30,824          32,118          31,440          26,483          20,998

Goodwill                                               3,745           3,745           3,664           3,664          24,783
Intangible assets                                      1,811           2,220             945             515          35,306
Other long-term assets                                   916           5,677           9,663           8,039          36,548
Total non-current assets                              37,296          43,760          45,712          38,701         117,635

Total assets                                         152,192         165,528         163,576         169,147         339,937 

Liabilities and stockholders' equity

Liabilities

Current liabilities
Short-term debt                                            0          17,000          13,132          17,429          28,155
Accounts payable                                      22,316          25,569          31,696          28,747          48,794
Accrued liabilities                                   33,643          26,364          31,533          29,874          37,093
Deferred revenues                                      2,747           3,915           6,411          15,691          33,119
Total current liabilities                             58,706          72,848          82,772          91,741         147,161

Non-current liabilities
Long-term debt                                             0               0          20,768          32,322          81,628
Accrued liabilities                                   26,333          23,475          22,818          22,389          23,211
Deferred revenues                                     16,612          25,115          33,893          29,941          76,911
Other long-term liabilities                            3,589           2,641           2,025           1,880           3,250
Total non-current liabilities                         46,534          51,231          79,504          86,532         185,000

Total liabilities                                    105,240         124,079         162,276         178,273         332,161 

Stockholders' equity

Common stock                                               0               0               1               1               1
Additional paid-in capital                           208,022         224,732         252,126         287,256         353,335
Retained earnings                                   -160,991        -183,073        -250,535        -295,727        -346,302
Accumulated other comprehensive income                   -79            -210            -292            -656             742
Total stockholders' equity                            46,952          41,449           1,300          -9,126           7,776
Total liabilities and stockholders' equity           152,192         165,528         163,576         169,147         339,937

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


ENPHASE ENERGY INC  (ENPH)                  Statement of CASH FLOW

Fiscal year ends in December. USD in thousan         2014-12         2015-12         2016-12         2017-12         2018-12             TTM           

Cash Flows From Operating Activities
Net income                                            -8,052         -22,082         -67,462         -45,192         -11,627          -3,734
Depreciation & amortization                            8,259          10,539          10,638           9,004           9,667          10,963
Investment/asset impairment charges                      249             522           3,190           1,681           1,601               0
Deferred income taxes                                      0             642             651          -1,394             123               0
Stock based compensation                               9,740          12,696          10,326           6,727          11,432          13,151
Change in working capital                             12,832         -23,315           7,102          -1,417           1,524           1,813
Accounts receivable                                  -13,746          -2,482         -18,017          -4,803         -13,515         -25,906
Inventory                                             -5,010         -19,210           8,840           5,961           9,732           5,571
Prepaid expenses                                      -2,547          -5,281          -4,759          -1,227          -3,130          -4,504
Accounts payable                                      25,325          -2,620           8,897          -5,078          23,082          39,600
Accrued liabilities                                    3,508          -3,393             867          -1,598           1,478             417
Other working capital                                  5,302           9,671          11,274           5,328         -16,123         -13,365
Other non-cash items                                   1,194            -162           2,602           2,149           3,412           7,641
Net cash provided by operating activities             24,222         -21,160         -32,953         -28,442          16,132          29,834

Cash Flows From Investing Activities
Investments in property, plant, and equipmen         -13,249         -12,525         -12,167          -4,121          -4,151          -3,766
Acquisitions, net                                     -2,235               0           1,050               0         -15,000               0
Purchases of intangibles                                -750            -237            -678               0               0               0
Other investing activities                              -300             300               0               0               0         -15,000
Net cash used for investing activities               -16,534         -12,462         -11,795          -4,121         -19,151         -18,766

Cash Flows From Financing Activities
Debt issued                                                0          46,000          33,989          26,442          68,024          65,715
Debt repayment                                        -8,708         -29,000         -16,900         -10,100          -9,976         -53,936
Common stock issued                                        0               0          16,142          26,425          19,766            -157
Other financing activities                             5,366           3,564           1,144             530           2,800           2,840
Net cash provided by (used for) financing             -3,342          20,564          34,375          43,297          80,614          14,462

Effect of exchange rate changes                         -504            -522            -315             646            -502            -698
Net change in cash                                     3,842         -13,580         -10,688          11,380          77,093          24,832
Cash at beginning of period                           38,190          42,032          28,452          17,764          29,144          53,255
Cash at end of period                                 42,032          28,452          17,764          29,144         106,237          78,087

Free Cash Flow
Operating cash flow                                   24,222         -21,160         -32,953         -28,442          16,132          29,834
Capital expenditure                                  -13,999         -12,762         -12,845          -4,121          -4,151          -3,766
Free cash flow                                        10,223         -33,922         -45,798         -32,563          11,981          26,068
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________





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Average to Current P/E Ratios
              (ENPH)     Enphase Energy Inc.

                               2014    2015    2016    2017    2018

          Annual Earnings:    -0.19   -0.49   -1.34   -0.54   -0.12
Average Price During Year:     9.93    8.92    2.06    1.27    4.66

                P/E Ratio:    52.24   18.20    1.54    2.35   38.84

 Average 5-Year P/E Ratio  =  22.63
             Current Price =  18.97

Previous 5 Quarter Earnings:  -0.06   -0.04   -0.03    0.01    0.02

          Current Annualized (Last Four Quarters) Earnings =   0.00
                                                           ________
                                 Average PE / Current PE =     0.00
                                                           --------

                                      ...a number above 1.00 is good
                                                1.00 or below is bad


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Channeling Potential

 
The summary below includes a value for `Degree,' which refers on a
scale of 1 to 10 the range of a channel in the period under consi-
deration compared to the total range of price movement. It also looks
for the last closing price to be within the channel, otherwise zeroed.
The `Index' is the `Degree' weighted for volatility.  Generally, the
the higher the index, the more suitable is the stock for trading as
a `rolling stock' between channel high and low points.

Results for ENPHASE ENERGY INC.:
Symbol? ENPH
Total Months Available:  87
       Months in Cycle?   4

Months Covered by Periods:  12

Period 1           Period 2          Period 3
   H1      L1        H2      L2        H3      L3
   7.60    3.70      9.40    4.10     19.13    8.03

RANGE   =  19.13  TO    3.70            Close =  18.97
CHANNEL =   8.03  TO    7.60           Degree =   0
Volatility =   2.27%                    Index =   0
Channel Chart



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2 Days:



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2 out of 8 favorable, (negative opinion.)

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Short term outlook: Positive: Bright Green, Negative: Bright Red
Long term outlook: Postive: Dark Green, Negative: Dark Red.




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Recommendation

Decision Weighting Factors
FactorsWeighted Points
News + 1
Comparison - 1
Industry + 1
Bond Issue + 1
Zenith Index - 1
Non-GAAP vs. GAAP Earnings - 1
Cash Flow + 1
Average to Current P/E - 1
Ratios - 1
Intrinsic Value DCF - 1
Fair Value Estimator - 1
Projected Earnings + 1
Research Reports + 1
Analysts + 1
Executive Perquisites + 1
Insider Activity - 1
Institutional Activity + 1
Management Reporting + 1
Short Interest + 1
Sentiment + 1
Standard & Poor's - 1
MACD Histogram Divergence - 1
Val Idea - 1
Stock Consultant - 1
Point & Figure + 1
Wall Street Analyzer + 1
Marketspace Chart - 1
Time Series Chart + 1
Neural Network + 1
Stock Options + 1
Ultimate Trading Systems + 1
Total + 6
Place 1,620 shares of Enphase Energy Inc. (ENPH) on the Active List.