04-23-202020: Spirit Airlines, Inc. (SAVE): Many Routes Closed Down

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Recommendation

Spirit Airlines, Inc.

Prior to the virus, Spirit Airlines, Inc. (SAVE) was expanding rapidly with new routes across the U.S. from coast to coast and to Latin America. Its entire fleet consists of European-made Airbus aircraft, so it has no Boeing 737MAX liability. After the virus, Spirit sought to curtail flights along many major routes which was opposed inn some cases by the Federal Aviation Administration. Our staff attempted to investigate the state of the airline by attempting to book flights along major routes. On the company's website, for example, LAX to Phoenix, a very busy route showed "No seats available" through the rest of the entire year. A call to the company revealed that while they have not shut down all their routes, LAX to PHX was clossed down entirely. So many aircraft are sitting idle just as SAVE went on a shopping spree for more than 100 more Airbuses.

Spirit is a "discount" airline but has special fees for baggage and seating preferences. Reviews of the airline experience appearing in various news and internet items were highly critical and suggested when a "bargain" is not a bargain.

Spirit has a good website, although contacting someone is difficult and there is no glitzy annual report nor CEO Letter to Shareholders, showing lack of concern for shareholders. Spirit recently injected poison pills into its stock to thwart any takeover attempts.

The stock is liked by Standard & Poor's, but not by most other researchers while analysts are more optimistic. All airlines as a whole have taken a big hit, and it is one of the weakest industry groups, with Spirit's stock performance weakest among them.

The Zenith Index is unfavorable for this stock which has taken a terrific meltdown since the virus affected travel. Fundamentals appear poor to us.

The stock does now have some very strong supporters and there are a number of warning signs in our analysis that could cause traders who sell the stock short to get caught in a short squeeze. Short sales are comparitively high in this stock which could help start an upward avalanche. Current p/e ratio is low and projected p/e is lower, where one of our strongest indicators, average to current p/e is flashing a big turnaround warning sign. Frankly, we do not see how this could be when the virus effects will probably reduce demand for the next two years.

Spirit has its strong analyst supporters. Institutions are net acquirers. The valuation of this company includes its large fleet of Airbusses which give it a asset and book value. We did not see any intangibles in its accounting statements.

A number of other warnings are not supported by chart patterns which are mostly very negative, but the "Val Idea" strategists are issuing a somewhat rare overall positive opinion.

This is not an airline we particularly like from a customer or reliability standpoint, but we have to concede it will the stock will likely return to former lofty heights as a question not of "if" but rather "when." The worst is not behind us for airlines. News includes Spirit management pulling back all previous "guidance" for unanticipated problems. 



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Zenith Index

Under current market conditions, a Zenith Index Score of 1.20 or above is required for a positive rating on this factor. 1.21 -1.30 is considered acceptable, 1.30-1.40 is considered strong and
> 1.40 is considered exceptionally strong. Accounting statements in this section often contain mistakes, especially in earlier years' totals, but data is deemed sufficient for us to give a rating. More accurate financial statements follow in the next section.

Spirit Airlines, Inc. (SAVE)                              Exchange: NYSE
2800 Executive Way
Miramar, FL 33025                Sector: Industrials
United States                    Industry: Airlines

Spirit Airlines, Inc. provides low-fare airline services. The company
operates approximately 600 daily flights to 77 destinations in the
United States, the Caribbean, and Latin America. As of December 31,
2019, the company had a fleet of 145 Airbus single-aisle aircraft
comprising 31 A319ceos, 64 A320ceos, 20 A320neos and 30 A321ceos. It
offers tickets through its call centers and airport ticket counters, as
well as online through spirit.com; and through various third parties,
including online, traditional travel agents, and electronic global
distribution systems. The company was formerly known as Clippert
Trucking Company and changed its name to Spirit Airlines, Inc. in 1992.
Spirit Airlines, Inc. was founded in 1964 and is headquartered in
Miramar, Florida.

Last Trade:  13.35                           52-Week Range:  58.55 -   7.01
Employees: 8,938                             Avg.Volume:   4,238,800 Shares

Corporate Governance:
Pillar scores are Audit: 1; Board: 1; Shareholder Rights: 8; Compensation: 3.
         (A lower number means less governance risk.)

EPS:  4.89    Dividend Amount: $ 0.00          Yield:  0.00%
             Ex-Dividend Date: N/A             Payout Ratio:   0.00

Key Statistics:

    Trailing P/E:   2.65              Forward P/E (est.):   2.43
                                           Target Price:  24.33

Qrtly Stock Price Growth (yoy): -76.01%               Beta:   1.30
Qrtly S&P Index   Growth (yoy):  12.40%        Short Ratio:   1.32%
    Qrtly Revenue Growth (yoy):  52.00%         Shares Out:  68450000
   Qrtly Earnings Growth (yoy): -11.70%

          Book Value:  33.03                    Debt/Equity: 157.34%
    Price/Book Value:   0.40        Operating Profit Margin:  13.55%
         Price/Sales:   0.24                  Profit Margin:   8.75%
         Market Cap:     886,492,000       Return on Equity:  16.00%
    Enterprise Value:   3,390,000,000      Return on Assets:   5.32%

    Operating Cash Flow:        409,221
         Free Cash Flow:        -25,776



Annual Income Statement:                          (All numbers in thousands)
  Period Ending                             12/31/2019  12/31/2018  12/31/2017

  Total Revenue                              3,830,536   3,323,034   2,647,666
  Cost of Revenue                            2,819,990   2,494,083   1,894,258
  Gross Profit                               1,010,546     828,951     753,408

Operating Expenses:
  Research & Development                             0           0           0
  Selling, General & Administrative                  0           0           0
  Total Operating Expenses                     491,432     379,536     347,820

Operating Income or Loss                       519,114     449,415     405,588

Income from Continuing Operations:
  Total Other Income/Expenses Net              -18,942    -189,610     -17,163
  Interest Expense                              88,879      73,936      43,509
  Income Before Taxes                          436,426     204,976     353,652
  Income Tax Expense                           101,171      49,227     -66,954

Net Income from Continuing Op.s                335,255     155,749     420,606

Non-recurring Events:
  Extraordinary Items                                0           0           0
  Net Income                                   335,255     155,749     420,606

Net Income Avail to Common Shares              335,255     155,749     420,606



Annual Cash Flow Statement:                   (All numbers in thousands)
  Period Ending                         12/31/2019    12/31/2018    12/31/2017

  Net Income                               335,255       155,749       420,606

Operating Activities:
  Depreciation                             225,264       176,727       140,152
  Changes in Accounts Recv'bls             -26,147         1,674        -8,134
  Changes in Liabilities                   206,010      -109,237      -215,946
  Changes in Inventories                         0             0             0
  Changes in other Oper'g Acts            -300,638         7,978      -167,833

Total Cash Flow f Operations               409,221       506,463       425,240

Investing Activities:
  Capital Exenditures                     -203,211      -615,700      -641,186
  Investments                                    0             0             0
  Other Cash Flows fr Investing           -110,038      -177,925      -149,477

Total Cash Flows from Investing           -314,829      -783,708      -792,003

Financing Activities:
  Dividends Paid                                 0             0             0
  Sale of Purchase of Stock                 -5,439        -5,439        -5,439
  Other Cash Flows fr Financing                  0             0      -149,477

Total Cash Flows from Financing           -120,168       481,129       466,712

Change in Cash & Cash Equiv.               -25,776       203,884        99,949



Annual Balance Sheets:                              (All Numbers in Thousands)
  Period Ending                          12/31/2019    12/31/2018    12/31/2017
Current Assets:
  Cash & Cash Equivalents                 1,004,733       800,849       700,900
  Short Term Investments                    102,789       100,937       100,155
  Net Receivables                            47,660        49,323        41,136
  Inventory                                       0             0             0
  Other Current Assets                            0             0             0
  Total Current Assets                    1,345,466     1,280,260       975,845

  Long-Term Investments                   3,448,876     2,446,276     1,587,731
  Property, Plant & Equipt                3,116,012     2,238,468     1,465,222
  Goodwill                                        0             0             0
  Intangible Assets                               0             0             0
  Other Assets                               79,456       121,003       110,223

Total Assets                              5,165,457     4,143,950     3,151,927

Current Liabilities:
  Accounts Payable                           39,320        22,822        15,193
  Current Portion LT Debt                   279,073       220,334       183,947
  Other Current Liabilities                 339,677       275,854       226,011
  Total Current Liabilities                 834,535       647,026        531,950

  Long Term Debt                          2,024,774     1,387,498       897,359
  Other Liabilities                               0             0             0

Total Liabilities                         3,236,953     2,366,869     1,757,320

Stockholder Equity:
  Common Stock                                    7             7             7
  Retained Earnings                       1,625,481     1,484,239     1,063,633
  Capital Surplus                            -1,193        -1,464        -1,345
  Total Stockholder Equity                1,928,504     1,777,081     1,394,607


Spirit Airlines, Inc. (SAVE)                [Indices near +3.0, near zero,
                                            or < zero bear special attention.]
P/E Ratio Tests:
P/E Ratio < 28?            3.0000          P/E Ratio > 5?             0.0000
P/E Ratio Vs Growth Rate: -2.0670          Forward P/E Ratio < 28?    3.0000
Price/Sales Ratio < 2.3?   3.0000          Inventory/Sales < 5%?      1.0000
Sales < $1 Billion?        0.2611          Operating Margin < 7.5%?   0.5535

Balance Sheet Tests:
Debt/Equity < 0.40?        0.2542          Long-Term Debt Service:    0.9525
LTD Being Reduced?        -3.0000          Short-Term Debt Service:   0.0000
Current Ratio > 2?         0.8061          Working Capital >= 1.5?    0.9428
Leverage Ratio < 20%?      0.1329          Debt/Assets < 1?           2.5511
Quick Ratio > 1?           3.0000          Inventory Turnover > 1?    1.0000
Share Equity Increase:     2.3595          Market Cap.< 1.5 Billion?  1.6921
                                           Intangibles < 3% Assets?   3.0000
Income Tests:
Profit Margin < 7.5%?      1.1666          EPS Annual Growth > 10%?   0.0465
Dividend Yield > 2.0%?     0.0000          EPS 3-yr Growth > 15?      0.1882
Enterprise Value/Revenue   0.2317          EPS Growth Consistent?     0.0000
Enterprise Value/EBITDA:   3.0000          Collection < 45 days?      3.0000
EPS Qrtly Growth > 10%?   -0.0085          Gross Pft/Cur. LTD > 1?    3.0000
                                           Borrowing Int. Rate < 6%?  1.3669
Stock Performance Tests:
Volatility > 25%?          3.0000          % Held by Insiders < 5%?   3.0000
Beta > 1.25?               1.0400          % Held by Institut. < 50?  0.4904
50 Da MA > 200 Da MA?     -3.0000          % Held by Institut. > 30?  3.0000
52-Wk Change vs. S&P 500: -1.4617          Short Ratio > 5?           0.2640
Price/Book Value < 3?      3.0000          Short % of Float > 20?     0.0000
Return on Assets > 17%?    0.3129          Average Volume > 100,000?  3.0000

Cash Flow Tests:
Oper. C.F. > Lever'd C.F: -3.0000          Positive Free Cash Flow?  -1.0000
Positive Oper. Cash Flow?  3.0000          Price to C.F.Ratio < 14?:  3.0000
                                           Cash Flow / Assets > 10%?  1.6344

SAVE   Spirit Airlines, Inc.               Overall Zenith Index:      1.0351


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Financial Statements

SPIRIT AIRLINES INC  (SAVE)                 INCOME STATEMENT

Fiscal year ends in December. USD in thousand        2015-12         2016-12         2017-12         2018-12         2019-12             TTM           

Revenue                                            2,141,463       2,321,956       2,647,666       3,323,034       3,830,536       3,830,536
Cost of revenue                                    1,336,621       1,473,101       1,780,638       2,357,082       2,666,220       2,666,220
Gross profit                                         804,842         848,855         867,028         965,952       1,164,316       1,164,316


Operating expenses
Sales, General and administrative                     86,576          96,627         113,620         137,001         153,770         153,770
Other operating expenses                             206,867         267,191         347,820         379,536         491,432         491,432
Total operating expenses                             293,443         363,818         461,440         516,537         645,202         645,202

Operating income                                     511,399         485,037         405,588         449,415         519,114         519,114
Interest Expense                                       8,829          28,949          43,509          73,936          77,948          77,948
Other income (expense)                                  -167         -36,628          -8,427        -170,503          -4,740          -4,740
Income before taxes                                  502,403         419,460         353,652         204,976         436,426         436,426
Provision for income taxes                           185,183         154,581         -66,954          49,227         101,171         101,171
Net income from continuing operations                317,220         264,879         420,606         155,749         335,255         335,255
Net income                                           317,220         264,879         420,606         155,749         335,255         335,255
Net income available to common shareholders          317,220         264,879         420,606         155,749         335,255         335,255

Earnings per share
Basic                                                   4.39            3.77            6.08            2.28            4.90            4.90 
Diluted                                                 4.38            3.76            6.06            2.28            4.89            4.89 

Weighted average shares outstanding
Basic                                                 72,208          70,344          69,221          68,249          68,429          68,429
Diluted                                               72,426          70,508          69,377          68,431          68,559          68,559

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


SPIRIT AIRLINES INC  (SAVE)                 BALANCE SHEET

Fiscal year ends in December. USD in thousand        2015-12         2016-12         2017-12         2018-12         2019-12             

Assets

Current assets

Cash

Short-term investments                                     0         100,155         100,937         102,789         105,321
Total cash                                           803,632         801,055         901,786       1,107,522       1,084,278

Receivables                                           28,266          41,136          49,323          47,660          73,807
Prepaid expenses                                     194,442         133,654         259,307         190,284         206,345
Other current assets                                       0               0          69,844               0          21,013
Total current assets                               1,026,340         975,845       1,280,260       1,345,466       1,385,443

Non-current assets

Property, plant and equipment
Gross property, plant and equipment                  909,741       1,587,731       2,446,276       3,448,876       5,392,304
Accumulated Depreciation                             -65,524        -122,509        -207,808        -332,864        -492,447
Net property, plant and equipment                    844,217       1,465,222       2,238,468       3,116,012       4,899,857

Other long-term assets                               659,988         710,860         625,222         703,979         758,112
Total non-current assets                           1,504,205       2,176,082       2,863,690       3,819,991       5,657,969

Total assets                                       2,530,545       3,151,927       4,143,950       5,165,457       7,043,412 

Liabilities and stockholders' equity

Liabilities

Current liabilities
Short-term debt                                       49,637          84,354         115,430         163,557         258,852
Capital leases                                        24,014          10,378          16,992          15,149         141,318
Accounts payable                                      17,043          15,193          22,822          39,320          43,601
Taxes payable                                         38,254          42,064          42,036          60,604          65,312
Accrued liabilities                                  120,461         173,569         203,342         263,924         287,553
Deferred revenues                                    216,831         206,392         246,404         291,981         315,408
Total current liabilities                            466,240         531,950         647,026         834,535       1,112,044

Non-current liabilities
Long-term debt                                       596,693         897,359       1,387,498       2,024,774       1,960,453
Capital leases                                             0               0               0               0       1,218,014
Deferred taxes liabilities                           221,481         308,143         313,140         355,141         469,292
Deferred revenues                                     20,821          19,868          19,205          22,503          22,277
Total non-current liabilities                        838,995       1,225,370       1,719,843       2,402,418       3,670,036

Total liabilities                                  1,305,235       1,757,320       2,366,869       3,236,953       4,782,080 

Stockholders' equity

Common stock                                               7               7               7               7               7
Additional paid-in capital                           544,277         551,004         360,153         371,225         379,380
Retained earnings                                    798,754       1,063,633       1,484,239       1,625,481       1,955,187
Treasury stock                                      -116,182        -218,692         -65,854         -67,016         -72,455
Accumulated other comprehensive income                -1,546          -1,345          -1,464          -1,193            -787
Total stockholders' equity                         1,225,310       1,394,607       1,777,081       1,928,504       2,261,332
Total liabilities and stockholders' equity         2,530,545       3,151,927       4,143,950       5,165,457       7,043,412

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


SPIRIT AIRLINES INC  (SAVE)                 Statement of CASH FLOW

Fiscal year ends in December. USD in thousand        2015-12         2016-12         2017-12         2018-12         2019-12             TTM           

Cash Flows From Operating Activities
Net income                                           317,220         264,879         420,606         155,749         335,255         335,255
Depreciation & amortization                           73,908         101,136         140,152         176,727         225,264         225,264
Investments losses (gains)                             2,334               0               0               0               0               0
Deferred income taxes                                155,614          86,146          -1,610          46,303         115,689         115,689
Stock based compensation                               9,222           7,105           8,522          11,021           8,154           8,154
Change in working capital                            -88,094         -33,336        -167,833           7,978        -300,638        -300,638
Accounts receivable                                   -5,592         -12,951          -8,134           1,674         -26,147         -26,147
Prepaid expenses                                     -32,101          26,409         -37,930          14,019          23,884          23,884
Accounts payable                                       2,706          -6,823           6,030          15,317             569             569
Other working capital                                -53,107         -39,971        -127,799         -23,032        -298,944        -298,944
Other non-cash items                                   2,781          47,748          25,403         108,685          25,497          25,497
Net cash provided by operating activities            472,985         473,678         425,240         506,463         409,221         409,221

Cash Flows From Investing Activities
Investments in property, plant, and equipmen        -548,800        -541,122        -628,881        -606,971        -192,437        -192,437
Property, plant, and equipment reductions                  0              50               0          11,400               0               0
Purchases of investments                                   0        -103,258        -107,246        -124,430        -122,410        -122,410
Sales/Maturities of investments                            0           2,842         105,906         122,947         120,830         120,830
Other investing activities                          -152,482        -184,781        -161,782        -186,654        -120,812        -120,812
Net cash used for investing activities              -701,282        -826,269        -792,003        -783,708        -314,829        -314,829

Cash Flows From Financing Activities
Debt issued                                          544,080         417,275         629,725         832,099         225,891         225,891
Debt repayment                                       -26,364         -64,421        -102,738        -342,995        -343,330        -343,330
Common stock repurchased                            -112,261        -102,510         -46,580          -1,162          -5,439          -5,439
Other financing activities                            -6,310            -485         -13,695          -6,813           2,710           2,710
Net cash provided by (used for) financing            399,145         249,859         466,712         481,129        -120,168        -120,168

Net change in cash                                   170,848        -102,732          99,949         203,884         -25,776         -25,776
Cash at beginning of period                          632,784         803,632         700,900         800,849       1,004,733       1,004,733
Cash at end of period                                803,632         700,900         800,849       1,004,733         978,957         978,957

Free Cash Flow
Operating cash flow                                  472,985         473,678         425,240         506,463         409,221         409,221
Capital expenditure                                 -558,959        -551,956        -641,186        -615,700        -203,211        -203,211
Free cash flow                                       -85,974         -78,278        -215,946        -109,237         206,010         206,010
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________





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Average to Current P/E Ratios
              (SAVE)     Spirit Airlines Inc.

                               2015    2016    2017    2018    2019

          Annual Earnings:     4.38    3.76    5.99    2.28    4.89
Average Price During Year:    62.87   44.31   47.53   42.92   48.05

                P/E Ratio:    14.35   11.78    7.93   18.82    9.83

 Average 5-Year P/E Ratio  =  12.54
             Current Price =  12.57

Previous 5 Quarter Earnings:   1.34    0.82    1.67    1.22    1.18

          Current Annualized (Last Four Quarters) Earnings =   4.07
                                                           ________
                                 Average PE / Current PE =     4.06
                                                           --------

                                      ...a number above 1.00 is good
                                                1.00 or below is bad


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Intrinsic Value (DCF)

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Sentiment

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Short Interest Ratio

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Channeling Potential

 
The summary below includes a value for `Degree,' which refers on a
scale of 1 to 10 the range of a channel in the period under consi-
deration compared to the total range of price movement. It also looks
for the last closing price to be within the channel, otherwise zeroed.
The `Index' is the `Degree' weighted for volatility.  Generally, the
the higher the index, the more suitable is the stock for trading as
a `rolling stock' between channel high and low points.

Results for SPIRIT AIRLINES:
Symbol? save
Total Months Available:  11
       Months in Cycle?   4

Months Covered by Periods:  12

Period 1           Period 2          Period 3
   H1      L1        H2      L2        H3      L3
  55.21    0.00     40.90   32.97     47.50    7.01

RANGE   =  55.21  TO    0.00            Close =  12.95
CHANNEL =  40.90  TO   32.97           Degree =   1
Volatility =  61.24%                    Index =   6
Channel Chart



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MACD Histogram Divergence

The theory is that connecting the two most recent peaks or valleys of the MACD histogram will signal the direction of the next major move.



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Intraday Chart

2 Days:



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Val Idea

5 out of 8 favorable, (positive opinion.)

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Neural Network Prediction

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Ultimate Trading Systems

2 out of 3 of the ultimate systems favor an upmove.


System Below:
Short term outlook: Positive: Bright Green, Negative: Bright Red
Long term outlook: Postive: Dark Green, Negative: Dark Red.




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Recommendation

Decision Weighting Factors
FactorsWeighted Points
News - 1
Comparison + 1
Industry - 1
Bond Issue + 1
Zenith Index - 1
Non-GAAP vs. GAAP Earnings - 1
Cash Flow - 1
Average to Current P/E + 1
Ratios - 1
Intrinsic Value DCF + 1
Fair Value Estimator + 1
Projected Earnings + 1
Research Reports - 1
Analysts + 1
Executive Perquisites - 1
Insider Activity + 1
Institutional Activity + 1
Management Reporting + 1
Short Interest - 1
Sentiment - 1
Standard & Poor's + 1
MACD Histogram Divergence + 1
Val Idea + 1
Stock Consultant - 1
Point & Figure - 1
Wall Street Analyzer - 1
Marketspace Chart - 1
Time Series Chart - 1
Neural Network + 1
Stock Options + 1
Ultimate Trading Systems + 1
Total + 1
Place 2,410 shares of Spirit Airlines, Inc. (SAVE) on the Active List.