07-23-2017: AerCap Holdings N.V. (AER): World's Largest Aircraft Lessor

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Recommendation

AerCap Holdings N.V.

Aercap Holdings NV could be considered an aerospace operation because it does both lease and maintain passenger planes, but it is more properly classified as a financial or leasing operation. It is in fact the largest aircraft leasing operation in the world, with 200 customers in 80 countries. It owns a fleet of over 1,000 aircraft, mostly large or medium-sized passenger jet planes. It is corporately- based in the Netherlands but has its headquarters and main facilities in Ireland.

It has the support of many researchers because of a strong balance sheet which is also reflected in a strong Zenith Index. There appears to be continuing growth potential. The company's Management Discussion section is fraught with a huge list of risk factors.

One of the company's biggest acquisitions was International Lease Financing Corporation (ILFC), which assets remain the largest portion of the business. ILFC was purchased from AIG Corporation during the subprime lending crisis era.

The industry group is moderate to weak in performance, with AER one of the strongest performers in that group. The coporation has a relatively high tangible asset value.

Analysts strongly favor this corporation. It gets penalized in some of our Decision Matrix factors because of being based in another country. That leads to lack of information on executive compensation, insider trading, and non-standard annual report formats.

The stock appears to be breaking out after being long in a consolidation pattern. Rising interest rates and the positive effect they have on financial operations may be at the base of this. The corporation fears Trumponomics which would tend to lessen advantages overseas operations enjoy over domestic ones, but it should be remembered this is an essentially international operation with the largest share of revenues coming from outside the U.S.

News on this company consists mainly of announcements of new leasing contracts from various countries and airlines around the world. There is a lot of wheeling and dealing on selling old aircraft and purchasing newer ones. Financing consists of most of the rest of the news.

A very strong stock chart pattern after being so long in a basing period is a main reason for a high Decision Matrix score. 



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Zenith Index

Under current market conditions, a Zenith Index Score of 1.20 or above is required for a positive rating on this factor. 1.21 -1.30 is considered acceptable, 1.30-1.40 is considered strong and
> 1.40 is considered exceptionally strong. Accounting statements in this section often contain mistakes, especially in earlier years' totals, but data is deemed sufficient for us to give a rating. More accurate financial statements follow in the next section.

AerCap Holdings N.V. (AER)                                Exchange: NYSE
AerCap House
65 St. Stephen's Green           Sector: Services
Dublin 2                         Industry:Air Services, Other
Ireland

AerCap Holdings N.V., an independent aircraft leasing company, engages
in the lease, financing, sale, and management of commercial aircraft and
engines in China, the United States, Ireland, and internationally. The
company provides aircraft asset management services, including
remarketing aircraft; collecting rental and maintenance rent payments,
monitoring aircraft maintenance, monitoring and enforcing contract
compliance, and accepting delivery and redelivery of aircraft; and
conducting ongoing lessee financial performance reviews. Its aircraft
asset management services also comprise periodically inspecting the
leased aircraft; coordinating technical modifications to aircraft to
meet new lessee requirements; conducting restructurings negotiations in
connection with lease defaults; repossessing aircraft; arranging and
monitoring insurance coverage; registering and de-registering aircraft;
arranging for aircraft and aircraft engine valuations; and providing
market research services. In addition, the company offers cash
management services, including treasury services, such as the financing,
refinancing, hedging, and ongoing cash management of vehicles; and
administrative services comprising accounting and secretarial services
consisting of the preparation of budgets and financial statements, and
liaising with the rating agencies. Further, it provides engine leasing;
certified aircraft engines, airframes, and engine parts; and supply
chain solutions. Additionally, the company sells airframe parts to
airlines, maintenance, repair, and overhaul service providers, as well
as aircraft parts distributors. As of December 31, 2016, it owned a
fleet of 1,022 aircraft. AerCap Holdings N.V. was founded in 1995 and is
headquartered in Dublin, Ireland.

Last Trade:  48.87                           52-Week Range:  50.24 -  35.28
Employees: 548                               Avg.Volume:   1,380,306 Shares

Corporate Governance:
P pillar scores are Audit: N/A; Board: N/A; Shareholder Rights: N/A;
         (A lower number means less governance risk.)

EPS:  5.88    Dividend Amount: $ 0.00          Yield:  0.00%
             Ex-Dividend Date: N/A             Payout Ratio:   0.00

Key Statistics:

    Trailing P/E:   8.48              Forward P/E (est.):   7.34
                                           Target Price:  58.36

Qrtly Stock Price Growth (yoy):  36.74%               Beta:   1.84
Qrtly S&P Index   Growth (yoy):  -6.20%        Short Ratio:   5.54%
    Qrtly Revenue Growth (yoy):  13.74%         Shares Out:  169850000
   Qrtly Earnings Growth (yoy):   0.00%

          Book Value:  51.20                    Debt/Equity: 320.87%
    Price/Book Value:   0.97        Operating Profit Margin:  46.63%
         Price/Sales:   1.71                  Profit Margin:  21.86%
         Market Cap:   8,477,000,000       Return on Equity:  12.65%
    Enterprise Value:               0      Return on Assets:   3.40%

    Operating Cash Flow:  3,340,000,000
         Free Cash Flow: -1,680,000,000



Annual Income Statement:                          (All numbers in thousands)
  Period Ending                             12/31/2016  12/31/2015  12/31/2014

  Total Revenue                              4,867,623   4,991,551   3,449,571
  Cost of Revenue                                    0           0           0
  Gross Profit                               4,867,623   4,991,551   3,449,571

Operating Expenses:
  Research & Development                             0           0           0
  Selling, General & Administrative            986,931     962,634     590,256
  Non-Recurring Expenses                        81,607      16,335      21,828
  Other Operating Expenses                   1,791,336   1,843,003   1,282,228
  Total Operating Expenses                           0           0           0

Operating Income or Loss                     2,007,749   2,169,579   1,555,259

Income from Continuing Operations:
  Total Other Income/Expenses Net              284,508     296,004     141,988
  Earnings Before Interest & Taxes           2,292,257   2,465,583   1,697,247
  Interest Expense                           1,091,861   1,099,884     780,349
  Income Before Taxes                        1,200,396   1,365,699     916,898
  Income Tax Expense                           173,496     189,805     137,373
  Minority Interest                             57,817      76,846      78,771

Net Income from Continuing Op.s              1,046,630   1,178,730     810,447

Non-recurring Events:
  Discontinued Operations                            0           0           0
  Extraordinary Items                                0           0           0
  Effect of Accounting Changes                       0           0           0
  Other Items                                        0           0           0
  Net Income                                 1,046,630   1,178,730     810,447
  Preferred Stock & Other Adjustments                0           0           0

Net Income Avail to Common Shares            1,046,630   1,178,730     810,447



Annual Cash Flow Statement:                   (All numbers in thousands)
  Period Ending                         12/31/2016    12/31/2015    12/31/2014

  Net Income                             1,046,630     1,178,730       810,447

Operating Activities:
  Depreciation                           1,586,152     1,544,901     1,127,261
  Adjustments to Net Income                490,492       467,579       240,839
  Changes in Accounts Recv'bls              40,065        48,468       102,547
  Changes in Liabilities                   -32,183        33,502        21,825
  Changes in Investories                         0             0             0
  Changes in other Oper'g Acts             257,190        88,418        12,704

Total Cash Flow f Operations             3,381,232     3,360,040     2,313,674

Investing Activities:
  Capital Exenditures                   -3,840,150    -3,563,656    -2,546,618
  Investments                               74,207        54,975        40,983
  Other Cash Flows fr Investing          2,434,831     1,792,776       656,845

Total Cash Flows from Investing         -1,331,112    -1,715,905    -1,848,790

Financing Activities:
  Dividends Paid                           -10,501       -10,501       -10,501
  Sale of Purchase of Stock             -1,021,119      -793,945      -793,945
  Net Borrowings                        -1,282,254        88,108       860,344
  Other Cash Flows fr Financing            -68,605        26,963       656,845

Total Cash Flows from Financing         -2,417,166      -728,291       734,057

  Effect of Exchange Rate Chg                 -605        -3,115        -4,086

Change in Cash & Cash Equiv.              -367,046       915,844     1,198,941



Annual Balance Sheets:                              (All Numbers in Thousands)
  Period Ending                          12/31/2016    12/31/2015    12/31/2014
Current Assets:
  Cash & Cash Equivalents                 2,364,627     2,822,545     2,207,757
  Short Term Investments                          0             0             0
  Net Receivables                            64,923       106,794       160,412
  Inventory                                       0             0             0
  Other Current Assets                   37,043,268    38,730,020    39,391,288
  Total Current Assets                   39,472,816    41,659,360    41,759,456

  Long-Term Investments                     755,882       469,198       347,091
  Property, Plant & Equipt                        0             0             0
  Goodwill                                        0             0             0
  Intangible Assets                         397,101       461,006       523,709
  Accumulated Amortization                        0             0             0
  Other Assets                              779,206       998,743     1,047,092
  Deferred LT Asset Charges                 215,445       161,193       190,029

Total Assets                             41,620,452    43,749,500    43,867,380

Current Liabilities:
  Accounts Payable                        4,462,091     4,790,373     4,674,108
  Current Portion LT Debt                27,717,000    29,641,864    30,402,392
  Other Current Liabilities                 859,099       891,454       848,332
  Total Current Liabilities              33,038,192    35,323,688     35,924,832

  Long Term Debt                          4,462,091     4,790,373     4,674,108
  Other Liabilities                      27,717,000    29,641,864    30,402,392
  Deferred LT Liab. Charges                 859,099       891,454       848,332
  Minority Interest                          57,817        76,846        78,771
  Negative Goodwill                          57,817        76,846        78,771

Total Liabilities                        33,096,008    35,400,536    36,003,604

Stockholder Equity:
  Misc. Options, Warrants                         0             0             0
  Redeemable Preferred Stock                      0             0             0
  Preferred Stock                                 0             0             0
  Common Stock                                2,282         2,457         2,559
  Retained Earnings                       4,509,007     3,472,132     2,310,486
  Treasury Stock                           -490,092      -146,312             0
  Capital Surplus                         4,505,019     5,026,993     5,557,627
  Other Stockhohlder Equity                  -1,769        -6,307        -6,895
  Total Stockholder Equity                8,524,447     8,348,963     7,863,777

Net Tangible Assets                       8,127,346     7,887,957     7,340,068



AerCap Holdings N.V. (AER)                  [Indices near +3.0, near zero,
                                            or < zero bear special attention.]
P/E Ratio Tests:
P/E Ratio < 28?            3.0000          P/E Ratio > 5?             1.0000
P/E Ratio Vs Growth Rate:  0.0000          Forward P/E Ratio < 28?    3.0000
Price/Sales Ratio < 2.3?   1.3450          Inventory/Sales < 5%?      1.0000
Sales < $1 Billion?        0.2054          Operating Margin < 7.5%?   0.1608

Balance Sheet Tests:
Debt/Equity < 0.40?        0.1247          Long-Term Debt Service:    3.0000
LTD Being Reduced?         0.0000          Short-Term Debt Service:   2.0994
Current Ratio > 2?         0.5974          Working Capital >= 1.5?    1.2722
Leverage Ratio < 20%?      3.0000          Debt/Assets < 1?           3.0000
Quick Ratio > 1?           3.0000          Inventory Turnover > 1?    1.0000
Share Equity Increase:     2.0827          Market Cap.< 1.5 Billion?  0.1769
                                           Intangibles < 3% Assets?   3.0000
Income Tests:
Profit Margin < 7.5%?      2.9146          EPS Annual Growth > 10%?   0.1126
Dividend Yield > 2.0%?     0.0000          EPS 3-yr Growth > 15?      0.1162
Enterprise Value/Revenue   1.7410          EPS Growth Consistent?     0.0000
Enterprise Value/EBITDA:   3.0000          Collection < 45 days?      3.0000
EPS Qrtly Growth > 10%?    0.0000          Gross Pft/Cur. LTD > 1?    0.1756
                                           Borrowing Int. Rate < 6%?  3.0000
Stock Performance Tests:
Volatility > 25%?          1.1911          % Held by Insiders < 5%?   0.3514
Beta > 1.25?               1.4720          % Held by Institut. < 50?  0.4990
50 Da MA > 200 Da MA?      0.0755          % Held by Institut. > 30?  3.0000
52-Wk Change vs. S&P 500:  2.6739          Short Ratio > 5?           1.1080
Price/Book Value < 3?      3.0000          Short % of Float > 20?     0.2950
Return on Assets > 17%?    0.2000          Average Volume > 100,000?  3.0000

Cash Flow Tests:
Oper. C.F. > Lever'd C.F: -1.9881          Positive Free Cash Flow?  -1.0000
Positive Oper. Cash Flow?  3.0000          Price to C.F.Ratio < 14?:  3.0000
                                           Cash Flow / Assets > 10%?  1.7130

AER    AerCap Holdings N.V.                Overall Zenith Index:      1.3815


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Financial Statements

AERCAP HOLDINGS NV  (AER)                   INCOME STATEMENT

Fiscal year ends in December.                        2012-12         2013-12         2014-12         2015-12         2016-12             TTM           

Revenue                                          972,520,000   1,050,065,984   3,874,766,080   5,598,662,144   5,152,131,072   5,070,939,136
Cost of revenue                                            0               0     234,478,000     311,107,008               0               0
Gross profit                                     972,520,000   1,050,065,984   3,640,288,000   5,287,555,072   5,152,131,072   5,070,939,136


Operating expenses
Sales, General and administrative                164,564,000     149,060,992     490,192,992     962,633,984     986,931,008     938,390,976
Depreciation and amortization                    357,347,008     337,729,984   1,282,227,968   1,843,003,008   1,791,335,936   1,763,266,048
Other operating expenses                         298,644,000               0      21,828,000               0               0               0
Total operating expenses                         820,555,008     486,791,008   1,794,248,960   2,805,637,120   2,778,266,880   2,701,657,088

Operating income                                 151,964,992     563,275,008   1,846,039,040   2,481,917,952   2,373,863,936   2,369,282,048
Interest Expense                                 286,019,008     226,328,992     780,348,992   1,099,884,032   1,091,860,992   1,092,977,024
Other income (expense)                           288,932,992     -26,155,000    -148,792,000     -16,335,000     -81,607,000     -34,252,000
Income before income taxes                       154,879,008     310,791,008     916,897,984   1,365,698,944   1,200,396,032   1,242,052,992
Provision for income taxes                         8,067,000      26,026,000     137,372,992     189,804,992     173,496,000     177,632,000
Other income                                      11,630,000      10,637,000      28,973,000       1,278,000      12,616,000      13,190,000
Net income from continuing ops                   158,442,000     295,401,984     808,497,984   1,177,171,968   1,039,516,032   1,077,611,008
Other                                              5,213,000      -2,992,000       1,949,000       1,558,000       7,114,000       7,112,000
Net income                                       163,655,008     292,409,984     810,446,976   1,178,729,984   1,046,630,016   1,084,722,944
Net income available to common shareholders      163,655,008     292,409,984     810,446,976   1,178,729,984   1,046,630,016   1,084,722,944

Earnings per share
Basic                                                   1.24            2.58            4.61            5.78            5.64            6.04 
Diluted                                                 1.24            2.54            4.54            5.72            5.52            5.87 

Weighted average shares outstanding
Basic                                            131,492,056     113,463,816     175,912,656     203,850,832     185,514,368     178,986,576
Diluted                                          131,492,056     115,002,456     178,684,992     206,224,128     189,682,032     184,222,016

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


AERCAP HOLDINGS NV  (AER)                   BALANCE SHEET

Fiscal year ends in December.                        2012-12         2013-12         2014-12         2015-12         2016-12             

Assets

Current assets

Cash

Total cash                                       520,400,992     295,513,984   1,490,369,024   2,403,098,112   2,035,447,040

Restricted cash                                  279,843,008     272,787,008     717,388,032     419,447,008     329,180,000
Receivables                                        6,636,000       5,203,000     160,412,000     106,794,000      64,923,000
Inventories                                                0               0               0     260,268,992               0
Total current assets                             806,880,000     573,504,000   2,368,168,960   3,189,607,936   2,429,550,080

Non-current assets

Property, plant and equipment
Gross property, plant and equipment            8,256,908,800   8,422,835,200  34,575,667,200  36,154,179,584  36,719,968,256
Accumulated Depreciation                        -992,528,000    -336,888,000  -2,591,000,064  -3,934,684,928  -5,130,678,784
Net property, plant and equipment              7,264,380,928   8,085,946,880  31,984,668,672  32,240,338,944  31,589,289,984

Equity and other investments                      93,862,000     112,380,000     347,091,008     583,908,992     874,665,024
Goodwill                                                   0               0      58,094,000      58,094,000      58,094,000
Intangible assets                                 18,100,000       9,354,000   4,371,640,832   3,541,957,120   2,456,040,960
Deferred income taxes                             79,726,000     121,663,000     190,028,992     161,192,992     215,444,992
Other long-term assets                           318,468,992     548,292,992   4,547,687,936   4,139,378,944   3,997,367,040
Total non-current assets                       7,774,538,240   8,877,636,608  41,499,209,728  40,724,869,120  39,190,904,832

Total assets                                   8,581,417,984   9,451,141,120  43,867,381,760  43,914,477,568  41,620,451,328 

Liabilities and stockholders' equity

Liabilities

Current liabilities
Capital leases                                    86,268,000               0               0               0               0
Accounts payable                                     740,000         829,000               0               0               0
Accrued liabilities                              513,780,992     574,755,008   3,513,331,968   3,496,532,992   3,037,780,992
Deferred revenues                                          0               0     391,572,992     463,167,008     463,089,984
Other current liabilities                                  0               0     485,340,000     465,292,992     382,240,992
Total current liabilities                        600,788,992     575,584,000   4,390,244,864   4,424,992,768   3,883,111,936

Non-current liabilities
Long-term debt                                 5,803,499,008   6,236,892,160  30,402,392,064  29,806,843,904  27,716,999,168
Deferred taxes liabilities                                 0      61,842,000     283,863,008     365,380,000     578,979,008
Deferred revenues                                 39,547,000      47,698,000               0               0               0
Minority interest                                    868,000       3,860,000      78,771,000      76,846,000      57,817,000
Other long-term liabilities                       14,677,000      99,893,000     848,332,032     891,454,016     859,099,008
Total non-current liabilities                  5,858,591,232   6,450,185,216  31,613,358,080  31,140,521,984  29,212,893,184

Total liabilities                              6,459,380,224   7,025,768,960  36,003,602,432  35,565,514,752  33,096,005,632 

Stockholders' equity

Common stock                                       1,193,000       1,199,000       2,559,000       2,457,000       2,282,000
Additional paid-in capital                       927,617,024     934,024,000   5,557,626,880   5,026,993,152   4,505,018,880
Retained earnings                              1,207,629,056   1,500,039,040   2,310,486,016   3,472,132,096   4,509,006,848
Treasury stock                                             0               0               0    -146,312,000    -490,092,000
Accumulated other comprehensive income           -14,401,000      -9,890,000      -6,895,000      -6,307,000      -1,769,000
Total stockholders' equity                     2,122,038,016   2,425,371,904   7,863,776,768   8,348,962,816   8,524,447,232
Total liabilities and stockholders' equity     8,581,417,984   9,451,141,120  43,867,381,760  43,914,477,568  41,620,451,328

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


AERCAP HOLDINGS NV  (AER)                   Statement of CASH FLOW

Fiscal year ends in December. USD.                   2012-12         2013-12         2014-12         2015-12         2016-12             TTM           

Cash Flows From Operating Activities
Net income                                       158,442,000     295,401,984     808,497,984   1,177,171,968   1,039,516,032   1,077,611,008
Depreciation & amortization                      368,924,000     346,476,000   1,300,194,944   1,866,045,056   1,811,171,968   1,781,995,008
Amortization of debt discount/premium and is      50,989,000      47,442,000    -172,934,000    -321,144,000    -225,020,000    -194,202,000
Investment/asset impairment charges               12,625,000      26,155,000      21,828,000      16,335,000      81,607,000      36,979,000
Deferred income taxes                              7,695,000      21,186,000     115,859,000     110,353,000     161,340,000     165,140,000
Stock based compensation                           7,127,000       9,292,000               0               0               0               0
Accounts receivable                                        0               0               0      48,468,000      40,065,000      12,219,000
Inventory                                          7,877,000               0               0               0               0               0
Other working capital                            -17,745,000       2,603,000     128,125,000     121,920,000     225,007,008     263,266,000
Other non-cash items                              48,480,000     -53,678,000      95,128,000     340,891,008     247,544,992     200,960,000
Net cash provided by operating activities        644,414,016     694,878,016   2,296,698,880   3,360,039,936   3,381,232,128   3,343,968,000

Cash Flows From Investing Activities
Investments in property, plant, and equipmen  -1,074,781,056  -1,996,158,976  -2,088,444,032  -2,772,110,080  -3,840,150,016  -4,018,827,008
Acquisitions, net                                          0               0    -195,311,008               0               0               0
Other investing activities                       716,787,008     659,100,992     451,940,000   1,056,204,992   2,509,038,080   2,523,867,904
Net cash used for investing activities          -357,993,984  -1,337,058,048  -1,831,815,040  -1,715,905,024  -1,331,111,936  -1,494,958,976

Cash Flows From Financing Activities
Debt issued                                    1,297,086,976   2,299,706,112   5,411,601,920   3,913,840,128   3,642,166,016   4,717,749,760
Debt repayment                                -1,195,170,048  -1,889,193,984  -4,826,775,040  -4,043,742,976  -5,213,724,160  -6,676,337,152
Repurchases of treasury stock                   -320,092,992               0               0               0  -1,021,118,976  -1,071,414,976
Other financing activities                        42,910,000       6,918,000     149,230,000    -598,387,968     175,511,008     189,458,000
Net cash provided by (used for) financing       -175,266,000     417,430,016     734,057,024    -728,291,008  -2,417,166,080  -2,840,544,000

Effect of exchange rate changes                   -1,834,000        -137,000      -4,086,000      -3,115,000        -605,000      -2,067,000
Net change in cash                               109,320,000    -224,887,008   1,194,855,040     912,729,024    -367,651,008    -993,601,984
Cash at beginning of period                      411,080,992     520,400,992     295,513,984   1,490,369,024   2,403,098,112   2,929,231,872
Cash at end of period                            520,400,992     295,513,984   1,490,369,024   2,403,098,112   2,035,447,040   1,935,629,952

Free Cash Flow
Operating cash flow                              644,414,016     694,878,016   2,296,698,880   3,360,039,936   3,381,232,128   3,343,968,000
Capital expenditure                           -1,074,781,056  -1,996,158,976  -2,088,444,032  -2,772,110,080  -3,840,150,016  -4,018,827,008
Free cash flow                                  -430,367,008  -1,301,281,024     208,255,008     587,929,984    -458,918,016    -674,859,008
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________





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Average to Current P/E Ratios
              (AER)     AerCap Holdings N.V.

                               2012    2013    2014    2015    2016

          Annual Earnings:     1.24    2.54    4.54    5.72    5.52
Average Price During Year:    12.06   17.02   42.77   43.67   38.50

                P/E Ratio:     9.72    6.70    9.42    7.63    6.98

 Average 5-Year P/E Ratio  =   8.09
             Current Price =  49.91

Previous 5 Quarter Earnings:   1.13    1.22    1.22    2.01    1.48

           Current Annualized (Last Four Quarters) Earnings =  4.71
                                                           ________
                                 Average PE / Current PE =     0.76
                                                           --------

                                      ...a number above 1.00 is good
                                                1.00 or below is bad


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Financial Ratios

. . . . . . . . . . . . 1 = Highest , 10 = Lowest



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Market Grader

900
901 902 903 904 905 906 907 908 909 910



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Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Intrinsic Value by Discounted Cash Flow Method:

Intrinsic Value



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Book Value

Tangible Book Value:

Book Value



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Projected Earnings

Earnings Estimates
Earnings Estimates



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Research Reports

Click Here for Research Reports



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Analysts' Opinions

Analysts' Opinion 1
Analysts' Opinion 1
Analysts' Opinion 1
Analysts' Opinion 1
Analysts' Opinion 1
Analysts' Opinion 2



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Insider Activity

Insiders Chart Insider Trades
Insider Trades
Executive Compensation Executive Compensation



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Institutional Activity

Institutional Orders to Buy or Sell:

institutions 1
Ownership:

institutions 2


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Sentiment

sentiment

Zenith uses the "sentiment" score above or below 50 to award a positive or negative point in the Decision Matrix.

sentiment sentiment sentiment



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Short Interest Ratio

As the short interest rises as a percentage of average daily share volume (Days to Cover), this is considered a measure of negative sentiment. Similarly, a decrease in that percentage is considered positive sentiment.

short interest short interest


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Standard & Poor's

S&P Stock Report (Requires Adobe Acrobat Reader)



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Management's Discussion of Results of Operations Excerpts

Click Here for Management's Discussion Excerpts



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Moving Average Chart



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Right Time Study



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Channeling Potential

 
The summary below includes a value for `Degree,' which refers on a
scale of 1 to 10 the range of a channel in the period under consi-
deration compared to the total range of price movement. It also looks
for the last closing price to be within the channel, otherwise zeroed.
The `Index' is the `Degree' weighted for volatility.  Generally, the
the higher the index, the more suitable is the stock for trading as
a `rolling stock' between channel high and low points.

Results for AERCAP HOLDINGS:
Symbol? AER
Total Months Available:  32
       Months in Cycle?   4

Months Covered by Periods:  12

Period 1           Period 2          Period 3
   H1      L1        H2      L2        H3      L3
  43.69   35.28     49.66   41.34     48.56   42.35

RANGE   =  49.66  TO   35.28            Close =  48.87
CHANNEL =  43.69  TO   42.35           Degree =   1
Volatility =   2.74%                    Index =   0
Channel Chart



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MACD Histogram Divergence

The theory is that connecting the two most recent peaks or valleys of the MACD histogram will signal the direction of the next major move.



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Intraday Chart

2 Days:



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Val Idea

5 out of 8 favorable, (positive opinion.)

Val Idea


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Stock Consultant

Stock Consultant Stock Consultant



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Point & Figure Chart

P & F Chart


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Wall Street Analyzer






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Marketspace Chart

Marketspace Chart



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Time Series Forecast

Time Series 1 Time Series 2


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Neural Network Prediction

"Neurostock" can only track long trades. Therefore its performance, as tracked by itself on stocks which are consistently falling, may not appear as good as it could if each "sell" signal were a "short sale."

Neural Chart
Heading
Neural Trades Neural Prediction



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Ultimate Trading Systems

3 out of 3 of the ultimate systems favor an upmove.


System Below:
Short term outlook: Positive: Bright Green, Negative: Bright Red
Long term outlook: Postive: Dark Green, Negative: Dark Red.




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Recommendation

Decision Weighting Factors
FactorsWeighted Points
News + 1
Comparison - 1
Industry - 1
Bond Issue + 1
Zenith Index + 1
Non-GAAP vs. GAAP Earnings - 1
Cash Flow - 1
Average to Current P/E - 1
Ratios + 1
Market Grader + 1
Intrinsic Value DCF - 1
Tangible Book Value - 1
Projected Earnings + 1
Research Reports + 1
Analysts + 1
Executive Perquisites + 1
Insider Activity - 1
Institutional Activity - 1
Management Reporting - 1
Short Interest + 1
Sentiment + 1
Standard & Poor's - 1
Moving Average + 1
Right Time Study + 1
MACD Histogram Divergence + 1
Val Idea + 1
Stock Consultant + 1
Point & Figure + 1
Wall Street Analyzer + 1
Marketspace Chart + 1
Time Series Chart + 1
Neural Network - 1
Stock Options + 1
Ultimate Trading Systems + 1
Total + 10
Place 600 shares of Aercap Holdings NV (AER) on the Active List.