Management's Discussion of Results of Operations
(Excerpts) |
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Overview United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (together with its consolidated subsidiaries, "UAL" or the "Company") is a holding company and its principal, wholly-owned subsidiary is United Airlines, Inc. (together with its consolidated subsidiaries, "United"). This Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q is a combined report of UAL and United including their respective consolidated financial statements. As UAL consolidates United for financial statement purposes, disclosures that relate to activities of United also apply to UAL, unless otherwise noted. United's operating revenues and operating expenses comprise nearly 100% of UAL's revenues and operating expenses. In addition, United comprises approximately the entire balance of UAL's assets, liabilities and operating cash flows. When appropriate, UAL and United are named specifically for their individual contractual obligations and related disclosures and any significant differences between the operations and results of UAL and United are separately disclosed and explained. We sometimes use the words "we," "our," "us," and the "Company" in this report for disclosures that relate to all of UAL and United. The Company transports people and cargo through its mainline operations, which utilize jet aircraft with at least 126 seats, and regional operations, which utilize smaller aircraft that are operated under contract by United Express carriers. The Company serves virtually every major market around the world, either directly or through participation in Star Alliance®, the world's largest airline alliance. UAL, through United and its regional carriers, operates approximately 4,900 flights a day to 358 airports across five continents. Third Quarter Highlights • Third quarter 2019 net income was $1.0 billion, or $3.99 diluted earnings per share, as compared to net income of $833 million, or diluted earnings per share of $3.05, in the third quarter of 2018. • Passenger revenue increased 3.6% to $10.5 billion during the third quarter of 2019 as compared to the third quarter of 2018. • Traffic and capacity increased 1.9% during the third quarter of 2019 as compared to the third quarter of 2018. The Company's passenger load factor for the third quarter of 2019 was 86.1%. Outlook Set forth below is a discussion of matters that we believe could impact our financial and operating performance and cause our results of operations in future periods to differ materially from our historical operating results and/or from our anticipated results of operations described in the forward-looking statements in this report. See Part I, Item 1A., Risk Factors, of the Company's Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2018 (the "2018 Annual Report") and Part II, Item 1A., Risk Factors, of this report for a detailed discussion of the risk factors affecting UAL and United, and the factors described under "Forward-Looking Information" below for additional discussion of these and other factors that could affect us. Growth Strategy. Our priorities for 2019 are delivering top-tier operational reliability and customer service while continuing to execute on our growth plan by strengthening our domestic network through strategic and efficient growth and investing in our people and product. Fuel. The price of jet fuel remains volatile. Based on projected fuel consumption in 2019, a one-dollar change in the price of a barrel of crude oil would change the Company's annual fuel expense by approximately $102 million. RESULTS OF OPERATIONS The following discussion provides an analysis of our results of operations and reasons for material changes therein for the three months ended September 30, 2019 as compared to the corresponding period in 2018. Third Quarter 2019 Compared to Third Quarter 2018 The Company recorded net income of $1.0 billion in the third quarter of 2019 as compared to net income of $833 million in the third quarter of 2018. The Company considers a key measure of its performance to be operating income, which was $1.5 billion for the third quarter of 2019, as compared to $1.2 billion for the third quarter of 2018, a $286 million increase year-over-year. Significant components of the Company's operating results for the three months ended September 30 are as follows (in millions, except percentage changes): Operating Revenue. Passenger revenue increased $361 million, or 3.6%, in the third quarter of 2019 as compared to the year-ago period primarily due to a 1.9% increase in traffic, a 3.1% increase in average fares, primarily in the Domestic and Latin markets, the continued roll-out of United's Premium Plus product, as well as increases in ancillary fees. Operating Expenses. Salaries and related costs increased $133 million, or 4.5%, in the third quarter of 2019 as compared to the year-ago period primarily due to contractually higher pay rates, higher benefit expenses and a 1.8% increase in average full-time equivalent employees. Aircraft fuel expense decreased by $276 million, or 10.7%, in the third quarter of 2019 as compared to the year-ago period. During the third quarter of 2019, the Company obtained a $35 million state fuel tax refund. Regional capacity purchase increased $45 million, or 6.7%, in the third quarter of 2019 as compared to the year-ago period primarily due to a 2.6% increase in 50-seat aircraft capacity and rate increases under various capacity purchase agreements with regional carriers. Depreciation and amortization increased $30 million, or 5.5%, in the third quarter of 2019 as compared to the year-ago period primarily due to additions of new and used aircraft and increases in technology infrastructure. Aircraft maintenance materials and outside repairs increased $35 million, or 7.7%, in the third quarter of 2019 as compared to the year-ago period primarily due to the timing of regular airframe maintenance checks and component part repairs. Aircraft rent decreased $42 million, or 38.5%, in the third quarter of 2019 as compared to the year-ago period, primarily due to the purchase of leased aircraft and the conversion of certain operating leases to finance leases. Other operating expenses increased $124 million, or 8.5%, in the third quarter of 2019 as compared to the year-ago period, primarily due to an increase in purchased services related to our airport operations, technology initiatives, facility projects and crew-related expenses. Nonoperating Income (Expense). The following table illustrates the year-over-year dollar and percentage changes in the Company's nonoperating income (expense) for the three months ended September 30 (in millions, except for percentage changes): First Nine Months 2019 Compared to First Nine Months 2018 The Company recorded net income of $2.4 billion in the first nine months of 2019 as compared to net income of $1.7 billion in the first nine months of 2018. The Company considers a key measure of its performance to be operating income, which was $3.4 billion for the first nine months of 2019, as compared to $2.6 billion for the first nine months of 2018, an $846 million increase year-over-year. Total operating expenses Salaries and related costs increased $459 million, or 5.4%, in the first nine months of 2019 as compared to the year-ago period primarily due to contractually higher pay rates, higher benefit expenses and a 3.4% increase in average full-time equivalent employees. Aircraft fuel expense decreased $223 million, or 3.2%, in the first nine months of 2019 as compared to the year-ago period. Regional capacity purchase increased $125 million, or 6.3%, in the first nine months of 2019 as compared to the year-ago period primarily due to a 4.3% increase in 50-seat aircraft capacity and rate increases under various capacity purchase agreements with regional carriers. Aircraft rent decreased $134 million, or 37.7%, in the first nine months of 2019 as compared to the year-ago period, primarily due to the purchase of leased aircraft and the conversion of certain operating leases to finance leases. Interest expense increased $73 million, or 14.7%, in the first nine months of 2019 as compared to the year-ago period, primarily due to the conversion of certain operating leases to finance leases and debt issued for the acquisition of new aircraft. Miscellaneous, net decreased $150 million in the first nine months of 2019 as compared to the year-ago period, primarily due to fluctuation in the mark-to-market of certain financial instruments. Income Taxes. See Note 5 to the financial statements included in Part I, Item 1 of this report for information related to income taxes. LIQUIDITY AND CAPITAL RESOURCES Current Liquidity As of September 30, 2019, the Company had $5.1 billion in unrestricted cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments, as compared to $4.0 billion at December 31, 2018. As of September 30, 2019, the Company had its entire commitment capacity of $2.0 billion under the revolving credit facility of the Amended and Restated Credit and Guaranty Agreement available for borrowings. At September 30, 2019, the Company also had $104 million of restricted cash and cash equivalents, which is primarily collateral for letters of credit and collateral associated with facility leases and other insurance-related obligations. We have a significant amount of fixed obligations, including debt and leases of aircraft, airport and other facilities, and pension funding obligations. As of September 30, 2019, the Company had approximately $14.4 billion of debt and finance lease obligations, including $1.3 billion that will become due in the next 12 months. In addition, we have substantial noncancelable commitments for capital expenditures, including the acquisition of certain new aircraft and related spare engines. As of September 30, 2019, our current liabilities exceeded our current assets by approximately $7.2 billion. However, approximately $8.1 billion of our current liabilities are related to our advance ticket sales and frequent flyer deferred revenue, both of which largely represent revenue to be recognized for travel in the near future and not actual cash outlays. The deficit in working capital does not have an adverse impact to our cash flows, liquidity or operations. As of September 30, 2019, United had firm commitments and options to purchase aircraft from The Boeing Company ("Boeing"), Airbus S.A.S. ("Airbus") and Embraer S.A. ("Embraer"). The aircraft are scheduled for delivery through 2027. To the extent the Company and the aircraft manufacturers with whom the Company has existing orders for new aircraft agree to modify the contracts governing those orders, the amount and timing of the Company's future capital commitments could change. United also has agreements to purchase 20 used Airbus A319 aircraft with expected delivery dates through 2022 and 20 used Boeing 737-700 aircraft with expected delivery dates in 2019 through 2021. On March 13, 2019, the Federal Aviation Administration issued an emergency order prohibiting the operation of Boeing 737 MAX series airplanes by U.S. certificated operators (the "FAA Order"). As a result, the Company grounded all 14 Boeing 737 MAX 9 aircraft in its fleet. Prior to the grounding, the Company operated approximately 50 flights a day on these aircraft, and expected, given the anticipated delivery schedule, to operate approximately 110 flights a day by the end of the year. The FAA Order also resulted in Boeing suspending delivery of new Boeing 737 MAX series aircraft. The extent of the delay to the scheduled deliveries of the 737 MAX aircraft included in the table above is expected to be impacted by the length of time the FAA Order remains in place, Boeing's production rate and the pace at which Boeing can deliver aircraft following the lifting of the FAA Order, among other factors. As of September 30, 2019, United had $1.2 billion in financing available through enhanced equipment trust certificates ("EETC") transactions that it intends to use for the financing of certain aircraft deliveries scheduled through the first quarter of 2020. Approximately $93 million of the proceeds from the February 2019 pass through certificates (such certificates, the "2019-1 Pass Through Certificates") were expected to be used to purchase equipment notes issued by United and secured by three Boeing 737 MAX aircraft, which aircraft were scheduled for delivery by Boeing in March, April and May of 2019. However, as a result of the FAA Order, United has not yet taken delivery of these three aircraft. If United is not in a position to take delivery of such 737 MAX aircraft on or prior to November 30, 2019, any funds remaining with the depositary in escrow at such time, together with accrued and unpaid interest thereon but without premium, will be distributed to the holders of the 2019-1 Pass Through Certificates. See Note 11 to the financial statements included in Part I, Item 1 of this report for additional information on aircraft financing. As of September 30, 2019, UAL and United have total capital commitments related to the acquisition of aircraft and related spare engines, aircraft improvements and all non-aircraft capital commitments for approximately $23.6 billion, of which approximately $1.5 billion, $6.1 billion, $3.8 billion, $2.9 billion, $2.3 billion and $7 billion are due in the last three months of 2019 and for the full year for 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023 and thereafter, respectively. Commitments for 2020 are expected to be higher than other years listed above due to the large number of wide-body aircraft deliveries (17 new aircraft) scheduled in that year. Amounts are not adjusted for any potential changes in the delivery schedule of the Boeing 737 MAX aircraft. Financing may be necessary to satisfy the Company's capital commitments for its firm order aircraft and other related capital expenditures. The Company has backstop financing commitments available from certain of its aircraft manufacturers for a limited number of its future aircraft deliveries, subject to certain customary conditions. See Note 11 to the financial statements included in Part I, Item 1 of this report for additional information on aircraft financing. As of September 30, 2019, a substantial portion of the Company's assets, principally aircraft, certain route authorities and airport slots, was pledged under various loan and other agreements. We must sustain our profitability and/or access the capital markets to meet our significant long-term debt and finance lease obligations and future commitments for capital expenditures, including the acquisition of aircraft and related spare engines. Credit Ratings. As of the filing date of this report, UAL and United had the following corporate credit ratings: S&P, Moody's, Fitch UAL BB, Ba2, BB The credit agency does not issue corporate credit ratings for subsidiary entities. These credit ratings are below investment grade levels; however, the Company has been able to secure financing with investment grade credit ratings for certain enhanced equipment trust certificates and term loans. Downgrades from current rating levels, among other things, could restrict the availability and/or increase the cost of future financing for the Company. Sources and Uses of Cash Operating Activities. Cash flows provided by operations were $5.7 billion for the nine months ended September 30, 2019 compared to $5.0 billion in the same period in 2018. The increase is primarily attributable to an increase in operating income which was $3.4 billion for the first nine months of 2019 as compared to $2.6 billion in the same period in 2018. Investing Activities. Capital expenditures were approximately $3.3 billion and $2.5 billion in the nine months ended September 30, 2019 and 2018, respectively. Capital expenditures for the nine months ended September 30, 2019 were primarily attributable to additions of new aircraft, aircraft improvements, and increases in facility and information technology assets. Financing Activities. During the nine months ended September 30, 2019, the Company made debt and finance lease payments of $831 million. In the nine months ended September 30, 2019, United received and recorded $1.1 billion of proceeds as debt from the EETC pass-through trusts established in February and September 2019. See Note 11 to the financial statements included in Part I, Item 1 of this report for additional information. In the nine months ended September 30, 2019, United received and recorded $350 million of proceeds from the 4.875% Senior Notes due January 15, 2025. Share Repurchase Programs. In the three and nine months ended September 30, 2019, UAL repurchased approximately 4.1 million and 16.8 million shares, respectively, of UAL common stock in open market transactions for $0.4 billion and $1.4 billion, respectively. On July 15, 2019, UAL's Board of Directors authorized a new $3.0 billion share repurchase program to acquire UAL's common stock. As of September 30, 2019, the Company had approximately $3.3 billion remaining to purchase shares under its December 2017 and July 2019 share repurchase programs. UAL may repurchase shares through the open market, privately negotiated transactions, block trades or accelerated share repurchase transactions from time to time in accordance with applicable securities laws. UAL will repurchase shares of UAL common stock subject to prevailing market conditions, and may discontinue such repurchases at any time. See Part II, Item 2, Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities and Use of Proceeds of this report for additional information. Commitments, Contingencies and Liquidity Matters. As described in the 2018 Annual Report, the Company's liquidity may be adversely impacted by a variety of factors, including, but not limited to, pension funding obligations, reserve requirements associated with credit card processing agreements, guarantees, commitments and contingencies. See the 2018 Annual Report and Notes 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 and 11 to the financial statements contained in Part I, Item 1 of this report for additional information. Our actual results could differ materially from these forward-looking statements due to numerous factors including, without limitation, the following: our ability to execute our strategic operating plan, including our growth, revenue-generating and cost-control initiatives; general economic conditions (including interest rates, foreign currency exchange rates, investment or credit market conditions, crude oil prices, costs of aircraft fuel and energy refining capacity in relevant markets); risks of doing business globally, including instability and political developments that may impact our operations in certain countries; demand for travel and the impact that global economic and political conditions have on customer travel patterns; our capacity decisions and the capacity decisions of our competitors; competitive pressures on pricing and on demand; changes in aircraft fuel prices; disruptions in our supply of aircraft fuel; our ability to cost-effectively hedge against increases in the price of aircraft fuel, if we decide to do so; the effects of any technology failures or cybersecurity breaches; disruptions to services provided by third-party service providers; potential reputational or other impact from adverse events involving our aircraft or operations, the aircraft or operations of our regional carriers or our code share partners or the aircraft or operations of another airline; our ability to attract and retain customers; the effects of any terrorist attacks, international hostilities or other security events, or the fear of such events; the mandatory grounding of aircraft in our fleet; disruptions to our regional network; the impact of regulatory, investigative and legal proceedings and legal compliance risks; the success of our investments in other airlines, including in other parts of the world; industry consolidation or changes in airline alliances; the ability of other air carriers with whom we have alliances or partnerships to provide the services contemplated by the respective arrangements with such carriers; costs associated with any modification or termination of our aircraft orders; disruptions in the availability of aircraft, parts or support from our suppliers; our ability to maintain satisfactory labor relations and the results of any collective bargaining agreement process with our union groups; any disruptions to operations due to any potential actions by our labor groups; labor costs; an outbreak of a disease that affects travel demand or travel behavior; the impact of any management changes; extended interruptions or disruptions in service at major airports where we operate; U.S. or foreign governmental legislation, regulation and other actions (including Open Skies agreements, environmental regulations and the United Kingdom's withdrawal from the European Union); the seasonality of the airline industry; weather conditions; the costs and availability of aviation and other insurance; the costs and availability of financing; our ability to maintain adequate liquidity; our ability to comply with the terms of our various financing arrangements; our ability to realize the full value of our intangible assets and long-lived assets; and other risks and uncertainties set forth under Part I, Item 1A., Risk Factors, of our 2018 Annual Report, and Part II, Item 1A., Risk Factors, of this report, as well as other risks and uncertainties set forth from time to time in the reports we file with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the "SEC").