11-12-2019: Arconic Inc. (ARNC): Engineered Aluminum Products

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Recommendation

Arconic Inc.

Arconic, Inc. (ARNC) has been variously described as a metal fabricator of specialty metals and parts or a basic materials provider, most notably of aluminum. Lightweight aluminum is heavily used in aircraft manufacture and hence Arconic has a close association with aerospace.

The company was listed as a separate entity well after 2013, which is currently the year we try to accept only stocks listed at or before that time in order to build up an adequate track record. Some of our systems fail to predict well with less than five years of financial tracking data, so we made a slight mistake in selecting this company, but not too serious a one.

Perhaps the essential thing to grasp about this company is that it IS the original Aluminum Company of America (Alcoa). In the 1960's and '70's the aluminum group of companies became one of the darlings of Wall Street. In 2015, Alcoa decided to split itself apart into two companies, with the basic metals and mining end remaining "Alcoa" but Alcoa's global rolled products, engineered products, and transportation and construction solutions would form into a separate company, "Arconic."

Arconic has been plagued with further divestitures on top of itself being divested from Alcoa. These divestitutes have had a negative impact on earnings. They are signs of a troubled company.

Management has been putting forth restructuring and cost-cutting proposals, buying back stock shares, and dealing with labor difficulties, especially with the United Steelworkers of America union.

We think the CEO is way over-compensated and there other less prominent leaders also feeding at the trough. Compensation appears to represent poor corporate governance.

Adding to all that is activist shareholder intervention to criticize management, particular from Elliot International which is a big holder of shares. Elliot and other institutional investors have been selling off shares. Another activist investor, Apollo Management, one of the worst managers that has devastated corporations it takes over also showed interest in acquiring the huge Arconic, Inc. Rumors surrounding potential buyers cause the stock to make occasional quantum jump moves but within a fairly limited trading range, perhaps hindered by the size of the corporation. So our conclusion is that it might make a "forgiving" trading stock vehicle.

Because the company's parts are so essential to certain industries, especially aircraft manufacturers, and air travel is increasing, prospects look good. However, attempts to branch out into other areas such as building materials have led even to lawsuits regarding at least one material supplied to be the cause of a major fire. Current class action lawsuits related to that are affecting the company.

It has what we regard as a very good website describing its products as well as glitzy annual report and CEO Letter to Shareholders, expressing optimism.



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Zenith Index

Under current market conditions, a Zenith Index Score of 1.20 or above is required for a positive rating on this factor. 1.21 -1.30 is considered acceptable, 1.30-1.40 is considered strong and
> 1.40 is considered exceptionally strong. Accounting statements in this section often contain mistakes, especially in earlier years' totals, but data is deemed sufficient for us to give a rating. More accurate financial statements follow in the next section.

Arconic Inc. (ARNC)                                       Exchange: NYSE
390 Park Avenue
New York, NY 10022               Sector: Industrials
United States                    Industry: Diversified Industrials

Arconic Inc. engineers, manufactures, and sells lightweight metals
worldwide. The company operate in three segments: Engineered Products
and Solutions, Global Rolled Products, and Transportation and
Construction Solutions. The Engineered Products and Solutions segment
produces and sells fastening systems and seamless rolled rings;
investment castings, including airfoils and forged jet engine
components; and extruded, machined, and formed aircraft parts for
aerospace (commercial and defense), industrial, commercial
transportation, and power generation end markets. It also offers various
forged, extruded, and machined metal products for the oil and gas,
automotive, and land and sea defense end markets. The Global Rolled
Products segment produces and sells aluminum sheets and plates for the
aerospace, automotive, commercial transportation, packaging, building
and construction, and industrial products end markets; and aseptic foils
for the packaging end market. The Transportation and Construction
Solutions segment provides integrated aluminum structural systems,
architectural extrusions, and forged aluminum commercial vehicle wheels,
which are used primarily in the commercial transportation and
nonresidential building and construction end markets. It also produces
aluminum products for the industrial products end market. Arconic Inc.
sells its products directly to customers, as well as through
distributors. The company was founded in 1888 and is based in New York,
New York.

Last Trade:  28.91                           52-Week Range:  29.55 -  15.63
Employees: 43,000                            Avg.Volume:   3,167,328 Shares

Corporate Governance:
Pllar scores are Audit: 1; Board: 3; Shareholder Rights: 3; Compensation: 10.
         (A lower number means less governance risk.)

EPS:  0.81    Dividend Amount: $ 0.08          Yield:  0.27%
             Ex-Dividend Date: Nov 6, 2019     Payout Ratio:  20.25

Key Statistics:

    Trailing P/E:  35.59              Forward P/E (est.):  12.07
                                           Target Price:  30.67

Qrtly Stock Price Growth (yoy):  43.97%               Beta:   2.03
Qrtly S&P Index   Growth (yoy):   1.00%        Short Ratio:   2.62%
    Qrtly Revenue Growth (yoy):  52.00%         Shares Out:  433390000
   Qrtly Earnings Growth (yoy): -41.00%

          Book Value:  10.69                    Debt/Equity: 140.28%
    Price/Book Value:   2.71        Operating Profit Margin:  10.43%
         Price/Sales:   0.88                  Profit Margin:   2.66%
         Market Cap:  12,542,000,000       Return on Equity:   7.52%
    Enterprise Value:  17,900,000,000      Return on Assets:   5.19%

    Operating Cash Flow:        217,000
         Free Cash Flow:       -997,000



Annual Income Statement:                          (All numbers in thousands)
  Period Ending                             12/31/2018  12/31/2017  12/31/2016

  Total Revenue                             14,014,000  12,960,000  12,394,000
  Cost of Revenue                           11,397,000  10,357,000   9,811,000
  Gross Profit                               2,617,000   2,603,000   2,583,000

Operating Expenses:
  Research & Development                       103,000     111,000     132,000
  Selling, General & Administrative            604,000     731,000     942,000
  Total Operating Expenses                   1,283,000   1,393,000   1,609,000

Operating Income or Loss                     1,334,000   1,210,000     974,000

Income from Continuing Operations:
  Total Other Income/Expenses Net              -88,000    -244,000     -77,000
  Interest Expense                             378,000     496,000     499,000
  Income Before Taxes                          868,000     470,000     414,000
  Income Tax Expense                           226,000     544,000   1,476,000

Net Income from Continuing Op.s                642,000     -74,000  -1,062,000

Non-recurring Events:
  Extraordinary Items                                0           0    -121,000
  Net Income                                   642,000     -74,000    -941,000

Net Income Avail to Common Shares              642,000     -74,000  -1,010,000



Annual Cash Flow Statement:                   (All numbers in thousands)
  Period Ending                         12/31/2018    12/31/2017    12/31/2016

  Net Income                               642,000       -74,000    -1,062,000

Operating Activities:
  Depreciation                             576,000             0             0
  Changes in Accounts Recv'bls          -1,142,000      -124,000      -238,000
  Changes in Liabilities                  -551,000       105,000      -255,000
  Changes in Inventories                   -74,000      -192,000       -29,000
  Changes in other Oper'g Acts          -1,306,000      -926,000    -1,102,000

Total Cash Flow f Operations               217,000       701,000       870,000

Investing Activities:
  Capital Exenditures                     -768,000      -596,000    -1,125,000
  Investments                                    0             0        10,000
  Other Cash Flows fr Investing          1,324,000       248,000       722,000

Total Cash Flows from Investing            565,000       540,000      -165,000

Financing Activities:
  Dividends Paid                          -119,000      -162,000      -228,000
  Sale of Purchase of Stock                      0             0             0
  Other Cash Flows fr Financing            -19,000       -31,000       722,000

Total Cash Flows from Financing           -649,000      -963,000      -754,000

Change in Cash & Cash Equiv.               129,000       287,000       -56,000



Annual Balance Sheets:                              (All Numbers in Thousands)
  Period Ending                          12/31/2018    12/31/2017    12/31/2016
Current Assets:
  Cash & Cash Equivalents                 2,150,000     1,863,000     1,362,000
  Short Term Investments                          0             0             0
  Net Receivables                         1,035,000       974,000       960,000
  Inventory                               2,480,000     2,253,000     2,284,000
  Other Current Assets                            0             0     2,556,000
  Total Current Assets                    6,378,000     5,892,000     7,953,000

  Long-Term Investments                  11,986,000    11,572,000    11,568,000
  Property, Plant & Equipt                5,594,000     5,499,000     5,425,000
  Goodwill                                4,535,000     5,148,000     5,249,000
  Intangible Assets                         987,000       988,000     1,104,000
  Other Assets                              481,000       155,000    15,245,000

Total Assets                             18,718,000    20,038,000    36,477,000

Current Liabilities:
  Accounts Payable                        1,839,000     1,744,000     1,510,000
  Current Portion LT Debt                   124,000       153,000       170,000
  Other Current Liabilities                 349,000       329,000     2,977,000
  Total Current Liabilities               2,824,000     2,749,000      5,211,000

  Long Term Debt                          6,806,000     8,044,000     8,786,000
  Other Liabilities                         759,000       240,000       290,000

Total Liabilities                        13,794,000    14,897,000    22,346,000

Stockholder Equity:
  Common Stock                              536,000       496,000     1,449,000
  Retained Earnings                      -1,248,000    -1,027,000     8,834,000
  Capital Surplus                        -2,644,000    -2,568,000    -5,431,000
  Total Stockholder Equity                4,910,000     5,115,000    12,046,000


Arconic Inc. (ARNC)                         [Indices near +3.0, near zero,
                                            or < zero bear special attention.]
P/E Ratio Tests:
P/E Ratio < 28?            0.7867          P/E Ratio > 5?             1.0000
P/E Ratio Vs Growth Rate: -3.0000          Forward P/E Ratio < 28?    2.3198
Price/Sales Ratio < 2.3?   2.6136          Inventory/Sales < 5%?      0.2825
Sales < $1 Billion?        0.0714          Operating Margin < 7.5%?   0.7191

Balance Sheet Tests:
Debt/Equity < 0.40?        0.2851          Long-Term Debt Service:    0.7235
LTD Being Reduced?         3.0000          Short-Term Debt Service:   0.0000
Current Ratio > 2?         1.1292          Working Capital >= 1.5?    0.6730
Leverage Ratio < 20%?      0.1874          Debt/Assets < 1?           2.7502
Quick Ratio > 1?           3.0000          Inventory Turnover > 1?    1.9330
Share Equity Increase:     1.3845          Market Cap.< 1.5 Billion?  0.1196
                                           Intangibles < 3% Assets?   0.1017
Income Tests:
Profit Margin < 7.5%?      0.3547          EPS Annual Growth > 10%?  -0.0115
Dividend Yield > 2.0%?     3.0000          EPS 3-yr Growth > 15?     -0.2360
Enterprise Value/Revenue   0.8953          EPS Growth Consistent?     2.0000
Enterprise Value/EBITDA:   3.0000          Collection < 45 days?      1.6693
EPS Qrtly Growth > 10%?   -0.0024          Gross Pft/Cur. LTD > 1?    3.0000
                                           Borrowing Int. Rate < 6%?  1.0803
Stock Performance Tests:
Volatility > 25%?          1.8843          % Held by Insiders < 5%?   3.0000
Beta > 1.25?               1.6240          % Held by Institut. < 50?  0.5524
50 Da MA > 200 Da MA?      0.2044          % Held by Institut. > 30?  3.0000
52-Wk Change vs. S&P 500:  0.8456          Short Ratio > 5?           0.5240
Price/Book Value < 3?      3.0000          Short % of Float > 20?     0.1210
Return on Assets > 17%?    0.3053          Average Volume > 100,000?  3.0000

Cash Flow Tests:
Oper. C.F. > Lever'd C.F: -0.2177          Positive Free Cash Flow?  -1.0000
Positive Oper. Cash Flow?  3.0000          Price to C.F.Ratio < 14?:  1.5974
                                           Cash Flow / Assets > 10%?  0.7645

ARNC   Arconic Inc.                        Overall Zenith Index:      1.1670


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Financial Statements

ARCONIC INC  (ARNC)                         INCOME STATEMENT

Fiscal year ends in December. USD in thousan         2014-12         2015-12         2016-12         2017-12         2018-12             TTM           

Revenue                                           12,542,000      12,413,000      12,394,000      12,960,000      14,014,000      14,263,000
Cost of revenue                                   10,349,000      10,104,000       9,811,000      10,357,000      11,397,000      11,402,000
Gross profit                                       2,193,000       2,309,000       2,583,000       2,603,000       2,617,000       2,861,000


Operating expenses
Research and development                             123,000         169,000         132,000         111,000         103,000          81,000
Sales, General and administrative                    770,000         765,000         942,000         731,000         695,000         754,000
Restructuring, merger and acquisition                 95,000          89,000          45,000          53,000           1,000         611,000
Other operating expenses                             341,000         419,000         490,000         498,000         575,000         -55,000
Total operating expenses                           1,329,000       1,442,000       1,609,000       1,393,000       1,374,000       1,391,000

Operating income                                     864,000         867,000         974,000       1,210,000       1,243,000       1,470,000
Interest Expense                                     442,000         473,000         499,000         496,000         378,000         343,000
Other income (expense)                              -309,000        -211,000         -61,000        -244,000           3,000        -630,000
Income before taxes                                  113,000         183,000         414,000         470,000         868,000         497,000
Provision for income taxes                           174,000         339,000       1,476,000         544,000         226,000         118,000
Net income from continuing operations                -61,000        -156,000      -1,062,000         -74,000         642,000         379,000
Net income from discontinuing ops                    238,000         -41,000         184,000               0               0               0
Other                                                 91,000        -125,000         -63,000               0               0               0
Net income                                           268,000        -322,000        -941,000         -74,000         642,000         379,000
Preferred dividend                                    21,000          69,000          69,000          53,000           2,000           2,000
Net income available to common shareholders          247,000        -391,000      -1,010,000        -127,000         640,000         377,000

Earnings per share
Basic                                                   0.56           -0.89           -2.31           -0.28            1.33            0.81 
Diluted                                                 0.56           -0.89           -2.31           -0.28            1.30            0.79 

Weighted average shares outstanding
Basic                                                438,000         438,000         438,000         451,000         483,000         459,000
Diluted                                              443,000         443,000         438,000         451,000         503,000         467,000

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


ARCONIC INC  (ARNC)                         BALANCE SHEET

Fiscal year ends in December. USD in thousan         2014-12         2015-12         2016-12         2017-12         2018-12             

Assets

Current assets

Cash

Total cash                                                 0       1,362,000       1,863,000       2,150,000       2,277,000

Receivables                                                0         960,000         974,000       1,035,000       1,047,000
Inventories                                                0       2,284,000       2,253,000       2,480,000       2,492,000
Prepaid expenses                                           0         397,000         325,000         374,000         314,000
Other current assets                                       0       2,950,000         477,000         339,000         451,000
Total current assets                                       0       7,953,000       5,892,000       6,378,000       6,581,000

Non-current assets

Property, plant and equipment
Gross property, plant and equipment                        0      11,568,000      11,572,000      11,986,000      12,473,000
Accumulated Depreciation                                   0      -6,143,000      -6,073,000      -6,392,000      -6,769,000
Net property, plant and equipment                          0       5,425,000       5,499,000       5,594,000       5,704,000

Equity and other investments                               0         193,000       1,122,000               0               0
Goodwill                                                   0       5,249,000       5,148,000       4,535,000       4,500,000
Intangible assets                                          0       1,104,000         988,000         987,000         919,000
Deferred income taxes                                      0       1,308,000       1,234,000         743,000         573,000
Other long-term assets                                     0      15,245,000         155,000         481,000         416,000
Total non-current assets                                   0      28,524,000      14,146,000      12,340,000      12,112,000

Total assets                                               0      36,477,000      20,038,000      18,718,000      18,693,000 

Liabilities and stockholders' equity

Liabilities

Current liabilities
Short-term debt                                            0          41,000          40,000          38,000         434,000
Accounts payable                                           0       1,510,000       1,744,000       1,839,000       2,129,000
Taxes payable                                              0         103,000          85,000          75,000         118,000
Accrued liabilities                                        0         170,000         153,000         124,000         113,000
Other current liabilities                                  0       3,387,000         727,000         748,000         726,000
Total current liabilities                                  0       5,211,000       2,749,000       2,824,000       3,520,000

Non-current liabilities
Long-term debt                                             0       8,786,000       8,044,000       6,806,000       5,896,000
Pensions and other benefits                                0       3,079,000       3,450,000       3,623,000       3,148,000
Minority interest                                          0       2,085,000          26,000          14,000          12,000
Other long-term liabilities                                0       5,270,000         654,000         541,000         544,000
Total non-current liabilities                              0      19,220,000      12,174,000      10,984,000       9,600,000

Total liabilities                                          0      24,431,000      14,923,000      13,808,000      13,120,000 

Stockholders' equity

Preferred stock                                            0          58,000          58,000          55,000          55,000
Common stock                                               0       1,391,000         438,000         481,000         483,000
Additional paid-in capital                                 0      10,019,000       8,214,000       8,266,000       8,319,000
Retained earnings                                          0       8,834,000      -1,027,000      -1,248,000        -358,000
Treasury stock                                             0      -2,825,000               0               0               0
Accumulated other comprehensive income                     0      -5,431,000      -2,568,000      -2,644,000      -2,926,000
Total stockholders' equity                                 0      12,046,000       5,115,000       4,910,000       5,573,000
Total liabilities and stockholders' equity                 0      36,477,000      20,038,000      18,718,000      18,693,000

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


ARCONIC INC  (ARNC)                         Statement of CASH FLOW

Fiscal year ends in December. USD in thousan         2014-12         2015-12         2016-12         2017-12         2018-12             TTM           

Cash Flows From Operating Activities
Net income                                           177,000        -197,000        -878,000         -74,000         642,000         379,000
Depreciation & amortization                        1,372,000       1,280,000       1,132,000         551,000         576,000         556,000
Investment/asset impairment charges                        0          25,000               0         719,000               0               0
Deferred income taxes                                -35,000          34,000       1,125,000         434,000          31,000        -100,000
Stock based compensation                              87,000          92,000          86,000          67,000          50,000          51,000
Change in working capital                         -1,632,000      -1,375,000      -1,102,000        -926,000      -1,306,000      -1,334,000
Inventory                                           -355,000         -64,000         -29,000        -192,000         -74,000          18,000
Prepaid expenses                                     -25,000          46,000         -76,000          11,000          -1,000          19,000
Accounts payable                                     256,000         -90,000         232,000          62,000         339,000         -37,000
Accrued liabilities                                 -451,000        -437,000        -394,000        -116,000        -190,000        -184,000
Income taxes payable                                   7,000          25,000          93,000         -23,000         104,000         133,000
Other working capital                             -1,064,000        -855,000        -928,000        -668,000      -1,484,000      -1,283,000
Other non-cash items                               1,705,000       1,723,000         507,000         -70,000         224,000         774,000
Net cash provided by operating activities          1,674,000       1,582,000         870,000         701,000         217,000         326,000

Cash Flows From Investing Activities
Investments in property, plant, and equipmen      -1,219,000      -1,180,000      -1,125,000        -596,000        -768,000        -686,000
Acquisitions, net                                 -2,385,000          97,000          10,000               0               0               0
Purchases of investments                            -195,000        -134,000         -52,000          -2,000               0               0
Sales/Maturities of investments                       57,000          40,000         280,000         890,000           9,000          47,000
Other investing activities                           282,000         117,000         722,000         248,000       1,324,000       1,281,000
Net cash used for investing activities            -3,460,000      -1,060,000        -165,000         540,000         565,000         642,000

Cash Flows From Financing Activities
Debt issued                                        2,878,000       1,901,000       1,962,000         816,000         600,000         450,000
Debt repayment                                    -1,723,000      -2,030,000      -2,734,000      -1,634,000      -1,120,000        -454,000
Preferred stock issued                             1,211,000               0               0               0               0               0
Excess tax benefit from stock based compe              9,000           9,000               0               0               0               0
Dividend paid                                       -161,000        -223,000        -228,000        -162,000        -119,000         -78,000
Other financing activities                            36,000         -98,000         246,000          17,000         -10,000      -1,102,000
Net cash provided by (used for) financing          2,250,000        -441,000        -754,000        -963,000        -649,000      -1,184,000

Effect of exchange rate changes                      -24,000         -39,000          -7,000           9,000          -4,000          -2,000
Net change in cash                                   440,000          42,000         -56,000         287,000         129,000        -218,000
Cash at beginning of period                        1,437,000       1,877,000       1,919,000       1,863,000       2,153,000       1,542,000
Cash at end of period                              1,877,000       1,919,000       1,863,000       2,150,000       2,282,000       1,324,000

Free Cash Flow
Operating cash flow                                1,674,000       1,582,000         870,000         701,000         217,000         326,000
Capital expenditure                               -1,219,000      -1,180,000      -1,125,000        -596,000        -768,000        -686,000
Free cash flow                                       455,000         402,000        -255,000         105,000        -551,000        -360,000
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________




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Average to Current P/E Ratios
              (ARNC)     Arconic Inc.

                               2014    2015    2016    2017    2018

          Annual Earnings:     0.00   -0.93   -2.31   -0.28    1.29
Average Price During Year:    25.08   19.16   25.96   22.34

                P/E Ratio:   250.78   20.60   11.24   79.79    0.00

 Average 5-Year P/E Ratio  =  72.48
             Current Price =  28.97

Previous 5 Quarter Earnings:   0.32    0.44    0.39   -0.27    0.21

          Current Annualized (Last Four Quarters) Earnings =   0.33
                                                           ________
                                 Average PE / Current PE =     0.83
                                                           --------

                                      ...a number above 1.00 is good
                                                1.00 or below is bad


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Standard & Poor's

S&P Stock Report (Requires Adobe Acrobat Reader)



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Management's Discussion of Results of Operations Excerpts

Click Here for Management's Discussion Excerpts



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Channeling Potential

 
The summary below includes a value for `Degree,' which refers on a
scale of 1 to 10 the range of a channel in the period under consi-
deration compared to the total range of price movement. It also looks
for the last closing price to be within the channel, otherwise zeroed.
The `Index' is the `Degree' weighted for volatility.  Generally, the
the higher the index, the more suitable is the stock for trading as
a `rolling stock' between channel high and low points.

Results for ARCONIC INC.:
Symbol? ARNC
Total Months Available:  68
       Months in Cycle?   4

Months Covered by Periods:  12

Period 1           Period 2          Period 3
   H1      L1        H2      L2        H3      L3
  21.74   15.63     26.40   18.43     29.55   23.15

RANGE   =  29.55  TO   15.63            Close =  28.91
CHANNEL =  23.15  TO   21.74           Degree =   1
Volatility =   4.88%                    Index =   0
Channel Chart



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MACD Histogram Divergence

The theory is that connecting the two most recent peaks or valleys of the MACD histogram will signal the direction of the next major move.



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Intraday Chart

2 Days:



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Val Idea

2 out of 12 favorable, (negative opinion.)

Val Idea
Val Idea


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Stock Consultant

Stock Consultant Stock Consultant


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Point & Figure Chart

P & F Chart


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Wall Street Analyzer



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Marketspace Chart

Marketspace Chart



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Time Series Forecast

Time Series 1 Time Series 2


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Neural Network Prediction

"Neurostock" can only track long trades. Therefore its performance, as tracked by itself on stocks which are consistently falling, may not appear as good as it could if each "sell" signal were a "short sale."

Neural Chart
Heading
Neural Trades Neural Prediction



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Ultimate Trading Systems

2 out of 3 of the ultimate systems favor an upmove.


System Below:
Short term outlook: Positive: Bright Green, Negative: Bright Red
Long term outlook: Postive: Dark Green, Negative: Dark Red.




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Recommendation

Decision Weighting Factors
FactorsWeighted Points
News + 1
Comparison + 1
Industry + 1
Bond Issue 0
Zenith Index - 1
Non-GAAP vs. GAAP Earnings - 1
Cash Flow - 1
Average to Current P/E - 1
Ratios + 1
Intrinsic Value DCF 0
Fair Value Estimator - 1
Projected Earnings + 1
Research Reports + 1
Analysts + 1
Executive Perquisites - 1
Insider Activity - 1
Institutional Activity - 1
Management Reporting + 1
Short Interest + 1
Sentiment + 1
Standard & Poor's - 1
MACD Histogram Divergence + 1
Val Idea - 1
Stock Consultant - 1
Point & Figure + 1
Wall Street Analyzer + 1
Marketspace Chart + 1
Time Series Chart - 1
Neural Network - 1
Stock Options + 1
Ultimate Trading Systems + 1
Total + 3
Place 1,020 shares of Arconic Inc. (ARNC) on the Active List.