11/23/2019: Orange Juice Appears to Violate Supply/Demand Rules |
The Orange Juice market in Florida is depressed largely because of a disease
imported from China which is killing off the orange groves. However, a
supply of oranges in inventory is building up in Florida because many
processors to turn oranges into frozen concentrate (basis of futures contract)
are closing down. Demand is reduced by high costs, health issues, and
competition from imports. It is difficult to understand why diminishing
supply or oranges from groves would cause an inventory buildup, but the
answer appears to be with processors who can't move the stuff at higher
retail prices. This seems to be one instance where futures prices and
wholesale costs are moving opposite to retail prices.
Our recent article on Orange Juice is in the Archives Section below.
12-08-2019: Some Commodities We Haven't Currently Reviewed |
How do we pick a commodity for review? Here are technical strength or weakness ratings for 12/06//2019 on the other major commodities not being currently being reviewed or traded on this site. One way to choose a commodity for review is to look at the previous activity and compare it to the present one, to see if there were any dramatic changes. Commodities currently under review on our list of about 18 on this site are not shown below. It's just a way of keeping track of what else is going on with other commodities.
Current Actvity:
Previous Activitiy:
The ratings are good only for date shown, and rapidly change each day, whereas we review the list only periodically. Once a commodity appears on our list of articles and is being currently traded, we consider its long-term direction has been established and trade consistently from that direction wtihout worrying about day-to-day changes. However, that procedure is not the one we use in swing trading stocks.
11-23-2019: January Orange Juice: Supply/Demand Issues
10-30-2019: December Ethanol: Uncertainty Faces Use
10-25-2019: December Silver: Bank Illiquidity Supports Precious Metals
10-21-2019: December British Pound: Chaos in Parliament
10-14-2019: December Cocoa: Multinationals Urged to Susport Sustainability
10-10-2019: November Rough Rice: Relatively Flat Trade
10-01-2019: November Gasoline:: Saudi Production Limited Impact
09-12-2019: December S&P 500 Index: How Is the Little Guy Benefitted?
08-26-2019: October Milk, Class III: Dairy Farms Driven Out of Business
08-20-2019: December Live Cattle: Plant Fire Causes Backlog
08-14-2019: December Chicago Wheat: Too Much Around
08-11-2019: December Soybean Oil: China Allowed to Dominate Market
08-03-2019: December Cotton: New Tariffs Sink Agricultural Economy
07-29-2019: September Copper: Renewable Energy Sources Demand Copper
07-25-2019: October World Sugar: Supplies Plentiful
07-17-2019: September Lumber: Canadian Mill Curtailment
07-10-2019: September Australian Dollar: Depending Upon U.S. Federal Reserve Decisioins
07-03-2019: August Feeder Cattle: Feed Costs Moderate
Performance |
Updated once a week (usually on Saturdays) unless the preceding week had less than five trading days.
The S&P 500 Idx E-Mini contract involved a roll forward from December to March, the Orange Juice contract from November to March and the Silver contract from December to March.
Previously-reported initial prices were adjusted to reflect this.
# Commodity BS Buy Sell Last Gain Intended Rough Group (Loss) Risk Percent 4 Jan Ethanol C 135.60 148.70 137.50 $ 10,360 14,640 11.7% Energies 10 Mar Australian Dollr S 68.51 68.54 $ -600 14,900 11.9% Currency 26 Mar Soybean Oil C 30.53 31.44 31.50 $ 13,416 14,976 17.9% Grains 5 Mar British Pound C 129.37 131.54 131.79 $ 6,631 14,969 11.9% Currency 7 Mar Cocoa L 25.39 26.07 $ 4,550 14,980 14.0% Softs 5 Mar Cotton #2 S 66.05 66.00 $ -25 14,975 6.0% Cotton 25 Jan Milk Cl.III S 18.95 18.62 $ 15,750 14,500 5.8% Dairy 2 Mar S & P 500 E-Mini C 314.78 307.10 314.80 $ -7,740 7,680 3.1% Stock Id 4 Jan Feeder Cattle C 140.18 143.13 141.55 $ 5,780 14,980 11.9% Meats 3 Mar Hi Grade Copper C 262.40 274.20 272.50 $ 8,760 14,925 5.9% Copper 4 Jan Lumber C 394.70 419.80 406.10 $ 10,924 14,872 5.9% Lumber 9 Feb Live Cattle C 124.25 126.60 124.97 $ 8,190 14,976 11.9% Meats 10 Mar Orange Juice C 101.55 97.90 98.20 $ -5,775 5,475 14.0% Softs 2 Feb Gasoline C 156.90 169.70 165.10 $ 10,692 14,784 11.7% Energies 18 Jan Rough Rice C 121.45 122.01 123.10 $ 1,476 14,940 17.9% Grains 14 Mar Sugar #11 World C 12.71 12.86 13.18 $ 1,932 14,739 14.0% Softs 2 Mar Silver Mini L 16.65 16.60 $ -310 14,750 5.9% Prec Met 9 Mar Chicago Wheat C 509.60 517.40 524.50 $ 3,240 14,940 17.9% Grains Adjustment for Open Positions: -($ 19,365) Prior to 11/25: Other Gains/-Losses This Reporting Period: $ 480,145 *** *** For Contracts Closed or Rolled Forward __________ Total for all Trades: $ 548,031
Trading in commodities involves substantial risk and past performance is no guarantee of future profits. Zenith does not sell advice nor does it manage discretionary accounts other than its own. Readers should be aware of the vested interest that all traders/brokers have in encouraging other traders to make the same transactions. No one should follow investment advice blindly. This web site should be used only as a "sounding board" for confirming one's own opinion. Any suggested order placements should be reviewed and reset to fit current market conditions by individual traders.Recommendations may include trades which have already been made on the same or a previous day, otherwise the issue is placed on a "watch list." Suggested trades are based upon an approximate maximum $15,000 capitalization requirement per trade, depending upon initial contract margin requirements. Zenith's actual trades may be larger. $22 per round turn for futures is deducted from profit figures. Commodity option trade recommendations are not tracked, but performance should parallel that of the underlying commodity's.