02-26-2020: Open Text Corporation (OTEX): Cloud Computing Experts

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Recommendation

Open Text Corporation

Open Text Corp. (OTEX) is what we like to characterize as one of those "all things to all people" suite of software program companies. A lot of it has to do with "cloud computing" where this phrase means availability of seller's computer system for supply of data and other information through the internet on demand.

OTEX is a Canadian company which often means a company gets penalized in our evaluation system due to the unavailability of certain information on U.S. companies such as insider trading and non-standard reporting. However, this company, in our opinion, has excellent management reporting meeting U.S. SEC standards for U.S. corporation in most areas. It is traded on both the NYSE and Toronto exchanges, with similar stock price after adjustment for Candian Dollar exchange rate.

As of this writing, we just came past the worst down day in the market in two years while this stock held up remarkably well. It has high intrinsic value due to growth rate and use of its licensed software by a large array of prestige clients.

Institutions are net acquirers. Chart patterns look weak to us, so the company's strength is mainly in fundamentals. It has a strong Zenith Index, although Jefferson Research rates its balance sheet as weak. We think the fundamentals are strong.

The company is involved in a number of class action lawsuits but they are aimed at the companies acquired by this company at bargain prices, so that might be interpreted as supportive for management.

Like most computer software company websites, we think the company's website is a bit vague as far as investors are concerned about exactly what are its capabilities, described in glowing but not too detailed terms. A number of research papers dominate news items for this company where more information is available if one cares to dig deeper. 



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Bond Issue

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Zenith Index

Under current market conditions, a Zenith Index Score of 1.20 or above is required for a positive rating on this factor. 1.21 -1.30 is considered acceptable, 1.30-1.40 is considered strong and
> 1.40 is considered exceptionally strong. Accounting statements in this section often contain mistakes, especially in earlier years' totals, but data is deemed sufficient for us to give a rating. More accurate financial statements follow in the next section.

Open Text Corporation (OTEX)                              Exchange: Nasdaq
275 Frank Tompa Drive
Waterloo, ON N2L 0A1             Sector: Technology
Canada                           Industry: Software--Application

Open Text Corporation provides a suite of software products and
services. The company offers content services; business network, a
cloud-based platform that facilitates collaboration and exchange of
information inside and outside of organizations; artificial intelligence
and analytics solutions; and OpenText EIM platform that provides
multi-level, multi-role, and multi context security information
platforms. OpenText also provides digital process automation, which
enables organizations to transform into digital data-driven businesses
through automation; Customer Experience Management, a set of processes
used to track customer interactions throughout the customer journey;
Magellan, an artificial intelligence (AI) and analytics platform that
combines open source machine learning with advanced analysis and is able
to merge, manage, and analyze both structured and unstructured, textual
content; and Discovery suite that provides forensics and unstructured
data analytics for searching, collecting, and investigating enterprise
data to manage legal obligations and risk. In addition, the company
offers customer support programs that include access to software
upgrades, a knowledge base, discussions, product information, and an
online mechanism to post and review trouble tickets. Further, it
provides professional services, such as consulting and learning services
relating to the implementation, training, and integration of its
licensed product offerings into the customers' systems, as well as cloud
services. The company serves organizations, enterprise companies,
mid-market companies, and public sector agencies worldwide. It has
strategic partnerships with SAP SE, Microsoft Corporation, Oracle
Corporation, Salesforce.com Corporation, Accenture plc, Deloitte
Consulting LLP, Tata Consultancy Services, ATOS, and Ernst & Young. The
company was founded in 1991 and is headquartered in Waterloo, Canada.

Last Trade:  47.29                           52-Week Range:  47.85 -  37.01
Employees: 14,600                            Avg.Volume:     401,988 Shares

Corporate Governance:
Pillar scores are Audit: 1; Board: 3; Shareholder Rights: 3; Compensation: 1.
         (A lower number means less governance risk.)

EPS:  1.21    Dividend Amount: $ 0.70          Yield:  1.46%
             Ex-Dividend Date: Feb 26, 2020    Payout Ratio:  55.83

Key Statistics:

    Trailing P/E:  38.34                      Target Price:  52.12

Qrtly Stock Price Growth (yoy):  24.19%               Beta:   0.57
Qrtly S&P Index   Growth (yoy):   4.90%        Short Ratio:  11.71%
    Qrtly Revenue Growth (yoy):  52.00%         Shares Out:  269920000
   Qrtly Earnings Growth (yoy):   2.90%

          Book Value:  14.82                    Debt/Equity:  95.00%
    Price/Book Value:   0.00        Operating Profit Margin:  21.39%
         Price/Sales:   0.00                  Profit Margin:  11.13%
         Market Cap:  12,493,000,000       Return on Equity:   8.39%
    Enterprise Value:               0      Return on Assets:   4.55%

    Operating Cash Flow:        876,278
         Free Cash Flow:        263,378



Annual Income Statement:                          (All numbers in thousands)
  Period Ending                             6/30/2019   6/30/2018   6/30/2017

  Total Revenue                              2,868,755   2,815,241   2,291,057
  Cost of Revenue                              930,703     951,411     762,391
  Gross Profit                               1,938,052   1,863,830   1,528,666

Operating Expenses:
  Research & Development                       321,836     323,461     281,680
  Selling, General & Administrative            725,944     734,694     615,276
  Total Operating Expenses                   1,335,323   1,329,216   1,112,116

Operating Income or Loss                       602,729     534,614     416,550

Income from Continuing Operations:
  Total Other Income/Expenses Net              -25,563     -11,238     -47,875
  Interest Expense                                   0           0           0
  Income Before Taxes                          440,574     386,126     249,551
  Income Tax Expense                           154,937     143,826    -776,364

Net Income from Continuing Op.s                285,637     242,300   1,025,915

Non-recurring Events:
  Extraordinary Items                              136          76         256
  Net Income                                   285,501     242,224   1,025,659

Net Income Avail to Common Shares              285,501     242,224   1,025,659



Annual Cash Flow Statement:                   (All numbers in thousands)
  Period Ending                         6/30/2019     6/30/2018     6/30/2017

  Net Income                               285,637       242,300     1,025,915

Operating Activities:
  Depreciation                             470,928       456,929       345,715
  Changes in Accounts Recv'bls              75,508       -22,566      -126,784
  Changes in Liabilities                   812,441       604,567       359,661
  Changes in Inventories                         0             0             0
  Changes in other Oper'g Acts              40,794      -114,883      -102,058

Total Cash Flow f Operations               876,278       709,885       439,253

Investing Activities:
  Capital Exenditures                      -63,837      -105,318       -79,592
  Investments                             -383,723      -321,089    -2,114,790
  Other Cash Flows fr Investing            -16,966       -18,034        -5,937

Total Cash Flows from Investing           -464,526      -444,441    -2,190,964

Financing Activities:
  Dividends Paid                          -168,859      -145,613      -120,581
  Sale of Purchase of Stock                -26,499       -26,499       577,724
  Other Cash Flows fr Financing               -905        -4,375        -5,937

Total Cash Flows from Financing           -148,374       -23,673       909,544

Change in Cash & Cash Equiv.               259,552       239,585      -840,400



Annual Balance Sheets:                              (All Numbers in Thousands)
  Period Ending                          6/30/2019     6/30/2018     6/30/2017
Current Assets:
  Cash & Cash Equivalents                   682,942       443,357     1,283,757
  Short Term Investments                          0             0        11,839
  Net Receivables                           487,956       445,812       285,904
  Inventory                                       0             0             0
  Other Current Assets                            0             0             0
  Total Current Assets                    1,327,580     1,003,477     1,672,273

  Long-Term Investments                     588,301       458,461       367,094
  Property, Plant & Equipt                  264,205       227,418       183,660
  Goodwill                                3,580,129     3,416,749     2,325,586
  Intangible Assets                       1,296,637     1,472,542       646,240
  Other Assets                              111,267        93,763        10,715

Total Assets                              7,765,029     7,480,562     5,154,144

Current Liabilities:
  Accounts Payable                           41,722        43,699        35,804
  Current Portion LT Debt                   251,713       282,257       214,647
  Other Current Liabilities                       0             0         1,890
  Total Current Liabilities                 994,599     1,127,043        671,029

  Long Term Debt                          2,610,523     2,387,057     2,137,987
  Other Liabilities                               0        94,724        79,231

Total Liabilities                         4,047,771     3,947,243     3,174,947

Stockholder Equity:
  Common Stock                            1,707,073     1,439,850       817,788
  Retained Earnings                       1,994,235     1,897,624       992,546
  Capital Surplus                            33,645        48,800        46,310
  Total Stockholder Equity                3,716,221     3,532,358     1,978,656


Open Text Corporation (OTEX)                [Indices near +3.0, near zero,
                                            or < zero bear special attention.]
P/E Ratio Tests:
P/E Ratio < 28?            0.7303          P/E Ratio > 5?             1.0000
P/E Ratio Vs Growth Rate:  3.0000          Forward P/E Ratio < 28?    0.0000
Price/Sales Ratio < 2.3?   1.0000          Inventory/Sales < 5%?      1.0000
Sales < $1 Billion?        0.3486          Operating Margin < 7.5%?   0.3506

Balance Sheet Tests:
Debt/Equity < 0.40?        0.4211          Long-Term Debt Service:    1.4240
LTD Being Reduced?        -3.0000          Short-Term Debt Service:   3.0000
Current Ratio > 2?         0.6674          Working Capital >= 1.5?    1.1388
Leverage Ratio < 20%?      0.1017          Debt/Assets < 1?           2.9745
Quick Ratio > 1?           3.0000          Inventory Turnover > 1?    1.0000
Share Equity Increase:     2.8373          Market Cap.< 1.5 Billion?  0.1201
                                           Intangibles < 3% Assets?   0.0478
Income Tests:
Profit Margin < 7.5%?      1.4840          EPS Annual Growth > 10%?   0.0848
Dividend Yield > 2.0%?     1.3699          EPS 3-yr Growth > 15?      0.5389
Enterprise Value/Revenue   3.0000          EPS Growth Consistent?     0.0000
Enterprise Value/EBITDA:   3.0000          Collection < 45 days?      0.7248
EPS Qrtly Growth > 10%?    0.0345          Gross Pft/Cur. LTD > 1?    3.0000
                                           Borrowing Int. Rate < 6%?  3.0000
Stock Performance Tests:
Volatility > 25%?          0.9062          % Held by Insiders < 5%?   2.8571
Beta > 1.25?               0.4560          % Held by Institut. < 50?  0.6813
50 Da MA > 200 Da MA?      0.2499          % Held by Institut. > 30?  2.4463
52-Wk Change vs. S&P 500:  0.4652          Short Ratio > 5?           2.3420
Price/Book Value < 3?      3.0000          Short % of Float > 20?     0.0930
Return on Assets > 17%?    0.2676          Average Volume > 100,000?  3.0000

Cash Flow Tests:
Oper. C.F. > Lever'd C.F:  3.0000          Positive Free Cash Flow?   3.0000
Positive Oper. Cash Flow?  3.0000          Price to C.F.Ratio < 14?:  1.6688
                                           Cash Flow / Assets > 10%?  1.9178

OTEX   Open Text Corporation               Overall Zenith Index:      1.3629


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Financial Statements

OPEN TEXT CORP  (OTEX)                      INCOME STATEMENT

Fiscal year ends in June. USD in thousands ex        2015-06         2016-06         2017-06         2018-06         2019-06             TTM           

Revenue                                            1,851,917       1,824,228       2,291,057       2,815,241       2,868,755       2,934,812
Cost of revenue                                      601,785         574,000         762,391         951,411         930,703         937,261
Gross profit                                       1,250,132       1,250,228       1,528,666       1,863,830       1,938,052       1,997,551


Operating expenses
Research and development                             196,491         194,057         281,680         323,461         321,836         330,074
Sales, General and administrative                    532,962         484,632         615,276         734,694         725,944         748,505
Restructuring, merger and acquisition                 19,034          26,354          49,425          22,445          34,736          15,736
Other operating expenses                             140,111         141,776         165,735         248,616         252,807         273,931
Total operating expenses                             888,598         846,819       1,112,116       1,329,216       1,335,323       1,368,246

Operating income                                     361,534         403,409         416,550         534,614         602,729         629,305
Other income (expense)                               -95,490        -112,632        -166,999        -148,488        -162,155        -143,792
Income before taxes                                  266,044         290,777         249,551         386,126         440,574         485,513
Provision for income taxes                            31,638           6,282        -776,364         143,826         154,937         158,760
Net income from continuing operations                234,406         284,495       1,025,915         242,300         285,637         326,753
Other                                                    -79             -18            -256             -76            -136            -140
Net income                                           234,327         284,477       1,025,659         242,224         285,501         326,613
Net income available to common shareholders          234,327         284,477       1,025,659         242,224         285,501         326,613

Earnings per share
Basic                                                   0.96            1.17            4.04            0.91            1.06            1.21 
Diluted                                                 0.95            1.17            4.01            0.91            1.06            1.21 

Weighted average shares outstanding
Basic                                                244,184         242,926         253,879         266,085         268,784         269,762
Diluted                                              245,914         244,076         255,805         267,492         269,908         270,874

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


OPEN TEXT CORP  (OTEX)                      BALANCE SHEET

Fiscal year ends in June. USD in thousands ex        2015-06         2016-06         2017-06         2018-06         2019-06             

Assets

Current assets

Cash

Short-term investments                                11,166          11,839               0               0               0
Total cash                                           711,165       1,295,596         443,357         682,942         941,009

Receivables                                          284,131         285,904         445,812         487,956         463,785
Deferred income taxes                                 30,711               0               0               0               0
Prepaid expenses                                      53,191          59,021          81,625         101,059          97,238
Other current assets                                  21,151          31,752          32,683          55,623          59,296
Total current assets                               1,100,349       1,672,273       1,003,477       1,327,580       1,561,328

Non-current assets

Property, plant and equipment
Gross property, plant and equipment                  306,652         367,094         458,461         588,301         678,869
Accumulated Depreciation                            -146,233        -183,434        -231,043        -324,096        -429,416
Net property, plant and equipment                    160,419         183,660         227,418         264,205         249,453

Equity and other investments                          20,494          18,062          30,909          49,635          67,002
Goodwill                                           2,161,592       2,325,586       3,416,749       3,580,129       3,769,908
Intangible assets                                    679,479         646,240       1,472,542       1,296,637       1,146,504
Deferred income taxes                                155,411         241,161       1,215,712       1,122,729       1,004,450
Other long-term assets                               110,751          67,162         113,755         124,114         135,330
Total non-current assets                           3,288,146       3,481,871       6,477,085       6,437,449       6,372,647

Total assets                                       4,388,495       5,154,144       7,480,562       7,765,029       7,933,975 

Liabilities and stockholders' equity

Liabilities

Current liabilities
Short-term debt                                        8,000           8,000         182,760          10,000          10,000
Accounts payable                                      15,558          35,804          43,699          41,722          46,323
Deferred income taxes                                    997               0               0               0               0
Taxes payable                                         17,001          32,030          31,835          38,234          33,158
Accrued liabilities                                  212,383         214,647         282,257         251,713         273,767
Deferred revenues                                    358,066         373,549         570,328         644,211         641,656
Other current liabilities                             13,429           6,999          16,164           8,719           9,813
Total current liabilities                            625,434         671,029       1,127,043         994,599       1,014,717

Non-current liabilities
Long-term debt                                     1,580,000       2,137,987       2,387,057       2,610,523       2,604,878
Deferred taxes liabilities                            69,185          79,231          94,724          79,938          55,872
Accrued liabilities                                   24,826          19,138          36,702          35,874          30,338
Deferred revenues                                     28,223          37,461          61,678          69,197          46,974
Pensions and other benefits                           56,737          61,993          58,627          65,719          75,239
Minority interest                                        523             541             961           1,037           1,215
Other long-term liabilities                          174,283         168,108         181,412         191,921         221,287
Total non-current liabilities                      1,933,777       2,504,459       2,821,161       3,054,209       3,035,803

Total liabilities                                  2,559,211       3,175,488       3,948,204       4,048,808       4,050,520 

Stockholders' equity

Common stock                                         808,010         817,788       1,439,850       1,707,073       1,774,214
Additional paid-in capital                           126,417         147,280         173,604               0               0
Retained earnings                                    863,015         992,546       1,897,624       1,994,235       2,113,883
Treasury stock                                       -19,986         -25,268         -27,520         -18,732         -28,766
Accumulated other comprehensive income                51,828          46,310          48,800          33,645          24,124
Total stockholders' equity                         1,829,284       1,978,656       3,532,358       3,716,221       3,883,455
Total liabilities and stockholders' equity         4,388,495       5,154,144       7,480,562       7,765,029       7,933,975

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


OPEN TEXT CORP  (OTEX)                      Statement of CASH FLOW

Fiscal year ends in June. USD in thousands ex        2015-06         2016-06         2017-06         2018-06         2019-06             TTM           

Cash Flows From Operating Activities
Depreciation & amortization                          240,147         242,368         345,715         456,929         470,928         459,806
Amortization of debt discount/premium and is          10,525           9,903           6,298           4,242               0               0
Investment/asset impairment charges                    2,919               0             833             155               0               0
Deferred income taxes                                -14,578         -54,461        -871,195          89,736          47,425          72,684
Stock based compensation                              22,047          25,978          30,507          27,594          26,770          28,004
Accounts receivable                                   43,189           8,985        -126,784         -22,566          75,508          44,558
Prepaid expenses                                      -3,534             316          -7,766          -7,274            -819         -13,852
Other working capital                                -18,037          -1,995          32,492         -85,043         -33,895         -59,465
Other non-cash items                                 240,353         294,628       1,029,153         246,112         290,361         328,724
Net cash provided by operating activities            523,031         525,722         439,253         709,885         876,278         860,459

Cash Flows From Investing Activities
Investments in property, plant, and equipmen         -77,046         -70,009         -79,592        -105,318         -63,837         -68,585
Acquisitions, net                                   -327,792        -293,071      -2,114,647        -321,089        -383,723      -1,290,947
Sales/Maturities of investments                       17,017          11,297           9,212               0               0               0
Other investing activities                           -10,574          -9,393          -5,937         -18,034         -16,966         -16,134
Net cash used for investing activities              -398,395        -361,176      -2,190,964        -444,441        -464,526      -1,375,666

Cash Flows From Financing Activities
Debt issued                                          800,000         600,000         481,875       1,200,000               0         750,000
Debt repayment                                      -530,284          -8,000         -57,880      -1,149,620         -10,000         -10,000
Common stock issued                                   15,240          20,097         604,223               0               0               0
Common stock repurchased                             -10,126         -76,136          -8,198               0         -26,499         -14,389
Excess tax benefit from stock based compe              1,675             230           1,534               0               0               0
Dividend paid                                        -87,629         -99,262        -120,581        -145,613        -168,859        -181,791
Other financing activities                           -18,271          -6,765           8,571          71,560          56,984          55,741
Net cash provided by (used for) financing            170,605         430,164         909,544         -23,673        -148,374         599,561

Effect of exchange rate changes                      -23,132         -10,952           1,767          -2,186          -3,826          -1,996
Net change in cash                                   272,109         583,758        -840,400         239,585         259,552          82,358
Cash at beginning of period                          427,890         699,999       1,283,757         443,357         683,991         597,874
Cash at end of period                                699,999       1,283,757         443,357         682,942         943,543         680,232

Free Cash Flow
Operating cash flow                                  523,031         525,722         439,253         709,885         876,278         860,459
Capital expenditure                                  -77,046         -70,009         -79,592        -105,318         -63,837         -68,585
Free cash flow                                       445,985         455,713         359,661         604,567         812,441         791,874
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________





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Average to Current P/E Ratios
              (OTEX)     Open Text Corp.

                               2015    2016    2017    2018    2019

          Annual Earnings:     1.12    1.55    5.32    1.15    1.40
Average Price During Year:    24.24   28.41   33.07   35.68   39.37

                P/E Ratio:    21.64   18.33    6.22   31.03   28.12

 Average 5-Year P/E Ratio  =  21.07
             Current Price =  44.95

Previous 5 Quarter Earnings:   0.51    0.36    0.36    0.36    0.52

          Current Annualized (Last Four Quarters) Earnings =   1.24
                                                           ________
                                 Average PE / Current PE =     0.58
                                                           --------

                                      ...a number above 1.00 is good
                                                1.00 or below is bad


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Financial Ratios

. . . . . . . . . . . . Lowest to Highest, Compared to Industry



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Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Intrinsic Value by Discounted Cash Flow Method:

Intrinsic Value



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Fair Value Estimator

Fair Value Estimate:

Fair Value



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Projected Earnings

Earnings Estimates



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Research Reports

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Analysts' Opinions

Analysts' Opinion 1
Analysts' Opinion 1
Analysts' Opinion 1
Analysts' Opinion 1
Analysts' Opinion 2



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Insider Activity

Insiders Chart Executive Compensation



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Institutional Activity

Institutional Ownership:

institutions 1
Mutual Fund Ownership:

institutions 2


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Sentiment

sentiment

Zenith uses the "sentiment" score above or below 50 to award a positive or negative point in the Decision Matrix.

sentiment sentiment sentiment sentiment



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Short Interest Ratio

As the short interest rises as a percentage of average daily share volume (Days to Cover), this is considered a measure of negative sentiment. Similarly, a decrease in that percentage is considered positive sentiment.

short interest short interest


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Standard & Poor's

S&P Stock Report (Requires Adobe Acrobat Reader)



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Management's Discussion of Results of Operations Excerpts

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Channeling Potential

 
The summary below includes a value for `Degree,' which refers on a
scale of 1 to 10 the range of a channel in the period under consi-
deration compared to the total range of price movement. It also looks
for the last closing price to be within the channel, otherwise zeroed.
The `Index' is the `Degree' weighted for volatility.  Generally, the
the higher the index, the more suitable is the stock for trading as
a `rolling stock' between channel high and low points.

Results for OPEN TEXT CORPORATION:
Symbol? OTEX
Total Months Available:  25
       Months in Cycle?   4

Months Covered by Periods:  12

Period 1           Period 2          Period 3
   H1      L1        H2      L2        H3      L3
  41.57   37.01     44.49   37.15     47.85   39.20

RANGE   =  47.85  TO   37.01            Close =  47.29
CHANNEL =  41.57  TO   39.20           Degree =   2
Volatility =   5.01%                    Index =   1
Channel Chart



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MACD Histogram Divergence

The theory is that connecting the two most recent peaks or valleys of the MACD histogram will signal the direction of the next major move.



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Intraday Chart

2 Days:



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Val Idea

2 out of 9 favorable, (negative opinion.)

Val Idea
Val Idea


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Stock Consultant

Stock Consultant Stock Consultant


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Point & Figure Chart

P & F Chart


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Wall Street Analyzer



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Marketspace Chart

Marketspace Chart



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Time Series Forecast

Time Series 1 Time Series 2


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Neural Network Prediction

"Neurostock" can only track long trades. Therefore its performance, as tracked by itself on stocks which are consistently falling, may not appear as good as it could if each "sell" signal were a "short sale."

Neural Chart
Heading
Neural Trades Neural Prediction



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Ultimate Trading Systems

2 out of 3 of the ultimate systems favor a downmove.


System Below:
Short term outlook: Positive: Bright Green, Negative: Bright Red
Long term outlook: Postive: Dark Green, Negative: Dark Red.




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Recommendation

Decision Weighting Factors
FactorsWeighted Points
News + 1
Comparison - 1
Industry + 1
Bond Issue + 1
Zenith Index + 1
Non-GAAP vs. GAAP Earnings + 1
Cash Flow + 1
Average to Current P/E - 1
Ratios + 1
Intrinsic Value DCF + 1
Fair Value Estimator + 1
Projected Earnings + 1
Research Reports + 1
Analysts + 1
Executive Perquisites - 1
Insider Activity - 1
Institutional Activity + 1
Management Reporting + 1
Short Interest - 1
Sentiment + 1
Standard & Poor's - 1
MACD Histogram Divergence + 1
Val Idea - 1
Stock Consultant + 1
Point & Figure - 1
Wall Street Analyzer - 1
Marketspace Chart + 1
Time Series Chart - 1
Neural Network - 1
Stock Options + 1
Ultimate Trading Systems - 1
Total + 7
Place 665 shares of Open Text Corporation (OTEX) on the Active List.