08-15-2018: Educational Development Corporation (EDUC): Children's Books Publisher

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Recommendation

Educational Development Corporation

Zenith prefers to review stocks which have an average daily volume above 300,000 shares. Once one starts dropping below that, factors come in that affect our rating system, namely missing elements and clues as less is known in general about these stocks. Educational Development Corporation (EDUC) was a case of letting in a stock with only a 24,000 share average daily volume. Our rating of this company was penalized by lack of any analyst interest, resultant absence of projected earnings, and no options available on the stock at all. Also we were greeted several times in the "Management Discussion" that because of its size, it was not required to report certain information.

On the flip side, having small volume stocks in one's portfolio is more likely to give a chance in an "overlooked" situation, where a high-value stock is under-priced due to lack of interest by many other investors. Volatility is apt to be greater than average.

There is very little competition from listed stocks in the book publishing industry. There is even less competition if one restricts interest to children's books, which is what EDUC publishes.

Researchers are neutral overall but Standard & Poor's gives the stock its highest rating of five-stars.

News on the stock includes charges of mismanagement by one of its largest institutional holders. However, another large holder, Dimensional Fund Advisors is also present, which we regard as a good sign. DFA pretty much follows criteria we use in selection, but with a much larger staff and resources. Also, institutions as a whole by far are net acquirers.

The CEO of the company laments that the company did not do as well as expected lately in his most recent letter to shareholders, but a look at earnings and stock price trends suggests the company is fairly consistent in its growth path. And even in this aging bull market, the average to current p/e ratio suggests shares are under-priced by historic standards. This is very rare in stocks lately. Also there appears to be significant insider buying. However, revenues are not increasing as fast as earnings, a trend that is not sustainable.

Financial ratios look reasonable as does the Zenith Index except for a possible warning from one site that a forward-projected p/e ratio will increase from 14 to 54. We don't know upon what that is based since there are no analysts.

EDUC is based in Oklahoma, but does business in a number of foreign countries, particularly Australia.

Executives are modestly compensated, and the stock pays a 2% dividend, both indicating shareholder concern. 



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Zenith Index

Under current market conditions, a Zenith Index Score of 1.20 or above is required for a positive rating on this factor. 1.21 -1.30 is considered acceptable, 1.30-1.40 is considered strong and
> 1.40 is considered exceptionally strong. Accounting statements in this section often contain mistakes, especially in earlier years' totals, but data is deemed sufficient for us to give a rating. More accurate financial statements follow in the next section.

Educational Development Corporation (EDUC)                Exchange: Nasdaq
5402 South 122nd East Avenue
Tulsa, OK 74146                  Sector: Consumer Cyclical
United States                    Industry: Publishing

Educational Development Corporation, a publishing company, operates as a
trade co-publisher of the line of educational children's books in the
United States. The company offers various books, including Touchy-Feely
board books, activity and flashcards, adventure and search books, art
books, sticker books, and foreign language books, as well as science and
math titles, and chapter books and novels. It operates through two
divisions, Home Business and Publishing. The Home Business division
distributes books through a network of independent consultants, who hold
book showings in individual homes; and through social media, book fairs,
direct sales, and Internet sales. This division distributes its products
to school and public libraries. The Publishing division markets books to
bookstores, toy stores, specialty stores, museums, and other retail
outlets throughout the country. The company distributes children's books
published by Usborne Publishing Limited in the United Kingdom.
Educational Development Corporation was founded in 1965 and is
headquartered in Tulsa, Oklahoma.

Last Trade:  20.25                           52-Week Range:  27.93 -   9.25
Employees: 193                               Avg.Volume:      24,253 Shares

Corporate Governance:
Pillar scores are Audit: N/A; Board: N/A; Shareholder Rights: N/A; Compensation:
 N/A.
         (A lower number means less governance risk.)

EPS:  1.41    Dividend Amount: $ 0.40          Yield:  2.00%
             Ex-Dividend Date: May 31, 2018    Payout Ratio:   7.09

Key Statistics:

    Trailing P/E:  14.65

Qrtly Stock Price Growth (yoy):  82.43%               Beta:   2.17
Qrtly S&P Index   Growth (yoy):  11.40%        Short Ratio:   2.27%
    Qrtly Revenue Growth (yoy):  15.72%         Shares Out:  4090000
   Qrtly Earnings Growth (yoy):  48.30%

          Book Value:   5.33                    Debt/Equity:  93.81%
    Price/Book Value:   3.87        Operating Profit Margin:   6.69%
         Price/Sales:   0.73                  Profit Margin:   5.05%
         Market Cap:      84,530,000       Return on Equity:  30.35%
    Enterprise Value:      97,080,000      Return on Assets:   7.65%

    Operating Cash Flow:     12,340,000
         Free Cash Flow:      9,000,000



Annual Income Statement:                          (All numbers in thousands)
  Period Ending                             02/28/201    2/28/2017   2/29/2016

  Total Revenue                                111,966     106,628      63,618
  Cost of Revenue                               30,931      28,614      20,494
  Gross Profit                                  81,035      78,015      43,124

Operating Expenses:
  Research & Development                             0           0           0
  Selling, General & Administrative             73,667      72,986      39,811
  Non-Recurring Expenses                             0           0           0
  Other Operating Expenses                           0           0           0
  Total Operating Expenses                     104,598     101,600      60,305

Operating Income or Loss                         7,368       5,029       3,313

Income from Continuing Operations:
  Total Other Income/Expenses Net                  464        -416         233
  Earnings Before Interest & Taxes               7,368                  5,029  E
arnings Before Interest & Taxes               3,313
  Interest Expense                              -1,120      -1,029        -245
  Income Before Taxes                            7,833       4,612       3,546
  Income Tax Expense                             2,618       1,751       1,427
  Minority Interest                                  0           0           0


Net Income from Continuing Op.s                  5,215       2,861       2,119

Non-recurring Events:
  Discontinued Operations                            0           0           0
  Extraordinary Items                                0           0           0
  Effect of Accounting Changes                       0           0           0
  Other Items                                        0           0           0
  Net Income                                     5,215       2,861       2,119
  Preferred Stock & Other Adjustments                0           0           0

Net Income Avail to Common Shares                5,215       2,861       2,119



Annual Cash Flow Statement:                   (All numbers in thousands)
  Period Ending                         02/28/201      2/28/2017     2/29/2016

  Net Income                                 5,215         2,861         2,119

Operating Activities:
  Depreciation                               1,251         1,079           275
  Adjustments to Net Income                  1,088         1,562         1,152
  Changes in Accounts Recv'bls                -408          -687          -676
  Changes in Liabilities                    -4,859         9,135         9,762
  Changes in Investories                     7,079       -16,772        -6,049
  Changes in other Oper'g Acts                -412           534          -673

Total Cash Flow f Operations                 9,233        -1,572         6,651

Investing Activities:
  Capital Exenditures                       -1,438        -2,485       -24,912
  Investments                                    0             0             0
  Other Cash Flows fr Investing                  0             0             0

Total Cash Flows from Investing             -1,438        -2,485       -24,912

Financing Activities:
  Dividends Paid                                 0        -1,467        -1,375
  Sale of Purchase of Stock                     68           228           203
  Net Borrowings                            -5,741         4,813        20,235
  Other Cash Flows fr Financing                  0             0             0

Total Cash Flows from Financing             -5,771         3,573        19,061

  Effect of Exchange Rate Chg                    0             0             0

Change in Cash & Cash Equiv.                 2,024          -485           800



Annual Balance Sheets:                              (All Numbers in Thousands)
  Period Ending                          02/28/201      2/28/2017     2/29/2016
Current Assets:
  Cash & Cash Equivalents                     2,723           699         1,184
  Short Term Investments                          0             0             0
  Net Receivables                             2,814         2,917         2,513
  Inventory                                  26,619        34,253        17,480
  Other Current Assets                            0             0           298
  Total Current Assets                       32,156        37,869        21,475

  Long-Term Investments                           0             0             0
  Property, Plant & Equipt                   27,861        27,034        26,710
  Goodwill                                        0             0             0
  Intangible Assets                               0             0             0
  Accumulated Amortization                        0             0             0
  Other Assets                                  463           382           482
  Deferred LT Asset Charges                       0           128            51

Total Assets                                 61,621        65,980        49,695

Current Liabilities:
  Accounts Payable                           12,469        17,565         7,801
  Current Portion LT Debt                    20,706        26,447        21,635
  Other Current Liabilities                   3,452         2,548         4,333
  Total Current Liabilities                  36,627        46,561         33,769

  Long Term Debt                             12,469        17,565         7,801
  Other Liabilities                          20,706        26,447        21,635
  Deferred LT Liab. Charges                   3,452         2,548         4,333
  Minority Interest                               0             0             0
  Negative Goodwill                               0             0             0

Total Liabilities                            56,695        67,226        51,456

Stockholder Equity:
  Misc. Options, Warrants                         0             0             0
  Redeemable Preferred Stock                      0             0             0
  Preferred Stock                                 0             0             0
  Common Stock                                1,209         1,208         1,208
  Retained Earnings                          21,533        16,318        14,558
  Treasury Stock                            -10,913       -10,857       -11,084
  Capital Surplus                             8,573         8,548         8,548
  Other Stockhohlder Equity                       0             0             0
  Total Stockholder Equity                   20,402        15,217        13,230

Net Tangible Assets                          20,402        15,217        13,230



Educational Development Corporation (EDUC)  [Indices near +3.0, near zero,
                                            or < zero bear special attention.]
P/E Ratio Tests:
P/E Ratio < 28?            1.9113          P/E Ratio > 5?             1.0000
P/E Ratio Vs Growth Rate:  3.0000          Forward P/E Ratio < 28?    0.0000
Price/Sales Ratio < 2.3?   3.0000          Inventory/Sales < 5%?      0.2103
Sales < $1 Billion?        3.0000          Operating Margin < 7.5%?   1.1211

Balance Sheet Tests:
Debt/Equity < 0.40?        0.4264          Long-Term Debt Service:    0.2485
LTD Being Reduced?         0.0000          Short-Term Debt Service:  -3.0000
Current Ratio > 2?         0.4390          Working Capital >= 1.5?    1.7314
Leverage Ratio < 20%?      0.3244          Debt/Assets < 1?           3.0000
Quick Ratio > 1?           3.0000          Inventory Turnover > 1?    0.2545
Share Equity Increase:     2.4910          Market Cap.< 1.5 Billion?  3.0000
                                           Intangibles < 3% Assets?   3.0000
Income Tests:
Profit Margin < 7.5%?      0.6733          EPS Annual Growth > 10%?   0.0549
Dividend Yield > 2.0%?     1.0000          EPS 3-yr Growth > 15?      0.0610
Enterprise Value/Revenue   0.7551          EPS Growth Consistent?     2.0000
Enterprise Value/EBITDA:   3.0000          Collection < 45 days?      3.0000
EPS Qrtly Growth > 10%?    0.0021          Gross Pft/Cur. LTD > 1?    3.0000
                                           Borrowing Int. Rate < 6%? -1.0625
Stock Performance Tests:
Volatility > 25%?          2.6753          % Held by Insiders < 5%?   0.1409
Beta > 1.25?               1.7360          % Held by Institut. < 50?  1.3437
50 Da MA > 200 Da MA?     -0.3496          % Held by Institut. > 30?  1.2403
52-Wk Change vs. S&P 500:  3.0000          Short Ratio > 5?           0.4540
Price/Book Value < 3?      0.7896          Short % of Float > 20?     0.0915
Return on Assets > 17%?    0.4500          Average Volume > 100,000?  0.2425

Cash Flow Tests:
Oper. C.F. > Lever'd C.F:  1.3711          Positive Free Cash Flow?   3.0000
Positive Oper. Cash Flow?  3.0000          Price to C.F.Ratio < 14?:  2.7230
                                           Cash Flow / Assets > 10%?  2.6681

EDUC   Educational Development Corporation Overall Zenith Index:      1.3312


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Financial Statements

EDUCATIONAL DEVELOPMENT CORP  (EDUC)        INCOME STATEMENT

Fiscal year ends in February.                        2014-02         2015-02         2016-02         2017-02         2018-02             TTM           

Revenue                                           26,097,000      32,548,300      63,618,300     106,628,096     111,966,096     115,047,200
Cost of revenue                                   10,523,500      12,763,900      20,494,200      28,613,500      30,931,300      32,002,200
Gross profit                                      15,573,500      19,784,400      43,124,100      78,014,600      81,034,800      83,045,000


Operating expenses
Sales, General and administrative                 14,321,800      18,398,000      39,810,700      72,986,096      73,666,496      75,234,400
Total operating expenses                          14,321,800      18,398,000      39,810,700      72,986,096      73,666,496      75,234,400

Operating income                                   1,251,700       1,386,400       3,313,400       5,028,500       7,368,300       7,810,600
Interest Expense                                           0               0         244,900       1,028,800       1,119,500       1,051,400
Other income (expense)                              -378,200          16,100         477,400         612,400       1,583,900       1,587,100
Income before taxes                                  873,500       1,402,500       3,545,900       4,612,100       7,832,700       8,346,300
Provision for income taxes                           515,900         543,300       1,426,600       1,751,200       2,618,000       2,540,300
Net income from continuing operations                357,600         859,200       2,119,300       2,860,900       5,214,700       5,806,000
Net income                                           357,600         859,200       2,119,300       2,860,900       5,214,700       5,806,000
Net income available to common shareholders          357,600         859,200       2,119,300       2,860,900       5,214,700       5,806,000

Earnings per share
Basic                                                   0.09            0.21            0.52            0.70            1.28            1.42 
Diluted                                                 0.09            0.21            0.52            0.70            1.27            1.41 

Weighted average shares outstanding
Basic                                              3,968,214       4,003,702       4,049,154       4,077,695       4,087,998       4,087,611
Diluted                                            3,968,214       4,003,702       4,051,678       4,082,854       4,090,661       4,090,318

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


EDUCATIONAL DEVELOPMENT CORP  (EDUC)        BALANCE SHEET

Fiscal year ends in February.                        2014-02         2015-02         2016-02         2017-02         2018-02             

Assets

Current assets

Cash

Total cash                                           680,000         383,900       1,183,700         699,200       2,723,300

Receivables                                        3,000,800       3,076,700       2,513,300       2,917,000       2,813,800
Inventories                                        9,869,400      11,181,000      17,479,500      34,253,100      26,618,500
Deferred income taxes                                259,300         249,800         298,200         466,600               0
Prepaid expenses                                     262,200         374,200       1,028,100         695,200       1,142,000
Total current assets                              14,071,700      15,265,600      22,502,800      39,031,100      33,297,600

Non-current assets

Property, plant and equipment
Gross property, plant and equipment                4,814,200       5,139,200      30,050,800      31,453,800      33,528,100
Accumulated Depreciation                          -2,936,600      -3,066,000      -3,340,500      -4,419,500      -5,667,600
Net property, plant and equipment                  1,877,600       2,073,200      26,710,300      27,034,300      27,860,500

Deferred income taxes                                 71,400          80,200          50,900               0               0
Other long-term assets                               737,600         594,200         431,000         253,500         462,800
Total non-current assets                           2,686,600       2,747,600      27,192,200      27,287,800      28,323,300

Total assets                                      16,758,300      18,013,200      49,695,000      66,318,900      61,620,900 

Liabilities and stockholders' equity

Liabilities

Current liabilities
Short-term debt                                            0       1,400,000       3,947,200       5,781,400         881,200
Accounts payable                                   2,543,700       2,237,700       7,801,300      17,565,300      12,469,000
Taxes payable                                        140,900         244,600         948,800       1,945,100       2,356,400
Accrued liabilities                                  514,900       1,310,000       1,348,400       1,990,600       3,791,300
Deferred revenues                                          0               0       2,925,200         633,100         693,000
Other current liabilities                            976,400         492,600       1,807,200       2,181,600         959,900
Total current liabilities                          4,175,900       5,684,900      18,778,100      30,097,100      21,150,800

Non-current liabilities
Long-term debt                                             0               0      17,687,400      20,665,800      19,825,100
Deferred taxes liabilities                                 0               0               0         338,600         136,900
Other long-term liabilities                                0               0               0               0         106,000
Total non-current liabilities                              0               0      17,687,400      21,004,400      20,068,000

Total liabilities                                  4,175,900       5,684,900      36,465,500      51,101,500      41,218,800 

Stockholders' equity

Common stock                                       1,208,200       1,208,200       1,208,200       1,208,200       1,209,200
Additional paid-in capital                         8,548,000       8,548,000       8,548,000       8,548,000       8,573,300
Retained earnings                                 14,280,500      13,857,200      14,557,500      16,317,800      21,532,500
Treasury stock                                   -11,454,300     -11,285,100     -11,084,200     -10,856,600     -10,912,900
Total stockholders' equity                        12,582,400      12,328,300      13,229,500      15,217,400      20,402,100
Total liabilities and stockholders' equity        16,758,300      18,013,200      49,695,000      66,318,900      61,620,900

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


EDUCATIONAL DEVELOPMENT CORP  (EDUC)        Statement of CASH FLOW

Fiscal year ends in February. USD.                   2014-02         2015-02         2016-02         2017-02         2018-02             TTM           

Cash Flows From Operating Activities
Net income                                           357,600         859,200       2,119,300       2,860,900       5,214,700       5,806,000
Depreciation & amortization                          115,400         129,400         274,500       1,079,000       1,251,000       1,310,500
Investment/asset impairment charges                  430,300               0               0       1,082,300               0               0
Deferred income taxes                                127,600             700         -19,100         221,100         264,900         398,500
Change in working capital                            756,200      -2,531,900       3,104,400      -7,073,900       1,679,400       4,123,300
Accounts receivable                                 -559,700      -1,356,900        -676,200        -686,900        -407,700          43,700
Inventory                                            -55,900      -1,192,200      -6,048,600     -16,771,700       7,079,000       1,446,300
Prepaid expenses                                     165,900         -88,000        -672,500         533,500        -412,300        -109,100
Accounts payable                                           0               0               0               0      -4,918,900       3,581,700
Income taxes payable                                       0               0         739,500         716,300         279,400         102,700
Other working capital                              1,205,900         105,200       9,762,200       9,134,900          59,900        -942,000
Other non-cash items                                 978,000       1,281,000       1,171,500         258,200         822,700         703,900
Net cash provided by operating activities          2,765,100        -261,600       6,650,600      -1,572,400       9,232,700      12,342,200

Cash Flows From Investing Activities
Investments in property, plant, and equipmen         -77,500        -325,000     -24,911,600      -2,485,400      -1,437,700      -2,005,000
Net cash used for investing activities               -77,500        -325,000     -24,911,600      -2,485,400      -1,437,700      -2,005,000

Cash Flows From Financing Activities
Debt issued                                        1,250,000       4,550,000      23,281,800       5,551,100       1,019,000         341,600
Debt repayment                                    -2,500,000      -3,150,000      -3,047,200        -738,500      -1,877,000      -1,909,300
Common stock issued                                  174,000         174,400         202,500         227,800          42,100          58,200
Common stock repurchased                            -129,200          -5,200          -1,600            -200         -98,400        -128,000
Dividend paid                                     -1,271,500      -1,278,700      -1,374,700      -1,466,900               0               0
Other financing activities                                 0               0               0               0      -4,856,600      -4,856,600
Net cash provided by (used for) financing         -2,476,700         290,500      19,060,800       3,573,300      -5,770,900      -6,494,100

Net change in cash                                   210,900        -296,100         799,800        -484,500       2,024,100       3,843,100
Cash at beginning of period                          469,100         680,000         383,900       1,183,700         699,200         587,800
Cash at end of period                                680,000         383,900       1,183,700         699,200       2,723,300       4,430,900

Free Cash Flow
Operating cash flow                                2,765,100        -261,600       6,650,600      -1,572,400       9,232,700      12,342,200
Capital expenditure                                  -77,500        -325,000     -24,911,600      -2,485,400      -1,437,700      -2,005,000
Free cash flow                                     2,687,600        -586,600     -18,261,000      -4,057,800       7,795,000      10,337,200


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Average to Current P/E Ratios
              (EDUC)     Educational Development Corp.

                               2013    2014    2015    2016    2017

          Annual Earnings:     0.09    0.21    0.52    0.70    1.27
Average Price During Year:     3.37    4.03    6.09   11.47    9.76

                P/E Ratio:    37.49   19.17   11.71   16.39    7.69

 Average 5-Year P/E Ratio  =  18.49
             Current Price =  20.65

Previous 5 Quarter Earnings:   0.30    0.25    0.52    0.20    0.44

           Current Annualized (Last Four Quarters) Earnings =   1.16
                                                           ________
                                 Average PE / Current PE =     1.04
                                                           --------

                                      ...a number above 1.00 is good
                                                1.00 or below is bad


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Financial Ratios

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Market Grader

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Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Intrinsic Value by Discounted Cash Flow Method:

Intrinsic Value



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Fair Value Estimator

Fair Value Estimate:

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Projected Earnings

Earnings Estimates



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Research Reports

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Analysts' Opinions

Analysts' Opinion 1
Analysts' Opinion 1



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Insider Activity

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Insider Trades
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Institutional Activity

Institutional Orders to Buy or Sell:

institutions 1
Ownership:

institutions 2


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Sentiment

sentiment

Zenith uses the "sentiment" score above or below 50 to award a positive or negative point in the Decision Matrix.

sentiment sentiment sentiment



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Short Interest Ratio

As the short interest rises as a percentage of average daily share volume (Days to Cover), this is considered a measure of negative sentiment. Similarly, a decrease in that percentage is considered positive sentiment.

short interest short interest


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Standard & Poor's

S&P Stock Report (Requires Adobe Acrobat Reader)



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Management's Discussion of Results of Operations Excerpts

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Channeling Potential

 
The summary below includes a value for `Degree,' which refers on a
scale of 1 to 10 the range of a channel in the period under consi-
deration compared to the total range of price movement. It also looks
for the last closing price to be within the channel, otherwise zeroed.
The `Index' is the `Degree' weighted for volatility.  Generally, the
the higher the index, the more suitable is the stock for trading as
a `rolling stock' between channel high and low points.

Results for EDUCATIONAL DEVELOPMENT CORP.:
Symbol? EDUC
Total Months Available:  17
       Months in Cycle?   4

Months Covered by Periods:  12

Period 1           Period 2          Period 3
   H1      L1        H2      L2        H3      L3
  14.45    9.25     27.93   13.70     26.65   17.17

RANGE   =  27.93  TO    9.25            Close =  20.25
CHANNEL =  17.17  TO   14.45           Degree =   1
Volatility =  13.43%                    Index =   1
Channel Chart



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MACD Histogram Divergence

The theory is that connecting the two most recent peaks or valleys of the MACD histogram will signal the direction of the next major move.



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Intraday Chart

2 Days:



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Val Idea

6 out of 8 favorable, (positive opinion.)

Val Idea
Val Idea


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Stock Consultant

Stock Consultant Stock Consultant


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Point & Figure Chart

P & F Chart


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Wall Street Analyzer




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Marketspace Chart

Marketspace Chart



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Time Series Forecast

Time Series 1 Time Series 2


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Neural Network Prediction

"Neurostock" can only track long trades. Therefore its performance, as tracked by itself on stocks which are consistently falling, may not appear as good as it could if each "sell" signal were a "short sale."

Neural Chart
Heading
Neural Trades Neural Prediction



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Ultimate Trading Systems

2 out of 3 of the ultimate systems favor an upmove.


System Below:
Short term outlook: Positive: Bright Green, Negative: Bright Red
Long term outlook: Postive: Dark Green, Negative: Dark Red.




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Recommendation

Decision Weighting Factors
FactorsWeighted Points
News + 1
Comparison + 1
Industry + 1
Bond Issue 0
Zenith Index + 1
Non-GAAP vs. GAAP Earnings - 1
Cash Flow + 1
Average to Current P/E + 1
Ratios + 1
Market Grader - 1
Intrinsic Value DCF - 1
Fair Value Estimator + 1
Projected Earnings - 1
Research Reports + 1
Analysts - 1
Executive Perquisites + 1
Insider Activity + 1
Institutional Activity + 1
Management Reporting + 1
Short Interest + 1
Sentiment + 1
Standard & Poor's + 1
MACD Histogram Divergence + 1
Val Idea + 1
Stock Consultant - 1
Point & Figure + 1
Wall Street Analyzer - 1
Marketspace Chart + 1
Time Series Chart + 1
Neural Network + 1
Stock Options - 1
Ultimate Trading Systems + 1
Total + 15
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