06-06-2019: Eros International plc (EROS): Distributor of Films from India

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Recommendation

Eros International plc

Eros International plc (EROS) is an acquirer and distributor of films for theaters, television channel subscriptions, internet channel subscriptions, video on demand formats, and the like including placing content on Blu-ray and DVD's. It also offers music content directly. It is based in Secaucus, NJ, but in some ways acts more like a corporation based in India. Most of its entertainment selections are aimed at those who speak the language in India and these selections are made in India. India had rather fractured and disrespectful media on demand operations used for money laundering by criminal enterprises, but this rather large corporation helped get a return to respectability for the business. Its various outlets are through many countries worldwide including China.

The Zenith Index is unacceptably low on this stock due to things like debt increase, falling share price, cash flow, and earnings growth or lack thereof. However, the average to current p/e ratio is high suggesting the possibility the stock may have been overlooked. The one agency which did not overlook it was Standard & Poor's which gave it a high rating even though the stock has a negative net asset value, and that is how we happened to come upon and pick this particular stock for review. It does not have the usual amount of researcher and analyst reviewers, but does have some. Researchers are overwhelmingly negative. Analysts are few but positive. They are projecting a significant jump in earnings next year. Book value is positive loaded with intangibles.

We could not detect any insider buying or selling, which we regard as a positive.

The entertainment industry as a whole is struggling and one of the weakest industry groups.

News on this stock consists mainly of an endless stream of new partnerships to provide outlets for content worldwide. The company's website is reasonably complete in describing the nature and prospects for its operations. The CEO is quite vocal in providing a steady stream of public relations announcements. We did not like management's somewhat unconventional reporting style and gave the stock a negative on that, seemingly a bit more like a foreign-based operation than one based in the U.S. Institutions are net acquirers.

The stock chart at first glance looks extremely negative, however a significant number of our technical indicators suggest the stock has bottomed and reaching a turning point. Traders might wait a little bit more sign of upward momentum developing before jumping in. 



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Zenith Index

Under current market conditions, a Zenith Index Score of 1.20 or above is required for a positive rating on this factor. 1.21 -1.30 is considered acceptable, 1.30-1.40 is considered strong and
> 1.40 is considered exceptionally strong. Accounting statements in this section often contain mistakes, especially in earlier years' totals, but data is deemed sufficient for us to give a rating. More accurate financial statements follow in the next section.

Eros International Plc (EROS)                             Exchange: NYSE
550 County Avenue
Secaucus, NJ 07094               Sector: Consumer Cyclical
United States                    Industry: Media - Diversified

Eros International Plc, together with its subsidiaries, co-produces,
acquires, and distributes Indian films in various formats worldwide. The
company distributes its film content through various distribution
channels, including theatrical, which includes multiplex chains and
stand-alone theaters; television syndication that comprises satellite
television broadcasting, cable television, and terrestrial television;
and digital and ancillary, such as Internet protocol television, video
on demand, music, inflight entertainment, home video, and Internet
channels, as well as Eros Now online entertainment service. It also
distributes its film content through physical formats comprising DVDs
and video compact discs (VCDs) in hotels and on airlines, as well as for
use on mobile networks; and distributes and licenses content on physical
media that includes Blu-ray, DVDs, and VCDs. In addition, the company
distributes its film content to Internet platforms, as well as to
wholesalers and retailers; and licenses content to third party
distributors internationally to provide content dubbed into local
languages for non-South Asian audiences. Further, it operates as a music
publisher for third party owned music rights. Additionally, the company
offers music content directly, as well as through third party platforms
or licensing deals; and through streaming services, such as digital
streaming, CDs, and publishing/master rights licensing. It has rights
for approximately 3,000 films in its library. Eros International Plc has
a strategic partnership with Foodpanda to offer food products, films,
and other services; and strategic alliance with Jean-Claude Biguine. The
company was founded in 1977 and is based in Secaucus, New Jersey.

Last Trade:   7.66                           52-Week Range:  14.85 -   6.94
Employees: 423                               Avg.Volume:     327,185 Shares

Corporate Governance:
Pllar scores are Audit: N/A; Board: N/A; Shareholder Rights: N/A; Compensation:
N/A.
         (A lower number means less governance risk.)

EPS: -0.17    Dividend Amount: $ 0.00          Yield:  0.00%
             Ex-Dividend Date: N/A             Payout Ratio:   0.00

Key Statistics:

    Trailing P/E:   0.00              Forward P/E (est.):   9.24
                                           Target Price:  17.00

Qrtly Stock Price Growth (yoy): -44.69%               Beta:   0.00
Qrtly S&P Index   Growth (yoy):  17.70%        Short Ratio:  27.44%
    Qrtly Revenue Growth (yoy):  -0.09%         Shares Out:  64180000.000
   Qrtly Earnings Growth (yoy):   2.00%

          Book Value:  13.18                    Debt/Equity:  27.72%
    Price/Book Value:   0.58        Operating Profit Margin:  19.65%
         Price/Sales:   2.01                  Profit Margin:  -4.26%
         Market Cap:     547,752,000       Return on Equity:   0.14%
    Enterprise Value:     907,210,000      Return on Assets:   2.31%

    Operating Cash Flow:     74,240,000
         Free Cash Flow:    -36,160,000



Annual Income Statement:                          (All numbers in thousands)
  Period Ending                             03/31/2018   3/31/2017   3/31/2016

  Total Revenue                                261,253     252,994     274,428
  Cost of Revenue                              134,708     164,240     172,764
  Gross Profit                                 126,545      88,754     101,664

Operating Expenses:
  Research & Development                             0           0           0
  Selling, General & Administrative             66,824      63,309      64,019
  Non-Recurring Expenses                             0           0           0
  Other Operating Expenses                           0           0           0
  Total Operating Expenses                     201,532     227,549     236,783

Operating Income or Loss                        59,721      25,445      37,645

Income from Continuing Operations:
  Total Other Income/Expenses Net              -60,339      -2,951     -11,646
  Earnings Before Interest & Taxes              59,721      25,445      37,645
  Interest Expense                             -19,668     -19,521     -13,719
  Income Before Taxes                             -618      22,494      25,999
  Income Tax Expense                             9,127      11,039      12,711
  Minority Interest                            137,728      79,091      68,762

Net Income from Continuing Op.s                 -9,745      11,455      13,288
Non-recurring Events:
  Discontinued Operations                            0           0           0
  Extraordinary Items                                0           0           0
  Effect of Accounting Changes                       0           0           0
  Other Items                                        0           0           0
  Net Income                                   -22,575       3,805       3,797
  Preferred Stock & Other Adjustments                0           0           0

Net Income Avail to Common Shares              -22,575       3,805       3,797



Annual Cash Flow Statement:                   (All numbers in thousands)
  Period Ending                         03/31/2018     3/31/2017     3/31/2016

  Net Income                                -9,745        11,455        13,288

Operating Activities:
  Depreciation                               1,265         1,082         1,154
  Adjustments to Net Income                 80,293        25,461        48,902
  Changes in Accounts Recv'bls             -91,317       -72,247        19,690
  Changes in Liabilities                    -1,215         4,172        31,433
  Changes in Investories                      -219          -412           189
  Changes in other Oper'g Acts                   0             0             0

Total Cash Flow f Operations                83,243        98,993       234,599

Investing Activities:
  Capital Exenditures                         -913          -678        -1,702
  Investments                                    0           288          -230
  Other Cash Flows fr Investing              2,510        -1,322         3,011

Total Cash Flows from Investing           -185,420      -175,191      -211,355

Financing Activities:
  Dividends Paid                                 0             0             0
  Sale of Purchase of Stock                      0             0             0
  Net Borrowings                             1,993       -25,131        -4,109
  Other Cash Flows fr Financing             40,777          -344         3,011

Total Cash Flows from Financing             77,415         5,929         7,597

  Effect of Exchange Rate Chg                  257          -238        -1,731

Change in Cash & Cash Equiv.               -24,505       -70,507        29,110



Annual Balance Sheets:                              (All Numbers in Thousands)
  Period Ending                          03/31/2018     3/31/2017     3/31/2016
Current Assets:
  Cash & Cash Equivalents                    87,762       112,267       182,774
  Short Term Investments                          0             0             0
  Net Receivables                           245,079       243,015       188,599
  Inventory                                     353           214           287
  Other Current Assets                        6,368         6,981         1,822
  Total Current Assets                      339,562       362,477       373,482

  Long-Term Investments                      27,257        29,613        30,147
  Property, Plant & Equipt                   10,013        10,354        10,686
  Goodwill                                    3,800         4,992         5,097
  Intangible Assets                         668,255       656,756       530,449
  Accumulated Amortization                        0             0             0
  Other Assets                              361,432       279,173       298,017
  Deferred LT Asset Charges                     351           112           167

Total Assets                              1,410,319     1,343,365     1,247,878

Current Liabilities:
  Accounts Payable                           16,886        12,142        15,496
  Current Portion LT Debt                    64,208        96,398       136,805
  Other Current Liabilities                  36,775        86,169        19,695
  Total Current Liabilities                 239,327       316,101        290,687

  Long Term Debt                            124,983       102,394       115,480
  Other Liabilities                          42,592        41,322        32,617
  Deferred LT Liab. Charges                       0             0             0
  Minority Interest                         137,728        79,091        68,762
  Negative Goodwill                               0             0             0

Total Liabilities                           406,902       459,817       438,784

Stockholder Equity:
  Misc. Options, Warrants                         0             0             0
  Redeemable Preferred Stock                      0             0             0
  Preferred Stock                                 0             0             0
  Common Stock                               35,334        31,877        30,793
  Retained Earnings                         375,260       389,474       376,317
  Treasury Stock                              1,098       -16,580       -23,643
  Capital Surplus                           453,997       399,686       356,865
  Other Stockhohlder Equity                   1,098       -16,580       -23,643
  Total Stockholder Equity                  865,689       804,457       740,332

Net Tangible Assets                         193,634       142,709       204,786


Eros International Plc (EROS)               [Indices near +3.0, near zero,
                                            or < zero bear special attention.]
P/E Ratio Tests:
P/E Ratio < 28?            0.0000          P/E Ratio > 5?             0.0000
P/E Ratio Vs Growth Rate:  0.0000          Forward P/E Ratio < 28?    3.0000
Price/Sales Ratio < 2.3?   1.1443          Inventory/Sales < 5%?      3.0000
Sales < $1 Billion?        3.0000          Operating Margin < 7.5%?   0.3817

Balance Sheet Tests:
Debt/Equity < 0.40?        1.4430          Long-Term Debt Service:    3.0000
LTD Being Reduced?        -3.0000          Short-Term Debt Service:  -3.0000
Current Ratio > 2?         0.7094          Working Capital >= 1.5?    1.0713
Leverage Ratio < 20%?      0.5434          Debt/Assets < 1?           3.0000
Quick Ratio > 1?           3.0000          Inventory Turnover > 1?    0.0018
Share Equity Increase:     2.1627          Market Cap.< 1.5 Billion?  2.7385
                                           Intangibles < 3% Assets?   0.0630
Income Tests:
Profit Margin < 7.5%?     -0.5680          EPS Annual Growth > 10%?  -0.0169
Dividend Yield > 2.0%?     0.0000          EPS 3-yr Growth > 15?     -0.0252
Enterprise Value/Revenue   2.0973          EPS Growth Consistent?     0.0000
Enterprise Value/EBITDA:   3.0000          Collection < 45 days?      0.1314
EPS Qrtly Growth > 10%?    0.0500          Gross Pft/Cur. LTD > 1?    1.9709
                                           Borrowing Int. Rate < 6%? -0.3813
Stock Performance Tests:
Volatility > 25%?          2.1306          % Held by Insiders < 5%?   0.1107
Beta > 1.25?               0.0000          % Held by Institut. < 50?  0.9032
50 Da MA > 200 Da MA?     -0.3016          % Held by Institut. > 30?  1.8453
52-Wk Change vs. S&P 500:  3.0000          Short Ratio > 5?           3.0000
Price/Book Value < 3?      3.0000          Short % of Float > 20?     1.2655
Return on Assets > 17%?    0.1359          Average Volume > 100,000?  3.0000

Cash Flow Tests:
Oper. C.F. > Lever'd C.F: -2.0531          Positive Free Cash Flow?  -1.0000
Positive Oper. Cash Flow?  3.0000          Price to C.F.Ratio < 14?:  3.0000
                                           Cash Flow / Assets > 10%?  2.4539

EROS   Eros International Plc              Overall Zenith Index:      1.0616


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Financial Statements

EROS INTERNATIONAL PLC  (EROS)              INCOME STATEMENT

Fiscal year ends in March. USD in thousands          2014-03         2015-03         2016-03         2017-03         2018-03             TTM           

Revenue                                              235,470         284,175         274,428         252,994         261,253         272,307
Cost of revenue                                      132,933         155,777         172,764         164,240         134,708         153,214
Gross profit                                         102,537         128,398         101,664          88,754         126,545         119,093


Operating expenses
Sales, General and administrative                     42,680          49,546          64,019          63,309          68,029          66,804
Total operating expenses                              42,680          49,546          64,019          63,309          68,029          66,804

Operating income                                      59,857          78,852          37,645          25,445          58,516          52,289
Interest Expense                                       8,677           9,987          12,915          18,717          19,293          21,703
Other income (expense)                                -1,193          -6,357           1,269          15,766         -39,841         -18,171
Income before taxes                                   49,987          62,508          25,999          22,494            -618          12,415
Provision for income taxes                            12,843          13,178          12,711          11,039           9,127          10,975
Net income from continuing operations                 37,144          49,330          13,288          11,455          -9,745           1,440
Other                                                 -7,283          -8,986          -9,491          -7,650         -12,830         -13,046
Net income                                            29,861          40,344           3,797           3,805         -22,575         -11,606
Net income available to common shareholders           29,861          40,344           3,797           3,805         -22,575         -11,606

Earnings per share
Basic                                                   0.66            0.74            0.07            0.06           -0.36           -0.20 
Diluted                                                 0.65            0.72            0.05            0.05           -0.36           -0.20 

Weighted average shares outstanding
Basic                                                 45,590          54,278          57,732          59,410          62,151          69,462
Diluted                                               45,607          54,969          59,036          60,943          63,482          69,462

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


EROS INTERNATIONAL PLC  (EROS)              BALANCE SHEET

Fiscal year ends in March. USD in thousands          2014-03         2015-03         2016-03         2017-03         2018-03             

Assets

Current assets

Cash

Total cash                                           145,449         153,664         182,774         112,267          87,762

Receivables                                          111,649         209,676         188,361         242,762         245,079
Inventories                                              566             475             287             214             353
Other current assets                                     611           2,777           2,060           7,234           6,368
Total current assets                                 258,275         366,592         373,482         362,477         339,562

Non-current assets

Property, plant and equipment
Gross property, plant and equipment                   16,796          16,572          18,776          19,640          19,844
Accumulated Depreciation                              -6,630          -7,300          -8,090          -9,286          -9,831
Net property, plant and equipment                     10,166           9,272          10,686          10,354          10,013

Equity and other investments                          30,340          29,917          30,147          29,613          27,257
Goodwill                                               1,878           1,878           1,878           4,992           3,800
Intangible assets                                    593,219         735,418         811,685         922,988       1,017,823
Deferred income taxes                                     77             151             167             112             351
Other long-term assets                                12,056           6,305          18,594          12,829          11,513
Total non-current assets                             647,736         782,941         873,157         980,888       1,070,757

Total assets                                         906,011       1,149,533       1,246,639       1,343,365       1,410,319 

Liabilities and stockholders' equity

Liabilities

Current liabilities
Short-term debt                                       92,879          96,397         219,275         180,029         151,963
Accounts payable                                      10,868          10,679          15,496          12,142          16,886
Taxes payable                                          5,874           5,958          14,537          21,597          16,437
Accrued liabilities                                   18,959          15,447          41,379          93,398          34,501
Deferred revenues                                          0               0               0               0          10,642
Other current liabilities                                  0               0               0           8,935           8,898
Total current liabilities                            128,580         128,481         290,687         316,101         239,327

Non-current liabilities
Long-term debt                                       165,254         218,273          92,630          89,841         124,983
Deferred taxes liabilities                            22,260          27,086          30,842          35,973          39,519
Deferred revenues                                          0               0               0               0           2,326
Minority interest                                     50,350          58,721          68,762          79,091         137,728
Other long-term liabilities                           11,876          19,638          23,386          17,902             747
Total non-current liabilities                        249,740         323,718         215,620         222,807         305,303

Total liabilities                                    378,320         452,199         506,307         538,908         544,630 

Stockholders' equity

Common stock                                          26,322          30,622          30,793          31,877          35,334
Other Equity                                         317,351         365,208         405,984         421,012         407,007
Additional paid-in capital                           223,333         345,385         356,865         399,686         453,997
Accumulated other comprehensive income               -39,315         -43,881         -53,310         -48,118         -30,649
Total stockholders' equity                           527,691         697,334         740,332         804,457         865,689
Total liabilities and stockholders' equity           906,011       1,149,533       1,246,639       1,343,365       1,410,319

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


EROS INTERNATIONAL PLC  (EROS)              Statement of CASH FLOW

Fiscal year ends in March. USD in thousands          2014-03         2015-03         2016-03         2017-03         2018-03             TTM           

Cash Flows From Operating Activities
Net income                                            49,987          62,508          25,999          22,494            -618          12,415
Depreciation & amortization                          100,987         118,951         130,588         138,214         118,276         126,972
Stock based compensation                              18,421          21,915          30,992          23,471          17,918          19,489
Change in working capital                            -30,895         -92,547          51,336         -68,487         -92,751        -151,051
Inventory                                                216              67             189            -412            -219            -284
Accounts payable                                         927           1,361          31,457           4,172          -1,215               0
Other working capital                                -32,038         -93,975          19,690         -72,247         -91,317        -150,767
Other non-cash items                                  -5,968           7,128          -4,316         -16,699          40,418          66,419
Net cash provided by operating activities            132,532         117,955         234,599          98,993          83,243          74,244

Cash Flows From Investing Activities
Investments in property, plant, and equipmen            -102            -529          -1,702            -678            -913          -1,215
Property, plant, and equipment reductions                 12              29              56               2              70              24
Acquisitions, net                                          0               0             263               0              -9               0
Purchases of investments                                   0          -2,465            -230               0               0               0
Sales/Maturities of investments                            0               0               0             288               0               0
Purchases of intangibles                            -163,262        -277,538        -212,753        -173,481        -187,078        -177,781
Other investing activities                             2,332           1,263           3,011          -1,322           2,510         -45,727
Net cash used for investing activities              -161,020        -279,240        -211,355        -175,191        -185,420        -224,699

Cash Flows From Financing Activities
Debt issued                                           40,304         161,021          95,460          92,832         159,527          90,533
Debt repayment                                       -21,665         -95,852         -99,708        -118,347        -157,534         -61,353
Common stock issued                                   50,608         110,915          11,708          31,404          34,645          72,842
Other financing activities                               150           1,477             137              40          40,777          -1,600
Net cash provided by (used for) financing             69,397         177,561           7,597           5,929          77,415         100,422

Effect of exchange rate changes                       -3,102          -8,061          -1,731            -238             257           3,692
Net change in cash                                    37,807           8,215          29,110         -70,507         -24,505         -46,341
Cash at beginning of period                          107,642         145,449         153,664         182,774         112,267         134,559
Cash at end of period                                145,449         153,664         182,774         112,267          87,762          88,218

Free Cash Flow
Operating cash flow                                  132,532         117,955         234,599          98,993          83,243          74,244
Capital expenditure                                 -163,364        -278,067        -214,455        -174,159        -187,991        -178,996
Free cash flow                                       -30,832        -160,112          20,144         -75,166        -104,748        -104,752
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________





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Average to Current P/E Ratios
              (EROS)     Eros International PLC A

                               2014    2015    2016    2017    2018

          Annual Earnings:     1.04    0.72    0.05    0.05   -0.36
Average Price During Year:    14.95   22.47   13.45   11.85   11.96

                P/E Ratio:    14.38   31.22  268.98  237.08   33.23

 Average 5-Year P/E Ratio  = 116.98
             Current Price =  7.73

Previous 5 Quarter Earnings:  -0.09    0.05   -0.20    0.16    0.13

          Current Annualized (Last Four Quarters) Earnings =   0.09
                                                           ________
                                 Average PE / Current PE =     1.36
                                                           --------

                                      ...a number above 1.00 is good
                                                1.00 or below is bad


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Sentiment

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Short Interest Ratio

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Management's Discussion of Results of Operations Excerpts

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Channeling Potential

 
The summary below includes a value for `Degree,' which refers on a
scale of 1 to 10 the range of a channel in the period under consi-
deration compared to the total range of price movement. It also looks
for the last closing price to be within the channel, otherwise zeroed.
The `Index' is the `Degree' weighted for volatility.  Generally, the
the higher the index, the more suitable is the stock for trading as
a `rolling stock' between channel high and low points.

Results for EROS INTERNATIONAL PLC:
Symbol? EROS
Total Months Available:  68
       Months in Cycle?   4

Months Covered by Periods:  12

Period 1           Period 2          Period 3
   H1      L1        H2      L2        H3      L3
  14.85   10.55     12.85    6.94     10.80    7.34

RANGE   =  14.85  TO    6.94            Close =   7.66
CHANNEL =  10.80  TO   10.55           Degree =   0
Volatility =   3.26%                    Index =   0
Channel Chart



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MACD Histogram Divergence

The theory is that connecting the two most recent peaks or valleys of the MACD histogram will signal the direction of the next major move.



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Intraday Chart

2 Days:



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Val Idea

0 out of 8 favorable, (negative opinion.)

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Time Series 1 Time Series 2


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Neural Network Prediction

"Neurostock" can only track long trades. Therefore its performance, as tracked by itself on stocks which are consistently falling, may not appear as good as it could if each "sell" signal were a "short sale."

Neural Chart
Heading
Neural Trades Neural Prediction



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Ultimate Trading Systems

3 out of 3 of the ultimate systems favor an upmove.


System Below:
Short term outlook: Positive: Bright Green, Negative: Bright Red
Long term outlook: Postive: Dark Green, Negative: Dark Red.




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Recommendation

N
Decision Weighting Factors
FactorsWeighted Points
News + 1
Comparison + 1
Industry - 1
Bond Issue 0
Zenith Index - 1
Non-GAAP vs. GAAP Earnings + 1
Cash Flow - 1
Average to Current P/E + 1
Ratios - 1
Intrinsic Value DCF 0
Fair Value Estimator - 1
Projected Earnings + 1
Research Reports - 1
Analysts + 1
Executive Perquisites + 1
Insider Activity + 1
Institutional Activity + 1
Management Reporting - 1
Short Interest + 1
Sentiment - 1
Standard & Poor's + 1
MACD Histogram Divergence - 1
Val Idea - 1
Stock Consultant + 1
Point & Figure + 1
Wall Street Analyzer + 1
Marketspace Chart - 1
Time Series Chart - 1
Neural Network + 1
Stock Options + 1
Ultimate Trading Systems + 1
Total + 5
Place 3,910 shares of Eros International, plc (EROS) on the Active List.