Introduction
News Internal Progrms
Watch point: A reduction in tightening expectations for the Fed will act as the greatest risk to the dollar maintain its move above the 100 level.
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX (ICE: DX) - OUTLOOK AND COMMENTARY
Week ending Friday, October 2, 2026
WHERE THE DOLLAR STANDS NOW
The U.S. Dollar Index slipped 0.25% on Friday to about 101.83 after a weak
September jobs report. Even so, the dollar finished the week close to 1%
higher, because other major currencies, especially the euro, were weaker
still.
That leaves the index well above the 100 level it broke through in
mid-September. For perspective: the index peaked above 109 in January 2025,
fell into the mid-96 area by September 2025, closed 2025 at 97.96, and made
a 2026 low of 98.55 on August 22. Since that August low the dollar has
gained more than 3 points.
WHAT DROVE THE RALLY
1. The Federal Reserve turned to rate hikes.
On September 16 the Fed raised its target rate by one-quarter point, to
3.75%-4.00%, its first increase since July 2023. The vote was unanimous,
12-0, and 16 of 18 Fed officials projected at least one more hike before
year-end. Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh has said the Fed is committed to bringing
inflation down. Higher U.S. rates attract foreign money into dollars, and
the dollar index jumped more than 1% in the week of that decision.
2. The chart broke out.
On September 17 the index pushed through 100.00 and moved above both its
50-day and 200-day moving averages, which were bunched together just under
99.70. A move through a level the market had failed at several times this
year is a significant technical event.
3. The euro has its own problems.
The euro makes up about 57.6% of the Dollar Index, so the index is really
mostly a euro-versus-dollar measure. France's record borrowing needs,
selling in French government bonds, and a widening gap between French and
German bond yields have revived worries about fiscal and political risk in
Europe. Add a weak German political backdrop, high energy costs, and slow
European growth, and the euro has been the dollar's best friend.
4. The yen remains weak.
The yen (about 13.6% of the index) traded near 157 per dollar Friday. The
Bank of Japan has been slow and unconvincing about raising rates, which keeps
the yen soft. The one big risk to that trend is Japanese government
intervention to support its currency.
WHAT IS WORKING AGAINST THE DOLLAR
1. The jobs report was soft.
September payrolls rose only 29,000, and July and August were revised down a
combined 60,000. Unemployment rose to 4.2%, and hourly earnings were up only
3.0% from a year ago. The unemployment rate, participation, and hours were
fairly steady, so this is weak hiring, not a collapsing job market.
2. October rate-hike odds have collapsed.
After this week's softer jobs and inflation numbers, the market priced less
than a 20% chance of a Fed hike at the October 27-28 meeting, down from about
70% a week earlier. Rate expectations are the dollar's main fuel. If the Fed
skips October, some of the "hike premium" built into the dollar will leak
out. ADMIS analyst J.P. Steiner points to this as the biggest risk to the
dollar holding above 100.
3. Other central banks are also tightening.
Eurozone inflation jumped to 3.8% in September, Australia has raised rates
four times this year, and Tokyo inflation is speeding up. When other
countries raise rates too, the interest-rate advantage of the dollar narrows.
OTHER FACTORS TO WATCH
- Oil and the Middle East. The conflict involving Iran has pushed energy
prices around. Higher oil hurts Europe and Japan more than the U.S., which
tends to help the dollar. Peace progress would remove some of that support.
- U.S. economic strength. Consumer spending was strong in August (up 0.9%),
and second-quarter GDP was revised up to 2.2%. A solid economy gives the
Fed room to keep rates high.
- Next inflation reports. CPI and PCE readings in October will likely decide
whether the Fed hikes again in October, waits until December, or stops.
- Commitments of Traders. Check the weekly CFTC report for the Dollar Index
and euro futures. A large speculative long position in the dollar after a
3-point rally would make the market more vulnerable to a pullback.
KEY PRICE LEVELS (my estimates)
Resistance: 102.50, then 103.00
Current: about 101.83
Support: 101.00, then 100.00 (old breakout level), then 99.70
(where the 50- and 200-day averages were bunched)
OPINION ON PROBABLE DIRECTION
Short term (next 2-4 weeks): Sideways to modestly lower. The soft jobs
report and the drop in October hike odds take away the dollar's most
important near-term support. A pullback toward 101.00, or even a retest of
the 100.00 breakout level, would be normal and would not damage the uptrend.
The October 27-28 Fed meeting is the main event.
Intermediate term (through year-end): Moderately bullish, as long as the
index holds above 100.00 on a closing basis. The Fed is still in a
tightening cycle, U.S. growth is better than Europe's, and the euro and yen
both have problems of their own. My expected range for the rest of 2026 is
roughly 100.00 to 103.00, with an upward lean.
What would change view:
- A weekly close below 99.70 would mean the September breakout failed, and
would turn neutral to bearish.
- A clear Fed signal that the hiking is finished, or a sharp rebound in the
euro on a French or German political fix, would also weaken the dollar.
- A hot inflation report that revives October hike odds would push the
index toward 103.
TRADING THOUGHTS FOR POSITION TRADERS
For those who agree with a bullish intermediate view, the better approach is
patience: let the market pull back toward the 100.50-101.00 area and buy
with limit orders, rather than chasing at current levels. Protect a long
position below 99.70.
With option premiums affected by the coming Fed meeting, a bull call
vertical spread in a December or March option month limits risk to the
premium paid and is less sensitive to a temporary dip.
Remember that a stronger dollar is generally a headwind for gold, silver,
grains, cotton, and other dollar-priced commodities, since it makes them more
expensive for foreign buyers. Dollar direction is worth watching even if you
never trade the index itself.
We fed U.S. Dollar Index, British Pound, and Australian Dollar into a neural network to get the following result:
December U.S.Dolar Index:
10-05-2026: December U.S. Dollar Index: Will a Trump-Era Federal Reserve Favor Politics or Economics?
(Click on links below. Whole page needs to load before links work.)
Intermarket
Parabolic
Nirvana
Point & Figure
Cyclic/Seasonal
Alternate Pgrm
Margin
Historic Range
Introduction
US DOLLAR: The USD index fell 0.25% to 101.83 following today’s payroll data. Softer-than-expected labor and inflation data this week has led the market to significantly reduce expectations of near-term tightening odds from the Fed. Markets are now pricing less than a 20% chance of a hike this month after ending last week at 70% odds. Despite the reduction in near-term tightening expectations the dollar is set to end the week nearly 1% higher as underperformance in other currencies offered support.
Intermarket Analysis
Parabolic Chart
Getting close to the stop and reverse point so we take this as an early sell signal.
December U.S. Dollar Index:
Nirvana Chart
We are headed toward a cyclical low and are in a seasonal high period.
Our alternate internal program is "Commodit". It is long from last January.
The point value is $1,000. Initial margin on a single contract is $2,186. Use of option spreads is advised.
Scale trade sellers are entering the market for the long term in this price range.
In the chart below, the yellow line is the futures price, read on the right axis. All other colors are read on the left axis. Blue is small speculators. Red is large speculators. Green is commercials. Large speculators with the best track record are getting increasingly-short.
Interpretation of a Different Site Below (Their trader categories vary from ours with regard to the CTFC's offering of "Financial Report" with different trader categories.)
Our Interpretation:
Looking at our Commitment of Traders chart, we would conclude U.S. Dollar Index futures prices are showing posibility of another reversal to head lower.
The average volatility shown below suggests that a change in major trend to up has been hit at a volatility low point.
ALTERNATE APPROACH (Includes Calendar Spreads)
Spread: DXH27 / DXZ26
Long: 1 U.S. Dollar Index (Mar '27)
Short: 1 U.S. Dollar Index (Dec '26)
Latest profit: $ -28.01
Change over available last 50 records: $ -0.01
Place 13 December U.S. Dollar Index contracts on a Buy Watch with stoploss @ -1.5% below the get-in point. (Recent price is represented as 101.73)
Soybean oil recently began a downward slide.
News Analysis
Point & Figure Chart
The above chart is giving a conventional buy signal.
Cyclical and Seasonal Factors
Internal Programs
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Commodity: DXZ26 U.S. Dollar Index
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Rank System Profit% Trades Wins Losses Settings
---- ------------ --------- ------ ---- ------ ------------------------------------------------------------
1 TRADER 34.34 321 220 101 MA=6 Mode=R
2 COMMODIT 17.55 19 9 10 RT=R MA=5/30 LL=1.82 Confirm=2.50 Score=1.47
3 STOCHAST 12.71 0 0 0 Days=20 Mode=0
4 TRIDENT 9.53 0 -22 0 X1=0 X2=0 Mode=1 Wins=-22
Trade Detail:
TRADER 011415 S 92.38 020415 B 94.20 020915 S 94.62 021615 B 94.32 022015 S 94.38 032415 B 98.13
040115 S 99.16 040615 B 97.65 041315 S 100.45 041715 B 98.39 052115 S 96.01 060415 B 96.18
062415 S 95.04 072415 B 96.97 073115 S 97.06 081115 B 96.96 083115 S 95.48 091815 B 95.71
092315 S 96.92 100715 B 96.29 102615 S 97.67 120415 B 99.05 121815 S 97.69 122315 B 97.33
010616 S 98.23 010816 B 97.56 011316 S 97.94 020516 B 96.02 021916 S 95.57 030816 B 96.17
031516 S 97.08 031816 B 95.53 032816 S 96.35 040116 B 95.03 041516 S 95.09 042016 B 94.88
042516 S 95.21 050316 B 93.34 051116 S 94.20 060716 B 94.24 062816 S 95.94 080116 B 95.28
080916 S 95.74 081116 B 95.45 082916 S 95.15 090716 B 94.56 091916 S 97.01 092716 B 96.56
093016 S 96.63 110416 B 98.34 111516 S 101.50 120616 B 101.78 121216 S 102.30 010617 B 101.85
013017 S 100.06 020117 B 99.25 021517 S 100.81 031417 B 101.00 033117 S 99.65 041917 B 99.07
051117 S 98.93 051817 B 97.20 061217 S 96.55 062617 B 96.50 080917 S 92.81 081417 B 92.69
081617 S 92.82 082417 B 92.58 091517 S 91.29 101217 B 92.53 101817 S 92.86 111317 B 94.02
120817 S 93.51 122117 B 92.86 011018 S 92.06 011518 B 90.73 020818 S 90.11 021618 B 89.01
022218 S 89.65 030518 B 90.04 031918 S 90.06 032718 B 89.71 040218 S 90.43 041118 B 89.98
042418 S 91.26 051418 B 93.19 051718 S 94.10 060818 B 94.26 061318 S 94.43 061918 B 94.06
071318 S 93.83 072318 B 93.77 080318 S 94.29 082318 B 94.91 090518 S 94.45 091818 B 93.75
100418 S 94.94 101218 B 94.43 101918 S 94.97 110218 B 95.87 111318 S 96.67 122118 B 96.18
011719 S 95.44 012919 B 95.24 020819 S 96.14 022119 B 96.19 030619 S 96.53 031819 B 95.52
040119 S 96.34 041619 B 96.19 042219 S 96.49 050119 B 96.95 052019 S 97.30 060519 B 96.79
061719 S 96.92 062519 B 95.52 070219 S 96.14 071519 B 96.42 071719 S 96.72 080619 B 97.29
081619 S 97.88 082619 B 97.86 090219 S 98.73 091019 B 98.18 092719 S 98.66 100719 B 98.57
100919 S 98.72 101419 B 98.07 102819 S 97.43 110419 B 97.27 110619 S 97.67 111919 B 97.65
112619 S 98.07 120419 B 97.51 121619 S 98.02 010220 B 97.97 011020 S 98.52 020320 B 99.07
021020 S 100.15 022620 B 100.38 032020 S 104.28 033020 B 100.05 040620 S 101.53 040820 B 100.94
041720 S 100.61 050120 B 99.87 050720 S 100.68 052120 B 100.18 063020 S 97.41 070220 B 97.36
081220 S 93.47 081920 B 92.94 082520 S 93.08 090120 B 92.40 090420 S 92.78 091620 B 92.90
092420 S 94.06 100220 B 93.58 101620 S 93.35 102220 B 92.63 103020 S 93.71 110920 B 92.38
122320 S 89.93 123120 B 89.48 011221 S 89.65 012221 B 89.80 012821 S 90.01 021121 B 90.00
021821 S 90.19 022321 B 89.75 030221 S 90.38 040721 B 92.38 050321 S 90.84 051121 B 90.03
053121 S 89.90 060221 B 89.81 060421 S 90.04 060821 B 89.99 061421 S 90.31 071221 B 92.08
071421 S 92.23 073021 B 92.01 081021 S 92.88 081621 B 92.44 082021 S 93.33 082621 B 92.90
092121 S 92.70 101821 B 93.44 102721 S 93.29 112921 B 95.83 121021 S 96.68 122421 B 96.59
010522 S 96.79 011022 B 96.59 011922 S 96.10 020422 B 96.08 021522 S 96.60 021722 B 96.41
022222 S 96.62 031822 B 98.76 032522 S 99.36 033122 B 98.90 040722 S 100.30 051822 B 104.40
060722 S 102.86 062322 B 104.01 063022 S 104.29 072022 B 106.77 080822 S 106.14 081222 B 105.33
081722 S 106.31 100522 B 111.48 101122 S 113.59 102722 B 110.92 110222 S 111.69 110922 B 110.92
112222 S 107.58 112522 B 106.38 010423 S 103.30 011023 B 102.25 013123 S 101.19 020223 B 100.85
020723 S 102.57 031423 B 102.42 041123 S 101.09 041423 B 100.45 041823 S 100.65 042723 B 100.46
050223 S 100.93 050823 B 100.36 051023 S 100.48 060223 B 103.16 060723 S 103.26 060923 B 102.74
062623 S 102.04 071423 B 99.31 072523 S 100.80 083123 B 103.30 090623 S 104.53 091823 B 103.59
092823 S 104.66 100923 B 104.54 101623 S 104.76 102423 B 104.81 102723 S 105.11 110623 B 103.78
120123 S 101.93 121523 B 102.41 010424 S 102.36 022224 B 104.10 032524 S 104.12 040524 B 104.26
041524 S 106.19 042424 B 105.89 052424 S 104.83 060524 B 104.41 061124 S 105.39 061824 B 104.31
062424 S 104.56 070424 B 104.51 072224 S 103.47 080624 B 102.20 090224 S 101.06 090624 B 100.58
100724 S 102.25 120224 B 106.37 121324 S 106.60 010725 B 108.29 011425 S 109.02 012225 B 107.87
020425 S 107.73 020625 B 107.46 021125 S 107.74 021725 B 106.49 030325 S 106.58 030625 B 103.94
032525 S 102.68 033125 B 102.73 042425 S 98.01 042925 B 97.86 050225 S 98.69 050725 B 98.28
050925 S 99.01 052225 B 98.69 061925 S 97.85 062725 B 96.42 070925 S 96.59 072425 B 96.51
073125 S 99.13 080725 B 97.62 082025 S 97.47 090125 B 97.08 090325 S 97.47 090925 B 97.14
092225 S 96.20 100225 B 96.76 101025 S 97.96 101725 B 97.42 102325 S 97.95 111225 B 98.60
112025 S 99.31 112725 B 98.75 010526 S 98.26 012126 B 98.84 020326 S 97.58 021126 B 97.00
022026 S 98.01 032026 B 99.12 033126 S 99.42 041026 B 98.10 042426 S 98.03 050426 B 97.92
051826 S 98.77 070626 B 100.39 072226 S 100.73 073126 B 99.56 081326 S 99.63 081826 B 99.33
083126 S 99.16 090426 B 98.92 091726 S 99.99 101626 B 101.66
COMMODIT 030915 S 97.81 031115 B 99.64 041015 S 99.90 050115 B 95.63 052715 S 98.00 082515 B 93.14
102615 S 97.95 110615 B 99.78 121415 B 96.73 020916 S 94.90 091916 S 97.26 101216 B 99.09
031020 B 96.82 031920 S 101.90 031920 B 103.73 070722 S 106.69 071422 B 108.52 082322 S 108.74
090722 B 110.57 092622 S 113.45 102722 B 109.91 111022 S 108.08 071323 B 99.91 041125 S 98.08
073125 S 98.97 012826 B 96.09 101626 S 101.66
STOCHAST 021315 S 94.36 022315 B 94.45 042715 S 97.81 052715 B 98.00 061615 S 94.74 070715 B 96.12
081715 S 96.19 081915 B 96.65 082015 S 96.09 090315 B 95.63 101415 S 95.50 102615 B 97.95
121115 S 97.01 011316 B 98.07 020516 S 95.51 030116 B 97.17 032216 S 95.85 032316 B 96.05
033116 S 95.26 051216 B 94.23 061016 S 93.79 063016 B 95.31 080316 S 94.68 080916 B 95.92
081016 S 95.68 090516 B 95.49 011217 S 101.36 021617 B 100.58 031717 S 99.49 041017 B 100.55
042517 S 98.39 062317 B 96.64 062917 S 95.15 082217 B 92.41 082917 S 91.57 090117 B 91.98
090517 S 91.99 092717 B 92.52 112317 S 92.83 121517 B 93.14 122917 S 92.35 021518 B 88.88
021618 S 88.49 022018 B 89.16 032818 S 89.70 032918 B 90.45 061818 S 93.82 071918 B 94.15
083018 S 93.78 100418 B 95.24 123118 S 95.69 012419 B 95.47 031919 S 95.51 040319 B 96.42
060719 S 96.50 071019 B 97.03 092019 S 97.84 092319 B 98.05 101619 S 97.92 111319 B 98.09
120619 S 97.28 121919 B 98.42 030420 S 98.59 031920 B 101.90 041620 S 100.44 042920 B 100.71
050420 S 99.87 050620 B 100.61 052720 S 99.78 090420 B 92.88 090720 S 92.86 091120 B 93.03
101320 S 92.74 101620 B 93.48 102020 S 93.08 110220 B 93.76 110920 S 91.90 011821 B 90.36
021621 S 89.90 021821 B 90.46 022221 S 89.93 030521 B 91.23 041521 S 91.54 061621 B 90.31
080221 S 91.97 081121 B 92.89 090321 S 92.06 092321 B 92.99 102921 S 92.84 110121 B 93.62
011222 S 96.19 012622 B 96.55 021822 S 96.44 022122 B 96.72 052622 S 102.64 061522 B 104.95
080222 S 105.07 081922 B 107.24 102722 S 109.91 110222 B 111.83 110322 S 112.49 020923 B 102.66
032023 S 102.62 042723 B 100.37 061923 S 101.58 070623 B 102.73 071123 S 101.32 080123 B 101.37
110723 S 103.86 111023 B 104.49 111423 S 104.27 121823 B 102.42 122723 S 101.41 010324 B 102.07
010424 S 102.39 010924 B 102.16 030724 S 103.48 032624 B 104.11 051624 S 104.29 061824 B 104.34
070924 S 104.10 100424 B 101.64 012425 S 107.86 021125 B 108.15 021325 S 107.78 051525 B 99.71
052625 S 97.80 071725 B 97.44 081825 S 97.07 082025 B 97.58 082525 S 96.96 100125 B 96.76
120425 S 98.10 010826 B 98.78 012726 S 97.17 020926 B 97.89 041326 S 98.58 051826 B 98.88
080326 S 99.35 090726 B 98.89 101626 S 101.66
TRIDENT 021315 B 94.36 021615 S 94.02 021815 B 94.23 021915 S 94.07 022015 B 94.51 022315 S 94.65
022615 B 94.49 022715 S 95.37 031915 B 98.54 042915 S 95.78 043015 B 95.99 050515 S 95.77
050615 B 95.99 050715 B 95.06 051215 S 95.06 051315 B 95.29 051415 S 94.42 051515 B 94.19
051815 S 94.00 051915 B 94.82 052215 B 96.44 052715 S 98.52 060115 B 98.26 060215 S 98.22
080715 B 98.00 081015 B 97.47 081115 S 96.86 081215 B 96.86 081315 S 95.99 081415 B 95.98
081815 S 96.64 082515 B 93.14 080317 S 92.16 080417 B 92.39 080817 S 93.14 081117 B 92.76
081417 S 92.36 081517 B 92.78 081617 S 93.12 081817 B 93.03 082117 S 92.69 082317 B 92.82
082417 S 92.47 082517 B 92.61 082917 B 91.76 083117 S 92.52 090417 B 92.05 090517 S 91.56
091817 B 91.37 091917 S 91.37 092017 B 91.37 092617 S 92.52 100217 B 92.92 100317 S 92.92
100417 B 93.05 100517 B 93.00 100617 S 93.69 101217 B 92.60 101317 S 92.26 101617 B 92.60
101817 S 93.23 102017 B 92.81 102617 S 93.61 110117 B 94.38 110217 S 94.30 110317 B 94.38
110717 S 94.26 110817 B 94.40 110917 B 94.48 111017 S 94.00 111317 B 93.99 111417 S 94.06
112017 B 93.36 112117 S 93.66 112417 B 92.80 112717 S 92.30 112817 B 92.43 112917 S 92.81
120417 B 92.67 120617 S 93.22 121217 B 93.55 121317 S 93.55 121517 B 93.44 121817 B 93.49
122017 S 92.84 122117 B 93.07 122217 S 92.91 122617 B 92.90 122717 S 92.70 010818 B 91.76
010918 S 92.06 011118 B 92.06 011218 S 91.50 011518 B 90.71 011618 S 90.25 011718 B 90.23
011818 S 90.23 011918 B 90.31 012218 B 90.26 012318 S 89.95 012918 B 88.94 101626 S 101.66
Ticker,Rank,System,ProfitPct,Trades,Wins,Losses,Settings
DXZ26,1,TRADER,34.34,321,220,101,"MA=6 Mode=R"
DXZ26,2,COMMODIT,17.55,19,9,10,"RT=R MA=5/30 LL=1.82 Confirm=2.50 Score=1.47"
DXZ26,3,STOCHAST,12.71,0,0,0,"Days=20 Mode=0"
DXZ26,4,TRIDENT,9.53,0,-22,0,"X1=0 X2=0 Mode=1 Wins=-22"
Our best-performing internal program is "Trader". It is working on a sell signal.
Alternate Program
Margin
Historic Range
Commitment of Traders
We do not use their Financial Report and place more stock in legacy category definitions but include here for information, only.
Commercials (red) are the "smart money" who actually use the products and best informed. They are net long.
A reveral in futures price occurred in Period 15 when large speculators peaked and commercials got too low. They may head back that way, so right now looks vulnerable.
Large speculators (green) include financial institutions and funds and are often wrong because they follow trends and are caught on reversals.
Small speculators (blue) have less influence and are generally used for confirmations.
Volatility / Probable Range
Other Factors (Barchart Opinion)
Option Spread Candidates
Projected Futures Target: 103.00
OPSCAN RANKED CANDIDATES
WARNING: Prices are based on Barchart downloaded values, not bid/ask.
Confirm live bid/ask before placing any order.
MAIN1=DXZ26 MAIN2=DXH27 ALT1=
MaxRisk=500.00
Rank Market Kind Risk MaxPft ExpPft DatePft Score
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 MAIN1 Bull Call Debit 135.00 365.00 365.00 250.02 1.85
DXZ26 BUY 102.50C
DXZ26 SELL 103.00C
2 MAIN1 Bull Put Credit 135.00 365.00 365.00 247.85 1.84
DXZ26 SELL 103.00P
DXZ26 BUY 102.50P
3 MAIN1 Bull Call Debit 320.00 680.00 680.00 559.88 1.75
DXZ26 BUY 102.00C
DXZ26 SELL 103.00C
4 MAIN1 Bull Put Credit 325.00 675.00 675.00 552.23 1.70
DXZ26 SELL 103.00P
DXZ26 BUY 102.00P
5 MAIN1 Bull Call Debit 185.00 315.00 315.00 309.86 1.67
DXZ26 BUY 102.00C
DXZ26 SELL 102.50C
6 MAIN1 Bull Put Credit 190.00 310.00 310.00 304.38 1.60
DXZ26 SELL 102.50P
DXZ26 BUY 102.00P
7 MAIN1 Bull Call Debit 410.00 1090.00 590.00 582.27 1.42
DXZ26 BUY 102.00C
DXZ26 SELL 103.50C
8 MAIN1 Call Calendar 400.00 N/A 554.28 554.28 1.39
DXH27 BUY 103.50C
DXZ26 SELL 103.50C
9 MAIN1 Call Calendar 445.00 N/A 610.40 610.40 1.37
DXH27 BUY 103.00C
DXZ26 SELL 103.00C
10 MAIN1 Bull Put Credit 420.00 1080.00 580.00 571.66 1.36
DXZ26 SELL 103.50P
DXZ26 BUY 102.00P
11 MAIN1 Bull Call Debit 435.00 565.00 565.00 559.78 1.29
DXZ26 BUY 101.50C
DXZ26 SELL 102.50C
12 MAIN1 Bull Put Credit 440.00 560.00 560.00 554.36 1.26
DXZ26 SELL 102.50P
DXZ26 BUY 101.50P
13 MAIN1 Bull Call Debit 225.00 775.00 275.00 272.41 1.21
DXZ26 BUY 102.50C
DXZ26 SELL 103.50C
14 MAIN1 Call Calendar 355.00 N/A 428.35 428.35 1.21
DXH27 BUY 104.00C
DXZ26 SELL 104.00C
15 MAIN1 Bull Put Credit 230.00 770.00 270.00 267.28 1.16
DXZ26 SELL 103.50P
DXZ26 BUY 102.50P
16 MAIN1 Bull Call Debit 475.00 1525.00 525.00 524.76 1.10
DXZ26 BUY 102.00C
DXZ26 SELL 104.00C
17 MAIN1 Bull Put Credit 485.00 1515.00 515.00 514.99 1.06
DXZ26 SELL 104.00P
DXZ26 BUY 102.00P
18 MAIN1 Call Calendar 315.00 N/A 321.99 321.99 1.02
DXH27 BUY 104.50C
DXZ26 SELL 104.50C
19 MAIN1 Bull Put Credit 250.00 250.00 250.00 249.98 1.00
DXZ26 SELL 102.00P
DXZ26 BUY 101.50P
20 MAIN1 Bull Call Debit 250.00 250.00 250.00 249.92 1.00
DXZ26 BUY 101.50C
DXZ26 SELL 102.00C
Notes:
ExpTgt = estimated profit at target using expiration intrinsic value.
ModTgt = estimated profit at target before expiration using Black-76 and Barchart IV.
Calendars are model-estimated and should be treated with extra caution.
No bid/ask data is present in the Barchart downloaded files.
Overall Recommendation
Factors Weighted Points
Inter-Market Analysis + 1 Parabolic Chart - 1 Nirvana Chart + 1 News - 1 Point & Figure + 1 Cyclicals + 1 Seasonals - 1 Internal System 1 - 1 Internal System 2 + 1 Historic Range + 1 Commitment of Traders + 1 Range/Volatility + 1 Price Level Table + 1 Other Factors + 1 Total + 6
Here's a one-minute chart for December U.S. Dollar Index for a previous day ( 10/19 ).
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Trading in commodities involves substantial risk and past performance is no guarantee of future profits. Zenith does not sell advice nor does it manage discretionary accounts other than its own. Readers should be aware of the vested interest that all traders/brokers have in encouraging other traders to make the same transactions. No one should follow investment advice blindly. This web site should be used only as a "sounding board" for confirming one's own opinion. Any suggested order placements should be reviewed and reset to fit current market conditions by individual traders. Recommendations may include trades which have already been made on the same or a previous day. Commodity recommendations here are not tracked.
