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05-15-2019: Hog Futures Very Volatile After Trade / Swine Fever Issues

Until recently, optimism over Trump Administration's ability to reach a trade agreement with China after totally messing things up for U.S. farmers, consumers, and everyone else, caused hog futures to fly sky high on African Swine Fever problems in China and Asia. Getting rid of diseased hogs to prevent spread forced China to import lots of pork. But, not from the U.S., apparently, at least not in the future, as the Trump trade war heats up further with no end in sight. The optimism over the fever issue gave way to pessimism about our government's ability to find markets overseas for American farmers. which could leave us with a glut of pork.

Our recent article on Lean Hogs is in the Archives Section below.

05-11-2019: Some Commodities We Haven't Currently Reviewed

How do we pick a commodity for review? Here are technical strength or weakness ratings for 05//11 on the other major commodities not being currently being reviewed or traded on this site. One way to choose a commodity for review is to look at the previous activity and compare it to the present one, to see if there were any dramatic changes. Commodities currently under review on our list of about 18 on this site are not shown below. It's just a way of keeping track of what else is going on with other commodities.

The ratings are good only for date shown, and rapidly change each day, whereas we review the list only periodically. Once a commodity appears on our list of articles and is being currently traded, we consider its long-term direction has been established and trade consistently from that direction wtihout worrying about day-to-day changes. However, that procedure is not the one we use in swing trading stocks.

Archive List

05-15-2019: August Lean Hogs: African Swine Fever Vs. Trump Trade Mess

05-05-2019: June Ethanol: E15 Mandates Help

04-30-2019: July Soybeans: Flooding Causes Planting Intentions Switch

04-24-2019: June Swiss Franc: Negative Interest Rates

04-19-2019: June Gasoline: California Read Misleading

04-16-2019: July Platinum: Catalytic Converters Use Determines Demand

04-07-2019: May Oats: Cancer Concerns Remain

04-01-2019: June Euro Currency: Weakened by both Brexit & Italy

03-24-2019: June Treasury Bonds: Inverted Yield Curve

03-16-2019: April Milk Class III: Below Cost of Production

03-12-2019: May Corn: Intense Foreign Competition

03-07-2019: May Chicago Wheat: Lack of Exports Due to Competition

02-26-2019: July Coffee: Below Cost of Production

02-20-2019: April Heating Oil: Not Correlating Well with Gasoline

02-13-2019: May Copper: Not If but When Price Will Rise

02-06-2019: March S&P 500 Index: Plunge Fears Fade

02-01-2019: April Live Cattle: Freezing Weather in the Plains States

01-26-2019: March British Pound: Deal or No Deal?

01-17-2019: June Gold: Rally Suspect


Updated once a week (usually on Saturdays) unless the preceding week had less than five trading days.

All Commodities Trades: 04/01/2019 - 05/18/2019

 # Commodity           BS    Buy   Sell   Last    Gain Intended  Rough   Group
                                                 (Loss)    Risk Percent

 9 Jun Ethanol          C 128.60 136.70 136.40 $ 20,871  14,877  15.8% Energies
 5 Jun British Pound    C 127.84 130.12 127.44 $  6,975  14,969  15.8% Currency
21 Jul Corn             S        383.20 383.20 $   -630  14,805  21.0% Grains  
41 Jun Milk Cl.III      C  16.35  16.42  16.45 $  4,510  14,760   5.2% Dairy   
 4 Jun S & P 500 E-Mini C 281.10 288.24 286.20 $ 14,160  14,980   5.3% Stock Id
 5 Jun Euro Currency    C 112.22 112.51 111.86 $  1,663  14,938  15.8% Currency
 4 Jun Gold             C 127.97 128.76 127.57 $  3,040  14,920  10.5% Prec Met
 5 Aug Lean Hogs        S         93.67  93.95 $   -710  14,980  10.6% Meats   
 5 Jul Hi Grade Copper  C 274.20 276.80 273.90 $  3,100  14,875   5.3% Copper  
 6 Jul Heating Oil #2   C 203.30 212.90 209.60 $ 24,012  14,868  15.8% Energies
 5 Jul Coffee "C"       C  88.80  91.00  89.00 $  3,975  14,813   5.2% Softs   
 9 Aug Live Cattle      S        109.34 108.93 $  1,206  14,940  10.6% Meats   
19 Jul Oats             C 279.20 297.00 294.00 $ 16,340  14,915  21.0% Grains  
 9 Jul Platinum         C  82.15  86.46  82.03 $ 19,125  14,940  10.5% Prec Met
 3 Jul Gasoline         C 190.90 204.20 201.80 $ 16,668  14,868  15.8% Energies
 7 Jul Soybeans         S        844.80 821.80 $  7,840  14,945  21.0% Grains  
 5 Jun Swiss Franc      C  99.43  99.47  99.17 $    100  14,938  15.8% Currency
 5 Jun Treasury Bonds   C 149.28 149.71 149.69 $  2,000  14,950   5.3% Finance 
10 Jul Chicago Wheat    S        471.30 465.00 $  2,850  14,950  21.0% Grains  

            Adjustment for Open Positions: -($   10,556)

Prior to 5/13:
Other Gains/-Losses This Reporting Period:   $  466,942  ***
 ***  For Contracts Closed or Rolled Forward  __________
Total for all Trades:                        $  603,481

Stocks Site.

Music of Francis Poulenc

Trading in commodities involves substantial risk and past performance is no guarantee of future profits.  Zenith does not sell advice nor does it manage discretionary accounts other than its own. Readers should be aware of the vested interest that all traders/brokers have in encouraging other traders to make the same transactions.  No one should follow investment advice blindly.  This web site should be used only as a "sounding board" for confirming one's own opinion.  Any suggested order placements should be reviewed and reset to fit current market conditions by individual traders.

Recommendations may include trades which have already been made on the same or a previous day, otherwise the issue is placed on a "watch list." Suggested trades are based upon an approximate maximum $15,000 capitalization requirement per trade, depending upon initial contract margin requirements.  Zenith's actual trades may be larger.  $22 per round turn for futures is deducted from profit figures.   Commodity option trade recommendations are not tracked, but performance should parallel that of the underlying commodity's.

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