08-21-2017: CPI Aerostructures, Inc. (CVU): American Aerospace Craftmanship in Increasingly Globalized World

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Recommendation

CPI Aerostructures, Inc.

CPI Aerostructures, Inc. (CVU_ is a New York state-based manufacturer of wing assemblies and aircraft components for companies like Boeing, Lockheed, and Embraer. Most of its business is from the defense industry with some commercial business. It also has a small computer security services operation. Its stock is traded on the American Stock Exchange.

As we survey the "picked-over" late bull market trying to find good valuations, we descended from looking at stocks with an average trading volume of 300,000 shares per day to closer to 100,000 such as is the case with this company. This was in the hope of finding "over-looked" stocks. This company, however, has definitely not been overlooked. Although it has a healthy backlog, there appears to be some mis-management resulting in erratic earnings and historical cash flow problems. We say "mis-management" yet to compete the company is above average in generating revenue from employees and managing resources. Standard & Poor's and Market Grader both give the stock a low fundamentals rating. The Zenith Index is unacceptably low. Therefore, this stock is a short sale recommendation.

Institutions are net sellers, but Dimensional Fund Advisors is a significant holder among them, which is a positive factor.

The stock has been around for a while to enable establishing a track record. The channeling potential is very great signifying a good in-and-out trading stock, currently at the top of a recent trading range and looking weak.

Management's reported salaries and compensation look very suspiciously low.

Many technical indicators are down on this stock so for timing, we would suggest selling despite analyst optimism. We don't see this as a turnaround situation and the business is quite competitive. Large customers have capabilities of their own to produce the same products.

The company is designed to carry on the craft of American aircraft manufacturing in an increasingly globalized world, meaning foreign competition may be doing them in.



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Comparison

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Bond Issue

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Zenith Index

Under current market conditions, a Zenith Index Score of 1.20 or above is required for a positive rating on this factor. 1.21 -1.30 is considered acceptable, 1.30-1.40 is considered strong and
> 1.40 is considered exceptionally strong. Accounting statements in this section often contain mistakes, especially in earlier years' totals, but data is deemed sufficient for us to give a rating. More accurate financial statements follow in the next section.

CPI Aerostructures, Inc. (CVU)                            Exchange: NYSE M
91 Heartland Boulevard
Edgewood, NY 11717               Sector: Industrial Goods
United States                    Industry:Aerospace/Defense Products & Ser

CPI Aerostructures, Inc. engages in the contract production of
structural aircraft parts for fixed wing aircraft and helicopters in the
commercial and defense markets. It also offers aero systems, such as
reconnaissance pod structures and fuel panel systems, as well as
supplies parts for maintenance repair and overhaul (MRO), and kitting
contracts. In addition, the company operates as a subcontractor for
defense prime contractors and commercial contractors, as well as the
United States Department of Defense, primarily the Air Force. Further,
it offers engineering, program management, supply chain management, and
MRO services. The company was formerly known as Consortium of Precision
Industries, Inc. and changed its name to CPI Aerostructures, Inc. in
July 1992. CPI Aerostructures, Inc. was founded in 1980 and is based in
Edgewood, New York.

Last Trade:   8.25                           52-Week Range:  10.15 -   5.55
Employees: 259                               Avg.Volume:      63,629 Shares

Corporate Governance:
Pllar scores are Audit: N/A; Board: N/A; Shareholder Rights: N/A; Compensation:
N/A.
         (A lower number means less governance risk.)

EPS:  0.00    Dividend Amount: $ 0.00          Yield:  0.00%
             Ex-Dividend Date: N/A             Payout Ratio:   0.00

Key Statistics:

    Trailing P/E:   0.00              Forward P/E (est.):  10.31
                                           Target Price:  11.00

Qrtly Stock Price Growth (yoy):  26.53%               Beta:  -0.03
Qrtly S&P Index   Growth (yoy): -24.90%        Short Ratio:   4.24%
    Qrtly Revenue Growth (yoy):  11.33%         Shares Out:  8830000
   Qrtly Earnings Growth (yoy):   0.00%

          Book Value:   0.00                    Debt/Equity:  48.28%
    Price/Book Value:   0.00        Operating Profit Margin:  13.18%
         Price/Sales:   0.88                  Profit Margin:   7.02%
         Market Cap:      72,869,000       Return on Equity:   8.73%
    Enterprise Value:               0      Return on Assets:   5.92%

    Operating Cash Flow:         -6,601
         Free Cash Flow:     -4,000,000



Annual Income Statement:                          (All numbers in thousands)
  Period Ending                             12/31/2016  12/31/2015  12/31/2014

  Total Revenue                                 81,330     100,203      39,687
  Cost of Revenue                               77,011      83,601      69,412
  Gross Profit                                   4,319      16,602     -29,725

Operating Expenses:
  Research & Development                             0           0           0
  Selling, General & Administrative              8,614       7,636       7,308
  Non-Recurring Expenses                             0           0           0
  Other Operating Expenses                           0           0           0
  Total Operating Expenses                           0           0           0

Operating Income or Loss                        -4,295       8,966     -37,033

Income from Continuing Operations:
  Total Other Income/Expenses Net                  -23         -40         145
  Earnings Before Interest & Taxes              -4,318       8,925     -36,888
  Interest Expense                               1,357         918         794
  Income Before Taxes                           -5,675       8,007     -37,682
  Income Tax Expense                            -2,066       2,991     -12,473
  Minority Interest                                  0           0           0

Net Income from Continuing Op.s                 -3,609       5,016     -25,209

Non-recurring Events:
  Discontinued Operations                            0           0           0
  Extraordinary Items                                0           0           0
  Effect of Accounting Changes                       0           0           0
  Other Items                                        0           0           0
  Net Income                                    -3,609       5,016     -25,209
  Preferred Stock & Other Adjustments                0           0           0

Net Income Avail to Common Shares               -3,609       5,016     -25,209



Annual Cash Flow Statement:                   (All numbers in thousands)
  Period Ending                         12/31/2016    12/31/2015    12/31/2014

  Net Income                                -3,609         5,016       -25,209

Operating Activities:
  Depreciation                                 723           854           764
  Adjustments to Net Income                   -921         3,306        -3,332
  Changes in Accounts Recv'bls               1,735       -24,817        31,468
  Changes in Liabilities                    -3,516        17,937        -6,840
  Changes in Investories                         0             0             0
  Changes in other Oper'g Acts              -1,013          -237          -219

Total Cash Flow f Operations                -6,601         2,058        -3,368

Investing Activities:
  Capital Exenditures                         -136          -210          -603
  Investments                                    0             0             0
  Other Cash Flows fr Investing                  0             0             0

Total Cash Flows from Investing               -136          -210          -603

Financing Activities:
  Dividends Paid                                 0             0             0
  Sale of Purchase of Stock                      0            80           448
  Net Borrowings                             7,029        -2,464         2,776
  Other Cash Flows fr Financing                  0             0             0

Total Cash Flows from Financing              6,775        -2,351         3,309

  Effect of Exchange Rate Chg                    0             0             0

Change in Cash & Cash Equiv.                    38          -503          -661



Annual Balance Sheets:                              (All Numbers in Thousands)
  Period Ending                          12/31/2016    12/31/2015    12/31/2014
Current Assets:
  Cash & Cash Equivalents                     1,040         1,002         1,505
  Short Term Investments                          0             0             0
  Net Receivables                           108,093       110,288        93,659
  Inventory                                       0             0             0
  Other Current Assets                        2,155         1,065           828
  Total Current Assets                      111,288       112,356        95,992

  Long-Term Investments                           0             0             0
  Property, Plant & Equipt                    2,299         2,359         2,755
  Goodwill                                        0             0             0
  Intangible Assets                               0             0             0
  Accumulated Amortization                        0             0             0
  Other Assets                                  252           108           108
  Deferred LT Asset Charges                   3,953         1,890         4,549

Total Assets                                117,792       116,713       103,405

Current Liabilities:
  Accounts Payable                           15,535        19,802        10,190
  Current Portion LT Debt                    23,781        24,711        26,122
  Other Current Liabilities                   1,377           550           396
  Total Current Liabilities                  40,693        45,063         36,708

  Long Term Debt                             15,535        19,802        10,190
  Other Liabilities                          23,781        24,711        26,122
  Deferred LT Liab. Charges                   1,377           550           396
  Minority Interest                               0             0             0
  Negative Goodwill                               0             0             0

Total Liabilities                            50,186        46,180        38,592

Stockholder Equity:
  Misc. Options, Warrants                         0             0             0
  Redeemable Preferred Stock                      0             0             0
  Preferred Stock                                 0             0             0
  Common Stock                                    9             9             9
  Retained Earnings                          14,781        18,390        13,374
  Treasury Stock                                  0             0             0
  Capital Surplus                            52,825        52,137        51,441
  Other Stockhohlder Equity                      -9            -3           -10
  Total Stockholder Equity                   67,606        70,532        64,813

Net Tangible Assets                          67,606        70,532        64,813



CPI Aerostructures, Inc. (CVU)              [Indices near +3.0, near zero,
                                            or < zero bear special attention.]
P/E Ratio Tests:
P/E Ratio < 28?            0.0000          P/E Ratio > 5?             0.0000
P/E Ratio Vs Growth Rate:  0.0000          Forward P/E Ratio < 28?    2.7158
Price/Sales Ratio < 2.3?   2.6136          Inventory/Sales < 5%?      1.0000
Sales < $1 Billion?        3.0000          Operating Margin < 7.5%?   0.5690

Balance Sheet Tests:
Debt/Equity < 0.40?        0.8285          Long-Term Debt Service:    3.0000
LTD Being Reduced?        -3.0000          Short-Term Debt Service:  -3.0000
Current Ratio > 2?         1.3674          Working Capital >= 1.5?    0.5558
Leverage Ratio < 20%?      2.5119          Debt/Assets < 1?           3.0000
Quick Ratio > 1?           3.0000          Inventory Turnover > 1?    1.0000
Share Equity Increase:     2.0467          Market Cap.< 1.5 Billion?  3.0000
                                           Intangibles < 3% Assets?   3.0000
Income Tests:
Profit Margin < 7.5%?      0.9360          EPS Annual Growth > 10%?  -0.1390
Dividend Yield > 2.0%?     0.0000          EPS 3-yr Growth > 15?      1.0479
Enterprise Value/Revenue   0.8961          EPS Growth Consistent?     0.0000
Enterprise Value/EBITDA:  -3.0000          Collection < 45 days?      0.0928
EPS Qrtly Growth > 10%?    0.0000          Gross Pft/Cur. LTD > 1?    0.1816
                                           Borrowing Int. Rate < 6%?  0.3919
Stock Performance Tests:
Volatility > 25%?          1.8128          % Held by Insiders < 5%?   0.5285
Beta > 1.25?              -0.0240          % Held by Institut. < 50?  0.6720
50 Da MA > 200 Da MA?      0.4836          % Held by Institut. > 30?  2.4800
52-Wk Change vs. S&P 500:  2.3416          Short Ratio > 5?           0.8480
Price/Book Value < 3?      0.0000          Short % of Float > 20?     0.1465
Return on Assets > 17%?    0.3482          Average Volume > 100,000?  0.6363

Cash Flow Tests:
Oper. C.F. > Lever'd C.F:  0.0017          Positive Free Cash Flow?  -1.0000
Positive Oper. Cash Flow? -1.0000          Price to C.F.Ratio < 14?:  2.5960
                                           Cash Flow / Assets > 10%?  1.1471

CVU    CPI Aerostructures, Inc.            Overall Zenith Index:      0.8087


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Financial Statements

CPI AEROSTRUCTURES INC  (CVU)               INCOME STATEMENT

Fiscal year ends in December.                        2012-12         2013-12         2014-12         2015-12         2016-12             TTM           

Revenue                                           89,272,584      82,988,520      39,687,008     100,202,560      81,329,856      83,143,512
Cost of revenue                                   65,039,968      64,555,276      69,411,712      83,600,856      77,010,944      63,998,232
Gross profit                                      24,232,612      18,433,248     -29,724,700      16,601,703       4,318,918      19,145,284


Operating expenses
Sales, General and administrative                  7,322,630       6,704,524       7,308,220       7,636,148       8,614,190       8,191,096
Total operating expenses                           7,322,630       6,704,524       7,308,220       7,636,148       8,614,190       8,191,096

Operating income                                  16,909,984      11,728,723     -37,032,920       8,965,555      -4,295,272      10,954,187
Interest Expense                                     416,373         653,786         794,428         958,562       1,379,304       1,636,175
Other income (expense)                                31,520          78,957         145,072               0               0               0
Income before taxes                               16,525,130      11,153,894     -37,682,276       8,006,993      -5,674,576       9,318,012
Provision for income taxes                         5,514,000       3,417,000     -12,473,000       2,991,000      -2,066,000       3,482,000
Net income from continuing operations             11,011,130       7,736,894     -25,209,276       5,015,993      -3,608,576       5,836,012
Net income                                        11,011,130       7,736,894     -25,209,276       5,015,993      -3,608,576       5,836,012
Net income available to common shareholders       11,011,130       7,736,894     -25,209,276       5,015,993      -3,608,576       5,836,012

Earnings per share
Basic                                                   1.43            0.92           -2.98            0.59           -0.42            0.67 
Diluted                                                 1.40            0.91           -2.98            0.58           -0.42            0.67 

Weighted average shares outstanding
Basic                                              7,721,304       8,389,048       8,465,937       8,552,817       8,655,848       8,757,572
Diluted                                            7,865,090       8,470,578       8,465,937       8,579,986       8,655,848       8,774,255

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


CPI AEROSTRUCTURES INC  (CVU)               BALANCE SHEET

Fiscal year ends in December.                        2012-12         2013-12         2014-12         2015-12         2016-12             

Assets

Current assets

Cash

Total cash                                         2,709,803       2,166,103       1,504,907       1,002,023       1,039,586

Receivables                                        6,774,346       4,392,254       6,466,814       7,665,837       8,514,613
Deferred income taxes                                      0               0       1,708,000               0               0
Prepaid expenses                                     426,063         609,268         828,275       1,065,473       2,155,481
Other current assets                             109,443,840     113,014,136      87,192,464     102,622,384      99,578,528
Total current assets                             119,354,056     120,181,760      97,700,456     112,355,720     111,288,208

Non-current assets

Property, plant and equipment
Gross property, plant and equipment                5,650,752       6,297,461       6,965,854       7,423,467       8,025,261
Accumulated Depreciation                          -2,743,276      -3,447,708      -4,210,668      -5,064,731      -5,726,651
Net property, plant and equipment                  2,907,476       2,849,753       2,755,186       2,358,736       2,298,610

Deferred income taxes                              1,001,000       1,133,000       3,591,000       1,890,000       3,952,598
Other long-term assets                             1,620,984         108,080         108,080         108,080         252,481
Total non-current assets                           5,529,460       4,090,833       6,454,266       4,356,816       6,503,689

Total assets                                     124,883,520     124,272,592     104,154,720     116,712,536     117,791,896 

Liabilities and stockholders' equity

Liabilities

Current liabilities
Short-term debt                                   24,550,564      22,370,348      26,121,712      24,711,492      23,780,608
Accounts payable                                  13,286,558       7,614,755       8,928,456      18,379,468      14,027,457
Deferred income taxes                                102,000          89,000         128,000               0               0
Taxes payable                                        106,000         736,536           6,067         189,000           6,000
Accrued liabilities                                  943,356         654,868       1,457,929       1,607,405       1,386,147
Other current liabilities                            656,853         276,170         193,650         175,438       1,492,508
Total current liabilities                         39,645,332      31,741,678      36,835,816      45,062,804      40,692,720

Non-current liabilities
Long-term debt                                     3,209,873       2,198,187       1,289,843         483,961       8,860,724
Deferred taxes liabilities                           867,000         788,000         622,000               0               0
Other long-term liabilities                          567,113         593,210         593,909         633,663         632,744
Total non-current liabilities                      4,643,986       3,579,397       2,505,752       1,117,624       9,493,468

Total liabilities                                 44,289,316      35,321,076      39,341,568      46,180,428      50,186,188 

Stockholders' equity

Common stock                                           8,371           8,410           8,501           8,584           8,738
Additional paid-in capital                        49,780,672      50,381,348      51,440,768      52,137,384      52,824,952
Retained earnings                                 30,845,982      38,582,876      13,373,601      18,389,594      14,781,018
Accumulated other comprehensive income               -40,827         -21,115          -9,716          -3,453          -9,000
Total stockholders' equity                        80,594,200      88,951,520      64,813,156      70,532,112      67,605,704
Total liabilities and stockholders' equity       124,883,520     124,272,592     104,154,720     116,712,536     117,791,896

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


CPI AEROSTRUCTURES INC  (CVU)               Statement of CASH FLOW

Fiscal year ends in December. USD.                   2012-12         2013-12         2014-12         2015-12         2016-12             TTM           

Cash Flows From Operating Activities
Net income                                        11,011,130       7,736,894     -25,209,276       5,015,993      -3,608,576       5,836,012
Depreciation & amortization                          623,795         704,435         763,736         854,063         661,921         575,642
Amortization of debt discount/premium and is               0               0               0               0          61,320               0
Deferred income taxes                                 11,000        -107,000      -3,790,000       2,659,000      -2,077,299       3,442,233
Stock based compensation                             420,418         421,639         525,758         524,274         687,720         969,675
Accounts receivable                               -3,951,680       2,382,092      -2,074,560      -1,249,023      -1,309,290       3,306,044
Prepaid expenses                                     240,263        -183,205        -219,007        -237,199      -1,013,008      -1,059,485
Accrued liabilities                                        0               0         396,182         153,541         827,448               0
Income taxes payable                              -2,383,000         582,536        -730,469         220,822        -183,000          -9,327
Other working capital                            -27,777,068      -8,297,099      27,037,736      -6,006,079      -1,116,787     -13,628,135
Other non-cash items                                -272,581          27,621         -67,860         122,440         468,749         179,344
Net cash provided by operating activities        -22,077,722       3,267,913      -3,367,760       2,057,832      -6,600,802        -387,997

Cash Flows From Investing Activities
Investments in property, plant, and equipmen        -825,110        -637,370        -602,924        -209,718        -136,320        -190,524
Other investing activities                                 0               0               0               0               0          42,480
Net cash used for investing activities              -825,110        -637,370        -602,924        -209,718        -136,320        -148,044

Cash Flows From Financing Activities
Debt issued                                       15,850,000      11,000,000       8,500,000       8,200,000      39,138,684       3,900,000
Debt repayment                                    -6,042,774     -14,201,243      -5,724,263     -10,663,998     -32,110,144      -2,962,469
Common stock issued                               13,323,694               0               0               0               0               0
Excess tax benefit from stock based compe            313,000          27,000          86,000          33,000               0               0
Other financing activities                         1,290,515               0         447,751          80,000        -253,855         -99,999
Net cash provided by (used for) financing         24,734,436      -3,174,243       3,309,488      -2,350,998       6,774,685         837,532

Net change in cash                                 1,831,603        -543,700        -661,196        -502,884          37,563         301,491
Cash at beginning of period                          878,200       2,709,803       2,166,103       1,504,907       1,002,023         813,806
Cash at end of period                              2,709,803       2,166,103       1,504,907       1,002,023       1,039,586       1,115,297

Free Cash Flow
Operating cash flow                              -22,077,722       3,267,913      -3,367,760       2,057,832      -6,600,802        -387,997
Capital expenditure                                 -825,110        -637,370        -602,924        -209,718        -136,320        -190,524
Free cash flow                                   -22,902,832       2,630,543      -3,970,684       1,848,114      -6,737,122        -578,521
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________





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Average to Current P/E Ratios
              (CVU)     CPI Aerostructures Inc.

                               2012    2013    2014    2015    2016

          Annual Earnings:     1.40    0.91   -2.98    0.58   -0.42
Average Price During Year:    12.70   10.61   12.47   10.54    7.31

                P/E Ratio:     9.07   11.66    4.19   18.17   17.41

 Average 5-Year P/E Ratio  =  12.10
             Current Price =  8.25

Previous 5 Quarter Earnings:   0.21    0.19    0.24    0.14    0.09

           Current Annualized (Last Four Quarters) Earnings =  .47
                                                           ________
                                 Average PE / Current PE =     0.69
                                                           --------

                                      ...a number above 1.00 is good
                                                1.00 or below is bad


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Financial Ratios

. . . . . . . . . . . . 1 = Highest , 10 = Lowest



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Market Grader

900
901 902 903 904 905 906 907 908 909 910



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Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Intrinsic Value by Discounted Cash Flow Method:

Intrinsic Value



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Book Value

Tangible Book Value:

Book Value



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Projected Earnings

Earnings Estimates
Earnings Estimates



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Research Reports

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Analysts' Opinions

Analysts' Opinion 1
Analysts' Opinion 1
Analysts' Opinion 1
Analysts' Opinion 2



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Insider Activity

Insiders Chart Insider Trades
Insider Trades
Executive Compensation Executive Compensation



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Institutional Activity

Institutional Orders to Buy or Sell:

institutions 1
Ownership:

institutions 2


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Sentiment

sentiment

Zenith uses the "sentiment" score above or below 50 to award a positive or negative point in the Decision Matrix.

sentiment sentiment sentiment



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Short Interest Ratio

As the short interest rises as a percentage of average daily share volume (Days to Cover), this is considered a measure of negative sentiment. Similarly, a decrease in that percentage is considered positive sentiment.

short interest short interest


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Standard & Poor's

S&P Stock Report (Requires Adobe Acrobat Reader)



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Management's Discussion of Results of Operations Excerpts

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Moving Average Chart



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Right Time Study



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Channeling Potential

 
The summary below includes a value for `Degree,' which refers on a
scale of 1 to 10 the range of a channel in the period under consi-
deration compared to the total range of price movement. It also looks
for the last closing price to be within the channel, otherwise zeroed.
The `Index' is the `Degree' weighted for volatility.  Generally, the
the higher the index, the more suitable is the stock for trading as
a `rolling stock' between channel high and low points.

Results for CPI AEROSTRUCTURES INC.:
Symbol? CVU
Total Months Available: 139
       Months in Cycle?   4

Months Covered by Periods:  12

Period 1           Period 2          Period 3
   H1      L1        H2      L2        H3      L3
   8.70    6.12     10.15    6.25     10.05    5.55

RANGE   =  10.15  TO    5.55            Close =   8.25
CHANNEL =   8.70  TO    6.25           Degree =   5
Volatility =  29.70%                    Index =  14
Channel Chart



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MACD Histogram Divergence

The theory is that connecting the two most recent peaks or valleys of the MACD histogram will signal the direction of the next major move.



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Intraday Chart

2 Days:



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Val Idea

3 out of 8 favorable, (negative opinion.)

Val Idea


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Stock Consultant

Stock Consultant Stock Consultant



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Point & Figure Chart

P & F Chart


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Wall Street Analyzer




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Marketspace Chart

Marketspace Chart



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Time Series Forecast

Time Series 1 Time Series 2


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Neural Network Prediction

"Neurostock" can only track long trades. Therefore its performance, as tracked by itself on stocks which are consistently falling, may not appear as good as it could if each "sell" signal were a "short sale."

Neural Chart
Heading
Neural Trades Neural Prediction



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Ultimate Trading Systems

3 out of 3 of the ultimate systems favor a dowmove.


System Below:
Short term outlook: Positive: Bright Green, Negative: Bright Red
Long term outlook: Postive: Dark Green, Negative: Dark Red.




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Recommendation

Decision Weighting Factors
FactorsWeighted Points
News + 1
Comparison - 1
Industry + 1
Bond Issue 0
Zenith Index - 1
Non-GAAP vs. GAAP Earnings + 1
Cash Flow + 1
Average to Current P/E - 1
Ratios + 1
Market Grader - 1
Intrinsic Value DCF + 1
Tangible Book Value - 1
Projected Earnings + 1
Research Reports - 1
Analysts + 1
Executive Perquisites + 1
Insider Activity - 1
Institutional Activity - 1
Management Reporting + 1
Short Interest + 1
Sentiment - 1
Standard & Poor's - 1
Moving Average - 1
Right Time Study - 1
MACD Histogram Divergence - 1
Val Idea - 1
Stock Consultant + 1
Point & Figure + 1
Wall Street Analyzer - 1
Marketspace Chart - 1
Time Series Chart - 1
Neural Network + 1
Stock Options - 1
Ultimate Trading Systems - 1
Total - 5
Place 3,600 shares of CPI Aerostructures, Inc. (CPI) on the Active List.