10-04-2017: Triple-S Management Corporation (GTS): Healthcare, Property, and Casualty Insurance in Puerto Rico

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Recommendation

Triple-S Management Corporation

Triple-S Management Corporation (GTS) provides healthcare insurance across various Caribbean islands including Puerto Rico and also Costa Rica. The "S"'s in the "triple" refer to the Spanish word "salud" meaning health. Thus it is mainly a health insurance company tied in with Blue Cross. Perhaps unfortunately for the company, it also offers as a lesser paying revenue sideline, property and casualty insurance for small and medium sized commercial and individual accounts. It gets most of its revenue from Puerto Rico where it is based. The company's stock recently received a big surge on expectedly high earnings, but that was right before Hurricane Maria hit Puerto Rico dead on with one of the worst natural disasters in U.S. history. Since that time, the stock has shown some weakness but also some resilience for reasons unexplained.

The company website has some bugs so that much of it is in English and Spanish, but some English portions do not work and they are all in Spanish. The company appears to be fundamentally very solid, yet gets a mixed bag of reviews from researchers. Market Grader has it as a "sell" but Standard & Poor's gives it their highest five-star rating. The Zenith Index is very strong. The company has high growth potential and intrinsic value.

Institutions are net sellers, but Dimensional Fund Advisors is prominent among holders, which we regard as a good sign.

Corporate governance seems good. Management reporting is good. Analysts are skeptical to negative. Our ultimate decision to make this a "buy" stock is somewhat marginal.

The health insurance industry stock outlook is strong in our opinion although uncertainty about what the Government will do regarding the Affordable Healthcare Act provides an overhanging cloud. Puero Rico's own governmental restrictions also pose some uncertainty.

They were okay until "Maria," but now it is too early to see what claims will come in to affect future earnings. News is somewhat sparse on this company but it does meet all U.S. SEC reporting requirements, yet still serves some emerging markets.

The stock had a somewhat bland slowly trending down existence until a recent blip drove it up to historic resistance levels around year-ago levels.

Despite Puerto Rico's contractive fiscal policy, the company achieved progrss in its operational matters, clinical initiatives and allocated more capital to technology.

At-risk member enrollment is about 4 million.



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Zenith Index

Under current market conditions, a Zenith Index Score of 1.20 or above is required for a positive rating on this factor. 1.21 -1.30 is considered acceptable, 1.30-1.40 is considered strong and
> 1.40 is considered exceptionally strong. Accounting statements in this section often contain mistakes, especially in earlier years' totals, but data is deemed sufficient for us to give a rating. More accurate financial statements follow in the next section.

Triple-S Management Corporation (GTS)                     Exchange: NYSE
1441 F.D. Roosevelt Avenue
San Juan, PR 00936               Sector: Financial
United States                    Industry:Accident & Health Insurance

Triple-S Management Corporation, through its subsidiaries, provides a
portfolio of managed care and related products in the commercial,
Medicare, and Medicaid markets in Puerto Rico, the United States. The
company operates through three segments: Managed Care, Life Insurance,
and Property and Casualty Insurance. It offers various managed care
products, including health maintenance organization plans; preferred
provider organization plans; BlueCard program; Medicare Supplement
products; Medicare Part D, a prescription drug plan; Medicare Advantage
products; Medicaid plans; and claims processing and other administrative
services. The company provides its managed care products to employers,
professional and trade associations, individuals, and government
entities. It also offers various life, accident, disability, and health
and annuity insurance products primarily to individuals; and property
and casualty insurance products, which include commercial multi-peril
package, auto physical damage, personal package, commercial auto,
hospital malpractice, commercial liability, and commercial property
products to small and medium size accounts. The company markets and
distributes its products through a network of internal sales force,
direct mail, independent brokers and agents, telemarketing staff,
traditional media, and digital media. Triple-S Management Corporation
was founded in 1959 and is headquartered in San Juan, Puerto Rico.


Last Trade:  23.68                           52-Week Range:  25.41 -  15.05
Employees: 3,414                             Avg.Volume:     153,095 Shares

Corporate Governance:
Pillar scores are Audit: 2; Board: 3; Shareholder Rights: 9; Compensation: 2.
         (A lower number means less governance risk.)

EPS:  0.75    Dividend Amount: $ 0.00          Yield:  0.00%
             Ex-Dividend Date: N/A             Payout Ratio:   0.00

Key Statistics:

    Trailing P/E:  32.14              Forward P/E (est.):  14.20
                                           Target Price:  20.00

Qrtly Stock Price Growth (yoy):  10.09%               Beta:   0.04
Qrtly S&P Index   Growth (yoy):  -0.90%        Short Ratio:   5.47%
    Qrtly Revenue Growth (yoy):  17.15%         Shares Out:  23160000
   Qrtly Earnings Growth (yoy):   0.00%

          Book Value:  36.49                    Debt/Equity:   3.81%
    Price/Book Value:   0.66        Operating Profit Margin:   0.30%
         Price/Sales:   0.20                  Profit Margin:   0.63%
         Market Cap:     582,151,000       Return on Equity:   2.09%
    Enterprise Value:     431,910,000      Return on Assets:   0.23%

    Operating Cash Flow:    150,740,000
         Free Cash Flow:    133,970,000



Annual Income Statement:                          (All numbers in thousands)
  Period Ending                             12/31/2016  12/31/2015  12/31/2014

  Total Revenue                              2,984,806   2,902,736   2,320,114
  Cost of Revenue                            2,472,191   2,318,715   1,747,595
  Gross Profit                                 512,615     584,021     572,519

Operating Expenses:
  Research & Development                             0           0           0
  Selling, General & Administrative                  0           0           0
  Non-Recurring Expenses                             0           0           0
  Other Operating Expenses                     493,894     518,721     497,194
  Total Operating Expenses                           0           0           0

Operating Income or Loss                        18,721      65,300      75,325

Income from Continuing Operations:
  Total Other Income/Expenses Net                    0           0           0
  Earnings Before Interest & Taxes              18,721      65,300      75,325
  Interest Expense                               7,635       8,169       9,274
  Income Before Taxes                           11,086      57,131      66,051
  Income Tax Expense                            -6,345       5,099         745
  Minority Interest                               -677        -670        -532

Net Income from Continuing Op.s                 17,431      52,032      65,306

Non-recurring Events:
  Discontinued Operations                            0           0           0
  Extraordinary Items                                0           0           0
  Effect of Accounting Changes                       0           0           0
  Other Items                                        0           0           0
  Net Income                                    17,438      52,121      65,660
  Preferred Stock & Other Adjustments                0           0           0

Net Income Avail to Common Shares               17,438      52,121      65,660



Annual Cash Flow Statement:                   (All numbers in thousands)
  Period Ending                         12/31/2016    12/31/2015    12/31/2014

  Net Income                                17,431        52,032        65,306

Operating Activities:
  Depreciation                              22,791        23,233        30,491
  Adjustments to Net Income                -17,847         6,090       -19,337
  Changes in Accounts Recv'bls              -5,320         6,399       -45,046
  Changes in Liabilities                    14,332        45,223        33,139
  Changes in Investories                         0             0             0
  Changes in other Oper'g Acts             -24,916        96,117       -26,562

Total Cash Flow f Operations                 6,471       229,094        37,991

Investing Activities:
  Capital Exenditures                       -4,750        -9,094        -4,783
  Investments                              -81,549       -42,282        34,024
  Other Cash Flows fr Investing                  0             0             0

Total Cash Flows from Investing            -86,299       -51,376        29,241

Financing Activities:
  Dividends Paid                                 0             0             0
  Sale of Purchase of Stock                -21,371       -48,287       -11,337
  Net Borrowings                            10,508       -39,426       -19,693
  Other Cash Flows fr Financing             -3,699        -2,224             0

Total Cash Flows from Financing            -14,562       -89,937       -31,551

  Effect of Exchange Rate Chg                    0             0             0

Change in Cash & Cash Equiv.               -94,390        87,781        35,681




Annual Balance Sheets:                              (All Numbers in Thousands)
  Period Ending                          12/31/2016    12/31/2015    12/31/2014
Current Assets:
  Cash & Cash Equivalents                   103,428       197,818       110,037
  Short Term Investments                          0             0             0
  Net Receivables                           286,365       282,646       315,622
  Inventory                                       0             0             0
  Other Current Assets                            0             0             0
  Total Current Assets                      389,793       480,464       425,659

  Long-Term Investments                   1,433,392     1,341,546     1,323,859
  Property, Plant & Equipt                   66,369        73,953        78,343
  Goodwill                                   25,397        25,397        25,397
  Intangible Assets                               0             0             0
  Accumulated Amortization                        0             0             0
  Other Assets                               51,493        41,776        39,683
  Deferred LT Asset Charges                 252,555       243,009       252,795

Total Assets                              2,218,999     2,206,145     2,145,736

Current Liabilities:
  Accounts Payable                          169,449       176,910       162,458
  Current Portion LT Debt                         0             0             0
  Other Current Liabilities                       0             0             0
  Total Current Liabilities                 169,449       176,910        162,458

  Long Term Debt                            169,449       176,910       162,458
  Other Liabilities                               0             0             0
  Deferred LT Liab. Charges                       0             0             0
  Minority Interest                            -677          -670          -532
  Negative Goodwill                            -677          -670          -532

Total Liabilities                         1,352,056     1,343,549     1,287,178

Stockholder Equity:
  Misc. Options, Warrants                         0             0             0
  Redeemable Preferred Stock                      0             0             0
  Preferred Stock                                 0             0             0
  Common Stock                               24,272        24,999        27,032
  Retained Earnings                         730,904       713,466       661,345
  Treasury Stock                                  0             0             0
  Capital Surplus                            65,592        83,438       121,405
  Other Stockhohlder Equity                  42,395        25,623        48,776
  Total Stockholder Equity                  863,163       847,526       858,558

Net Tangible Assets                         837,766       822,129       833,161



Triple-S Management Corporation (GTS)       [Indices near +3.0, near zero,
                                            or < zero bear special attention.]
P/E Ratio Tests:
P/E Ratio < 28?            0.8712          P/E Ratio > 5?             1.0000
P/E Ratio Vs Growth Rate:  0.0000          Forward P/E Ratio < 28?    1.9718
Price/Sales Ratio < 2.3?   3.0000          Inventory/Sales < 5%?      1.0000
Sales < $1 Billion?        0.3350          Operating Margin < 7.5%?   3.0000

Balance Sheet Tests:
Debt/Equity < 0.40?        3.0000          Long-Term Debt Service:    3.0000
LTD Being Reduced?         3.0000          Short-Term Debt Service:   2.4520
Current Ratio > 2?         1.1502          Working Capital >= 1.5?    0.6608
Leverage Ratio < 20%?      2.2220          Debt/Assets < 1?           3.0000
Quick Ratio > 1?           3.0000          Inventory Turnover > 1?    1.0000
Share Equity Increase:     2.0056          Market Cap.< 1.5 Billion?  2.5767
                                           Intangibles < 3% Assets?   2.6212
Income Tests:
Profit Margin < 7.5%?      0.0840          EPS Annual Growth > 10%?   0.2989
Dividend Yield > 2.0%?     0.0000          EPS 3-yr Growth > 15?      0.5648
Enterprise Value/Revenue   0.1950          EPS Growth Consistent?    -2.0000
Enterprise Value/EBITDA:   3.0000          Collection < 45 days?      1.2850
EPS Qrtly Growth > 10%?    0.0000          Gross Pft/Cur. LTD > 1?    3.0000
                                           Borrowing Int. Rate < 6%?  0.2757
Stock Performance Tests:
Volatility > 25%?          1.6309          % Held by Insiders < 5%?   2.8736
Beta > 1.25?               0.0320          % Held by Institut. < 50?  0.5876
50 Da MA > 200 Da MA?      0.6448          % Held by Institut. > 30?  2.8363
52-Wk Change vs. S&P 500:  0.5883          Short Ratio > 5?           1.0940
Price/Book Value < 3?      3.0000          Short % of Float > 20?     0.0750
Return on Assets > 17%?    0.0135          Average Volume > 100,000?  1.5309

Cash Flow Tests:
Oper. C.F. > Lever'd C.F:  1.1252          Positive Free Cash Flow?   3.0000
Positive Oper. Cash Flow?  3.0000          Price to C.F.Ratio < 14?:  2.5812
                                           Cash Flow / Assets > 10%?  0.4837

GTS    Triple-S Management Corporation     Overall Zenith Index:      1.4796


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Financial Statements

Income Statement:

Balance Sheet:

Cash Flow Statement:





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Average to Current P/E Ratios
              (GTS)     Triple-S Management Corp. Cl B

                               2012    2013    2014    2015    2016

          Annual Earnings:     1.90    2.01    2.41    2.02    0.71
Average Price During Year:    20.25   19.07   18.35   22.06   23.86

                P/E Ratio:    10.66    9.49    7.61   10.92   33.60

 Average 5-Year P/E Ratio  =  14.46
             Current Price =  24.14

Previous 5 Quarter Earnings:   0.16   -0.08    0.50   -0.18    0.52

           Current Annualized (Last Four Quarters) Earnings =  .84
                                                           ________
                                 Average PE / Current PE =     0.50
                                                           --------

                                      ...a number above 1.00 is good
                                                1.00 or below is bad


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Institutional Orders to Buy or Sell:

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Sentiment

sentiment

Zenith uses the "sentiment" score above or below 50 to award a positive or negative point in the Decision Matrix.

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Short Interest Ratio

As the short interest rises as a percentage of average daily share volume (Days to Cover), this is considered a measure of negative sentiment. Similarly, a decrease in that percentage is considered positive sentiment.

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Channeling Potential

 
The summary below includes a value for `Degree,' which refers on a
scale of 1 to 10 the range of a channel in the period under consi-
deration compared to the total range of price movement. It also looks
for the last closing price to be within the channel, otherwise zeroed.
The `Index' is the `Degree' weighted for volatility.  Generally, the
the higher the index, the more suitable is the stock for trading as
a `rolling stock' between channel high and low points.

Results for TRIPLE-S MANAGEMENT CORP.:
Symbol? GTS
Total Months Available: 118
       Months in Cycle?   4

Months Covered by Periods:  12

Period 1           Period 2          Period 3
   H1      L1        H2      L2        H3      L3
  23.92   18.62     20.10   15.81     25.41   15.05

RANGE   =  25.41  TO   15.05            Close =  23.68
CHANNEL =  20.10  TO   18.62           Degree =   1
Volatility =   6.25%                    Index =   0
Channel Chart



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2 Days:



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Val Idea

4 out of 8 favorable, (neutral opinion.)

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2 out of 3 of the ultimate systems favor an upmove.


System Below:
Short term outlook: Positive: Bright Green, Negative: Bright Red
Long term outlook: Postive: Dark Green, Negative: Dark Red.




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Recommendation

Decision Weighting Factors
FactorsWeighted Points
News - 1
Comparison - 1
Industry + 1
Bond Issue 0
Zenith Index + 1
Non-GAAP vs. GAAP Earnings - 1
Cash Flow + 1
Average to Current P/E - 1
Ratios + 1
Market Grader - 1
Intrinsic Value DCF + 1
Tangible Book Value + 1
Projected Earnings + 1
Research Reports - 1
Analysts - 1
Executive Perquisites + 1
Insider Activity - 1
Institutional Activity - 1
Management Reporting + 1
Short Interest + 1
Sentiment + 1
Standard & Poor's + 1
Moving Average - 1
Right Time Study - 1
MACD Histogram Divergence - 1
Val Idea 0
Stock Consultant - 1
Point & Figure + 1
Wall Street Analyzer + 1
Marketspace Chart - 1
Time Series Chart + 1
Neural Network + 1
Stock Options - 1
Ultimate Trading Systems + 1
Total + 2
Place 1,270 shares of Triple-S Management Corp. (GTS) on the Active List.