Introduction Nirvana Internal Progrms Historic Range
August 29, 2026
December soybean oil futures (ZLZ26) have become one of the more volatile agricultural markets, with government biofuel policy now competing with traditional supply-and-demand fundamentals for control of price direction.
December soybean oil closed Friday, August 28, near 71.06 cents per pound, gaining approximately 3.7% for the session. The rally followed an extraordinary decline earlier in the week in which December futures fell from above 71 cents to approximately 66 cents. The primary cause of the collapse was uncertainty concerning U.S. renewable-fuel policy.
The Environmental Protection Agency has been considering additional Small Refinery Exemptions under the Renewable Fuel Standard. These exemptions allow qualifying refiners to avoid some renewable-fuel blending obligations. Because soybean oil is an important feedstock for renewable diesel and biodiesel, anything that reduces required biofuel production can potentially reduce soybean-oil demand.
Reports indicate that proposed exemptions could represent approximately 1.2 billion to 1.8 billion renewable-fuel credits. The possibility of those exemptions contributed to the sudden liquidation of the substantial biofuel premium that had accumulated in soybean-oil futures.
However, the situation is considerably more complicated than simply "more exemptions equal lower soybean oil."
The Administration reportedly is considering offsetting additional refinery exemptions by increasing future renewable-fuel requirements. One proposal under discussion would add approximately 500 million gallons to 2027 biofuel requirements. Such an adjustment could restore much of the soybean-oil demand that traders initially feared would disappear.
Consequently, the market is presently attempting to determine not merely how many refinery exemptions will be granted, but whether the government will subsequently reallocate the exempted renewable-fuel volume.
This explains the extraordinary volatility of the past several trading sessions.
Fundamentals Remain Relatively Supportive
The August USDA outlook forecasts a very large 2026 U.S. soybean crop of approximately 4.52 billion bushels, which ordinarily would be bearish for soybean products.
However, USDA simultaneously increased projected U.S. soybean crush to approximately 2.78 billion bushels. Global soybean crush is also expected to increase substantially during 2026/27 as demand for soybean meal and soybean oil continues to expand. USDA presently expects worldwide soybean-oil consumption to increase approximately 3% during 2026/27.
Thus, abundant soybean production does not automatically translate into excessive soybean-oil supplies. Increasing renewable-diesel capacity and growing crush demand continue to absorb substantial quantities of soybeans and soybean oil.
Palm Oil Provides Additional Support
Petroleum Is Another Important Variable
Vegetable oils increasingly compete indirectly with petroleum because of renewable diesel and biodiesel. Crude petroleum prices remain historically elevated because of continuing Middle East disruptions, although crude prices declined during the latest week. WTI finished Friday near $83 per barrel while Brent remained near $89. Persistently expensive petroleum tends to improve the economics of renewable fuels and therefore supports vegetable-oil demand. A major decline in petroleum prices would have the opposite effect. For this reason, soybean-oil traders should now watch the petroleum market almost as carefully as the soybean market itself.
Technical Picture
On the upside, the first important obstacle appears around: 71.30–71.75 cents. This is approximately where the preceding decline began and where sellers previously appeared.
A decisive close above that area would considerably improve the technical outlook and could permit another test of the summer highs.
The larger resistance area is approximately: 74–75 cents. ZLZ26 reached a 2026 high near 74.55 cents earlier this summer. Penetration of that level would constitute an important technical breakout.
Speculative Positioning
Recent Commitment of Traders figures also deserve attention.
As of August 18, managed-money traders held approximately 116,700 long soybean-oil contracts compared with only about 25,400 shorts.
Thus, speculative funds remain heavily net long soybean oil.
This is potentially bullish because professional money has been attracted to the long side of the market. It is simultaneously a risk: when a market contains a large speculative long position, unfavorable news can produce exceptionally violent liquidation.
The plunge from 71 cents to approximately 66 cents demonstrated precisely that danger.
What Happens Next?
One present assessment is cautiously bullish, but with unusually high headline risk.
Friday's recovery is particularly significant. A market that collapses on bearish news but then rapidly recovers much of the decline is often indicating that underlying buying interest remains strong.
The fundamental background also does not appear sufficiently bearish to justify assuming that a major soybean-oil decline has begun. World vegetable-oil consumption continues growing, U.S. soybean crush remains strong, renewable diesel remains an important source of demand, palm-oil supplies face potential constraints, and petroleum prices remain high.
The largest danger to this bullish interpretation is Washington. If the Administration grants large refinery exemptions without substantially reallocating the lost renewable-fuel volumes, soybean oil could very quickly return toward the 66-cent area and possibly break beneath it.
Conversely, if exemptions are accompanied by increased future biofuel mandates or substantial reallocation of the exempted volumes, the market could conclude that much of the feared demand destruction will never occur. Under that scenario, ZLZ26 could move back toward 74–75 cents.
At approximately 71 cents, soybean oil is presently sitting near an important decision point.
A next significant move is more likely to be upward than downward, provided ZLZ26 remains above approximately 66 cents.
A sustained move above 71.50–72.00 would strengthen that opinion considerably and would make another test of 74–75 cents increasingly likely.
For now, the news evidence favors cautious bullishness rather than aggressive bearishness, with U.S. biofuel policy likely to determine whether that judgment proves correct.A close below approximately 65.75–66.00, however, would invalidate much of the bullish argument and suggest a substantially deeper correction.
The USDA's August report supports the article's crop and crush figures: it projects a record 4.52-billion-bushel U.S. soybean crop, a 2.78-billion-bushel U.S. crush, and roughly 3% growth in global soybean-oil use. Meanwhile, the latest refinery-waiver reporting suggests the policy decision expected around the end of August could be the immediate catalyst.
Watch 71.50–72.00 very closely on the next few sessions. Friday's 3.72% rally brought ZLZ26 almost exactly back to the neighborhood from which the biofuel-policy selloff started.&nsbp;&nsbp; If it can penetrate that area rather than merely bounce against it, I would regard that as much stronger evidence that the 66-cent decline was a shakeout rather than the beginning of a new downtrend.&nsbp;
Also keep checking ZLZ26 biofuel-policy news for when something occurs that materially changes this bullish/bearish assessment.
We fed Soybean Oil, Soybeans, and Soybean Meal into a neural network to get the following result:
December Soybean Oil:
08-29-2026: December Soybean Oil: A Policy-Driven Market at a Turning Point
(Click on links below. Whole page needs to load before links work.)
Intermarket
Parabolic
News
Point & Figure
Cyclic/Seasonal
Alternate Pgrm
Margin
Commitment
Volatility
Introduction
SOYBEAN OIL — A POLICY-DRIVEN MARKET AT A TURNING POINT
Soybean oil does not trade in isolation. Palm oil, canola oil and other vegetable oils compete directly with it.
Palm-oil fundamentals have recently become somewhat more bullish. Indonesia's expanded biodiesel mandate is expected to divert additional palm oil away from export markets and into domestic fuel production.
At the same time, concerns about El Niño-related weather problems have raised the possibility of reduced palm-oil production during 2027.
Higher palm-oil prices or reduced palm-oil exports would tend to support soybean oil because importers would have fewer inexpensive alternatives.
There is a counterargument, however. Palm oil remains substantially cheaper than soybean oil. If that discount becomes too large, world buyers can substitute palm oil for soybean oil, placing a ceiling over soybean-oil prices.
The price action during the past week may prove especially significant. ZLZ26 dropped to approximately 66 cents, but buyers appeared aggressively at those levels. By Friday the contract had recovered to approximately 71 cents. That produces an important potential support area around: 65.75–66.50 cents. Failure of that area would be distinctly bearish and could signal that the larger decline is resuming.
Intermarket Analysis
Parabolic Chart
December Soybean Oil:
Nirvana Chart
We are headed toward a cyclical high and a seasonal low period.
Ticker,Rank,System,ProfitPct,Trades,Wins,Losses,Settings
ZLZ26,1,DCV,93.73,56,37,19,"Shift=20 Band=0"
ZLZ26,2,TRADER,56.71,71,23,48,"MA=12 Mode=T"
ZLZ26,3,COMMODIT,45.26,3,2,1,"RT=T MA=5/20 LL=4.13 Confirm=1.50 Score=44.26"
ZLZ26,4,PROJECT,40.77,0,0,0,"MA=4 Type=NA W-L=25"
Our alternate internal program is "Trader". It has just given a sell signal.
The point value is $600. Initial margin on a single contract is $2,035. Use of option spreads is advised.
Scale trade buyers are entering the market for the long term in this price range.
In the chart below, the yellow line is the futures price, read on the right axis. All other colors are read on the left axis. Blue is small speculators. Red is large speculators. Green is commercials. Large speculators with the best track record are getting increasingly-short.
Interpretation of a Different Site Below (Their trader categories vary from ours with regard to disaggregation.
Our Interpretation:
Looking at our Commitment of Traders chart, we would conclude Soybean Oil prices are almost certain to head higher.
The average volatility shown below suggests that a change in major trend to up is imminent near a volatility low point.
ALTERNATE APPROACH
Spread: ZLZ26 / ZLV26
Long: 1 Soybean Oil
Short: 1 Soybean Oil (Oct '26)
Latest profit: $ -13.78
Change over available last 50 records: $ 0.22
Place 5 December Soybeab Oil contracts on a Buy Watch with stoploss @ -1.00 below the get-in point when recent price is represented as "71.99".
Soybean oil recently began a downward slide.
News Analysis
Point & Figure Chart
The above chart is giving a conventional sell signal.
Cyclical and Seasonal Factors
Internal Programs
====================================================================================================================
LEVEL REPORT - VERSION 1 TOP FOUR SYSTEMS BY PROFIT PERCENT
Source folder: C:\FuturesC\SYSTEMS\
Report date: 08-30-2026 15:50:35
====================================================================================================================
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Commodity: ZLZ26
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Rank System Profit% Trades Wins Losses Settings
---- ------------ --------- ------ ---- ------ ------------------------------------------------------------
1 DCV 93.73 56 37 19 Shift=20 Band=0
2 TRADER 56.71 71 23 48 MA=12 Mode=T
3 COMMODIT 45.26 3 2 1 RT=T MA=5/20 LL=4.13 Confirm=1.50 Score=44.26
4 PROJECT 40.77 0 0 0 MA=4 Type=NA W-L=25
Trade Detail:
DCV 092623 B 51.64 113023 S 48.22 120123 B 48.08 031424 S 46.96 032524 B 47.58 032624 S 47.34
032824 B 47.02 070524 S 46.68 071024 B 44.38 092624 S 43.10 092724 B 42.36 100324 S 44.12
100924 B 42.86 110524 S 44.54 111424 B 44.04 011325 S 45.54 013025 B 44.64 040225 S 47.08
040825 B 44.50 041425 S 46.76 042125 B 47.40 042925 S 48.16 050125 B 47.18 051425 S 50.52
051625 B 47.64 061725 S 53.00 070125 B 50.86 070225 S 52.22 070925 B 51.70 012226 S 53.90
020326 B 53.26 020426 S 54.36 020526 B 55.00 020626 S 55.20 020926 B 54.92 021126 S 56.44
021226 B 56.50 022426 S 58.50 022726 B 59.40 030326 S 60.62 030426 B 60.34 031026 S 61.92
031226 B 64.19 071426 S 71.16 071526 B 70.85 071726 S 70.80 072026 B 72.74 072126 S 72.12
072826 B 69.64 072926 S 69.32 073026 B 67.70 073126 S 67.46 080426 B 68.20 080626 S 67.20
080726 B 67.20 081826 S 70.66 082426 B 67.32
TRADER 010423 S 57.80 011723 B 58.92 012023 S 57.56 013123 B 58.62 020223 S 57.62 021723 B 57.28
022423 S 55.84 040323 B 53.28 040623 S 52.22 060723 B 46.08 080223 S 54.50 081523 B 54.96
083123 S 54.76 090523 B 55.34 090623 S 54.86 091423 B 55.50 091823 S 53.70 111323 B 47.36
111723 S 46.84 112023 B 47.74 120523 S 46.80 121823 B 47.80 122123 S 46.72 020824 B 45.62
021624 S 44.44 030724 B 45.10 041024 S 46.88 051324 B 45.86 051524 S 44.68 051624 B 45.30
060324 S 44.38 070124 B 44.68 071524 S 43.14 082624 B 40.56 091024 S 40.18 091924 B 41.00
101424 S 41.74 102424 B 43.02 111824 S 44.86 121024 B 43.02 121624 S 42.20 010725 B 41.88
022725 S 45.50 032525 B 43.72 050725 S 46.86 050925 B 47.90 052925 S 48.18 061025 B 48.30
071125 S 51.40 071425 B 51.66 080125 S 51.50 082225 B 53.06 090325 S 51.00 091525 B 51.56
091825 S 50.72 100725 B 50.60 101325 S 50.24 101525 B 50.48 102925 S 50.28 111025 B 51.18
112425 S 50.78 112825 B 52.04 120925 S 51.28 010526 B 50.30 041026 S 63.26 042126 B 65.62
060926 S 70.58 070826 B 69.52 072826 S 68.94 081426 B 68.98 082426 S 67.32 082426 B 67.32
COMMODIT 032423 S 50.52 061223 B 48.78 011924 S 44.65 070524 B 46.68 071724 S 42.55 110424 B 44.90
121824 S 40.77 011325 B 45.54 061826 S 67.14 071326 B 71.27 073126 S 67.46 082126 B 71.59
PROJECT 083123 B 55.16 083123 S 55.16 121224 B 43.08 121324 S 43.04 012825 S 44.31 012925 B 44.50
020425 S 45.18 020525 B 44.78 020625 S 45.26 020725 B 45.54 022125 S 46.82 022425 B 46.10
022525 S 45.78 030625 S 43.56 030725 B 44.07 031125 S 43.12 031225 B 42.37 031325 S 42.48
031825 B 43.26 031925 S 43.16 032525 B 43.71 032825 S 45.22 033125 B 45.66 040125 S 46.14
040225 B 47.08 040425 B 46.11 040725 S 44.80 040925 B 44.40 041125 S 46.49 041725 B 47.66
042125 S 47.40 042325 B 47.38 042525 S 48.94 042825 B 48.10 043025 S 47.32 050125 B 47.18
050525 S 47.02 050625 B 46.84 050925 S 47.86 051225 B 48.80 051325 S 49.46 051425 B 50.52
051625 B 47.64 052325 S 49.46 053025 B 47.38 060225 S 46.90 060325 B 47.18 060525 S 47.58
061125 B 48.47 061825 S 53.00 062025 B 53.50 062325 S 53.78 062325 B 52.49 062525 B 51.48
062625 S 50.83 062725 B 51.30 063025 S 51.25 070125 B 50.83 070225 S 52.22 070325 B 52.47
070725 S 51.90 070925 B 51.37 071525 S 52.18 071725 B 52.90 072225 S 52.45 072825 B 52.66
072925 S 53.36 073025 B 52.90 073125 S 52.14 080125 B 51.88 080425 S 51.35 080525 B 51.91
080625 S 51.12 080725 B 51.00 080825 S 50.41 081125 B 50.42 081325 S 50.56 081525 B 49.99
081825 S 50.68 082125 B 51.61 082225 S 51.72 082525 B 53.10 082625 S 52.81 082625 B 51.63
082925 B 51.55 090925 S 51.02 091025 B 50.17 091125 S 50.72 091225 B 51.53 091525 S 51.60
091625 B 52.11 091725 S 52.26 091825 B 51.08 091925 S 50.19 092225 B 50.22 092325 S 49.50
092425 B 49.84 093025 S 49.57 100225 B 50.42 100325 S 50.12 100825 B 50.84 100925 S 51.12
101025 B 50.23 101425 S 49.56 101625 S 50.83 101725 B 50.50 102025 S 51.05 102425 B 50.46
103025 S 49.73 103125 B 49.99 110325 S 50.21 110725 B 49.55 111025 S 50.30 111125 B 51.16
111225 S 51.56 111425 B 50.80 111725 S 51.65 111825 B 52.41 111925 S 52.48 111925 B 51.40
112025 B 51.36 112125 S 50.46 112425 B 50.76 112825 S 51.50 120125 B 52.46 120225 S 52.54
120825 B 51.86 120925 S 51.19 121025 B 51.32 121125 S 51.22 121225 B 51.26 121525 S 50.46
121625 B 50.08 121725 S 49.37 121825 B 49.36 121925 S 48.63 122325 S 49.58 123125 B 49.28
010526 S 49.76 010626 B 50.38 010726 B 49.82 010926 S 50.25 011226 B 50.94 011326 S 50.72
011426 B 51.49 011526 S 51.69 011526 B 50.84 011626 S 52.88 012126 B 53.25 012226 S 53.90
012626 B 54.53 012726 B 53.90 020226 S 52.87 020326 B 53.26 020326 S 54.42 020426 S 54.66
020926 B 55.52 021026 S 55.88 021126 B 56.44 021226 S 56.50 021326 B 55.81 021826 S 57.17
021926 B 58.02 022026 S 58.60 022026 B 57.21 022426 S 58.73 022626 B 59.75 022726 S 59.58
030226 B 61.24 030326 B 60.26 030526 S 61.01 030626 B 62.17 031026 B 61.92 031126 S 63.44
031326 B 63.46 031626 S 61.88 031726 B 60.74 032526 S 62.98 032626 B 64.64 032726 S 64.42
033026 B 65.45 033126 S 65.59 040126 B 63.99 040226 S 65.54 040726 B 65.07 040826 S 63.30
040926 B 63.32 041326 S 62.44 041426 B 62.48 041626 S 63.40 041726 B 62.29 042026 S 63.22
042126 B 64.37 042226 S 65.92 042726 B 66.28 042826 S 66.74 042926 B 68.03 043026 S 68.52
050126 B 69.42 050426 S 70.21 050526 B 71.42 050626 S 71.44 050626 B 69.80 050726 B 69.78
051426 S 68.81 051526 B 69.27 051826 S 70.06 052126 B 69.88 052626 S 68.70 052726 S 69.97
052826 B 71.12 052926 S 71.66 060126 B 72.50 060226 S 73.99 060326 B 74.10 060426 S 73.98
060426 B 72.09 060526 B 72.43 060826 S 70.90 060926 B 70.71 061126 S 69.99 061226 B 69.84
061526 S 68.76 061726 B 67.24 061826 S 65.51 062626 S 67.14 063026 B 65.48 070226 S 65.87
070726 B 67.37 070826 S 67.56 070926 B 69.28 071026 S 68.93 071326 B 70.33 071426 S 71.16
071526 B 71.25 071726 B 70.80 071726 S 72.30 072026 S 73.07 072026 B 71.50 072126 B 71.96
072326 S 73.06 072426 B 72.78 072726 S 71.24 072826 B 69.64 072926 S 69.10 073126 B 67.46
080326 S 66.44 080426 S 68.44 081426 B 68.02 081726 S 69.24 081826 B 70.66 081926 B 69.27
081926 S 70.70 082126 S 71.38 082126 B 69.79 082426 B 69.24
Our best-performing internal program is "Daily Cumulative Volume". It is working on a sell signal.
Alternate Program
Margin
Historic Range
Commitment of Traders
We do not use disaggregation and place more stock in legacy category definitions.
Commercials (red) are the "smart money" who actually use the products and best informed. They are net long.
Large speculators (green) include financial institutions and funds and are often wrong because they follow trends and are caught on reversals.
Small speculators (blue) have less influence and are generally used for confirmations.
Volatility / Probable Range
Other Factors
Vertical Soybean Oil Option Spreads
Projected Futures Target: 71.30
OPSCAN RANKED CANDIDATES
WARNING: Prices are based on Barchart downloaded values, not bid/ask.
Confirm live bid/ask before placing any order.
MAIN1=ZLV26 MAIN2=ZLZ26 ALT1=
MaxRisk=500.00
Rank Market Kind Risk MaxPft ExpPft DatePft Score
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 MAIN1 Bear Put Debit 3.00 297.00 117.00 114.61 38.20
ZLV26 BUY 71.50P
ZLV26 SELL 71.00P
2 MAIN1 Bear Call Credit 6.00 594.00 -6.00 116.14 19.36
ZLV26 SELL 70.00C
ZLV26 BUY 71.00C
3 MAIN1 Bear Call Credit 15.00 135.00 135.00 130.10 8.67
ZLV26 SELL 73.75C
ZLV26 BUY 74.00C
4 MAIN1 Bull Call Debit 51.00 549.00 549.00 432.47 8.48
ZLV26 BUY 69.50C
ZLV26 SELL 70.50C
5 MAIN1 Bull Put Credit 42.00 258.00 258.00 239.56 5.70
ZLV26 SELL 70.00P
ZLV26 BUY 69.50P
6 MAIN1 Bear Call Credit 15.00 285.00 -15.00 62.26 4.15
ZLV26 SELL 70.50C
ZLV26 BUY 71.00C
7 MAIN1 Bear Put Debit 54.00 846.00 66.00 193.49 3.58
ZLV26 BUY 71.50P
ZLV26 SELL 70.00P
8 MAIN1 Bull Call Debit 144.00 606.00 606.00 445.72 3.10
ZLV26 BUY 69.50C
ZLV26 SELL 70.75C
9 MAIN1 Bull Put Credit 105.00 345.00 345.00 321.25 3.06
ZLV26 SELL 70.00P
ZLV26 BUY 69.25P
10 MAIN1 Bear Call Credit 48.00 252.00 252.00 126.08 2.63
ZLV26 SELL 71.50C
ZLV26 BUY 72.00C
11 MAIN1 Bear Put Debit 105.00 345.00 345.00 233.44 2.22
ZLV26 BUY 72.50P
ZLV26 SELL 71.75P
12 MAIN1 Bear Put Debit 81.00 369.00 339.00 176.74 2.18
ZLV26 BUY 72.00P
ZLV26 SELL 71.25P
13 MAIN1 Bull Put Credit 24.00 126.00 126.00 48.64 2.03
ZLV26 SELL 71.25P
ZLV26 BUY 71.00P
14 MAIN1 Bull Put Credit 39.00 111.00 111.00 77.40 1.98
ZLV26 SELL 70.50P
ZLV26 BUY 70.25P
15 MAIN1 Bear Call Credit 45.00 105.00 105.00 86.79 1.93
ZLV26 SELL 72.75C
ZLV26 BUY 73.00C
16 MAIN1 Bear Call Credit 75.00 225.00 225.00 125.82 1.68
ZLV26 SELL 71.75C
ZLV26 BUY 72.25C
17 MAIN1 Bear Call Credit 111.00 189.00 189.00 179.19 1.61
ZLV26 SELL 73.50C
ZLV26 BUY 74.00C
18 MAIN1 Bear Put Debit 51.00 549.00 -51.00 78.88 1.55
ZLV26 BUY 71.00P
ZLV26 SELL 70.00P
19 MAIN1 Bear Put Debit 66.00 384.00 54.00 101.94 1.54
ZLV26 BUY 71.50P
ZLV26 SELL 70.75P
20 MAIN1 Bull Call Debit 318.00 732.00 732.00 450.77 1.42
ZLV26 BUY 69.50C
ZLV26 SELL 71.25C
Notes:
ExpTgt = estimated profit at target using expiration intrinsic value.
ModTgt = estimated profit at target before expiration using Black-76 and Barchart IV.
Calendars are model-estimated and should be treated with extra caution.
No bid/ask data is present in the Barchart downloaded files.
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Overall Recommendation
Factors Weighted Points
Inter-Market Analysis + 1 Parabolic Chart - 1 Nirvana Chart + 1 News - 1 Point & Figure + 1 Cyclicals + 1 Seasonals - 1 Internal System 1 - 1 Internal System 2 + 1 Historic Range + 1 Commitment of Traders + 1 Range/Volatility + 1 Price Level Table + 1 Other Factors + 1 Total + 6
Here's a one-minute chart for December Soybean Oil for a previous day ( 8/31 ).
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Archive List
06-21-2026: July Natural Gas (NGN26): Global Stocks Offset Production Decreases
01-12-2026: March Class III Milk (DLH26): Cheddar Cheese Prices, Seasonals, Cow Production, Falling Exports
01-12-2026: March Silver (SIH26): Administration Clashing with Fed Independence Supportive for Uncertainties
12-28-2025: March Gold (GCH26): Runaway Inflation & Weakenng Dollar Support Gold
11-20-2025: March Cocoa (CCH26): Cheaper for Grocers to Give It Away
11-17-2025: Selection of Commodities To Be Reviewed
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