Trade Mark

     11-07-2025:   J.B. Hunt Transport Services (JBHT):       Billion Dollar Buyback


     Description of Company



Strengths

JBHT has a strong and diversified logistics business: intermodal, dedicated contract services, trucking, last-mile. So it isn’t fully tied to one narrow segment.
The intermodal business (truck + rail) is showing volume growth in key markets (for example Q2 2025: intermodal revenue up ~2% and loads up ~6% year-over-year). 

Analyst sentiment remains mostly positive (a majority “buy” ratings) and moderate upside in price targets. 
StockAnalysis

The company appears to be actively managing costs (e.g., wages, claims, maintenance) in the face of margin pressures. 

Risks / Weaknesses

Revenue and net income have been declining: In 2024 annual revenue was about $12.09 billion, down ~5.8% vs 2023. 
 Net income also dropped ~21.6% in 2024. 

Several of its segments are under pressure: For Q2 2025, the Final Mile Services unit saw a 10% revenue decline and a dramatically worse operating income drop (~60% reduction) year-over-year. 

Technical indicators appear weak: Some reports suggest poor technical strength and bearish trend signals. 

Limited upside in current analyst consensus: Many target prices suggest little to modest positive movement from current levels. For example, average 12-month target ~$162–167. 

Macro and industry risks: Freight demand is cyclical, affected by economic/consumer demand, overcapacity, supply-chain shifts, tariffs etc. These remain meaningful for JBHT. 

Given the above, my moderate verdict is: JBHT is a reasonable hold for someone already in the stock, but not strongly bullish that it’s a high-growth opportunity right now. The case looks more defensive with modest growth potential rather than explosive upside.

One source places a grade: perhaps a “C+” or “3 out of 5” — solid company, decent business model, but a number of headwinds and modest near-term upside.
    

     Recent Charts


Our (technical) predictive charts give a mixed picture.  The trend appears to have suddenly reversed to a sharp up, but wisodm suggests to wait to see if the stock recovers to support levels indicasted in a "point of control" or heavy previous volume laden price area. This is very interesting because there is substantial volume support at current levels but previouis converntional chart wisdom suggests that "gaps must be filled", which would drive prices back to the previous support level. Problem is that this gap was caused by a news announcement that the company plans a billion dollar stock share buyback program, which if initiated immediately would provide a lot of support at current levels. J.B. Hunt has been trending upward for a very long time. You could have had it for $10/share at the turn of the century and for $20/share as recently as 2008, and the upward climb has been very steady so far. But revenues have been declining recently and there is a certain vulnerability there. Thus the MACD indicator definitely expects a bit of a meltdown and the previous chart patterns indicator is also expecting the gap to be filled. The "buyback" will not occur all at once because that would drive up prices hurting the company's attempt to regulate share price with support but not a further gapping action. Put it all together, and we expect the stock to return to pre-gap levels at which point it will be a buy by the "golden crossover" rule whioh is apparent on the current chart as having already happened.

     Corporate Website Excerpts








     News Items












     Zenith Index

     Management's Discussion: Results of Operations

MANAGEMENT'S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL CONDITION AND RESULTS OF OPERATIONS Revenue Equipment We operate a significant number of tractors, trucks, containers, chassis, and trailers in connection with our business. This equipment may be purchased or acquired under lease agreements. In addition, we may rent revenue equipment from various third parties under short-term rental arrangements. Purchased revenue equipment is depreciated on the straight-line method over the estimated useful life to an estimated salvage or trade-in value. We periodically review the useful lives and salvage values of our revenue equipment and evaluate our long-lived assets for impairment. We have not identified any impairment to these assets at December 31, 2024. We have agreements with our primary tractor suppliers for residual or trade-in values for certain new equipment. We have utilized these trade-in values, as well as other operational information such as anticipated annual miles, in accounting for depreciation expense. Revenue Recognition We record revenues on the gross basis at amounts charged to our customers because we control and are primarily responsible for the fulfillment of promised services. Accordingly, we serve as a principal in the transaction. We invoice our customers, and we maintain discretion over pricing. Additionally, we are responsible for selection of third-party transportation providers to the extent used to satisfy customer freight requirements. We recognize revenue from customer contracts based on relative transit time in each reporting period and as other performance obligations are provided, with related expenses recognized as incurred. Accordingly, a portion of the total revenue that will be billed to the customer is recognized in each reporting period based on the percentage of the freight pickup and delivery performance obligation that has been completed at the end of the reporting period. Our trade accounts receivable includes accounts receivable reduced by an allowance for uncollectible accounts. Receivables are recorded at amounts billed to customers when loads are delivered or services are performed. The allowance for uncollectible accounts is calculated over the life of the underlying receivable and is based on historical experience; any known trends or uncertainties related to customer billing and account collectability; current economic conditions; and reasonable and supportable economic forecasts, each applied to segregated risk pools based on the business segment that generated the receivable. The adequacy of our allowance is reviewed quarterly. Income Taxes We account for income taxes under the liability method. Our deferred tax assets and liabilities represent items that will result in a tax deduction or taxable income in future years for which we have already recorded the related tax expense or benefit in our statement of earnings. Deferred tax accounts arise as a result of timing differences between when items are recognized in our Consolidated Financial Statements and when they are recognized in our tax returns. We assess the likelihood that deferred tax assets will be recovered from future taxable income or the reversal of temporary timing differences. To the extent we believe recovery does not meet the more likely than not threshold, a valuation allowance is established. To the extent we establish a valuation allowance, we include an expense as part of our income tax provision. Significant judgment is required in determining and assessing the impact of complex tax laws and certain tax-related contingencies on our provision for income taxes. As part of our calculation of the provision for income taxes, we assess whether the benefits of our tax positions are at least more likely than not to be sustained upon audit based on the technical merits of the tax position. For tax positions that are not more likely than not to be sustained upon audit, we accrue the largest amount of the benefit that is not more likely than not to be sustained in our Consolidated Financial Statements. Such accruals require us to make estimates and judgments, whereby actual results could vary materially from these estimates. Further, a number of years may elapse before a particular matter for which we have established an accrual is audited and resolved. See Note 6, Income Taxes, in our Consolidated Financial Statements for a discussion of our current tax contingencies. RESULTS OF OPERATIONS Our total consolidated operating revenues decreased 5.8% to $12.09 billion in 2024, compared to $12.83 billion in 2023. This decrease was primarily due to lower volume within DCS, ICS and JBT, decreased revenue per load within JBI and JBT, and decreased revenue and stop counts in FMS. Fuel surcharge revenues decreased 17.4% to $1.53 billion in 2024, compared to $1.85 billion in 2023. Revenues, excluding fuel surcharge revenues, decreased 3.8% from 2023. Consolidated Operating Expenses Our 2024 consolidated operating expenses decreased 4.9% from 2023, while year-over-year revenue decreased 5.8%, resulting in a 2024 operating ratio of 93.1% compared to 92.3% in 2023. Rents and purchased transportation costs decreased 8.4% in 2024, primarily due to a decrease in rail and truck carrier purchased transportation rates within JBI, ICS and JBT segments and decreased ICS and JBT load volume, which decreased services provided by third-party rail and truck carriers during the current year. Salaries, wages and employee benefit costs decreased 0.8% in 2024 from 2023. This decrease was primarily related to a decrease in employee headcounts, partially offset by an increase in group medical benefit expenses and wage increases. Depreciation and amortization expense increased 3.1% in 2024, primarily due to the addition of tractors and trailing equipment within JBI and additional depreciation and amortization expense resulting from the recent business acquisition of BNSF Logistics, LLC (BNSFL), partially offset by the impact of the change in expected useful lives of our container fleet and equipment reductions within DCS. Fuel and fuel taxes expense decreased 13.2% in 2024 compared with 2023, due primarily to a decrease in the price of fuel during 2024 and decreased road miles. We have fuel surcharge programs in place with the majority of our customers. These programs typically involve a specified computation based on the change in national, regional, or local fuel prices. While these programs may address fuel cost changes as frequently as weekly, most also reflect a specified miles-per-gallon factor and require a certain minimum change in fuel costs to trigger a change in fuel surcharge revenue. As a result, some of these programs have a time lag between when fuel costs change and when this change is reflected in revenues. Due to these programs, this lag negatively impacts operating income in times of rapidly increasing fuel costs and positively impacts operating income when fuel costs decrease rapidly. It is not meaningful to compare the amount of fuel surcharge revenue or the change in fuel surcharge revenue between reporting periods to fuel and fuel taxes expense, or the change of fuel expense between periods, as a significant portion of fuel cost is included in our payments to railroads, dray carriers and other third parties. These payments are classified as purchased transportation expense. Operating supplies and expenses decreased 2.7% in 2024 compared with 2023, driven primarily by lower equipment maintenance costs, decreased towing expenses, lower tolls expense, and decreased other operating supply costs compared to 2023. Insurance and claims expense decreased 0.6% in 2024, primarily due to lower reserve expense for claims subject to insurance coverage-layer-specific aggregated limits and lower claim volume, partially offset by increased cost per claim and higher insurance policy premium expense. General and administrative expenses increased 11.6% from 2023, primarily due to an increase in building and yard rental expense, higher agent services expense, increased technology costs, and higher bad debt expense, partially offset by lower advertising costs and lower net losses from sale or disposal of assets. Net loss from sale or disposal of assets was $14.6 million in 2024, compared to a net loss from sale or disposal of assets of $27.8 million in 2023. Net interest expense for 2024 increased by 23.0% compared with 2023, due primarily to an increase in effective interest rates on our debt and an increase in our average debt balance. Income tax expense decreased 8.7% in 2024, due primarily to decreased taxable earnings in 2024, partially offset by a higher effective income tax rate. Our effective income tax rate was 24.8% in 2024 and 22.1% in 2023. The increase in rate was primarily due to discrete tax items recorded in 2023 that were not incurred in 2024. Our financing arrangements require us to maintain certain covenants and financial ratios. At December 31, 2024, we were in compliance with all covenants and financial ratios. We are currently committed to spend approximately $677 million, net of proceeds from sales or trade-ins, during the years 2025 and 2026, as well as an additional $89 million thereafter. These expenditures will relate primarily to the acquisition of tractors, containers, chassis, and other trailing equipment. We had no other off-balance sheet arrangements as of December 31, 2024. QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE DISCLOSURES ABOUT MARKET RISK Interest rate risk can be quantified by measuring the financial impact of a near-term adverse increase in short-term interest rates on variable-rate debt outstanding. Our total long-term debt consists of both fixed and variable interest rate facilities. Our senior notes have a fixed interest rate of 3.875%. These fixed-rate facilities reduce the impact of changes to market interest rates on future interest expense. Our senior credit facility and term loan have variable interest rates, which are based on either SOFR or a Base Rate, depending upon the specific type of borrowing, plus an applicable margin and other fees. At December 31, 2024, the average interest rate under our senior credit facility and term loan was 5.48%. Our earnings would be affected by changes in these short-term variable interest rates. At our current level of borrowing, a one-percentage-point increase in our applicable rate would reduce annual pretax earnings by $7.8 million. Although we conduct business in foreign countries, international operations are not material to our consolidated financial position, results of operations, or cash flows. Additionally, foreign currency transaction gains and losses were not material to our results of operations for the year ended December 31, 2024. Accordingly, we are not currently subject to material foreign currency exchange rate risks from the effects that exchange rate movements of foreign currencies would have on our future costs or on future cash flows we would receive from our foreign investment. To date, we have not entered into any foreign currency forward exchange contracts or other derivative financial instruments to hedge the effects of adverse fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates. The price and availability of diesel fuel are subject to fluctuations due to changes in the level of global oil production, seasonality, weather, and other market factors. Historically, we have been able to recover a majority of fuel-price increases from our customers in the form of fuel surcharges. We cannot predict the extent to which volatile fluctuations in fuel prices will continue in the future or the extent to which fuel surcharges could be collected to offset fuel-price increases. As of December 31, 2024, we had no derivative financial instruments to reduce our exposure to fuel-price fluctuations.

     Analysts' Ratings




Zenith Benchmark Performance Report (4th Quarter):

Below is an interim report on a portion of Zenith's Fourth Quarter covering 09-29-2025 to 10-29-2025. We commit around $30,000 per stock and do not compound investments so share alotments stay constant. Reports are made at odd intervals and trades closed out at as yet unpredetermined intervals, then given a fresh start each quarter with cumulative totals zeroed out.

Closed Trades
_____________
                                                        Trade   Total     Gain
Date    Sym   Company                        BS Shares  Price   Aft Cm  (-Loss)

251016  ADBE  Adobe Systems Inc              B     88 330.78 $  29,108 $      0
251028  ADBE  Adobe Systems Inc              S    176 360.06 $  63,370 $  2,577
251010  AVGO  Broadcom Ltd                   B     77 327.29 $  25,201 $      0
251029  AVGO  Broadcom Ltd                   S    154 382.62 $  58,923 $  4,260
251010  AXTA  Axalta Coating Systems Ltd     B   1017  26.54 $  26,991 $      0
251028  AXTA  Axalta Coating Systems Ltd     S   2034  30.41 $  61,853 $  3,935
250929  BFAM  Bright Horizons Family Solutio S    323 108.27 $  34,971 $      0
251029  BFAM  Bright Horizons Family Solutio B    646  93.58 $  60,452 $  4,745
251016  BP    BP Plc ADR                     B    852  33.05 $  28,158 $      0
251029  BP    BP Plc ADR                     S   1704  35.12 $  59,844 $  1,764
250929  CAT   Caterpillar Inc                B     51 472.13 $  24,078 $      0
251029  CAT   Caterpillar Inc                S    102 590.25 $  60,205 $  6,024
250929  CCB   Coastal Financial Corp         S    285 116.99 $  33,342 $      0
251016  CCB   Coastal Financial Corp         B    570  99.79 $  56,880 $  4,902
250929  CELH  Celsius Holdings Inc           B    488  55.36 $  27,015 $      0
251016  CELH  Celsius Holdings Inc           S    976  66.07 $  64,484 $  5,227
250929  CENTA Central Garden & Pet           S   1064  29.75 $  31,654 $      0
251014  CENTA Central Garden & Pet           B   2128  26.23 $  55,817 $  3,746
251007  CHEF  The Chefs Warehouse            B    481  53.77 $  25,863 $      0
251029  CHEF  The Chefs Warehouse            S    962  62.97 $  60,577 $  4,425
251006  EPD   Enterprise Products Partners L S    964  31.47 $  30,337 $      0
251017  EPD   Enterprise Products Partners L B   1928  30.31 $  58,437 $  1,119
251008  FOUR  Shift4 Payments Inc            S    428  80.17 $  34,312 $      0
251029  FOUR  Shift4 Payments Inc            B    856  70.00 $  59,920 $  4,352
251010  HLX   Helix Energy Solutions Group   B   4457   6.18 $  27,544 $      0
251023  HLX   Helix Energy Solutions Group   S   8914   7.89 $  70,331 $  7,621
250930  INTC  Intel Corp                     B    725  33.35 $  24,178 $      0
251028  INTC  Intel Corp                     S   1450  42.06 $  60,987 $  6,315
251003  KEYS  Keysight Technologies Inc      S    175 175.08 $  30,639 $      0
251010  KEYS  Keysight Technologies Inc      B    350 160.38 $  56,133 $  2,573
250929  KKR   KKR & Company LP               S    253 134.71 $  34,081 $      0
251016  KKR   KKR & Company LP               B    506 116.88 $  59,141 $  4,511
251016  LEU   Centrus Energy Corp            S     76 459.61 $  34,930 $      0
251022  LEU   Centrus Energy Corp            B    152 296.76 $  45,107 $ 12,377
251009  LHX   L3Harris Technologies Inc      S    104 305.04 $  31,724 $      0
251017  LHX   L3Harris Technologies Inc      B    208 285.09 $  59,298 $  2,075
251014  LVS   Las Vegas Sands                B    510  46.37 $  23,648 $      0
251027  LVS   Las Vegas Sands                S   1020  59.06 $  60,241 $  6,472
251010  MPAA  Motorcar Parts Amer            B   1761  14.85 $  26,150 $      0
251029  MPAA  Motorcar Parts Amer            S   3522  17.36 $  61,141 $  4,420
250929  PCVX  Vaxcyte Inc                    B    689  33.96 $  23,398 $      0
251028  PCVX  Vaxcyte Inc                    S   1378  45.05 $  62,078 $  7,641
251022  PLTR  Palantir Technologies Inc Cl A B    150 171.11 $  25,666 $      0
251029  PLTR  Palantir Technologies Inc Cl A S    300 197.85 $  59,355 $  4,011
250930  SNOW  Snowflake Inc Cl A             B    111 223.74 $  24,835 $      0
251029  SNOW  Snowlake Inc Cl A             S    222 269.67 $  59,866 $  5,098
251003  TMHC  Taylor Morrison Home Corp      S    507  67.86 $  34,405 $      0
251028  TMHC  Taylor Morrison Home Corp      B   1014  58.25 $  59,065 $  4,873
251022  TT    Trane Technologies Plc         B     70 412.19 $  28,853 $      0
251029  TT    Trane Technologies Plc         S    140 433.37 $  60,671 $  1,482
251013  VOD   Vodafone Grp Plc ADR           B   2521  11.26 $  28,386 $      0
251028  VOD   Vodafone Grp Plc ADR           S   5042  12.24 $  61,714 $  2,471
250929  VRT   Vertiv Holdings Llc.           B    150 142.81 $  21,421 $      0
251029  VRT   Vertiv Holdings Llc.           S    300 197.51 $  59,252 $  8,205
251021  WDFC  W D 40 Company                 B    156 189.27 $  29,526 $      0
251023  WDFC  W D 40 Company                 S    312 212.85 $  66,409 $  3,678
251013  ZBH   Zimmer Biomet Holdings         B    300  94.95 $  28,484 $      0
251022  ZBH   Zimmer Biomet Holdings         S    600 105.81 $  63,485 $  3,258
251014  ZM    Zoom Communications Inc        B    360  78.54 $  28,274 $      0
251027  ZM    Zoom Communications Inc        S    720  85.92 $  61,862 $  2,657
                                                                      _________
                                                                     $  136,814
Open Positions, Only
_____________________

                                                        Recent  Total     Gain
Date    Sym   Company                        BS Shares  Price   Aft Cm  (-Loss)

251029  SNOW  Snowflake Inc Cl A             S    111 269.70 $  29,936 $     -3
251010  KEYS  Keysight Technologies Inc      B    175 170.47 $  29,832 $  1,748
251027  ZM    Zoom Communications Inc        S    360  83.32 $  29,995 $    945
251029  AVGO  Broadcom Ltd                   S     77 385.98 $  29,720 $   -261
251027  LVS   Las Vegas Sands                S    510  58.78 $  29,977 $    144
251028  PCVX  Vaxcyte Inc                    S    689  43.52 $  29,985 $  1,065
251028  INTC  Intel Corp                     S    725  41.34 $  29,971 $    527
251029  BP    BP Plc ADR                     S    852  35.20 $  29,990 $    -69
251028  AXTA  Axalta Coating Systems Ltd     S   1017  29.48 $  29,981 $    955
251014  CENTA Central Garden & Pet           B   1064  28.17 $  29,972 $  2,044
251016  KKR   KKR & Company LP               B    253 118.55 $  29,993 $    418
251029  TT    Trane Technologies Plc         S     70 427.48 $  29,923 $    416
251022  LEU   Centrus Energy Corp            B     76 390.82 $  29,702 $  7,077
251029  CAT   Caterpillar Inc                S     51 585.49 $  29,859 $    245
251028  ADBE  Adobe Systems Inc              S     88 337.86 $  29,731 $  1,973
251029  BFAM  Bright Horizons Family Solutio B    323  92.70 $  29,942 $   -281
251016  CELH  Celsius Holdings Inc           S    488  61.38 $  29,953 $  2,312
251029  VRT   Vertiv Holdings Llc.           S    150 199.27 $  29,890 $   -267
251023  WDFC  W D 40 Company                 S    156 191.41 $  29,859 $  3,378
251017  LHX   L3Harris Technologies Inc      B    104 286.87 $  29,834 $    183
251029  CHEF  The Chefs Warehouse            S    481  62.35 $  29,990 $    301
251029  FOUR  Shift4 Payments Inc            B    428  70.01 $  29,964 $      4
251022  ZBH   Zimmer Biomet Holdings         S    300  99.71 $  29,912 $  1,848
251017  EPD   Enterprise Products Partners L B    964  31.12 $  29,999 $    773
251029  PLTR  Palantir Technologies Inc Cl A S    150 198.81 $  29,821 $   -145
251016  CCB   Coastal Financial Corp         B    285 105.16 $  29,970 $  1,515
251023  HLX   Helix Energy Solutions Group   S   4457   6.73 $  29,995 $  5,222
251029  MPAA  Motorcar Parts Amer            S   1761  17.03 $  29,989 $    587
251028  VOD   Vodafone Grp Plc ADR           S   2521  11.90 $  29,999 $    866
251028  TMHC  Taylor Morrison Home Corp      B    507  59.08 $  29,953 $    417
                                                                      _________
                                                                     $   33,937

                             Grand Total (non-option trades):       $   170,751

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