In Arkansas, many farmers are finishing their rice harvest and beginning soybean harvest. Others were preparing fields for next year's crop. Yields remain good. Rains received last week will slow things up in some counties while dry conditions caused concern for wild fires in other counties. Recently, modest sales increases were shown for the rice export market. A net total of 41,600 MT was on the low side of positive for the market in recent exports, but consistent sales in excess of 65,000 MT per week are needed to help keep the trade moving and year end carryout stocks under control. In Asian markets, benchmark pricing slipped slightly downward. Much of price fluctuations have to do with turmoil in international markets and politics. Some local supply and demand factors are playing into the Asian pricing as well. Projections for exports remain flat. Overall quality on the U.S. rice harvest seems good with minimal reports of damage.

There is muted demand for Indian rice despite price correction. Vietnamese rice rates edged up from a 12-year low benefitting from higher Thai rates. Concerns over supply persist due to floods in northeastern Thailand that have damaged rice growing areas. This does not seem to have had an immediate impact on rice prices, traders said. Buyers seem to be heading to Vietnam as prices in Thailand are a lot higher. Bangladesh is considering providing a subsidy to farmers who suffered a double blow of low rice prices and high harvesting costs, in an effort to reduce production costs and boost domestic output according to its agricultural minister. To make it profitable, they must use more machinery with the subsidy helpling farmers to buy machinery and minimize labor costs. Dhaka has been unable to clinch overaseas deals since a long-standing export ban was lifted in May, as its rice ismore expensive than India's or Thailand's, despite a recent fall in local prices.

Most rice shipments from Vietnam will be bound for West Africa and Malaysia.

Matthew Morell of the International Rice Research Institute said that traditional rice farming has to adapt as the world urbanizes. That includes using less water and increasing mechanization.

Climate change is expected to increase cost of farm programs. The Federal Crop Insurance Program, Agricultural Risk Coverage, Price Loss Coverage, and other programs of the USDA costs are expected to increase as weather averages and extremes change over the coming decades. Analyzed were direct impact of climate on yield risk, indirect effect of yield risk on price risk, and the impact of changed average yeild, production, and price on the total value insured. Total liabilities significance exceeded price volatility and yield volatility on the cost, although all factors were found to be significant. Insurance prices would be about 3.5% higher with a climate similar to the recent past, but under a higher emissions scenario, the cost increase could be 22%.

Mexico in September banned imports of Uruguayan rice after finding a khapra beetle in a container earlier this month. The National Health Service, Food Safety and Food Quality (SENASICA) in Mexico ha withdrawn Uruguay from the list of approved countries that can supply milled rice to Mexico. Uruguay had a 60% share for Mexico's milled rice imports so far this year. The U.S, as the second largest supplier, has an opportunity to showcase the quality and reliability of U.S. milled rice to the trade in Mexico while Uruguay is out of the market. Argentina, Brazil, Guyana, India, Italy, Paraguay, Thailand, and Vietnam can also supply milled rice to Mexico. Their combined exports to Mexico in the first eight months of 2019 amounted to less than 5,000 metric tonnes. Uruguay has supplied 72,000 MT and the U.S. 45,000 MT.

Lots of rain in MIssouri helped rice farmers reduce water bills, but hindered spraying and fertilizing in a timely manner. Lack of grass control increased populations of rice stinkbugs. Sopme fields were sprayed twice. The yields are a little below average. Acreage for rice in Missouri is down between 20% and 30% from the previous year.

The forecast for worldwide output of milled rice for the current crop year was lowered by 3.8 million MT to 513.5 MT, due to unfavorable weather in major rice-growing countries including the Phillippines, according to the United Nation's Food and Agricultural Organization. The all-time production high was last year at 517.3 million tons. Decreases are described as "small."

Our assessment of the current news is that rice prices are described by many sources as "stable" but are oscillating about current levels making for reactive trading opportunities. A trading range of roughly 11.40 to 12.40 per hundredweight. We appear to be in the middle of that range but headed downward. Muted demand from Asia appears to be the most significant news factor.