06-10-2018: LGI Homes, Inc. (LGIH): Building Entry Level Homes All Over the U.S

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LGI Homes, Inc. .

LGI Homes, Inc. (LGIH) is a Texas-based nationwide home builder operating in many parts of the U.S. News on this company consists mainly of openings of new developments all over specializing in entry-level homes and communities. Founded in 2003, it has since become the nation's 15th-largest home builder. The real estate development industry group saw a rapid expansion and recovery after the financial crisis of 2008, when stock values sank but since had a long bull run recovery. For years, low interest rates allowed buyers to snap of bargains and reduce inventories, and have the money to buy expensive homes. Recently now the group as a whole appears to be leveling off while LGIH moves at full speed ahead.

LGIH is unusual in that it enjoyed a phenomenal revenue and earnings growth rate. It is the top "find" in this industry group for Market Grader. Standard & Poor's disagrees and gives the stock a low sell rating. Researchers and analysts are neutral to negative on the stock. But institutions are very heavy acquirers, recognizing value in the stock. The company does have high debt, but there is disagreement on how well it runs efficiently, has earnings quality, and is able to generate cash flow.

The stock has had a definite pullback, but we think the valuation is still there. We see earnings consistency and opportunity when comparing current to average p/e ratio. The question is how long LGIH can continue expanding at its present rate.

Executives seem fairly compensated, and the company has a good website, but we did not like the absence of a written CEO Letter to Shareholders, relying instead upon conference calls, a sign we take of lack of shareholder concern.

The stock appears to offer trading opportunities on pullbacks, but like most of the ones spotted by Market Grader, it is necessary to wait for upward momentum to build before jumping in because for whatever reason, sentiment is currently somewhat negative.

Our assessment of the real estate market is that it is booming, and the end of the rise of LGIH stock may not yet be in sight. Among things we don't see often among stock we review is high agreement in buy signals from the Val Idea "guru" methods and also the degree of incoming cash flow. Also, it has a high intrinsic value accoding to one source.

One problem associated with this type of development company is that land acquisition often runs into environmental and local concern problems. There were quite a few instances of this in areas where the company hoped to expand. 



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Zenith Index

Under current market conditions, a Zenith Index Score of 1.20 or above is required for a positive rating on this factor. 1.21 -1.30 is considered acceptable, 1.30-1.40 is considered strong and
> 1.40 is considered exceptionally strong. Accounting statements in this section often contain mistakes, especially in earlier years' totals, but data is deemed sufficient for us to give a rating. More accurate financial statements follow in the next section.

LGI Homes, Inc. (LGIH)                                    Exchange: Nasdaq
1450 Lake Robbins Drive
Suite 430                        Sector: Consumer Cyclical
The Woodlands, TX 77380          Industry:Residential Construction

LGI Homes, Inc. engages in the design, construction, and sale of new
homes in Texas, Arizona, Florida, Georgia, New Mexico, South Carolina,
North Carolina, Colorado, Washington, Tennessee, and Minnesota markets.
It offers entry-level homes, such as detached and townhomes, as well as
move-up homes under the LGI Homes brand name; and luxury series homes
under the Terrata Homes brand name. As of December 31, 2017, it owned 72
communities under the LGI Homes brand; and 6 under the Terrata Homes
brand. LGI Homes, Inc. was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in The
Woodlands, Texas.

Last Trade:  60.16                           52-Week Range:  81.88 -  34.44
Employees: 726                               Avg.Volume:     447,560 Shares

Corporate Governance:
Pllar scores are Audit: 1; Board: 6; Shareholder Rights: 6; Compensation: 3.
         (A lower number means less governance risk.)

EPS:  4.73    Dividend Amount: $ 0.00          Yield:  0.00%
             Ex-Dividend Date: N/A             Payout Ratio:   0.00

Key Statistics:

    Trailing P/E:  12.62              Forward P/E (est.):   7.94
                                           Target Price:  78.80

Qrtly Stock Price Growth (yoy):  66.23%               Beta:  -0.14
Qrtly S&P Index   Growth (yoy):  71.30%        Short Ratio:  15.04%
    Qrtly Revenue Growth (yoy):  13.91%         Shares Out:  22620000
   Qrtly Earnings Growth (yoy):   0.00%

          Book Value:  22.42                    Debt/Equity: 110.18%
    Price/Book Value:   2.66        Operating Profit Margin:  13.45%
         Price/Sales:   0.98                  Profit Margin:   9.38%
         Market Cap:   1,350,000,000       Return on Equity:  28.88%
    Enterprise Value:   1,870,000,000      Return on Assets:  11.33%

    Operating Cash Flow:   -132,210,000
         Free Cash Flow:   -122,560,000



Annual Income Statement:                          (All numbers in thousands)
  Period Ending                             12/31/2017  12/31/2016  12/31/2015

  Total Revenue                              1,257,960     838,320     630,236
  Cost of Revenue                              937,540     616,707     463,304
  Gross Profit                                 320,420     221,613     166,932

Operating Expenses:
  Research & Development                             0           0           0
  Selling, General & Administrative            150,619     110,142      87,258
  Non-Recurring Expenses                             0           0           0
  Other Operating Expenses                           0           0           0
  Total Operating Expenses                           0           0           0

Operating Income or Loss                       169,801     111,471      79,674

Income from Continuing Operations:
  Total Other Income/Expenses Net                1,601       2,201         606
  Earnings Before Interest & Taxes             171,402     113,672      80,280
  Interest Expense                                   0           0           0
  Income Before Taxes                          171,402     113,672      80,280
  Income Tax Expense                            58,096      38,641      27,450
  Minority Interest                                  0           0           0

Net Income from Continuing Op.s                113,306      75,031      52,830

Non-recurring Events:
  Discontinued Operations                            0           0           0
  Extraordinary Items                                0           0           0
  Effect of Accounting Changes                       0           0           0
  Other Items                                        0           0           0
  Net Income                                   113,306      75,031      52,830
  Preferred Stock & Other Adjustments                0           0           0

Net Income Avail to Common Shares              113,306      75,031      52,830



Annual Cash Flow Statement:                   (All numbers in thousands)
  Period Ending                         12/31/2017    12/31/2016    12/31/2015

  Net Income                               113,306        75,031        52,830

Operating Activities:
  Depreciation                                 791         1,089           883
  Adjustments to Net Income                  2,109           697         2,274
  Changes in Accounts Recv'bls             -27,651           270        -9,960
  Changes in Liabilities                    60,445        -3,208        18,442
  Changes in Investories                  -200,609      -183,884      -151,707
  Changes in other Oper'g Acts             -16,858         1,822        -1,918

Total Cash Flow f Operations               -68,467      -108,183       -89,156

Investing Activities:
  Capital Exenditures                         -518          -722        -1,117
  Investments                                    0             0             0
  Other Cash Flows fr Investing                  0             0             0

Total Cash Flows from Investing               -518          -722        -1,117

Financing Activities:
  Dividends Paid                                 0             0             0
  Sale of Purchase of Stock                 17,061        29,244         9,174
  Net Borrowings                            70,625        92,316        88,358
  Other Cash Flows fr Financing               -648          -705             0

Total Cash Flows from Financing             87,038       120,855        96,471

  Effect of Exchange Rate Chg                    0             0             0

Change in Cash & Cash Equiv.                18,053        11,950         6,198



Annual Balance Sheets:                              (All Numbers in Thousands)
  Period Ending                          12/31/2017    12/31/2016    12/31/2015
Current Assets:
  Cash & Cash Equivalents                    67,571        49,518        37,568
  Short Term Investments                          0             0             0
  Net Receivables                            46,634        17,055        17,325
  Inventory                                 918,933       717,681       531,228
  Other Current Assets                            0             0             0
  Total Current Assets                    1,033,138       784,254       586,121

  Long-Term Investments                           0             0             0
  Property, Plant & Equipt                    1,674         1,960         2,108
  Goodwill                                   12,018        12,018             0
  Intangible Assets                               0             0        12,234
  Accumulated Amortization                        0             0             0
  Other Assets                               33,062        16,282        18,239
  Deferred LT Asset Charges                       0             0             0

Total Assets                              1,079,892       814,514       618,702

Current Liabilities:
  Accounts Payable                          114,851        58,666        64,026
  Current Portion LT Debt                         0             0             0
  Other Current Liabilities                       0             0             0
  Total Current Liabilities                 114,851        58,666         64,026

  Long Term Debt                            114,851        58,666        64,026
  Other Liabilities                               0             0             0
  Deferred LT Liab. Charges                       0             0             0
  Minority Interest                               0             0             0
  Negative Goodwill                               0             0             0

Total Liabilities                           590,210       459,149       371,313

Stockholder Equity:
  Misc. Options, Warrants                         0             0             0
  Redeemable Preferred Stock                      0             0             0
  Preferred Stock                                 0             0             0
  Common Stock                                  228           223           213
  Retained Earnings                         276,488       163,182        88,151
  Treasury Stock                            -16,550       -16,550       -16,550
  Capital Surplus                           229,680       208,346       175,575
  Other Stockhohlder Equity                       0             0             0
  Total Stockholder Equity                  489,846       355,201       247,389

Net Tangible Assets                         477,828       343,183       235,155


LGI Homes, Inc. (LGIH)                      [Indices near +3.0, near zero,
                                            or < zero bear special attention.]
P/E Ratio Tests:
P/E Ratio < 28?            2.2187          P/E Ratio > 5?             1.0000
P/E Ratio Vs Growth Rate:  0.0000          Forward P/E Ratio < 28?    3.0000
Price/Sales Ratio < 2.3?   2.3469          Inventory/Sales < 5%?      0.0684
Sales < $1 Billion?        0.7949          Operating Margin < 7.5%?   0.5576

Balance Sheet Tests:
Debt/Equity < 0.40?        0.3630          Long-Term Debt Service:    1.0305
LTD Being Reduced?        -3.0000          Short-Term Debt Service:   3.0000
Current Ratio > 2?         3.0000          Working Capital >= 1.5?    0.1690
Leverage Ratio < 20%?      0.4348          Debt/Assets < 1?           2.2725
Quick Ratio > 1?           3.0000          Inventory Turnover > 1?    1.0000
Share Equity Increase:     2.8149          Market Cap.< 1.5 Billion?  1.1111
                                           Intangibles < 3% Assets?   2.6957
Income Tests:
Profit Margin < 7.5%?      1.2506          EPS Annual Growth > 10%?   0.0662
Dividend Yield > 2.0%?     0.0000          EPS 3-yr Growth > 15?      0.0699
Enterprise Value/Revenue   1.0735          EPS Growth Consistent?     2.0000
Enterprise Value/EBITDA:   3.0000          Collection < 45 days?      3.0000
EPS Qrtly Growth > 10%?    0.0000          Gross Pft/Cur. LTD > 1?    3.0000
                                           Borrowing Int. Rate < 6%?  3.0000
Stock Performance Tests:
Volatility > 25%?          2.3175          % Held by Insiders < 5%?   0.2743
Beta > 1.25?              -0.1120          % Held by Institut. < 50?  0.5418
50 Da MA > 200 Da MA?     -0.1411          % Held by Institut. > 30?  3.0000
52-Wk Change vs. S&P 500:  3.0000          Short Ratio > 5?           3.0000
Price/Book Value < 3?      1.1180          Short % of Float > 20?     1.9465
Return on Assets > 17%?    0.6665          Average Volume > 100,000?  3.0000

Cash Flow Tests:
Oper. C.F. > Lever'd C.F:  1.0787          Positive Free Cash Flow?  -1.0000
Positive Oper. Cash Flow? -1.0000          Price to C.F.Ratio < 14?:  1.6180
                                           Cash Flow / Assets > 10%?  1.4448

LGIH   LGI Homes, Inc.                     Overall Zenith Index:      1.3284


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Financial Statements

LGI HOMES INC  (LGIH)                       INCOME STATEMENT

Fiscal year ends in December.                        2013-12         2014-12         2015-12         2016-12         2017-12             TTM           

Revenue                                          162,795,696     383,268,000     630,236,032     838,320,000   1,257,959,936   1,374,072,960
Cost of revenue                                  121,325,536     280,480,992     463,304,000     616,707,008     937,539,968   1,027,892,992
Gross profit                                      41,470,168     102,787,000     166,932,000     221,612,992     320,420,000     346,180,000


Operating expenses
Sales, General and administrative                 29,372,736      60,416,000      87,258,000     110,142,000     150,619,008     161,636,000
Total operating expenses                          29,372,736      60,416,000      87,258,000     110,142,000     150,619,008     161,636,000

Operating income                                  12,097,431      42,371,000      79,674,000     111,471,000     169,800,992     184,544,000
Interest Expense                                      50,946               0               0               0               0               0
Other income (expense)                            10,756,842         708,000         606,000       2,201,000       1,601,000       1,243,000
Income before taxes                               22,803,328      43,079,000      80,280,000     113,672,000     171,402,000     185,787,008
Provision for income taxes                         1,066,072      14,868,000      27,450,000      38,641,000      58,096,000      56,959,000
Net income from continuing operations             21,737,256      28,211,000      52,830,000      75,031,000     113,306,000     128,828,000
Other                                                589,818               0               0               0               0               0
Net income                                        22,327,072      28,211,000      52,830,000      75,031,000     113,306,000     128,828,000
Net income available to common shareholders       22,327,072      28,211,000      52,830,000      75,031,000     113,306,000     128,828,000

Earnings per share
Basic                                                   1.08            1.37            2.65            3.61            5.24            5.92 
Diluted                                                 1.08            1.33            2.44            3.41            4.73            5.31 

Weighted average shares outstanding
Basic                                             20,763,448      20,666,758      19,939,760      20,798,332      21,604,932      21,811,920
Diluted                                           20,763,448      21,202,968      21,740,720      22,024,092      23,933,122      24,429,216

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


LGI HOMES INC  (LGIH)                       BALANCE SHEET

Fiscal year ends in December.                        2013-12         2014-12         2015-12         2016-12         2017-12             

Assets

Current assets

Cash

Total cash                                        54,068,732      31,370,000      37,568,000      49,518,000      67,571,000

Receivables                                        5,401,851       7,365,000      17,325,000      17,055,000      44,706,000
Inventories                                      141,982,752     367,908,000     531,228,000     717,681,024     918,932,992
Prepaid expenses                                   3,703,293       9,878,000       7,001,000      10,651,000      18,866,000
Other current assets                                  28,236               0               0               0               0
Total current assets                             205,184,864     416,520,992     593,121,984     794,905,024   1,050,076,032

Non-current assets

Property, plant and equipment
Gross property, plant and equipment                1,521,439       2,577,000       3,662,000       4,381,000       4,822,000
Accumulated Depreciation                            -676,732        -967,000      -1,554,000      -2,421,000      -3,148,000
Net property, plant and equipment                    844,707       1,610,000       2,108,000       1,960,000       1,674,000

Intangible assets                                 12,727,608      12,481,000      12,234,000      12,018,000      12,018,000
Deferred income taxes                                287,781               0               0               0       1,928,000
Other long-term assets                             1,964,631       7,515,000      14,869,000       5,631,000      14,196,000
Total non-current assets                          15,824,727      21,606,000      29,211,000      19,609,000      29,816,000

Total assets                                     221,009,584     438,127,008     622,332,992     814,513,984   1,079,891,968 

Liabilities and stockholders' equity

Liabilities

Current liabilities
Accounts payable                                  14,000,155      15,479,000      24,020,000      12,277,000      12,020,000
Taxes payable                                      1,553,683       1,448,000       6,205,000       5,040,000      48,733,000
Accrued liabilities                                5,216,505      14,787,000      25,192,000      25,043,000      27,611,000
Deferred revenues                                    330,030               0               0               0               0
Other current liabilities                                  0       5,130,000       8,609,000      16,306,000      26,487,000
Total current liabilities                         21,100,372      36,844,000      64,026,000      58,666,000     114,851,000

Non-current liabilities
Long-term debt                                    35,535,260     216,099,008     308,192,000     400,483,008     475,195,008
Deferred taxes liabilities                                 0       2,685,000       2,726,000         164,000               0
Total non-current liabilities                     35,535,260     218,784,000     310,918,016     400,647,008     475,195,008

Total liabilities                                 56,635,632     255,628,000     374,944,000     459,312,992     590,046,016 

Stockholders' equity

Common stock                                         207,634         208,000         213,000         223,000         228,000
Additional paid-in capital                       157,056,192     163,520,000     175,575,008     208,346,000     229,680,000
Retained earnings                                  7,110,126      35,321,000      88,151,000     163,182,000     276,488,000
Treasury stock                                             0     -16,550,000     -16,550,000     -16,550,000     -16,550,000
Total stockholders' equity                       164,373,952     182,499,008     247,388,992     355,200,992     489,846,016
Total liabilities and stockholders' equity       221,009,584     438,127,008     622,332,992     814,513,984   1,079,891,968

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


LGI HOMES INC  (LGIH)                       Statement of CASH FLOW

Fiscal year ends in December. USD.                   2013-12         2014-12         2015-12         2016-12         2017-12             TTM           

Cash Flows From Operating Activities
Net income                                        21,737,256      28,211,000      52,830,000      75,031,000     113,306,000     128,828,000
Depreciation & amortization                          291,611         825,000         883,000       1,089,000         791,000         760,000
Deferred income taxes                               -287,781           1,000          42,000      -2,562,000      -2,092,000      -2,137,000
Stock based compensation                              42,814         862,000       2,279,000       3,396,000       4,188,000       4,309,000
Change in working capital                        -71,027,240    -202,771,008    -145,143,008    -185,000,000    -184,672,992    -264,144,000
Accounts receivable                               -3,870,924      -1,963,000      -9,960,000         270,000     -27,651,000      -4,510,000
Inventory                                        -74,595,552    -198,356,992    -151,707,008    -183,884,000    -200,608,992    -250,652,000
Prepaid expenses                                  -2,705,418      -6,066,000       2,877,000      -3,650,000      -8,215,000               0
Accounts payable                                   5,827,258       1,480,000       9,630,000     -11,747,000        -257,000       5,817,000
Accrued liabilities                                4,031,268       2,752,000       8,812,000       8,539,000      60,702,000      11,187,000
Other working capital                                286,126        -617,000      -4,795,000       5,472,000      -8,643,000     -25,986,000
Other non-cash items                              -5,245,139        -342,000         -47,000        -137,000          13,000         177,000
Net cash provided by operating activities        -54,488,480    -173,214,000     -89,156,000    -108,183,000     -68,467,000    -132,207,000

Cash Flows From Investing Activities
Investments in property, plant, and equipmen        -684,448      -1,195,000      -1,117,000        -722,000        -518,000        -500,000
Acquisitions, net                                          0     -15,169,000               0               0               0               0
Purchases of investments                         -31,067,000               0               0               0               0               0
Other investing activities                           492,554               0               0               0               0               0
Net cash used for investing activities           -31,258,894     -16,364,000      -1,117,000        -722,000        -518,000        -500,000

Cash Flows From Financing Activities
Debt issued                                       72,931,976     232,400,000     245,382,000     140,000,000     100,000,000     185,000,000
Debt repayment                                   -52,041,784     -43,531,000    -154,786,000     -45,000,000     -25,000,000               0
Common stock issued                              105,170,400               0       9,593,000      29,448,000      17,130,000      12,900,000
Common stock repurchased                                   0     -16,550,000               0               0               0               0
Excess tax benefit from stock based compe                  0         356,000          47,000         138,000               0               0
Dividend paid                                     -9,111,206               0               0               0               0               0
Other financing activities                        15,797,250      -5,796,000      -3,765,000      -3,731,000      -5,092,000     -44,817,000
Net cash provided by (used for) financing        132,746,640     166,879,008      96,471,000     120,855,000      87,038,000     153,083,008

Net change in cash                                46,999,264     -22,699,000       6,198,000      11,950,000      18,053,000      20,376,000
Cash at beginning of period                        7,069,471      54,069,000      31,370,000      37,568,000      49,518,000      31,648,000
Cash at end of period                             54,068,732      31,370,000      37,568,000      49,518,000      67,571,000      52,024,000

Free Cash Flow
Operating cash flow                              -54,488,480    -173,214,000     -89,156,000    -108,183,000     -68,467,000    -132,207,000
Capital expenditure                                 -684,448      -1,195,000      -1,117,000        -722,000        -518,000        -500,000
Free cash flow                                   -55,172,928    -174,408,992     -90,273,000    -108,905,000     -68,985,000    -132,707,000
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________





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Average to Current P/E Ratios
              (LGIH)     LGI Homes Inc.

                               2013    2014    2015    2016    2017

          Annual Earnings:     0.34    1.33    2.43    3.41    4.73
Average Price During Year:    17.09   17.19   26.69   31.92   54.80

                P/E Ratio:    50.26   12.92   10.98    9.36   11.59

 Average 5-Year P/E Ratio  =  19.02
             Current Price =  62.28

Previous 5 Quarter Earnings:   0.52    1.39    1.40    1.43    1.10

           Current Annualized (Last Four Quarters) Earnings =   3.93
                                                           ________
                                 Average PE / Current PE =     1.20
                                                           --------

                                      ...a number above 1.00 is good
                                                1.00 or below is bad


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Financial Ratios

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Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Intrinsic Value by Discounted Cash Flow Method:

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Fair Value Estimator

Fair Value Estimate:

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Projected Earnings

Earnings Estimates
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Research Reports

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Analysts' Opinions

Analysts' Opinion 1
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Insider Activity

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Institutional Activity

Institutional Orders to Buy or Sell:

institutions 1
Ownership:

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Sentiment

sentiment

Zenith uses the "sentiment" score above or below 50 to award a positive or negative point in the Decision Matrix.

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Short Interest Ratio

As the short interest rises as a percentage of average daily share volume (Days to Cover), this is considered a measure of negative sentiment. Similarly, a decrease in that percentage is considered positive sentiment.

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Standard & Poor's

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Management's Discussion of Results of Operations Excerpts

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Channeling Potential

 
The summary below includes a value for `Degree,' which refers on a
scale of 1 to 10 the range of a channel in the period under consi-
deration compared to the total range of price movement. It also looks
for the last closing price to be within the channel, otherwise zeroed.
The `Index' is the `Degree' weighted for volatility.  Generally, the
the higher the index, the more suitable is the stock for trading as
a `rolling stock' between channel high and low points.

Results for LGI HOMES INC.:
Symbol? LGIH
Total Months Available:  55
       Months in Cycle?   4

Months Covered by Periods:  12

Period 1           Period 2          Period 3
   H1      L1        H2      L2        H3      L3
  50.95   34.44     79.55   49.88     81.88   55.34

RANGE   =  81.88  TO   34.44            Close =  60.80
CHANNEL =  55.34  TO   50.95           Degree =   1
Volatility =   7.22%                    Index =   0
Channel Chart



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MACD Histogram Divergence

The theory is that connecting the two most recent peaks or valleys of the MACD histogram will signal the direction of the next major move.



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Intraday Chart

2 Days:



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Val Idea

6 out of 8 favorable, (positive opinion.)

Val Idea


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Stock Consultant

Stock Consultant Stock Consultant


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Point & Figure Chart

P & F Chart


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Wall Street Analyzer






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Marketspace Chart

Marketspace Chart



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Time Series Forecast

Time Series 1 Time Series 2


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Neural Network Prediction

"Neurostock" can only track long trades. Therefore its performance, as tracked by itself on stocks which are consistently falling, may not appear as good as it could if each "sell" signal were a "short sale."

Neural Chart
Heading
Neural Trades Neural Prediction



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Ultimate Trading Systems

3 out of 3 of the ultimate systems favor a downmove.


System Below:
Short term outlook: Positive: Bright Green, Negative: Bright Red
Long term outlook: Postive: Dark Green, Negative: Dark Red.




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Recommendation

Decision Weighting Factors
FactorsWeighted Points
News + 1
Comparison - 1
Industry - 1
Bond Issue + 1
Zenith Index + 1
Non-GAAP vs. GAAP Earnings - 1
Cash Flow + 1
Average to Current P/E + 1
Ratios + 1
Market Grader + 1
Intrinsic Value DCF 0
Fair Value Estimator + 1
Projected Earnings + 1
Research Reports - 1
Analysts - 1
Executive Perquisites + 1
Insider Activity - 1
Institutional Activity + 1
Management Reporting + 1
Short Interest + 1
Sentiment - 1
Standard & Poor's - 1
MACD Histogram Divergence + 1
Val Idea + 1
Stock Consultant + 1
Point & Figure - 1
Wall Street Analyzer - 1
Marketspace Chart + 1
Time Series Chart + 1
Neural Network + 1
Stock Options + 1
Ultimate Trading Systems - 1
Total + 9
Place 480 shares of LGI Homes, Inc. (LGIH) on the Active List.