01-07-2020: Builders FirstSource Inc. (BLDR): Digesting Acquisitions

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Recommendation

Builders FirstSource Inc.

BuildersFirstsource, Inc. (BLDR) is a building materials supplier that competes with the likes of Home Depot and Lowe's. It operates its outlets mainly along the East Coast and certain southern states but is expanding elsewhere throughout the country as well. News on this company consists of a spate of acquisitions in 2014-15 followed by a period when evidently it "digested" them, and a recent very large acquisition of ProSource, another competitor. Coincident with this news is an exceptional amount of financing and refinancing to get the capital to support its expansion and rapid growth.

The company was incorporated in Texas in 1998, went public in 2009 and was investigated by a couple of class action lawsuit attorneys for possible violation of fiduciary duty that did not benefit shareholders, however nothing apparently came out of the investigation.

The company is very-well liked by most researchers including Standard & Poor's which gave it its highest rating, along with others giving "strong buys." Valu Engine is a major exception, apparently because it sees possible lower earnings, although most analysts project higher earnings. Analysts are favorable and institutions are net acquirers, including Dimensional Fund Advisors among the major holders which we regard as a good sign.

The company has a strong Zenith Index indicating strong fundamentals. Cash flow is consider strong by McLean, which is generally neutral on other companies.

What we did not like particularly was the company's website, which did not appear to be used sufficiently to describe and sell the company's products, nor did the company have any sort of glitzy annual report and no CEO Letter to Shareholders, only conference calls. But "Management's Discussion" in SEC reports did appear well done to us.

One site reports the company's current profit margin as negative, which caused us to give it a negative financial ratio rating despite other strong fundamentals. Also, the debt load is high. However, the company current to average p/e ratio suggests it is a rare case of being under-valued in the current market, with which Zack's agrees.

The company is large with $7 billion in annual revenues, which is one reason the stock chart appears to us to be "sluggish." Still there seems major growth opportunity.

Technical indicators for the stock chart suggest a consolidation pattern which could break out on either side, so we would suggest waiting for some better momentum confirmation of direction before buying into this stock. 



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Zenith Index

Under current market conditions, a Zenith Index Score of 1.20 or above is required for a positive rating on this factor. 1.21 -1.30 is considered acceptable, 1.30-1.40 is considered strong and
> 1.40 is considered exceptionally strong. Accounting statements in this section often contain mistakes, especially in earlier years' totals, but data is deemed sufficient for us to give a rating. More accurate financial statements follow in the next section.

Builders FirstSource, Inc. (BLDR)                         Exchange: Nasdaq
2001 Bryan Street
Suite 1600                       Sector: Industrials
Dallas, TX 75201                 Industry:Building Products & Equipment

Builders FirstSource, Inc. manufactures and supplies building materials,
manufactured components, and construction services to professional
homebuilders, sub-contractors, remodelers, and consumers in the United
States. The company operates through four segments: Northeast,
Southeast, South, and West. It offers lumber and lumber sheet goods
comprising dimensional lumber, plywood, and oriented strand board
products that are used in on-site house framing; manufactured products,
such as wood floor and roof trusses, steel roof trusses, wall panels,
stairs, and engineered wood products; and windows, and interior and
exterior door units, as well as interior trims and custom products under
the Synboard brand name. The company also offers gypsum, roofing, and
insulation products, including wallboards, ceilings, joint treatments,
and finishes; and siding, metal, and concrete products, such as vinyl,
composite, and wood siding products, as well as exterior trims, other
exteriors, metal studs, and cement products. In addition, it provides
other building products and services, such as cabinets and hardware, as
well as turn-key framing, shell construction, design assistance, and
professional installation services. The company was formerly known as
BSL Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to Builders FirstSource, Inc. in
October 1999. Builders FirstSource, Inc. was founded in 1998 and is
headquartered in Dallas, Texas.

Last Trade:  25.41                           52-Week Range:  26.07 -  11.80
Employees: 15,000                            Avg.Volume:   1,222,993 Shares

Corporate Governance:
Pillar scores are Audit: 2; Board: 5; Shareholder Rights: 5; Compensation: 2.
         (A lower number means less governance risk.)

EPS:  1.99    Dividend Amount: $ 0.00          Yield:  0.00%
             Ex-Dividend Date:          N/A           Payout Ratio:   0.00

Key Statistics:

    Trailing P/E:  12.67              Forward P/E (est.):  11.46
                                           Target Price:  27.55

Qrtly Stock Price Growth (yoy): 103.28%               Beta:   0.00
Qrtly S&P Index   Growth (yoy):  -6.50%        Short Ratio:   3.33%
    Qrtly Revenue Growth (yoy):  27.77%         Shares Out:  115790000
   Qrtly Earnings Growth (yoy):   6.50%

          Book Value:   6.73                    Debt/Equity: 212.78%
    Price/Book Value:   3.75        Operating Profit Margin:   5.56%
         Price/Sales:   0.40                  Profit Margin:   3.17%
         Market Cap:   2,900,000,000       Return on Equity:  35.29%
    Enterprise Value:   4,530,000,000      Return on Assets:   7.85%

    Operating Cash Flow:    633,560,000
         Free Cash Flow:    430,200,000



Annual Income Statement:                          (All numbers in thousands)
  Period Ending                             12/31/2018  12/31/2017  12/31/2016

  Total Revenue                              7,724,771   7,034,209   6,367,284
  Cost of Revenue                            5,801,831   5,306,818   4,770,536
  Gross Profit                               1,922,940   1,727,391   1,596,748

Operating Expenses:
  Research & Development                             0           0           0
  Selling, General & Administrative          1,553,972   1,442,288   1,360,412
  Total Operating Expenses                   1,553,972   1,442,288   1,360,412

Operating Income or Loss                       368,968     285,103     236,336

Income from Continuing Operations:
  Total Other Income/Expenses Net                    0           0           0
  Interest Expense                                   0           0     214,667
  Income Before Taxes                          260,755      91,929      21,669
  Income Tax Expense                            55,564    -122,672           0
Net Income from Continuing Op.s                205,191      38,781     144,341

Net Income Avail to Common Shares              205,191      38,781     144,341

Annual Cash Flow Statement:                   (All numbers in thousands)
  Period Ending                         12/31/2018    12/31/2017    12/31/2016

  Net Income                               205,191        38,781       144,341

Operating Activities:
  Depreciation                              97,906        92,993       109,793
  Accounts Receivable                            0       -75,870       -45,942
  Changes in Liabilities                   -86,589       -85,769       -45,555
  Inventories                               -5,425       -60,645       -33,965
  Changes in other Oper'g Acts             181,419       116,121       115,565

Total Cash Flow f Operations               282,830       178,528       158,227

Investing Activities:
  Capital Exenditures                     -101,411       -62,407       -42,662
  Investments                             -101,411       -62,407       -42,662
  Other Cash Flows fr Investing                  0             0             0

Total Cash Flows from Investing            -96,658       -59,426       -38,327

Financing Activities:
  Dividends Paid                                 0             0             0
  Sale of Purchase of Stock                 -4,895        -2,644        -1,092
  Net Borrowings                        -1,898,312    -1,399,926    -1,774,517
  Other Cash Flows fr Financing               -134       -51,503             0

Total Cash Flows from Financing           -233,578       -76,018      -170,514

Change in Cash & Cash Equiv.               -47,406        43,084       -50,614



Annual Balance Sheets:                              (All Numbers in Thousands)
  Period Ending                          12/31/2018    12/31/2017    12/31/2016
Current Assets:
  Cash & Cash Equivalents                    10,127        57,533        14,449
  Short Term Investments                          0             0             0
  Net Receivables                           654,170       631,992       569,208
  Inventory                                 596,896       601,547       541,771
  Other Current Assets                       43,921        33,564        34,772
  Total Current Assets                    1,305,114     1,277,230     1,155,878
Non-current Assets:
  Long-Term Investments                      22,152        22,870        22,701
  Property, Plant & Equipt                1,060,200       964,154       925,433
  Goodwill                                  740,411       740,411       740,411
  Intangible Assets                         103,154       132,567       159,373
  Accumulated Amortization                 -390,125      -324,851      -269,332
  Other Assets                               22,152        22,870        22,701

Total Assets                              2,932,309     3,006,124     2,909,887

Current Liabilities:
  Accounts Payable                          423,168       514,282       409,759
  Taxes Payable                                   0             0             0
  Other Current Liabilities                       0             0        35,606
  Total Current Liabilities               8,183,545     7,584,097      6,812,649

  Long Term Debt                            423,168       514,282       409,759
  Deferred LT Liab. Charges                       0             0        35,606

Total Liabilities                        10,029,115     9,429,667     8,658,219

Stockholder Equity:
  Common Stock                                1,151         1,136         1,115
  Retained Earnings                          34,966      -171,693      -219,363
  Other Stockhohlder Equity                       0             0             0
  Total Stockholder Equity                  596,338       596,338       596,338

Net Tangible Assets                       2,932,309     3,006,124     2,909,887


Builders FirstSource, Inc. (BLDR)           [Indices near +3.0, near zero,
                                            or < zero bear special attention.]
P/E Ratio Tests:
P/E Ratio < 28?            2.2099          P/E Ratio > 5?             1.0000
P/E Ratio Vs Growth Rate:  3.0000          Forward P/E Ratio < 28?    2.4433
Price/Sales Ratio < 2.3?   3.0000          Inventory/Sales < 5%?      0.6471
Sales < $1 Billion?        0.1295          Operating Margin < 7.5%?   1.3489

Balance Sheet Tests:
Debt/Equity < 0.40?        0.1880          Long-Term Debt Service:   -3.0000
LTD Being Reduced?         3.0000          Short-Term Debt Service:   3.0000
Current Ratio > 2?         0.0797          Working Capital >= 1.5?    3.0000
Leverage Ratio < 20%?      0.1689          Debt/Assets < 1?           1.8970
Quick Ratio > 1?           3.0000          Inventory Turnover > 1?    1.0000
Share Equity Increase:     2.0000          Market Cap.< 1.5 Billion?  0.5172
                                           Intangibles < 3% Assets?   0.1043
Income Tests:
Profit Margin < 7.5%?      0.4227          EPS Annual Growth > 10%?   0.0189
Dividend Yield > 2.0%?     0.0000          EPS 3-yr Growth > 15?      0.1055
Enterprise Value/Revenue   0.3756          EPS Growth Consistent?     0.0000
Enterprise Value/EBITDA:   3.0000          Collection < 45 days?      1.4558
EPS Qrtly Growth > 10%?    0.0154          Gross Pft / LTD > 1?       1.2440
                                           Borrowing Int. Rate < 6%?  3.0000
Stock Performance Tests:
Volatility > 25%?          2.1895          % Held by Insiders < 5%?   3.0000
Beta > 1.25?               0.0000          % Held by Institut. < 50?  0.5619
50 Da MA > 200 Da MA?      0.5183          % Held by Institut. > 30?  2.9660
52-Wk Change vs. S&P 500:  3.0000          Short Ratio > 5?           0.6660
Price/Book Value < 3?      0.7946          Short % of Float > 20?     0.1540
Return on Assets > 17%?    0.4618          Average Volume > 100,000?  3.0000

Cash Flow Tests:
Oper. C.F. > Lever'd C.F:  1.4727          Positive Free Cash Flow?   3.0000
Positive Oper. Cash Flow?  3.0000          Price to C.F.Ratio < 14?:  2.9596
                                           Cash Flow / Assets > 10%?  2.0907

BLDR   Builders FirstSource, Inc.          Overall Zenith Index:      1.3915


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Financial Statements

BUILDERS FIRSTSOURCE INC  (BLDR)            INCOME STATEMENT

Fiscal year ends in December. USD in thousand        2014-12         2015-12         2016-12         2017-12         2018-12             TTM           

Revenue                                            1,604,096       3,564,425       6,367,284       7,034,209       7,724,771       7,332,838
Cost of revenue                                    1,247,099       2,662,967       4,770,536       5,306,818       5,801,831       5,339,786
Gross profit                                         356,997         901,458       1,596,748       1,727,391       1,922,940       1,993,052


Operating expenses
Sales, General and administrative                    306,508         810,841       1,360,412       1,442,288       1,553,972       1,585,407
Restructuring, merger and acquisition                    471               0               0               0               0               0
Other operating expenses                                -471               0               0               0               0               0
Total operating expenses                             306,508         810,841       1,360,412       1,442,288       1,553,972       1,585,407

Operating income                                      50,489          90,617         236,336         285,103         368,968         407,645
Other income (expense)                               -30,820        -109,199        -214,667        -193,174        -108,213        -105,479
Income before taxes                                   19,669         -18,582          21,669          91,929         260,755         302,166
Provision for income taxes                             1,111           4,387        -122,672          53,148          55,564          69,703
Net income from continuing operations                 18,558         -22,969         144,341          38,781         205,191         232,463
Net income from discontinuing ops                       -408             138               0               0               0               0
Net income                                            18,150         -22,831         144,341          38,781         205,191         232,463
Net income available to common shareholders           18,150         -22,831         144,341          38,781         205,191         232,463

Earnings per share
Basic                                                   0.19           -0.22            1.30            0.34            1.79            2.01 
Diluted                                                 0.18           -0.22            1.27            0.34            1.76            1.99 

Weighted average shares outstanding
Basic                                                 98,050         103,190         110,754         112,587         114,586         115,455
Diluted                                              100,522         103,190         113,585         115,597         116,554         116,746

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


BUILDERS FIRSTSOURCE INC  (BLDR)            BALANCE SHEET

Fiscal year ends in December. USD in thousand        2014-12         2015-12         2016-12         2017-12         2018-12             
Assets

Current assets

Cash

Total cash                                            17,773          65,063          14,449          57,533          10,127

Receivables                                          142,204         528,544         569,208         631,992         654,170
Inventories                                          138,156         513,045         541,771         601,547         596,896
Other current assets                                  33,407          87,677          90,553         104,796         112,558
Total current assets                                 331,540       1,194,329       1,215,981       1,395,868       1,373,751

Non-current assets

Property, plant and equipment
Gross property, plant and equipment                  227,996         922,598         925,433         964,154       1,060,200
Accumulated Depreciation                            -152,317        -188,269        -269,332        -324,851        -390,125
Net property, plant and equipment                     75,679         734,329         656,101         639,303         670,075

Goodwill                                             139,774         739,625         740,411         740,411         740,411
Intangible assets                                     17,228         189,604         159,373         132,567         103,154
Deferred income taxes                                      0               0         115,320          75,105          22,766
Other long-term assets                                18,844          24,151          22,701          22,870          22,152
Total non-current assets                             251,525       1,687,709       1,693,906       1,610,256       1,558,558

Total assets                                         583,065       2,882,038       2,909,887       3,006,124       2,932,309 

Liabilities and stockholders' equity

Liabilities

Current liabilities
Short-term debt                                       30,074          29,153          16,217          12,475          15,565
Accounts payable                                      75,868         365,347         409,759         514,282         423,168
Taxes payable                                          9,167          29,054          30,177          28,460          28,954
Accrued liabilities                                   40,361         186,210         183,763         160,722         174,452
Deferred revenues                                      4,665          38,173          38,448          46,894          53,816
Other current liabilities                             12,032          87,301          76,333          35,521          35,304
Total current liabilities                            172,167         735,238         754,697         798,354         731,259

Non-current liabilities
Long-term debt                                       353,830       1,922,518       1,785,835       1,771,945       1,545,729
Deferred taxes liabilities                             6,441          11,502               0               0               0
Other long-term liabilities                           10,427          63,585          59,735          59,616          58,983
Total non-current liabilities                        370,698       1,997,605       1,845,570       1,831,561       1,604,712

Total liabilities                                    542,865       2,732,843       2,600,267       2,629,915       2,335,971 

Stockholders' equity

Common stock                                             982           1,097           1,115           1,136           1,151
Additional paid-in capital                           380,091         511,802         527,868         546,766         560,221
Retained earnings                                   -340,873        -363,704        -219,363        -171,693          34,966
Total stockholders' equity                            40,200         149,195         309,620         376,209         596,338
Total liabilities and stockholders' equity           583,065       2,882,038       2,909,887       3,006,124       2,932,309

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


BUILDERS FIRSTSOURCE INC  (BLDR)            Statement of CASH FLOW

Fiscal year ends in December. USD in thousand        2014-12         2015-12         2016-12         2017-12         2018-12             TTM           

Cash Flows From Operating Activities
Net income                                            18,150         -22,831         144,341          38,781         205,191         232,463
Depreciation & amortization                            9,519          58,280         109,793          92,993          97,906          96,986
Investment/asset impairment charges                     -274           4,399           6,006             197               0               0
Investments losses (gains)                              -456           4,563               0               0               0               0
Deferred income taxes                                    524           3,287        -124,787          49,104          51,823          52,541
Stock based compensation                               6,157           6,848          10,549          13,508          14,420          13,871
Change in working capital                             -8,445         104,360         -45,555         -85,769         -86,589         234,409
Inventory                                             -9,103          46,854         -33,965         -60,645          -5,425         103,477
Accounts payable                                      -5,178         -45,286          36,585          65,764         -89,392          -2,687
Accrued liabilities                                   10,174          29,709           4,281         -23,341          22,168          26,482
Other working capital                                 -4,338          73,083         -52,456         -67,547         -13,940         107,137
Other non-cash items                                   2,318          18,128          57,880          69,714              79           3,292
Net cash provided by operating activities             27,493         177,034         158,227         178,528         282,830         633,562

Cash Flows From Investing Activities
Investments in property, plant, and equipmen         -25,716         -43,811         -42,662         -62,407        -101,411        -100,655
Property, plant, and equipment reductions                213           4,275           8,305           2,981           4,753           8,337
Acquisitions, net                                    -69,337      -1,468,511          -3,970               0               0         -33,931
Net cash used for investing activities               -94,840      -1,508,047         -38,327         -59,426         -96,658        -126,249

Cash Flows From Financing Activities
Debt issued                                           30,000       1,614,000       1,657,000       1,370,000       1,665,818       1,782,375
Debt repayment                                           -67        -294,213      -1,774,517      -1,399,926      -1,898,312      -2,264,201
Common stock issued                                        0         111,309               0               0               0               0
Common stock repurchased                              -1,306            -986          -1,092          -2,644          -4,895         -10,432
Other financing activities                             1,797         -51,807         -51,905         -43,448           3,811          -6,230
Net cash provided by (used for) financing             30,424       1,378,303        -170,514         -76,018        -233,578        -498,488

Net change in cash                                   -36,923          47,290         -50,614          43,084         -47,406           8,825
Cash at beginning of period                           54,696          17,773          65,063          14,449          57,533          34,446
Cash at end of period                                 17,773          65,063          14,449          57,533          10,127          43,271

Free Cash Flow
Operating cash flow                                   27,493         177,034         158,227         178,528         282,830         633,562
Capital expenditure                                  -25,716         -43,811         -42,662         -62,407        -101,411        -100,655
Free cash flow                                         1,777         133,223         115,565         116,121         181,419         532,907
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________





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Average to Current P/E Ratios
              (BLDR)     Builders FirstSource Inc.

                               2015    2016    2017    2018    2019

          Annual Earnings:     0.00   -0.22    1.27    0.34    1.76
Average Price During Year:    11.36   10.96   14.92   18.17   16.60

                P/E Ratio:   113.58   49.81   11.74   53.43    9.43

 Average 5-Year P/E Ratio  =  47.60
             Current Price =  25.22

Previous 5 Quarter Earnings:   0.63    0.45    0.31    0.57    0.67

          Current Annualized (Last Four Quarters) Earnings =   1.55
                                                           ________
                                 Average PE / Current PE =     2.93
                                                           --------

                                      ...a number above 1.00 is good
                                                1.00 or below is bad


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Sentiment

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Zenith uses the "sentiment" score above or below 50 to award a positive or negative point in the Decision Matrix.

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Short Interest Ratio

As the short interest rises as a percentage of average daily share volume (Days to Cover), this is considered a measure of negative sentiment. Similarly, a decrease in that percentage is considered positive sentiment.

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Management's Discussion of Results of Operations Excerpts

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Channeling Potential

 
The summary below includes a value for `Degree,' which refers on a
scale of 1 to 10 the range of a channel in the period under consi-
deration compared to the total range of price movement. It also looks
for the last closing price to be within the channel, otherwise zeroed.
The `Index' is the `Degree' weighted for volatility.  Generally, the
the higher the index, the more suitable is the stock for trading as
a `rolling stock' between channel high and low points.

Results for BUILDERS FIRSTSOURCE INC.:
Symbol? BLDR
Total Months Available:  25
       Months in Cycle?   4

Months Covered by Periods:  12

Period 1           Period 2          Period 3
   H1      L1        H2      L2        H3      L3
  14.95   10.56     20.30   13.73     26.07   18.68

RANGE   =  26.07  TO   10.56            Close =  25.41
CHANNEL =  18.68  TO   14.95           Degree =   2
Volatility =  14.68%                    Index =   2
Channel Chart



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MACD Histogram Divergence

The theory is that connecting the two most recent peaks or valleys of the MACD histogram will signal the direction of the next major move.



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Intraday Chart

2 Days:



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Val Idea

6 out of 11 favorable, (positive opinion.)

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Neural Network Prediction

"Neurostock" can only track long trades. Therefore its performance, as tracked by itself on stocks which are consistently falling, may not appear as good as it could if each "sell" signal were a "short sale."

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Ultimate Trading Systems

2 out of 3 of the ultimate systems favor a downmove.


System Below:
Short term outlook: Positive: Bright Green, Negative: Bright Red
Long term outlook: Postive: Dark Green, Negative: Dark Red.




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Recommendation

Decision Weighting Factors
FactorsWeighted Points
News + 1
Comparison - 1
Industry - 1
Bond Issue + 1
Zenith Index + 1
Non-GAAP vs. GAAP Earnings - 1
Cash Flow + 1
Average to Current P/E + 1
Ratios - 1
Intrinsic Value DCF - 1
Fair Value Estimator + 1
Projected Earnings + 1
Research Reports + 1
Analysts + 1
Executive Perquisites - 1
Insider Activity - 1
Institutional Activity + 1
Management Reporting + 1
Short Interest + 1
Sentiment + 1
Standard & Poor's + 1
MACD Histogram Divergence - 1
Val Idea + 1
Stock Consultant 0
Point & Figure + 1
Wall Street Analyzer - 1
Marketspace Chart + 1
Time Series Chart - 1
Neural Network + 1
Stock Options + 1
Ultimate Trading Systems - 1
Total + 8
Place 1,190 shares of Builders Firstsource, Inc. (BLDR) on the Active List.