08-22-2018: Natural Health Trends Corporation (NHTC): Eighty-Seven Percent of Sales From Hong Kong

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Recommendation

Natural Health Trends Corporation

The company's website "online store" greets you with the message, "NHT Global Product is not available online unless through a Distributor." Purchasing some of these dubious health products means you are supporting not only the manufacturer, but a complex arrangement of middle-men. A rather complex set of "rules" applyiing to distributors must be adhered to home business applicants protecting the manufacturer. Why this would ever work any better than Amway, or Avon, or any number of other similar plans, some of which are disavowed in foreign countries, is a mystery to us, but apparently if the financials are analysts and researchers are correct, this corporation has found a very successful recipe. We found the corporation's website a bit confusing to navigate, insofar as the ability to understand or order some but not all of its products without going through a "distributor."

There is something about Asian women that creates a market for health foods, personal care products, beauty products that makes a strong market in China. Although National Health Trends Corporation (NHTC) is based in California, which could actually be a disadvantage in this case, it has strong Chinese influence in its management. One of the things about Chinese corporations is that they are often efficiently run, meet U.S. reporting requirements, and have financial ratios much more favorable toward representing "value stocks." This corporation is no exception, with a very high Zenith Index indicating strong fundamentals, no debt, expanding revenues and earnings, although earnings are expanding faster than revenues.

There are a very large number of class action lawsuits pending against this corporation. The problem seems to be the Chinese making it hard to sell American products in China, due to regulations imposed with regard to the type of home business distributorships used and also health concerns with the products themselves. In both cases, these problems are usually just ways Chinese used to eliminate foreign competition in an industry where they have very many manufacturers of their own. The lawsuits suggest management failed to alert shareholders to these problems. Since these problems are typical for any corporations doing a large part of their business and getting a large part of their revenues from China, it should have come as no surprise.

Researchers are slightly negative, but Val Idea gurus showed a very rare unanimous recommendation for the stock, and Standard & Poor's liked it but was split with Market Grader which liked it less. GMI Analyst suggests the accounting standards were very good. Executives are modestly compensated suggesting good corporate governance. There are no stock options perquisite selling by managers going on. Institutions are net sellers probably because this stock has climbed higher and faster than any other in the Russell 2000 Small Cap Index.

The big risk here is China and the Trump trade wars. But the company has other international operations and a loyal distributorship base which continues to expand earnings in a manner which we do not quite understand, but nevertheless seems to be succeeding better than most other profit-sharing schemes.

A total absense of analysts following this stock pernalized it in a couple of our ratings, namely projected earnings (unknown) and analyst support.

Watch out for the fact that 87% of sales are from Hong Kong. This company is not based in China, which means the Chinese will make it harder for this company to compete. Given the mess made of our foreign relations and trade agreements by the Republicans, this is a very big concern which management may be downplaying. 



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Zenith Index

Under current market conditions, a Zenith Index Score of 1.20 or above is required for a positive rating on this factor. 1.21 -1.30 is considered acceptable, 1.30-1.40 is considered strong and
> 1.40 is considered exceptionally strong. Accounting statements in this section often contain mistakes, especially in earlier years' totals, but data is deemed sufficient for us to give a rating. More accurate financial statements follow in the next section.

Natural Health Trends Corp. (NHTC)                        Exchange: Nasdaq
609 Deep Valley Drive
Suite 395                        Sector: Consumer Defensive
Rolling Hills Estates, CA 90274  Industry: Household & Personal Products

Natural Health Trends Corp., a direct-selling and e-commerce company,
provides personal care, wellness, and lifestyle products under the NHT
Global brand. The company's wellness products include liquid,
encapsulated, tableted, and powder dietary and nutritional supplements,
as well as vitamins and minerals; and herbal products comprise herbal
supplements. Its beauty products consists of anti-aging and hydrating
cleansers, creams, lotions, serums, and toners; and lifestyle products
include weight management, intimacy support, and energy enhancing
supplements. In addition, the company offers home and car appliances;
and infant and toddler bath and body care products. It sells its
products directly to consumers through an e-commerce retail platform.
The company has operations in the United States, Canada, Peru, Hong
Kong, China, Taiwan, South Korea, Russia, Kazakhstan, Europe, and
internationally. Natural Health Trends Corp. was founded in 1988 and is
headquartered in Rolling Hills Estates, California.

Last Trade:  25.25                           52-Week Range:  26.11 -  14.15
Employees: 149                               Avg.Volume:      85,860 Shares

Corporate Governance:
Pillar scores are Audit: 10; Board: 10; Shareholder Rights: 6; Compensation: 5.
         (A lower number means less governance risk.)

EPS:  1.83    Dividend Amount: $ 0.60          Yield:  2.41%
             Ex-Dividend Date: Aug 12, 2018    Payout Ratio:  27.32

Key Statistics:

    Trailing P/E:  13.73

Qrtly Stock Price Growth (yoy):  31.44%               Beta:   2.56
Qrtly S&P Index   Growth (yoy):  -1.10%        Short Ratio:  15.41%
    Qrtly Revenue Growth (yoy):  17.65%         Shares Out:  11310000
   Qrtly Earnings Growth (yoy): -12.40%

          Book Value:   7.57                    Debt/Equity:   0.00%
    Price/Book Value:   3.32        Operating Profit Margin:  19.71%
         Price/Sales:   1.50                  Profit Margin:  10.92%
         Market Cap:     284,376,000       Return on Equity:  23.00%
    Enterprise Value:     157,240,000      Return on Assets:  15.11%

    Operating Cash Flow:     22,470,000
         Free Cash Flow:      8,450,000



Annual Income Statement:                          (All numbers in thousands)
  Period Ending                             12/31/2017  12/31/2016  12/31/2015

  Total Revenue                                197,563     287,728     264,860
  Cost of Revenue                               38,645      54,903      54,098
  Gross Profit                                 158,918     232,825     210,762

Operating Expenses:
  Research & Development                             0           0           0
  Selling, General & Administrative            115,323     168,295     162,622
  Non-Recurring Expenses                             0           0           0
  Other Operating Expenses                           0           0           0
  Total Operating Expenses                     154,504     223,592     216,983

Operating Income or Loss                        43,059      64,136      47,877

Income from Continuing Operations:
  Total Other Income/Expenses Net                  367         -59         -84
  Earnings Before Interest & Taxes              43,059                 64,136  E
arnings Before Interest & Taxes              47,877
  Interest Expense                                   0           0           0
  Income Before Taxes                           43,426      64,077      47,793
  Income Tax Expense                            19,848       8,991         552
  Minority Interest                                  0           0           0

Net Income from Continuing Op.s                 23,578      55,086      47,241

Non-recurring Events:
  Discontinued Operations                            0           0           0
  Extraordinary Items                                0           0           0
  Effect of Accounting Changes                       0           0           0
  Other Items                                        0           0           0
  Net Income                                    23,578      55,086      47,241
  Preferred Stock & Other Adjustments                0           0           0

Net Income Avail to Common Shares               23,578      55,086      47,241



Annual Cash Flow Statement:                   (All numbers in thousands)
  Period Ending                         12/31/2017    12/31/2016    12/31/2015

  Net Income                                23,578        55,086        47,241

Operating Activities:
  Depreciation                                 536           394           263
  Adjustments to Net Income                 -1,867           453           -11
  Changes in Accounts Recv'bls                   0             0             0
  Changes in Liabilities                      -873           233         1,968
  Changes in Investories                     2,843          -851        -6,762
  Changes in other Oper'g Acts             -16,288        -2,444        38,742

Total Cash Flow f Operations                26,605        53,174        81,326

Investing Activities:
  Capital Exenditures                         -278          -905          -710
  Investments                                    0             0             0
  Other Cash Flows fr Investing                  0             0        -3,028

Total Cash Flows from Investing               -278          -905        -3,738

Financing Activities:
  Dividends Paid                            -4,758        -2,950        -1,709
  Sale of Purchase of Stock                      0             0             0
  Net Borrowings                                 0             0             0
  Other Cash Flows fr Financing                  0             0        -3,028

Total Cash Flows from Financing            -17,218       -30,595       -17,471

  Effect of Exchange Rate Chg                  281          -667           -19

Change in Cash & Cash Equiv.                 9,390        21,007        60,098



Annual Balance Sheets:                              (All Numbers in Thousands)
  Period Ending                          12/31/2017    12/31/2016    12/31/2015
Current Assets:
  Cash & Cash Equivalents                   135,311       125,921       104,914
  Short Term Investments                          0             0             0
  Net Receivables                                 0             0             0
  Inventory                                   8,398        11,257        10,455
  Other Current Assets                        7,534         4,066         2,343
  Total Current Assets                      151,243       141,244       117,712

  Long-Term Investments                           0             0             0
  Property, Plant & Equipt                    1,149         1,388           894
  Goodwill                                    1,764         1,764         1,764
  Intangible Assets                               0             0             0
  Accumulated Amortization                        0             0             0
  Other Assets                                5,398         3,655         3,782
  Deferred LT Asset Charges                   1,435             0             0

Total Assets                                159,554       148,051       124,152

Current Liabilities:
  Accounts Payable                            1,751         2,145         2,862
  Current Portion LT Debt                         0             0             0
  Other Current Liabilities                  22,009        28,041        23,866
  Total Current Liabilities                  23,760        30,186         26,728

  Long Term Debt                              1,751         2,145         2,862
  Other Liabilities                               0             0             0
  Deferred LT Liab. Charges                  22,009        28,041        23,866
  Minority Interest                               0             0             0
  Negative Goodwill                               0             0             0

Total Liabilities                            50,772        38,644        32,558

Stockholder Equity:
  Misc. Options, Warrants                         0             0             0
  Redeemable Preferred Stock                      0             0             0
  Preferred Stock                                 0             0             0
  Common Stock                                   13            13            13
  Retained Earnings                          44,908        38,548        -9,647
  Treasury Stock                            -40,983       -42,696       -19,520
  Capital Surplus                            86,683        86,574        85,963
  Other Stockhohlder Equity                    -413          -807          -101
  Total Stockholder Equity                   90,621        82,439        56,809

Net Tangible Assets                          88,857        80,675        55,045



Natural Health Trends Corp. (NHTC)          [Indices near +3.0, near zero,
                                            or < zero bear special attention.]
P/E Ratio Tests:
P/E Ratio < 28?            2.0393          P/E Ratio > 5?             1.0000
P/E Ratio Vs Growth Rate: -3.0000          Forward P/E Ratio < 28?    0.0000
Price/Sales Ratio < 2.3?   1.5333          Inventory/Sales < 5%?      1.1763
Sales < $1 Billion?        3.0000          Operating Margin < 7.5%?   0.3805

Balance Sheet Tests:
Debt/Equity < 0.40?        1.0000          Long-Term Debt Service:    3.0000
LTD Being Reduced?         0.0000          Short-Term Debt Service:   3.0000
Current Ratio > 2?         3.0000          Working Capital >= 1.5?    0.2388
Leverage Ratio < 20%?      3.0000          Debt/Assets < 1?           3.0000
Quick Ratio > 1?           3.0000          Inventory Turnover > 1?    0.0544
Share Equity Increase:     2.5504          Market Cap.< 1.5 Billion?  3.0000
                                           Intangibles < 3% Assets?   2.7135
Income Tests:
Profit Margin < 7.5%?      1.4560          EPS Annual Growth > 10%?   0.2336
Dividend Yield > 2.0%?     0.8299          EPS 3-yr Growth > 15?      0.3005
Enterprise Value/Revenue   1.4387          EPS Growth Consistent?     0.0000
Enterprise Value/EBITDA:   3.0000          Collection < 45 days?      1.0000
EPS Qrtly Growth > 10%?   -0.0081          Gross Pft/Cur. LTD > 1?    3.0000
                                           Borrowing Int. Rate < 6%?  3.0000
Stock Performance Tests:
Volatility > 25%?          1.8322          % Held by Insiders < 5%?   0.1395
Beta > 1.25?               2.0480          % Held by Institut. < 50?  1.4497
50 Da MA > 200 Da MA?      0.4041          % Held by Institut. > 30?  1.1497
52-Wk Change vs. S&P 500:  1.7813          Short Ratio > 5?           3.0000
Price/Book Value < 3?      0.8994          Short % of Float > 20?     1.1075
Return on Assets > 17%?    0.8888          Average Volume > 100,000?  0.8586

Cash Flow Tests:
Oper. C.F. > Lever'd C.F:  2.6592          Positive Free Cash Flow?   3.0000
Positive Oper. Cash Flow?  3.0000          Price to C.F.Ratio < 14?:  2.1711
                                           Cash Flow / Assets > 10%?  2.7640

NHTC   Natural Health Trends Corp.         Overall Zenith Index:      1.5705


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Financial Statements

NATURAL HEALTH TRENDS CORP  (NHTC)          INCOME STATEMENT

Fiscal year ends in December.                        2013-12         2014-12         2015-12         2016-12         2017-12             TTM           

Revenue                                           52,527,000     124,590,000     264,860,000     287,728,000     197,563,008     189,500,992
Cost of revenue                                   12,551,000      26,981,000      54,098,000      54,903,000      38,645,000      38,227,000
Gross profit                                      39,976,000      97,609,000     210,762,000     232,824,992     158,918,000     151,274,000


Operating expenses
Sales, General and administrative                 35,687,000      76,684,000     162,622,000     168,295,008     115,323,000     113,386,000
Other operating expenses                              66,000         105,000         263,000         394,000         536,000         536,000
Total operating expenses                          35,753,000      76,789,000     162,884,992     168,688,992     115,859,000     113,922,000

Operating income                                   4,223,000      20,820,000      47,877,000      64,136,000      43,059,000      37,352,000
Other income (expense)                               -32,000        -184,000         -84,000         -59,000         367,000         347,000
Income before taxes                                4,191,000      20,636,000      47,793,000      64,077,000      43,426,000      37,699,000
Provision for income taxes                           102,000         266,000         552,000       8,991,000      19,848,000      17,002,000
Net income from continuing operations              4,089,000      20,370,000      47,241,000      55,086,000      23,578,000      20,697,000
Net income                                         4,089,000      20,370,000      47,241,000      55,086,000      23,578,000      20,697,000
Preferred dividend                                    15,000          10,000               0               0               0               0
Net income available to common shareholders        4,074,000      20,360,000      47,241,000      55,086,000      23,578,000      20,697,000

Earnings per share
Basic                                                   0.36            1.67            3.84            4.84            2.10            1.84 
Diluted                                                 0.36            1.61            3.82            4.83            2.09            1.83 

Weighted average shares outstanding
Basic                                             11,154,000      12,131,000      12,302,000      11,382,000      11,251,000      11,279,000
Diluted                                           11,331,000      12,600,000      12,372,000      11,407,000      11,267,000      11,283,500

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


NATURAL HEALTH TRENDS CORP  (NHTC)          BALANCE SHEET

Fiscal year ends in December.                        2013-12         2014-12         2015-12         2016-12         2017-12             

Assets

Current assets

Cash

Total cash                                        14,550,000      44,816,000     104,914,000     125,921,000     135,311,008

Receivables                                          134,000         107,000          57,000               0               0
Inventories                                        1,828,000       3,760,000      10,455,000      11,257,000       8,398,000
Other current assets                                 658,000         930,000       2,286,000       4,066,000       7,534,000
Total current assets                              17,170,000      49,613,000     117,712,000     141,244,000     151,243,008

Non-current assets

Property, plant and equipment
Gross property, plant and equipment                1,307,000       1,407,000       2,017,000       2,455,000       2,719,000
Accumulated Depreciation                          -1,042,000        -931,000      -1,123,000      -1,067,000      -1,570,000
Net property, plant and equipment                    265,000         476,000         894,000       1,388,000       1,149,000

Goodwill                                           1,764,000       1,764,000       1,764,000       1,764,000       1,764,000
Deferred income taxes                                      0               0               0               0       1,435,000
Other long-term assets                               628,000         687,000       3,782,000       3,655,000       3,963,000
Total non-current assets                           2,657,000       2,927,000       6,440,000       6,807,000       8,311,000

Total assets                                      19,827,000      52,540,000     124,152,000     148,051,008     159,554,000 

Liabilities and stockholders' equity

Liabilities

Current liabilities
Accounts payable                                   3,058,000       2,232,000       2,862,000       2,145,000       1,751,000
Deferred income taxes                                108,000          65,000          60,000         268,000               0
Taxes payable                                         25,000         268,000         379,000         663,000         309,000
Accrued liabilities                                7,108,000      10,976,000      25,273,000      18,059,000      13,207,000
Deferred revenues                                  2,569,000       2,687,000       4,011,000       4,948,000       4,455,000
Other current liabilities                            882,000       8,197,000      28,988,000      31,071,000      22,199,000
Total current liabilities                         13,750,000      24,425,000      61,573,000      57,154,000      41,921,000

Non-current liabilities
Deferred taxes liabilities                                 0               0               0               0          56,000
Other long-term liabilities                                0       1,665,000       5,770,000       8,458,000      26,956,000
Total non-current liabilities                              0       1,665,000       5,770,000       8,458,000      27,012,000

Total liabilities                                 13,750,000      26,090,000      67,343,000      65,612,000      68,933,000 

Stockholders' equity

Preferred stock                                      111,000               0               0               0               0
Common stock                                          11,000          13,000          13,000          13,000          13,000
Additional paid-in capital                        80,655,000      85,750,000      85,963,000      86,574,000      86,683,000
Retained earnings                                -74,619,000     -54,799,000      -9,647,000      38,548,000      44,908,000
Treasury stock                                             0      -4,576,000     -19,419,000     -41,889,000     -40,570,000
Accumulated other comprehensive income               -81,000          62,000        -101,000        -807,000        -413,000
Total stockholders' equity                         6,077,000      26,450,000      56,809,000      82,439,000      90,621,000
Total liabilities and stockholders' equity        19,827,000      52,540,000     124,152,000     148,051,008     159,554,000

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


NATURAL HEALTH TRENDS CORP  (NHTC)          Statement of CASH FLOW

Fiscal year ends in December. USD.                   2013-12         2014-12         2015-12         2016-12         2017-12             TTM           

Cash Flows From Operating Activities
Net income                                         4,089,000      20,370,000      47,241,000      55,086,000      23,578,000      20,697,000
Depreciation & amortization                           66,000         105,000         263,000         394,000         536,000         495,000
Deferred income taxes                                 16,000         -43,000         -15,000         217,000      -1,644,000               0
Stock based compensation                             110,000          49,000          86,000         104,000          35,000               0
Change in working capital                          6,405,000      10,132,000      33,833,000      -2,759,000       4,358,000       2,900,000
Accounts receivable                                  -17,000               0          41,000               0               0               0
Inventory                                           -974,000      -2,029,000      -6,762,000        -851,000       2,843,000        -602,000
Accounts payable                                   1,673,000        -822,000         637,000        -714,000        -392,000         628,000
Accrued liabilities                                4,146,000       8,783,000      21,554,000      -5,980,000      -8,450,000      -3,894,000
Income taxes payable                                  16,000         243,000        -115,000         303,000      18,676,000      12,667,000
Other working capital                              1,561,000       3,957,000      18,478,000       4,483,000      -8,319,000      -5,899,000
Other non-cash items                                       0               0         -82,000         132,000        -258,000      -1,626,000
Net cash provided by operating activities         10,686,000      30,613,000      81,326,000      53,174,000      26,605,000      22,466,000

Cash Flows From Investing Activities
Investments in property, plant, and equipmen        -210,000        -339,000        -710,000        -905,000        -278,000        -221,000
Other investing activities                           -82,000               0      -3,028,000               0               0               0
Net cash used for investing activities              -292,000        -339,000      -3,738,000        -905,000        -278,000        -221,000

Cash Flows From Financing Activities
Common stock repurchased                             -52,000      -4,661,000     -16,071,000     -23,704,000               0               0
Dividend paid                                              0        -476,000      -1,709,000      -6,891,000     -17,218,000     -30,233,000
Other financing activities                                 0       4,948,000         309,000               0               0               0
Net cash provided by (used for) financing            -52,000        -189,000     -17,471,000     -30,595,000     -17,218,000     -30,233,000

Effect of exchange rate changes                        1,000         181,000         -19,000        -667,000         281,000         -59,000
Net change in cash                                10,343,000      30,266,000      60,098,000      21,007,000       9,390,000      -8,047,000
Cash at beginning of period                        4,207,000      14,550,000      44,816,000     104,914,000     125,921,000     139,224,000
Cash at end of period                             14,550,000      44,816,000     104,914,000     125,921,000     135,311,008     131,177,000

Free Cash Flow
Operating cash flow                               10,686,000      30,613,000      81,326,000      53,174,000      26,605,000      22,466,000
Capital expenditure                                 -210,000        -339,000        -710,000        -905,000        -278,000        -221,000
Free cash flow                                    10,476,000      30,274,000      80,616,000      52,269,000      26,327,000      22,245,000


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Average to Current P/E Ratios
              (NHTC)     Natural Health Trends Corp.

                               2013    2014    2015    2016    2017

          Annual Earnings:     0.36    1.61    3.82    4.83    2.09
Average Price During Year:     2.06    8.84   27.62   29.27   24.91

                P/E Ratio:     5.73    5.49    7.23    6.06   11.92

 Average 5-Year P/E Ratio  =   7.28
             Current Price =  25.25

Previous 5 Quarter Earnings:   0.91    0.65   -0.40    0.78    0.80

           Current Annualized (Last Four Quarters) Earnings =   1.18
                                                           ________
                                 Average PE / Current PE =     0.34
                                                           --------

                                      ...a number above 1.00 is good
                                                1.00 or below is bad


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Val Idea

8 out of 8 favorable, (positive opinion.)

Val Idea
Val Idea


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Stock Consultant

Stock Consultant Stock Consultant


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Point & Figure Chart

P & F Chart


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Wall Street Analyzer




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Marketspace Chart

Marketspace Chart



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Time Series Forecast

Time Series 1 Time Series 2


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Neural Network Prediction

"Neurostock" can only track long trades. Therefore its performance, as tracked by itself on stocks which are consistently falling, may not appear as good as it could if each "sell" signal were a "short sale."

Neural Chart
Heading
Neural Trades Neural Prediction



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Ultimate Trading Systems

2 out of 3 of the ultimate systems favor an upmove.


System Below:
Short term outlook: Positive: Bright Green, Negative: Bright Red
Long term outlook: Postive: Dark Green, Negative: Dark Red.




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Recommendation

Decision Weighting Factors
FactorsWeighted Points
News - 1
Comparison - 1
Industry + 1
Bond Issue 0
Zenith Index + 1
Non-GAAP vs. GAAP Earnings - 1
Cash Flow - 1
Average to Current P/E - 1
Ratios + 1
Market Grader + 1
Intrinsic Value DCF - 1
Fair Value Estimator + 1
Projected Earnings - 1
Research Reports - 1
Analysts - 1
Executive Perquisites + 1
Insider Activity + 1
Institutional Activity - 1
Management Reporting + 1
Short Interest + 1
Sentiment + 1
Standard & Poor's + 1
MACD Histogram Divergence - 1
Val Idea + 1
Stock Consultant - 1
Point & Figure + 1
Wall Street Analyzer + 1
Marketspace Chart + 1
Time Series Chart + 1
Neural Network - 1
Stock Options + 1
Ultimate Trading Systems + 1
Total + 6
Place 1,190 shares of National Health Trends Corporation (NHTC) on the Active List.