10-19--2015: Meritor, Inc. (MTOR): Serves Market for Suspension Parts, Axles for Heavy-Duty Trucks and other Commercial Vehicles

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Recommendation

Meritor, Inc.

Meritor, Inc. (MTOR) has been around in one form or another since 1920 when it operated in the Detroit, MI area helping Ford build cars. It produces mainly axles and axle-related parts for large trucks, busses, and other heavy equipment. It has a large international presence, selling parts to original equipment makers and also into the after-market repair areas in North America (57% of business), and Europe, South America, China,India, and other parts of Asia. The development of electric vehicles has affected other products it manufacturers significantly, including gearboxes, brakes, etc., and it has a stream of new innovative products related to that transition. It has some highly-distinguished large OEM's in parts of the world as steady customers.

As one might expect, this company could be suffering a bit under U.S. administration trade policies erecting barriers. Also, transportation costs for goods are going up and freight volumes in the trucking industry are described recently as "sluggish." The company has had to trim costs, lay off workers, and deal with a declining market for heavy duty trucks from original equipment makers.

Meritor is thus expecting a year over year decline in earnings, but this is less than analysts projected. We think the stock has over-reacted, pushing its average to current p/e ratio into an exceptional valuation condition rarely seen in American stocks lately. Institutions have perceived this and are net acquirers.

While researchers and analysts are generally negative on the stock, with Standard & Poor's neutral, there are glaring exceptions as some see trading opportunities. The stock tends to move in long cycles, currently on the way back up. While not exactly a "channeling stock", it does appear to be heading into a trading range between $20 and $22/share.

The company appears well-managed, has a good website, although no CEO Letter to Shareholders. It does not pay a dividend, unusual for a company this size, suggesting insufficient concern for shareholders, but corporate governance seems reasonable.

News for this company consists of a steady stream of PR announcements regarding new innovative product introductions. The company has exposure to asbestos-related lawsuits that have been going on for decades. It did some restructuring to manage this.

The company also sells products for military vehicles in the defense industry. We think we will continue to see a consistent demand for this company's unique products and consider the stock fairly "safe" while still offering trading opportunites. 



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Zenith Index

Under current market conditions, a Zenith Index Score of 1.20 or above is required for a positive rating on this factor. 1.21 -1.30 is considered acceptable, 1.30-1.40 is considered strong and
> 1.40 is considered exceptionally strong. Accounting statements in this section often contain mistakes, especially in earlier years' totals, but data is deemed sufficient for us to give a rating. More accurate financial statements follow in the next section.

Meritor, Inc. (MTOR)                                      Exchange: NYSE
2135 West Maple Road
Troy, MI 48084                   Sector: Consumer Cyclical
United States                    Industry:Auto Parts

Meritor, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, markets, distributes,
sells, services, and supports integrated systems, modules, and
components to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and the
aftermarket for the commercial vehicle, transportation, and industrial
sectors. It operates through two segments, Commercial Truck; and
Aftermarket, Industrial and Trailer. The Commercial Truck segment
supplies drivetrain systems and components, including axles, drivelines,
and braking and suspension systems primarily for medium-and heavy-duty
trucks and other applications; and undercarriage products and systems
for trailer applications. The Aftermarket, Industrial and Trailer
segment supplies axles, brakes, drivelines, suspension parts, and other
replacement parts to commercial vehicle and industrial aftermarket
customers. It also supplies drivetrain systems and various components,
such as axles, drivelines, brakes, and suspension systems for military,
construction, bus and coach, fire and emergency, and other applications.
The company sells its products under the Meritor, Euclid, Trucktechnic,
and Mach brands primarily to OEMs and its parts marketing operations,
and dealers, as well as for other independent distributors and service
garages in the aftermarket industry in North America, South America,
Europe, and the Asia Pacific. The company was formerly known as
ArvinMeritor, Inc. and changed its name to Meritor, Inc. in March 2011.
Meritor, Inc. was founded in 1921 and is headquartered in Troy, Michigan.

Last Trade:  18.42                           52-Week Range:  25.78 -  15.01
Employees: 9,300                             Avg.Volume:     843,617 Shares

Corporate Governance:
Pllar scores are Audit: 1; Board: 1; Shareholder Rights: 7; Compensation: 2.
         (A lower number means less governance risk.)

EPS:  3.19    Dividend Amount: $ 0.00          Yield:  0.00%
             Ex-Dividend Date:          Dec 7, 2008   Payout Ratio:   0.00

Key Statistics:

    Trailing P/E:   5.89              Forward P/E (est.):   5.67
                                           Target Price:  25.71

Qrtly Stock Price Growth (yoy):   2.22%               Beta:   0.00
Qrtly S&P Index   Growth (yoy):   3.30%        Short Ratio:  11.24%
    Qrtly Revenue Growth (yoy):   7.98%         Shares Out:  82580000
   Qrtly Earnings Growth (yoy):  34.40%

          Book Value:   5.74                    Debt/Equity: 148.82%
    Price/Book Value:   3.27        Operating Profit Margin:   8.67%
         Price/Sales:   0.35                  Profit Margin:   6.31%
         Market Cap:   1,550,000,000       Return on Equity:  70.85%
    Enterprise Value:   2,210,000,000      Return on Assets:   9.01%

    Operating Cash Flow:    254,000,000
         Free Cash Flow:    134,750,000



Annual Income Statement:                          (All numbers in thousands)
  Period Ending                              9/30/2018   9/30/2017   9/30/2016

  Total Revenue                              4,178,000   3,347,000   3,199,000
  Cost of Revenue                            3,524,000   2,863,000   2,763,000
  Gross Profit                                 654,000     484,000     436,000

Operating Expenses:
  Research & Development                             0           0           0
  Selling, General & Administrative            317,000     264,000     213,000
  Total Operating Expenses                     331,000     271,000     216,000

Operating Income or Loss                       323,000     213,000     220,000

Income from Continuing Operations:
  Total Other Income/Expenses Net               22,000     287,000      19,000
  Interest Expense                                   0           0           0
  Income Before Taxes                          278,000     381,000     155,000
  Income Tax Expense                           149,000    -402,000           0
Net Income from Continuing Op.s                129,000     329,000     557,000

Net Income Avail to Common Shares              117,000     324,000     551,000



Annual Cash Flow Statement:                   (All numbers in thousands)
  Period Ending                          9/30/2018     9/30/2017     9/30/2016

  Net Income                               129,000       329,000       557,000

Operating Activities:
  Depreciation                              84,000        75,000        67,000
  Accounts Receivable                      -98,000      -160,000        89,000
  Changes in Liabilities                   -20,000       -64,000         5,000
  Inventories                             -112,000       -43,000        28,000
  Changes in other Oper'g Acts             147,000        81,000       111,000

Total Cash Flow f Operations               251,000       176,000       204,000

Investing Activities:
  Capital Exenditures                     -104,000       -95,000       -93,000
  Investments                             -104,000       -95,000       -93,000
  Other Cash Flows fr Investing              2,000       -34,000        -1,000

Total Cash Flows from Investing            111,000      -127,000       -86,000

Financing Activities:
  Dividends Paid                                 0             0             0
  Sale of Purchase of Stock               -100,000             0       -81,000
  Net Borrowings                          -224,000      -511,000       -55,000
  Other Cash Flows fr Financing             -5,000       -25,000        -1,000

Total Cash Flows from Financing           -329,000      -122,000      -152,000

Change in Cash & Cash Equiv.                27,000       -72,000       -33,000



Annual Balance Sheets:                              (All Numbers in Thousands)
  Period Ending                           9/30/2018     9/30/2017     9/30/2016
Current Assets:
  Cash & Cash Equivalents                   115,000        88,000       160,000
  Short Term Investments                          0             0             0
  Net Receivables                           588,000       789,000       396,000
  Inventory                                 477,000       378,000       316,000
  Other Current Assets                       46,000        43,000        32,000
  Total Current Assets                    1,226,000     1,325,000       859,000
Non-current Assets:
  Long-Term Investments                     596,000       596,000       738,000
  Property, Plant & Equipt                1,382,000     1,357,000     1,269,000
  Goodwill                                  421,000       414,000       390,000
  Intangible Assets                          44,000        27,000        29,000
  Accumulated Amortization                 -899,000      -883,000      -830,000
  Other Assets                              596,000       596,000       738,000

Total Assets                              2,726,000     2,782,000     2,471,000

Current Liabilities:
  Accounts Payable                          700,000       622,000       475,000
  Taxes Payable                              27,000        11,000         8,000
  Other Current Liabilities                 290,000       272,000       268,000
  Total Current Liabilities               5,173,000     4,248,000      3,950,000

  Long Term Debt                            700,000       622,000       475,000
  Deferred LT Liab. Charges                 290,000       272,000       268,000

Total Liabilities                         6,393,000     5,468,000     5,170,000


Stockholder Equity:
  Common Stock                              102,000       101,000        99,000
  Retained Earnings                         200,000        83,000      -241,000
  Other Stockhohlder Equity                -566,000      -545,000      -809,000
  Total Stockholder Equity                  288,000       288,000       288,000

Net Tangible Assets                       2,726,000     2,782,000     2,471,000


Meritor, Inc. (MTOR)                        [Indices near +3.0, near zero,
                                            or < zero bear special attention.]
P/E Ratio Tests:
P/E Ratio < 28?            3.0000          P/E Ratio > 5?             1.0000
P/E Ratio Vs Growth Rate:  3.0000          Forward P/E Ratio < 28?    3.0000
Price/Sales Ratio < 2.3?   3.0000          Inventory/Sales < 5%?      0.4379
Sales < $1 Billion?        0.2393          Operating Margin < 7.5%?   0.8651

Balance Sheet Tests:
Debt/Equity < 0.40?        0.2688          Long-Term Debt Service:   -3.0000
LTD Being Reduced?         3.0000          Short-Term Debt Service:   3.0000
Current Ratio > 2?         0.1185          Working Capital >= 1.5?    3.0000
Leverage Ratio < 20%?      0.3359          Debt/Assets < 1?           3.0000
Quick Ratio > 1?           3.0000          Inventory Turnover > 1?    1.0000
Share Equity Increase:     2.0000          Market Cap.< 1.5 Billion?  0.9677
                                           Intangibles < 3% Assets?   0.1759
Income Tests:
Profit Margin < 7.5%?      0.8413          EPS Annual Growth > 10%?   0.2769
Dividend Yield > 2.0%?     0.0000          EPS 3-yr Growth > 15?      0.7064
Enterprise Value/Revenue   0.3711          EPS Growth Consistent?    -2.0000
Enterprise Value/EBITDA:   3.0000          Collection < 45 days?      0.8760
EPS Qrtly Growth > 10%?    0.0029          Gross Pft / LTD > 1?    0.8959
                                           Borrowing Int. Rate < 6%?  3.0000
Stock Performance Tests:
Volatility > 25%?          1.6711          % Held by Insiders < 5%?   1.9763
Beta > 1.25?               0.0000          % Held by Institut. < 50?  0.5288
50 Da MA > 200 Da MA?     -0.4951          % Held by Institut. > 30?  3.0000
52-Wk Change vs. S&P 500:  0.2782          Short Ratio > 5?           2.2480
Price/Book Value < 3?      0.9349          Short % of Float > 20?     0.6690
Return on Assets > 17%?    0.5300          Average Volume > 100,000?  3.0000

Cash Flow Tests:
Oper. C.F. > Lever'd C.F:  1.8850          Positive Free Cash Flow?   3.0000
Positive Oper. Cash Flow?  3.0000          Price to C.F.Ratio < 14?:  3.0000
                                           Cash Flow / Assets > 10%?  2.5348

MTOR   Meritor, Inc.                       Overall Zenith Index:      1.3711


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Financial Statements

MERITOR INC  (MTOR)                         INCOME STATEMENT

Fiscal year ends in September. USD in thousa         2014-09         2015-09         2016-09         2017-09         2018-09             TTM           

Revenue                                            3,766,000       3,505,000       3,199,000       3,347,000       4,178,000       4,440,000
Cost of revenue                                    3,279,000       3,043,000       2,763,000       2,863,000       3,524,000       3,765,000
Gross profit                                         487,000         462,000         436,000         484,000         654,000         675,000


Operating expenses
Sales, General and administrative                    235,000         299,000         240,000         235,000         285,000         283,000
Restructuring, merger and acquisition                 10,000          16,000          16,000           6,000           6,000          -2,000
Other operating expenses                              12,000         -17,000         -39,000          15,000          35,000          -4,000
Total operating expenses                             257,000         298,000         217,000         256,000         326,000         277,000

Operating income                                     230,000         164,000         219,000         228,000         328,000         398,000
Other income (expense)                                85,000         -97,000         -64,000         153,000         -50,000         -23,000
Income before taxes                                  315,000          67,000         155,000         381,000         278,000         375,000
Provision for income taxes                            31,000           1,000        -424,000          52,000         149,000          87,000
Net income from continuing operations                284,000          66,000         579,000         329,000         129,000         288,000
Net income from discontinuing ops                    -30,000          -1,000          -4,000          -1,000          -3,000               0
Other                                                 -5,000          -1,000          -2,000          -4,000          -9,000          -8,000
Net income                                           249,000          64,000         573,000         324,000         117,000         280,000
Net income available to common shareholders          249,000          64,000         573,000         324,000         117,000         280,000

Earnings per share
Basic                                                   2.55            0.66            6.36            3.68            1.34            3.33 
Diluted                                                 2.51            0.64            6.23            3.59            1.28            3.21 

Weighted average shares outstanding
Basic                                                 97,500          96,900          90,100          88,000          87,500          84,200
Diluted                                               99,200         100,100          92,000          90,200          91,200          87,750

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


MERITOR INC  (MTOR)                         BALANCE SHEET

Fiscal year ends in September. USD in thousa         2014-09         2015-09         2016-09         2017-09         2018-09             

Assets

Current assets

Cash

Total cash                                           247,000         193,000         160,000          88,000         115,000

Receivables                                          610,000         461,000         396,000         789,000         588,000
Inventories                                          379,000         338,000         316,000         378,000         477,000
Deferred income taxes                                 21,000          20,000               0               0               0
Prepaid expenses                                      20,000          17,000          23,000          29,000          30,000
Other current assets                                  15,000          13,000          10,000          14,000          16,000
Total current assets                               1,292,000       1,042,000         905,000       1,298,000       1,226,000

Non-current assets

Property, plant and equipment
Gross property, plant and equipment                1,397,000       1,287,000       1,269,000       1,357,000       1,382,000
Accumulated Depreciation                            -973,000        -868,000        -830,000        -883,000        -899,000
Net property, plant and equipment                    424,000         419,000         439,000         474,000         483,000

Equity and other investments                         106,000          96,000         100,000         101,000         102,000
Goodwill                                             431,000         402,000         390,000         414,000         421,000
Intangible assets                                     25,000          28,000          29,000          27,000          44,000
Deferred income taxes                                 15,000          28,000         413,000         229,000         140,000
Prepaid pension benefit                              104,000         110,000         123,000         135,000         152,000
Other long-term assets                               105,000          70,000          95,000         104,000         158,000
Total non-current assets                           1,210,000       1,153,000       1,589,000       1,484,000       1,500,000

Total assets                                       2,502,000       2,195,000       2,494,000       2,782,000       2,726,000 

Liabilities and stockholders' equity

Liabilities

Current liabilities
Short-term debt                                        7,000          15,000          14,000         288,000          94,000
Accounts payable                                     680,000         574,000         475,000         622,000         700,000
Taxes payable                                         58,000          32,000          29,000          45,000          52,000
Accrued liabilities                                   42,000          36,000          32,000          27,000          30,000
Other current liabilities                            251,000         211,000         207,000         200,000         208,000
Total current liabilities                          1,038,000         868,000         757,000       1,182,000       1,084,000

Non-current liabilities
Long-term debt                                       965,000       1,036,000         982,000         750,000         730,000
Deferred taxes liabilities                           103,000          99,000          12,000          12,000          16,000
Accrued liabilities                                   24,000          26,000          26,000          27,000          35,000
Pensions and other benefits                          775,000         632,000         703,000         314,000         262,000
Minority interest                                     27,000          25,000          25,000          27,000          30,000
Other long-term liabilities                          182,000         180,000         200,000         200,000         281,000
Total non-current liabilities                      2,076,000       1,998,000       1,948,000       1,330,000       1,354,000

Total liabilities                                  3,114,000       2,866,000       2,705,000       2,512,000       2,438,000 

Stockholders' equity

Common stock                                          97,000          99,000          99,000         101,000         102,000
Additional paid-in capital                           918,000         865,000         876,000         765,000         787,000
Retained earnings                                   -878,000        -814,000        -241,000          83,000         200,000
Treasury stock                                             0         -55,000        -136,000        -136,000        -236,000
Accumulated other comprehensive income              -749,000        -766,000        -809,000        -543,000        -565,000
Total stockholders' equity                          -612,000        -671,000        -211,000         270,000         288,000
Total liabilities and stockholders' equity         2,502,000       2,195,000       2,494,000       2,782,000       2,726,000

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


MERITOR INC  (MTOR)                         Statement of CASH FLOW

Fiscal year ends in September. USD in thousa         2014-09         2015-09         2016-09         2017-09         2018-09             TTM           

Cash Flows From Operating Activities
Net income                                           284,000          66,000         579,000         329,000         129,000         288,000
Depreciation & amortization                           67,000          65,000          67,000          75,000          84,000          84,000
Investment/asset impairment charges                        0          17,000               0           4,000           3,000           2,000
Deferred income taxes                                 -2,000         -24,000        -415,000          38,000          74,000           9,000
Stock based compensation                               8,000          10,000           9,000          19,000          20,000               0
Change in working capital                             39,000         -24,000          16,000         -66,000         -18,000         -40,000
Accounts receivable                                   34,000          54,000          89,000        -160,000         -98,000               0
Inventory                                             -9,000           4,000          28,000         -43,000        -112,000               0
Accounts payable                                      -5,000         -70,000         -89,000         133,000          97,000               0
Other working capital                                 19,000         -12,000         -12,000           4,000          95,000         -40,000
Other non-cash items                                -181,000         -13,000         -52,000        -223,000         -41,000         -89,000
Net cash provided by operating activities            215,000          97,000         204,000         176,000         251,000         254,000

Cash Flows From Investing Activities
Investments in property, plant, and equipmen         -77,000         -79,000         -93,000         -95,000        -104,000        -115,000
Property, plant, and equipment reductions                  0           4,000           4,000               0               0               0
Acquisitions, net                                          0         -16,000               0         -34,000         213,000          -5,000
Other investing activities                             7,000           4,000           3,000           2,000           2,000          17,000
Net cash used for investing activities               -70,000         -87,000         -86,000        -127,000         111,000        -103,000

Cash Flows From Financing Activities
Debt issued                                          237,000         225,000               0         414,000               0               0
Debt repayment                                      -439,000        -199,000         -55,000        -511,000        -224,000         -24,000
Common stock repurchased                                   0         -55,000         -81,000               0        -100,000        -108,000
Other financing activities                           -10,000         -13,000         -16,000         -25,000          -5,000          -8,000
Net cash provided by (used for) financing           -212,000         -42,000        -152,000        -122,000        -329,000        -140,000

Effect of exchange rate changes                       -4,000         -22,000           1,000           1,000          -6,000               0
Net change in cash                                   -71,000         -54,000         -33,000         -72,000          27,000          11,000
Cash at beginning of period                          318,000         247,000         193,000         160,000          88,000         100,000
Cash at end of period                                247,000         193,000         160,000          88,000         115,000         111,000

Free Cash Flow
Operating cash flow                                  215,000          97,000         204,000         176,000         251,000         254,000
Capital expenditure                                  -77,000         -79,000         -93,000         -95,000        -104,000        -115,000
Free cash flow                                       138,000          18,000         111,000          81,000         147,000         139,000
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________





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Average to Current P/E Ratios
              (MTOR)     Meritor Inc.

                               2014    2015    2016    2017    2018

          Annual Earnings:     2.51    0.64    6.23    3.59    1.28
Average Price During Year:    12.35   12.86    9.06   18.71   21.26

                P/E Ratio:     4.92   20.10    1.45    5.21   16.61

 Average 5-Year P/E Ratio  =   9.66
             Current Price =  18.42

Previous 5 Quarter Earnings:   0.71    0.36    1.03    0.84    1.00

          Current Annualized (Last Four Quarters) Earnings =   2.87
                                                           ________
                                 Average PE / Current PE =     1.51
                                                           --------

                                      ...a number above 1.00 is good
                                                1.00 or below is bad


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Channeling Potential

 
The summary below includes a value for `Degree,' which refers on a
scale of 1 to 10 the range of a channel in the period under consi-
deration compared to the total range of price movement. It also looks
for the last closing price to be within the channel, otherwise zeroed.
The `Index' is the `Degree' weighted for volatility.  Generally, the
the higher the index, the more suitable is the stock for trading as
a `rolling stock' between channel high and low points.

Results for MERITOR INC.:
Symbol? MTOR
Total Months Available:  25
       Months in Cycle?   4

Months Covered by Periods:  12

Period 1           Period 2          Period 3
   H1      L1        H2      L2        H3      L3
  21.94   15.01     25.78   19.76     25.00   15.96

RANGE   =  25.78  TO   15.01            Close =  17.52
CHANNEL =  21.94  TO   19.76           Degree =   2
Volatility =  12.44%                    Index =   2
Channel Chart



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7 out of 10 favorable, (positive opinion.)

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Point & Figure Chart

P & F Chart


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Wall Street Analyzer



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Marketspace Chart

Marketspace Chart



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Time Series Forecast

Time Series 1 Time Series 2


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Neural Network Prediction

"Neurostock" can only track long trades. Therefore its performance, as tracked by itself on stocks which are consistently falling, may not appear as good as it could if each "sell" signal were a "short sale."

Neural Chart
Heading
Neural Trades Neural Prediction



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Ultimate Trading Systems

2 out of 3 of the ultimate systems favor an upmove.


System Below:
Short term outlook: Positive: Bright Green, Negative: Bright Red
Long term outlook: Postive: Dark Green, Negative: Dark Red.




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Recommendation

Decision Weighting Factors
FactorsWeighted Points
News + 1
Comparison - 1
Industry - 1
Bond Issue 0
Zenith Index + 1
Non-GAAP vs. GAAP Earnings - 1
Cash Flow + 1
Average to Current P/E + 1
Ratios + 1
Intrinsic Value DCF - 1
Fair Value Estimator + 1
Projected Earnings - 1
Research Reports - 1
Analysts - 1
Executive Perquisites - 1
Insider Activity - 1
Institutional Activity + 1
Management Reporting + 1
Short Interest + 1
Sentiment - 1
Standard & Poor's - 1
MACD Histogram Divergence + 1
Val Idea + 1
Stock Consultant - 1
Point & Figure - 1
Wall Street Analyzer + 1
Marketspace Chart + 1
Time Series Chart + 1
Neural Network + 1
Stock Options + 1
Ultimate Trading Systems + 1
Total + 3
Place 1,525 shares of Meritor, Inc.(MTOR) on the Active List.