11-18-2017: Alaska Air Group, Inc. (ALK): Mega Merger with Virgin

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Recommendation

Alaska Air Group, Inc.

The airline group as a whole is seeing the "fat years" come to an end as costs increase. Fuel costs are a major factor, and oil prices a slowly rising once again. During this period, Alaska Airline Group, Inc. (ALK) made a major expansion by greating extending its routes internally and also doing a $2-1/2 billion acquisition of Virgin Airlines, greatly increasing its size. The Zenith Index and financial ratios suggest to us this wasn't too much of a burden on the company's financial balance sheets. The merger had been studied thoroughly by ALK, as indicated on its website where talk thereof dominated, and there were to be had synchrony economies of scale. However, all airlines must deal with a host of factors, governmental agencies regarding routes, safety, landing rights, expense of adding facilities in new airports, union negotiations, politics, in addition to fuel costs.

ALK's chart appears to be one of the weakest among is competitors, suggesting investors did not necessarily approve of the merger advantages. The chart pattern makes for what appears to be nice trading opportunities. The company pays a "solid" 2% dividend. Some strength is showing around the next ex-dividend date.

Expansion of routes throughout the West Coast, particularly in California, is greatly increasing prospects. But ALK is considered a "low cost" airline for passenger and baggage rates, and several smaller "low cost" airlines have suffered recently to the extent of going out of business. ALK has picked up some of their routes.

Checking on the "updatedness" of researchers who offer a company "profile" there was much banter about establishing regular flights to Cuba earlier in the year by ALK. This underscored the rate of expansion, finding partners to offer connecting flights to Asia and Europe, greatly widening the scope and reach of ALK. But were they "bridges too far?" Cuba flights will be completely abandoned by ALK by Jan. 22nd, 2018. Did ALK bite off more than it could chew? Some say, "yes," as ALK has begun missing analysts' targets for earnings. Its flights grew by 72% this year. Its projected earnings are lower. Reasons for abandoning Cuba appeared to be absence of connecting flight availability, and concentration upon domestic markets, not politics. But the company is also concentrating heavily upon new routes to Latin America.

A shortage of pilots has troubled smaller airlines in the U.S. to the extent of putting at least one out of business, Horizon Air, where ALK took over some of those routes. A former CEO of Horizon began running ALK. One writer asks, "Has ALK lost its mojo?" Bradley Tilden is now the CEO of ALK, reflecting management changeovers. Judging from the company website, we think not, but there is no CEO Letter to Shareholders or glitzy annual report, and instead the more and more common reliance upon "conference calls." This, we regard as a bad sign for shareholders, although it may not impact business.

A lot seems to be riding upon how fast ALK can integrate with Virgin, as certain characteristics of both companies differed in terms of service and customer experience, deals with airplane manufacturers, and employee relations.

Institutions and researchers are neutral to slightly negative on the stock. It might be a good contrarian trading opportunity. The stock appears "oversold" in relation to stocks of its competitors. Analysts are a bit more favorable.

The stock appears to be in a major downtrend, having broken out of a former trading range to the downside. This is hurting our overall rating to the extent of making it more of a "sell" candidate for the moment, at least.



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Zenith Index

Under current market conditions, a Zenith Index Score of 1.20 or above is required for a positive rating on this factor. 1.21 -1.30 is considered acceptable, 1.30-1.40 is considered strong and
> 1.40 is considered exceptionally strong. Accounting statements in this section often contain mistakes, especially in earlier years' totals, but data is deemed sufficient for us to give a rating. More accurate financial statements follow in the next section.

Alaska Air Group, Inc. (ALK)                              Exchange: NYSE
19300 International Boulevard
Seattle, WA 98188                Sector: Services
United States                    Industry:Regional Airlines

Alaska Air Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides passengers
and cargo air transportation services primarily in the United States.
The company operates through three segments: Mainline, Regional, and
Horizon. It has a network of approximately 1,200 daily flights to 118
destinations across the United States, Mexico, Canada, Costa Rica, and
Cuba. The company was founded in 1932 and is based in Seattle, Washington.

Last Trade:  61.68                           52-Week Range: 101.43 -  61.10
Employees: 19,214                            Avg.Volume:   1,831,503 Shares

Corporate Governance:
Pillar scores are Audit: 1; Board: 4; Shareholder Rights: 1; Compensation: 5.
         (A lower number means less governance risk.)

EPS:  6.15    Dividend Amount: $%203.00          Yield:  1.94%
             Ex-Dividend Date: Aug 18, 2017    Payout Ratio:  18.89

Key Statistics:

    Trailing P/E:  10.48              Forward P/E (est.):  10.05
                                           Target Price:  83.36

Qrtly Stock Price Growth (yoy): -21.78%               Beta:   0.39
Qrtly S&P Index   Growth (yoy):  40.70%        Short Ratio:   4.27%
    Qrtly Revenue Growth (yoy):  17.91%         Shares Out:  123050000
   Qrtly Earnings Growth (yoy):   0.00%

          Book Value:  26.42                    Debt/Equity:  85.97%
    Price/Book Value:   2.44        Operating Profit Margin:  21.29%
         Price/Sales:   1.14                  Profit Margin:  11.02%
         Market Cap:   7,929,000,000       Return on Equity:  25.97%
    Enterprise Value:   8,500,000,000      Return on Assets:  10.41%

    Operating Cash Flow:  1,570,000,000
         Free Cash Flow:  1,000,000,000



Annual Income Statement:                          (All numbers in thousands)
  Period Ending                             12/31/2016  12/31/2015  12/31/2014

  Total Revenue                              5,931,000   5,598,000   5,368,000
  Cost of Revenue                            1,908,000   1,935,000   2,325,000
  Gross Profit                               4,023,000   3,663,000   3,043,000

Operating Expenses:
  Research & Development                             0           0           0
  Selling, General & Administrative          2,194,000   2,013,000   1,817,000
  Non-Recurring Expenses                       117,000      32,000     -30,000
  Other Operating Expenses                     363,000     320,000     294,000
  Total Operating Expenses                           0           0           0

Operating Income or Loss                     1,349,000   1,298,000     962,000

Income from Continuing Operations:
  Total Other Income/Expenses Net               26,000      22,000      41,000
  Earnings Before Interest & Taxes           1,375,000   1,320,000   1,003,000
  Interest Expense                              30,000       8,000      28,000
  Income Before Taxes                        1,345,000   1,312,000     975,000
  Income Tax Expense                           531,000     464,000     370,000
  Minority Interest                                  0           0           0

Net Income from Continuing Op.s                814,000     848,000     605,000

Non-recurring Events:
  Discontinued Operations                            0           0           0
  Extraordinary Items                                0           0           0
  Effect of Accounting Changes                       0           0           0
  Other Items                                        0           0           0
  Net Income                                   814,000     848,000     605,000
  Preferred Stock & Other Adjustments                0           0           0

Net Income Avail to Common Shares              814,000     848,000     605,000



Annual Cash Flow Statement:                   (All numbers in thousands)
  Period Ending                         12/31/2016    12/31/2015    12/31/2014

  Net Income                               814,000       848,000       605,000

Operating Activities:
  Depreciation                             363,000       320,000       294,000
  Adjustments to Net Income                 26,000        25,000         6,000
  Changes in Accounts Recv'bls             -46,000        47,000      -110,000
  Changes in Liabilities                   115,000       131,000        89,000
  Changes in Investories                         0             0             0
  Changes in other Oper'g Acts             114,000       213,000       146,000

Total Cash Flow f Operations             1,386,000     1,584,000     1,030,000

Investing Activities:
  Capital Exenditures                     -678,000      -831,000      -694,000
  Investments                                2,000      -152,000       143,000
  Other Cash Flows fr Investing         -1,946,000        53,000        10,000

Total Cash Flows from Investing         -2,622,000      -930,000      -541,000

Financing Activities:
  Dividends Paid                          -136,000      -102,000       -68,000
  Sale of Purchase of Stock               -193,000      -505,000      -348,000
  Net Borrowings                         1,795,000      -116,000       -68,000
  Other Cash Flows fr Financing             25,000        35,000        10,000

Total Cash Flows from Financing          1,491,000      -688,000      -462,000

  Effect of Exchange Rate Chg                    0             0             0

Change in Cash & Cash Equiv.               255,000       -34,000        27,000



Annual Balance Sheets:                              (All Numbers in Thousands)
  Period Ending                          12/31/2016    12/31/2015    12/31/2014
Current Assets:
  Cash & Cash Equivalents                   328,000        73,000       107,000
  Short Term Investments                  1,252,000     1,255,000     1,110,000
  Net Receivables                           302,000       212,000       259,000
  Inventory                                  47,000        51,000        58,000
  Other Current Assets                      121,000        72,000       105,000
  Total Current Assets                    4,554,000       408,000       529,000

  Long-Term Investments                           0             0             0
  Property, Plant & Equipt                5,666,000     4,802,000     4,299,000
  Goodwill                                1,934,000             0             0
  Intangible Assets                         143,000             0             0
  Accumulated Amortization                        0             0             0
  Other Assets                              169,000        65,000       126,000
  Deferred LT Asset Charges                       0             0             0

Total Assets                              9,962,000     6,530,000     6,064,000

Current Liabilities:
  Accounts Payable                        1,367,000     1,022,000       923,000
  Current Portion LT Debt                   319,000       114,000       117,000
  Other Current Liabilities                 849,000       669,000       631,000
  Total Current Liabilities               2,535,000     1,805,000      1,671,000

  Long Term Debt                          1,367,000     1,022,000       923,000
  Other Liabilities                         319,000       114,000       117,000
  Deferred LT Liab. Charges                 849,000       669,000       631,000
  Minority Interest                               0             0             0
  Negative Goodwill                               0             0             0

Total Liabilities                         7,041,000     3,006,000     3,937,000

Stockholder Equity:
  Misc. Options, Warrants                         0             0             0
  Redeemable Preferred Stock                      0             0             0
  Preferred Stock                                 0             0             0
  Common Stock                                1,000         1,000         1,000
  Retained Earnings                       3,568,000     2,890,000     2,144,000
  Treasury Stock                           -443,000      -250,000        -4,000
  Capital Surplus                           110,000        73,000       296,000
  Other Stockhohlder Equity                -305,000      -303,000      -310,000
  Total Stockholder Equity                2,931,000     2,411,000     2,127,000

Net Tangible Assets                         854,000     2,411,000     2,127,000



Alaska Air Group, Inc. (ALK)                [Indices near +3.0, near zero,
                                            or < zero bear special attention.]
P/E Ratio Tests:
P/E Ratio < 28?            2.6718          P/E Ratio > 5?             1.0000
P/E Ratio Vs Growth Rate:  0.0000          Forward P/E Ratio < 28?    2.7861
Price/Sales Ratio < 2.3?   2.0175          Inventory/Sales < 5%?      3.0000
Sales < $1 Billion?        0.1686          Operating Margin < 7.5%?   0.3523

Balance Sheet Tests:
Debt/Equity < 0.40?        0.4653          Long-Term Debt Service:    1.1043
LTD Being Reduced?        -3.0000          Short-Term Debt Service:   3.0000
Current Ratio > 2?         0.8982          Working Capital >= 1.5?    0.8461
Leverage Ratio < 20%?      0.3443          Debt/Assets < 1?           3.0000
Quick Ratio > 1?           3.0000          Inventory Turnover > 1?    0.0176
Share Equity Increase:     2.3492          Market Cap.< 1.5 Billion?  0.1892
                                           Intangibles < 3% Assets?   0.1439
Income Tests:
Profit Margin < 7.5%?      1.4693          EPS Annual Growth > 10%?   0.1042
Dividend Yield > 2.0%?     1.0309          EPS 3-yr Growth > 15?      0.1115
Enterprise Value/Revenue   1.3373          EPS Growth Consistent?     0.0000
Enterprise Value/EBITDA:   3.0000          Collection < 45 days?      2.4213
EPS Qrtly Growth > 10%?    0.0000          Gross Pft/Cur. LTD > 1?    3.0000
                                           Borrowing Int. Rate < 6%?  3.0000
Stock Performance Tests:
Volatility > 25%?          1.5905          % Held by Insiders < 5%?   3.0000
Beta > 1.25?               0.3120          % Held by Institut. < 50?  0.5499
50 Da MA > 200 Da MA?     -0.4120          % Held by Institut. > 30?  3.0000
52-Wk Change vs. S&P 500: -1.2161          Short Ratio > 5?           0.8540
Price/Book Value < 3?      1.2850          Short % of Float > 20?     0.2210
Return on Assets > 17%?    0.6124          Average Volume > 100,000?  3.0000

Cash Flow Tests:
Oper. C.F. > Lever'd C.F:  1.5700          Positive Free Cash Flow?   3.0000
Positive Oper. Cash Flow?  3.0000          Price to C.F.Ratio < 14?:  3.0000
                                           Cash Flow / Assets > 10%?  3.0000

ALK    Alaska Air Group, Inc.              Overall Zenith Index:      1.3510


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Financial Statements

ALASKA AIR GROUP INC  (ALK)                 INCOME STATEMENT

Fiscal year ends in December.                        2012-12         2013-12         2014-12         2015-12         2016-12             TTM           

Revenue                                        4,656,999,936   5,155,999,744   5,368,000,000   5,598,000,128   5,930,999,808   7,495,000,064
Cost of revenue                                1,960,000,000   2,179,000,064   2,128,999,936   1,935,000,064   1,908,000,000   2,772,999,936
Gross profit                                   2,696,999,936   2,976,999,936   3,239,000,064   3,663,000,064   4,023,000,064   4,721,999,872


Operating expenses
Sales, General and administrative              1,652,999,936   1,591,000,064   1,704,999,936   1,584,999,936   1,734,000,000   2,228,000,000
Depreciation and amortization                    264,000,000     270,000,000     294,000,000     320,000,000     363,000,000     357,000,000
Other operating expenses                         248,000,000     278,000,000     278,000,000     460,000,000     577,000,000     798,000,000
Total operating expenses                       2,164,999,936   2,139,000,064   2,276,999,936   2,364,999,936   2,673,999,872   3,383,000,064

Operating income                                 532,000,000     838,000,000     962,000,000   1,298,000,000   1,348,999,936   1,339,000,064
Interest Expense                                  64,000,000      35,000,000      28,000,000       8,000,000      30,000,000      82,000,000
Other income (expense)                            46,000,000      13,000,000      41,000,000      22,000,000      26,000,000      32,000,000
Income before income taxes                       514,000,000     816,000,000     975,000,000   1,312,000,000   1,344,999,936   1,288,999,936
Provision for income taxes                       198,000,000     308,000,000     370,000,000     464,000,000     531,000,000     514,000,000
Net income from continuing ops                   316,000,000     508,000,000     605,000,000     848,000,000     814,000,000     775,000,000
Net income                                       316,000,000     508,000,000     605,000,000     848,000,000     814,000,000     775,000,000
Net income available to common shareholders      316,000,000     508,000,000     605,000,000     848,000,000     814,000,000     775,000,000

Earnings per share
Basic                                                   2.23            3.63            4.47            6.61            6.59            6.28 
Diluted                                                 2.20            3.58            4.42            6.56            6.54            6.22 

Weighted average shares outstanding
Basic                                            141,416,000     139,910,000     135,444,992     128,373,000     123,557,000     123,446,752
Diluted                                          143,568,000     141,878,000     136,800,992     129,372,000     124,389,000     124,350,000

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


ALASKA AIR GROUP INC  (ALK)                 BALANCE SHEET

Fiscal year ends in December.                        2012-12         2013-12         2014-12         2015-12         2016-12             

Assets

Current assets

Cash

Short-term investments                         1,130,000,000   1,250,000,000   1,110,000,000   1,255,000,064   1,252,000,000
Total cash                                     1,252,000,000   1,330,000,000   1,216,999,936   1,328,000,000   1,580,000,000

Receivables                                      130,000,000     152,000,000     259,000,000     212,000,000     302,000,000
Inventories                                       58,000,000      60,000,000      58,000,000      51,000,000      47,000,000
Deferred income taxes                            148,000,000     113,000,000     117,000,000               0               0
Prepaid expenses                                 123,000,000      95,000,000     105,000,000      72,000,000     121,000,000
Other current assets                              26,000,000      12,000,000               0               0               0
Total current assets                           1,736,999,936   1,762,000,000   1,756,000,000   1,663,000,064   2,050,000,000

Non-current assets

Property, plant and equipment
Gross property, plant and equipment            5,472,000,000   5,960,999,936   6,616,000,000   7,416,000,000   8,595,000,320
Accumulated Depreciation                      -1,863,000,064  -2,068,000,000  -2,316,999,936  -2,614,000,128  -2,928,999,936
Net property, plant and equipment              3,608,999,936   3,892,999,936   4,298,999,808   4,801,999,872   5,665,999,872

Goodwill                                                   0               0               0               0   1,934,000,000
Intangible assets                                          0               0               0               0     143,000,000
Other long-term assets                           159,000,000     183,000,000     126,000,000      68,000,000     169,000,000
Total non-current assets                       3,768,000,000   4,076,000,000   4,424,999,936   4,870,000,128   7,912,000,000

Total assets                                   5,504,999,936   5,838,000,128   6,181,000,192   6,533,000,192   9,962,000,384 

Liabilities and stockholders' equity

Liabilities

Current liabilities
Short-term debt                                  161,000,000     117,000,000     117,000,000     115,000,000     319,000,000
Capital leases                                    18,000,000               0               0               0               0
Accounts payable                                  65,000,000      64,000,000      62,000,000      63,000,000      92,000,000
Accrued liabilities                            1,256,999,936     835,000,000     861,000,000     959,000,000   1,275,000,064
Other current liabilities                                  0     564,000,000     631,000,000     669,000,000     849,000,000
Total current liabilities                      1,500,999,936   1,580,000,000   1,671,000,064   1,806,000,000   2,535,000,064

Non-current liabilities
Long-term debt                                   871,000,000     754,000,000     686,000,000     571,000,000   2,644,999,936
Deferred taxes liabilities                       446,000,000     709,000,000     750,000,000     682,000,000     463,000,000
Deferred revenues                                          0     335,000,000     374,000,000     431,000,000     640,000,000
Pensions and other benefits                      489,000,000     123,000,000     246,000,000     270,000,000     331,000,000
Other long-term liabilities                      777,000,000     308,000,000     327,000,000     362,000,000     417,000,000
Total non-current liabilities                  2,583,000,064   2,228,999,936   2,383,000,064   2,316,000,000   4,496,000,000

Total liabilities                              4,084,000,000   3,808,999,936   4,054,000,128   4,121,999,872   7,031,000,064 

Stockholders' equity

Common stock                                      70,000,000      69,000,000       1,000,000       1,000,000       1,000,000
Additional paid-in capital                       660,000,000     538,000,000     296,000,000      73,000,000     110,000,000
Retained earnings                              1,127,000,064   1,607,000,064   2,144,000,000   2,889,999,872   3,568,000,000
Treasury stock                                             0      -2,000,000      -4,000,000    -250,000,000    -443,000,000
Accumulated other comprehensive income          -436,000,000    -183,000,000    -310,000,000    -303,000,000    -305,000,000
Total stockholders' equity                     1,420,999,936   2,028,999,936   2,127,000,064   2,411,000,064   2,931,000,064
Total liabilities and stockholders' equity     5,504,999,936   5,838,000,128   6,181,000,192   6,533,000,192   9,962,000,384

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


ALASKA AIR GROUP INC  (ALK)                 Statement of CASH FLOW

Fiscal year ends in December. USD.                   2012-12         2013-12         2014-12         2015-12         2016-12             TTM           

Cash Flows From Operating Activities
Net income                                       316,000,000     508,000,000     605,000,000     848,000,000     814,000,000     775,000,000
Depreciation & amortization                      264,000,000     270,000,000     294,000,000     320,000,000     363,000,000     357,000,000
Stock based compensation                          10,000,000      32,000,000       6,000,000      25,000,000      26,000,000      50,000,000
Accounts receivable                                        0               0    -110,000,000      47,000,000     -46,000,000               0
Income taxes payable                              94,000,000               0               0               0               0               0
Other working capital                             69,000,000     422,000,000     203,000,000     344,000,000     229,000,000     355,000,000
Other non-cash items                                       0    -251,000,000      32,000,000               0               0               0
Net cash provided by operating activities        753,000,000     981,000,000   1,030,000,000   1,584,000,000   1,386,000,000   1,536,999,936

Cash Flows From Investing Activities
Investments in property, plant, and equipmen    -518,000,000    -566,000,000    -694,000,000    -831,000,000    -678,000,000  -1,010,000,000
Acquisitions, net                                          0               0               0               0  -1,951,000,064               0
Purchases of investments                      -1,130,000,000  -1,218,000,000    -949,000,000  -1,327,000,064    -960,000,000  -1,592,999,936
Sales/Maturities of investments                1,048,000,000   1,088,999,936   1,092,000,000   1,175,000,064     962,000,000   1,392,999,936
Other investing activities                       -45,000,000      -3,000,000      10,000,000      53,000,000       5,000,000  -1,912,999,936
Net cash used for investing activities          -645,000,000    -698,000,000    -541,000,000    -930,000,000  -2,622,000,128  -3,123,000,064

Cash Flows From Financing Activities
Debt issued                                                0               0      51,000,000               0   2,044,000,000     498,000,000
Debt repayment                                  -275,000,000    -161,000,000    -119,000,000    -116,000,000    -249,000,000    -421,000,000
Common stock issued                               31,000,000      24,000,000      27,000,000               0               0               0
Repurchases of treasury stock                    -60,000,000    -159,000,000    -348,000,000    -505,000,000    -193,000,000     -50,000,000
Cash dividends paid                                        0     -28,000,000     -68,000,000    -102,000,000    -136,000,000    -145,000,000
Other financing activities                       216,000,000      -1,000,000      -5,000,000      35,000,000      25,000,000      30,000,000
Net cash provided by (used for) financing        -88,000,000    -325,000,000    -462,000,000    -688,000,000   1,491,000,064     -88,000,000

Net change in cash                                20,000,000     -42,000,000      27,000,000     -34,000,000     255,000,000  -1,674,000,000
Cash at beginning of period                      102,000,000     122,000,000      80,000,000     107,000,000      73,000,000   1,818,000,000
Cash at end of period                            122,000,000      80,000,000     107,000,000      73,000,000     328,000,000     144,000,000

Free Cash Flow
Operating cash flow                              753,000,000     981,000,000   1,030,000,000   1,584,000,000   1,386,000,000   1,536,999,936
Capital expenditure                             -518,000,000    -566,000,000    -694,000,000    -831,000,000    -678,000,000  -1,010,000,000
Free cash flow                                   235,000,000     415,000,000     336,000,000     753,000,000     708,000,000     527,000,000
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________





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Average to Current P/E Ratios
              (ALK)       Alaska Air Group Inc.

                               2012    2013    2014    2015    2016

          Annual Earnings:     2.20    3.58    4.42    6.55    6.54
Average Price During Year:    18.06   29.16   45.94   69.94   71.29

                P/E Ratio:     8.21    8.14   10.39   10.68   10.90

 Average 5-Year P/E Ratio  =   9.66
             Current Price =  64.44

Previous 5 Quarter Earnings:   2.07    0.92    0.80    2.38    2.14

           Current Annualized (Last Four Quarters) Earnings =  5.32
                                                           ________
                                 Average PE / Current PE =     0.80
                                                           --------

                                      ...a number above 1.00 is good
                                                1.00 or below is bad


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Financial Ratios

. . . . . . . . . . . . Lowest to Highest, Compared to Industry



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Market Grader

900
901 902 903 904 905 906 907 908 909 910



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Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Intrinsic Value by Discounted Cash Flow Method:

Intrinsic Value



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Book Value

Tangible Book Value:

Book Value



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Projected Earnings

Earnings Estimates
Earnings Estimates



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Research Reports

Click Here for Research Reports



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Analysts' Opinions

Analysts' Opinion 1
Analysts' Opinion 1
Analysts' Opinion 1
Analysts' Opinion 1
Analysts' Opinion 1
Analysts' Opinion 2



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Insider Activity

Insiders Chart Insider Trades
Insider Trades
Executive Compensation Executive Compensation



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Institutional Activity

Institutional Orders to Buy or Sell:

institutions 1
Ownership:

institutions 2


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Sentiment

sentiment

Zenith uses the "sentiment" score above or below 50 to award a positive or negative point in the Decision Matrix.

sentiment sentiment sentiment



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Short Interest Ratio

As the short interest rises as a percentage of average daily share volume (Days to Cover), this is considered a measure of negative sentiment. Similarly, a decrease in that percentage is considered positive sentiment.

short interest short interest


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Standard & Poor's

S&P Stock Report (Requires Adobe Acrobat Reader)



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Management's Discussion of Results of Operations Excerpts

Click Here for Management's Discussion Excerpts



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Moving Average Chart



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Right Time Study



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Channeling Potential

 
The summary below includes a value for `Degree,' which refers on a
scale of 1 to 10 the range of a channel in the period under consi-
deration compared to the total range of price movement. It also looks
for the last closing price to be within the channel, otherwise zeroed.
The `Index' is the `Degree' weighted for volatility.  Generally, the
the higher the index, the more suitable is the stock for trading as
a `rolling stock' between channel high and low points.

Results for ALASKA AIR GROUP:
Symbol? ALK
Total Months Available:  47
       Months in Cycle?   4

Months Covered by Periods:  12

Period 1           Period 2          Period 3
   H1      L1        H2      L2        H3      L3
 101.43   77.31     97.06   82.03     90.84   61.36

RANGE   = 101.43  TO   61.36            Close =  64.44
CHANNEL =  90.84  TO   82.03           Degree =   2
Volatility =  13.67%                    Index =   2
Channel Chart



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MACD Histogram Divergence

The theory is that connecting the two most recent peaks or valleys of the MACD histogram will signal the direction of the next major move.



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Intraday Chart

2 Days:



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Val Idea

2 out of 8 favorable, (negative opinion.)

Val Idea


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Stock Consultant

Stock Consultant Stock Consultant



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Point & Figure Chart

P & F Chart


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Wall Street Analyzer





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Marketspace Chart

Marketspace Chart



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Time Series Forecast

Time Series 1 Time Series 2


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Neural Network Prediction

"Neurostock" can only track long trades. Therefore its performance, as tracked by itself on stocks which are consistently falling, may not appear as good as it could if each "sell" signal were a "short sale."

Neural Chart
Heading
Neural Trades Neural Prediction



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Ultimate Trading Systems

3 out of 3 of the ultimate systems favor a downvmove.


System Below:
Short term outlook: Positive: Bright Green, Negative: Bright Red
Long term outlook: Postive: Dark Green, Negative: Dark Red.




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Recommendation

Decision Weighting Factors
FactorsWeighted Points
News + 1
Comparison + 1
Industry - 1
Bond Issue 0
Zenith Index + 1
Non-GAAP vs. GAAP Earnings - 1
Cash Flow - 1
Average to Current P/E - 1
Ratios + 1
Market Grader + 1
Intrinsic Value DCF + 1
Tangible Book Value + 1
Projected Earnings - 1
Research Reports - 1
Analysts + 1
Executive Perquisites - 1
Insider Activity - 1
Institutional Activity - 1
Management Reporting + 1
Short Interest + 1
Sentiment - 1
Standard & Poor's + 1
Moving Average - 1
Right Time Study - 1
MACD Histogram Divergence - 1
Val Idea - 1
Stock Consultant + 1
Point & Figure - 1
Wall Street Analyzer + 1
Marketspace Chart - 1
Time Series Chart + 1
Neural Network + 1
Stock Options + 1
Ultimate Trading Systems - 1
Total - 1
Place 465 shares of Alaska Air Group, Inc. (ALK) on the Active List.