Corporate Webpages Dollar Tree, Inc.
Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR) is an inexpensive discount department
store selling a limited amount of goods, largely imported, at
prices holding to within $1 apiece. Its stock is not performing
as well as Dollar General or certain other discount department
store sellers, and it took a big loss in a recent annual
reporting period. It is claimed by the company and some
analysts that Trump's trade tariffs will not impact earnings
significantly, but it is hard to see how that would be so.
Researchers are overwhelmingly negative on the stock. But
analysts are more optimistic. And there are a lot of analysts
following the stock, far more than most issues (22 to be exact.)
The company has been around for a long time (since 1953) and has
been holding the line amazingly throughout all the inflation
periods at $1. The company has stores in Canada under the
"Dollarama" name, and made a large acquisition of Family Dollar
Stores dividing its segments into two main groups of stores,
Family Dollar, and Dollar Tree. It closed a lot of Family
Dollar stores and restructured successfully making Family Dollar
one of its better success stories.
We have personally checked local stores and found them to be
well-managed and organized, with prices beating by far most
other discount stores but on limited selections. At times lines
at the register were long due to patronage more than mismanagement.
The store at one time had to pay a heavy fine for selling food
goods with expired "sell by" dates.
Net sales have been improving, but if one gives stuff away, the
economist's "price-elasticity" curve declares that sales will
soar but profit margins will decline, and with the $1
limitation, there is less room to maneuver adjusting sales to profits.
While researchers are negative, Standand & Poor's review is not,
suggesting a potential turnaround is in the offing. Analysts
project increasing earnings forthcoming. The company made
substantial capital expenditures on renovations following the
purchase of Family Dollar Stores and continues to open new
Dollar Tree stores at a rapid rate.
The stock chart pattern shows a forgiving cyclical pattern of
ups and downs allowing some oscillator indicators to work well.
Currently the stock appears to be near the top of a cycle. It
has an unacceptably-low Zenith Index as do most stocks recently
because of the huge market runnup and corresponding decrease in valuations.
At some point we can expect a major genereal market correction.
But if one were thinking of shorting the stock, it might be best
to wait for some downward momentum to develop as trend-following
indicators are still mostly positive.
(WAIT FOR PAGE TO LOAD COMPLETELY BEFORE LINKS WORK.)
Company Profile
Company History
News
Comparison with Peers
Bond Issue
Zenith Index
Financial Statements
Avg. P/E to Current P/E
Financial Ratios
Intrinsic Value (Disc. CashFlow)
Fair Value Estimator
Projected Earnings
Research Reports
Analysts' Opinions
Insider Activity
Institutional Activity
Sentiment
Short Interest
Standard & Poor's
Management's Discussion
Channel Potential
MACD Histogram
Intraday Chart
Val Idea
Stock Consultant
Point & Figure Chart
Wall Street Analyzer
Marketspace Chart
Time Series Forecast
Neural Network Prediction
Stock Options
Ultimate Trading Systems
Recommendation
Company Profile |
Company History |
News |
Comparison |
Similar Companies Performance:
Bond Issue |
Zenith Index |
Under current market conditions, a Zenith Index Score of 1.20 or above is required for a positive rating on this factor. 1.21 -1.30 is considered acceptable, 1.30-1.40 is considered strong and
> 1.40 is considered exceptionally strong. Accounting statements in this section often contain mistakes, especially in earlier years' totals, but data is deemed sufficient for us to give a rating. More accurate financial statements follow in the next section.
Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR) Exchange: Nasdaq 500 Volvo Parkway Chesapeake, VA 23320 Sector: Consumer Defensive United States Industry: Discount Stores Dollar Tree, Inc. operates discount variety retail stores. It operates through two segments, Dollar Tree and Family Dollar. The Dollar Tree segment offers merchandise at the fixed price of $1.00. It provides consumable merchandise, including candy and food, and health and beauty care, as well as everyday consumables, such as household paper and chemicals, and frozen and refrigerated food; variety merchandise comprising toys, durable housewares, gifts, stationery, party goods, greeting cards, softlines, and other items; and seasonal goods that include Valentine's Day, Easter, Halloween, and Christmas merchandise. This segment operates 7,001 stores under the Dollar Tree and Dollar Tree Canada brands, as well as 12 distribution centers in the United States and 2 in Canada; and a store support center in Chesapeake, Virginia. The Family Dollar segment operates general merchandise discount retail stores that offer consumable merchandise, which comprise food and beverages, tobacco, health and beauty aids, household chemicals, paper products, hardware and automotive supplies, diapers, batteries, and pet food and supplies; and home products, including housewares, home d+_cor, and giftware, as well as domestics, such as comforters, sheets, and towels. Its stores also provides apparel and accessories merchandise comprising clothing, fashion accessories, and shoes; and seasonal and electronics merchandise that include Valentine's Day, Easter, Halloween, and Christmas merchandise, as well as personal electronics, which comprise pre-paid cellular phones and services, stationery and school supplies, and toys. This segment operates stores under the Family Dollar brand; and 11 distribution centers, as well as a store support center in Matthews, North Carolina. The company was founded in 1986 and is headquartered in Chesapeake, Virginia. Last Trade: 111.74 52-Week Range: 113.67 - 78.78 Employees: 57,200 Avg.Volume: 2,137,346 Shares Corporate Governance: Pillar scores are Audit: 1; Board: 6; Shareholder Rights: 3; Compensation: 7. (A lower number means less governance risk.) EPS: -6.63 Dividend Amount: $ 0.00 Yield: 0.00% Ex-Dividend Date: N/A Payout Ratio: 0.00 Key Statistics: Trailing P/E: 0.00 Forward P/E (est.): 18.70 Target Price: 112.32 Qrtly Stock Price Growth (yoy): 30.49% Beta: 0.64 Qrtly S&P Index Growth (yoy): 3.90% Short Ratio: 2.40% Qrtly Revenue Growth (yoy): 52.00% Shares Out: 236620000 Qrtly Earnings Growth (yoy): -34.20% Book Value: 24.77 Debt/Equity: 174.76% Price/Book Value: 4.48 Operating Profit Margin: 7.02% Price/Sales: 1.13 Profit Margin: -6.77% Market Cap: 26,282,000,000 Return on Equity: -23.34% Enterprise Value: 35,910,000,000 Return on Assets: 5.74% Operating Cash Flow: 1,766,000 Free Cash Flow: -650,600 Annual Income Statement: (All numbers in thousands) Period Ending 1/31/2019 1/31/2018 1/31/2017 Total Revenue 22,823,300 22,245,500 20,719,200 Cost of Revenue 15,875,800 15,223,600 14,324,500 Gross Profit 6,947,500 7,021,900 6,394,700 Operating Expenses: Research & Development 0 0 0 Selling, General & Administrative 5,160,000 5,004,300 4,689,900 Total Operating Expenses 5,160,000 5,004,300 4,689,900 Operating Income or Loss 1,787,500 2,017,600 1,704,800 Income from Continuing Operations: Total Other Income/Expenses Net -2,726,500 -11,800 100 Interest Expense 370,000 301,800 375,500 Income Before Taxes -1,309,000 1,704,000 1,329,400 Income Tax Expense 281,800 -10,300 433,200 Net Income from Continuing Op.s -1,590,800 1,714,300 896,200 Non-recurring Events: Extraordinary Items 0 0 0 Net Income -1,590,800 1,714,300 896,200 Net Income Avail to Common Shares -1,590,800 1,714,300 896,200 Annual Cash Flow Statement: (All numbers in thousands) Period Ending 1/31/2019 1/31/2018 1/31/2017 Net Income -1,590,800 1,714,300 896,200 Operating Activities: Depreciation 621,100 611,200 637,500 Changes in Accounts Recv'bls 0 0 0 Changes in Liabilities 948,900 878,000 1,107,700 Changes in Inventories -369,200 -300,900 21,900 Changes in other Oper'g Acts -222,000 -452,300 137,500 Total Cash Flow f Operations 1,766,000 1,510,200 1,673,300 Investing Activities: Capital Exenditures -817,100 -632,200 -565,600 Investments 0 0 0 Other Cash Flows fr Investing 400 300 -900 Total Cash Flows from Investing -816,700 -627,900 -483,600 Financing Activities: Dividends Paid 0 0 0 Sale of Purchase of Stock 0 35,000 41,500 Other Cash Flows fr Financing -178,500 -27,400 -900 Total Cash Flows from Financing -1,599,900 -651,500 -1,060,500 Change in Cash & Cash Equiv. -651,100 231,400 130,300 Annual Balance Sheets: (All Numbers in Thousands) Period Ending 1/31/2019 1/31/2018 1/31/2017 Current Assets: Cash & Cash Equivalents 1,097,800 866,400 736,100 Short Term Investments 0 4,000 4,000 Net Receivables 90,400 137,900 154,700 Inventory 3,169,300 2,865,800 2,885,500 Other Current Assets 309,200 3,938,000 3,935,900 Total Current Assets 4,576,300 3,938,000 3,935,900 Long-Term Investments 6,392,800 5,810,300 5,297,500 Property, Plant & Equipt 3,200,700 3,115,800 3,125,500 Goodwill 5,025,200 5,023,500 5,021,700 Intangible Assets 3,480,100 3,573,700 3,675,200 Other Assets 42,500 8,647,800 8,839,800 Total Assets 16,332,800 15,701,600 15,901,200 Current Liabilities: Accounts Payable 1,174,800 1,119,600 1,251,900 Current Portion LT Debt 178,800 154,500 153,100 Other Current Liabilities 736,900 2,105,900 2,095,400 Total Current Liabilities 2,859,100 2,105,900 2,095,400 Long Term Debt 4,762,100 6,169,700 7,238,400 Other Liabilities 500,300 8,206,200 9,398,900 Total Liabilities 9,150,500 10,312,100 11,494,300 Stockholder Equity: Common Stock 2,400 2,400 2,400 Retained Earnings 4,666,900 2,952,600 2,056,400 Capital Surplus -32,300 -37,600 -43,100 Total Stockholder Equity 7,182,300 5,389,500 4,406,900 Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR) [Indices near +3.0, near zero, or < zero bear special attention.] P/E Ratio Tests: P/E Ratio < 28? 0.0000 P/E Ratio > 5? 0.0000 P/E Ratio Vs Growth Rate: 0.0000 Forward P/E Ratio < 28? 1.4973 Price/Sales Ratio < 2.3? 2.0354 Inventory/Sales < 5%? 0.3601 Sales < $1 Billion? 0.0438 Operating Margin < 7.5%? 1.0684 Balance Sheet Tests: Debt/Equity < 0.40? 0.2289 Long-Term Debt Service: 1.5082 LTD Being Reduced? 3.0000 Short-Term Debt Service: 0.0000 Current Ratio > 2? 0.8003 Working Capital >= 1.5? 0.9496 Leverage Ratio < 20%? 0.1922 Debt/Assets < 1? 3.0000 Quick Ratio > 1? 3.0000 Inventory Turnover > 1? 0.6142 Share Equity Increase: 2.5556 Market Cap.< 1.5 Billion? 0.0571 Intangibles < 3% Assets? 0.0576 Income Tests: Profit Margin < 7.5%? -0.9026 EPS Annual Growth > 10%? -0.1078 Dividend Yield > 2.0%? 0.0000 EPS 3-yr Growth > 15? -0.0845 Enterprise Value/Revenue 1.1517 EPS Growth Consistent? 0.0000 Enterprise Value/EBITDA: -3.0000 Collection < 45 days? 3.0000 EPS Qrtly Growth > 10%? -0.0029 Gross Pft/Cur. LTD > 1? 3.0000 Borrowing Int. Rate < 6%? 0.7722 Stock Performance Tests: Volatility > 25%? 1.2278 % Held by Insiders < 5%? 1.7794 Beta > 1.25? 0.5120 % Held by Institut. < 50? 0.5177 50 Da MA > 200 Da MA? -0.0889 % Held by Institut. > 30? 3.0000 52-Wk Change vs. S&P 500: 0.5863 Short Ratio > 5? 0.4800 Price/Book Value < 3? 3.0000 Short % of Float > 20? 0.1205 Return on Assets > 17%? 0.3376 Average Volume > 100,000? 3.0000 Cash Flow Tests: Oper. C.F. > Lever'd C.F: -2.7144 Positive Free Cash Flow? -1.0000 Positive Oper. Cash Flow? 3.0000 Price to C.F.Ratio < 14?: 2.2280 Cash Flow / Assets > 10%? 2.5609 DLTR Dollar Tree, Inc. Overall Zenith Index: 0.8853
Financial Statements |
DOLLAR TREE INC (DLTR) INCOME STATEMENT Fiscal year ends in January. USD in thousand 2015-01 2016-01 2017-01 2018-01 2019-01 TTM Revenue 8,602,200 15,498,400 20,719,200 22,245,500 22,823,300 23,293,300 Cost of revenue 5,568,200 10,841,700 14,324,500 15,223,600 15,875,800 16,333,600 Gross profit 3,034,000 4,656,700 6,394,700 7,021,900 6,947,500 6,959,700 Operating expenses Sales, General and administrative 1,993,800 3,607,000 4,689,900 5,004,300 5,160,000 5,337,900 Total operating expenses 1,993,800 3,607,000 4,689,900 5,004,300 5,160,000 5,337,900 Operating income 1,040,200 1,049,700 1,704,800 2,017,600 1,787,500 1,621,800 Interest Expense 80,100 599,400 375,500 301,800 370,000 175,400 Other income (expense) -5,900 -2,100 100 -11,800 -2,726,500 -2,728,200 Income before income taxes 954,200 448,200 1,329,400 1,704,000 -1,309,000 -1,281,800 Provision for income taxes 355,000 165,800 433,200 -10,300 281,800 295,200 Net income from continuing operations 599,200 282,400 896,200 1,714,300 -1,590,800 -1,577,000 Net income 599,200 282,400 896,200 1,714,300 -1,590,800 -1,577,000 Net income available to common shareholders 599,200 282,400 896,200 1,714,300 -1,590,800 -1,577,000 Earnings per share Basic 2.91 1.27 3.80 7.24 -6.69 -6.64 Diluted 2.90 1.26 3.78 7.21 -6.69 -6.64 Weighted average shares outstanding Basic 206,000 222,500 235,700 236,800 237,900 237,950 Diluted 207,000 223,500 236,800 237,700 238,700 238,800 ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ DOLLAR TREE INC (DLTR) BALANCE SHEET Fiscal year ends in January. USD in thousand 2015-01 2016-01 2017-01 2018-01 2019-01 Assets Current assets Cash Short-term investments 0 4,000 4,000 0 0 Total cash 864,100 740,100 870,400 1,097,800 422,100 Receivables 0 154,700 137,900 90,400 100,900 Inventories 1,035,700 2,885,500 2,865,800 3,169,300 3,536,000 Deferred income taxes 28,300 0 0 0 0 Prepaid expenses 66,500 155,600 63,900 218,800 234,300 Total current assets 1,994,600 3,935,900 3,938,000 4,576,300 4,293,300 Non-current assets Property, plant and equipment Land 79,000 180,800 193,800 208,000 215,300 Fixtures and equipment 1,385,200 2,457,800 2,735,400 3,003,300 3,348,700 Other properties 1,506,000 2,658,900 2,881,100 3,181,500 3,571,900 Property and equipment, at cost 2,970,200 5,297,500 5,810,300 6,392,800 7,135,900 Accumulated Depreciation -1,759,700 -2,172,000 -2,694,500 -3,192,100 -3,690,600 Property, plant and equipment, net 1,210,500 3,125,500 3,115,800 3,200,700 3,445,300 Equity and other investments 0 12,100 9,000 8,000 0 Goodwill 164,600 5,021,700 5,023,500 5,025,200 2,296,600 Intangible assets 1,500 3,675,200 3,573,700 3,480,100 3,388,700 Deferred income taxes 32,800 10,300 0 0 0 Other long-term assets 163,000 120,500 41,600 42,500 77,300 Total non-current assets 1,572,400 11,965,300 11,763,600 11,756,500 9,207,900 Total assets 3,567,000 15,901,200 15,701,600 16,332,800 13,501,200 Liabilities and stockholders' equity Liabilities Current liabilities Short-term debt 0 108,000 152,100 915,900 0 Accounts payable 433,600 1,251,900 1,119,600 1,174,800 1,416,400 Taxes payable 73,300 156,300 253,100 208,100 219,500 Accrued liabilities 48,300 153,100 154,500 178,800 95,400 Other current liabilities 306,400 426,100 426,600 381,500 364,400 Total current liabilities 861,600 2,095,400 2,105,900 2,859,100 2,095,700 Non-current liabilities Long-term debt 757,000 7,238,400 6,169,700 4,762,100 4,265,300 Deferred taxes liabilities 0 1,586,600 1,458,900 985,200 973,200 Other long-term liabilities 163,400 573,900 577,600 544,100 524,100 Total non-current liabilities 920,400 9,398,900 8,206,200 6,291,400 5,762,600 Total liabilities 1,782,000 11,494,300 10,312,100 9,150,500 7,858,300 Stockholders' equity Common stock 2,100 2,400 2,400 2,400 2,400 Additional paid-in capital 43,000 2,391,200 2,472,100 2,545,300 2,602,700 Retained earnings 1,774,000 2,056,400 2,952,600 4,666,900 3,076,100 Accumulated other comprehensive income -34,100 -43,100 -37,600 -32,300 -38,300 Total stockholders' equity 1,785,000 4,406,900 5,389,500 7,182,300 5,642,900 Total liabilities and stockholders' equity 3,567,000 15,901,200 15,701,600 16,332,800 13,501,200 ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ DOLLAR TREE INC (DLTR) Statement of CASH FLOW Fiscal year ends in January. USD in thousand 2015-01 2016-01 2017-01 2018-01 2019-01 TTM Cash Flows From Operating Activities Depreciation & amortization 205,900 487,600 637,500 611,200 621,100 623,400 Investment/asset impairment charges 0 0 0 18,500 2,727,000 0 Stock based compensation 38,300 53,200 61,600 65,700 63,100 0 Inventory -6,000 -87,800 21,900 -300,900 -369,200 0 Prepaid expenses -12,200 -63,500 117,200 -114,600 0 0 Accounts payable 41,900 183,900 -133,800 54,500 242,600 0 Income taxes payable -4,600 3,100 77,100 -58,500 28,500 0 Other working capital 78,100 -176,000 55,100 -32,800 -123,900 -30,500 Other non-cash items 585,400 380,400 836,700 1,267,100 -1,423,200 1,248,300 Net cash provided by operating activities 926,800 780,900 1,673,300 1,510,200 1,766,000 1,841,200 Cash Flows From Investing Activities Investments in property, plant, and equipmen -325,600 -480,500 -565,600 -632,200 -817,100 -927,600 Property, plant, and equipment reductions 0 0 0 0 400 0 Acquisitions, net 0 -6,527,700 0 0 0 0 Purchases of investments -6,800 -23,700 -36,100 0 0 0 Sales/Maturities of investments 15,800 53,000 118,100 4,000 0 0 Other investing charges 1,600 500 0 300 0 16,900 Net cash used for investing activities -315,000 -6,978,400 -483,600 -627,900 -816,700 -910,700 Cash Flows From Financing Activities Long-term debt issued 0 12,130,200 3,102,500 0 4,825,800 0 Long-term debt repayment -12,800 -5,926,700 -4,176,200 -659,100 -6,264,700 -782,000 Other financing activities -1,800 -133,100 13,200 7,600 -161,000 -148,200 Net cash provided by (used for) financing -14,600 6,070,400 -1,060,500 -651,500 -1,599,900 -930,200 Effect of exchange rate changes -800 -900 1,100 600 -500 700 Net change in cash 596,400 -128,000 130,300 231,400 -651,100 1,000 Cash at beginning of period 267,700 864,100 736,100 866,400 1,097,800 647,300 Cash at end of period 864,100 736,100 866,400 1,097,800 446,700 648,300 Free Cash Flow Operating cash flow 926,800 780,900 1,673,300 1,510,200 1,766,000 1,841,200 Capital expenditure -325,600 -480,500 -565,600 -632,200 -817,100 -927,600 Free cash flow 601,200 300,400 1,107,700 878,000 948,900 913,600 ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Average to Current P/E Ratios |
(DLTR) Dollar Tree Inc. 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Annual Earnings: 2.89 1.26 3.78 7.21 -6.69 Average Price During Year: 54.69 74.17 83.97 79.19 95.07 P/E Ratio: 18.93 58.87 22.21 10.98 14.21 Average 5-Year P/E Ratio = 25.04 Current Price = 111.07 Previous 5 Quarter Earnings: 1.15 1.18 -9.69 1.12 0.76 Current Annualized (Last Four Quarters) Earnings = -7.81 ________ Average PE / Current PE = -1.76 -------- ...a number above 1.00 is good 1.00 or below is bad
Financial Ratios |
. . . . . . . . . . . . Lowest to Highest, Compared to Industry
Intrinsic Value (DCF) |
Intrinsic Value by Discounted Cash Flow Method:
Fair Value Estimator |
Fair Value Estimate:
Projected Earnings |
Research Reports |
Analysts' Opinions |
Insider Activity |
Institutional Activity |
Institutional Orders to Buy or Sell:
Sentiment |
Zenith uses the "sentiment" score above or below 50 to award a positive or negative point in the Decision Matrix.
Short Interest Ratio |
As the short interest rises as a percentage of average daily share volume (Days to Cover), this is considered a measure of negative sentiment. Similarly, a decrease in that percentage is considered positive sentiment.
Standard & Poor's |
Management's Discussion of Results of Operations Excerpts |
Channeling Potential |
The summary below includes a value for `Degree,' which refers on a scale of 1 to 10 the range of a channel in the period under consi- deration compared to the total range of price movement. It also looks for the last closing price to be within the channel, otherwise zeroed. The `Index' is the `Degree' weighted for volatility. Generally, the the higher the index, the more suitable is the stock for trading as a `rolling stock' between channel high and low points. Results for DOLLAR TREE INC.: Symbol? DLTR Total Months Available: 25 Months in Cycle? 4 Months Covered by Periods: 12 Period 1 Period 2 Period 3 H1 L1 H2 L2 H3 L3 99.71 78.78 111.61 93.84 113.38 89.41 RANGE = 113.38 TO 78.78 Close = 111.74 CHANNEL = 99.71 TO 93.84 Degree = 2 Volatility = 5.25% Index = 1
MACD Histogram Divergence |
The theory is that connecting the two most recent peaks or valleys of the MACD histogram will signal the direction of the next major move.
Intraday Chart |
2 Days:
Val Idea |
2 out of 12 favorable, (negative opinion.)
Stock Consultant |
Point & Figure Chart |
Wall Street Analyzer |
Marketspace Chart |
Time Series Forecast |
Neural Network Prediction |
"Neurostock" can only track long trades. Therefore its performance, as tracked by itself on stocks which are consistently falling, may not appear as good as it could if each "sell" signal were a "short sale."
Ultimate Trading Systems |
3 out of 3 of the ultimate systems favor an upmove.
System Below:
Short term outlook: Positive: Bright Green, Negative: Bright Red
Long term outlook: Postive: Dark Green, Negative: Dark Red.
Recommendation |
Factors | Weighted Points |
---|---|
News | + 1 |
Comparison | + 1 |
Industry | + 1 |
Bond Issue | + 1 |
Zenith Index | - 1 |
Non-GAAP vs. GAAP Earnings | + 1 |
Cash Flow | + 1 |
Average to Current P/E | - 1 |
Ratios | - 1 |
Intrinsic Value DCF | + 1 |
Fair Value Estimator | - 1 |
Projected Earnings | + 1 |
Research Reports | - 1 |
Analysts | + 1 |
Executive Perquisites | - 1 |
Insider Activity | - 1 |
Institutional Activity | - 1 |
Management Reporting | + 1 |
Short Interest | + 1 |
Sentiment | + 1 |
Standard & Poor's | + 1 |
MACD Histogram Divergence | + 1 |
Val Idea | - 1 |
Stock Consultant | + 1 |
Point & Figure | + 1 |
Wall Street Analyzer | - 1 |
Marketspace Chart | + 1 |
Time Series Chart | - 1 |
Neural Network | - 1 |
Stock Options | + 1 |
Ultimate Trading Systems | + 1 |
Total | + 7 |
Place 265 shares of Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR) on the Active List.