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10/21/2019: Which Way the Pound?

The British Pound is definitely a "story" commodity, and the "story" on it is how the United Kingdom will manage its way out of the European Common Union. It is one of the most, if not THE most volatile commodities. It has been moving so fast that there is a large gap between available calls and puts in Forex options on the Pound making it diffiuclt to manage risk. The British Government seems in chaos, divided as it were between those who want another referendum on getting out of the European Common Union and those who want to go through with the previous vote results. The chaos and indecision has hurt the British economy and caused the Pound to collapse, almost opposite to the results of chaos and division in the United States.

It seems anyone's guess on where the Pound will go next, and major banks are as divided as anyone else on their forecasts. Bank of America says by all means buy the Pound, while Barclays wants to dump it. News is unfolding even as this article is being written but it appears that Prime Minister Johnson may face a recall and has lost a lot of leverage in Pariliament where he had hoped to get the exit from the ECU over with quickly so the uncertainty could be removed from the British economy and they could "get going" again. That doesn't appear to be happening any time soon, and a major sticking point is the Republic of Ireland definitelystaying in the ECU but Northern Ireland possibly leaving with Britain which would cause a border crisis, customs, trade issues, and no longer free passage without a passport which is enjoyed there now. But if exception is made for Northern Ireland, then what about Scotland where the majority also seems to wish to stay in the ECU?

Our recent article on the British Pound is in the Archives Section below.

10-22-2019: Some Commodities We Haven't Currently Reviewed

How do we pick a commodity for review? Here are technical strength or weakness ratings for 10/22//2019 on the other major commodities not being currently being reviewed or traded on this site. One way to choose a commodity for review is to look at the previous activity and compare it to the present one, to see if there were any dramatic changes. Commodities currently under review on our list of about 18 on this site are not shown below. It's just a way of keeping track of what else is going on with other commodities.


Current Actvity:                                                                                                    Previous Activitiy:

The ratings are good only for date shown, and rapidly change each day, whereas we review the list only periodically. Once a commodity appears on our list of articles and is being currently traded, we consider its long-term direction has been established and trade consistently from that direction wtihout worrying about day-to-day changes. However, that procedure is not the one we use in swing trading stocks.

Archive List

10-21-2019: December British Pound: Chaos in Parliament

10-14-2019: December Cocoa: Multinationals Urged to Susport Sustainability

10-10-2019: November Rough Rice: Relatively Flat Trade

10-01-2019: November Gasoline:: Saudi Production Limited Impact

09-12-2019: December S&P 500 Index: How Is the Little Guy Benefitted?

08-26-2019: October Milk, Class III: Dairy Farms Driven Out of Business

08-20-2019: December Live Cattle: Plant Fire Causes Backlog

08-14-2019: December Chicago Wheat: Too Much Around

08-11-2019: December Soybean Oil: China Allowed to Dominate Market

08-03-2019: December Cotton: New Tariffs Sink Agricultural Economy

07-29-2019: September Copper: Renewable Energy Sources Demand Copper

07-25-2019: October World Sugar: Supplies Plentiful

07-17-2019: September Lumber: Canadian Mill Curtailment

07-10-2019: September Australian Dollar: Depending Upon U.S. Federal Reserve Decisioins

07-03-2019: August Feeder Cattle: Feed Costs Moderate

06-23-2019: September U.S. Dollar Index: Interest Rate Cut Rumors

06-17-2019: August Gold: Mideast Crises, Interest Rates and National Debt Force Gold Up

06-09-2019: September Canadian Dollar: Trade Wars and Interest Rates

06-03-2019: August Crude Oil: Deflationary Pressures

05-15-2019: August Lean Hogs: African Swine Fever Vs. Trump Trade Mess



Performance

Updated once a week (usually on Saturdays) unless the preceding week had less than five trading days.

All Commodities Trades: 09/30/2019 - 10/19/2019

 # Commodity           BS    Buy   Sell   Last    Gain Intended  Rough   Group
                                                 (Loss)    Risk Percent

10 Dec Australian Dollr C  67.62  67.97  68.64 $  3,200  14,900  15.8% Currency
26 Dec Soybean Oil      C  29.94  30.64  30.36 $ 10,140  14,976  15.8% Grains  
 7 Dec Cocoa            C  24.50  25.38  24.86 $  5,950  14,980  10.5% Softs   
13 Dec Canadian Dollar  C  75.77  75.95  76.24 $  1,950  14,950  15.8% Currency
 4 Nov Crude Oil        C  52.60  54.71  53.78 $  8,320  14,960  10.5% Energies
 5 Dec Cotton #2        C  61.97  65.59  65.16 $  8,900  14,975   5.3% Cotton  
25 Nov Milk Cl.III      C  18.50  18.78  18.56 $ 13,250  14,500   5.1% Dairy   
 8 Dec U.S.Dollar Index C  97.30  97.99  97.01 $  5,280  14,880  15.8% Currency
 2 Dec S & P 500 E-Mini C 296.56 299.60 298.82 $  2,980  14,990   5.3% Stock Id
 4 Dec Gold             C 148.40 149.69 149.41 $  5,040  14,960   5.3% Prec Met
 4 Jan Feeder Cattle    L 139.07        139.45 $    640  14,980  15.9% Meats   
 5 Dec Lean Hogs        C  66.38  70.52  67.95 $  8,130  14,980  15.9% Meats   
 3 Dec Hi Grade Copper  C 258.40 263.50 263.60 $  3,735  14,925   5.3% Copper  
 4 Nov Lumber           C 369.30 372.40 385.60 $  1,244  14,872   5.3% Lumber  
 9 Dec Live Cattle      C 112.55 113.97 113.62 $  4,842  14,976  15.9% Meats   
 2 Nov Gasoline         C 158.60 164.10 162.30 $  4,560  14,700  10.5% Energies
18 Nov Rough Rice       C 118.72 121.21 119.10 $  8,424  14,940  15.8% Grains  
14 Mar Sugar #11 World  C  12.25  12.57  12.32 $  4,598  14,739  10.5% Softs   
 9 Dec Chicago Wheat    C 506.30 510.70 532.20 $  1,710  14,895  15.8% Grains  

            Adjustment for Open Positions: -($      640)

Prior to 10/14:
Other Gains/-Losses This Reporting Period:   $  148,252  ***
 ***  For Contracts Closed or Rolled Forward  __________
 
Total for all Trades:                        $  250,505

Stocks Site.

Music of Francis Poulenc

Trading in commodities involves substantial risk and past performance is no guarantee of future profits.  Zenith does not sell advice nor does it manage discretionary accounts other than its own. Readers should be aware of the vested interest that all traders/brokers have in encouraging other traders to make the same transactions.  No one should follow investment advice blindly.  This web site should be used only as a "sounding board" for confirming one's own opinion.  Any suggested order placements should be reviewed and reset to fit current market conditions by individual traders.

Recommendations may include trades which have already been made on the same or a previous day, otherwise the issue is placed on a "watch list." Suggested trades are based upon an approximate maximum $15,000 capitalization requirement per trade, depending upon initial contract margin requirements.  Zenith's actual trades may be larger.  $22 per round turn for futures is deducted from profit figures.   Commodity option trade recommendations are not tracked, but performance should parallel that of the underlying commodity's.

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