Management's Discussion of Results of Operations
(Excerpts) |
For purposes of readability, Zenith attempts to strip out all tables in excerpts from the Management Discussion. That information is contained elsewhere in our articles. The idea of this summary is simply to review how well we believe Management does its reporting. Also, this highlights what Management believes is important.
In our Decision Matrix at the end of each article, a company with 0 to 2 gets a "-1", and 3 to 5 gets a "+1."
On a scale of 0 to 5, 5 being best, Zenith rates this company's Management's Discussion as a 5.
Executive Summary Third quarter 2019 includes the following notable items: • GAAP earnings per share from continuing operations were $1.37. • Adjusted earnings per share from continuing operations were $1.36. • Total revenue increased 4.7 percent, driven by a comparable sales increase and sales from new stores. • Comparable sales increased 4.5 percent, driven by a 3.1 percent increase in traffic. ? Comparable store sales grew 2.8 percent. ? Digital channel sales increased 31 percent, contributing 1.7 percentage points to comparable sales growth. • Operating income of $1,002 million was 22.3 percent higher than the comparable prior-year period. Sales were $18,414 million for the three months ended November 2, 2019, an increase of $824 million, or 4.7 percent, from the same period in the prior year. Operating cash flow provided by continuing operations was $4,141 million for the nine months ended November 2, 2019, an increase of $527 million, or 14.6 percent, from $3,614 million for the nine months ended November 3, 2018. Analysis of Results of Operations Summary of Operating Income Three Months Ended Gross margin rate is calculated as gross margin (sales less cost of sales) divided by sales. All other rates are calculated by dividing the applicable amount by total revenue. Sales Sales include all merchandise sales, net of expected returns, and gift card breakage. Comparable sales is a measure that highlights the performance of our stores and digital channels by measuring the change in sales for a period over the comparable, prior-year period of equivalent length. Comparable sales include all sales, except sales from stores open less than 13 months, digital acquisitions we have owned less than 13 months, stores that have been closed, and digital acquisitions that we no longer operate. Comparable sales measures vary across the retail industry. As a result, our comparable sales calculation is not necessarily comparable to similarly titled measures reported by other companies. Digitally originated sales include all sales initiated through mobile applications and our websites. Our stores fulfill the majority of digitally originated sales, including shipment from stores to guests, store pick-up or drive-up, and delivery via our wholly-owned subsidiary, Shipt. Digitally originated sales may also be fulfilled through our distribution centers, our vendors, or other third parties. The increase in sales during the three and nine months ended November 2, 2019, is due to a comparable sales increase of 4.5 percent and 4.2 percent, respectively, and the contribution from new stores. We monitor the percentage of purchases that are paid for using RedCards (RedCard Penetration) because our internal analysis has indicated that a meaningful portion of the incremental purchases on RedCards are also incremental sales for Target. Guests receive a 5 percent discount on virtually all purchases when they use a RedCard at Target. Gross Margin Rate For the three months ended November 2, 2019, our gross margin rate was 29.8 percent compared with 28.7 percent in the comparable period last year. The increase was due to merchandising efforts to optimize costs, pricing, promotions, and assortment, combined with favorable category sales mix. For the three months ended November 2, 2019, aggregate supply chain and digital fulfillment costs had an insignificant impact on our gross margin rate relative to the comparable prior-year period. chart-f3989c2a483f5de29de.jpg For the nine months ended November 2, 2019, our gross margin rate was 30.0 percent compared with 29.6 percent in the comparable period last year. The increase was due to merchandising efforts to optimize costs, pricing, promotions, and assortment, and favorable category sales mix, partially offset by increased supply chain and digital fulfillment costs. Selling, General, and Administrative Expense Rate Other Performance Factors Net Interest Expense Net interest expense was $113 million and $359 million for the three and nine months ended November 2, 2019, respectively, and $115 million and $352 million for the three and nine months ended November 3, 2018, respectively. Provision for Income Taxes Our effective income tax rate from continuing operations for the three and nine months ended November 2, 2019, was 21.7 percent and 22.4 percent, respectively, compared with 13.6 percent and 19.9 percent, respectively, for the comparable periods last year. The effective income tax rates for the three and nine months ended November 3, 2018, included $39 million of discrete benefits of the Tax Act and, to a lesser extent, rate benefits from our global sourcing operations. Reconciliation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures to GAAP Measures To provide additional transparency, we have disclosed non-GAAP adjusted diluted earnings per share from continuing operations (Adjusted EPS). This metric excludes certain items presented below. We believe this information is useful in providing period-to-period comparisons of the results of our continuing operations. This measure is not in accordance with, or an alternative to, generally accepted accounting principles in the U.S. (GAAP). The most comparable GAAP measure is diluted earnings per share from continuing operations. Adjusted EPS should not be considered in isolation or as a substitution for analysis of our results as reported under GAAP. Other companies may calculate Adjusted EPS differently, limiting the usefulness of the measure for comparisons with other companies. Earnings from continuing operations before interest expense and income taxes (EBIT) and earnings before interest expense, income taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) are non-GAAP financial measures which we believe provide meaningful information about our operational efficiency compared with our competitors by excluding the impact of differences in tax jurisdictions and structures, debt levels, and for EBITDA, capital investment. These measures are not in accordance with, or an alternative to, GAAP. The most comparable GAAP measure is net earnings from continuing operations. EBIT and EBITDA should not be considered in isolation or as a substitution for analysis of our results as reported under GAAP. Other companies may calculate EBIT and EBITDA differently, limiting the usefulness of the measure for comparisons with other companies. We have also disclosed after-tax ROIC, which is a ratio based on GAAP information. We believe this metric is useful in assessing the effectiveness of our capital allocation over time. Other companies may calculate ROIC differently, limiting the usefulness of the measure for comparisons with other companies. Analysis of Financial Condition Liquidity and Capital Resources Our cash and cash equivalents balance was $969 million, $1,556 million, and $825 million at November 2, 2019, February 2, 2019, and November 3, 2018, respectively. Our cash and cash equivalents balance includes short-term investments of $163 million, $769 million, and $42 million as of November 2, 2019, February 2, 2019, and November 3, 2018, respectively. Our investment policy is designed to preserve principal and liquidity of our short-term investments. This policy allows investments in large money market funds or in highly rated direct short-term instruments that mature in 60 days or less. We also place dollar limits on our investments in individual funds or instruments. Capital Allocation We follow a disciplined and balanced approach to capital allocation based on the following priorities, ranked in order of importance: first, we fully invest in opportunities to profitably grow our business, create sustainable long-term value, and maintain our current operations and assets; second, we maintain a competitive quarterly dividend and seek to grow it annually; and finally, we return any excess cash to shareholders by repurchasing shares within the limits of our credit rating goals. We expect 2019 capital expenditures to total approximately $3.1 billion, compared with $3.5 billion in 2018. Operating Cash Flows Operating cash flow provided by continuing operations was $4,141 million for the nine months ended November 2, 2019, compared with $3,614 million for the nine months ended November 3, 2018. The operating cash flow increase was primarily driven by higher net earnings during the nine months ended November 2, 2019, compared with the same period in the prior year. Inventory Inventory was $11,396 million as of November 2, 2019, compared with $9,497 million and $12,393 million at February 2, 2019, and November 3, 2018, respectively. The increase from February 2, 2019, reflects the seasonal inventory build ahead of the November and December holiday sales period. Inventory levels were lower as of November 2, 2019, compared with November 3, 2018, partially due to timing of receipts because the Thanksgiving holiday is later in the current year. In addition, elevated inventory levels in the prior year reflected investments in toys and baby-related merchandise. Dividends We paid dividends totaling $337 million ($0.66 per share) and $995 million ($1.94 per share) for the three and nine months ended November 2, 2019, respectively, and $337 million ($0.64 per share) and $1,001 million ($1.88 per share) for the three and nine months ended November 3, 2018, respectively, a per share increase of 3.1 percent and 3.2 percent, respectively. We declared dividends totaling $338 million ($0.66 per share) during the third quarter of 2019, a per share increase of 3.1 percent over the $338 million ($0.64 per share) of declared dividends during the third quarter of 2018. We have paid dividends every quarter since our 1967 initial public offering, and it is our intent to continue to do so in the future. Share Repurchase We returned $294 million and $912 million to shareholders through share repurchase during the three and nine months ended November 2, 2019, respectively. See Part II, Item 2 of this Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q and Note 7 to the Consolidated Financial Statements for more information. Financing Our financing strategy is to ensure liquidity and access to capital markets, to maintain a balanced spectrum of debt maturities, and to manage our net exposure to floating interest rate volatility. Within these parameters, we seek to minimize our borrowing costs. Our ability to access the long-term debt and commercial paper markets has provided us with ample sources of liquidity. Our continued access to these markets depends on multiple factors, including the condition of debt capital markets, our operating performance, and maintaining strong credit ratings. As of November 2, 2019, our credit ratings were as follows: Credit Ratings Moody’s Standard and Poor’s Fitch Long-term debt A2 A A- Commercial paper P-1 A-1 F1 If our credit ratings were lowered, our ability to access the debt markets, our cost of funds, and other terms for new debt issuances could be adversely impacted. Each of the credit rating agencies reviews its rating periodically and there is no guarantee our current credit ratings will remain the same as described above. Fitch raised our commercial paper rating from F2 to F1 during the three months ended August 3, 2019. In March 2019, we issued $1.0 billion of debt, and in June 2019, we repaid $1.0 billion of debt at maturity. Notes 5 and 6 to the Consolidated Financial Statements provide additional information. We have additional liquidity through a committed $2.5 billion revolving credit facility obtained through a group of banks. In October 2018, we extended this credit facility by one year to October 2023. No balances were outstanding at any time during 2019 or 2018. Most of our long-term debt obligations contain covenants related to secured debt levels. In addition to a secured debt level covenant, our credit facility also contains a debt leverage covenant. We are, and expect to remain, in compliance with these covenants. Additionally, as of November 2, 2019, no notes or debentures contained provisions requiring acceleration of payment upon a credit rating downgrade, except that certain outstanding notes allow the note holders to put the notes to us if within a matter of months of each other we experience both (i) a change in control; and (ii) our long-term credit ratings are either reduced and the resulting rating is noninvestment grade, or our long-term credit ratings are placed on watch for possible reduction and those ratings are subsequently reduced and the resulting rating is noninvestment grade. We believe our sources of liquidity will continue to be adequate to maintain operations, finance anticipated expansion and strategic initiatives, fund debt maturities, pay dividends, and execute purchases under our share repurchase program for the foreseeable future. We continue to anticipate ample access to commercial paper and long-term financing. Contractual Obligations and Commitments As of the date of this report, other than the new borrowings discussed in Note 5 to the Consolidated Financial Statements, New Accounting Pronouncements We do not expect any recently issued accounting pronouncements to have a material effect on our financial statements. Controls and Procedures Changes in Internal Control Over Financial Reporting During the most recently completed fiscal quarter, the following change to our information technology systems materially affected, or is reasonably likely to materially affect, our internal control over financial reporting: We are in the process of a broad multi-year migration of many mainframe-based systems and middleware products to a modern platform, including systems and processes supporting inventory and supply chain-related transactions. During the most recently completed fiscal quarter, no other change in our internal control over financial reporting materially affected, or is reasonably likely to materially affect, our internal control over financial reporting. Evaluation of Disclosure Controls and Procedures As of the end of the period covered by this quarterly report, we conducted an evaluation, under supervision and with the participation of management, including the chief executive officer and chief financial officer, of the effectiveness of the design and operation of our disclosure controls and procedures pursuant to Rules 13a-15 and 15d-15 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (Exchange Act). Based upon that evaluation, our chief executive officer and chief financial officer concluded that our disclosure controls and procedures are effective at the reasonable assurance level. Disclosure controls and procedures are defined by Rules 13a-15(e) and 15d-15(e) of the Exchange Act as controls and other procedures that are designed to ensure that information required to be disclosed by us in reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) under the Exchange Act is recorded, processed, summarized, and reported within the time periods specified in the SEC’s rules and forms. Disclosure controls and procedures include, without limitation, controls and procedures designed to ensure that information required to be disclosed by us in reports filed under the Exchange Act is accumulated and communicated to our management, including our principal executive and principal financial officers, or persons performing similar functions, as appropriate, to allow timely decisions regarding required disclosure.