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09-12-2019: Where Is the Little Guy in all this Stock Market Hype?

Much as we detest the bandits in the executive branch and senate of the U.S. today, we will have to concede one thing. If you had bought just about any stock at the start of the Trump Administration and held on through all the hype and distortions coming out of Washington, you would probably be much richer today. How long can this go on? And does the little guy own much stock? Irresponsible borrowing and driving up the national debt which Trump hopes to pay with zero or even negative interest rates, has not slowed down an upward market momentum designed to benefit the very rich. Valuations are out of sight, and a recession seems inevitable, but stocks just keep going up and up. While they may be riding on air, the inscrutable stock market defies even the smartest traders to figure it out. When the crash comes, and it will, the bandits in Washington putting out all the "hype" may be gone. But their memory will linger on for generations of future citizens obligated to pay their Republican grandparents' debt. We think if Trump had his way, as he has done in all his private dealings, the ultimate answer woiuld be to default on the "full faith and credit" of the U.S. Government. That would end irresponsible borrowing forever. Meanwhile, the stock market seems to just keep going up and up, heading towards another 1929.

Our recent article on the S&P 500 Index is in the Archives Section below.

09-12-2019: Some Commodities We Haven't Currently Reviewed

How do we pick a commodity for review? Here are technical strength or weakness ratings for 09/11//2019 on the other major commodities not being currently being reviewed or traded on this site. One way to choose a commodity for review is to look at the previous activity and compare it to the present one, to see if there were any dramatic changes. Commodities currently under review on our list of about 18 on this site are not shown below. It's just a way of keeping track of what else is going on with other commodities.


The ratings are good only for date shown, and rapidly change each day, whereas we review the list only periodically. Once a commodity appears on our list of articles and is being currently traded, we consider its long-term direction has been established and trade consistently from that direction wtihout worrying about day-to-day changes. However, that procedure is not the one we use in swing trading stocks.

Archive List

09-12-2019: December S&P 500 Index: How Is the Little Guy Benefitted?

08-26-2019: October Milk, Class III: Dairy Farms Driven Out of Business

08-20-2019: December Live Cattle: Plant Fire Causes Backlog

08-14-2019: December Chicago Wheat: Too Much Around

08-11-2019: December Soybean Oil: China Allowed to Dominate Market

08-03-2019: December Cotton: New Tariffs Sink Agricultural Economy

07-29-2019: September Copper: Renewable Energy Sources Demand Copper

07-25-2019: October World Sugar: Supplies Plentiful

07-17-2019: September Lumber: Canadian Mill Curtailment

07-10-2019: September Australian Dollar: Depending Upon U.S. Federal Reserve Decisioins

07-03-2019: August Feeder Cattle: Feed Costs Moderate

06-23-2019: September U.S. Dollar Index: Interest Rate Cut Rumors

06-17-2019: August Gold: Mideast Crises, Interest Rates and National Debt Force Gold Up

06-09-2019: September Canadian Dollar: Trade Wars and Interest Rates

06-03-2019: August Crude Oil: Deflationary Pressures

05-15-2019: August Lean Hogs: African Swine Fever Vs. Trump Trade Mess

05-05-2019: June Ethanol: E15 Mandates Help

04-30-2019: July Soybeans: Flooding Causes Planting Intentions Switch



Performance

Updated once a week (usually on Saturdays) unless the preceding week had less than five trading days.

The milk trade involved a roll forward from September to October.

All Commodities Trades: 07/01/2019 - 09/21/2019

 # Commodity           BS    Buy   Sell   Last    Gain Intended  Rough   Group
                                                 (Loss)    Risk Percent

 9 Oct Ethanol          C 136.00 140.40 136.20 $ 11,214  14,355  11.5% Energies
10 Dec Australian Dollr C  68.05  68.83  67.82 $  7,500  14,900  12.6% Currency
26 Dec Soybean Oil      L  29.50         29.40 $ -2,340  14,976  17.6% Grains  
13 Dec Canadian Dollar  C  75.48  75.31  75.40 $ -2,600   2,210  12.6% Currency
 4 Nov Crude Oil        C  57.81  63.63  58.09 $ 23,160  14,960  11.5% Energies
 5 Dec Cotton #2        C  60.44  62.53  60.52 $  5,075  14,975   5.9% Cotton  
30 Oct Milk Cl.III      C  18.37  19.74  18.66 $ 81,300  14,400   5.7% Dairy   
 8 Dec U.S.Dollar Index C  97.90  98.00  98.14 $    560  14,880  12.6% Currency
 2 Dec S & P 500 E-Mini C 299.27 301.24 298.95 $ 19,640  14,700   5.8% Stock Id
 4 Dec Gold             C 149.67 151.84 151.51 $  8,560  14,680   5.8% Prec Met
 4 Dec Feeder Cattle    C 134.08 139.04 139.20 $  9,800  14,980  17.7% Meats   
 5 Dec Lean Hogs        C  65.21  71.31  66.25 $ 12,050  14,980  17.7% Meats   
 3 Dec Hi Grade Copper  C 289.70 269.10 260.60 $-15,540  14,775   5.8% Copper  
 4 Nov Lumber           S        389.60 383.80 $  2,432  14,960   5.9% Lumber  
 9 Dec Live Cattle      C 104.17 105.83 105.15 $  5,706  14,976  17.7% Meats   
 7 Nov Soybeans         C 884.40 901.10 882.80 $  5,635  14,945  17.6% Grains  
14 Mar Sugar #11 World  C  11.97  12.43  12.07 $  6,793  14,739   5.8% Softs   
 9 Dec Chicago Wheat    C 482.80 489.00 484.20 $  2,520  14,895  17.6% Grains  

            Adjustment for Open Positions: -($       92)

Prior to 9/16:
Other Gains/-Losses This Reporting Period:   $  889,633  ***
 ***  For Contracts Closed or Rolled Forward  __________
 
Total for all Trades:                        $1,071,006

Stocks Site.

Music of Francis Poulenc

Trading in commodities involves substantial risk and past performance is no guarantee of future profits.  Zenith does not sell advice nor does it manage discretionary accounts other than its own. Readers should be aware of the vested interest that all traders/brokers have in encouraging other traders to make the same transactions.  No one should follow investment advice blindly.  This web site should be used only as a "sounding board" for confirming one's own opinion.  Any suggested order placements should be reviewed and reset to fit current market conditions by individual traders.

Recommendations may include trades which have already been made on the same or a previous day, otherwise the issue is placed on a "watch list." Suggested trades are based upon an approximate maximum $15,000 capitalization requirement per trade, depending upon initial contract margin requirements.  Zenith's actual trades may be larger.  $22 per round turn for futures is deducted from profit figures.   Commodity option trade recommendations are not tracked, but performance should parallel that of the underlying commodity's.

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