09-23-2017: San Juan Basin Royalty Trust (SJT): Weak Natural Gas Prices Hold Back Payout

(WAIT FOR PAGE TO LOAD COMPLETELY BEFORE LINKS WORK.)

Corporate Webpages
Company Profile
News
Comparison with Peers
Bond Issue
Zenith Index
Financial Statements
Avg. P/E to Current P/E
Financial Ratios
Market Grader
Intrinsic Value (Disc. CashFlow)
Tangible Book Value
Projected Earnings
Research Reports
Analysts' Opinions
Insider Activity
Institutional Activity
Sentiment
Short Interest
Management's Discussion
Moving Average Chart
Right Time Study
Channel Potential
MACD Histogram
Intraday Chart
Val Idea
Stock Consultant
Point & Figure Chart
Wall Street Analyzer
Marketspace Chart
Time Series Forecast
Neural Network Prediction
Stock Options
Ultimate Trading Systems
Recommendation

San Juan Basin Royalty Trust

Compass Bank is the 31st largest bank in the U.S. and was acquired by the second-largest bank in Spain under which it is now owned. Compass collects and distributes net proceeds for San Juan Basin Royalty Trust (SJT). SJT is an NYSE-listed royalty trust which leases 119,000 acres of natural gas producing properties in Northwestern New Mexico. It has over 800 wells.

These oil and natural gas interests (99% natural gas) were owned by Southland Royalty Company, the predecessor to Burlington Resources Oil and Gas Company LP. It operates under the laws of Texas where it is headquartered in Fort Worth. So the relationships do get a bit complicated.

We gave the stock a negative news rating because it appears to us from the stock price history that resources are gradually being depleted. Still, the stock pays out a healthy cash distribution every month to shareholders as well as a dividend amounting to roughly 10% of share price. This may be in danger however, because the payout exceeds the revenues incoming, a trend that is not sustainable.

Institutions are net sellers. The stock chart suggests this is a "rubber band stock." It is very reactive, and with such a large payout is very sensitive to payout ex-dividend dates. The last ex-dividend date was August 29th. However, follow the advice in one of the "Ultimate Trading Systems" presented here which counsels to "Look for a downturn in price before getting too bearish here."

Information on executive salaries and insider trading was hard to obtain. Zero compensation for executives is "suspicious" at best, so we gave the stock a negative rating there.

Other than that, this stock is very subject to natural gas prices, which are historically-low for the foreseeable future, and dominating the revenue picture. The industry group is weak, but this stock has been punished relative to its peers and may play "catch-up."



[Home]
Corporate Wepages

Trade Mark
01
2

3

4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14



[Home]
Company Profile

Profile
Profile



[Home]
News

Click Here for News Archives



[Home]
Comparison

Comparison

Groups 1
Groups 2
Groups 3


Companies 1

Similar Companies Performance:

55 56
57 58
59 60


[Home]
Bond Issue

22



[Home]
Zenith Index

Under current market conditions, a Zenith Index Score of 1.20 or above is required for a positive rating on this factor. 1.21 -1.30 is considered acceptable, 1.30-1.40 is considered strong and
> 1.40 is considered exceptionally strong. Accounting statements in this section often contain mistakes, especially in earlier years' totals, but data is deemed sufficient for us to give a rating. More accurate financial statements follow in the next section.

San Juan Basin Royalty Trust (SJT)                        Exchange: NYSE
300 West 7th Street
Suite B                          Sector: Basic Materials
Fort Worth, TX 76102             Industry:Independent Oil & Gas

San Juan Basin Royalty Trust operates as an express trust in Texas. The
company has a 75% net overriding royalty interest carved out of
Burlington-Ęs oil and gas interests (the subject interests) in properties
located in the San Juan Basin in northwestern New Mexico. The subject
interests consist of working interests, royalty interests, overriding
royalty interests, and other contractual rights in 119,000 net producing
acres in San Juan, Rio Arriba, and Sandoval Counties of northwestern New
Mexico, as well as 833.7 net wells. Compass Bank serves as the trustee
of the San Juan Basin Royalty Trust. The company was founded in 1980 and
is based in Fort Worth, Texas.

Last Trade:   7.89                           52-Week Range:   8.00 -   5.51
Employees:                                   Avg.Volume:     145,135 Shares

Corporate Governance:
Pillar scores are Audit: N/A; Board: N/A; Shareholder Rights: N/A; Compensation:
 N/A.
         (A lower number means less governance risk.)

EPS:  0.55    Dividend Amount: $ 0.79          Yield: 10.12%
             Ex-Dividend Date: Aug 29, 2017    Payout Ratio: 100.00

Key Statistics:

    Trailing P/E:  14.30                      Target Price:  20.50

Qrtly Stock Price Growth (yoy):  30.20%               Beta:  -1.00
Qrtly S&P Index   Growth (yoy): 318.40%        Short Ratio:   1.76%
    Qrtly Revenue Growth (yoy):  15.95%         Shares Out:  46610000
   Qrtly Earnings Growth (yoy):   0.00%

          Book Value:   0.16                    Debt/Equity:   0.00%
    Price/Book Value:  51.10        Operating Profit Margin:  92.29%
         Price/Sales:  13.18                  Profit Margin:  92.24%
         Market Cap:     366,690,000       Return on Equity: 330.70%
    Enterprise Value:               0      Return on Assets: 165.27%

    Operating Cash Flow:              0
         Free Cash Flow:              0



Annual Income Statement:                          (All numbers in thousands)
  Period Ending                             12/31/2016  12/31/2015  12/31/2014

  Total Revenue                                 16,792      19,437      61,508
  Cost of Revenue                                    0           0           0
  Gross Profit                                  16,792      19,437      61,508

Operating Expenses:
  Research & Development                             0           0           0
  Selling, General & Administrative              3,597       2,519       1,710
  Non-Recurring Expenses                             0           0           0
  Other Operating Expenses                           0           0           0
  Total Operating Expenses                           0           0           0

Operating Income or Loss                        13,194      16,918      59,797

Income from Continuing Operations:
  Total Other Income/Expenses Net                  735          82          76
  Earnings Before Interest & Taxes              13,929      17,000      59,873
  Interest Expense                                   0           0           0
  Income Before Taxes                           13,929      17,000      59,873
  Income Tax Expense                                 0           0           0
  Minority Interest                                  0           0           0

Net Income from Continuing Op.s                 13,929      17,000      59,873

Non-recurring Events:
  Discontinued Operations                            0           0           0
  Extraordinary Items                                0           0           0
  Effect of Accounting Changes                       0           0           0
  Other Items                                        0           0           0
  Net Income                                    13,929      17,000      59,873
  Preferred Stock & Other Adjustments                0           0           0

Net Income Avail to Common Shares               13,929      17,000      59,873



Annual Cash Flow Statement:                   (All numbers in thousands)
  Period Ending                         12/31/2016    12/31/2015    12/31/2014

  Net Income                                13,929        17,000        59,873

Operating Activities:
  Depreciation                                   0             0             0
  Adjustments to Net Income                      0             0             0
  Changes in Accounts Recv'bls                   0             0             0
  Changes in Liabilities                         0             0             0
  Changes in Investories                         0             0             0
  Changes in other Oper'g Acts                   0             0             0

Total Cash Flow f Operations                     0             0             0

Investing Activities:
  Capital Exenditures                            0             0             0
  Investments                                    0             0             0
  Other Cash Flows fr Investing                  0             0             0

Total Cash Flows from Investing                  0             0             0

Financing Activities:
  Dividends Paid                                 0             0             0
  Sale of Purchase of Stock                      0             0             0
  Net Borrowings                                 0             0             0
  Other Cash Flows fr Financing                  0             0             0

Total Cash Flows from Financing                  0             0             0

  Effect of Exchange Rate Chg                    0             0             0

Change in Cash & Cash Equiv.                     0             0             0



Annual Balance Sheets:                              (All Numbers in Thousands)
  Period Ending                          12/31/2016    12/31/2015    12/31/2014
Current Assets:
  Cash & Cash Equivalents                     3,933         1,819         4,011
  Short Term Investments                          0             0             0
  Net Receivables                                 0             0             0
  Inventory                                       0             0             0
  Other Current Assets                            0             0             0
  Total Current Assets                        3,933         1,819         4,011

  Long-Term Investments                           0             0             0
  Property, Plant & Equipt                        0             0             0
  Goodwill                                        0             0             0
  Intangible Assets                           7,784         8,724         9,363
  Accumulated Amortization                        0             0             0
  Other Assets                                    0             0             0
  Deferred LT Asset Charges                       0             0             0

Total Assets                                 11,717        10,544        13,374

Current Liabilities:
  Accounts Payable                            2,933         1,283         3,825
  Current Portion LT Debt                         0             0             0
  Other Current Liabilities                   1,000           536           186
  Total Current Liabilities                   3,933         1,819          4,011

  Long Term Debt                              2,933         1,283         3,825
  Other Liabilities                               0             0             0
  Deferred LT Liab. Charges                   1,000           536           186
  Minority Interest                               0             0             0
  Negative Goodwill                               0             0             0

Total Liabilities                             3,933         1,819         4,011

Stockholder Equity:
  Misc. Options, Warrants                         0             0             0
  Redeemable Preferred Stock                      0             0             0
  Preferred Stock                                 0             0             0
  Common Stock                                    0             0             0
  Retained Earnings                               0             0             0
  Treasury Stock                                  0             0             0
  Capital Surplus                                 0             0             0
  Other Stockhohlder Equity                       0             0             0
  Total Stockholder Equity                    7,784         8,724         9,363

Net Tangible Assets                               0             0             0



San Juan Basin Royalty Trust (SJT)          [Indices near +3.0, near zero,
                                            or < zero bear special attention.]
P/E Ratio Tests:
P/E Ratio < 28?            1.9580          P/E Ratio > 5?             1.0000
P/E Ratio Vs Growth Rate:  0.0000          Forward P/E Ratio < 28?    0.0000
Price/Sales Ratio < 2.3?   0.1745          Inventory/Sales < 5%?      1.0000
Sales < $1 Billion?        3.0000          Operating Margin < 7.5%?   0.0813

Balance Sheet Tests:
Debt/Equity < 0.40?        1.0000          Long-Term Debt Service:    3.0000
LTD Being Reduced?         0.0000          Short-Term Debt Service:   3.0000
Current Ratio > 2?         0.5000          Working Capital >= 1.5?    1.5200
Leverage Ratio < 20%?      3.0000          Debt/Assets < 1?           3.0000
Quick Ratio > 1?           3.0000          Inventory Turnover > 1?    1.0000
Share Equity Increase:     1.8241          Market Cap.< 1.5 Billion?  3.0000
                                           Intangibles < 3% Assets?   0.0452
Income Tests:
Profit Margin < 7.5%?      3.0000          EPS Annual Growth > 10%?   0.1220
Dividend Yield > 2.0%?     0.1976          EPS 3-yr Growth > 15?      0.6448
Enterprise Value/Revenue   3.0000          EPS Growth Consistent?    -2.0000
Enterprise Value/EBITDA:   3.0000          Collection < 45 days?      1.0000
EPS Qrtly Growth > 10%?    0.0000          Gross Pft/Cur. LTD > 1?    3.0000
                                           Borrowing Int. Rate < 6%?  3.0000
Stock Performance Tests:
Volatility > 25%?          1.2450          % Held by Insiders < 5%?   1.1655
Beta > 1.25?              -0.8000          % Held by Institut. < 50?  1.8169
50 Da MA > 200 Da MA?      0.0114          % Held by Institut. > 30?  0.9173
52-Wk Change vs. S&P 500:  1.8934          Short Ratio > 5?           0.3520
Price/Book Value < 3?      0.0608          Short % of Float > 20?     0.0240
Return on Assets > 17%?    3.0000          Average Volume > 100,000?  1.4513

Cash Flow Tests:
Oper. C.F. > Lever'd C.F:  0.0000          Positive Free Cash Flow?  -1.0000
Positive Oper. Cash Flow? -1.0000          Price to C.F.Ratio < 14?:  0.0000
                                           Cash Flow / Assets > 10%?  0.0000

SJT    San Juan Basin Royalty Trust        Overall Zenith Index:      1.1266


[Home]
Financial Statements

Income Statement:

Balance Sheet:

Cash Flow Statement:



[Home]
Average to Current P/E Ratios
              (SJT)     San Juan Basin Royalty Trust

                               2012    2013    2014    2015    2016

          Annual Earnings:     0.72    0.78    1.28    0.36    0.30
Average Price During Year:    16.71   15.68   18.17   11.07    5.82

                P/E Ratio:    23.21   20.10   14.20   30.76   19.41

 Average 5-Year P/E Ratio  =  21.54
             Current Price =  7.89

Previous 5 Quarter Earnings:   0.01    0.09    0.16    0.17    0.13

           Current Annualized (Last Four Quarters) Earnings =  .46
                                                           ________
                                 Average PE / Current PE =     1.26
                                                           --------

                                      ...a number above 1.00 is good
                                                1.00 or below is bad


[Home]
Financial Ratios

. . . . . . . . . . . . Lowest to Highest, Compared to Industry



[Home]
Market Grader

900
901 902 903 904 905 906 907 908 909 910



[Home]
Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Intrinsic Value by Discounted Cash Flow Method:

Intrinsic Value



[Home]
Book Value

Tangible Book Value:

Book Value



[Home]
Projected Earnings

Earnings Estimates



[Home]
Research Reports

Click Here for Research Reports



[Home]
Analysts' Opinions

Analysts' Opinion 1
Analysts' Opinion 2



[Home]
Insider Activity

Insiders Chart Insider Trades
Insider Trades
Executive Compensation



[Home]
Institutional Activity

Institutional Orders to Buy or Sell:

institutions 1
Ownership:

institutions 2


[Home]
Sentiment

sentiment

Zenith uses the "sentiment" score above or below 50 to award a positive or negative point in the Decision Matrix.

sentiment sentiment sentiment



[Home]
Short Interest Ratio

As the short interest rises as a percentage of average daily share volume (Days to Cover), this is considered a measure of negative sentiment. Similarly, a decrease in that percentage is considered positive sentiment.

short interest short interest


[Home]
Management's Discussion of Results of Operations Excerpts

Click Here for Management's Discussion Excerpts



[Home]
Moving Average Chart



[Home]
Right Time Study



[Home]
Channeling Potential

 
The summary below includes a value for `Degree,' which refers on a
scale of 1 to 10 the range of a channel in the period under consi-
deration compared to the total range of price movement. It also looks
for the last closing price to be within the channel, otherwise zeroed.
The `Index' is the `Degree' weighted for volatility.  Generally, the
the higher the index, the more suitable is the stock for trading as
a `rolling stock' between channel high and low points.

Results for SAN JUAN BASIN REALTY TRUST:
Symbol? SJT
Total Months Available:  45
       Months in Cycle?   4

Months Covered by Periods:  12

Period 1           Period 2          Period 3
   H1      L1        H2      L2        H3      L3
   7.11    5.33      8.00    6.26      7.82    6.04

RANGE   =   8.00  TO    5.33            Close =   7.77
CHANNEL =   7.11  TO    6.26           Degree =   3
Volatility =  10.94%                    Index =   3
Channel Chart



[Home]
MACD Histogram Divergence

The theory is that connecting the two most recent peaks or valleys of the MACD histogram will signal the direction of the next major move.



[Home]
Intraday Chart

2 Days:



[Home]
Val Idea

Val Idea


[Home]
Stock Consultant

Stock Consultant Stock Consultant


[Home]
Point & Figure Chart

P & F Chart


[Home]
Wall Street Analyzer




[Home]
Marketspace Chart

Marketspace Chart



[Home]
Time Series Forecast

Time Series 1 Time Series 2


[Home]
Neural Network Prediction

"Neurostock" can only track long trades. Therefore its performance, as tracked by itself on stocks which are consistently falling, may not appear as good as it could if each "sell" signal were a "short sale."

Neural Chart
Heading
Neural Trades Neural Prediction



[Home]
Ultimate Trading Systems

3 out of 3 of the ultimate systems favor an upmove.


System Below:
Short term outlook: Positive: Bright Green, Negative: Bright Red
Long term outlook: Postive: Dark Green, Negative: Dark Red.




[Home]
Recommendation

Decision Weighting Factors
FactorsWeighted Points
News - 1
Comparison + 1
Industry - 1
Bond Issue + 0
Zenith Index - 1
Non-GAAP vs. GAAP Earnings + 1
Cash Flow + 1
Average to Current P/E + 1
Ratios - 1
Market Grader + 1
Intrinsic Value DCF - 1
Tangible Book Value - 1
Projected Earnings - 1
Research Reports - 1
Analysts + 0
Executive Perquisites - 1
Insider Activity + 1
Institutional Activity - 1
Management Reporting + 1
Short Interest - 1
Sentiment + 1
Moving Average + 1
Right Time Study - 1
MACD Histogram Divergence + 1
Val Idea 0
Stock Consultant - 1
Point & Figure + 1
Wall Street Analyzer - 1
Marketspace Chart + 1
Time Series Chart + 1
Neural Network + 1
Stock Options + 1
Ultimate Trading Systems + 1
Total + 2
Place 3800 shares of San Juan Basin Royalty Trust (SJT) on the Active List.