12-03-2019: Tenet Healthcare Inc. (THC): Activist Shareholder Intervention or Interferrence

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Recommendation

Tenet Healthcare Inc.

Tenet Healthcare Inc. is a very large Texas-based $18 billion in annual revenues healthcare insurance company. In 2017, a large activist shareholder put pressure on the company to sell itself, possibly to United Healthcare which was interested, because of what was considered poor management and cost control. That activist was Glennview Capital Management. Subsequently there were extensive changes in management including the top CEO, and Glennview has been an active acquirer of the stock, making this a rare instance where an American stock has positive insider buying.

Tenet reports in three major segments, hospitals, ambulatory care, and "Conifer." The company has provided guidance that it intends to spin off Conifer by late 2021, even though Conifer is a major contributor to revenues. The company has also been wheeling and dealing selling and acquiring assets, but mostly selling off assets.

The company has significant contracts with healthcare provider networks including Aetna, Cigna, Blue Cross, and others.

The company has been in trouble in the past for overbilling practices, but has largely recovered fromt that after the 1990's, only to get involved in another scandal of performing unncessary surgeries.

Researchers in particular but also analysts are mostly negative on the stock. But Glennview purchases have been pushing the share price higher and higher. The company has a huge debt load and negative financial fundamentals according to the Zenith Index. The stock chart looks a bit "toppy" and could heel over. It is a channeling stock at the very top of a longstanding wide trading range.

One particular news item investors should pay attention, and that is the effect of political elections on healthcare stocks. There is confusion on this in our opinion, with the election of Trump seemingly benefitting such stocks but anything that threatens Obamacare extremely negative for them. Deregulation promoted by Republicans is beneficial to stocks in general along with tax breaks, but while candidates like Warren vow to go after big healthcare insurance corporations, any expansion of the Affordable Healthcare Act that would "come with" is considered beneficial to healthcare insurance companies.

Our assessment of Tenet is overall negative. Often when a capital management corporation steps in to manage, things which made a corporation great find themselves lost in attempts to increase profits at the expensive of quality of services. 



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Under current market conditions, a Zenith Index Score of 1.20 or above is required for a positive rating on this factor. 1.21 -1.30 is considered acceptable, 1.30-1.40 is considered strong and
> 1.40 is considered exceptionally strong. Accounting statements in this section often contain mistakes, especially in earlier years' totals, but data is deemed sufficient for us to give a rating. More accurate financial statements follow in the next section.

Tenet Healthcare Corporation (THC)                        Exchange: NYSE
1445 Ross Avenue
Suite 1400                       Sector: Healthcare
Dallas, TX 75202                 Industry: Medical Care Facilities

Tenet Healthcare Corporation operates as a diversified healthcare
services company. The company operates in three segments: Hospital
Operations and Other, Ambulatory Care, and Conifer. Its general
hospitals offer acute care services, operating and recovery rooms,
radiology and respiratory therapy services, clinical laboratories, and
pharmacies. The company also provides intensive and critical care, and
coronary care units; physical therapy, orthopedic, oncology, and
outpatient services; cardiothoracic surgery, neonatal intensive care,
and neurosurgery services; quaternary care in heart, liver, kidney, and
bone marrow transplants areas; tertiary and quaternary pediatric, and
burn services; and limb-salvaging vascular procedures, acute level 1
trauma services, intravascular stroke care, minimally invasive cardiac
valve replacement, imaging technology, and telemedicine access for
various medical specialties. In addition, it operates ambulatory surgery
and urgent care centers, imaging centers, and surgical hospitals; and
offers healthcare business process services in the areas of hospital and
physician revenue cycle management, as well as value-based care
solutions to healthcare systems, individual hospitals, physician
practices, self-insured organizations, health plans, and other entities.
As of December 31, 2018, the company operated 68 hospitals, 23 surgical
hospitals, and approximately 475 outpatient centers, as well as 255
ambulatory surgery, 36 urgent care, and 23 imaging centers in the United
States. Tenet Healthcare Corporation was founded in 1967 and is
headquartered in Dallas, Texas.

Last Trade:  32.64                           52-Week Range:  33.31 -  16.61
Employees: 90,090                            Avg.Volume:   1,341,543 Shares

Corporate Governance:
Pillar scores are Audit: 1; Board: 2; Shareholder Rights: 1; Compensation: 2.
         (A lower number means less governance risk.)

EPS: -2.32    Dividend Amount: $ 0.00          Yield:  0.00%
             Ex-Dividend Date: Mar 12, 2000    Payout Ratio:   0.00

Key Statistics:

    Trailing P/E:   0.00              Forward P/E (est.):  11.21
                                           Target Price:  30.95

Qrtly Stock Price Growth (yoy):  31.56%               Beta:   1.66
Qrtly S&P Index   Growth (yoy):   1.80%        Short Ratio:   8.15%
    Qrtly Revenue Growth (yoy):  52.00%         Shares Out:  103890000
   Qrtly Earnings Growth (yoy):   0.00%

          Book Value:  -3.29                    Debt/Equity: 816.55%
    Price/Book Value:   0.00        Operating Profit Margin:  10.95%
         Price/Sales:   0.19                  Profit Margin:  -1.31%
         Market Cap:   3,436,000,000       Return on Equity:   5.71%
    Enterprise Value:  21,420,000,000      Return on Assets:   5.49%

    Operating Cash Flow:      1,049,000
         Free Cash Flow:       -200,000



Annual Income Statement:                          (All numbers in thousands)
  Period Ending                             12/31/2018  12/31/2017  12/31/2016

  Total Revenue                             18,313,000  19,179,000  19,621,000
  Cost of Revenue                           12,440,000  13,229,000  13,330,000
  Gross Profit                               5,873,000   5,950,000   6,291,000

Operating Expenses:
  Research & Development                             0           0           0
  Selling, General & Administrative                  0  12,359,000  12,480,000
  Total Operating Expenses                   4,256,000   4,561,000   4,859,000

Operating Income or Loss                     1,617,000   1,389,000   1,432,000

Income from Continuing Operations:
  Total Other Income/Expenses Net               26,000    -462,000    -205,000
  Interest Expense                           1,004,000   1,028,000     979,000
  Income Before Taxes                          639,000    -101,000     248,000
  Income Tax Expense                           176,000     219,000      67,000

Net Income from Continuing Op.s                463,000    -320,000     181,000

Non-recurring Events:
  Extraordinary Items                          352,000     384,000     373,000
  Net Income                                   111,000    -704,000    -192,000

Net Income Avail to Common Shares              111,000    -704,000    -192,000



Annual Cash Flow Statement:                   (All numbers in thousands)
  Period Ending                         12/31/2018    12/31/2017    12/31/2016

  Net Income                               463,000      -320,000       181,000

Operating Activities:
  Depreciation                             802,000       870,000       850,000
  Changes in Accounts Recv'bls            -134,000    -1,448,000    -1,604,000
  Changes in Liabilities                   432,000       493,000      -317,000
  Changes in Inventories                    17,000       -35,000       -83,000
  Changes in other Oper'g Acts            -374,000    -1,505,000    -1,706,000

Total Cash Flow f Operations             1,049,000     1,200,000       558,000

Investing Activities:
  Capital Exenditures                     -617,000      -707,000      -875,000
  Investments                             -240,000      -118,000      -156,000
  Other Cash Flows fr Investing                  0       -17,000       -34,000

Total Cash Flows from Investing           -115,000        21,000      -430,000

Financing Activities:
  Dividends Paid                                 0             0             0
  Sale of Purchase of Stock                      0             0             0
  Other Cash Flows fr Financing           -861,000      -989,000       -34,000

Total Cash Flows from Financing         -1,134,000    -1,326,000       232,000

Change in Cash & Cash Equiv.              -200,000      -105,000       360,000



Annual Balance Sheets:                              (All Numbers in Thousands)
  Period Ending                          12/31/2018    12/31/2017    12/31/2016
Current Assets:
  Cash & Cash Equivalents                   611,000       716,000       356,000
  Short Term Investments                          0             0             0
  Net Receivables                         2,616,000     2,897,000     2,704,000
  Inventory                                 289,000       326,000       309,000
  Other Current Assets                    1,035,000     1,285,000     1,245,000
  Total Current Assets                    5,573,000     5,257,000     5,171,000

  Long-Term Investments                  11,963,000    13,231,000    12,473,000
  Property, Plant & Equipt                7,224,000     8,257,000     8,150,000
  Goodwill                                7,018,000     7,425,000     6,970,000
  Intangible Assets                       1,766,000     1,845,000     1,675,000
  Other Assets                               32,000        28,000        28,000

Total Assets                             23,385,000    24,701,000    23,682,000

Current Liabilities:
  Accounts Payable                        1,175,000     1,329,000     1,380,000
  Current Portion LT Debt                   256,000       218,000       499,000
  Other Current Liabilities               1,707,000     1,243,000     1,245,000
  Total Current Liabilities               4,332,000     4,034,000      4,308,000

  Long Term Debt                         14,791,000    15,064,000    14,383,000
  Other Liabilities                         631,000       610,000       594,000

Total Liabilities                        22,846,000    23,619,000    22,724,000

Stockholder Equity:
  Common Stock                                7,000         7,000         7,000
  Retained Earnings                      -2,390,000    -1,742,000    -1,550,000
  Capital Surplus                          -204,000      -258,000      -164,000
  Total Stockholder Equity                 -147,000       417,000       691,000


Tenet Healthcare Corporation (THC)          [Indices near +3.0, near zero,
                                            or < zero bear special attention.]
P/E Ratio Tests:
P/E Ratio < 28?            0.0000          P/E Ratio > 5?             0.0000
P/E Ratio Vs Growth Rate:  0.0000          Forward P/E Ratio < 28?    2.4978
Price/Sales Ratio < 2.3?   3.0000          Inventory/Sales < 5%?      3.0000
Sales < $1 Billion?        0.0546          Operating Margin < 7.5%?   0.6849

Balance Sheet Tests:
Debt/Equity < 0.40?        0.0490          Long-Term Debt Service:    0.0364
LTD Being Reduced?         0.0000          Short-Term Debt Service:   0.0000
Current Ratio > 2?         0.6432          Working Capital >= 1.5?    1.1815
Leverage Ratio < 20%?      0.0754          Debt/Assets < 1?           1.5810
Quick Ratio > 1?           3.0000          Inventory Turnover > 1?    0.0679
Share Equity Increase:     0.2510          Market Cap.< 1.5 Billion?  0.4366
                                           Intangibles < 3% Assets?   0.0799
Income Tests:
Profit Margin < 7.5%?     -0.1747          EPS Annual Growth > 10%?  -0.6342
Dividend Yield > 2.0%?     0.0000          EPS 3-yr Growth > 15?     -0.2595
Enterprise Value/Revenue   0.1884          EPS Growth Consistent?     0.0000
Enterprise Value/EBITDA:   3.0000          Collection < 45 days?      0.8631
EPS Qrtly Growth > 10%?    0.0000          Gross Pft/Cur. LTD > 1?    3.0000
                                           Borrowing Int. Rate < 6%?  0.8839
Stock Performance Tests:
Volatility > 25%?          2.0054          % Held by Insiders < 5%?   1.9763
Beta > 1.25?               1.3280          % Held by Institut. < 50?  0.4788
50 Da MA > 200 Da MA?      0.4688          % Held by Institut. > 30?  3.0000
52-Wk Change vs. S&P 500:  0.6069          Short Ratio > 5?           1.6300
Price/Book Value < 3?      3.0000          Short % of Float > 20?     0.8555
Return on Assets > 17%?    0.3229          Average Volume > 100,000?  3.0000

Cash Flow Tests:
Oper. C.F. > Lever'd C.F: -3.0000          Positive Free Cash Flow?  -1.0000
Positive Oper. Cash Flow?  3.0000          Price to C.F.Ratio < 14?:  3.0000
                                           Cash Flow / Assets > 10%?  0.9827

THC    Tenet Healthcare Corporation        Overall Zenith Index:      0.9234


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Financial Statements

TENET HEALTHCARE CORP  (THC)                INCOME STATEMENT

Fiscal year ends in December. USD in thousan         2014-12         2015-12         2016-12         2017-12         2018-12             TTM           

Revenue                                           16,615,000      18,634,000      19,621,000      19,179,000      18,313,000      18,292,000
Cost of revenue                                   11,502,000      12,771,000      13,330,000      13,229,000      12,440,000      12,443,000
Gross profit                                       5,113,000       5,863,000       6,291,000       5,950,000       5,873,000       5,849,000


Operating expenses
Other operating expenses                           4,010,000       4,483,000       4,859,000       4,561,000       4,256,000       4,260,000
Total operating expenses                           4,010,000       4,483,000       4,859,000       4,561,000       4,256,000       4,260,000

Operating income                                   1,103,000       1,380,000       1,432,000       1,389,000       1,617,000       1,589,000
Interest Expense                                     754,000         912,000         979,000       1,028,000       1,004,000         988,000
Other income (expense)                              -202,000        -324,000        -205,000        -462,000          26,000        -362,000
Income before taxes                                  147,000         144,000         248,000        -101,000         639,000         239,000
Provision for income taxes                            49,000          68,000          67,000         219,000         176,000         123,000
Net income from continuing operations                 98,000          76,000         181,000        -320,000         463,000         116,000
Net income from discontinuing ops                    -22,000           2,000          -5,000               0           3,000          11,000
Other                                                -64,000        -218,000        -368,000        -384,000        -355,000        -366,000
Net income                                            12,000        -140,000        -192,000        -704,000         111,000        -239,000
Net income available to common shareholders           12,000        -140,000        -192,000        -704,000         111,000        -239,000

Earnings per share
Basic                                                   0.12           -1.41           -1.93           -7.00            1.09           -2.31 
Diluted                                                 0.12           -1.41           -1.93           -7.00            1.07           -2.31 

Weighted average shares outstanding
Basic                                                 97,801          99,167          99,321         100,592         102,110         103,011
Diluted                                              100,287          99,167          99,321         100,592         103,881         103,415

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


TENET HEALTHCARE CORP  (THC)                BALANCE SHEET

Fiscal year ends in December. USD in thousan         2014-12         2015-12         2016-12         2017-12         2018-12             

Assets

Current assets

Cash

Total cash                                           193,000         356,000         716,000         611,000         411,000

Receivables                                        2,404,000       2,704,000       2,897,000       2,616,000       2,595,000
Inventories                                          276,000         309,000         326,000         289,000         305,000
Deferred income taxes                                747,000               0               0               0               0
Other current assets                               1,097,000       1,802,000       1,318,000       2,057,000       1,325,000
Total current assets                               4,717,000       5,171,000       5,257,000       5,573,000       4,636,000

Non-current assets

Property, plant and equipment
Gross property, plant and equipment               12,399,000      12,473,000      13,231,000      11,963,000      12,369,000
Accumulated Depreciation                          -4,478,000      -4,323,000      -4,974,000      -4,739,000      -5,221,000
Net property, plant and equipment                  7,921,000       8,150,000       8,257,000       7,224,000       7,148,000

Equity and other investments                         133,000         876,000         984,000       1,014,000         996,000
Goodwill                                           3,913,000       6,970,000       7,425,000       7,018,000       7,281,000
Intangible assets                                  1,278,000       1,675,000       1,845,000       1,766,000       1,731,000
Deferred income taxes                                116,000         776,000         871,000         455,000         312,000
Other long-term assets                                63,000          64,000          62,000         335,000         305,000
Total non-current assets                          13,424,000      18,511,000      19,444,000      17,812,000      17,773,000

Total assets                                      18,141,000      23,682,000      24,701,000      23,385,000      22,409,000 

Liabilities and stockholders' equity

Liabilities

Current liabilities
Short-term debt                                      112,000         127,000         191,000         146,000         182,000
Accounts payable                                   1,179,000       1,380,000       1,329,000       1,175,000       1,207,000
Accrued liabilities                                  194,000         499,000         218,000         256,000         240,000
Other current liabilities                          2,092,000       2,302,000       2,296,000       2,755,000       2,228,000
Total current liabilities                          3,577,000       4,308,000       4,034,000       4,332,000       3,857,000

Non-current liabilities
Long-term debt                                    11,695,000      14,383,000      15,064,000      14,791,000      14,644,000
Deferred taxes liabilities                                 0               0         279,000          36,000          36,000
Pensions and other benefits                          633,000         595,000         626,000         536,000         521,000
Minority interest                                    134,000         267,000         665,000         686,000         806,000
Other long-term liabilities                        1,451,000       3,438,000       3,616,000       3,151,000       2,664,000
Total non-current liabilities                     13,913,000      18,683,000      20,250,000      19,200,000      18,671,000

Total liabilities                                 17,490,000      22,991,000      24,284,000      23,532,000      22,528,000 

Stockholders' equity

Common stock                                           7,000           7,000           7,000           7,000           7,000
Additional paid-in capital                         4,614,000       4,815,000       4,827,000       4,859,000       4,747,000
Retained earnings                                 -1,410,000      -1,550,000      -1,742,000      -2,390,000      -2,236,000
Treasury stock                                    -2,378,000      -2,417,000      -2,417,000      -2,419,000      -2,414,000
Accumulated other comprehensive income              -182,000        -164,000        -258,000        -204,000        -223,000
Total stockholders' equity                           651,000         691,000         417,000        -147,000        -119,000
Total liabilities and stockholders' equity        18,141,000      23,682,000      24,701,000      23,385,000      22,409,000

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


TENET HEALTHCARE CORP  (THC)                Statement of CASH FLOW

Fiscal year ends in December. USD in thousan         2014-12         2015-12         2016-12         2017-12         2018-12             TTM           

Cash Flows From Operating Activities
Net income                                           111,000          75,000         182,000        -320,000         462,000         113,000
Depreciation & amortization                          849,000         797,000         850,000         870,000         802,000         827,000
Investment/asset impairment charges                  153,000         318,000         202,000         541,000         209,000         187,000
Deferred income taxes                                 30,000          42,000          41,000         200,000         150,000          97,000
Stock based compensation                              51,000          69,000          68,000          59,000          46,000          46,000
Change in working capital                         -1,658,000      -1,638,000      -1,706,000      -1,505,000        -374,000        -449,000
Accounts receivable                               -1,896,000      -1,632,000      -1,604,000      -1,448,000        -134,000        -272,000
Inventory                                           -314,000        -130,000         -83,000         -35,000          17,000        -154,000
Other working capital                                552,000         124,000         -19,000         -22,000        -257,000         -23,000
Other non-cash items                               1,151,000       1,363,000         921,000       1,355,000        -246,000         142,000
Net cash provided by operating activities            687,000       1,026,000         558,000       1,200,000       1,049,000         963,000

Cash Flows From Investing Activities
Investments in property, plant, and equipmen        -933,000        -842,000        -875,000        -707,000        -617,000        -705,000
Acquisitions, net                                   -422,000        -525,000         417,000         709,000         303,000         -31,000
Sales/Maturities of investments                       31,000          60,000          62,000          36,000         199,000          86,000
Other investing activities                             2,000         -10,000         -34,000         -17,000               0         -11,000
Net cash used for investing activities            -1,322,000      -1,317,000        -430,000          21,000        -115,000        -661,000

Cash Flows From Financing Activities
Debt issued                                        3,853,000       5,753,000       2,655,000       4,765,000         973,000       8,326,000
Debt repayment                                    -3,113,000      -4,864,000      -2,049,000      -5,109,000      -1,262,000      -8,483,000
Common stock repurchased                                   0         -40,000               0               0               0               0
Other financing activities                           -25,000        -395,000        -374,000        -982,000        -845,000        -331,000
Net cash provided by (used for) financing            715,000         454,000         232,000      -1,326,000      -1,134,000        -488,000

Net change in cash                                    80,000         163,000         360,000        -105,000        -200,000        -186,000
Cash at beginning of period                          113,000         193,000         356,000         716,000         611,000         500,000
Cash at end of period                                193,000         356,000         716,000         611,000         411,000         314,000

Free Cash Flow
Operating cash flow                                  687,000       1,026,000         558,000       1,200,000       1,049,000         963,000
Capital expenditure                                 -933,000        -842,000        -875,000        -707,000        -617,000        -705,000
Free cash flow                                      -246,000         184,000        -317,000         493,000         432,000         258,000
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________





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Average to Current P/E Ratios
              (THC)     Tenet Healthcare Corp.

                               2014    2015    2016    2017    2018

          Annual Earnings:     0.12   -1.41   -1.93   -7.00    1.07
Average Price During Year:    49.09   46.92   26.58   16.70   26.96

                P/E Ratio:   409.08   33.28   13.77    2.39   25.19

 Average 5-Year P/E Ratio  =  96.74
             Current Price =  32.64

Previous 5 Quarter Earnings:  -0.09   -0.05   -0.18    0.16   -2.24

          Current Annualized (Last Four Quarters) Earnings =  -2.26
                                                           ________
                                 Average PE / Current PE =    -6.70
                                                           --------

                                      ...a number above 1.00 is good
                                                1.00 or below is bad


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Institutional Ownership:

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Sentiment

sentiment

Zenith uses the "sentiment" score above or below 50 to award a positive or negative point in the Decision Matrix.

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As the short interest rises as a percentage of average daily share volume (Days to Cover), this is considered a measure of negative sentiment. Similarly, a decrease in that percentage is considered positive sentiment.

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Channeling Potential

 
The summary below includes a value for `Degree,' which refers on a
scale of 1 to 10 the range of a channel in the period under consi-
deration compared to the total range of price movement. It also looks
for the last closing price to be within the channel, otherwise zeroed.
The `Index' is the `Degree' weighted for volatility.  Generally, the
the higher the index, the more suitable is the stock for trading as
a `rolling stock' between channel high and low points.

Results for TENET HEALTHCARE INC.:
Symbol? THC
Total Months Available:  25
       Months in Cycle?   4

Months Covered by Periods:  12

Period 1           Period 2          Period 3
   H1      L1        H2      L2        H3      L3
  30.84   16.60     31.64   17.18     33.08   18.88

RANGE   =  33.08  TO   16.60            Close =  32.20
CHANNEL =  30.84  TO   18.88           Degree =   7
Volatility =  37.14%                    Index =  26
Channel Chart



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MACD Histogram Divergence

The theory is that connecting the two most recent peaks or valleys of the MACD histogram will signal the direction of the next major move.



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Intraday Chart

2 Days:



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Val Idea

2 out of 12 favorable, (negative opinion.)

Val Idea
Val Idea


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Stock Consultant

Stock Consultant Stock Consultant


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Point & Figure Chart

P & F Chart


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Wall Street Analyzer



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Marketspace Chart

Marketspace Chart



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Time Series Forecast

Time Series 1 Time Series 2


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Neural Network Prediction

"Neurostock" can only track long trades. Therefore its performance, as tracked by itself on stocks which are consistently falling, may not appear as good as it could if each "sell" signal were a "short sale."

Neural Chart
Heading
Neural Trades Neural Prediction



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Ultimate Trading Systems

2 out of 3 of the ultimate systems favor a downmove.


System Below:
Short term outlook: Positive: Bright Green, Negative: Bright Red
Long term outlook: Postive: Dark Green, Negative: Dark Red.




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Recommendation

Decision Weighting Factors
FactorsWeighted Points
News - 1
Comparison - 1
Industry + 1
Bond Issue + 1
Zenith Index - 1
Non-GAAP vs. GAAP Earnings + 1
Cash Flow - 1
Average to Current P/E - 1
Ratios - 1
Intrinsic Value DCF + 1
Fair Value Estimator - 1
Projected Earnings + 1
Research Reports - 1
Analysts - 1
Executive Perquisites - 1
Insider Activity + 1
Institutional Activity + 1
Management Reporting + 1
Short Interest + 1
Sentiment + 1
Standard & Poor's - 1
MACD Histogram Divergence - 1
Val Idea - 1
Stock Consultant - 1
Point & Figure + 1
Wall Street Analyzer + 1
Marketspace Chart + 1
Time Series Chart - 1
Neural Network - 1
Stock Options + 1
Ultimate Trading Systems - 1
Total - 2
Place 905 shares of Tenet Healthcare, Inc. (THC) on the Active List.