09-23-2018: American Outdoor Brands Corporation (AOBC): Gun Sales Taper Off

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Recommendation

American Outdoor Brands Corporation

We confess that when we first saw the name of this company, we thought of an outdoor billboard advertising agency. In fact, this is the Smith & Wesson gun manufacturer under a new name. American Outdoor Brands (AOBC) is primarily the manufactuter of Smith & Wesson guns. Beside that, it has other products related to the defense industry, such as handcuffs, suppressors, stuff that goes with hunting and fishing, field kits, survival gear, knives, apparel, tree saws and flashlights, and stuff that goes with hunting as the company tries to emphasize its connection with the "great outdoors."

Gun manufacturers have been under pressure. Even President Trump whose campaign was financed partially by Russian money laundered through the NRA, has occasionally spoke out for the need for greater gun regulation. That gave rise to what has been dubbed the "Trump Slump" in gun sales as recently as 2018.

The 200-year old Remington Arms Co. filed for bankruptcy recently. Other gun manufacturers have been under pressure and many are watching the largest, Sturm Ruger, for any hopeful signs (and getting them of late.)

The groups involved with the Parkland, Florida shootings have been particularly effective in going after the gun lobby, including starting several lawsuits against manufacturers including American Outdoor Brands. For its part, AOBC has been emphasizing gun safety, donating to charities and causes, and trying to become more involved in communities. Pressure on it comes not only from Parkland, but from institutional stockholders, especially Blackrock, but also First Street and others, and pension funds, and even banks like Citibank. Also involved in boycotting is the Catholic Church.

So with the rise in violence and increased defense spending, gun maker stocks are not a slam dunk. We frankly hoped to find a short sale candidate in this stock as it had a real earnings slump in 2017. But the company is optimistic for a recovery already underway, and has a recent gap-up stock chart which now appears to be leveling off.

Institutions are skeptical and net sellers, but Dimensional Fund Advisors is among big holders which is a good sign for the stock.

Researchers are very negative, but analysts are positive. Standard & Poor's likes the stock; Market Grader does not. The Zenith Index is very unacceptable. There has been significant recent insider buying, very unusual for American stocks, but only by one officer.

All in all, we have to rate this stock as a buy with further upside risk, but it would not be one of the stronger stocks to resist an overall market turndown. Recent performance looks a bit "toppy." 



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Zenith Index

Under current market conditions, a Zenith Index Score of 1.20 or above is required for a positive rating on this factor. 1.21 -1.30 is considered acceptable, 1.30-1.40 is considered strong and
> 1.40 is considered exceptionally strong. Accounting statements in this section often contain mistakes, especially in earlier years' totals, but data is deemed sufficient for us to give a rating. More accurate financial statements follow in the next section.

American Outdoor Brands Corporation (AOBC)                Exchange: Nasdaq
2100 Roosevelt Avenue
Springfield, MA 01104            Sector: Industrials
United States                    Industry: Aerospace & Defense

American Outdoor Brands Corporation designs, manufactures, and sells
firearms worldwide. The company's Firearms segment offers handguns, long
guns, handcuffs, suppressors, and other firearm-related products under
the Smith & Wesson, M&P, Performance Center, Gemtech, and
Thompson/Center Arms brands. It also sells parts purchased through third
parties; operates a private law enforcement training facility; and
provides manufacturing services to other businesses under the Smith &
Wesson and Smith & Wesson Precision Components brands. This segment
sells its products to gun enthusiasts, collectors, hunters, sportsmen,
competitive shooters, individuals desiring home and personal protection,
law enforcement and security agencies and officers, and military
agencies. The company's Outdoor Products & Accessories segment offers
reloading, gunsmithing, and gun cleaning supplies; stainless steel
cutting tools and accessories; flashlights, tree saws, and related
trimming accessories; shooting supplies, rests, and other related
accessories; apparel; vault accessories; laser grips and laser sights;
and a range of products for survival and emergency preparedness, as well
as field rests, knives, gun vises, hearing protection products, camping
and survival gears, and case tumblers. It provides its products under
the Caldwell, Wheeler, Tipton, Frankford Arsenal, Smith & Wesson, M&P,
Thompson/Center, Lockdown, Hooyman, BOG-POD, Golden Rod, Non-Typical,
Crimson Trace, Imperial, Schrade, Old Timer, Bubba Blade, UST, and
KeyGear brands. The company markets its products through dealers,
retailers, in-store retail channels, and range operations; social and
electronic media; in-store retail merchandising systems and strategies;
and Websites and online retail stores. The company was formerly known as
Smith & Wesson Holding Corporation and changed its name to American
Outdoor Brands Corporation in January 2017. The company was founded in
1852 and is based in Springfield, Massachusetts.

Last Trade:  15.71                           52-Week Range:  16.50 -   8.32
Employees: 1,994                             Avg.Volume:   1,637,109 Shares

Corporate Governance:
Pillar scores are Audit: 1; Board: 5; Shareholder Rights: 3; Compensation: 2.
         (A lower number means less governance risk.)

EPS:  0.55    Dividend Amount: $ 0.00          Yield:  0.00%
             Ex-Dividend Date: N/A             Payout Ratio:   0.00

Key Statistics:

    Trailing P/E:  28.79              Forward P/E (est.):  20.19
                                           Target Price:  15.42

Qrtly Stock Price Growth (yoy):   2.55%               Beta:   0.36
Qrtly S&P Index   Growth (yoy):   7.60%        Short Ratio:   0.98%
    Qrtly Revenue Growth (yoy):  17.39%         Shares Out:  54390000
   Qrtly Earnings Growth (yoy):   0.00%

          Book Value:   7.85                    Debt/Equity:  45.62%
    Price/Book Value:   2.01        Operating Profit Margin:   7.30%
         Price/Sales:   1.39                  Profit Margin:   4.85%
         Market Cap:     856,627,000       Return on Equity:   7.33%
    Enterprise Value:   1,000,000,000      Return on Assets:   3.74%

    Operating Cash Flow:    106,770,000
         Free Cash Flow:     88,900,000



Annual Income Statement:                          (All numbers in thousands)
  Period Ending                             04/30/2018   4/30/2017   4/30/2016

  Total Revenue                                606,850     903,188     722,908
  Cost of Revenue                              410,598     523,216     429,096
  Gross Profit                                 196,252     379,972     293,812

Operating Expenses:
  Research & Development                        11,361      10,238      10,005
  Selling, General & Administrative            156,574     161,295     126,964
  Non-Recurring Expenses                             0           0           0
  Other Operating Expenses                           0           0           0
  Total Operating Expenses                     578,533     694,749     566,065

Operating Income or Loss                        28,317     208,439     156,843

Income from Continuing Operations:
  Total Other Income/Expenses Net              -10,700     -17,133     -11,750
  Earnings Before Interest & Taxes              28,317                208,439  E
arnings Before Interest & Taxes             156,843
  Interest Expense                             -11,168      -8,581     -10,628
  Income Before Taxes                           17,617     191,306     145,093
  Income Tax Expense                            -2,511      63,452      51,135
  Minority Interest                                  0           0           0


Net Income from Continuing Op.s                 20,128     127,854      93,958

Non-recurring Events:
  Discontinued Operations                            0           0           0
  Extraordinary Items                                0           0           0
  Effect of Accounting Changes                       0           0           0
  Other Items                                        0           0           0
  Net Income                                    20,128     127,854      93,958
  Preferred Stock & Other Adjustments                0           0           0

Net Income Avail to Common Shares               20,128     127,854      93,958



Annual Cash Flow Statement:                   (All numbers in thousands)
  Period Ending                         04/30/2018     4/30/2017     4/30/2016

  Net Income                                20,128       127,854        93,958

Operating Activities:
  Depreciation                              50,975        49,295        38,537
  Adjustments to Net Income                 -1,283         2,395         2,791
  Changes in Accounts Recv'bls              51,380       -40,709        -2,254
  Changes in Liabilities                   -20,998         1,233        13,048
  Changes in Investories                   -16,971       -22,171          -804
  Changes in other Oper'g Acts             -28,536        18,506        20,909

Total Cash Flow f Operations                61,643       123,576       168,557

Investing Activities:
  Capital Exenditures                      -18,490       -34,876       -30,602
  Investments                                    0             0             0
  Other Cash Flows fr Investing                  0         2,841            84

Total Cash Flows from Investing            -42,164      -243,742       -31,992

Financing Activities:
  Dividends Paid                                 0             0             0
  Sale of Purchase of Stock                      0             0             0
  Net Borrowings                           -31,946        43,142          -321
  Other Cash Flows fr Financing             -2,435        -5,096            84

Total Cash Flows from Financing            -32,168        -9,564        12,492

  Effect of Exchange Rate Chg                    0             0             0

Change in Cash & Cash Equiv.               -12,689      -129,730       149,057



Annual Balance Sheets:                              (All Numbers in Thousands)
  Period Ending                          04/30/2018     4/30/2017     4/30/2016
Current Assets:
  Cash & Cash Equivalents                    48,860        61,549       191,279
  Short Term Investments                          0             0             0
  Net Receivables                            61,258       119,087        59,856
  Inventory                                 153,353       131,682        77,789
  Other Current Assets                            0             0             0
  Total Current Assets                      263,471       312,318       328,924

  Long-Term Investments                       2,100           572             0
  Property, Plant & Equipt                  159,125       149,685       135,405
  Goodwill                                  191,287       169,017        76,357
  Intangible Assets                         112,760       141,317        62,924
  Accumulated Amortization                        0             0             0
  Other Assets                                9,424         9,004        11,586
  Deferred LT Asset Charges                       0             0             0

Total Assets                                745,060       788,036       619,503

Current Liabilities:
  Accounts Payable                           33,617        53,447        45,513
  Current Portion LT Debt                   187,035       217,979       174,319
  Other Current Liabilities                   7,336         5,634        12,089
  Total Current Liabilities                 227,988       277,060        231,921

  Long Term Debt                             33,617        53,447        45,513
  Other Liabilities                         187,035       217,979       174,319
  Deferred LT Liab. Charges                   7,336         5,634        12,089
  Minority Interest                               0             0             0
  Negative Goodwill                               0             0             0

Total Liabilities                           450,218       520,689       421,016

Stockholder Equity:
  Misc. Options, Warrants                         0             0             0
  Redeemable Preferred Stock                      0             0             0
  Preferred Stock                                 0             0             0
  Common Stock                                   72            72            72
  Retained Earnings                         389,146       369,164       241,310
  Treasury Stock                           -220,686      -221,939      -173,071
  Capital Surplus                           253,616       245,865       239,505
  Other Stockhohlder Equity                   1,689           436          -748
  Total Stockholder Equity                  422,148       393,162       307,816

Net Tangible Assets                         118,101        82,828       168,535



American Outdoor Brands Corporation (AOBC)  [Indices near +3.0, near zero,
                                            or < zero bear special attention.]
P/E Ratio Tests:
P/E Ratio < 28?            0.9726          P/E Ratio > 5?             1.0000
P/E Ratio Vs Growth Rate:  0.0000          Forward P/E Ratio < 28?    1.3868
Price/Sales Ratio < 2.3?   1.6547          Inventory/Sales < 5%?      0.1979
Sales < $1 Billion?        1.6479          Operating Margin < 7.5%?   1.0274

Balance Sheet Tests:
Debt/Equity < 0.40?        0.8768          Long-Term Debt Service:    1.6352
LTD Being Reduced?         0.0000          Short-Term Debt Service:  -2.5355
Current Ratio > 2?         0.5778          Working Capital >= 1.5?    1.3153
Leverage Ratio < 20%?      0.2923          Debt/Assets < 1?           3.0000
Quick Ratio > 1?           3.0000          Inventory Turnover > 1?    0.2651
Share Equity Increase:     2.3510          Market Cap.< 1.5 Billion?  1.7511
                                           Intangibles < 3% Assets?   0.0735
Income Tests:
Profit Margin < 7.5%?      0.6467          EPS Annual Growth > 10%?   0.6352
Dividend Yield > 2.0%?     0.0000          EPS 3-yr Growth > 15?      0.7002
Enterprise Value/Revenue   1.4118          EPS Growth Consistent?     0.0000
Enterprise Value/EBITDA:   3.0000          Collection < 45 days?      1.2213
EPS Qrtly Growth > 10%?    0.0000          Gross Pft/Cur. LTD > 1?    1.0493
                                           Borrowing Int. Rate < 6%? -0.9687
Stock Performance Tests:
Volatility > 25%?          1.9830          % Held by Insiders < 5%?   2.3585
Beta > 1.25?               0.2880          % Held by Institut. < 50?  0.7310
50 Da MA > 200 Da MA?      0.0974          % Held by Institut. > 30?  2.2800
52-Wk Change vs. S&P 500:  0.1466          Short Ratio > 5?           0.1960
Price/Book Value < 3?      1.4990          Short % of Float > 20?     0.1990
Return on Assets > 17%?    0.2200          Average Volume > 100,000?  3.0000

Cash Flow Tests:
Oper. C.F. > Lever'd C.F:  1.2010          Positive Free Cash Flow?   3.0000
Positive Oper. Cash Flow?  3.0000          Price to C.F.Ratio < 14?:  2.2223
                                           Cash Flow / Assets > 10%?  1.8250

AOBC   American Outdoor Brands Corporation Overall Zenith Index:      1.0705


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Financial Statements

AMERICAN OUTDOOR BRANDS CORP  (AOBC)        INCOME STATEMENT

Fiscal year ends in April.                           2014-04         2015-04         2016-04         2017-04         2018-04             TTM           

Revenue                                          626,620,032     551,862,016     722,908,032     903,187,968     606,849,984     616,662,016
Cost of revenue                                  367,515,008     356,936,000     429,096,000     527,916,000     411,097,984     409,120,000
Gross profit                                     259,104,992     194,926,000     293,812,000     375,272,000     195,752,000     207,542,000


Operating expenses
Research and development                           5,648,000       6,943,000      10,005,000      10,238,000      11,361,000      11,385,000
Sales, General and administrative                102,469,000      98,355,000     125,164,000     165,095,008     157,343,008     152,432,992
Total operating expenses                         108,117,000     105,298,000     135,168,992     175,332,992     168,704,000     163,818,000

Operating income                                 150,988,000      89,628,000     158,643,008     199,939,008      27,048,000      43,724,000
Interest Expense                                  12,261,000      11,330,000      13,704,000       8,581,000      11,168,000      10,778,000
Other income (expense)                            -2,005,000         434,000         154,000         -52,000       1,737,000         421,000
Income before taxes                              136,722,000      78,732,000     145,092,992     191,306,000      17,617,000      33,367,000
Provision for income taxes                        48,095,000      28,905,000      51,135,000      63,452,000      -2,511,000       3,429,000
Net income from continuing operations             88,627,000      49,827,000      93,958,000     127,854,000      20,128,000      29,938,000
Net income from discontinuing ops                    678,000        -214,000               0               0               0               0
Net income                                        89,305,000      49,613,000      93,958,000     127,854,000      20,128,000      29,938,000
Net income available to common shareholders       89,305,000      49,613,000      93,958,000     127,854,000      20,128,000      29,938,000

Earnings per share
Basic                                                   1.52            0.92            1.72            2.29            0.37            0.55 
Diluted                                                 1.49            0.90            1.68            2.25            0.37            0.55 

Weighted average shares outstanding
Basic                                             58,668,000      53,988,000      54,765,000      55,930,000      54,061,000      54,171,000
Diluted                                           60,114,000      55,228,000      55,965,000      56,891,000      54,834,000      55,090,500

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


AMERICAN OUTDOOR BRANDS CORP  (AOBC)        BALANCE SHEET

Fiscal year ends in April.                           2014-04         2015-04         2016-04         2017-04         2018-04             

Assets

Current assets

Cash

Total cash                                        68,860,000      42,222,000     191,279,008      61,549,000      48,860,000

Receivables                                       55,890,000      55,280,000      57,792,000     108,444,000      56,676,000
Inventories                                       86,742,000      76,895,000      77,789,000     131,682,000     153,352,992
Deferred income taxes                             17,094,000      16,373,000               0               0               0
Prepaid expenses                                   5,958,000       6,306,000       4,307,000       6,123,000       6,893,000
Other current assets                               4,627,000               0       2,064,000      10,643,000       4,582,000
Total current assets                             239,171,008     197,076,000     333,231,008     318,440,992     270,364,000

Non-current assets

Property, plant and equipment
Gross property, plant and equipment              213,578,000     250,507,008     277,542,016     320,223,008     357,670,016
Accumulated Depreciation                         -93,138,000    -116,663,000    -142,136,992    -170,538,000    -198,544,992
Net property, plant and equipment                120,440,000     133,844,000     135,404,992     149,684,992     159,124,992

Goodwill                                                   0      75,426,000      76,357,000     169,016,992     191,287,008
Intangible assets                                  3,425,000      73,768,000      62,924,000     141,316,992     112,760,000
Other long-term assets                            18,467,000      14,878,000      11,586,000       9,576,000      11,524,000
Total non-current assets                         142,332,000     297,916,000     286,272,000     469,595,008     474,696,000

Total assets                                     381,503,008     494,992,000     619,502,976     788,035,968     745,059,968 

Liabilities and stockholders' equity

Liabilities

Current liabilities
Short-term debt                                            0               0       6,300,000       6,300,000       6,300,000
Capital leases                                       469,000               0       1,455,000       1,022,000         431,000
Accounts payable                                  37,688,000      32,360,000      45,513,000      53,447,000      33,617,000
Taxes payable                                      5,359,000       9,505,000      11,891,000       8,484,000       4,446,000
Accrued liabilities                               34,903,000      29,083,000      41,648,000      64,414,000      48,864,000
Other current liabilities                         14,124,000      10,063,000      15,785,000      17,578,000       7,024,000
Total current liabilities                         92,543,000      81,011,000     122,592,000     151,244,992     100,682,000

Non-current liabilities
Long-term debt                                   100,000,000     175,000,000     166,564,000     210,656,992     180,304,000
Deferred taxes liabilities                        11,418,000      33,905,000      12,161,000      25,620,000      12,895,000
Other long-term liabilities                       10,719,000      10,706,000      10,370,000       7,352,000      29,031,000
Total non-current liabilities                    122,137,000     219,611,008     189,095,008     243,628,992     222,230,000

Total liabilities                                214,680,000     300,622,016     311,687,008     394,873,984     322,912,000 

Stockholders' equity

Common stock                                          69,000          70,000          72,000          72,000          72,000
Additional paid-in capital                       211,224,992     219,198,000     239,504,992     245,864,992     253,616,000
Retained earnings                                 97,739,000     147,352,000     241,310,000     369,164,000     389,145,984
Treasury stock                                  -142,283,008    -172,323,008    -172,323,008    -222,375,008    -222,375,008
Accumulated other comprehensive income                73,000          73,000        -748,000         436,000       1,689,000
Total stockholders' equity                       166,823,008     194,370,000     307,816,000     393,161,984     422,148,000
Total liabilities and stockholders' equity       381,503,008     494,992,000     619,502,976     788,035,968     745,059,968

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


AMERICAN OUTDOOR BRANDS CORP  (AOBC)        Statement of CASH FLOW

Fiscal year ends in April. USD.                      2014-04         2015-04         2016-04         2017-04         2018-04             TTM           

Cash Flows From Operating Activities
Net income                                        89,305,000      49,613,000      93,958,000     127,854,000      20,128,000      29,938,000
Depreciation & amortization                       21,704,000      30,893,000      41,237,000      50,213,000      52,075,000      51,158,000
Investment/asset impairment charges                        0               0               0               0         282,000               0
Deferred income taxes                             -1,463,000       2,341,000      -4,448,000      -7,840,000      -8,775,000     -10,295,000
Stock based compensation                           8,212,000       5,808,000       6,472,000       8,590,000       7,815,000       7,917,000
Change in working capital                        -27,488,000      25,763,000      30,571,000     -56,886,000      -9,277,000      27,249,000
Accounts receivable                               -9,588,000      10,983,000      -2,254,000     -40,709,000      51,380,000      51,118,000
Inventory                                        -23,744,000      25,662,000        -804,000     -22,171,000     -16,971,000      -1,124,000
Prepaid expenses                                  -1,856,000        -569,000       1,999,000      -1,619,000         514,000         384,000
Accounts payable                                   6,468,000      -7,345,000      13,048,000       1,233,000     -20,998,000     -12,167,000
Accrued liabilities                                1,999,000      -7,187,000      14,882,000      20,811,000     -17,263,000      -9,527,000
Income taxes payable                                  10,000         -86,000        -328,000               0               0               0
Other working capital                               -777,000       4,305,000       4,028,000     -14,431,000      -5,939,000      -1,435,000
Other non-cash items                                 -64,000         389,000         767,000       1,645,000        -605,000         807,000
Net cash provided by operating activities         90,206,000     114,807,000     168,556,992     123,576,000      61,643,000     106,774,000

Cash Flows From Investing Activities
Investments in property, plant, and equipmen     -62,551,000     -28,199,000     -30,602,000     -34,876,000     -18,490,000     -20,718,000
Property, plant, and equipment reductions            101,000       1,695,000          61,000       2,776,000           6,000           7,000
Acquisitions, net                                          0    -159,242,000      -1,220,000    -211,068,992     -23,120,000               0
Purchases of intangibles                            -243,000        -392,000        -315,000        -638,000        -560,000        -653,000
Other investing activities                            77,000          81,000          84,000          65,000               0     -23,120,000
Net cash used for investing activities           -62,616,000    -186,056,992     -31,992,000    -243,742,000     -42,164,000     -44,484,000

Cash Flows From Financing Activities
Debt issued                                      101,584,000     175,000,000     105,000,000     100,000,000     150,000,000     125,000,000
Debt repayment                                   -45,739,000    -100,596,000    -105,321,000     -56,858,000    -181,946,000    -206,946,000
Common stock repurchased                        -115,887,000     -30,040,000               0     -50,052,000               0               0
Other financing activities                           825,000         248,000      12,813,000      -2,654,000        -222,000       1,522,000
Net cash provided by (used for) financing        -59,217,000      44,612,000      12,492,000      -9,564,000     -32,168,000     -80,424,000

Net change in cash                               -31,627,000     -26,638,000     149,056,992    -129,730,000     -12,689,000     -18,134,000
Cash at beginning of period                      100,487,000      68,860,000      42,222,000     191,279,008      61,549,000      43,372,000
Cash at end of period                             68,860,000      42,222,000     191,279,008      61,549,000      48,860,000      25,238,000

Free Cash Flow
Operating cash flow                               90,206,000     114,807,000     168,556,992     123,576,000      61,643,000     106,774,000
Capital expenditure                              -62,794,000     -28,591,000     -30,917,000     -35,514,000     -19,050,000     -21,371,000
Free cash flow                                    27,412,000      86,216,000     137,640,000      88,062,000      42,593,000      85,403,000
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________





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Average to Current P/E Ratios
              (AOBC)     American Outdoor Brands Corp.

                               2013    2014    2015    2016    2017

          Annual Earnings:     1.49    0.90    1.68    2.25    0.37
Average Price During Year:     9.99   12.87   15.10   25.10   19.33

                P/E Ratio:     6.70   14.30    8.99   11.16   52.25

 Average 5-Year P/E Ratio  =  18.68
             Current Price =  15.75

Previous 5 Quarter Earnings:  -0.04    0.06    0.21    0.14    0.14

           Current Annualized (Last Four Quarters) Earnings =   0.49
                                                           ________
                                 Average PE / Current PE =     0.58
                                                           --------

                                      ...a number above 1.00 is good
                                                1.00 or below is bad


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Financial Ratios

. . . . . . . . . . . . Lowest to Highest, Compared to Industry



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Market Grader

900
901 902 903 904 905 906 907 908 909 910



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Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Intrinsic Value by Discounted Cash Flow Method:

Intrinsic Value



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Fair Value Estimator

Fair Value Estimate:

Fair ValueFair Value



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Projected Earnings

Earnings Estimates
Earnings Estimates



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Research Reports

Click Here for Research Reports



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Analysts' Opinions

Analysts' Opinion 1
Analysts' Opinion 1
Analysts' Opinion 1
Analysts' Opinion 1
Analysts' Opinion 2



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Insider Activity

Insiders Chart Insider Trades
Insider Trades
Executive Compensation Executive Compensation



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Institutional Activity

Institutional Orders to Buy or Sell:

institutions 1
Ownership:

institutions 2


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Sentiment

sentiment

Zenith uses the "sentiment" score above or below 50 to award a positive or negative point in the Decision Matrix.

sentiment sentiment sentiment



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Short Interest Ratio

As the short interest rises as a percentage of average daily share volume (Days to Cover), this is considered a measure of negative sentiment. Similarly, a decrease in that percentage is considered positive sentiment.

short interest short interest


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Standard & Poor's

S&P Stock Report (Requires Adobe Acrobat Reader)



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Management's Discussion of Results of Operations Excerpts

Click Here for Management's Discussion Excerpts



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Channeling Potential

 
The summary below includes a value for `Degree,' which refers on a
scale of 1 to 10 the range of a channel in the period under consi-
deration compared to the total range of price movement. It also looks
for the last closing price to be within the channel, otherwise zeroed.
The `Index' is the `Degree' weighted for volatility.  Generally, the
the higher the index, the more suitable is the stock for trading as
a `rolling stock' between channel high and low points.

Results for AMERICAN OUTDOOR BRANDS:
Symbol? AOBC
Total Months Available:  25
       Months in Cycle?   4

Months Covered by Periods:  12

Period 1           Period 2          Period 3
   H1      L1        H2      L2        H3      L3
  16.50   11.70     12.77    8.32     15.95    9.27

RANGE   =  16.50  TO    8.32            Close =  15.71
CHANNEL =  12.77  TO   11.70           Degree =   1
Volatility =   6.81%                    Index =   0
Channel Chart



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MACD Histogram Divergence

The theory is that connecting the two most recent peaks or valleys of the MACD histogram will signal the direction of the next major move.



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Intraday Chart

2 Days:



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Val Idea

3 out of 8 favorable, (negative opinion.)

Val Idea
Val Idea


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Stock Consultant

Stock Consultant Stock Consultant


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Point & Figure Chart

P & F Chart


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Wall Street Analyzer




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Marketspace Chart

Marketspace Chart



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Time Series Forecast

Time Series 1 Time Series 2


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Neural Network Prediction

"Neurostock" can only track long trades. Therefore its performance, as tracked by itself on stocks which are consistently falling, may not appear as good as it could if each "sell" signal were a "short sale."

Neural Chart
Heading
Neural Trades Neural Prediction



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Ultimate Trading Systems

2 out of 3 of the ultimate systems favor an upmove.


System Below:
Short term outlook: Positive: Bright Green, Negative: Bright Red
Long term outlook: Postive: Dark Green, Negative: Dark Red.




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Recommendation

Decision Weighting Factors
FactorsWeighted Points
News - 1
Comparison - 1
Industry + 1
Bond Issue + 1
Zenith Index - 1
Non-GAAP vs. GAAP Earnings + 1
Cash Flow - 1
Average to Current P/E - 1
Ratios + 1
Market Grader - 1
Intrinsic Value DCF 0
Fair Value Estimator + 1
Projected Earnings + 1
Research Reports - 1
Analysts + 1
Executive Perquisites - 1
Insider Activity + 1
Institutional Activity - 1
Management Reporting + 1
Short Interest + 1
Sentiment + 1
Standard & Poor's + 1
MACD Histogram Divergence + 1
Val Idea - 1
Stock Consultant - 1
Point & Figure + 1
Wall Street Analyzer + 1
Marketspace Chart + 1
Time Series Chart - 1
Neural Network - 1
Stock Options + 1
Ultimate Trading Systems + 1
Total + 5
Place 1,900 shares of American Outdoor Brands Corp. ( AOBC ) on the Active List.