01-12-2020: Target Corporation (TGT): Earnings Reports Impact

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Target Corporation

Target Corporation (TGT) is associated with former Dayton-Hudson department stores. The history of that company goes back over a century. In 2000, Dayton-Hudson renamed itself Target Corporation and in 2004 divested itself of its department stores, selling them to May Co. May Co. itself was acquired later by Federated Department Stores. Target is more in the class of "discount" department stores along with the likes of one of its main competitors, Wal-Mart. Target has been steadily taking market share away from stores like Kohl's in the clothing business.

For a while, Target also owned the Mervyns chain which but divested itself of that. Mervyns may soon close its doors.

The on-going replacement of larger more expensive department stores by discount stores slowly drove some larger chains out of business, but now the discount stores face a new challenge from the likes of Amazon, and have begun to shift to on-line sales. The problem with on-line sales is that the customer cannot feel, touch the items he buys, but our experience with Target is that these items can be delivered to a local store for pickup free of shipping charges, and easily returned if not as expected. So Target continually is ramping up its on-line sales.

Target stock leads its competitors in advancing over the last few years. It appears to be a "buy and hold" stock. It pays slightly more than a 2% dividend. Dayton-Hudson bonds are rated "A" investment grade and surprisingly are paying north of 4% interest if one can obtain them.

Target has an acceptable Zenith Index and financial ratios, indicating good management and shareholder concern. It has a CEO Letter to shareholders. Institutions however are net sellers because Target stock has reached great heights over the years without many corrections and now looks a bit "toppy." Risks include the shift to on-line shopping producing a competitive landscape where margins are strained by increasing selling, general, and administrative expenses. Macroeconomic sentiment is another risk as customers consider things like fuel costs, credit availability, employment levels and household debt levels.

Most researchers are very positive on the stock which has been rising steadily, but some of the big ones are showing surprising reluctance or neutrality, such as Standard & Poor's, Jefferson, or Value Engine.

Target is huge with $77 billion in annual sales. It has stores in every state. A company this large is expected to have solid financials and low risk. One risk is trade relations that could impact suppliers and competitive prices, as well as availability of certain merchandise originating from outside the U.S.

The way we view the Target stock chart is sort of like a series of "Darvas boxes" where the stock occasionally makes quantum jumps on high volume without much warning, then consolidates before moving higher to the next box, currently around $120-$130/share. These jumps seem to coincide with 3-month patterns of earnings reports. The next one is not due until March 3, 2020. Meanwhile, it might be wise to wait to see which way the stock breaks from its current "box." Holiday sales were reported in various ways by retailers, some grim, others optimistic.



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Zenith Index

Under current market conditions, a Zenith Index Score of 1.20 or above is required for a positive rating on this factor. 1.21 -1.30 is considered acceptable, 1.30-1.40 is considered strong and
> 1.40 is considered exceptionally strong. Accounting statements in this section often contain mistakes, especially in earlier years' totals, but data is deemed sufficient for us to give a rating. More accurate financial statements follow in the next section.

Target Corporation (TGT)                                  Exchange: NYSE
1000 Nicollet Mall
Minneapolis, MN 55403            Sector: Consumer Defensive
United States                    Industry: Discount Stores

Target Corporation operates as a general merchandise retailer in the
United States. The company offers beauty and household essentials; food
assortments, including perishables, dry grocery, dairy, and frozen
items; and apparel, accessories, home d+¬cor products, electronics, toys,
seasonal offerings, and other merchandise. The company also provides
in-store amenities, such as Target Caf+¬, Target Optical, Starbucks, and
other food service offerings. It sells its products through its stores;
and digital channels, including Target.com. As of September 19, 2019,
the company operated approximately 1,800 stores. Target Corporation was
founded in 1902 and is headquartered in Minneapolis, Minnesota.

Last Trade: 123.50                           52-Week Range: 130.24 -  67.17
Employees: 360,000                           Avg.Volume:   4,714,349 Shares

Corporate Governance:
Pillar scores are Audit: 1; Board: 3; Shareholder Rights: 1; Compensation: 3.
         (A lower number means less governance risk.)

EPS:  6.25    Dividend Amount: $ 2.64          Yield:  2.14%
             Ex-Dividend Date: Nov 19, 2019    Payout Ratio:  41.41

Key Statistics:

    Trailing P/E:  19.94              Forward P/E (est.):  17.99
                                           Target Price: 136.33

Qrtly Stock Price Growth (yoy):  80.85%               Beta:   0.56
Qrtly S&P Index   Growth (yoy):   4.70%        Short Ratio:   2.06%
    Qrtly Revenue Growth (yoy):  52.00%         Shares Out:  506740000
   Qrtly Earnings Growth (yoy):  14.80%

          Book Value:  22.79                    Debt/Equity: 121.80%
    Price/Book Value:   5.47        Operating Profit Margin:   5.98%
         Price/Sales:   0.81                  Profit Margin:   4.18%
         Market Cap:  63,000,000,000       Return on Equity:  28.59%
    Enterprise Value:  75,680,000,000      Return on Assets:   6.65%

    Operating Cash Flow:      5,973,000
         Free Cash Flow:     -1,087,000



Annual Income Statement:                          (All numbers in thousands)
  Period Ending                             1/30/2019   1/30/2018   1/30/2017

  Total Revenue                             75,356,000  72,714,000  69,495,000
  Cost of Revenue                           53,299,000  51,125,000  48,872,000
  Gross Profit                              22,057,000  21,589,000  20,623,000

Operating Expenses:
  Research & Development                             0           0           0
  Selling, General & Administrative         15,723,000  15,140,000  13,356,000
  Total Operating Expenses                  17,947,000  17,365,000  15,654,000

Operating Income or Loss                     4,110,000   4,224,000   4,969,000

Income from Continuing Operations:
  Total Other Income/Expenses Net               27,000      59,000           0
  Interest Expense                             461,000     666,000   1,004,000
  Income Before Taxes                        3,676,000   3,630,000   3,965,000
  Income Tax Expense                           746,000     722,000   1,296,000

Net Income from Continuing Op.s              2,930,000   2,908,000   2,669,000

Non-recurring Events:
  Extraordinary Items                           -7,000      -6,000     -68,000
  Net Income                                 2,937,000   2,914,000   2,737,000

Net Income Avail to Common Shares            2,937,000   2,914,000   2,737,000



Annual Cash Flow Statement:                   (All numbers in thousands)
  Period Ending                         1/30/2019     1/30/2018     1/30/2017

  Net Income                             2,930,000     2,908,000     2,669,000

Operating Activities:
  Depreciation                           2,474,000     2,445,000     2,298,000
  Changes in Accounts Recv'bls                   0             0             0
  Changes in Liabilities                 2,457,000     4,390,000     3,889,000
  Changes in Inventories                  -900,000      -348,000       293,000
  Changes in other Oper'g Acts              17,000     1,241,000      -214,000

Total Cash Flow f Operations             5,973,000     6,923,000     5,436,000

Investing Activities:
  Capital Exenditures                   -3,516,000    -2,533,000    -1,547,000
  Investments                                    0      -518,000             0
  Other Cash Flows fr Investing                  0       -55,000        28,000

Total Cash Flows from Investing         -3,416,000    -3,075,000    -1,473,000

Financing Activities:
  Dividends Paid                        -1,335,000    -1,338,000    -1,348,000
  Sale of Purchase of Stock             -2,124,000    -2,124,000    -2,124,000
  Other Cash Flows fr Financing                  0             0        28,000

Total Cash Flows from Financing         -3,644,000    -3,717,000    -5,497,000

Change in Cash & Cash Equiv.            -1,087,000       131,000    -1,534,000



Annual Balance Sheets:                              (All Numbers in Thousands)
  Period Ending                          1/30/2019     1/30/2018     1/30/2017
Current Assets:
  Cash & Cash Equivalents                 2,643,000     2,512,000     4,046,000
  Short Term Investments                          0     1,110,000             0
  Net Receivables                           416,000             0             0
  Inventory                               8,597,000     8,309,000     8,601,000
  Other Current Assets                    1,300,000     1,100,000     1,161,000
  Total Current Assets                   12,540,000    11,990,000    14,130,000

  Long-Term Investments                  44,818,000    42,071,000    41,463,000
  Property, Plant & Equipt               26,420,000    24,658,000    25,217,000
  Goodwill                                  630,000       133,000       133,000
  Intangible Assets                         152,000       126,000       144,000
  Other Assets                            1,343,000       783,000       915,000

Total Assets                             40,303,000    37,431,000    40,262,000

Current Liabilities:
  Accounts Payable                        8,677,000     7,252,000     7,418,000
  Current Portion LT Debt                 4,094,000     3,737,000     4,236,000
  Other Current Liabilities                 787,000         1,000       153,000
  Total Current Liabilities              13,052,000    12,708,000     12,622,000

  Long Term Debt                         11,117,000    11,031,000    11,945,000
  Other Liabilities                       1,866,000     1,860,000     1,897,000

Total Liabilities                        28,652,000    26,478,000    27,305,000

Stockholder Equity:
  Common Stock                               45,000        46,000        50,000
  Retained Earnings                       6,495,000     5,884,000     8,188,000
  Capital Surplus                          -747,000      -638,000      -629,000
  Total Stockholder Equity               11,651,000    10,953,000    12,957,000


Target Corporation (TGT)                    [Indices near +3.0, near zero,
                                            or < zero bear special attention.]
P/E Ratio Tests:
P/E Ratio < 28?            1.4042          P/E Ratio > 5?             1.0000
P/E Ratio Vs Growth Rate:  3.0000          Forward P/E Ratio < 28?    1.5564
Price/Sales Ratio < 2.3?   2.8395          Inventory/Sales < 5%?      0.4383
Sales < $1 Billion?        0.0133          Operating Margin < 7.5%?   1.2542

Balance Sheet Tests:
Debt/Equity < 0.40?        0.3284          Long-Term Debt Service:    1.0480
LTD Being Reduced?         0.0000          Short-Term Debt Service:   0.0000
Current Ratio > 2?         0.4804          Working Capital >= 1.5?    1.5821
Leverage Ratio < 20%?      0.2256          Debt/Assets < 1?           3.0000
Quick Ratio > 1?           3.0000          Inventory Turnover > 1?    0.4790
Share Equity Increase:     1.9091          Market Cap.< 1.5 Billion?  0.0238
                                           Intangibles < 3% Assets?   1.5462
Income Tests:
Profit Margin < 7.5%?      0.5573          EPS Annual Growth > 10%?   0.0992
Dividend Yield > 2.0%?     0.9346          EPS 3-yr Growth > 15?      0.1398
Enterprise Value/Revenue   0.8361          EPS Growth Consistent?     2.0000
Enterprise Value/EBITDA:   3.0000          Collection < 45 days?      3.0000
EPS Qrtly Growth > 10%?    0.0068          Gross Pft/Cur. LTD > 1?    3.0000
                                           Borrowing Int. Rate < 6%?  1.4469
Stock Performance Tests:
Volatility > 25%?          1.9370          % Held by Insiders < 5%?   3.0000
Beta > 1.25?               0.4480          % Held by Institut. < 50?  0.5907
50 Da MA > 200 Da MA?      0.4878          % Held by Institut. > 30?  2.8217
52-Wk Change vs. S&P 500:  1.5548          Short Ratio > 5?           0.4120
Price/Book Value < 3?      3.0000          Short % of Float > 20?     0.1255
Return on Assets > 17%?    0.3912          Average Volume > 100,000?  3.0000

Cash Flow Tests:
Oper. C.F. > Lever'd C.F: -3.0000          Positive Free Cash Flow?  -1.0000
Positive Oper. Cash Flow?  3.0000          Price to C.F.Ratio < 14?:  2.8962
                                           Cash Flow / Assets > 10%?  3.0000

TGT    Target Corporation                  Overall Zenith Index:      1.2826


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Financial Statements

TARGET CORP  (TGT)                          INCOME STATEMENT

Fiscal year ends in January. USD in thousands        2015-01         2016-01         2017-01         2018-01         2019-01             TTM           

Revenue                                           72,618,000      73,785,000      69,495,000      71,879,000      75,356,000      77,690,000
Cost of revenue                                   51,278,000      51,997,000      48,872,000      51,125,000      53,299,000      54,707,000
Gross profit                                      21,340,000      21,788,000      20,623,000      20,754,000      22,057,000      22,983,000


Operating expenses
Sales, General and administrative                 14,676,000      14,665,000      13,356,000      14,248,000      15,723,000      16,104,000
Other operating expenses                           2,129,000       2,213,000       2,298,000       2,194,000       2,224,000       2,302,000
Total operating expenses                          16,805,000      16,878,000      15,654,000      16,442,000      17,947,000      18,406,000

Operating income                                   4,535,000       4,910,000       4,969,000       4,312,000       4,110,000       4,577,000
Other income (expense)                              -882,000          13,000      -1,004,000        -666,000        -434,000        -424,000
Income before taxes                                3,653,000       4,923,000       3,965,000       3,646,000       3,676,000       4,153,000
Provision for income taxes                         1,204,000       1,602,000       1,296,000         718,000         746,000         919,000
Net income from continuing operations              2,449,000       3,321,000       2,669,000       2,928,000       2,930,000       3,234,000
Net income from discontinuing ops                 -4,085,000          42,000          68,000           6,000           7,000          11,000
Net income                                        -1,636,000       3,363,000       2,737,000       2,934,000       2,937,000       3,245,000
Net income available to common shareholders       -1,636,000       3,363,000       2,737,000       2,934,000       2,937,000       3,245,000

Earnings per share
Basic                                                  -2.58            5.35            4.74            5.36            5.55            6.30 
Diluted                                                -2.58            5.31            4.70            5.33            5.51            6.26 

Weighted average shares outstanding
Basic                                                634,700         627,700         577,600         546,800         528,600         514,350
Diluted                                              640,100         632,900         582,500         550,300         533,200         518,650

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


TARGET CORP  (TGT)                          BALANCE SHEET

Fiscal year ends in January. USD in thousands        2015-01         2016-01         2017-01         2018-01         2019-01             

Assets

Current assets

Cash

Short-term investments                                     0               0       1,110,000               0         769,000
Total cash                                         2,210,000       4,046,000       2,512,000       2,643,000       1,556,000

Receivables                                        1,122,000         779,000         749,000         929,000       1,100,000
Inventories                                        8,790,000       8,601,000       8,309,000       8,657,000       9,497,000
Deferred income taxes                                188,000               0               0               0               0
Prepaid expenses                                     231,000         214,000         207,000         181,000         157,000
Other current assets                               1,546,000         490,000         213,000         154,000         209,000
Total current assets                              14,087,000      14,130,000      11,990,000      12,564,000      12,519,000

Non-current assets

Property, plant and equipment
Gross property, plant and equipment               41,064,000      41,463,000      42,071,000      43,199,000      46,185,000
Accumulated Depreciation                         -15,106,000     -16,246,000     -17,413,000     -18,181,000     -18,687,000
Net property, plant and equipment                 25,958,000      25,217,000      24,658,000      25,018,000      27,498,000

Equity and other investments                         322,000         308,000         345,000         383,000         380,000
Goodwill                                             147,000         133,000         133,000         630,000         633,000
Intangible assets                                    155,000         144,000         126,000         152,000          66,000
Prepaid pension benefit                                    0          66,000          43,000          46,000          11,000
Other long-term assets                               735,000         264,000         136,000         206,000         183,000
Total non-current assets                          27,317,000      26,132,000      25,441,000      26,435,000      28,771,000

Total assets                                      41,404,000      40,262,000      37,431,000      38,999,000      41,290,000 

Liabilities and stockholders' equity

Liabilities

Current liabilities
Short-term debt                                       91,000         815,000       1,718,000         270,000       1,052,000
Capital leases                                             0               0               0               0         166,000
Accounts payable                                   7,759,000       7,418,000       7,252,000       8,677,000       9,761,000
Taxes payable                                        576,000       1,076,000         729,000         696,000         601,000
Accrued liabilities                                1,009,000       1,055,000       1,035,000       1,085,000         902,000
Other current liabilities                          2,301,000       2,258,000       1,974,000       2,473,000       2,532,000
Total current liabilities                         11,736,000      12,622,000      12,708,000      13,201,000      15,014,000

Non-current liabilities
Long-term debt                                    12,705,000      11,945,000      11,031,000      11,317,000      10,223,000
Capital leases                                             0               0               0               0       2,004,000
Deferred taxes liabilities                         1,321,000         823,000         861,000         713,000         972,000
Pensions and other benefits                          151,000          54,000          46,000          41,000          40,000
Other long-term liabilities                        1,494,000       1,861,000       1,832,000       2,018,000       1,740,000
Total non-current liabilities                     15,671,000      14,683,000      13,770,000      14,089,000      14,979,000

Total liabilities                                 27,407,000      27,305,000      26,478,000      27,290,000      29,993,000 

Stockholders' equity

Common stock                                          53,000          50,000          46,000          45,000          43,000
Additional paid-in capital                         4,899,000       5,348,000       5,661,000       5,858,000       6,042,000
Retained earnings                                  9,644,000       8,188,000       5,884,000       6,553,000       6,017,000
Accumulated other comprehensive income              -599,000        -629,000        -638,000        -747,000        -805,000
Total stockholders' equity                        13,997,000      12,957,000      10,953,000      11,709,000      11,297,000
Total liabilities and stockholders' equity        41,404,000      40,262,000      37,431,000      38,999,000      41,290,000

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


TARGET CORP  (TGT)                          Statement of CASH FLOW

Fiscal year ends in January. USD in thousands        2015-01         2016-01         2017-01         2018-01         2019-01             TTM           

Cash Flows From Operating Activities
Net income                                         2,449,000       3,321,000       2,669,000       2,928,000       2,930,000       3,234,000
Depreciation & amortization                        2,129,000       2,213,000       2,298,000       2,445,000       2,474,000       2,553,000
Deferred income taxes                                  7,000        -322,000          41,000        -192,000         322,000         296,000
Stock based compensation                              71,000         115,000         113,000         112,000         132,000         142,000
Change in working capital                            150,000         445,000        -214,000       1,241,000          17,000         256,000
Inventory                                           -512,000        -316,000         293,000        -348,000        -900,000         997,000
Accounts payable                                           0               0               0       1,307,000       1,127,000        -698,000
Accrued liabilities                                  777,000         534,000        -543,000         450,000          89,000         126,000
Other working capital                               -115,000         227,000          36,000        -168,000        -299,000        -169,000
Other non-cash items                                -367,000          72,000         529,000         389,000          98,000          27,000
Net cash provided by operating activities          4,439,000       5,844,000       5,436,000       6,923,000       5,973,000       6,508,000

Cash Flows From Investing Activities
Investments in property, plant, and equipmen      -1,786,000      -1,438,000      -1,547,000      -2,533,000      -3,516,000      -3,046,000
Property, plant, and equipment reductions             95,000          28,000          46,000          31,000          85,000          75,000
Acquisitions, net                                    -20,000       1,875,000               0        -518,000               0               0
Other investing activities                          -215,000          43,000          28,000         -55,000          15,000          14,000
Net cash used for investing activities            -1,926,000         508,000      -1,473,000      -3,075,000      -3,416,000      -2,957,000

Cash Flows From Financing Activities
Debt issued                                        1,993,000               0       1,977,000         739,000               0         504,000
Debt repayment                                    -2,159,000         -85,000      -2,641,000      -2,180,000        -281,000      -1,054,000
Common stock repurchased                                   0      -3,438,000      -3,706,000      -1,046,000      -2,124,000      -1,598,000
Dividend paid                                     -1,205,000      -1,362,000      -1,348,000      -1,338,000      -1,335,000      -1,329,000
Other financing activities                           373,000         369,000         221,000         108,000          96,000          70,000
Net cash provided by (used for) financing           -998,000      -4,516,000      -5,497,000      -3,717,000      -3,644,000      -3,407,000

Net change in cash                                 1,515,000       1,836,000      -1,534,000         131,000      -1,087,000         144,000
Cash at beginning of period                          695,000       2,210,000       4,046,000       2,512,000       2,643,000         825,000
Cash at end of period                              2,210,000       4,046,000       2,512,000       2,643,000       1,556,000         969,000

Free Cash Flow
Operating cash flow                                4,439,000       5,844,000       5,436,000       6,923,000       5,973,000       6,508,000
Capital expenditure                               -1,786,000      -1,438,000      -1,547,000      -2,533,000      -3,516,000      -3,046,000
Free cash flow                                     2,653,000       4,406,000       3,889,000       4,390,000       2,457,000       3,462,000
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________





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Average to Current P/E Ratios
              (TGT)     Target Corp.

                               2015    2016    2017    2018    2019

          Annual Earnings:    -2.56    5.31    4.70    5.30    5.51
Average Price During Year:    78.35   73.58   58.15   77.08   88.22

                P/E Ratio:    30.60   13.86   12.37   14.54   16.01

 Average 5-Year P/E Ratio  =  17.48
             Current Price =  124.73

Previous 5 Quarter Earnings:   1.17    1.52    1.53    1.82    1.39

          Current Annualized (Last Four Quarters) Earnings =   4.74
                                                           ________
                                 Average PE / Current PE =     0.66
                                                           --------

                                      ...a number above 1.00 is good
                                                1.00 or below is bad


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Intrinsic Value by Discounted Cash Flow Method:

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Institutional Ownership:

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Sentiment

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As the short interest rises as a percentage of average daily share volume (Days to Cover), this is considered a measure of negative sentiment. Similarly, a decrease in that percentage is considered positive sentiment.

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Channeling Potential

 
The summary below includes a value for `Degree,' which refers on a
scale of 1 to 10 the range of a channel in the period under consi-
deration compared to the total range of price movement. It also looks
for the last closing price to be within the channel, otherwise zeroed.
The `Index' is the `Degree' weighted for volatility.  Generally, the
the higher the index, the more suitable is the stock for trading as
a `rolling stock' between channel high and low points.

Results for TARGET CORPORATION:
Symbol? TGT
Total Months Available:  25
       Months in Cycle?   4

Months Covered by Periods:  12

Period 1           Period 2          Period 3
   H1      L1        H2      L2        H3      L3
  83.65   66.53    110.94   70.03    130.24  104.01

RANGE   = 130.24  TO   66.53            Close = 123.76
CHANNEL = 104.01  TO   83.65           Degree =   3
Volatility =  16.45%                    Index =   4
Channel Chart



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MACD Histogram Divergence

The theory is that connecting the two most recent peaks or valleys of the MACD histogram will signal the direction of the next major move.



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Intraday Chart

2 Days:



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Val Idea

6 out of 10 favorable, (positive opinion.)

Val Idea
Val Idea


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Stock Consultant

Stock Consultant Stock Consultant


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Point & Figure Chart

P & F Chart


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Wall Street Analyzer



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Marketspace Chart

Marketspace Chart



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Time Series Forecast

Time Series 1 Time Series 2


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Neural Network Prediction

"Neurostock" can only track long trades. Therefore its performance, as tracked by itself on stocks which are consistently falling, may not appear as good as it could if each "sell" signal were a "short sale."

Neural Chart
Heading
Neural Trades Neural Prediction



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Ultimate Trading Systems

2 out of 3 of the ultimate systems favor a downmove.


System Below:
Short term outlook: Positive: Bright Green, Negative: Bright Red
Long term outlook: Postive: Dark Green, Negative: Dark Red.




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Recommendation

Decision Weighting Factors
FactorsWeighted Points
News + 1
Comparison - 1
Industry - 1
Bond Issue + 1
Zenith Index + 1
Non-GAAP vs. GAAP Earnings - 1
Cash Flow + 1
Average to Current P/E - 1
Ratios + 1
Intrinsic Value DCF + 1
Fair Value Estimator + 1
Projected Earnings + 1
Research Reports + 1
Analysts + 1
Executive Perquisites - 1
Insider Activity - 1
Institutional Activity - 1
Management Reporting + 1
Short Interest + 1
Sentiment + 1
Standard & Poor's - 1
MACD Histogram Divergence - 1
Val Idea + 1
Stock Consultant + 1
Point & Figure + 1
Wall Street Analyzer - 1
Marketspace Chart + 1
Time Series Chart + 1
Neural Network - 1
Stock Options + 1
Ultimate Trading Systems - 1
Total + 7
Place 245 shares of Target Corporation (TGT) on the Active List.