06-10-2020: Glu Mobile, Inc. (GLUU): Analysts Like It... But...

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Recommendation

Glu Mobile, Inc.

glu Mobile, Inc. (GLUU) is a maker of computer games. These it sells directly to individuals through various ap stores.

We were frankly not impressed with the company's website. Many features were designed for the latest operating systems and limited in whether or not they could work on older ones. There was no CEO Letter to Shareholders and some previous class action lawsuits related to "guidance" provided in conference calls. There was no glitzy annual report. The company website was very limited in describing the company, mainly touting excellent working conditions for potential employees.

The company has had a string of previous losses, although the financial ratios do not all look too bad, as the company has limited debt. It has recently diluted share value with new share offerings. Management is compensated with stock options.

Researchers do not like the stock, and sentiment while strong, is coupled with technical indicators favoring a downmove. The company has had several recent patents and needs to protect its products against copyright violators.

The stock does have support from several analysts, but researchers are generally negative. Institutions are net acquirers. Insiders are only selling.

The stock recently broke out of a channeling range. This was on prospects of improving earnings. Our assessment is that this stock would probably make a better short than a buy and hold. But its share price has doubled in the past year and it is quite volatile even without the pandemic. A gap down occurred in early August, 2019. It amounted to 41% of the share price and news indicated it was due to delay in release of new games, particular Disney's "Socerer's Arena." We think this shows great weakness potential for this company. Judging from its website, we think it needs better programming, and more than just direct marketing to individual customers. 



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Bond Issue

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Zenith Index

Why all the zeros? Zenith has relied on Yahoo Finance for data to provide the Zenith Index in this particular format, but Yahoo is one of the worst and least dependable sites on the Internet. It hires incompetent programmers, changes things willy-nilly, and is almost impossible to follow reliably. Hopefully we will be able to produce an analysis from a better source in the future, but that will take a lot of time, and the question is, '"Is it worth it?"

Under current market conditions, a Zenith Index Score of 1.20 or above is required for a positive rating on this factor. 1.21 -1.30 is considered acceptable, 1.30-1.40 is considered strong and
> 1.40 is considered exceptionally strong. Accounting statements in this section often contain mistakes, especially in earlier years' totals, but data is deemed sufficient for us to give a rating. More accurate financial statements follow in the next section.

Glu Mobile Inc. (GLUU)                                    Exchange: Nasdaq
875 Howard Street
Suite 100                        Sector: Communication Services
San Francisco, CA 94103          Industry: Electronic Gaming & Multimedia

Glu Mobile Inc. develops, publishes, and markets a portfolio of
free-to-play mobile games for the users of smartphones and tablet
devices. It publishes titles primarily in four genres, including
lifestyle, casual, mid-core, and sports and outdoors. The company's
portfolio of compelling games based on its own intellectual property,
such as Cooking Dash, Covet Fashion, Deer Hunter, Design Home, Diner
DASH Adventures, and QuizUp, as well as games based on or significantly
incorporating third party licensed brands, including Kim Kardashian:
Hollywood, MLB Tap Sports Baseball, and Restaurant Dash with Gordon
Ramsay, as well as Disney Sorcerer's Arena. It markets, sells, and
distributes its games primarily through direct-to-consumer digital
storefronts, such as the Apple App Store, Google Play Store, and others.
The company was formerly known as Sorrent, Inc. and changed its name to
Glu Mobile Inc. in May 2005. Glu Mobile Inc. was founded in 2001 and is
headquartered in San Francisco, California.

Last Trade:   9.48                           52-Week Range:  10.72 -   3.98
Employees: 659                               Avg.Volume:   4,080,707 Shares

Corporate Governance:
Pillar scores are Audit: 2; Board: 6; Shareholder Rights: 8; Compensation: 2.
         (A lower number means less governance risk.)

EPS: -0.02    Dividend Amount: $ 0.00          Yield:  0.00%
             Ex-Dividend Date: N/A             Payout Ratio:   0.00

Key Statistics:

    Trailing P/E:   0.00              Forward P/E (est.):  31.85
                                           Target Price:  10.50

Qrtly Stock Price Growth (yoy):  31.67%               Beta:   1.14
Qrtly S&P Index   Growth (yoy):   7.80%        Short Ratio:   1.51%
    Qrtly Revenue Growth (yoy):  52.00%         Shares Out:  151590000
   Qrtly Earnings Growth (yoy):   0.00%

          Book Value:   1.27                    Debt/Equity:  22.48%
    Price/Book Value:   6.88        Operating Profit Margin:  -1.33%
         Price/Sales:   3.50                  Profit Margin:  -0.82%
         Market Cap:   1,361,000,000       Return on Equity:  -1.81%
    Enterprise Value:       1,360,000      Return on Assets:  -0.91%

    Operating Cash Flow:         35,181
         Free Cash Flow:         29,300



Annual Income Statement:                          (All numbers in thousands)
  Period Ending                             12/31/2019  12/31/2018  12/31/2017

  Total Revenue                                411,381     366,561     286,827
  Cost of Revenue                              145,499     138,275     141,153
  Gross Profit                                 265,882     228,286     145,674

Operating Expenses:
  Research & Development                        95,127      94,934      92,420
  Selling, General & Administrative            163,514     145,527     138,781
  Total Operating Expenses                     258,641     240,461     231,201

Operating Income or Loss                         7,241     -12,175     -85,527

Income from Continuing Operations:
  Total Other Income/Expenses Net                    0        -240      -6,019
  Interest Expense                                   0         235       6,859
  Income Before Taxes                            9,342     -12,650     -98,396
  Income Tax Expense                               471         549        -826

Net Income from Continuing Op.s                  8,871     -13,199     -97,570

Non-recurring Events:
  Extraordinary Items                                0           0           0
  Net Income                                     8,871     -13,199     -97,570

Net Income Avail to Common Shares                8,871     -13,199     -97,570



Annual Cash Flow Statement:                   (All numbers in thousands)
  Period Ending                         12/31/2019    12/31/2018    12/31/2017

  Net Income                                 8,871       -13,199       -97,570

Operating Activities:
  Depreciation                                   0             0             0
  Changes in Accounts Recv'bls                   0             0             0
  Changes in Liabilities                         0             0             0
  Changes in Inventories                         0             0             0
  Changes in other Oper'g Acts                   0             0             0

Total Cash Flow f Operations                35,181        32,286       -28,236

Investing Activities:
  Capital Exenditures                            0             0             0
  Investments                                    0             0             0
  Other Cash Flows fr Investing                  0             0             0

Total Cash Flows from Investing             -5,438          -636       -13,703

Financing Activities:
  Dividends Paid                                 0             0             0
  Sale of Purchase of Stock                      0             0             0
  Other Cash Flows fr Financing                  0             0             0

Total Cash Flows from Financing               -443         2,181         3,763

Change in Cash & Cash Equiv.               127,053        97,944        63,764



Annual Balance Sheets:                              (All Numbers in Thousands)
  Period Ending                          12/31/2019    12/31/2018    12/31/2017
Current Assets:
  Cash & Cash Equivalents                         0             0             0
  Short Term Investments                          0             0             0
  Net Receivables                                 0             0             0
  Inventory                                       0             0             0
  Other Current Assets                            0             0             0
  Total Current Assets                            0             0             0

  Long-Term Investments                           0             0             0
  Property, Plant & Equipt                        0             0             0
  Goodwill                                        0             0             0
  Intangible Assets                               0             0             0
  Other Assets                                    0             0             0

Total Assets                                314,433       299,298       339,504

Current Liabilities:
  Accounts Payable                                0             0             0
  Current Portion LT Debt                         0             0             0
  Other Current Liabilities                       0             0             0
  Total Current Liabilities                       0             0              0

  Long Term Debt                                  0             0             0
  Other Liabilities                               0             0             0

Total Liabilities                           314,433       299,298       339,504

Stockholder Equity:
  Common Stock                                    0             0             0
  Retained Earnings                               0             0             0
  Capital Surplus                                 0             0             0
  Total Stockholder Equity                        0             0             0


Glu Mobile Inc. (GLUU)                      [Indices near +3.0, near zero,
                                            or < zero bear special attention.]
P/E Ratio Tests:
P/E Ratio < 28?            0.0000          P/E Ratio > 5?             0.0000
P/E Ratio Vs Growth Rate:  0.0000          Forward P/E Ratio < 28?    0.8790
Price/Sales Ratio < 2.3?   0.6568          Inventory/Sales < 5%?      1.0000
Sales < $1 Billion?        2.4308          Operating Margin < 7.5%?  -3.0000

Balance Sheet Tests:
Debt/Equity < 0.40?        1.7794          Long-Term Debt Service:    3.0000
LTD Being Reduced?         0.0000          Short-Term Debt Service:   3.0000
Current Ratio > 2?         1.0000          Working Capital >= 1.5?    1.0000
Leverage Ratio < 20%?      3.0000          Debt/Assets < 1?           3.0000
Quick Ratio > 1?           3.0000          Inventory Turnover > 1?    1.0000
Share Equity Increase:     1.0000          Market Cap.< 1.5 Billion?  1.1021
                                           Intangibles < 3% Assets?   3.0000
Income Tests:
Profit Margin < 7.5%?     -0.1093          EPS Annual Growth > 10%?  -0.1488
Dividend Yield > 2.0%?     0.0000          EPS 3-yr Growth > 15?     -1.6498
Enterprise Value/Revenue   3.0000          EPS Growth Consistent?     2.0000
Enterprise Value/EBITDA:   3.0000          Collection < 45 days?      1.0000
EPS Qrtly Growth > 10%?    0.0000          Gross Pft/Cur. LTD > 1?    3.0000
                                           Borrowing Int. Rate < 6%?  3.0000
Stock Performance Tests:
Volatility > 25%?          2.5149          % Held by Insiders < 5%?   0.3220
Beta > 1.25?               0.9120          % Held by Institut. < 50?  0.6917
50 Da MA > 200 Da MA?      0.6234          % Held by Institut. > 30?  2.4097
52-Wk Change vs. S&P 500:  0.6090          Short Ratio > 5?           0.3020
Price/Book Value < 3?      3.0000          Short % of Float > 20?     0.2410
Return on Assets > 17%?   -0.0535          Average Volume > 100,000?  3.0000

Cash Flow Tests:
Oper. C.F. > Lever'd C.F:  1.2007          Positive Free Cash Flow?   3.0000
Positive Oper. Cash Flow?  3.0000          Price to C.F.Ratio < 14?:  0.4224
                                           Cash Flow / Assets > 10%?  1.3059

GLUU   Glu Mobile Inc.                     Overall Zenith Index:      1.2951


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Financial Statements

GLU MOBILE INC  (GLUU)                      INCOME STATEMENT

Fiscal year ends in December. USD in thousand        2015-12         2016-12         2017-12         2018-12         2019-12             TTM           

Revenue                                              249,900         200,581         286,827         366,561         411,381         422,770
Cost of revenue                                      107,737         120,138         141,153         138,275         145,499         148,839
Gross profit                                         142,163          80,443         145,674         228,286         265,882         273,931


Operating expenses
Research and development                              72,856          81,879          92,420          94,934          95,127          98,112
Sales, General and administrative                     74,332          78,275         138,781         145,527         163,514         178,184
Restructuring, merger and acquisition                  1,075           2,279           6,019             240               0               0
Other operating expenses                                -874          -2,279          -6,019            -240               0               0
Total operating expenses                             147,389         160,154         231,201         240,461         258,641         276,296

Operating income                                      -5,226         -79,711         -85,527         -12,175           7,241          -2,365
Interest Expense                                           0               0               0             235               0               0
Other income (expense)                                -1,818          -8,030         -12,869            -240           2,101           1,272
Income before taxes                                   -7,044         -87,741         -98,396         -12,650           9,342          -1,093
Provision for income taxes                               141            -301            -826             549             471          -1,028
Net income from continuing operations                 -7,185         -87,440         -97,570         -13,199           8,871             -65
Net income                                            -7,185         -87,440         -97,570         -13,199           8,871             -65
Net income available to common shareholders           -7,185         -87,440         -97,570         -13,199           8,871             -65

Earnings per share
Basic                                                  -0.06           -0.66           -0.72           -0.09            0.06            0.00 
Diluted                                                -0.06           -0.66           -0.72           -0.09            0.06            0.00 

Weighted average shares outstanding
Basic                                                118,775         131,804         135,715         141,402         145,838         147,134
Diluted                                              118,775         131,804         135,715         141,402         157,383         154,934

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


GLU MOBILE INC  (GLUU)                      BALANCE SHEET

Fiscal year ends in December. USD in thousand        2015-12         2016-12         2017-12         2018-12         2019-12             

Assets

Current assets

Cash

Total cash                                           180,542         102,102          63,764          97,834         127,053

Receivables                                           17,956          21,477          34,673          27,325          29,304
Prepaid expenses                                      23,715          12,465           8,458          15,460          23,976
Other current assets                                  14,841          18,986          30,681          30,382          34,306
Total current assets                                 237,054         155,030         137,576         171,001         214,639

Non-current assets

Property, plant and equipment
Gross property, plant and equipment                   18,228          21,274          20,868          23,981          66,183
Accumulated Depreciation                             -12,781         -15,634          -6,238         -10,093         -13,370
Net property, plant and equipment                      5,447           5,640          14,630          13,888          52,813

Goodwill                                              87,890         116,832         116,227         116,227         116,227
Intangible assets                                     22,767          25,896          18,264           9,145           4,758
Other long-term assets                                49,828          36,106          12,601           4,172          29,612
Total non-current assets                             165,932         184,474         161,722         143,432         203,410

Total assets                                         402,986         339,504         299,298         314,433         418,049 

Liabilities and stockholders' equity

Liabilities

Current liabilities
Capital leases                                             0               0               0               0           3,528
Accounts payable                                       9,386          16,298          21,203          10,480          16,892
Accrued liabilities                                   23,028          10,682          13,695          15,817          21,445
Deferred revenues                                     31,112          44,865          77,403          85,736          97,629
Other current liabilities                              7,100          12,495          20,603          17,896          11,260
Total current liabilities                             70,626          84,340         132,904         129,929         150,754

Non-current liabilities
Capital leases                                             0               0               0               0          37,351
Accrued liabilities                                   24,347          20,836           7,300           1,649          26,842
Other long-term liabilities                            1,585           1,514           5,234           5,542              15
Total non-current liabilities                         25,932          22,350          12,534           7,191          64,208

Total liabilities                                     96,558         106,690         145,438         137,120         214,962 

Stockholders' equity

Common stock                                              13              13              14              14              15
Additional paid-in capital                           557,748         571,243         589,962         617,781         634,721
Retained earnings                                   -251,248        -338,688        -436,110        -440,483        -431,612
Accumulated other comprehensive income                   -85             246              -6               1             -37
Total stockholders' equity                           306,428         232,814         153,860         177,313         203,087
Total liabilities and stockholders' equity           402,986         339,504         299,298         314,433         418,049

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


GLU MOBILE INC  (GLUU)                      Statement of CASH FLOW

Fiscal year ends in December. USD in thousand        2015-12         2016-12         2017-12         2018-12         2019-12             TTM           

Cash Flows From Operating Activities
Net income                                            -7,185         -87,440         -97,570         -13,199           8,871             -65
Depreciation & amortization                           12,615           2,947           3,195           3,855           4,225           4,141
Investment/asset impairment charges                    2,502          47,499          37,654           9,830           4,844               0
Investments losses (gains)                             2,009             -55             631           1,046               0               0
Stock based compensation                              11,686          13,263          15,063          24,592          17,383          16,958
Change in working capital                            -33,884           1,103           7,900           5,067          -3,646          -8,878
Accounts receivable                                   13,408             402         -13,061           7,028          -1,975          -8,110
Prepaid expenses                                     -29,727         -19,011         -32,983             398          -1,568          -8,033
Accounts payable                                      -1,701           3,135           4,735         -10,244           3,090           3,332
Accrued liabilities                                   -4,987              50           4,613          -1,412          -1,029          -3,290
Other working capital                                -10,877          16,527          44,596           9,297          -2,164           7,223
Other non-cash items                                     792           2,899           4,891           1,095           3,504           8,561
Net cash provided by operating activities            -11,465         -19,784         -28,236          32,286          35,181          20,717

Cash Flows From Investing Activities
Investments in property, plant, and equipmen          -2,751          -3,070         -11,344          -3,362          -5,283          -8,976
Acquisitions, net                                     -1,914         -46,160          -1,659           2,726               0               0
Purchases of intangibles                              -2,500          -2,500               0               0               0               0
Other investing activities                               241             186            -700               0            -155             -55
Net cash used for investing activities                -6,924         -51,544         -13,703            -636          -5,438          -9,031

Cash Flows From Financing Activities
Debt repayment                                             0          -1,885               0               0               0               0
Common stock issued                                  125,156               0               0               0               0               0
Other financing activities                             3,214          -4,900           3,763           2,181            -443          10,046
Net cash provided by (used for) financing            128,370          -6,785           3,763           2,181            -443          10,046

Effect of exchange rate changes                         -351            -327            -162            -253            -191            -329
Net change in cash                                   109,630         -78,440         -38,338          33,578          29,109          21,403
Cash at beginning of period                           70,912         180,542         102,102          64,366          97,944          93,305
Cash at end of period                                180,542         102,102          63,764          97,944         127,053         114,708

Free Cash Flow
Operating cash flow                                  -11,465         -19,784         -28,236          32,286          35,181          20,717
Capital expenditure                                   -5,251          -5,570         -11,344          -3,362          -5,283          -8,976
Free cash flow                                       -16,716         -25,354         -39,580          28,924          29,898          11,741
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________





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Average to Current P/E Ratios
              (GLUU)     Glu Mobile Inc.

                               2015    2016    2017    2018    2019

          Annual Earnings:    -0.06   -0.66   -0.72   -0.09    0.06
Average Price During Year:     4.86    2.45    2.88    5.46    7.68

                P/E Ratio:    80.94    3.71    4.00   60.64  128.07

 Average 5-Year P/E Ratio  =  55.47
             Current Price =  9.01

Previous 5 Quarter Earnings:   0.00    0.02   -0.03    0.07   -0.06

          Current Annualized (Last Four Quarters) Earnings =  -0.02
                                                           ________
                                 Average PE / Current PE =    -0.12
                                                           --------

                                      ...a number above 1.00 is good
                                                1.00 or below is bad


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Financial Ratios

. . . . . . . . . . . . Lowest to Highest, Compared to Industry



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Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Intrinsic Value by Discounted Cash Flow Method:

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Fair Value Estimate:

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Institutional Ownership:

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Mutual Fund Ownership:

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Sentiment

sentiment

Zenith uses the "sentiment" score above or below 50 to award a positive or negative point in the Decision Matrix.

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Short Interest Ratio

As the short interest rises as a percentage of average daily share volume (Days to Cover), this is considered a measure of negative sentiment. Similarly, a decrease in that percentage is considered positive sentiment.

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Standard & Poor's

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Management's Discussion of Results of Operations Excerpts

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Channeling Potential

 
The summary below includes a value for `Degree,' which refers on a
scale of 1 to 10 the range of a channel in the period under consi-
deration compared to the total range of price movement. It also looks
for the last closing price to be within the channel, otherwise zeroed.
The `Index' is the `Degree' weighted for volatility.  Generally, the
the higher the index, the more suitable is the stock for trading as
a `rolling stock' between channel high and low points.

Results for GLU MOBILE INC.:
Symbol? GLUU
Total Months Available:  25
       Months in Cycle?   4

Months Covered by Periods:  12

Period 1           Period 2          Period 3
   H1      L1        H2      L2        H3      L3
   7.99    4.11      6.70    5.05     10.72    3.98

RANGE   =  10.72  TO    3.98            Close =   9.01
CHANNEL =   6.70  TO    5.05           Degree =   2
Volatility =  18.31%                    Index =   3
Channel Chart



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MACD Histogram Divergence

The theory is that connecting the two most recent peaks or valleys of the MACD histogram will signal the direction of the next major move.



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Intraday Chart

2 Days:



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Val Idea

1 out of 8 favorable, (negative opinion.)

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Time Series Forecast

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Neural Network Prediction

"Neurostock" can only track long trades. Therefore its performance, as tracked by itself on stocks which are consistently falling, may not appear as good as it could if each "sell" signal were a "short sale."

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Ultimate Trading Systems

2 out of 3 of the ultimate systems favor a downmove.


System Below:
Short term outlook: Positive: Bright Green, Negative: Bright Red
Long term outlook: Postive: Dark Green, Negative: Dark Red.




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Recommendation

Decision Weighting Factors
FactorsWeighted Points
News + 1
Comparison + 1
Industry + 1
Bond Issue - 1
Zenith Index + 1
Non-GAAP vs. GAAP Earnings + 1
Cash Flow + 1
Average to Current P/E - 1
Ratios - 1
Intrinsic Value DCF - 1
Fair Value Estimator + 1
Projected Earnings + 1
Research Reports - 1
Analysts + 1
Executive Perquisites - 1
Insider Activity - 1
Institutional Activity + 1
Management Reporting + 1
Short Interest + 1
Sentiment + 1
Standard & Poor's - 1
MACD Histogram Divergence + 1
Val Idea - 1
Stock Consultant + 1
Point & Figure + 1
Wall Street Analyzer - 1
Marketspace Chart - 1
Time Series Chart - 1
Neural Network - 1
Stock Options + 1
Ultimate Trading Systems - 1
Total + 3
Place 3,355 shares of glu Mobile, Inc. (GLUU) on the Active List.