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03-24-2019: More and More Analysts Predict an Imminent Recession

We kept hearing news toward the end of last year about over-valuation in the market place, overbought stocks, and recession, recession, recession coming by 2019. Markets continued their relentless bull enthusiasm confounding analysts who could not quite manage the "timing." But the latest "scare" is the "inverted yield curve." It is one of the most reliable indicators of a forthcoming recession. Bond prices go opposite to interest rates, so as interest rates were forecasted to go higher, bond prices went lower, but not recently. The Federal Reserve sees the recession threat and will probably not hike rates further in 2019. So, the call of World War II echoes today, "Buy bonds today!" 

Our recent article on Treasury Bonds is in the Archives Section below.

03-22-2019: Some Commodities We Haven't Currently Reviewed

How do we pick a commodity for review? Here are technical strength or weakness ratings for 03/21 on the other major commodities not being currently being reviewed or traded on this site. One way to choose a commodity for review is to look at the previous activity and compare it to the present one, to see if there were any dramatic changes. Commodities currently under review on our list of about 18 on this site are not shown below. It's just a way of keeping track of what else is going on with other commodities.


Current Actvity:

Treasury Notes      100
Feeder Cattle       100
Eurodollars         100
NASDAQ 100 Index     96
Gasoline             88
Ethanol              88
Palladium            72
Rough Rice           72
Cotton               64
Crude Oil            64
Platinum             64
Orange Juice         64
Milk Cl III          64
Soybean Meal         40
Swiss Franc           8
________________________

Soybean Oil         -64
Sugar #11           -40
Euro Currency       -40
Australian Dollar   -40
Lumber              -24
Soybeans            -24
Oats                 -8


Previous Activity:

NASDAQ 100 Index     96
Palladium            88
Treasury Notes       88
Gasoline             80
Eurodollars          80
Treasury Bonds       64
Ethanol              56
Lumber               48
Orange Juice         32
Platinum             24
Milk Cl III           8
Cotton                8
Rough Rice            0
________________________

Soybean Meal        -80
Swiss Franc         -72
Soybeans            -72
Australian Dollar   -72
Euro Currency       -56
Sugar #11           -56
Oats                -32
Soybean Oil         -24
Feeder Cattle       -24
The ratings are good only for date shown, and rapidly change each day, whereas we review the list only periodically. Once a commodity appears on our list of articles and is being currently traded, we consider its long-term direction has been established and trade consistently from that direction wtihout worrying about day-to-day changes. However, that procedure is not the one we use in swing trading stocks.

Archive List

03-24-2019: June Treasury Bonds: Inverted Yield Curve

03-16-2019: April Milk Class III: Below Cost of Production

03-12-2019: May Corn: Intense Foreign Competition

03-07-2019: May Chicago Wheat: Lack of Exports Due to Competition

02-26-2019: July Coffee: Below Cost of Production

02-20-2019: April Heating Oil: Not Correlating Well with Gasoline

02-13-2019: May Copper: Not If but When Price Will Rise

02-06-2019: March S&P 500 Index: Plunge Fears Fade

02-01-2019: April Live Cattle: Freezing Weather in the Plains States

01-26-2019: March British Pound: Deal or No Deal?

01-17-2019: June Gold: Rally Suspect

01-92-2019: March Silver: On Tailwind of Gold

01-02-2019: March Cocoa: Weather and Demand Factors Compete

12-13-2018: March U.S. Dollar Index: Troubles in Other Countries

12-09-2018: March Canadian Doillar: Oil Prices and Interest Rates

12-03-2018: April Natural Gas: Fewer Degree Days, Lesser Storage

11-27-2018: March Mexican Peso: Border Crisis

11-18-2018: March Kansas Wheat: Adequate Global Supply

11-09-2018: December Japanese Yen: Weak Economy



Performance

Updated once a week (usually on Saturdays) unless the preceding week had less than five trading days.
The Lean Hogs trade involved a contract roll forward from February to April, which is why initial price has been adjusted from previously reported one.

All Commodities Trades: 01/02/2019 - 03/23/2019


 # Commodity           BS    Buy   Sell   Last    Gain Intended  Rough   Group
                                                 (Loss)    Risk Percent

 5 Jun British Pound    C 131.12 133.87 132.63 $  8,444  14,969  23.8% Currency
21 May Corn             C 369.30 372.30 378.20 $  2,520  14,910  17.6% Grains  
 7 Jul Cocoa            L  21.37         21.70 $  2,100  14,980  11.7% Softs   
11 Jun Canadian Dollar  C  74.90  75.13  74.70 $  2,200  14,850  23.8% Currency
41 Apr Milk Cl.III      C  14.81  15.43  15.29 $ 49,610  14,760   5.8% Dairy   
 8 Jun U.S.Dollar Index C  96.19  95.17  96.15 $ -8,400   8,160  23.8% Currency
 4 Jun S & P 500 E-Mini L 281.64        281.08 $ -1,240  14,980   5.9% Stock Id
 4 Jun Gold             S        132.09 131.87 $    760  14,920  11.7% Prec Met
 5 May Hi Grade Copper  L 285.10        284.20 $ -1,275  15,000   5.9% Copper  
 6 May Heating Oil #2   L 194.80        196.70 $  4,608  14,868   5.8% Energies
 6 Jun Japanese Yen     S         91.37  91.46 $   -855  14,925  23.8% Currency
 5 Jul Coffee "C"       C  96.80 100.80  96.70 $  7,350  14,813  11.7% Softs   
10 May Kansas Wheat     C 435.30 445.00 445.00 $  4,550  14,950  17.6% Grains  
 9 Apr Live Cattle      S        129.93 129.73 $    450  14,940   5.9% Meats   
 9 May Natural Gas Mini C  27.41  28.53  27.67 $  2,250  14,963   5.9% Nat Gas 
11 Jun Mexican Peso 500 C 526.00 511.90 517.00 $ -8,085   7,755  23.8% Currency
 3 May Silver Mini      C  15.20  15.59  15.41 $  2,835  14,925  11.7% Prec Met
10 May Chicago Wheat    C 455.70 461.10 466.00 $  2,400  14,950  17.6% Grains  

            Adjustment for Open Positions: -($    4,548)

Prior to 3/18:
Other Gains/-Losses This Reporting Period:   $  619,413  ***
 ***  For Contracts Closed or Rolled Forward  __________
 
Total for all Trades:                        $  685,087

Stocks Site.

Music of Francis Poulenc

Trading in commodities involves substantial risk and past performance is no guarantee of future profits.  Zenith does not sell advice nor does it manage discretionary accounts other than its own. Readers should be aware of the vested interest that all traders/brokers have in encouraging other traders to make the same transactions.  No one should follow investment advice blindly.  This web site should be used only as a "sounding board" for confirming one's own opinion.  Any suggested order placements should be reviewed and reset to fit current market conditions by individual traders.

Recommendations may include trades which have already been made on the same or a previous day, otherwise the issue is placed on a "watch list." Suggested trades are based upon an approximate maximum $15,000 capitalization requirement per trade, depending upon initial contract margin requirements.  Zenith's actual trades may be larger.  $22 per round turn for futures is deducted from profit figures.   Commodity option trade recommendations are not tracked, but performance should parallel that of the underlying commodity's.

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