07-05-2020: Atlas Air Worldwide, Inc. (AAWW): Logistics Is Tricky After the Pandemic

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Recommendation

Atlas Air Worldwide, Inc.

Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings, Inc. (AAWW) is a large air cargo shipper with a large fleet of aircraft. The pandemic has both hurt and benefitted parts of the airline industry. Certainly passenger revenues have declined preciptiously, threatening bankruptcy for some airlines. But as stores close, more and more shopping is done on line, and that benefits shippers like AAWW.

AAWW suffered a massive loss in 2019. It was not due to the pandemic. It was due to trade tensions and tariffs, reducing demand for air shipments worldwide, and also due to a writedown on some older aircraft assets. AAWW appears to have the capability to bounce back from such disappointing results, but researchers and analysts are both skeptical and generally negative.

From what we see, AAWW is not exactly in the best financial position to weather storms. We would question some of the management judgments, but nonetheless the stock appears to be outperforming most of its peers. Chart patterns suggest the stock reacts well to Bollinger Bands with a capability to bounce back from any declines once momentum starts to build. An example of management judgment is an attempt to shift a bit away from cargo to passenger service and build up that end of the business, not an auspicious time to be doing that.

A number of airline stocks have appeared attractive for us to review because that industry has been particularly hard hit by the pandemic and has had volatile declines and "overshoots" with respect to valuation, both good and bad. This affords trading opportunities.

The company operates in four principal segments, shipping in planes under its own name, as well as subsidiaries Southern and Polar Air, and also provides maintenance services. It has demonstrated the capacity to grow.

It has a lot of global interdependencies which could cause unpredictable results, such as investments in Hong Kong which currently is uncertain as to how it will treat Americans in future.

Another factor not to be ignored is presence of mega-customer Amazon in AAWW's client list, where AAWW is forming its own shipping company and shifting business away from other carriers.

The company has a good website and CEO Letter to Shareholders, showing some considerable shareholder concern.

One factor dominating the news has been a series of negotiations with the Teamsters Union which greatly affects salary negotiations and company operating conditions, including safety measures.

Institutions are net acquirers and Dimension Fund Advisors is prominent among them which we think is a good sign.



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Zenith Index

Under current market conditions, a Zenith Index Score of 1.20 or above is required for a positive rating on this factor. 1.21 -1.30 is considered acceptable, 1.30-1.40 is considered strong and
> 1.40 is considered exceptionally strong. Accounting statements in this section often contain mistakes, especially in earlier years' totals, but data is deemed sufficient for us to give a rating. More accurate financial statements follow in the next section. However, we have been relying on Yahoo for data and it is clear Yahoo is completely undependable and run by incompetent programmers who are constatnly buggering up their site, so the zero items represent our inability to access the mess Yahoo made of its site.

Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings, Inc. (AAWW)                 Exchange: Nasdaq
2000 Westchester Avenue
Purchase, NY 10577               Sector: Industrials
United States                    Industry: Airports & Air Services

Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides
outsourced aircraft and aviation operating services. It operates through
three segments: ACMI, Charter, and Dry Leasing. The company offers
outsourced cargo and passenger aircraft operating solutions, includingcontractual service arrangements, such as the provision of aircraft; and
value-added services, including crew, maintenance, and insurance to
aircraft and other customers. It also provides cargo and passenger
aircraft charter services to the U.S. Military Air Mobility Command,
charter brokers, freight forwarders, direct shippers, airlines, sports
teams and fans, and private charter customers; and aircraft and engines
dry leasing services. In addition, the company offers administrative and
management support services, and flight simulator training services. It
also serves express delivery providers, e-commerce retailers, and
airlines. The company has operations in Africa, Asia, Australia, Europe,
the Middle East, North America, and South America. Atlas Air Worldwide
Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in Purchase, New
York.

Last Trade:  43.88                           52-Week Range:  47.70 -  14.97
Employees: 3,587                             Avg.Volume:     649,446 Shares

Corporate Governance:
Pillar scores are Audit: 1; Board: 4; Shareholder Rights: 2; Compensation: 6.
         (A lower number means less governance risk.)

EPS: -9.28    Dividend Amount: $ 0.00          Yield:  0.00%
             Ex-Dividend Date: N/A             Payout Ratio:   0.00

Key Statistics:

    Trailing P/E:   0.00                      Target Price:  55.17

Qrtly Stock Price Growth (yoy):   3.69%               Beta:   1.68
Qrtly S&P Index   Growth (yoy):  -5.30%        Short Ratio:   4.68%
    Qrtly Revenue Growth (yoy):  52.00%         Shares Out:  26130000
   Qrtly Earnings Growth (yoy):   0.00%

          Book Value:  70.15                    Debt/Equity: 159.95%
    Price/Book Value:   0.58        Operating Profit Margin:   7.12%
         Price/Sales:   0.39                  Profit Margin:  -8.88%
         Market Cap:   1,167,000,000       Return on Equity: -12.41%
    Enterprise Value:   3,760,000,000      Return on Assets:   2.11%

    Operating Cash Flow:        300,344
         Free Cash Flow:        300,344



Annual Income Statement:                          (All numbers in thousands)
  Period Ending                             12/31/2019  12/31/2018  12/31/2017

  Total Revenue                              2,739,189   2,677,724   2,156,460
  Cost of Revenue                            2,147,582   2,020,657   1,596,560
  Gross Profit                                 591,607     657,067     559,900

Operating Expenses:
  Research & Development                             0           0           0
  Selling, General & Administrative                  0           0           0
  Total Operating Expenses                     404,732     362,040     313,342

Operating Income or Loss                       186,875     295,027     246,558

Income from Continuing Operations:
  Total Other Income/Expenses Net             -545,873     122,288     -16,897
  Interest Expense                            -113,760    -107,941     -86,289
  Income Before Taxes                         -472,758     309,374     143,372
  Income Tax Expense                          -179,645      38,727     -80,966

Net Income from Continuing Op.s                      0           0           0

Non-recurring Events:
  Extraordinary Items                          293,113    -270,567    -223,473
  Net Income                                  -293,113     270,567     223,473

Net Income Avail to Common Shares             -293,113     270,567     223,473



Annual Cash Flow Statement:                   (All numbers in thousands)
  Period Ending                         12/31/2019    12/31/2018    12/31/2017

  Net Income                                     0             0             0

Operating Activities:
  Depreciation                                   0             0             0
  Changes in Accounts Recv'bls                   0             0             0
  Changes in Liabilities                         0             0             0
  Changes in Inventories                         0             0             0
  Changes in other Oper'g Acts                   0             0             0

Total Cash Flow f Operations               300,344       425,580       331,719

Investing Activities:
  Capital Exenditures                     -347,790      -713,816      -546,019
  Investments                              215,992       606,625       770,568
  Other Cash Flows fr Investing             -9,370       -10,769       -10,613

Total Cash Flows from Investing                  0             0             0

Financing Activities:
  Dividends Paid                                 0             0             0
  Sale of Purchase of Stock                      0             0             0
  Other Cash Flows fr Financing                  0             0       -10,613

Total Cash Flows from Financing                  0             0             0

Change in Cash & Cash Equiv.               -47,446      -288,236      -214,300



Annual Balance Sheets:                              (All Numbers in Thousands)
  Period Ending                          12/31/2019    12/31/2018    12/31/2017
Current Assets:
  Cash & Cash Equivalents                 5,534,792     4,955,462     4,247,379
  Short Term Investments                          0             0             0
  Net Receivables                                 0             0             0
  Inventory                                       0             0             0
  Other Current Assets                            0             0             0
  Total Current Assets                    4,272,969     3,798,842     3,184,001
  Long-Term Investments                           0             0             0
  Property, Plant & Equipt                        0             0             0
  Goodwill                                        0             0             0
  Intangible Assets                               0             0             0
  Other Assets                                    0             0             0

Total Assets                                      0             0             0

Current Liabilities:
  Accounts Payable                                0             0             0
  Current Portion LT Debt                         0             0             0
  Other Current Liabilities                       0             0             0
  Total Current Liabilities               3,466,828     3,165,606      2,730,041

  Long Term Debt                                  0             0             0
  Other Liabilities                               0             0             0

Total Liabilities                         2,469,840     2,226,999     1,851,411

Stockholder Equity:
  Common Stock                                    0             0             0
  Retained Earnings                               0             0             0
  Capital Surplus                                 0             0             0
  Total Stockholder Equity                2,067,964     1,789,856     1,517,338


Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings, Inc. (AAWW)   [Indices near +3.0, near zero,
                                            or < zero bear special attention.]
P/E Ratio Tests:
P/E Ratio < 28?            0.0000          P/E Ratio > 5?             0.0000
P/E Ratio Vs Growth Rate:  0.0000          Forward P/E Ratio < 28?    0.0000
Price/Sales Ratio < 2.3?   3.0000          Inventory/Sales < 5%?      1.0000
Sales < $1 Billion?        0.3651          Operating Margin < 7.5%?   1.0534

Balance Sheet Tests:
Debt/Equity < 0.40?        0.2501          Long-Term Debt Service:    3.0000
LTD Being Reduced?         0.0000          Short-Term Debt Service:   0.0000
Current Ratio > 2?         0.6163          Working Capital >= 1.5?    1.2332
Leverage Ratio < 20%?      3.0000          Debt/Assets < 1?           3.0000
Quick Ratio > 1?           3.0000          Inventory Turnover > 1?    1.0000
Share Equity Increase:     2.3350          Market Cap.< 1.5 Billion?  1.2853
                                           Intangibles < 3% Assets?   3.0000
Income Tests:
Profit Margin < 7.5%?     -1.1840          EPS Annual Growth > 10%?  -0.0923
Dividend Yield > 2.0%?     0.0000          EPS 3-yr Growth > 15?     -0.1144
Enterprise Value/Revenue   0.4240          EPS Growth Consistent?     0.0000
Enterprise Value/EBITDA:  -3.0000          Collection < 45 days?      1.0000
EPS Qrtly Growth > 10%?    0.0000          Gross Pft/Cur. LTD > 1?    3.0000
                                           Borrowing Int. Rate < 6%?  3.0000
Stock Performance Tests:
Volatility > 25%?          2.7447          % Held by Insiders < 5%?   2.1552
Beta > 1.25?               1.3440          % Held by Institut. < 50?  0.4898
50 Da MA > 200 Da MA?      0.7165          % Held by Institut. > 30?  3.0000
52-Wk Change vs. S&P 500:  0.0710          Short Ratio > 5?           0.9360
Price/Book Value < 3?      3.0000          Short % of Float > 20?     0.7655
Return on Assets > 17%?    0.1241          Average Volume > 100,000?  3.0000

Cash Flow Tests:
Oper. C.F. > Lever'd C.F:  1.0000          Positive Free Cash Flow?   3.0000
Positive Oper. Cash Flow?  3.0000          Price to C.F.Ratio < 14?:  3.0000
                                           Cash Flow / Assets > 10%?  0.0000

AAWW   Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings, Inc.  Overall Zenith Index:      1.1937


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Financial Statements

ATLAS AIR WORLDWIDE HOLDINGS INC  (AAWW)    INCOME STATEMENT

Fiscal year ends in December. USD in thousand        2015-12         2016-12         2017-12         2018-12         2019-12             TTM           

Revenue                                            1,822,659       1,839,627       2,156,460       2,677,724       2,739,189       2,703,008
Cost of revenue                                    1,343,400       1,368,635       1,596,560       2,020,657       2,147,582       2,108,547
Gross profit                                         479,259         470,992         559,900         657,067         591,607         594,461


Operating expenses
Sales, General and administrative                    102,755         127,748         144,699         166,487         189,211         186,573
Restructuring, merger and acquisition                      0          22,071           4,509           2,111           4,164           2,158
Other operating expenses                             234,073         120,662         164,134         193,442         211,357         213,382
Total operating expenses                             336,828         270,481         313,342         362,040         404,732         402,113

Operating income                                     142,431         200,511         246,558         295,027         186,875         192,348
Interest Expense                                      95,729          81,337          92,298         114,651         118,056         117,248
Other income (expense)                               -63,922         -29,758         -10,888         128,998        -541,577        -490,855
Income before taxes                                  -17,220          89,416         143,372         309,374        -472,758        -415,755
Provision for income taxes                           -24,506          46,791         -80,966          38,727        -179,645        -175,705
Net income from continuing operations                  7,286          42,625         224,338         270,647        -293,113        -240,050
Net income from discontinuing ops                          0          -1,109            -865             -80               0               0
Net income                                             7,286          41,516         223,473         270,567        -293,113        -240,050
Net income available to common shareholders            7,286          41,516         223,473         270,567        -293,113        -240,050

Earnings per share
Basic                                                   0.29            1.67            8.85           10.60          -11.35           -9.30 
Diluted                                                 0.29            1.65            8.64            5.22          -11.35           -9.30 

Weighted average shares outstanding
Basic                                                 24,833          24,843          25,241          25,542          25,828          25,886
Diluted                                               25,018          25,120          25,854          28,281          25,828          25,886

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


ATLAS AIR WORLDWIDE HOLDINGS INC  (AAWW)    BALANCE SHEET

Fiscal year ends in December. USD in thousand        2015-12         2016-12         2017-12         2018-12         2019-12             

Assets

Current assets

Cash

Short-term investments                                 5,098           4,313          13,604          15,624             879
Total cash                                           431,048         128,203         294,413         237,125         103,908

Receivables                                          164,308         166,486         194,478         269,320         290,119
Prepaid expenses                                      43,600          49,021          87,640         112,146         228,103
Other current assets                                  12,981          14,360          11,055          11,240          10,401
Total current assets                                 651,937         358,070         587,586         629,831         632,531

Non-current assets

Property, plant and equipment
Gross property, plant and equipment                3,785,413       4,109,628       4,704,350       5,322,589       5,262,242
Accumulated Depreciation                            -450,217        -568,946        -701,249        -860,354        -977,883
Net property, plant and equipment                  3,335,196       3,540,682       4,003,101       4,462,235       4,284,359

Equity and other investments                          37,604          27,951          15,371             635               0
Goodwill                                                   0          40,361          40,361          40,361          40,361
Intangible assets                                     58,483          75,668          66,124          57,328          36,495
Other long-term assets                                81,183         204,647         242,919         344,402         391,895
Total non-current assets                           3,512,466       3,889,309       4,367,876       4,904,961       4,753,110

Total assets                                       4,164,403       4,247,379       4,955,462       5,534,792       5,385,641 

Liabilities and stockholders' equity

Liabilities

Current liabilities
Short-term debt                                      161,811         184,748         218,013         264,835         395,781
Capital leases                                             0               0               0               0         141,973
Accounts payable                                      93,278          59,543          65,740          87,229          79,683
Accrued liabilities                                  210,184         228,759         344,820         334,631         345,013
Deferred revenues                                     12,702          10,298          20,986          26,584          26,357
Other current liabilities                             70,252          81,830          89,037         104,454         110,355
Total current liabilities                            548,227         565,178         738,596         817,733       1,099,162

Non-current liabilities
Long-term debt                                     1,739,496       1,666,663       2,008,986       2,205,005       1,984,902
Capital leases                                             0               0               0               0         392,832
Deferred taxes liabilities                           286,928         298,165         214,694         256,970          74,040
Other long-term liabilities                          135,569         200,035         203,330         187,120          42,526
Total non-current liabilities                      2,161,993       2,164,863       2,427,010       2,649,095       2,494,300

Total liabilities                                  2,710,220       2,730,041       3,165,606       3,466,828       3,593,462 

Stockholders' equity

Common stock                                             290             296             301             306             310
Additional paid-in capital                           625,244         657,082         715,735         736,035         761,715
Retained earnings                                  1,006,556       1,048,072       1,271,545       1,539,956       1,246,843
Treasury stock                                      -171,844        -183,119        -193,732        -204,501        -213,871
Accumulated other comprehensive income                -6,063          -4,993          -3,993          -3,832          -2,818
Total stockholders' equity                         1,454,183       1,517,338       1,789,856       2,067,964       1,792,179
Total liabilities and stockholders' equity         4,164,403       4,247,379       4,955,462       5,534,792       5,385,641

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


ATLAS AIR WORLDWIDE HOLDINGS INC  (AAWW)    Statement of CASH FLOW

Fiscal year ends in December. USD in thousand        2015-12         2016-12         2017-12         2018-12         2019-12             TTM           

Cash Flows From Operating Activities
Net income                                             7,286          41,516         223,473         270,567        -293,113        -240,050
Depreciation & amortization                          147,604         168,721         197,463         265,553         316,821         312,185
Amortization of debt discount/premium and is          -4,651          -1,277          -1,172            -888            -244            -119
Deferred income taxes                                -25,898          47,381         -81,330          42,580        -180,553        -177,952
Stock based compensation                              16,181          32,724          22,319          20,305          25,189          23,428
Change in working capital                            144,577         -70,540         -42,007         -58,809        -137,174        -113,920
Accounts receivable                                    2,016          22,974         -33,201         -74,038         -22,524         -15,695
Prepaid expenses                                      23,171         -29,455         -67,341         -57,081         -66,843         -30,010
Other working capital                                119,390         -64,059          58,535          72,310         -47,807         -68,215
Other non-cash items                                  87,788          13,657          12,973        -113,728         569,418         514,850
Net cash provided by operating activities            372,887         232,182         331,719         425,580         300,344         318,422

Cash Flows From Investing Activities
Investments in property, plant, and equipmen        -227,048        -316,993        -458,464        -599,401        -214,236        -182,904
Property, plant, and equipment reductions             25,441               0               0               0          10,300          54,410
Acquisitions, net                                          0        -105,392               0          -1,050          -2,028               0
Sales/Maturities of investments                       80,302          11,714           4,462          13,604          15,624          11,544
Other investing activities                           -43,740         -46,717         -87,555        -114,415         -95,421        -113,289
Net cash used for investing activities              -165,045        -457,388        -541,557        -701,262        -285,761        -230,239

Cash Flows From Financing Activities
Debt issued                                          568,033         103,492         770,568         606,625         215,992         435,269
Debt repayment                                      -604,977        -179,153        -357,093        -385,015        -344,674        -447,411
Common stock repurchased                             -26,522         -11,275         -10,613         -10,769          -9,370          -4,015
Other financing activities                           -17,027          11,461         -39,410           5,718           4,158            -911
Net cash provided by (used for) financing            -80,493         -75,475         363,452         216,559        -133,894         -17,068

Net change in cash                                   127,349        -300,681         153,614         -59,123        -119,311          71,115
Cash at beginning of period                          298,601         438,931         138,250         291,864         232,741         164,504
Cash at end of period                                425,950         138,250         291,864         232,741         113,430         235,619

Free Cash Flow
Operating cash flow                                  372,887         232,182         331,719         425,580         300,344         318,422
Capital expenditure                                 -272,088        -363,710        -546,019        -713,816        -347,790        -294,165
Free cash flow                                       100,799        -131,528        -214,300        -288,236         -47,446          24,257
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________




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Average to Current P/E Ratios
              (AAWW)     Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings

                               2015    2016    2017    2018    2019

          Annual Earnings:     0.29    1.65    8.64    5.21  -11.35
Average Price During Year:    45.74   40.86   56.47   62.09   39.04

                P/E Ratio:   157.72   24.76    6.54   11.92    3.44

 Average 5-Year P/E Ratio  =  40.87
             Current Price =  40.5

Previous 5 Quarter Earnings:  -1.15    1.61    2.32  -15.86    0.90

          Current Annualized (Last Four Quarters) Earnings = -12.64
                                                           ________
                                 Average PE / Current PE =   -12.76
                                                           --------

                                      ...a number above 1.00 is good
                                                1.00 or below is bad


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Intrinsic Value (DCF)

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Sentiment

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Channeling Potential

 
The summary below includes a value for `Degree,' which refers on a
scale of 1 to 10 the range of a channel in the period under consi-
deration compared to the total range of price movement. It also looks
for the last closing price to be within the channel, otherwise zeroed.
The `Index' is the `Degree' weighted for volatility.  Generally, the
the higher the index, the more suitable is the stock for trading as
a `rolling stock' between channel high and low points.

Results for ATLAS AIR WORLDWIDE:
Symbol? AAWW
Total Months Available:  25
       Months in Cycle?   4

Months Covered by Periods:  12

Period 1           Period 2          Period 3
   H1      L1        H2      L2        H3      L3
  46.84   20.61     33.85   20.84     47.70   14.97

RANGE   =  47.70  TO   14.97            Close =  39.08
CHANNEL =  33.85  TO   20.84           Degree =   4
Volatility =  33.29%                    Index =  13
Channel Chart



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MACD Histogram Divergence

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2 Days:



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2 out of 8 favorable, (negative opinion.)

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Neural Network Prediction

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Ultimate Trading Systems

3 out of 3 of the ultimate systems favor an upmove.


System Below:
Short term outlook: Positive: Bright Green, Negative: Bright Red
Long term outlook: Postive: Dark Green, Negative: Dark Red.




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Recommendation

Decision Weighting Factors
FactorsWeighted Points
News + 1
Comparison - 1
Industry - 1
Bond Issue + 1
Zenith Index - 1
Non-GAAP vs. GAAP Earnings + 1
Cash Flow + 1
Average to Current P/E - 1
Ratios - 1
Intrinsic Value DCF - 1
Fair Value Estimator - 1
Projected Earnings - 1
Research Reports - 1
Analysts + 1
Executive Perquisites - 1
Insider Activity - 1
Institutional Activity - 1
Management Reporting + 1
Short Interest + 1
Sentiment + 1
Standard & Poor's - 1
MACD Histogram Divergence - 1
Val Idea - 1
Stock Consultant - 1
Point & Figure + 1
Wall Street Analyzer - 1
Marketspace Chart - 1
Time Series Chart + 1
Neural Network - 1
Stock Options + 1
Ultimate Trading Systems + 1
Total - 7
Place 675 shares of Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings, Inc.(AAWW) on the Active List.